Electric Vehicle Pros & Cons

gagrice

I guess I don't find the Smart any more quirky than the Prius. I wonder if the truth were known if Toyota has ever made any money on hybrids. It was considered a political decision and a good advertising gimmick. It has given them a false green image they like. Has it produced any green backs in the till?

larsb

Toyota is even stupider than you think they are Gary if they are not making money on hybrids.

The pioneer in bringing production hybrid vehicles to market has just achieved a major new milestone. As of the end of May, Toyota has sold 1.047 million hybrid drive vehicles around the world since the introduction of the original Prius a decade ago.

AND THIS GEM:

"Eventually, everything will be a hybrid," according to Jim Press, president of Toyota Motor North America.

So if that guy is saying that and Toyota is losing money on the hybrids, he is either:

A. vastly uninformed about the financial side of the company, or
B. a great liar, or
C. a complete flake, or
D. a victim of incorrect job promotion.

I think it's ludicrous to think that Toyota could possibly be doing anything but making money on their hybrids.

PS This just hit the wires after my last sentence, so I added it:

Toyota dropping 2008 Camry Hybrid base price by $1000:

Would they lower the price if they were ALREADY in the red? NOT!!

Mr_Shiftright

Well you can't blame Gary or anybody for suspecting a Japanese automaker of "dumping" product at a loss on the market (illegal though it might be---prove it!) but I'd have to agree that Toyota is selling a lot of hybrids worldwide and this must be somewhat profitable.

The question in my mind is whether the hybrids help them capture market share or if they are just selling against their own products. I dunno, haven't a clue.

We have to remember that the Prius is a "real" car in size, seating capacity, storage and comfort. It has vastly more appeal than a SMART in that regard. I can't say I had a thrill driving them but they are very comfortable and appeal to people who normally don't think much about cars.

gagrice

According to Toyota the first Prius brought to the USA cost Toyota $37k to build and they were selling them at $20k even. I assume they have cut those costs by a lot. It is the intangible green image that you cannot put a price on. I am sure the Prius is a much more practical vehicle than the Smart. Both goofy looking and appeal to similar people.

As far as Jim Press making all those bold statements. I don't think he speaks for the big guys at Toyota. He is a white fall guy. Even Bill Ford with a lot more stroke at Ford than Press has with Toyota, made the same bold statements about putting hybrid drive in all their cars. Neither company has added any significant hybrids to the fleet. The LS600h will be a total sham. Who needs a $30k hybrid add-on that loses 3 MPG out on the highway? The GS450h is not selling. The HH & RX are both discounted heavily in the major market CA.

It is all political rhetoric to get the greenies fired up to go out and help sell cars.

Mr_Shiftright

I think the problem with the expensive hybrids was the *marketing* of the 450h and 600h. People simply do not understand what these cars are, and are not. This was not toyota's best effort.

But Prius made American automakers look like clueless, flat-footed fools in the eyes of the public, which of course was the intent.

Marketing "green" is extremely profitable in cars, food and lots of other areas. Any business who thinks marketing "green" isn't the way to go is going the way of the dinosaur IMO.

gagrice

The sad part is a company like Honda that is green across the board gets left in the dust with all the hype and glamor Toyota is able to buy.

I agree you need to be green to be seen.

Mr_Shiftright

Yeah that's true isn't it? Honda did get pushed to the sidelines. Well we live in a world of flash and hype. It seems to take years to filter out the BS and finally decide if something or someone was really all that good.

jeffyscott

MAZDA6 -- how did you get a Mazda6 for $16,000? That's $3,000 under invoice for the stripped model. Was it a used car? did you mean a Mazda3?

I asked and I recieved .

It was new (7 mi on the OD), it is a 6 not a 3 and it is not "stripped"...it's a 4 cyl SVE automatic. There was a $2000 rebate. It was the end of a slow month, I guess...but others have gotten similar deals.

