Electric Vehicle Pros & Cons

reddroverr

Yup, I pondered such a plan for LNG or regular NG back when I thought it might be a good fuel for the future. People could exchange them at places like Costco.

It looks like a 15 minute charge is within possibility. That makes more sense to me for the if/when of EV popularity.

The changable battery plan presupposes design compatibility. The plan would have to include leased battery coverage, methinks.

reddroverr

Personally I am not a fan of leasing. Just adds expense. But, I suppose both purchase and lease could be offered.

tpe

A 100 mile battery pack would be very heavy given the current state of battery technology. For instance the battery pack in the Tesla Roadster is good for 200 miles and weighs a little over 900 lbs. So with a 100 mile battery pack you're talking about yanking something out that will weigh close to 500 lbs.

tpe

I may have sent you this link before but these people seem to have a promising technology. Unfortunately they say it won't be available to the public for another couple years.

firefly batteries

apeweek

Yes, thank you, I forgot to mention Firefly - they have reinvented the lead-acid battery in a much lighter and more powerful form. The advantage is that this is well-understood technology that will be as easy and cheap to manufacture as present-day lead-acid batteries.

PF_Flyer

A 100 mile battery pack would be very heavy given the current state of battery technology

You betcha it would be heavy! But since we're dealing in brainstorming here, my vision would have to include some standardization of design among vehicle manufacturers as well. (Hey, if you're gonna have a fantasy, have a FANTASY)

Let's say the battery pack was a wide flat thing that slid in a slot under the passenger compartment of the car and had standardized electrical connection locations as well. Since I'm dreaming, I'm even going to make it so the pack slides into the car from the left side and is removed from the right side.
So you pull your vehicle into a "refueling" bay where the lock holding the pack firmly in place is detached, and a machine pushes the fully charged pack into the slot on the left side, which pushes the spent pack out the right side, into the waiting arms of another machine that moves the pack into a recharging slot.

Ideally, the machine would be automated enough that we could have a guy named Ernie sitting there to ask if you'd like a Big Gulp while you wait :P

tpe

Well I do believe that is how battery packs will be shaped and positioned. It will be good for the center of gravity. I think that GM and others refer to it as the skateboard design. It also allows for a lot of flexibility when it comes to designing the rest of the vehicle, one platform will support a lot of models.

gprentice

Don't know if this was mentioned already - but I would like to see floor panels that lift up exposing banks of small batteries that all connect somehow to provide the required voltage/current. They could have LEDs that light up the 'bad' battery of the banks so replacement is an easy and inexpensive proposition. The batteries plug into a common 'bus' - perhaps like laptop batteries. While keeping a low center of gravity, the finacial hit of replacing defective batteries would be at a minimum. Battery technology upgrades would be easier as well down the road. The system would have to allow for extra batteries incase of many bad ones at once
It might be full of holes, but just an idea.

michael2003

If I could afford a 2nd vehicle, for only commuting locally, I don't think I'd need more than a 100 mile battery range and I couldn't foresee ever needing to have to replace the battery instead of just recharging at home.

If I only had a single vehicle and that vehicle was an EV, I could not accept any range less than 300 miles. Anything shorter would require stopping just too often. A battery that would have this range capability would, I imagine, be very expensive for the foreseeable future and I for one would not accept that I would pay such a sum for a new (latest technology) large capacity battery only to have it replaced by a service station with a battery that might die after driving a mile. Therefore the only way I could accept an EV as an only vehicle is if the range was sufficient for longer trips (of 300 miles or more) and be capable of being recharged within a short period of time.

In summary, establishing a battery replacement infrastructure does not seem like something that would be necessary to resolve any actual problem and would definitely not be worthwhile for replacement stations to become involved with. I believe a more appropriate solution would be for interstate service stations to begin preparing for a recharging infrastructure that would allow for fast recharging and for hotels to immediately begin with a limited number of bays for overnight recharging. The overnight recharging doesn't require anything special but the fast recharging infrastructure will require some development of an affordable way to be implemented.

tpe

When I was growing up my family always had station wagons. I don't think any of them could go 200 miles between fill-ups and we definitely took some long trips. If you can re-charge rapidly I think long range becomes less important. Afterall I believe that on long trips most people stop every few hours anyway to stretch their legs, get a snack, use the restroom, etc.. Developing a fast charge infrastructure will be cheap compared to a hydrogen distribution infrastructure.

