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Comments
What do you think obsolete technology will do to "today's" EV when you go to sell them "tomorrow".
The classic argument is "well it will do in 2010 what it did in 2006 so it shouldn't matter" but I think that breaks down when the "new" version of your old EV beats it in every way and when the dealers have to "order" your parts.
Will EVs take a harder hit, or lesser hit, on resale...than say a gas car?
My guess, and that's all it is, would be that if the EV company that produced the vehicle went out of business or discontinued making EVs all together (very likely these days, given the dismal record so far), then the car would plummet to nothingness. BUT....BUT...if a major manufacturer merely came out with an "updated" model (NEWER!BIGGER!FASTER!) like say the 2nd gen Prius, then the depreciation might be more like the 1st gen Prius. A 1st gen Prius is *not* an easy sell but it still retains some value and isn't much different than a normal used car depreciation of a less popular model.
If I were in the market for an EV, I'd definitely lease one, since buying only make sense when you are keeping fairly long term. If the manufacturer wrote the leases, they could then buy-back the cars at lease termination and recycle them properly---solving the land-fill question for dead batteries.
First, cars are different than PCs. The amount of non-tech component of the whole is vastly greater in a car. Body, seats, tires, suspension..yada yada. A pc is pretty much all about the electronics and software. So, at first blush, it would seem to be more likely to upgrade/replace a battery than it is with PCs. I just bought a large lcd monitor. That will be the first component that gets used with my next pc, because I've always bought a complete system. If batteries are too expensive to replace, then pure EV's are probably too expensive to build on any kind of scale...unless they last so long that the car around it is worth next to nothing.
Of course, people often replace cars for nonpractical reasons. Status, boredom, needs change, wants change..
Besides businesses, early adopters in PC's were pretty much hobbyists. Until the interenet took off, most of us had no real use to justify one for the home. The EV must compete with what I would deam a necessity that already has a solution. I call it a necessity because I grew up in the west. So the market is there, it will need to compete against its current rival and perhaps hydrogen or whatever other configuration might come along. The PC slowly infiltrated areas like accounting. So it appears at the moment that business fleets are to be the first to adopt. But the "internet" -or need- for general public vehicles already
exists.
gotta go for now.
One theory as to why the gasoline car triumphed was the invention of the electric starter in 1912. Once you could flip a switch and go, it was all over for steam, and once gas cars became reliable (certainly they were very reliable by 1912) it was all over for electrics except in cities for running very short errands (about a 30 mile range for the Detroit electric).
Electric cars did leave a legacy, however, as they were among the first cars to have closed bodies, very early on....but even in 1918 or so, most gas cars were still open, but by 1929 most were closed.
So I see the same battle going on----range of the vehicle, convenience to operate, cost to buy and own, and fuel efficiency. And 100 years later, gas cars are still winning.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
I think that sums it up pretty well. I am not sure how much more efficient pure gas cars can be. Another 10% here...20% there? The real gains likely or currently seem to be from utilizing electric in hybrids. If the Volt is the best we can do, then so be it. It will be a great feat if it can be pulled off. I do think that the pace of innovation has increased substantially, so I am betting that the one real blockage, power storage, will continue to evolve and improve. Personally I would pay up to $25k for a Yaris with a 150 ev range. Of course if I can get a Volt as touted for $5k more, I would probably go with that because my gas usage would be next to nothing. It pains me so greatly to see our money going to support pinheads like Chavez that I may be an exception.
It would be nice if the only obstacle to buying an EV was whether to wait another year and get an extra 50 miles in range..just like it used to be with computers until they reached the stage of usability that meets most of our needs...as they did a few years back.
I agree that the future will be very interesting in this regard. I believe it will be a lot sooner than 10 years for things to start shaking out. In a couple years you still won't be seeing EVs on the road but the public sentiment will have changed dramatically. A lot of people that are now totally unaware of EVs will have become at least a little educated and start thinking, hmmm... that might be an option. That's the first step, change the mindset.
One sure way to change behavior is with *social* incentives. If a person receives as much admiration for his EV as for his Hummer, well then, things will change.
Look at bicycles. 50 years ago, the only adults you saw riding bicycles were the witch in the Wizard of Oz, and eccentric weirdos on 1950s TV sitcoms.
In the 60s and 70s, the only people driving diesels were old men in berets and taxi drivers in Cairo.
I thought the comment about a Yaris for $25,000 with a genuine 150 mile range was right on. That sounds about "market correct", that is, something that could actually sell right here, right now.
http://media.mitsubishi-motors.com/pressrelease/e/corporate/detail1269.html
THe problem with electric engines and hybrids is the stuff we put in the cars now a days . The batterys would have a tough time driving an electric motor , a nav system , dvd entertaiment system , air con , power seats , windows , abs , tracktion control , abs and what ever other features are out there or yet to come .
The biggest step foward will be the toshiba batterys that apparently can charge 90% of capacity in 1 minute . The problem is the cost . These would be great in a hybrid or electric as when you break you get a large jolt of energy right away that current batterys can store efficently .
I think another thing they need to do in the car industry is to offer these hybrids in more types of cars . I could not find one suv with a hybrid engine in my price range (18-24k ) I ended up getting a torrent which met my size requirement and still should give me at least 5mpg more than the jeep its replacing .
If the torrent was offered with a hybrid at even a 3k-4k price diffrence and offered enough of a mpg diffrence i would have jumped all over it . Hell anything and i would have jumped over it (except the ford that is out there , it felt really bad to me on the road) These companys need to offer these hybrid motors to drive the costs down on everything and they simply aren't doing it in enough numbers
If there is say, something as new in tranportation coming down the pike, as the airplane was to people in 1900, (who never saw one) it won't be an EV, because we have that already.
