What do you think obsolete technology will do to "today's" EV when you go to sell them "tomorrow".
The classic argument is "well it will do in 2010 what it did in 2006 so it shouldn't matter" but I think that breaks down when the "new" version of your old EV beats it in every way and when the dealers have to "order" your parts.
Will EVs take a harder hit, or lesser hit, on resale...than say a gas car?
That is an interesting question. My take is I would just keep an EV forever. Again the big question is the batteries. If they are subject to emissions laws as are the ICE vehicles you may get a long warranty on the batteries. Then again why would an EV be subject to those laws? The only thing that saves the resale value of the hybrid is the 100k-150k mile warranty mandated by EPA and CARB. When the hybrid warranty runs out they are not good sellers except to the uneducated buyer. I would expect EVs to suffer from a big loss in resale value. I base that on the few that are being offered for sale. Most are one of a kind or home built.
Well the resale question perhaps finds more light in the area of TVs and computers than cars, since it seems that electronic technology moves the fastest of all in our society.
My guess, and that's all it is, would be that if the EV company that produced the vehicle went out of business or discontinued making EVs all together (very likely these days, given the dismal record so far), then the car would plummet to nothingness. BUT....BUT...if a major manufacturer merely came out with an "updated" model (NEWER!BIGGER!FASTER!) like say the 2nd gen Prius, then the depreciation might be more like the 1st gen Prius. A 1st gen Prius is *not* an easy sell but it still retains some value and isn't much different than a normal used car depreciation of a less popular model.
I agree that EVs will be somewhat like computers in terms of becoming outdated technology relatively quickly. But like computers they might be a lot easier to upgrade than an ICE. If your battery pack is shot a replacement will, in all likelihood, be better and cheaper than the original one. The electric motor shouldn't wear out but again, something that could be more easily replaced than on an ICE. There are a lot fewer systems to maintain on an EV so it lends itself more to the do-it-yourselfer. This is evidenced by the fact that homemade EVs make up the bulk of what's available. Whether or not the original manufacturer goes out of business might not be too relevent if a cottage industry of EV mechanics springs up. 2 of the last 3 computers I purchased were from companies that went out of business a year later. That didn't really concern me.
I guess it will depend on economy of scale how cheap it will be to keep older EVs going. If they don't sell a lot of them, I suspect replacement battery packs will, as you say, be better, but I'm not so sure about cheaper. It hasn't been the usual experience to see replacement parts for obsolete tech to be particularly cheap.
If I were in the market for an EV, I'd definitely lease one, since buying only make sense when you are keeping fairly long term. If the manufacturer wrote the leases, they could then buy-back the cars at lease termination and recycle them properly---solving the land-fill question for dead batteries.
First, cars are different than PCs. The amount of non-tech component of the whole is vastly greater in a car. Body, seats, tires, suspension..yada yada. A pc is pretty much all about the electronics and software. So, at first blush, it would seem to be more likely to upgrade/replace a battery than it is with PCs. I just bought a large lcd monitor. That will be the first component that gets used with my next pc, because I've always bought a complete system. If batteries are too expensive to replace, then pure EV's are probably too expensive to build on any kind of scale...unless they last so long that the car around it is worth next to nothing.
Of course, people often replace cars for nonpractical reasons. Status, boredom, needs change, wants change..
Besides businesses, early adopters in PC's were pretty much hobbyists. Until the interenet took off, most of us had no real use to justify one for the home. The EV must compete with what I would deam a necessity that already has a solution. I call it a necessity because I grew up in the west. So the market is there, it will need to compete against its current rival and perhaps hydrogen or whatever other configuration might come along. The PC slowly infiltrated areas like accounting. So it appears at the moment that business fleets are to be the first to adopt. But the "internet" -or need- for general public vehicles already exists.
On that note, an interesting bit of history to read about is the battle among steam, electric and gasoline cars that took place right at the turn of the 20th century. It was touch and go there for perhaps 10 years deciding which form of locomotion would prevail....I didn't say which type of fuel, because the steam cars also ran on kerosene to heat the boilers.
One theory as to why the gasoline car triumphed was the invention of the electric starter in 1912. Once you could flip a switch and go, it was all over for steam, and once gas cars became reliable (certainly they were very reliable by 1912) it was all over for electrics except in cities for running very short errands (about a 30 mile range for the Detroit electric).