With that said I'm fairly certain that most of the early adopters of EVs will have other vehicles. That's fine. A sizeable percentage of households have multiple vehicles so this won't significantly limit EV's marketability. As a second car I could easily get by with a 60 mile range. In an EV world where employers and shopping center started putting electrical outlets in their parking lots I could probably get by with less range. I personally would be interested in buying the minimal amount of battery that I would typically use with a little extra as a buffer. As battery technology improved and got less expensive I could upgrade.

gagrice

I personally would be interested in buying the minimal amount of battery that I would typically use with a little extra as a buffer.

That is my thinking. Why do I need a 100 mile range when my trip to Costco, Home Depot, Lowes, PO and the grocery store is never over 7-8 miles round trip. The batteries are the big expense. Buy just what you need for your situation. A plug in buss that was mentioned might be a good plan.

jeffyscott

I believe 2-3 cents per mile on maintenance is probably low and based upon nothing breaking down.

Yes, I guess I meant only scheduled maintenance there. This is from my own experience. I track all repair and maintenance expenses, I don't split them. The 2-3 cents per mile is what I typically have spent in the first 3-4 years. Later I have had anywhere from 6-10 cents per mile for all repairs and maintenance. On one really old low usage car, only driven about 3000 miles per year, got up to about 13 cents per mile.

reddroverr

OTOH if you are only putting on 4k miles or less a year, why bother at all?

gagrice

That is my current position. I only put 12k miles in 25 months on my PU. That included a 2100 mile trip. A second low mileage vehicle makes little sense. Just always wishing I could beat the system. I don't think it is possible. The cards are stacked against us.

reddroverr

Nothing makes sense economically for you. If you want a toy, it might be along...but I think the efforts now are going to be to put out a mainstream car that will be more expensive.

daysailer

"mainstream" and "expensive" are contradictory.

reddroverr

not really. to someone who wants a short range, slow, small vehicle...$25k is expensive. but, there are enough who pay that for a car now, to consider that price mainstream.

Mr_Shiftright

To me, "mainstream" in American today is any car you can hit with a credit card as a down payment, so $25K works :P

Right now, as your typical middle class American with no gradiose assets, I'd say my budget for an EV as a second car is about $8,000, but as a primary car, $25,000 would be okay. That's about the upper limit for me, even if the EV could do most of what an ICE does.

reddroverr

I don't blame you there. It starts to get down to what products we are going to see. I know you drive more miles a day that I do, but a phev would serve me mostly on electric. I think that will be the option for primary vehicles for awhile. I've said I would pay ~20k+ for a yaris EV with a good range etc, but with the PHEV as an option, that would be less attractive. Though simply holding on to my second car works for me...I drive em into the ground and trade-in isn't much. tpe posted over on the phev thread that A123 is planning to release a conversion kit in 2008 for current hybrids, that for $10k and in a couple hours will give them the capability or 30-40 electric miles. Now if that is possible, I think we will see some good OEM product in the not too distant future.

ronny88

ronny88

Hey there,

Sorry about that last post - a goof! Anyway, I am looking to buy my first hybrid car, but have really no idea about where to go for the best infromation. Frankly, the general the information, the better - as I really have no clue what I'm doing! The only resource on hybrids and other fuel-efficient cars that I've found that is as general as I would like is http://fuelfriendlycars.com but I would like some other hybrid car resources as well. Any suggestions? Thanks -

Ronny

reddroverr

"The company has recently expanded its nationwide network of dealer relations representatives to build, promote and support a 190-member dealer body in advance of the planned delivery of the company’s Pininfarina-designed HSV sedan in late 2008. With an MSRP of around $30,000 and an anticipated ’09 model year build of 18,000 units, it’s expected to be the first affordable, mass-produced, all-electric HSV to hit the U.S. market. The lithium ion battery-powered car achieves speeds over 80 mph and travels more than 120 miles on a single charge (for about the cost of a gallon of gas), while providing luxury features/options like advanced airbags, bluetooth and GPS. Miles’ highway-speed sedan will be complemented with an HSV crossover model in 2009. The company plans to produce 38,000 HSV units in 2010 and approximately 100,000 in 2011."

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2007/07/31/056735.html

Mr_Shiftright

You know this all sounds great except for two things:

1. Only 190 dealers (that's 4 per state)

2. Made in China

That's two big risk factors for a $30K roll of the dice. I think I'd wait 2-3 years before buying one of these.

reddroverr

That's the thing. Right now the technology will probably advance much like computers...as in more for less price. So do you want to spend 30k for a 286 chip or a commodore? Waiting for a serial hybrid seems the best bet for most at this point, unless you are an ordained early adopter.

tpe

When it comes to EVs I'd be willing to pay the premium that goes along with being an early adopter. However I'd like to have some confidence that the product I was purchasing had a certain level of quality, safety and reliability. Right now I wouldn't feel that way about an automobile coming out of China. They can't even produce safe dog food. I can't imagine sitting on one of their Li-ion battery packs. I personally think within the next couple of years there will be better options either available or on the horizon that are worth waiting for.

