Electric Vehicle Pros & Cons

gagrice

That law was rescinded by the state. It went away and GM recalled the EV-1, Toyota quit selling the RAV4-EV and that was the end of the mandate. It does not look like they have moved off the dime since. The hybrids satisfied CARB and all was well with the automakers.

tpe

You must provide a product that consumers want at a price that they are willing to pay,

How many consumers? If your goal is to only produce 1,000 vehicles a year that's all the consumers you need. If Tesla or Phoenix Motorcars sell all the vehicles they manufacture it's ridiculous to say that they aren't producing a car that consumers want. There are simply producing a vehicle that not too many consumers want. That applies to a lot of products, not just autos, that are available in our market. The question becomes, can they make money with this very limited market? That remains to be seen. My guess is that they can't right now but there is the potential for future profitability and you have to start somewhere. As someone previously pointed out, Ford can't make a profit either and they sell a lot of vehicles.

Phoenix Motorcars apparently has plans for a plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Given the extremely high cost of batteries I think this is a good move. A pure EV will force the buyer to spend a lot of extra money on battery capacity that he might rarely use. PHEVs give you the majority of EV benefits at a substantially reduced cost. Some people state they aren't interested in this extra level of complexity. A PHEV has a battery, an ICE, and a generator. Sounds like just about every car on the road today.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LAW04825042007-1.htm

Mr_Shiftright

The problem with plugs-ins in that whenever you run a battery all the way down and then recharge it, you will shorten battery life considerably vis a vis a true hybrid like a Prius which never allows the batteries to discharge very much.

tpe

That certainly used to be the case but is no longer an issue with some of these new battery chemistry's. In particular the one that Phoenix Motorcars plans on using. It's made by Altairnano and does not possess as high an energy density as other Li-ion batteries on the market. That's a bad thing from a pure EV perspective because it means you have to carry around more weight. But when designing a PHEV other factors become more important, like the one you mentioned. The Altairnano battery has been tested through 10,000 full charge/discharge cycles and still maintains 90% of its charging capacity. For a PHEV with a 30 mile all electric range that would allow for 300,000 miles of all electric driving. Not much of a limiting factor.

Mr_Shiftright

90% is pretty darn good. I would have expected 60% or something like that.

Of course, we always like an INDEPENDENT testing agency rather than what appears in a company's PR sheets.

The consumer can't solely rely on the interested party as the source of the information. Product publicity can become as faith-based as religion sometimes.

tpe

I thought that I had read where these results were confirmed by an independent source but I couldn't find it. Actually Altairnano's press release said that in-house testing showed their batteries maintained over 85% charge capacity after 15,000 deep charge/discharge cycles. I agree that they are hardly an objective source but these claims could be grossly exaggerated and you'd still have an exceptional product. I think for a PHEV any battery capable of at least 3,000 deep charge/discharge cycles would be adequate.

Mr_Shiftright

If it's not an independent source, I generally don't believe a word of what a PR release says. PR releases might spur me to further investigation, which may prove true, but as a primary source of information, I personally never count on it for making any kind of decision or conclusion. So many of these companies have proven to be false prophets!

reddroverr

If for the sake of this exercise we take $75k for the battery of the phoenix which will get you, say 120 miles per charge (the site states 100+). You can extrapolate to a cost of $25k battery cost for a Volt to get 40 miles all electric. Is that good enough? I don't know, maybe if gas continues to stay over three bucks and the car has some pizazz.

reddroverr

That law was rescinded by the state. It went away and GM recalled the EV-1, Toyota quit selling the RAV4-EV and that was the end of the mandate. It does not look like they have moved off the dime since. The hybrids satisfied CARB and all was well with the automakers.

I am not so sure about that.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevreview/zev_review_staffreport.pdf

reddroverr

Different technologies evolve in different ways and in their own times. Battery technology has indeed improved, and that is the main driver of an EV or PHEV. we do need more improvement.

reddroverr

It doesn't have to be a single reason. Now with all the ferver about global warming and the price and who is supported by oil money, it may have done somewhat better.

reddroverr

I think I said I would prefer a straight EV for lack of complexity.