Electric cars did leave a legacy, however, as they were among the first cars to have closed bodies, very early on....but even in 1918 or so, most gas cars were still open, but by 1929 most were closed.
So I see the same battle going on----range of the vehicle, convenience to operate, cost to buy and own, and fuel efficiency. And 100 years later, gas cars are still winning.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
So I see the same battle going on----range of the vehicle, convenience to operate, cost to buy and own, and fuel efficiency. And 100 years later, gas cars are still winning.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
I think that sums it up pretty well. I am not sure how much more efficient pure gas cars can be. Another 10% here...20% there? The real gains likely or currently seem to be from utilizing electric in hybrids. If the Volt is the best we can do, then so be it. It will be a great feat if it can be pulled off. I do think that the pace of innovation has increased substantially, so I am betting that the one real blockage, power storage, will continue to evolve and improve. Personally I would pay up to $25k for a Yaris with a 150 ev range. Of course if I can get a Volt as touted for $5k more, I would probably go with that because my gas usage would be next to nothing. It pains me so greatly to see our money going to support pinheads like Chavez that I may be an exception.
It would be nice if the only obstacle to buying an EV was whether to wait another year and get an extra 50 miles in range..just like it used to be with computers until they reached the stage of usability that meets most of our needs...as they did a few years back.
It seems this time around the EV and ICE have switched roles.
I agree that the future will be very interesting in this regard. I believe it will be a lot sooner than 10 years for things to start shaking out. In a couple years you still won't be seeing EVs on the road but the public sentiment will have changed dramatically. A lot of people that are now totally unaware of EVs will have become at least a little educated and start thinking, hmmm... that might be an option. That's the first step, change the mindset.
That's very true. People who bought hybrids these past few years really did so because of a change of mindset, not just because of the fuel mileage (which isn't that substantially better than a "regular" car).
One sure way to change behavior is with *social* incentives. If a person receives as much admiration for his EV as for his Hummer, well then, things will change.
Look at bicycles. 50 years ago, the only adults you saw riding bicycles were the witch in the Wizard of Oz, and eccentric weirdos on 1950s TV sitcoms.
In the 60s and 70s, the only people driving diesels were old men in berets and taxi drivers in Cairo.
I thought the comment about a Yaris for $25,000 with a genuine 150 mile range was right on. That sounds about "market correct", that is, something that could actually sell right here, right now.
Yeah interesting. I've driven a similar conversion done by the ZAP people in California. Again, the problem with this nifty little rig is the range....at present only 35 miles. The builder is going for performance rather than range, so fair enough--he's got his goals.
There is supposedly going to be a Mitsubishi that is on the right track. The range is more like 90 miles. Don't know about acceleration. I haven't been able to find much since a rather dated press release. I believe somewhere I read the target sell price was $20k. Not slated for the US at this point...2010 for Japan.
I think in the end we are going to have a mix of all these things . Each has its pros and cons . I don't think we will see gas / desiel engines go away for a few more decades perhaps not till 2100 or so . They are just to efficent on the highways compared to electric engines .
THe problem with electric engines and hybrids is the stuff we put in the cars now a days . The batterys would have a tough time driving an electric motor , a nav system , dvd entertaiment system , air con , power seats , windows , abs , tracktion control , abs and what ever other features are out there or yet to come .
The biggest step foward will be the toshiba batterys that apparently can charge 90% of capacity in 1 minute . The problem is the cost . These would be great in a hybrid or electric as when you break you get a large jolt of energy right away that current batterys can store efficently .
I think another thing they need to do in the car industry is to offer these hybrids in more types of cars . I could not find one suv with a hybrid engine in my price range (18-24k ) I ended up getting a torrent which met my size requirement and still should give me at least 5mpg more than the jeep its replacing .
If the torrent was offered with a hybrid at even a 3k-4k price diffrence and offered enough of a mpg diffrence i would have jumped all over it . Hell anything and i would have jumped over it (except the ford that is out there , it felt really bad to me on the road) These companys need to offer these hybrid motors to drive the costs down on everything and they simply aren't doing it in enough numbers
But you know, in 1900 we had cars, telephones and electricity and we still do and they still sorta work the same, only a lot more efficiently.
