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It looks like a 15 minute charge is within possibility. That makes more sense to me for the if/when of EV popularity.
The changable battery plan presupposes design compatibility. The plan would have to include leased battery coverage, methinks.
firefly batteries
You betcha it would be heavy! But since we're dealing in brainstorming here, my vision would have to include some standardization of design among vehicle manufacturers as well. (Hey, if you're gonna have a fantasy, have a FANTASY)
Let's say the battery pack was a wide flat thing that slid in a slot under the passenger compartment of the car and had standardized electrical connection locations as well. Since I'm dreaming, I'm even going to make it so the pack slides into the car from the left side and is removed from the right side.
So you pull your vehicle into a "refueling" bay where the lock holding the pack firmly in place is detached, and a machine pushes the fully charged pack into the slot on the left side, which pushes the spent pack out the right side, into the waiting arms of another machine that moves the pack into a recharging slot.
Ideally, the machine would be automated enough that we could have a guy named Ernie sitting there to ask if you'd like a Big Gulp while you wait :P
It might be full of holes, but just an idea.
If I only had a single vehicle and that vehicle was an EV, I could not accept any range less than 300 miles. Anything shorter would require stopping just too often. A battery that would have this range capability would, I imagine, be very expensive for the foreseeable future and I for one would not accept that I would pay such a sum for a new (latest technology) large capacity battery only to have it replaced by a service station with a battery that might die after driving a mile. Therefore the only way I could accept an EV as an only vehicle is if the range was sufficient for longer trips (of 300 miles or more) and be capable of being recharged within a short period of time.
In summary, establishing a battery replacement infrastructure does not seem like something that would be necessary to resolve any actual problem and would definitely not be worthwhile for replacement stations to become involved with. I believe a more appropriate solution would be for interstate service stations to begin preparing for a recharging infrastructure that would allow for fast recharging and for hotels to immediately begin with a limited number of bays for overnight recharging. The overnight recharging doesn't require anything special but the fast recharging infrastructure will require some development of an affordable way to be implemented.
With that said I'm fairly certain that most of the early adopters of EVs will have other vehicles. That's fine. A sizeable percentage of households have multiple vehicles so this won't significantly limit EV's marketability. As a second car I could easily get by with a 60 mile range. In an EV world where employers and shopping center started putting electrical outlets in their parking lots I could probably get by with less range. I personally would be interested in buying the minimal amount of battery that I would typically use with a little extra as a buffer. As battery technology improved and got less expensive I could upgrade.
That is my thinking. Why do I need a 100 mile range when my trip to Costco, Home Depot, Lowes, PO and the grocery store is never over 7-8 miles round trip. The batteries are the big expense. Buy just what you need for your situation. A plug in buss that was mentioned might be a good plan.
Yes, I guess I meant only scheduled maintenance there. This is from my own experience. I track all repair and maintenance expenses, I don't split them. The 2-3 cents per mile is what I typically have spent in the first 3-4 years. Later I have had anywhere from 6-10 cents per mile for all repairs and maintenance. On one really old low usage car, only driven about 3000 miles per year, got up to about 13 cents per mile.
Right now, as your typical middle class American with no gradiose assets, I'd say my budget for an EV as a second car is about $8,000, but as a primary car, $25,000 would be okay. That's about the upper limit for me, even if the EV could do most of what an ICE does.
Sorry about that last post - a goof! Anyway, I am looking to buy my first hybrid car, but have really no idea about where to go for the best infromation. Frankly, the general the information, the better - as I really have no clue what I'm doing! The only resource on hybrids and other fuel-efficient cars that I've found that is as general as I would like is http://fuelfriendlycars.com but I would like some other hybrid car resources as well. Any suggestions? Thanks -
Ronny
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2007/07/31/056735.html
1. Only 190 dealers (that's 4 per state)
2. Made in China
That's two big risk factors for a $30K roll of the dice. I think I'd wait 2-3 years before buying one of these.
If this setup is anything like the way it panned out with Ural motorcycles from Russia and sold here through a limited dealer network, well lotsa luck new owners.
