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I think that is going to happen eventually but it will take a while. A diesel Hybrid is going to cost a lot of money. You figure a typical diesel sedan will cost at least 1,000 dollars more then a similar gas sedan. Just to use the example of the last Jetta TDI diesel it costs about 2,000 dollars more then a Jetta 2.5 value edition.
In my area Gas is a little over 3.00 dollars a gallon and diesel is about 2.75. At 15,000 miles a year you will make up the 2,000 dollar price difference in about four years. This is using the highway rating of 30 mpg for the 2.5 Jetta and the 41 mpg rating for the TDI Jetta.
How much more will a diesel hybrid cost over a regular diesel? Are we talking another 2,000 or more dollars? If we are then the gas mileage better be double or more then double to make it at all palatable.
Even if Toyota had to charge $27K for a base model, I think it would sell.
Getting a "real world" 58 miles per gallon would make that $4500 premium disappear pretty fast.
I'll raise the bar and say that the process of using a boat for recreation and towing a boat is a large waste of gasoline today. Due primarily to the drag of water, the equivalent mpg is generally in the 1 mpg region and if you aren't a vendor in the fishing business, this should be heavily regulated in my opinion.
BTW, I have nothing against motorcycles. I rode one while in college. If they do emit a lot of particulate pollution that should be dealt with. From a safety perspective I believe that is an individual decision to make. I'm very much opposed to the "nanny government" that so many embrace.
The United States ranks at the bottom of industrialized countries in vehicle fuel-economy standards, but would jump far up the list if legislation to boost mileage requirements clears Congress and is signed into law, according to a report released on Monday.
The report comes as the House of Representatives will debate energy legislation this week, and some lawmakers want to tack on language to significantly increase the miles American cars and trucks travel on a gallon of gasoline.
U.S. fuel-efficiency requirements for passenger cars have been stuck at 27.5 miles per gallon since 1985, while the standard for pickups, minivans and other light trucks will increase from 20.7 mpg in 2004 to 24 mpg in 2011.
That puts the United States behind Canada, South Korea, Australia, China, members of the European Union and Japan in vehicle fuel economy, according to the report from the International Council on Clean Transportation. A copy of the report was obtained by Reuters.
The group is made up of transportation and air-quality experts from around the world that promote fuel-efficient vehicles. Cars and trucks that burn less gasoline would also spew fewer carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming.
"We're weakest in the world, and therefore we use more gas and we emit more carbon dioxide emissions," said Drew Kodjak, the report's co-author and executive director of the group.
I also think the "chinks in the legislative and regulatory armors" are really starting to show. I also think they are afraid of the economic implications.
There is nothing simple about it.
If it were simple, don't you think the most advanced nation in the world, which contains some of the brightest scholars and scientists in the world, would have figured out all the tricky issues by NOW?
Of course we would have done so.
Eash of the economic, social, scientific, and political factors play a part. You can't solve one of the issues and solve the problem - it takes solving ALL the problems.
And you are never going to get all the players lined up in a row all saying the same thing.
That's why you do it piecemeal, in steps, like it has been done. This year, require ULSD. Next year, allow clean diesel cars. The following year, do whatever and whatever and so on and so on.
At some point, the best compromises between all the factions will be reached and progress can be declared.
Cleaner air, along with lessened dependence on oil, as in Rome, cannot be built in a day.
Nice rhetorical question!! However there is a practical answer. During this very same period, they all stood by as the myriad of high to highest sulfur fuel products were being burnt UNMITIGATED!!! That is the good news, the bad news is they are still standing by with the engines of all than legislative regulatory and brain power on in idle.
It took time for the regulations to pass. That was the delay. No one intentionally delayed anything.
Like I said in my last post - these things DO TAKE TIME.
And CARB just passed off-road diesel regulations too. Read all about it on Google News today.
I am sure you are not arguing that I didn't notice that time has passed, are you?
If you look at how demand is increasing for oil and gasoline, as evidenced by the $78/barrel price today, and you consider how many years it would take to change the makeup of the majority of vehicles on the road, and that we are close to or at Peak Oil production; what you can picture is that demand is going to be high relative to supply no matter what "fixes" to what "problems" you implement.
I see a world where the number of people - % of the global population, who can afford oil and gasoline continues to decline every year. Or instead of buying 750 gal/year you can't afford to buy as much each year. Isn't that happening now to people as some are forced to cutback to put food on the table instead?