However, the SPHEV (do we have enough letters yet?) could be somewhat simpler than might appear.

Simplified or elimination of what we think of as a standard type transmission

Starter could possibly be eliminated.

Alternator?

It would be really nice if the engine could be air cooled to get rid of radiators and hoses and such.

If it is going to cost me more, how much would be determined by the capabilities of both vehicles, then I guess SPHEV is for me.

tpe

That $75k battery pack can hold 35 kWh of energy. So the cost is a little over $2k per kWh. That is simple too expensive for widespread adoption. A spokesperson for Altairnano has stated with larger economies of scale they would expect this price to drop to under $1000 per kWh. Still very expensive. I've seen other reports that state with a high enough volume you could get the price down to $500 per kWh. Now we're in the ballpark. The Chevy Volt would need a 10 kWh battery pack to provide 40 mile all electric range. If the cost of this battery pack was $5k and it lasted the lifetime of the vehicle this would be marketable. Even at this greatly reduced price the cost of a battery pack that would provide 200 mile range would be $25k. That's going to be a tough sell to a large market. It's for this reason I believe PHEVs will be the logical next/evolutionary step towards an EV society. Of course higher gas prices, government intervention, and/or a major technological breakthrough could change everything.

Mr_Shiftright

History certainly suggests that you are right. The steam and electric cars were wiped off the face of the earth, for instance, by one simple device....the electric starter motor for gasoline cars.

The gas-guzzling American car was driven to near-extinction by the gas "crises" of '73 and '79 and the Japaneses auto industy came to prosperity and dominance by some amazing strokes of good luck---all their ducks just lining up in one moment in history. Honda should have paid OPEC some big bonus checks :P

I think the world of "technical breakthroughs" has changed though. I think technology evolves much more slowly than it used to, because of the vast exchange of information we have now. I don't think you'll see anything as dramatic as the light bulb replacing the candle in a matter of months, like in the old days.

reddroverr

I am pretty sure I read the Volt will have a 16kwh battery.

Fortunately there are several companies working on battery technology. Let's hope one of them can make it cost effective.

I think a $10k battery pack or even more, is probably good enough considering the greatly reduced fuel consumption of a Volt type car... IF the battery is as functional as Altair claims. I would consider up to $35k or so total car cost and believe me, I have never paid close to that for a vehicle. But, that of course depends on if i think a better cheaper model is a year or so away. I really want to stop importing oil...But I recognize I am weird.

jeffyscott

The most I ever paid for a vehicle is about $21K and I sure would not pay $35K.

If I drive 10,000 miles per year, gas will cost me about $1000 per year. A $5000 extra cost for battery would be a 5 year payback and double my "investment" in 10 years. This is about a 7% return and is pretty close to what I would find acceptable...maybe I'd go as high as $7000. $10K definitely not.

Of course, if you drive a lot more miles then a higher price is going to be acceptable.

tpe

I am pretty sure I read the Volt will have a 16kwh battery

That's probably correct but this is based upon a design where you intentionally avoid complete discharge in order to extend the battery pack's life. If that becomes a non-issue and your goal is 40 electric miles you could go with a smaller battery pack. The Volt doesn't appear to be a large vehicle and should be capable of 4 miles per kWh. That's what the Toyota RAV4 EV was able to get. One of the companies that GM has given R&D money to is A123 Systems. They have developed a Li-ion battery that is already on the market in Dewalt power tools. It supposedly has almost identical characteristics to the Altairnano battery. I like their chances for success.

reddroverr

Yikes! Gas is up to 3.20 here, and that is at the very cheapest station for regular. You are probably right that $5k is about the most normal people would accept added to the cost. I would like to have the peace of mind of more stable electic power...both in price and supply. If the major oil terror attacks had taken place in Saudi, we may be looking at rationing pretty fast and even more outrageous prices. If thebest we can do is an added 10k we are probably looking at alternative fuels and fuel sources, diesels and improved mileage standard hybrids rather than electric or PHEV.