Mr_Shiftright

Live and learn...I don't see how a dealer can sell a car for less than he pays for it...still.... even with a rebate that car costs more than $16,000 totally stripped. Was this a 2006 model perhaps? Was there a trade in?

reddroverr

I looked at the I-Sport 6. 19,725 is list incl. destination. I am not a feature hog, but it has standard what I would want ......CC, power locks, etc. Auto trans is extra. $2000 rebate takes you to $17,725. nice deal at $16k...if 21 mpg city is good enough for you.

Mr_Shiftright

Only 21? That's a bit thirsty....even an EVO does better 'n that....but at that smashing price, you've already saved a bundle of $$$.

That's what I really want...an EVO hybrid!

jeffyscott

No trade and it was a 2007. They had a $500 per unit bonus, if they met some target for the month and I guess they needed an extra sale or two to get there.

BTW, gas milage is actually 24 mpg on the sticker, 21 is the estimate under the new system. EVO is 19 city under old system so actually 5 mpg less.

So anyway, for me the $6000 savings over a prius covers all gas for about 48,000 miles and it would take maybe 96,000 miles to break even...assuming the prius would double my mpg. I think a hybrid or electric would need pay for itself in no more than about 5 years or maybe 50,000 miles to interest me.

Mr_Shiftright

Well points well-taken. Of course a pure EV will better those #s considerably and should get about 4 times your gas mileage.

I don't think a PHEV could hit 84 mpg, but I don't know.

jeffyscott

Hmm...since I typically only drive about 20 miles per day, wouldn't I get the equivalent of 100-200 mpg or something like that even in a PHEV? I would expect a PHEV would be about the same as a pure EV for someone like me...since I'd mostly never use anything but electricity.

Mr_Shiftright

Well in your case then you'd have to calculate usage in terms of dollar equivalent of electricity to gas (about $1 a gallon equivalent I am told).

jeffyscott

I'm not sure exactly what you mean, but what I once did, just out of curiosity, was figure what the equivalent mileage of a pure electric might be based on the cost of fuel. I used figures from Tesla on electricity consumption and my electric rates.

IIRC, something like a cost equivalent to getting 100-300 mpg on gasoline is what I came up with, depending on the assumptions I used. Since fuel for my gasoline car costs 10-15 cents per mile and my electric rate is about 10 cents/kwh, it must have come out around 1 to 2.5 cents per mile for the electric...or about 4-10 mi. per kWh.

Mr_Shiftright

yeah that's what I meant. I was just quoting what it would cost in electricity to drive an EV the same distance as a gallon of gas. EV experts claim $1 a gallon equivalent. So I guess if you reversed it, and said that "EV fuel costs 1/3 the amount of gas engine fuel, then a normal 35 mpg car is getting 105 mpg".

tpe

I think that when people start talking about EVs in terms of mpg it really confuses the issue. It all depends on the price of gasoline. IMO, they should just stick with cost per mile, which as has been pointed out, will be about 2-3 cents per mile.

Mr_Shiftright

Maybe CPC would be better? "Cost Per Charge"?

PF_Flyer

Yea, cost per charge. CPC :P
What's it's really coming down to isn't so much that the motors and electronics aren't turning the electricity into work/movement efficiently enough, it's that the fuel tank (battery capacity) is too small to be practical at this point. It would be great if the battery could be recharged as fast as you can refuel a car now, but that's another issue that's related to the capacity issue.

PF's Alternate Route

gagrice

Is that a Yugo or whut? I would rather have this one.

larsb

That 'vertible looks like a decapitation waiting to happen.

tpe

It would be great if the battery could be recharged as fast as you can refuel a car now,

Yes and it would be great if you could refuel a car as cheaply as you can recharge a battery pack. It would be great if an ICE required as little maintenance as an EV. It would be great if an ICE ran of a fuel that could be domestically produced. Granted an EV will be a trade-off, a good one from my perspective. Some people will say that they'd rather spend the extra $30 and be able to get in and out of a gas station in 5 minutes. For other people saving the $30 will be worth the inconvenience of the longer recharge time. Keep in mind that this will only be an issue during long trips. The vast majority of the time you will have recharged at night while your car's just sitting there anyway. This might take all of 15 seconds to plug-in, which will probably be less total time then is spent going to the gas station every 2 weeks.