Mr_Shiftright

And what do you do if the dealer is 300 miles away? And who is training the dealer technicians? Do they fly to China for tech sessions? Is there a factory corporate headquarters in the US with regional parts depots and a technical school?

If this setup is anything like the way it panned out with Ural motorcycles from Russia and sold here through a limited dealer network, well lotsa luck new owners.

gagrice

Welcome to the Forum

You can buy a Hybrid from about $21k for a Honda Civic Hybrid to over $100k for a Lexus hybrid. If you are looking for great mileage only two fit the bill the Civic hybrid and Prius. Type in those two names and you will have days of reading on the subject.

gagrice

I will bet if you get a Li-Ion pack in any vehicle it will come from China. I do not think the EPA would let anyone build a battery factory in the USA for NiMh or Li-Ion batteries. They are all in Mexico or China.

tpe

I agree that all the Li-ion batteries in my laptops have been made in China. However there are a few small Li-ion manufacturers here in the US, Altairnano, EnerDel, Electro Energy Inc, and EaglePicher are some examples. These companies all plan on making the large, relatively low volume batteries suitable for hybrid and EV applications. I don't think it has much to do with the EPA since Li-ion and NiMH are not classified as hazardous/toxic materials by the EPA.

li-ion manufacturing

reddroverr

I'd pass on the china car for awhile myself. Batteries if vetted through Toyota or some other major would probably be ok.

reddroverr

"The city will amend its contract for the road project to pay for the installation of charging stations.

Several businesses have installed charging stations at Lambrix’s request. The only charging station in Lacey is at the Department of Ecology building, according to Lambrix’s Web site, www.pluginolympia.com"

http://www.theolympian.com/laceytoday/story/178361.html

daysailer

"Right now, as your typical middle class American with no gradiose assets, I'd say my budget for an EV as a second car is about $8,000, but as a primary car, $25,000 would be okay. That's about the upper limit for me, even if the EV could do most of what an ICE does."

Sorry to be so slow to respond, but your comment is EXACTLY the view that I have been expressing for years! A limited duty vehicle will not garner substantial market share unless it can be had for much less than the cost of existing "mainstream" vehicles. We're not likely to see a "full service" EV for $25K, if at all.

reddroverr

how about applied or actual cost?

If a car has 80-90% less maintanance and repair. What is that worth? No tranny, alternator, radiator..yada yada.

If the battery goes 300k miles as is touted? What is that car worth at 150k miles as opposed to an ICE? You can buy with relative conficence that you can get another 100k+ out of it with few repairs.

How about the benefit of cheaper fueling costs? How about the relative price stability of using the power grid. Or for an investment up front, the ability to use solar and be largely self sufficient? One bout with rationing and gas shortages will make those even more desirable.

What is full service? Unlimited miles via quick charge and 300 mile range? How close to full service is a 200 mile range to most people? 80%? 90%?

But I do agree that with the current cost structure of batteries, EVs will not be dominant, though PHEVs that give many people 80-90% of the benefits may rule the day soon. You do give up the simplicity of a full on EV.

Never count innovation out, however.

Mr_Shiftright

It's been my experience that just about every claim of "lower maintenance" on a new technology has proven elusive. Diesel cars were supposed to cost less to run than gas, and hybrids less than gas, and neither proved to be true in real life, with real expenses for service and expendables.

tpe

It's been my experience that just about every claim of "lower maintenance" on a new technology has proven elusive

That's interesting that you are calling this new technology. I could have sworn you've previously posted that there is nothing new about this technology. Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else.

Mr_Shiftright

Well I was hoping that todays EVs were a new technology and not that of a 1915 Detroit Electric; otherwise, we're back to lead-acid batteries hooked up to massive DC motors once again that go 25 miles and then die.

Oh, wait.......you might be right here....

reddroverr

you guys are a crack-up. I guess there could be some complications with re-gen. braking or such.

gagrice

I would hope any EV that is brought to market would be less complex than all the cars built today. No one seems comfortable with any new car after the warranty expires. TOO MUCH complexity!