If there is say, something as new in tranportation coming down the pike, as the airplane was to people in 1900, (who never saw one) it won't be an EV, because we have that already.
The nice thing about futurists is that they are almost always wrong.
Mmm hmmm. I guess technically you could say that we had cars in some form as far back as the late 1700s.
It is indeed impossible to look out so far. Transporter?
EV's or PHEV's seem likely to me near term. But, if storage tech does not come down in price and or improve, we will be exploring for oil, bio-fueling, coal distilling, etc for some time to come.
looks good but don't forget to read the fine print:
"Statements in this press release that relate to future plans or projected results of ZAP are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "PSLRA"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the PSLRA, and all such statements fall under the "safe harbor" provisions of the PSLRA. ZAP's actual results may vary materially from those described in any "forward-looking statement"
That's true "a lottery is a fine levied on people who flunked math in high school".
What is ZAP stock now? I used to own it at about $4 years ago but it never went anywhere. But I did buy 2 of their products and tested another, so I'm loyal enough :P
I had my wife buy at 65 cents and it is around 90-95 cents now. I think it has potential if the big dogs do not enter the EV market for several more years.
Oh wow, it took a beating in the last 5 years. Oh well...I can verify that they own a real building in Sebastapol. But they are a pretty small operation in reality.
if this Tesla were a 4-door car, the size of a BMW 3 series, with exactly the same specs as it has now, but sold for $40,000...then EVs are in the sweet spot.
Looks like they are heading in that direction...
Our second car, the low-end version of that, the target price is under $50,000. And that's a five-seater sedan, good-looking, quick, ...
There you go...a CEO without his head in the clouds. Let's hope this vision is not lost. These "big splash" high tech car start-ups tend to self-destruct in some amazing ways.
ZAP people are great up there in Sebastopol. Very friendly. I wish them well.
Their plan seems to make sense, start with the expensive high end car and work your way down. I don't think anyone is going to have annual sales of 100,000 electric vehicles anytime soon, anyway...so makes sense to start with niche type vehicles.
If they could somehow achieve another halving of the price with the third model, then they are in terroritory where even a skeptical cheapskate like me would consider one . I paid $16k for my new car recently and I figure, if someday there is a well established industry in electric vehicles, gas and maintenance/repair savings are probably worth somwhere around a $10,000 premium for someone like me who does not drive a lot.
An all-electric car with a 250 mile range would certainly meet our needs for one of our two vehicles. Maybe even for both, if we were willing to rent for the occassional (once or twice per year) longer trip.
Not that I personally am interested in this type of car, but I have to say to my surprise, I like the attitude of this company...
Historically, it seemed to us that electric cars had been designed by people who thought we really shouldn‘t be driving at all - but if we must, we should suffer every minute of it...We needed to change perceptions of electric vehicles in a big way. To make electric cars a viable alternative, we set out to build one that was gorgeous and thrilling to drive...this car exists and is for sale now. It‘s a no-compromise driver‘s car that can accelerate faster than a Porsche 911...
Agree...I wonder what happens if they go bankrupt before your car is built, hopefully this money has to be directed to some sort of escrow account and is separate from the company's assets until they deliver the car. Clearly this is for the "early adopters" and will not fly if they do build a more mainstream car someday.
I would guess it is just like the Tucker. My uncle put money on a Tucker. When they went out of business he got a Tucker Car radio. It was his conversation piece. They will have spent that $50k long before your car is built. Think of it as investing in the technology.
PS The Tucker was an innovative car that was squashed by the other automakers.
Well since he made a lot more radios than cars, I think everybody who wants one has one. There are only something like 49 Tuckers.
I don't think the automakers put hin out of business. I think he was just a terrible businessman with an interesting vision. (All talk, not so much walk...)
Tuckers are great, but they needed a lot more R&D. I mean, helicopter engines coupled to old Cord transmissions? Now really.....
I was very young when that happened. I know my uncle lost more than the radio was worth. He was really a Packard man. He would order one from the factory pick it up and drive it back to LA. Then sell it for a good profit. This was at the end of WW2.