Mr_Shiftright

This from The Week Magazine:

"57% of Prius owners said they bought the gas-saving hybrid because 'it makes a statement about me'. Only 36% cited higher fuel economy as a top reason for buying the car"

jeffyscott

IMO, they should just stick with cost per mile, which as has been pointed out, will be about 2-3 cents per mile.

Sure, but that should still be followed by something like "that is equivalent to 100 mpg, if gasoline costs $3 per gallon". I think I currently spend about 2-3 cents per mile on maintenance on top of 12 cents per mile for gas.

tpe

I think I currently spend about 2-3 cents per mile on maintenance on top of 12 cents per mile for gas.

I believe 2-3 cents per mile on maintenance is probably low and based upon nothing breaking down. Edmund's TCO puts the 5 yr (75,000 mile) mile maintenance costs for a 4 cyl Camry at $4,454, almost 6 cents per mile and that doesn't include repairs. I'd guess that for an EV you could cut this figure in half.

daysailer

"I'd guess that for an EV you could cut this figure in half."

Not likely. You must account for the cost of battery replacement. The 100+kmi life of hybrid batteries does not relate to the EV or PHEV since hybrids operate their batteries in the upper 50% charge realm which is essential for extended life. The very nature of any vehicle that attempts to maximize the EV operating mode will involve much deeper discharge and MUCH shorter battery life.

Unless and until the magic battery is actually in production, EV operating costs will remain many times that of the vehicles they seek to replace.

daysailer

"57% of Prius owners said they bought the gas-saving hybrid because 'it makes a statement about me'.

If the majority of purchases are for irrational reasons, then any attempt at logical discussion is futile.

tpe

EV operating costs will remain many times that of the vehicles they seek to replace.


By many times I'll assume you mean at least 2. So if a typical ICE costs about 18 cents per mile to operate than an EV will cost at least 36 cents per mile to operate or $36k over 100,000 miles. Not likely. There are people right now driving EV conversions with lead acid battery packs. These packs need to be replaced every year (15,000 miles) for a cost of under $1,000. So in 100,000 miles they will have spent around $6,000 on batteries and at most $3,000 on electricity. Where does the other $27,000 come from?

tpe

If the majority of purchases are for irrational reasons, then any attempt at logical discussion is futile.

Is it your opinion that any purchase that doesn't pass some cost analysis is irrational? People make frivolous purchases all the time. To do otherwise would result in a very austere and boring existence.

apeweek

Your assertion that '...EV operating costs will remain many times that of the vehicles they seek to replace.' is absolutely wrong, and in fact low operating cost is the principal advantage of EVs.

I will speak from my own experience as an EV owner. I drive an EV conversion. These are inexpensive (under $5000 for a used one, in my case) and extremely cheap to drive. Here's a link about finding cheap EVs (my own EV is pictured at the top):

http://squidoo.com/cheap-electric-car

My battery pack cost me $850 (not including deposits) and, with appropriate care, lasts for about 20,000 miles, or about 4 cents/mile. Lead-acid batteries can be killed at 10,000 miles with poor care, or nursed to 30,000 miles, but for reference, here's a patent link that mentions lifespans for various traction battery types, including my 20,000 mile number:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/5258242.html

My EV gets about 4 miles per kilowatt-hour, a common number for EVs. Here's a link mentioning this same number for the Toyota RAV4 EV:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2005/083005Korthof.shtml

Finally, I am using a split electric rate - available in many places - so I can get cheap overnight electricity. Here's a document showing my 3 cents/KWH rate. It's rate D1.7 in this document:

http://my.dteenergy.com/myAccount/pdfs/rates.pdf

That makes my cost for electricity under 1 cent per mile. With battery replacement, then, my total cost per mile is 5 cents.