Mr_Shiftright

Well judge for yourself--can you bring an out of warranty Prius to an independent Toyota repair shop for major work on the hybrid system? I doubt it. I don't think EVs will be any different, and I don't think they will be any less expensive to maintain....even under warranty (presuming some fly by night EV company will honor it--let us hope the mainstream automakers offer them), there are tires to wear out, brakes to replace and possibly 220 volt wiring to be done at home. Also broken glass, road hazards, insurance, etc. So I think that the idea that an EV is going to cost less to maintain than a Corolla is, at best, hopeful.

apeweek

I don't think EVs will be any different, and I don't think they will be any less expensive to maintain.

I can shed some real-world experience on this. I drive a 25-year-old electric car. My maintenance costs are virtually nil, aside from replacing lead-acid batteries. Newer tech batteries would remedy this particular flaw.

Electric motors are extremely simple - only one moving part. Older electric motors may have brushes that need replacing every 100,000 miles. Newer AC motors don't even have these.

My own EV still has all the original motor and electronic parts, which have never needed service in over 2 1/2 decades. Granted, I do need the occasional brake or suspension work.

Contrast this to gas engines, which have hundreds or even thousands of parts, and just as many friction points. EVs do not need oil changes, coolant, filters, plugs, tune-ups, or any of the hundred other potential failures which plague ICEs.

Our two (much newer) gas cars each needed several hundred dollars worth of engine repairs this past year. The EV, despite being two decades older, needed no repairs at all.

Hybrids are another animal. Complexity breeds problems. Pure EVs are pretty simple - batteries, controller, motor.

Mr_Shiftright

Yeah but that's a hobby car. I think we were talking more about EVs that will be in use for quite a few miles each day, and that meet all federal safety regulations and have complete comfort and convenience systems. These aren't going to be cheap to maintain because they will be used a lot and because they carry so many ancillary systems that people will expect. Your EV, while no doubt interesting, is not saleable in today's market.

apeweek

...Yeah but that's a hobby car.

Hobby car? What do you purport to know about my vehicle that I don't?

The Electra Van was one of the best selling EVs ever made. It was built by Jet Industries of Texas from 1978-1981. My vehicle has well over 100,000 miles on it. Dozens of reliable Jet Industry electric vehicles from that era are still on the road today.

The Electra Van did indeed meet all federal safety regulations, as any other freeway-capable car must.

Exactly what would be comparable - in your opinion - in another electric vehicle - to the failure-prone gasoline engine, to make you believe EVs would be as high-maintenance as gas vehicles?

Mr_Shiftright

I already listed those---all the comfort and safety features your EV doesn't have, as well as the necessary range, styling, and rates of charge to sell in today's market. Your Electra Van was a pretty neat little conversion using lead acid batteries, but it is not marketable today. It's just a tiny Subaru van converted to an electric DC motor with 6 volt batteries and the Saburu's original 4-speed tranmission and clutch. It has no regenerative braking, a very rough ride and a range of maybe 50 miles. So really it is a kind of hobby car but using a "real" van as a base. ZAP Electric in California did a similar thing with Ford Escorts, which I drove and rather liked. About the same range, also required clutch shifting.

These conversions are low maintenance because there's not much to them. They are basically an old used car without a gas engine, so that's what you have to deal with. I mean, a bicycle has even lower maintenance, but it's not an argument for the superiority of bicycles over cars.

So my point was not to diss your obviously much-loved old EV but only to mention that modern EVs will have high maintenance because they have 5 times the systems complexity as your vehicle. They won't just be used cars with the engine taken out.

Nothing wrong with your EV. I'm sure it meets your needs. I wouldn't mind having one to putt around town in. EV vans are neat stuff.

apeweek

...modern EVs will have high maintenance because they have 5 times the systems complexity as your vehicle.

Granted, manufacturers love to fill vehicles with gadgets that will break and require service. So your point is well taken.

But there's a difference between my stereo or GPS breaking and my 'check engine' light coming on. If I'm short of cash, I'll bang on the stereo for months to keep it working. Engine failures are another matter. And, as you know, these are the really expensive repairs.

Even accepting your 'systems complexity' argument, the ICE has all the same complexity you are speaking about PLUS the added complexity of the ICE.

I'll ask again, what part of an EV is comparable to the failure-prone internal combustion engine? And speaking about 'systems complexity', what, on an EV, is comparable to the cooling system, the exhaust system, the oil system etc. of an ICE?

Mr_Shiftright

Fair question...but really we don't know, do we, because the EV that competes with an ICE hasn't been invented yet...I suspect it will just be DIFFERENT maintenance costs...so instead of mufflers or radiators you'll have something else that needs to be replaced over time. Everything that mankind makes wears out, everything breaks down. We see this all the time in computers, TVs, vacuum cleaners, whatever. More complexity = less reliability (as a rule).

apeweek

...really we don't know, do we

Then let's focus on what we DO know.