It was actually several days ago. They hit the off road equipment and left the millions of on-road trucks unscathed. It has little or nothing to do with cars that have been cleaner than off road vehicles for decades. It was so much easier for CARB to point at the VW and MB diesels and say ooooooh they are causing pollution. CARB is a bunch of disingenuous slobs. If our governator was truly the Terminator he would have gotten rid of the whole worthless lot at CARB. Instead he listened to his cronies in Hollywood, and we are stuck with using more OIL than EVER before.
You may not have stood by as you ride a segway and a hybrid. Our states and Federal government have done little or nothing since Nixon in the early 1970s.
Last winter, gas prices went sky high even though demand was down. The excuse was a number of refineries were down thus limiting the ability to produce gas which lead to low supplies. Gas prices did come down throughout the winter.
This spring, gas prices reached record levels as we inched closer to Memorial Day. We were all talking $4.00/gallon gas this summer. The excuse was refinery switchover to summer gas and some refineries were down for maintenance. Gas inventories were low. Also oil prices were high...again.
Right before Memorial Day, gas prices started dropping even though oil prices were high and gas inventory was still low. Gas prices have continued to drop despite the fact that we are in peak driving season (demand is high) and oil prices are near record levels. And to top it off experts and government agencies are predicting the price of gas to average $2.54 by November (How do they know this?). To top it off gas inventory are higher even though we are in peak driving season. How did the refineries catch up during peak driving season? The excuse this time is "disconnect", which is the price of oil has not dropped to reflect inventory. OK?
I like to think of myself as a somewhat intelligent person but I am having a hard time understanding how gas prices are determined. it seems like there is always an excuse to explain these strange fluctuations in gas prices. And some of them contradict what they had been feeding us after Katrina. Also it doesn't help that the oil companies are raking in billion dollar profits each quarter. Some have said developing gas prices is very complicated. Of course it was not this complicated 6 years ago as we did not experience these fluctuations.
I started this thread in hopes someone can explain how gas prices are determined and its relationship to oil prices. I want to know about production, distribution, refineries, etc. I'm not an economist but I do understand how pricing is generally determined for businesses. Right now, none of this makes sense to me.
But the lack up ups and downs due to someone manipulating pricing is obvious.
I submit a 1-year chart of Nashville vs Dayton.
Red is Nashville
Blue is Dayton (notice the almost weekly ups and downs)
Green is crude oil price.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
But that chart makes quite a bit of sense. if you notice, its durring the spring when all the refinery problems were occuring that the prices moved farthers from the price of crude. As refinery problems eased, the gap narrored, then reversed. nothing but good old fashioned supply and demand at work there. and keep in mind, those are retail prices, not wholesale.
Big Oil did not manipulate U.S. gasoline prices (Reuters)
One commissioner didn't agree with the FTC report and believes that the oil companies were profiteering at the expense of consumers.
In order for supply and demand to have an effect, the underlying market has to be free of corrupt influence, and the oil market is not. A cartel of producers colludes to fix the price. They use the futures markets as an excuse, but the truth is the the cartel and the traders are all on the same page. The commodity they manipulate costs the same amount of money all the time, but they set different prices everywhere.
Additionally, they often raise the price based solely on RUMORS, such as the "threat of a hurricane" that's only a tropical storm in the east Atlantic, or the "fear of terrorism in Nigeria" when no such condition exists. More often than not, industry "insiders" float these rumors, then the companies and traders pretend to react to them. It's a self-perpetuating scam.
So, no, supply and demand have almost nothing to do with the price of gasoline. Those theoretical factors only affect free markets; that is, ones in which consumers have a choice where and even whether to buy a product.
I explained why the above chart doesn't mean much. 1. those are retail prices, not wholesale. and 2. gasoline and crude oil are two totaly different and separate things.
In order for supply and demand to have an effect, the underlying market has to be free of corrupt influence, and the oil market is not. A cartel of producers colludes to fix the price. They use the futures markets as an excuse
yes, there is corruption in the oil market, but not the gas market, at least not in the US. It impossible for even the oil cartel to fix the price. they can manipulate it by controling the supply though. The futures market is not an "excuse", but rather the one thing that helps keep price manipulation nothing more than conspiracy fodder. The thing about the comodities futures market is, you have to take delivery of the product, or sell your contract. For example, you go out and buy a future contract for 10,000 barrels of oil that will expire on oct 1. On oct 1, whoever holds that contract must take deliver of 10000 barrels of oil. Its doesn't matter whats going on in the spot market, or next months futures. you either have to have sold your contract or find someplace to put all that oil. and if demand has dropped since you bought your future, your probably going to sell it for less than you paid. likewise, if demand is stronger, your going to sell for more than you paid.
they often raise the price based solely on RUMORS, such as the "threat of a hurricane" that's only a tropical storm in the east Atlantic, or the "fear of terrorism in Nigeria" when no such condition exists
that is because oil is bought and sold on future contracts. If the price investors are paying for a future jumps, then likewise the spot price will go up also.
