By accessing this website, you acknowledge that Edmunds and its third party business partners may use cookies, pixels, and similar technologies to collect information about you and your interactions with the website as described in our
Privacy Statement, and you agree that your use of the website is subject to our
Visitor Agreement.
Comments
I see you you share my feelings on GE. Nothing concrete but no luck for me in that stock.
Much better luck with DNA and MSFT.
Regards,
OW
Like 'em a lot, also.
TM
My wife`s car is also going to get a new sun roof, and the electronics fixed....She is enjoying the 328 hard top convertable, so that has been enjoyable for her...I just want to urge you to have the drain holes checked quickly, as I know you wouldn`t want to experience this on your wife`s car....We suspect this problem has slowly been around a long time, so a word to the wise for you...Tony
No. It is far more scary than that.
Nobody knows.
For year end 2008 the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp which settles 90 percent of electronic trades of the biggest dealers had estimated that there are 35 trillion dollars worth of notional value Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts out there.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association estimates $47 trillion.
In otherwords absolutely nobody knows including the experts. It's anybody's guess?
. Didn't Buffett change his position on them?
A few years ago Warren Buffett was in fact referring to Credit Default Swaps as weapons of financial mass destruction. With Buffett's insurance background he was concerned about the fact that a CDS can be sold many times over again for the very same underlying asset. Unlike insurance policies where a person or a group of persons cannot write dozens of life insurance policies on one specific individual in order to speculate on his or her death.
The end result was that the notional value of CDS contracts was several times higher than the underlying securities that were insured against default.
The problem above is being resolved with a clearing house for CDS contracts with regulatory oversight. With such an arrangement counterparty risks should be reduced especially with standardized collateral requirements. Unfortunately this solution is not applicable tot CDS contracts that were done privately in the past since they cannot be changed retrocactively.
Warren Buffett did play with derivatives in the past with the foreign exchange markets. He lost quite a bit of money. And recently he is incurring losses (only book losses so far) with a 15 year S & P Call Option contract.
Yes even Warren Buffett is not 100 percent perfect.
My income from my investment business is lower than in prior years. My income is based on the assets I manage and that has shrunk due to these markets So far I have not lost a client.Losing one client in my case means a lot since my business consists of just a few very wealthy clients and despite market losses they are still very wealthy . With all the compelling " buys" out there I see hope in the future.
I myself had a sunroof that did not function in my BMW 335i. The electronics had to be fixed. I wonder if that was due to water damage?
Definitely I will have my wife's BMW 530xi touring checked (expecially before the warranty expires)
Sort of a metaphor for the financial market of late with the performance of your car.
Again, starting out anew, I now am dreaming of an ELLPS where once it was reality!
Regards,
OW
Gosh no! The proper metaphor for my car is The Great Depression from the 1930s
The problem is so much money has been concentrated in hedge funds that they now can move whole markets with no rhyme or reason. Witness oil and commodities last year. Heck withness uranium which is the most predictable commodity on earth because of the length of time for power plants to come on line. The only thing more predictable than uranium demand is the clock on your wall yet uranium bounced around like you couldn't believe during the hedge fund commodity boom. On top of that these funds have had high leverage ratios. The hedge fund industry is about $2 trillion (some think it topped 3 trillion in 2008) but with leverage it is much larger, as high as 40 trillion with leverage in commodities and as small as $4 trillion with leverage in stocks. Is it any wonder why stocks are a last resort for many hedge fund managers. Oil and many commodities are leveragable at 20:1 by hedge funds. They don't need to put a lot of money into some of these markets to move them greatly with that type of leverage. And as a hedge fund manager moves a market steadily up he's making more and more money in it with virtually no risk - until it gets too high and the fundamentals catch up to it like a Ferrari catching and passing a tortoise. Business 101 says the greater the leverage, the greater the rise, fall and volatility a market will have. Some of these commodity markets lost 70-80% of their value in months because of that leverage and volatility . Natural gas was rising toward $15 a year ago. Today it sits under $4.