Contrast this to gasoline. An 18mpg car, with gas at $3.60/gallon, costs 20 cents per mile, JUST FOR GAS. That's FOUR TIMES more expensive. Substitute a super fuel efficient car, and lower gas prices, if you like. It's still easily half as expensive to fuel an EV. And the EV needs almost NO maintenance. No oil changes, coolant, tune-ups, filters, in fact, no engine maintenance at all. Electric motors have just one moving part, and can last decades. I would argue, in fact, that my battery replacement cost is less than the maintenance costs on a typical car.

You know the best part? I use my EV for business miles, which means I can take the standard IRS deduction of 48.5 cents per mile - on a car that costs me 5 cents/mile to drive. The government is paying me to drive my car!

daysailer

Implicit in my reference to vehicles that EV's "seek to replace" is that they be a replacement, not merely usable in some very limited subset of ICE applications. Such vehicles are not replacements, they are at best an additional vehicle. To do so with present battery technologies requires impractically large capacity batteries operated to deep discharge with resultant short life. It is ludicrous to even mention lead-acid conversions in that context! Even purpose-built EVs have not approached the performance/utility/cost of the ICE, let alone conversions.

Mr_Shiftright

I don't think such decisions are "irrational" but rather "non-quantitative". Crucial marketing decisions worth many millions of dollars are made on the premise that such "irrationality" is, in some sense, measurable and predictable.

If the Prius buyer feels it makes a "statement about me", this is no different than the Aspen condo buyer or the buyer of Versace items---just a different context. This is all "feel good stuff".

daysailer

In my opinion, marketing seeks to exploit the irrational tendencies of buyers BECAUSE they are irrational and provide a means to move products that could not succeed on merit.

tpe

not merely usable in some very limited subset of ICE applications.

Interesting choice of terms. If a person primarily uses his vehicle to go to and from work and run errands and an EV can accomplish this I'm not sure that represents a "very limited" subset of ICE applications. It's the times that an EV is not suitable that represents the more limited subset.

Mr_Shiftright

Perhaps that's true but to exploit it, it has to be "there" in some fashion...a target that can be "hit"...so it seems that things like "thinking green" are more than mere thought-bubbles...these concepts are somehow ingrained in societal pressures and then manifest themselves...or materialize if you will...somehow a car buyer comes to associate recycled brown paper towels, a bin full of empty plastic bottles, and saving the whales with a Prius.

Pretty neat hat-trick if you ask me.

daysailer

slice it any way you like, it does not change the fact that if an EV cannot serve ALL of the purposes for which I own a vehicle, then it cannot be a replacement. I must buy and maintain an additional vehicle if I want an EV.

daysailer

Oh, emotions are very much "there", but that does not make them rational.

That survey result doesn't suggest that people want to BE "green" but rather wan't to be SEEN as green. A huge difference! Doing a good thing is rational and it doesn't matter whether anyone else knows it.

tpe

I must buy and maintain an additional vehicle if I want an EV.

I suspect that would be true for most people considering an EV. I also suspect that most of these people would find themselves driving the EV the majority of the time because it would usually be the superior choice for the given application.

Mr_Shiftright

Ummmm....I wouldn't go as far as you do about what's going on in Prius owner's heads. My experience has been that they genuinely believe they are "doing" something pro-active for the environment and for the energy dependency issues. I don't think it is merely a conscious "to be seen" motive, I think it's deeper.

Whether it's REALLY doing anything, well that's a whole other discussion. Americans are apt to think they are "doing" something about their drinking problem by listening to motivational cassette tapes while drinking. :P

As my good friend once noted in his newspaper column "why am I at a fund-raising party to save first-growth forests while standing on the host's redwood deck?"

daysailer

Then attributable to ownership of an EV are the costs of maintaining two vehicles rather than one.

apeweek

There are many vehicle types for sale that do not meet all the potential needs of auto drivers.