So, no, supply and demand have almost nothing to do with the price of gasoline
Its just simple economics. what happened in the spring was, crude oil inventories were fine, as was supply. thats why your little chart doesn't show an upspwing in crude prices. no hurricains, no striffe in oil producing nations, no descion to cut production, and so on and so on. that stability in the oil market kept crude prices relatively stable.
But, on the gas side, refineries were having big problems. they had their normal maintanence and repair, and in addition to that, the running of the refineries 24/7 caused even more repairs and manintenance to be needed. that tightning of supply led to higher gasoline prices. its economics 101. higher demand + lower supply = higher prices.
Anyone who thinks this is all innocent supply and demand hasn't seen the toilet paper shortage and the sugar shortages long ago where the warehouses were full but the speculators were withholding from the market.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Consumer "Why are gas prices rising?"
Oil industry "Because of supply and demand"
Consumer "How do we know when that ratio changes?"
Oil industry "Don't worry, we'll tell you when it does."
And this is a good one:
"It (sic)impossible for even the oil cartel to fix the price. they can manipulate it by controling (sic) the supply though. "
Right. Just like it's impossible for a gunman to shoot someone. But he can manipulate a bullet by controlling the direction of the barrel though.
Bottom line is, we all know that we're getting ripped off. We just have no alternative to fossil fuel-powered transport, so we have to pay.
your assuming the oil cartel controls 100% of crude production, and they dont. there are 2 reasons they can't completely control it.1. they are corrupt. despite the fact they gather every couple months to set production quotas and such, few of them actually honor those arangement
2. they need the money. those contries live off oil revenue. If they stop selling, or drasticly cut back, their economies collapse. they found that out in the 70's, and is why they ended the embargo. Its also why Iran is doing everything it can (short of complying with the IAEA) to avoid sanctions. They can no more stop selling oil than we can stop buying it.
The bottom line is, your just buying in conspiracy. but thats the nice thing about conspiracies I guess. They can be believed despite a lack of proff or evidence. Its really a shame though. Go to school and they teach you math, science, language, and so forth.......but not economics.
and for some reason, you seem to have trouble differentiating crude oil from gasoline. They are two entirely different things. Gas is not made out of crude, its extracted from it. Along with a lot of other products.
The price of crude only represents about 70% of the price of gasoline. The fact that only so many gallons of gas can be had from a barrel of crude is big factor in differing prices between the two.
Actually the crude oil is only about 57% of the cost of a gallon gas as of July 2007.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
The difference is, times have changed. The whole industy is heavily monitored by the SEC, FTC, and god knows how many other government agencies, plus all the independant groups out there. Add to that the fact the government regulary investigates the oil industires, despite the fact they have never found anything. I know that won't sway the conspiracy crowd, as they'll just say the government is conspiring with the oil companies. But again, I guess thats the nice thing about a conspiracy. you just make the charges. If you can't find any proff, you just claim the conspirators are so good at covering their tracks that you can't prove it.
The CIA, NSA and FBI "regulate" international and domestic terrorism, yet somehow they all missed 19 muslim terrorists entering the U.S., taking flight school classes without worrying about how to land the planes (never mind the flight instructor who called the FBI to report this), obtaining fake IDs with the help of corrupt state DMV workers, then boarding commercial airliners (passing the really tough ticket agent who asked them if they packed their own luggage), and hijacking the planes and flying them into buildings.
Yeah, our government ..... we're lucky to have them looking out for our interests. Certainly, they'd never let oil producers defraud consumers, no matter how many bribes -- oops! I mean "campaign contributions" -- the companies offer.
The proof of oil price fixing is that oil prices and gas prices spike again and again for no reason. But we hear plenty of excuses.
The bottom line is, some folks are just buying into the oil cartel's propoganda. But that's the nice thing about propoganda, I guess. It can be believed despite a lack of proof or evidence.