reddroverr

LEt's hope one or more of these companies can deliver at a practical price. I would feel a bit better about altair if they have partnered with a major.

gagrice

The bottom line is they let the automakers off the hook for 10% ZEV cars by 1998. They have amended the mandate so many times I don't think it means much of anything. Now you can get almost any VW as PZEV. Just about every automaker has a car that will fill the bill. Will they sell in CA is the question? You can set 100 cars on the lot and if folks don't want the 10 PZEV cars have you broken the mandate?

Mr_Shiftright

Not sure California is the right market to "test" the saleability of EVs. We drive too much here. Perhaps small crowded cities like San Francisco would be ideal, but LA and San Jose are big sprawling places and you can rack up miles far too easily for any present day EV to handle comfortably.

I would think the big east coast cities would be ideal for EV marketing, and maybe retirement communities. Also I could see
Portland, Seattle, etc.

jeffyscott

Mandating sales of this or that is a dumb idea. If the govenment is going to manipulate markets, it would be better and more effective to do it via taxes.

reddroverr

Interesting aircar. It seems to have a lot of similar characteristics to an EV.

Must be a problem here somewhere. Seems pretty good. I'll read more..



http://www.theaircar.com/faq.html

I am not much of an internationalist when it comes to regulations...but it seems some standardization would be nice. For instance, why can't I get the 50+ mpg diesel Yaris? Perhaps the almighty govt should make some exceptions for vehicles that are high mileage and low emmissions for the near term.

tpe

I saw a marketwire report yesterday that said Altairnano has entered into a contract to provide 34 more battery packs to Phoenix Motorcars. The price is 2.2 million. That's almost $65k per battery pack. Less than the original $75k that they charged for the first delivery but still extremely expensive. How are they selling this vehicle for $45k?

Mr_Shiftright

It would certainly make more sense to relax diesel emissions a bit than promote ethanol, which is a proven pollutant as bad as any diesel.

tpe

It seems that almost all the recent headline regarding ethanol are negative. I'm reading a lot of stories about how this approach is driving up the price of food, a hidden tax. People seem to almost always favor government subsidies and tax credits to disincentives like tax hikes. It comes down to the old saying, "there is no free lunch". Subsidies always result in a hidden tax popping up somewhere else.

Mr_Shiftright

You are absolutely correct. Ethanol is just a hidden subsidy. Recent computer modeling indicates that smog would increase with extensive use of ethanol, and the modeling predicted an additional couple hundred respiratory deaths a year as a result. More Smog + More Deaths? Gee, what a great idea.

reddroverr

pretty dull around here so let's try a little hypothetical.

GM is reported to be seeking a $3k price for their Volt battery. So, for the sake of this exercise let's assume:

$1500 = 20 all electric miles
$3000 = 40 " " "
$4500 = 60 " " "
$6000 = 80 " " "
$9000 = 120 " " "
$12000 = 160 " " "

Is 40 the sweet spot? At 20 would people often not bother with plugging in at night? After all, you are getting 50 mpg anyway. Would anyone opt for a non-hybrid if the range were 160 and you could charge in ten minutes.. and say the states installed chargers at all rest stops and various other locations? We should assume that since some other components are eliminated that the cost would be substantially less than the $9k additional that is inferred.

When I think about it, it seems 40 is the sweet spot, given the relatively high mpg when the ICE kicks in anyway.

tpe

I think that 40 miles is the sweetspot because it's at that point a good percentage of drivers would use zero gasoline on a typical day. That will be very appealing. Also while the cost of increasing your all electric range will be linear the amount you save on gas definitely won't be. This 40 mile all electric range may reduce your fuel consumption by 75%. Obviously spending $6k for 80 mile all electric range can't reduce your consumption by 150%. So from a financial perspective there will definitely be diminishing returns on investing in bigger battery packs.