Motorcycles.
Motor homes.

Why are these for sale? If these markets can be served, why not also serve the demand for EVs?

Furthermore, what if one of my 'needs' as a driver is the need to drive inexpensively, and to no longer buy gas? The EV fills this need best.

Not all drivers have the same needs.

apeweek

...Then attributable to ownership of an EV are the costs of maintaining two vehicles rather than one.

Depends on your perspective. Most of my driving happens in the EV. I drive the wife's gas car occasionally, so that's the exceptional case, for me.

Therefore, attributable to the ownership of the wife's gas car, are the costs of maintaining two vehicles rather than one.

If we both had EVs, we could get by with renting a gas-powered car once every month or two, or taking public transportation. I think this would work for many people.

reddroverr

"57% of Prius owners said they bought the gas-saving hybrid because 'it makes a statement about me'. "


Welcome to America!

Seriously, polls can be misleading. Perhaps that was one reason of several, or that statement encompassed many things in the minds of the responders.

gagrice

Good post, I like it. Keep us posted with your experience. I may have to try my hand at a home built EV.

gagrice

an EV cannot serve ALL of the purposes for which I own a vehicle

I would agree. However I have tried my whole driving life to find the vehicle that satisfied my every need. I usually end up with another PU truck. Yet it lacks the ability to travel with others in comfort. I propose there is no perfect vehicle for every need. I think an EV would be great for all my 3 mile trips to town.

PF_Flyer

Given current technology, what kind of ideas could make EV's work?

I'm SURE someone has thought of this one before, but I happened to be in the room when my daughter was futzing with her digital camera and changing batteries from the charger to the camera.

A standardized, easily changeable battery pack would help. If you could get 100 miles on a full charge, then pull up to a "battery station" where you would swap to a fully charged battery pack in a few minutes and go on your way. The pack you drop off would be charged at the station for whoever came along next.
I know, complications to overcome like storage of battery packs and thing like that, but we're going to brainstorm a bit here! :shades:

Mr_Shiftright

Kinda like propane tanks?

Possible but unlike propane tanks, a defective unit exchanged for a good one results in a massive loss for the vendor. And testing a depleted battery pack is not very easy.

Big snag here.

reddroverr

Digital cameras might serve as a model for the EV. At first they were very expensive and the quality wasn't top notch. The technology has gotten better to the point that the film camera is almost extinct for most of us.

As of now, the PHEV (as promised) is the more cost efficient way to go, and offers all that an ICE does and more.

apeweek

...Given current technology, what kind of ideas could make EV's work?

I think the new emerging battery technology is sufficient to do it. First on the list are Altairnano batteries, since these are already available. The Phoenix EV, for instance, can charge in 10 minutes, and the battery pack should have a long lifetime, over 200,000 miles. ( http://phoenixmotorcars.com )

Zap also has two cars planned using Altairnanos. One of them, the Zap-X, has a 350-mile range, and puts out over 600 horsepower. ( http://www.zapworld.com/ZAPWorld.aspx?id=4560 )

Next to this, I am most excited about the EESTOR ultracapacitor-based powerpack. These also allow extremely fast charging, and should be cheaper to manufacture than any other battery technology. EESTOR has a partnership with ZENN Motor Company, of Canada ( http://zenncars.com )

On the hobbyist and car converter front, I am excited about low-cost LiFePO4 batteries from China that some hobbyists have been able to obtain. Link: http://everspring.net/product-battery.htm

Aside from the above, I think the fastest way to get EVs accepted into the hands of drivers is battery leasing. Without the batteries, electric cars would be cheaper than conventional autos (electric motors are much simpler to manufacture than gas engines.)

Drivers would then pay a fee for battery usage according to usage, which would be similar to the gasoline buying experience (except cheaper.) Battery rotation would then take place at the dealer, so that drivers always have good batteries, and bad batteries are promptly recycled.