Seems like every time I raise issues about corruption in the oil market, someone's quick to respond with non sequiturs such as 'OPEC can't fix prices because if they stopped selling oil they'd go broke,' or 'crude oil and gasoline have nothing to do with eachother.'
Whatever.
You seem to have a fetish of trying to say that others are pushing a conspiracy theory and they obviously have to be much less knowledgeable than yourself to be fooled into thinking there's any kind of collective manipulation. :sick:
> whole industy is heavily monitored by the SEC, FTC, and god knows how many other government agencies,
So was the tobacco industry. Remember all the testimony in front of congress and all the CEOs of the tobacco companies swearing that it was the truth!!!
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
and you think enron was as heavily monitored before the implosion as the oil companies are? they've been heavily scrutinized for over 30 years now. over 15 investigations and still no proff of wrong doing.
The proof of oil price fixing is that oil prices and gas prices spike again and again for no reason.
there are plenty of reason, you just choose to ignore them
The bottom line is, some folks are just buying into the oil cartel's propoganda.
the bottom line is, you have not one shread of evidence to back up your claims.
a conspiracy is in fact an accusation that can not be proven. I've yet to see any proff here that back up the claim the oil companies are manipulating prices. It just comes down to somebody saying "gas went up last week, I don't know why, so exxon is screwing me". That is exactly what a conspiracy is.
So was the tobacco industry. Remember all the testimony in front of congress and all the CEOs of the tobacco companies swearing that it was the truth!!!
and look what happened to them. Granted, the system moves slow, but once the connection with smoking and health risks was made, it didn't take long to bust the ciggarett companies. This has been going on with oil for over 30 years, and nobody has been able to prove the claims of price fixing and so on. Yet some still believe
Nail on the head, man. Good post.
I remember that Kansas refinery flooding last spring, and hearing the media bleat constantly that it would affect oil prices worldwide.
I also remember wishing I could ask whether a harsh winter in Florida would affect orange prices in China.
But, of course, the anointed members of the information class don't bother talking to regular folks. They're too busy attending news conferences with heads of state and industry insiders -- the people who know everything, and assure us that it's all okay.
so now the media, along with the government and most economist, are suckling on the teat of big oil. please, tell me how deep does this non conspiracy go?
how deep is the rabbit hole alice?
Strangely, you offer no evidence, yourself. Just anectdotes and regurgitated phrases from an economics textbook. All the while you dish out insults that do nothing to support your position, but apparently make you feel superior to everyone taking part in the discussion.
Either make a salient point, or dive back into your own rabbit hole.
Since economics 101 does not play in to why we are charged so much, but greed does, I call gasoline ghastly.
How do feel about how much you are being gouged at the pump, man?
Ghastly, man, just ghastly. Cheeseburger with bacon, please. Hold the supply-side economics and trickle-down slather.
Ghastly.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Brown is crude oil price (from which gasoline and byproducts are made).
Prices in Ohio vary drastically (gastically). I used Detroit as a nearby comparison so the Economist experts wouldn't have an out. You can go to Daytongasprices.com and choose whatever cities you wish to compare.
Why during the last few days have the prices gone from $2.69/$2.72 to $2.96/$2.95 averages for Dayton/Cincinnati?
1) Crude pirce increase on 8/24 and 8/25?
2)Did the supply drastically decrease for the economist excuse?
3)Did the oil companies/distributors decide to raise the price?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Gas prices rise again (Cincinnati Enquirer)
you offered one chart that shows nothing more than gas prices are not 100% tied to crude prices. gracie even posted a link for you showing that crude prices only make up 50% of the price of gas. how does that prove manipulation?
I say this one last time, crude oil, and gasoline are two entirely different products that are sold as separate commodities on separate markets. I can't make it any simpler than that. gasoline prices can go up without a spike in crude. yes, it is possible. Just because the oil comapines are making less gasoline (for whatever reasons) does not in any way effect the supply of crude. oil producing nations just keep pumping it out of the ground, they don't care whats being done with it. But I'm tired of defending common sense, you explain to me why a commodity (gasoline) has a decrease in supply, with increasing demand, should not go up in price? This works for all commodities. its why copper has gone up significantly, corn, other precious metals ect. Why should gasoline be different?
you want facts?
fact one, durring the months when prices increased significantly from the price of crude, refinery capacity was down, along with inventories. that is a stone cold fact you can look up if you like.
fact 2, when a commodity is in short supply while demand is increasing, prices go up. again, please explain to me why this applies to every commodity traded, but shouldn't apply to gasoline.
there are several links posted explaining this (mostly by our host) yet you choose to ingonre them. If your going to continue to do that, there is not point even discussing this with you. The burden of proff is not on me. oil is behaving as any comodity does, and as its supposed to. your the one saying its all lies and propaganda. The burden of proff falls on you.