Electric motors have one moving part. Internal combustion engines have hundreds of moving parts. ICEs require multiple systems that electric motors don't. ICEs require scheduled maintenance (fluids, filters, checkups, tune-ups) that electric motors don't.

While it's reasonable to expect increasing complexity in the products we buy, the basic physics behind the electric motor and gas engine is well understood.

I simply can't accept the silly argument that 'something will come along' that will make the EV as unreliable as an ICE. I'm afraid you will have to give me some idea what that is.

Perhaps manufacturers might desire to purposely sabotage electric vehicles and create service opportunities? My response to such a thing would be to install more reliable components in my vehicle!

apeweek

...the EV that competes with an ICE hasn't been invented yet.

I wanted to respond to this idea as well.

The question is, what qualifies as an electric vehicle that competes with an ICE vehicle? Because, depending on how you define competition, this target may already have been reached - or may never be reached.

I would personally argue that many EVs available right now compete just fine. Even my old EV, which tops out at 62mph and has a 50 mile range, competes. Despite flaws, it meets my transportation needs, and has offsetting advantages: it's ridiculously inexpensive to maintain and fuel.

Marketing surveys done in past years have consistently shown latent market demand for EVs, even for vehicles with limited ranges and other flaws just like my vehicle has.

But since there will probably never be an EV with a fueling experience just like an ICE car, these two vehicle types will never directly compete. ICE owners will continue to be puzzled why anyone would accept short ranges and charging times. And EV owners will be puzzled why so many people continue to accept high gas prices and complicated maintenance schedules.

Just like the PC users who like to deride Mac users for 'not having a real computer', there will always be claims that EVs don't measure up - no matter how much progress is made.

Mr_Shiftright

Yes but the difference between your old EV and what Americans will buy today is vast, and the EV of tomorrow won't even resemble yours. Basically you have a hobby car, a type of conversion that any clever person could do in their garage. This is not going to compete with today's ICEs, which are remarkably reliable and efficient.

To put it another way, given how little it costs for me to run a Scion xA, I don't see how an EV could possibly be any cheaper over the course of 100,000 miles.

What I'm hearing from you is that your EV is cheaper to run than a 1981 Oldsmobile that is driven 50 miles per day under 60 mph. I would tend to believe you, on that basis.

apeweek

...the difference between your old EV and what Americans will buy today is vast...I don't see how an EV could possibly be any cheaper over the course of 100,000 miles.

While I would still quibble with this, let's use a more modern EV like the Phoenix:

http://phoenixmotorcars.com

The Phoenix can do 95mph with 5 passengers plus cargo, has batteries that can charge in 10 minutes (from a special charger, or overnight in your garage), and a battery lifetime in excess of 200,000 miles. It uses an AC motor with only one moving part, and no brushes or other friction points to wear out.

It is being built and for sale right now to fleet customers. It recently passed crash testing and will be for general sale in the near future.

I do not see how maintenance costs will be any higher on this new EV than they are on my old EV. Lower, in fact, since the batteries will not need replacing for at least a decade.

Aside from brake work (and not even much of that with regen braking), what maintenance will this car need? It certainly is not going to need oil changes, tune-ups, filters, and other engine maintenance like the Scion will.

How could it not be cheaper to maintain?

I've been very specific about exactly why EVs are cheaper to maintain.

Once again, exactly what, on an EV, is comparable to the ICE with its hundreds of friction points, multiple systems, and complicated maintenance schedule?

As modern EV and ICE cars will share the same systems for comfort, safety, and convenience, the only difference that I can see is the powertrain. And electric motors/batteries are far less complex than gas engines - hence, simpler, cheaper maintenance.

What other difference could there be? What, specifically, on an EV will cause these high maintenance costs we are talking about?

Forgive me for being a pit bull on this topic. I am just trying to figure out what specific piece of EV technology you're thinking about so I can discuss it with you.

Mr_Shiftright

No, no we *enjoy* talking with you on this subject. I don't want to hog the conversation so I'll let others jump in. I'll just reply by saying that the Phoenix is not for sale and is not on the road, is unproven, and so we have no idea whatsoever how expensive it will be to maintain.

My xA is costing me about .07 cents a mile for the first 30,000 miles, or about $100 a year. Any "lower" maintenance than that borders on what one might call "neglible benefit".

And I'll eat my laptop if the "Phoenix" costs less than a Scion xA to buy.