I saw that $3k target price. I hope that GM can achieve this but I also hope they don't make this the criteria for when they put the car into production. Even if it's more expensive at first get it on the road and sell it at a loss. That's what Toyota did with the Prius and GM now admits that it was as wise move on their part.

michael2003

Since I have a longer daily commute, I would pick a slightly higher all electric range. I wish that the manufacturer would allow for increased range as an option to allow for those of us with varying range needs.

Also, allowing for a longer range would allow GM to meet their lifetime mileage expectations immediately instead of waiting until a 40 mile range battery could be improved enough to reach their lifetime range expectancy.

tpe

I wish that the manufacturer would allow for increased range as an option to allow for those of us with varying range needs.

It seems to me that this is something that should be easily configurable based on the driver's needs, up to a point. There will be a space limitation for additional batteries. I actually think that a lot of people would opt for shorter range, maybe 20 miles, if it could save them a couple thousand on the purchase price. Additionally it would make the car lighter, thus more efficient.

reddroverr

I think it might be an interesting study in human nature as to how people would utilize these capabilities.

At 20, you are to the point where I think a lot of the time it would not even be utilized. Say, if you sleep over at a friends house, there may or may not be the capacity or desire to plug in. Even if at home, you are already getting 50 mpg....20 is not much in the way of cost. Even at 40 one wonders how much slippage there would be.

I do think 40 is probably about right given the projected (hoped for) battery cost.

they could certainly be configurable. If the Volt is able to pull it off, I think there will be a rush to this type of vehicle and within a few years I am thinking various electric mileages. would be available. I would like a configuration that would give me some piece of mind in case of a gas supply interuption. Though at 40 electric and 50 gas, a couple five gallon cans in the garage would go a long way.

tpe

What I really like is that Bob Lutz, GM's chairman, is saying that the Volt is their most important vehicle. I agree. If they can pull it off they have gone from playing catch-up to being a leader. I'm pulling for them.

reddroverr

It is good to see Lutz out stumping for this car, they ARE serious. GM would be good...U-S-A, U-S-A..mostly I am just glad to see the majors working on the problem in earnest...finally. I am sure the Volt and other recent developments have lit a little fire under Toyota and Honda.

larsb

Hands on test drive with Phoenix EV

reddroverr

nice. there is some question about the cost of the battery being more than the selling price of the car, but if they can't iron that out (or it isn't just an up front pricing illusion), they won't be around long.

says he didn't use the brakes on the test drive. appears like the brakes might last forever...saving more money and hassle.

Sounds like a great vehicle for certain fleet usage and for those who wish to go green with a second car. If the battery will last 27 years, then the car should have pretty good value as it ages....of course if better electrics or other options come along, it will lose more.

I have a hope that at some point we will be able to take those old high mileage cars we have floating around and convert them over in a cost effective manner. I know some companies convert Prius' and do other conversions to EV, but it is not very practical from what I've seen.

Mr_Shiftright

The Zenn is being marketed and sold by a dealer in my home town. It's an actual passenger car (a "real" car), looks something like a small crossover, like a Scion xA. It is rated for a speed of 25 mph for a range of 35 miles and costs $13,000.

The marketing is for a "city only car" naturally, but as far as I can tell, it is presently the most car-like,useful, viable EV that you can actually buy right now at anything resembling a reasonable price.

The car's mpg equivalent, in terms of costs to charge it up, is 245 mpg.

The company is working on patenting some kind of parallel plate capacitor, which, if successful, will boost the range of this vehicle 2 to 3 fold and will cut the charging time and weight way down. Possibly, with installation of this new capacitor, there will be enough room with removal of the lead acid technology to install rear seats and thus give the vehicle 4-seat capacity to go along with the range increase.