The Jinan Flybo Motor Company's flagship is called the XFD-6000ZK. The name is almost longer than the vehicle, which measures 102.3 inches long on a 71-inch wheelbase and looks similar to the Smart from certain angles. Top speed is 45 mph (with the 25-mph limiter removed), and it has a range of 70 miles on a charge. Classified as a Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV), the XFD-6000ZK is "100 percent legal for on-road use," the company says. It and two lower-end electric cars — yes, there are lower-end models — are powered by a 48V electric motor. MSRP on the XFD-6000ZK is $12,950. Complete details are available at the Flybo Web site.
Not very practical around these parts..but here it is..
(CBS13) LINCOLN, Calif. The city of Lincoln has just won a big statewide award for being plugged in. Lincoln beat more than 100 other cities for the progress it has made in developing roads just for electric vehicles. John Iander says it's changing the city's lifestyle.
Jim Hobbs heads to the grocery store with the road to himself, just like growing number of Lincoln residents, Jim gets around a lot now in his electric cart.
"It saves on gas it's easy to get over here to Safeway, and lots of fresh air!," said Hobbs.
I think The Villages in Florida is another such place. There are about 40,000 retirement homes 18+ golf courses and the preferred transportation is the ELECTRIC golf cart. They have their own shopping malls & great restaurants. My tax man retired there from San Diego and loves it. Told me his Lexus has not been out of the garage 10 times in a year.
Perfect application of an EV....good weather, short trips, slow speeds, protected/controlled environment (no real competition with high speed vehicles.).
What's not the perfect application for an EV? High speeds and good weather have nothing to do with it. Short trips, maybe. What's a short trip, less than 100 miles? Obviously most of our trip would be categorized as short. So an EV is a perfect application for all of us, most of the time. It's just not perfect for those of us that can only afford one vehicle and that vehicle needs to be adequate for all occasions. Fine, those people won't be interested in an EV. Is there any vehicle that is perfect for everyone? I don't think so. The fact that you can identify a group that would not be suited for an EV is not a legitimate argument against their viability. I seem to remember reading some of your posts where you are a fan of small, lightweight, RWD roadster/coupe type vehicles. I like those kind of cars too but they definitely don't have universal appeal. Is that a valid reason to dismiss them?
I meant perfect application for the type of EV that actually exists, that you can buy right now for a reasonable price. So my comments were based on reality at the moment, not on $100,000 roadsters or concept cars or backyard projects. The EVs currently for sale aren't ready for prime time IMO.
so the "short trip" relates to current EVs limited range, the good weather relates to the effect of cold climates on current types of batteries, and the protected environments relates to current EVs inability to maintain high speeds for long distances.
I'm sure this will change, but right now, that's about all we got in the showrooms ready to go
I did a little googling, but I can't seem to get anything on the turnover rate for cars in america. Like the average age of cars on the highwayor something....trying to get a sense of how long a disruptive technology would take to filter through.
Last time I checked it was something like 9 years before a car is usually either junked, wrecked, etc. This I think represents the average age of all cars on the road today. Something like that, around 9 to 11 years. I bet that's pretty accurate. That probably includes pickup trucks, vans, etc.
I remember this number because I was surprised at the time how high it was. I was researching a story on wrecking yards--that's how I came across this.
This number of course is not the same as the average age when the first owner gets rid of a car.
How many million used cars are on the resale lots? Does this figure count when a car is totaled by the insurance company. I see way more salvage titles than ever. There is no way that cars are kept as long as they were in the 1940s 50s and 60s. There is no way my 2005 GMC is as well built as my 1998 Suburban. Just not as solid. Engine transmission are as good or better. Not the body, fit or finish. Doors are poorly aligned in comparison to years ago. Same goes for cars. I know that the 2007 Camry is not as well put together as the 1999 generation Camry. When I see a 2005 LS430 in as good a condition after 18 years as our 1990 LS400, I will be a believer.
I don't think the longevity is based on the car's quality but rather on whether people have the money to buy new cars.
I think the 9 to 11 year figure comes from registrations--so I presume dealer inventory would, if they count it, actually shorten the longevity rate, not make it longer---since dealer cars tend to be newer.
If the longevity rate decreases, I don't think it will have anything to do with the quality of the cars. it's more about the cost to repair old cars, and the amount of ready credit to buy new ones.