You can buy a Hybrid from about $21k for a Honda Civic Hybrid to over $100k for a Lexus hybrid. If you are looking for great mileage only two fit the bill the Civic hybrid and Prius. Type in those two names and you will have days of reading on the subject.
li-ion manufacturing
Several businesses have installed charging stations at Lambrix’s request. The only charging station in Lacey is at the Department of Ecology building, according to Lambrix’s Web site, www.pluginolympia.com"
http://www.theolympian.com/laceytoday/story/178361.html
Sorry to be so slow to respond, but your comment is EXACTLY the view that I have been expressing for years! A limited duty vehicle will not garner substantial market share unless it can be had for much less than the cost of existing "mainstream" vehicles. We're not likely to see a "full service" EV for $25K, if at all.
If a car has 80-90% less maintanance and repair. What is that worth? No tranny, alternator, radiator..yada yada.
If the battery goes 300k miles as is touted? What is that car worth at 150k miles as opposed to an ICE? You can buy with relative conficence that you can get another 100k+ out of it with few repairs.
How about the benefit of cheaper fueling costs? How about the relative price stability of using the power grid. Or for an investment up front, the ability to use solar and be largely self sufficient? One bout with rationing and gas shortages will make those even more desirable.
What is full service? Unlimited miles via quick charge and 300 mile range? How close to full service is a 200 mile range to most people? 80%? 90%?
But I do agree that with the current cost structure of batteries, EVs will not be dominant, though PHEVs that give many people 80-90% of the benefits may rule the day soon. You do give up the simplicity of a full on EV.
Never count innovation out, however.
That's interesting that you are calling this new technology. I could have sworn you've previously posted that there is nothing new about this technology. Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else.
Oh, wait.......you might be right here....
I can shed some real-world experience on this. I drive a 25-year-old electric car. My maintenance costs are virtually nil, aside from replacing lead-acid batteries. Newer tech batteries would remedy this particular flaw.
Electric motors are extremely simple - only one moving part. Older electric motors may have brushes that need replacing every 100,000 miles. Newer AC motors don't even have these.
My own EV still has all the original motor and electronic parts, which have never needed service in over 2 1/2 decades. Granted, I do need the occasional brake or suspension work.
Contrast this to gas engines, which have hundreds or even thousands of parts, and just as many friction points. EVs do not need oil changes, coolant, filters, plugs, tune-ups, or any of the hundred other potential failures which plague ICEs.
Our two (much newer) gas cars each needed several hundred dollars worth of engine repairs this past year. The EV, despite being two decades older, needed no repairs at all.
Hybrids are another animal. Complexity breeds problems. Pure EVs are pretty simple - batteries, controller, motor.
Hobby car? What do you purport to know about my vehicle that I don't?
The Electra Van was one of the best selling EVs ever made. It was built by Jet Industries of Texas from 1978-1981. My vehicle has well over 100,000 miles on it. Dozens of reliable Jet Industry electric vehicles from that era are still on the road today.
The Electra Van did indeed meet all federal safety regulations, as any other freeway-capable car must.
Exactly what would be comparable - in your opinion - in another electric vehicle - to the failure-prone gasoline engine, to make you believe EVs would be as high-maintenance as gas vehicles?
These conversions are low maintenance because there's not much to them. They are basically an old used car without a gas engine, so that's what you have to deal with. I mean, a bicycle has even lower maintenance, but it's not an argument for the superiority of bicycles over cars.
So my point was not to diss your obviously much-loved old EV but only to mention that modern EVs will have high maintenance because they have 5 times the systems complexity as your vehicle. They won't just be used cars with the engine taken out.
Nothing wrong with your EV. I'm sure it meets your needs. I wouldn't mind having one to putt around town in. EV vans are neat stuff.
Granted, manufacturers love to fill vehicles with gadgets that will break and require service. So your point is well taken.
But there's a difference between my stereo or GPS breaking and my 'check engine' light coming on. If I'm short of cash, I'll bang on the stereo for months to keep it working. Engine failures are another matter. And, as you know, these are the really expensive repairs.