Apparently, any Zenn can be retro-fitted with this new capacitor for about the same cost as the lead-acid battery pak replacement.

http://www.zenncars.com/

What I do like about this car is that it is "real". You can go buy one tomorrow if you like.

tpe

The company is working on patenting some kind of parallel plate capacitor

Actually the company working on the ultra-capacitor is EEstor. Zenn recently invested something like 2.5 million in EEstor. Last year ZENN was saying that they would be using this revolutionary storage device to power its neighborhood vehicles by 2007. Well 2007 is almost half over and as far as I know there is not even a prototype vehicle in existence or even a prototype storage device that would be of the size to power a vehicle. The latest headline out of EEstor is that they have finally achieved a level of purity in one of their components used to produce these ultra-capacitors. I get the sense that if we ever see this device it is a long ways off.

One more thing. For ZENN's 2.5 million investment they received a 2.5% ownership in EEstor. If this is truly a viable technology that can live up to its hype that sounds awfully cheap. We're talking about something that would make Li-ion and NiMH batteries obsolete. That would have to equate to revenue in the billions.

jeffyscott

Limiting the speed to 25 mph is not going to work well in whole lot of places. I think in a lot of situations you will be an obstruction to other traffic that wants to go faster. Maybe if were 40 mph, that would avoid being treated like an obstacle by other vehicles.

For about the same price, you will soon be able to get a smart car. Granted the smart will not get close to 245 mpg (what electric rate is that based on?), but 40 mpg plus is pretty good. The smart can, if you choose, also be driven anywhere at normal speeds and is backed by a real automotive manufacturer with a long history and reputation to protect.

Mr_Shiftright

I'm not sure Smart's reputation is worth protecting, but anyway....

Well the Zenn is marketed strictly as a "city car". I agree 25 mph is a bit too slow--I'd prefer 35 as that is the speed limit on just about any city street in America.

The Smart makes no sense whatsoever...it's expensive for what you get and the real world fuel mileage is not very impressive.

They really need to put the Smart to sleep before it loses more money.

Yeah, that alleged capacitor is a long timing coming, ain't it? "They" say they are "testing it".

But I brought up the ZENN because it's for sale here and now, and that's the present state of "real" EV cars that look like cars and aren't golf carts.

MrShiftright
Visiting Host

gagrice

The Xebra would be the vehicle to beat currently. It will go 40 MPH and is legal on San Diego surface streets. The Zenn would not be legal on any streets posted higher than 35 MPH. Either one is more novelty than practical. I was more interested in the Xebra until I drove it. Very basic and not as quiet as I would have liked. It would never justify its price on gas savings on just using my PU truck.

Mr_Shiftright

Nothing with 3 wheels is a "real" car IMO.

ZAP is achieving range by cutting weight drastically, and it shows in the final product; however, I've not driven either the Xebra or the Zenn yet but I intend to do this, so I'll let you know what I think in a comparo.

tpe

I agree 25 mph is a bit too slow--I'd prefer 35 as that is the speed limit on just about any city street in America.

I agree. That would actually make the cars safer. These cars can still be hit by other cars travelling faster. In fact if they are only going 25 mph on 35 mph streets this likelihood has probably increased.

Mr_Shiftright

I was reading some comments from people here in my town who bought a ZENN and use it for their local delivery business. They are very pleased it seems, but they do comment that they keep to the right lane on the four lane city streets, as they don't quite have the speed for the left lane.

They also say they are getting celebrity treatment from passers-by. That's a good sign, since positive reinforcement from the community is a great selling point and market motivator.

MrShiftright
Visiting Host

jeffyscott

I'm not sure Smart's reputation is worth protecting, but anyway....

Well, I was referring to the owner Mercedes, or Daimler-?, or whatever the correct corporate entity is called now.

Personally there is no way I would buy either the smart, this Zenn thing, or Zebra :sick: ...I'm just saying, if I had to choose one of them the smart would likely be the preferred one.