The nice thing about futurists is that they are almost always wrong.
It is indeed impossible to look out so far. Transporter?
EV's or PHEV's seem likely to me near term. But, if storage tech does not come down in price and or improve, we will be exploring for oil, bio-fueling, coal distilling, etc for some time to come.
A $60k, 350 mile range, very fast, small suv.
They are using an aluminum frame. That has to be pretty expensive of itself.
Getting closer...getting closer.
http://www.slashgear.com/zap-x-suv-is-644bhp-electric-monster-303661.php
"Statements in this press release that relate to future plans or projected results of ZAP are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "PSLRA"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the PSLRA, and all such statements fall under the "safe harbor" provisions of the PSLRA. ZAP's actual results may vary materially from those described in any "forward-looking statement"
They do make EVs but they are nothing like the one in the Press release...they are toys compared to that fabulous car they are showing in the photo.
But as you say, it isn't until it is.
Every reality started as a dream!
What is ZAP stock now? I used to own it at about $4 years ago but it never went anywhere. But I did buy 2 of their products and tested another, so I'm loyal enough :P
Looks like they are heading in that direction...
Our second car, the low-end version of that, the target price is under $50,000. And that's a five-seater sedan, good-looking, quick, ...
Tesla Q&A
ZAP people are great up there in Sebastopol. Very friendly. I wish them well.
If they could somehow achieve another halving of the price with the third model, then they are in terroritory where even a skeptical cheapskate like me would consider one
An all-electric car with a 250 mile range would certainly meet our needs for one of our two vehicles. Maybe even for both, if we were willing to rent for the occassional (once or twice per year) longer trip.
Not that I personally am interested in this type of car, but I have to say to my surprise, I like the attitude of this company...
Historically, it seemed to us that electric cars had been designed by people who thought we really shouldn‘t be driving at all - but if we must, we should suffer every minute of it...We needed to change perceptions of electric vehicles in a big way. To make electric cars a viable alternative, we set out to build one that was gorgeous and thrilling to drive...this car exists and is for sale now. It‘s a no-compromise driver‘s car that can accelerate faster than a Porsche 911...
http://www.teslamotors.com/about/company.php?js_enabled=1
Who's Tucker and what did he do?
PS
The Tucker was an innovative car that was squashed by the other automakers.
I don't think the automakers put hin out of business. I think he was just a terrible businessman with an interesting vision. (All talk, not so much walk...)
Tuckers are great, but they needed a lot more R&D. I mean, helicopter engines coupled to old Cord transmissions? Now really.....
I wonder---was any electric car marketed in the late 40s, early 50s?
You made that up! :mad:
The Jinan Flybo Motor Company's flagship is called the XFD-6000ZK. The name is almost longer than the vehicle, which measures 102.3 inches long on a 71-inch wheelbase and looks similar to the Smart from certain angles. Top speed is 45 mph (with the 25-mph limiter removed), and it has a range of 70 miles on a charge. Classified as a Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV), the XFD-6000ZK is "100 percent legal for on-road use," the company says. It and two lower-end electric cars — yes, there are lower-end models — are powered by a 48V electric motor. MSRP on the XFD-6000ZK is $12,950. Complete details are available at the Flybo Web site.
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=120129?imw=Y
(CBS13) LINCOLN, Calif. The city of Lincoln has just won a big statewide award for being plugged in. Lincoln beat more than 100 other cities for the progress it has made in developing roads just for electric vehicles. John Iander says it's changing the city's lifestyle.
Jim Hobbs heads to the grocery store with the road to himself, just like growing number of Lincoln residents, Jim gets around a lot now in his electric cart.
"It saves on gas it's easy to get over here to Safeway, and lots of fresh air!," said Hobbs.
http://cbs13.com/local/local_story_087203153.html
http://www.thevillages.com/index2.htm
so the "short trip" relates to current EVs limited range, the good weather relates to the effect of cold climates on current types of batteries, and the protected environments relates to current EVs inability to maintain high speeds for long distances.
I'm sure this will change, but right now, that's about all we got in the showrooms ready to go
anyone?
I remember this number because I was surprised at the time how high it was. I was researching a story on wrecking yards--that's how I came across this.
This number of course is not the same as the average age when the first owner gets rid of a car.
I think the 9 to 11 year figure comes from registrations--so I presume dealer inventory would, if they count it, actually shorten the longevity rate, not make it longer---since dealer cars tend to be newer.
If the longevity rate decreases, I don't think it will have anything to do with the quality of the cars. it's more about the cost to repair old cars, and the amount of ready credit to buy new ones.
Which, bringing us back to topic, is why the EV industry will need subsidy and incentive, like they did with hybrids. (tax break is a subsidy, free commuter lane passage and tolls and parking is an incentive).
This is a good kind of subsidy. Subsidizing the ethanol industry is a bad kind of incentive, as it supports an inferior technology.
The average age is increasing because cars are better built, not worse. When I first started driving, in the mid 70s, a 10 year old car was really old. Now that is just a little over the average.
median might be a better measure than mean, because the guy with the 1950s or even 1970s car certainly skews the numbers.
There may well be a mileage skew as well. People across the street have an newer SUV and an old Mercedes that hasn't run in months. Looking around I see a couple more examples of this. It is probably safe to say that older cars get driven less than the newer ones in most two car households. Agree?
I would suspect this mileage skew between new and old cars to be vastly greater if/when an EV/PHEV with a durable and able power storage system arrived.
Probably in the most optimistic of worlds, the time for the PHEV or EV to take a significant bite of new car sales is what...five years(?). We have a long time to go. Better start firing up those coal gassification plants and burying the CO2, bringing in more diesels and crank up the biodiesel, and what not. Hopefully if a really good power system comes along, we can retrofit some older cars to speed the process along.