Even accepting your 'systems complexity' argument, the ICE has all the same complexity you are speaking about PLUS the added complexity of the ICE.
I'll ask again, what part of an EV is comparable to the failure-prone internal combustion engine? And speaking about 'systems complexity', what, on an EV, is comparable to the cooling system, the exhaust system, the oil system etc. of an ICE?
Then let's focus on what we DO know.
Electric motors have one moving part. Internal combustion engines have hundreds of moving parts. ICEs require multiple systems that electric motors don't. ICEs require scheduled maintenance (fluids, filters, checkups, tune-ups) that electric motors don't.
While it's reasonable to expect increasing complexity in the products we buy, the basic physics behind the electric motor and gas engine is well understood.
I simply can't accept the silly argument that 'something will come along' that will make the EV as unreliable as an ICE. I'm afraid you will have to give me some idea what that is.
Perhaps manufacturers might desire to purposely sabotage electric vehicles and create service opportunities? My response to such a thing would be to install more reliable components in my vehicle!
I wanted to respond to this idea as well.
The question is, what qualifies as an electric vehicle that competes with an ICE vehicle? Because, depending on how you define competition, this target may already have been reached - or may never be reached.
I would personally argue that many EVs available right now compete just fine. Even my old EV, which tops out at 62mph and has a 50 mile range, competes. Despite flaws, it meets my transportation needs, and has offsetting advantages: it's ridiculously inexpensive to maintain and fuel.
Marketing surveys done in past years have consistently shown latent market demand for EVs, even for vehicles with limited ranges and other flaws just like my vehicle has.
But since there will probably never be an EV with a fueling experience just like an ICE car, these two vehicle types will never directly compete. ICE owners will continue to be puzzled why anyone would accept short ranges and charging times. And EV owners will be puzzled why so many people continue to accept high gas prices and complicated maintenance schedules.
Just like the PC users who like to deride Mac users for 'not having a real computer', there will always be claims that EVs don't measure up - no matter how much progress is made.
To put it another way, given how little it costs for me to run a Scion xA, I don't see how an EV could possibly be any cheaper over the course of 100,000 miles.
What I'm hearing from you is that your EV is cheaper to run than a 1981 Oldsmobile that is driven 50 miles per day under 60 mph. I would tend to believe you, on that basis.
While I would still quibble with this, let's use a more modern EV like the Phoenix:
http://phoenixmotorcars.com
The Phoenix can do 95mph with 5 passengers plus cargo, has batteries that can charge in 10 minutes (from a special charger, or overnight in your garage), and a battery lifetime in excess of 200,000 miles. It uses an AC motor with only one moving part, and no brushes or other friction points to wear out.
It is being built and for sale right now to fleet customers. It recently passed crash testing and will be for general sale in the near future.
I do not see how maintenance costs will be any higher on this new EV than they are on my old EV. Lower, in fact, since the batteries will not need replacing for at least a decade.
Aside from brake work (and not even much of that with regen braking), what maintenance will this car need? It certainly is not going to need oil changes, tune-ups, filters, and other engine maintenance like the Scion will.
How could it not be cheaper to maintain?
I've been very specific about exactly why EVs are cheaper to maintain.
Once again, exactly what, on an EV, is comparable to the ICE with its hundreds of friction points, multiple systems, and complicated maintenance schedule?
As modern EV and ICE cars will share the same systems for comfort, safety, and convenience, the only difference that I can see is the powertrain. And electric motors/batteries are far less complex than gas engines - hence, simpler, cheaper maintenance.
What other difference could there be? What, specifically, on an EV will cause these high maintenance costs we are talking about?
Forgive me for being a pit bull on this topic. I am just trying to figure out what specific piece of EV technology you're thinking about so I can discuss it with you.
My xA is costing me about .07 cents a mile for the first 30,000 miles, or about $100 a year. Any "lower" maintenance than that borders on what one might call "neglible benefit".
And I'll eat my laptop if the "Phoenix" costs less than a Scion xA to buy.