Which, bringing us back to topic, is why the EV industry will need subsidy and incentive, like they did with hybrids. (tax break is a subsidy, free commuter lane passage and tolls and parking is an incentive).
This is a good kind of subsidy. Subsidizing the ethanol industry is a bad kind of incentive, as it supports an inferior technology.
The average age is increasing because cars are better built, not worse. When I first started driving, in the mid 70s, a 10 year old car was really old. Now that is just a little over the average.
median might be a better measure than mean, because the guy with the 1950s or even 1970s car certainly skews the numbers.
There may well be a mileage skew as well. People across the street have an newer SUV and an old Mercedes that hasn't run in months. Looking around I see a couple more examples of this. It is probably safe to say that older cars get driven less than the newer ones in most two car households. Agree?
I would suspect this mileage skew between new and old cars to be vastly greater if/when an EV/PHEV with a durable and able power storage system arrived.
Probably in the most optimistic of worlds, the time for the PHEV or EV to take a significant bite of new car sales is what...five years(?). We have a long time to go. Better start firing up those coal gassification plants and burying the CO2, bringing in more diesels and crank up the biodiesel, and what not. Hopefully if a really good power system comes along, we can retrofit some older cars to speed the process along.
Comments
What do you think obsolete technology will do to "today's" EV when you go to sell them "tomorrow".
The classic argument is "well it will do in 2010 what it did in 2006 so it shouldn't matter" but I think that breaks down when the "new" version of your old EV beats it in every way and when the dealers have to "order" your parts.
Will EVs take a harder hit, or lesser hit, on resale...than say a gas car?
My guess, and that's all it is, would be that if the EV company that produced the vehicle went out of business or discontinued making EVs all together (very likely these days, given the dismal record so far), then the car would plummet to nothingness. BUT....BUT...if a major manufacturer merely came out with an "updated" model (NEWER!BIGGER!FASTER!) like say the 2nd gen Prius, then the depreciation might be more like the 1st gen Prius. A 1st gen Prius is *not* an easy sell but it still retains some value and isn't much different than a normal used car depreciation of a less popular model.
If I were in the market for an EV, I'd definitely lease one, since buying only make sense when you are keeping fairly long term. If the manufacturer wrote the leases, they could then buy-back the cars at lease termination and recycle them properly---solving the land-fill question for dead batteries.
First, cars are different than PCs. The amount of non-tech component of the whole is vastly greater in a car. Body, seats, tires, suspension..yada yada. A pc is pretty much all about the electronics and software. So, at first blush, it would seem to be more likely to upgrade/replace a battery than it is with PCs. I just bought a large lcd monitor. That will be the first component that gets used with my next pc, because I've always bought a complete system. If batteries are too expensive to replace, then pure EV's are probably too expensive to build on any kind of scale...unless they last so long that the car around it is worth next to nothing.
Of course, people often replace cars for nonpractical reasons. Status, boredom, needs change, wants change..
Besides businesses, early adopters in PC's were pretty much hobbyists. Until the interenet took off, most of us had no real use to justify one for the home. The EV must compete with what I would deam a necessity that already has a solution. I call it a necessity because I grew up in the west. So the market is there, it will need to compete against its current rival and perhaps hydrogen or whatever other configuration might come along. The PC slowly infiltrated areas like accounting. So it appears at the moment that business fleets are to be the first to adopt. But the "internet" -or need- for general public vehicles already
exists.
gotta go for now.
One theory as to why the gasoline car triumphed was the invention of the electric starter in 1912. Once you could flip a switch and go, it was all over for steam, and once gas cars became reliable (certainly they were very reliable by 1912) it was all over for electrics except in cities for running very short errands (about a 30 mile range for the Detroit electric).
Electric cars did leave a legacy, however, as they were among the first cars to have closed bodies, very early on....but even in 1918 or so, most gas cars were still open, but by 1929 most were closed.
So I see the same battle going on----range of the vehicle, convenience to operate, cost to buy and own, and fuel efficiency. And 100 years later, gas cars are still winning.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
It will be interesting to see if the equation alters radically in the next ten years or not.