The Hurricane Dean is long gone. " Tom Kloza, an information service analyst" is quoted. What's an information service analyst?: a media fax specialist to put out the message from the Petroleum Institute?
Isn't it odd also that supplies are low in Midwest often? A refinery in Whiting has a small portion shut down. Big problem. A Kansas City refinery has a problem-far, far away. A Missippi refinery affects SW Ohio but not anywhere else? Come on. How gullible can one be?
Refineries happen to be shut down for service at the time when gasoline is needed for summer special blends? And it's just economics. Perhaps if the expert lived in SW Ohio and watched the (whoever you accept that determines prices that's not a conspiracy figment of imagination) and had watched prices go up on Thursday mornings drastically for years and then edge slowly down by Monday and Wednesday only to rise drastically on Thursday..., there wouldn't be this conspiracy ridicule.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
It's someone who finds links. I'm gonna add that one to my resume. :shades:
Boise supposedly gets all our gas via pipeline from the Chevron depot in Salt Lake City (plus whatever Flying J or whoever trucks in). Chevron here is $2.75 to $2.79. Chevron in SLC (per GasBuddy) is $2.75. Guess that gasoline pipeline is paid for.
You can buy some December unleaded for $1.92 right now (CNN). There may be some delivery fees with that, and you'll probably need a bigger tank for the minimum order than what your SUV will hold (they trade in units of 42,000 gallons).
I'll check with the city. They're really strict about things. Maybe they'll let me did a tank. Nahhhh.
I'll bury it next to my gold bars they sold me on the TV infomercial a few weeks ago.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
OK, Barbwaa-waaa-waaaaa....it's time for you, Martha Stewart and Britney Spears and Lindsey Lohan to splane it to all of us American consumers why we are all gouged weekly, monthly and yes yearly for our rig's ghastly.
Our resident expert is woefully inadequate at splane-ing it.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
IF we were to drive less with higher priced gas via more taxation, I believe it would drop the prices of oil and gas on the commodities market. That in turn would make it easier for people in 3rd world countries to own a car and use the fuel we are conserving. Kernick has said this many times and I think he is right. Just because we cut down our use of oil does not mean the emerging markets will do the same.
I grow tired of the social engineering bunch always making excuses for why certain things should expempt those who are "lower income" whatever that is. And the rest of the people should pay extra to cover the cost for the low income folk. So the middle income folk get hit double, their costs plus the low income folks'cost which they're covering. The concept tries to sound like it's money from "nowhere" to cover; sounds like Hillary-Care.
Low income folk need to pay their way in society just like the rest of us. Are we going to exempt them from paying for the roads they drive on?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
A gas tax would unfairly hit lower income earners.
Most cars with large engines tend to be purchased by upper income earners.
No matter what, our energy policy won't have any effect on countries outside the US.
the demand for oil is rising in china,India and the rest of the 3rd world.
Even if WE use less,the excess will simply be shipped elsewhere.
The oil companies and OPEC will still have their profits.
I agree with you. I think its just something people overlook when they talk about a steep increase in gas taxes. The target isn't lower income people, but they end up getting hit. another $100 per month to someone making six figures a year isn't much. but for someone making 30k a year it can be devestating.
As far as non conservation measure like funding public transportation, or roads; it doesn't sound like a bad idea.
My take on this is the oil companies are controlling inventory so they can justify the high gas prices and continue to bring in record profits.
So, it aint gonna be cheap no matter what.
Second,some parts of the country are going to have to switch over to different blends of gasoline in the not too distant future.
So, you don't want to stock what you can't sell.
Third, why would a business want to carry more inventory that it can readily move?
If you can keep the supply at 20-30 days,why would you want to increase it? You have to store it,and we have a limit on how much space is available as it is.
The US doesn't have enough refining capacity as it is,so I can imagine that the storage situation can't be good either.
Finally, the price of gas has dropped over the last month or so. It is NEVER going to go below $2.00/gal ever again anyway.
Bottom line is,people want gas. People will pay for gas.
You may as well buy stock in Exxon-Mobil and ride the wave.