I thought the Zenn pretty much did look like a golf cart (and the specs are kind of golf-cartish, too)...or at least a golf cart/automobile hybrid .

I guess I am still waiting to see a real electric car that can be bought now.

tpe

http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1258

reddroverr

On the surface, this blows away any of the options listed above. With a top speed of 65 it would be usable in my area. 25 mph with the limited Zenn range? Not a chance.

"The Air Car uses compressed air to push its engine’s pistons. It is anticipated that approximately 6000 Air Cars will be cruising the streets of India by 2008. If the manufacturers have no surprises up their exhaust pipes the car will be practical and reasonably priced. The CityCat model will clock out at 68 mph with a driving range of 125 miles.

Refueling is simple and will only take a few minutes. That is, if you live nearby a gas station with custom air compressor units. The cost of a fill up is approximately $2.00. If a driver doesn't have access to a compressor station, they will be able to plug into the electrical grid and use the car’s built-in compressor to refill the tank in about 4 hours.

The compressed air technology is basically just a way of storing electrical energy without the need for costly, heavy, and occasionally toxic batteries. So, in a sense, this is an electric car. It just doesn't have an electric motor.

But don't let anyone tell you this is an "emissions free" vehicle. Sure, the only thing coming out of the tailpipe is air. But, chances are, fossil fuels were burned to create the electricity. In India, that mostly means coal. But the carbon emissions per mile of these things still far outdoes any gasoline car on the market.

Unfortunately, the streets of North America may never see the Air Car, though; it's light-weight, glued-together fiberglass construction might not do so well in our crash tests. However, that does not mean the Air car is confined to the sub-continent. Nègre has signed deals to bring its design to 12 more countries, including Germany, Israel and South Africa."

http://green.yahoo.com/index.php?q=node/315

This is part of what I meant when I mentioned above about standardization of autos. Personally, I think we should maybe let some high mileage vehicles in that aren't quite up to snuff on our standards. After all, motorcycles aren't illegal. If you want to make it an adults only car, then so be it...see if it can pass muster on that basis.

I like how they poo-poohed it on emissions basis. We get a lot of power from hydro here in the PNW. Eslewhere, it is much easier to build renewables and nukes or cleaner coal. wwarming or not, reducing foreign oil is my concern.

That all said, something about compressed air propulsion brings up a visions of seal failures.

And of course, it isn't available NOW.

tpe

I'm very skeptical. One of the obstacles that fuel cell vehicles face is being able to store hydrogen at a high enough pressure. The tanks that are used are very heavy. It seems like this will be a limitation here also. In addition as the tank's pressure starts going down it seems like this would significantly impact performance. That's not a characteristic of modern batteries, which produce a fairly flat level of power up to the point that they are almost fully depleted. I also believe that the conversion loss incurred from converting electrical energy into pressurized air is probably greater than storing this energy in a battery. And can this pressurized air now produce as much mechanical energy in this air driven piston engine as the stored electrical energy would have produced in an electric motor. I doubt it, but could be wrong.

jeffyscott

I wonder what this thing weighs and what dimensions are...looks rather golf cartish.

The "fuel" cost come out to about 1.7 cents per mile. This is equivalent to 90-175 mpg (using $1.5-3 per gallon for gasoline/diesel price, excluding tax). I don't know that this is all that impressive if this is another unsafe, glorified golf cart.

Some real cars sold in Europe can get what, maybe 60 mpg right now. I'd imagine without safety standards and all, 100 mpg is probably doable for a very light, underpowered, golf cartish vehicle with an IC engine.

Tesla and/or Pheonix seem to be the most likely candidates to put out a "real" electric vehicle, one that is something like what we are all used to driving.

For example the Tesla car is 13 feet long and about 2700 pounds, with 92.6 inch wheel base. This is smallish, but similar to the size of some existing small sport coupes and it looks like a real car as well (at least in pictures).

Mr_Shiftright

for $125,000, the Tesla better look "real"!!

MrShiftright
Visiting Host