I think that sums it up pretty well. I am not sure how much more efficient pure gas cars can be. Another 10% here...20% there? The real gains likely or currently seem to be from utilizing electric in hybrids. If the Volt is the best we can do, then so be it. It will be a great feat if it can be pulled off. I do think that the pace of innovation has increased substantially, so I am betting that the one real blockage, power storage, will continue to evolve and improve. Personally I would pay up to $25k for a Yaris with a 150 ev range. Of course if I can get a Volt as touted for $5k more, I would probably go with that because my gas usage would be next to nothing. It pains me so greatly to see our money going to support pinheads like Chavez that I may be an exception.
It would be nice if the only obstacle to buying an EV was whether to wait another year and get an extra 50 miles in range..just like it used to be with computers until they reached the stage of usability that meets most of our needs...as they did a few years back.
I agree that the future will be very interesting in this regard. I believe it will be a lot sooner than 10 years for things to start shaking out. In a couple years you still won't be seeing EVs on the road but the public sentiment will have changed dramatically. A lot of people that are now totally unaware of EVs will have become at least a little educated and start thinking, hmmm... that might be an option. That's the first step, change the mindset.
One sure way to change behavior is with *social* incentives. If a person receives as much admiration for his EV as for his Hummer, well then, things will change.
Look at bicycles. 50 years ago, the only adults you saw riding bicycles were the witch in the Wizard of Oz, and eccentric weirdos on 1950s TV sitcoms.
In the 60s and 70s, the only people driving diesels were old men in berets and taxi drivers in Cairo.
I thought the comment about a Yaris for $25,000 with a genuine 150 mile range was right on. That sounds about "market correct", that is, something that could actually sell right here, right now.
http://media.mitsubishi-motors.com/pressrelease/e/corporate/detail1269.html
THe problem with electric engines and hybrids is the stuff we put in the cars now a days . The batterys would have a tough time driving an electric motor , a nav system , dvd entertaiment system , air con , power seats , windows , abs , tracktion control , abs and what ever other features are out there or yet to come .
The biggest step foward will be the toshiba batterys that apparently can charge 90% of capacity in 1 minute . The problem is the cost . These would be great in a hybrid or electric as when you break you get a large jolt of energy right away that current batterys can store efficently .
I think another thing they need to do in the car industry is to offer these hybrids in more types of cars . I could not find one suv with a hybrid engine in my price range (18-24k ) I ended up getting a torrent which met my size requirement and still should give me at least 5mpg more than the jeep its replacing .
If the torrent was offered with a hybrid at even a 3k-4k price diffrence and offered enough of a mpg diffrence i would have jumped all over it . Hell anything and i would have jumped over it (except the ford that is out there , it felt really bad to me on the road) These companys need to offer these hybrid motors to drive the costs down on everything and they simply aren't doing it in enough numbers
If there is say, something as new in tranportation coming down the pike, as the airplane was to people in 1900, (who never saw one) it won't be an EV, because we have that already.
The nice thing about futurists is that they are almost always wrong.
It is indeed impossible to look out so far. Transporter?
EV's or PHEV's seem likely to me near term. But, if storage tech does not come down in price and or improve, we will be exploring for oil, bio-fueling, coal distilling, etc for some time to come.
A $60k, 350 mile range, very fast, small suv.
They are using an aluminum frame. That has to be pretty expensive of itself.
Getting closer...getting closer.
http://www.slashgear.com/zap-x-suv-is-644bhp-electric-monster-303661.php
"Statements in this press release that relate to future plans or projected results of ZAP are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "PSLRA"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the PSLRA, and all such statements fall under the "safe harbor" provisions of the PSLRA. ZAP's actual results may vary materially from those described in any "forward-looking statement"
They do make EVs but they are nothing like the one in the Press release...they are toys compared to that fabulous car they are showing in the photo.
But as you say, it isn't until it is.
Every reality started as a dream!
What is ZAP stock now? I used to own it at about $4 years ago but it never went anywhere. But I did buy 2 of their products and tested another, so I'm loyal enough :P
Looks like they are heading in that direction...
Our second car, the low-end version of that, the target price is under $50,000. And that's a five-seater sedan, good-looking, quick, ...
Tesla Q&A
ZAP people are great up there in Sebastopol. Very friendly. I wish them well.
If they could somehow achieve another halving of the price with the third model, then they are in terroritory where even a skeptical cheapskate like me would consider one
An all-electric car with a 250 mile range would certainly meet our needs for one of our two vehicles. Maybe even for both, if we were willing to rent for the occassional (once or twice per year) longer trip.
Not that I personally am interested in this type of car, but I have to say to my surprise, I like the attitude of this company...
Historically, it seemed to us that electric cars had been designed by people who thought we really shouldn‘t be driving at all - but if we must, we should suffer every minute of it...We needed to change perceptions of electric vehicles in a big way. To make electric cars a viable alternative, we set out to build one that was gorgeous and thrilling to drive...this car exists and is for sale now. It‘s a no-compromise driver‘s car that can accelerate faster than a Porsche 911...
http://www.teslamotors.com/about/company.php?js_enabled=1
Who's Tucker and what did he do?
PS
The Tucker was an innovative car that was squashed by the other automakers.
I don't think the automakers put hin out of business. I think he was just a terrible businessman with an interesting vision. (All talk, not so much walk...)
Tuckers are great, but they needed a lot more R&D. I mean, helicopter engines coupled to old Cord transmissions? Now really.....
I wonder---was any electric car marketed in the late 40s, early 50s?
You made that up! :mad:
The Jinan Flybo Motor Company's flagship is called the XFD-6000ZK. The name is almost longer than the vehicle, which measures 102.3 inches long on a 71-inch wheelbase and looks similar to the Smart from certain angles. Top speed is 45 mph (with the 25-mph limiter removed), and it has a range of 70 miles on a charge. Classified as a Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV), the XFD-6000ZK is "100 percent legal for on-road use," the company says. It and two lower-end electric cars — yes, there are lower-end models — are powered by a 48V electric motor. MSRP on the XFD-6000ZK is $12,950. Complete details are available at the Flybo Web site.
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=120129?imw=Y
(CBS13) LINCOLN, Calif. The city of Lincoln has just won a big statewide award for being plugged in. Lincoln beat more than 100 other cities for the progress it has made in developing roads just for electric vehicles. John Iander says it's changing the city's lifestyle.
Jim Hobbs heads to the grocery store with the road to himself, just like growing number of Lincoln residents, Jim gets around a lot now in his electric cart.
"It saves on gas it's easy to get over here to Safeway, and lots of fresh air!," said Hobbs.
http://cbs13.com/local/local_story_087203153.html
http://www.thevillages.com/index2.htm
so the "short trip" relates to current EVs limited range, the good weather relates to the effect of cold climates on current types of batteries, and the protected environments relates to current EVs inability to maintain high speeds for long distances.
I'm sure this will change, but right now, that's about all we got in the showrooms ready to go
anyone?
I remember this number because I was surprised at the time how high it was. I was researching a story on wrecking yards--that's how I came across this.
This number of course is not the same as the average age when the first owner gets rid of a car.
I think the 9 to 11 year figure comes from registrations--so I presume dealer inventory would, if they count it, actually shorten the longevity rate, not make it longer---since dealer cars tend to be newer.
If the longevity rate decreases, I don't think it will have anything to do with the quality of the cars. it's more about the cost to repair old cars, and the amount of ready credit to buy new ones.
Which, bringing us back to topic, is why the EV industry will need subsidy and incentive, like they did with hybrids. (tax break is a subsidy, free commuter lane passage and tolls and parking is an incentive).
This is a good kind of subsidy. Subsidizing the ethanol industry is a bad kind of incentive, as it supports an inferior technology.
The average age is increasing because cars are better built, not worse. When I first started driving, in the mid 70s, a 10 year old car was really old. Now that is just a little over the average.
median might be a better measure than mean, because the guy with the 1950s or even 1970s car certainly skews the numbers.
There may well be a mileage skew as well. People across the street have an newer SUV and an old Mercedes that hasn't run in months. Looking around I see a couple more examples of this. It is probably safe to say that older cars get driven less than the newer ones in most two car households. Agree?
I would suspect this mileage skew between new and old cars to be vastly greater if/when an EV/PHEV with a durable and able power storage system arrived.
Probably in the most optimistic of worlds, the time for the PHEV or EV to take a significant bite of new car sales is what...five years(?). We have a long time to go. Better start firing up those coal gassification plants and burying the CO2, bringing in more diesels and crank up the biodiesel, and what not. Hopefully if a really good power system comes along, we can retrofit some older cars to speed the process along.