A hedge fund is really nothing more than a betting pool. They do almost no due dilligence and for the most part have a bunch of traders who couldn't manage your corner grocery or local card store if they had to. Heck, look how many of them put money with Madoff. Yet folks follow them blindly. The best example I give friends is introducing the concept of sports into hedge fund management. Let's say you had an imaginary football game between Penn State and the New England Patriots when Tom Brady was at his best. If the hedge funds bet Penn State in pure momentum bets they'd put so much money out there that a bookie would have no choice but to make Penn State the favorite. This is what happens during the illusionary market build-up. Of course the game (which is the ultimate fundamental) has to get played and when it does we all know Penn State loses by 8-10 touchdowns if they are lucky. But if you got suckered into betting Penn State by media stories that led you to believe hedge funds were brilliant investors led by geniuses that made $10bln a year you were of course dead in the water.
So now whenever I see a market rising with no fundamental support at all I just know it's some hedge fund manager inflating it with a bet that will collapse if you just wait a while longer.
Without restraint, we will be here again lamenting the world collapse in a couple of decades as memory recedes.
Regards,
OW
You may be. I won't.
Those who can will take advantage. Those who can will avoid being taken advantage of. All others are prey.
The government will make it all okay, right?
TM
Sounds sensible.
BMW Touring over a X SAV?
That's why I have a 530xi Touring in my garage.
I once mentioned considering a Lexus RX450h. Space-wise the RX is not exactly compelling. The Highlander is better in terms of space but that phony pale wood at the dash reminds me of Woolworth's decor. Now I am considering a 2010 Subaru Outback if I dont get a Prius.
Glad you are enjoying your new red Audi. Even with a subdued gray coloured BMW 335i I still cant avoid those traffic cops. Good luck with yours
Answer:
A Summary of Obama's speech today
Let me be straight: In the short term we will spend and save at the same time.
Longer term, I have a vision of America atop five pillars driven into solid rock. Each pillar will help create the Next American Century. First, the finance industry must be forced to circumvent 21st century regulations, not the outdated rules that allowed this crisis in the first place. The second pillar is education: I’m afraid you all have to go back to school to study engineering for at least a year. Third, my administration intends to rush headfirst towards renewable energy, irrespective of cost. Fourth, we will reform healthcare where all others have failed. Our final pillar is a solid promise to restore fiscal discipline some time in the future. Don’t try to stop me, Congress. God Bless America.
Anyone here looking for John Galt's Gulch in Colorado?
FINANCIAL TIMES
Obama is making this all about him. He really thinks he's a savior and he doesn't want anyone going against his program, however needless it is.
As would I. I tried to push my wife towards a wagon as she gave up her RX300, but she was having none of it. She's not the tallest gal around, and she feels vulnerable on the road unless she has her SUV driving position. I know its rather silly, but I've learned not to argue on these kinds of things.
She also maintains that the car must be small (180" or so), which ruled out the RX330 last time. The RDX and LR2 were quickly eliminated, which left the X3. The Q5 ticks all the right boxes for her, and at least spec wise it has significantly more rear legroom than the MB, BMW, and Volvo. The Audi if I recall correctly has an adjustable rear seat, perhaps it was in the forward position when you tested it? I would think that the listed 37.4" of rear legroom would be reasonable for most adults. BTW, the new A4 Avant has 35.2" of leg space in the back.
The Lincoln is certainly spacious, but it's also really heavy and kind of a gas guzzler. She won't accept a 15mpg city rating. Plus, I just can't get past the fact that like all Lincolns, it's basically a Ford with some silver trim and a massive price hike. That, and I can't stand the 1976 steering wheel and gauges. To me it just doesn't seem like a $45K+ product.
The government will make it all okay, right?
Like Alan Greenspan said, It's inevitable that another severe downturn will emerge....it's a factor of the human condition.
Regards,
OW
TM
Effective immediately, I am making a 180-degree reversal of my recent position in the stock market. Today, I have sold every single stock in my entire portfolio with the only single exception of $100K worth of WMT, which I am keeping because it is a very long-term hold for personal reasons.
I even sold the much-debated GE shares, although they were profitable up to this point.
The reason for this is actually quite simple... I now believe there is significantly more downside risk than upside potential at this point in time.
I also got out before the previous recent collapse, although I was a little late in doing so, but I still managed to get out at a reasonable level while the market continued to decline severely. This time I am being even more careful, so I have pulled out today.
Good luck to those of you that are remaining in the market.
TM
Obama is making this all about him. He really thinks he's a savior and he doesn't want anyone going against his program, however needless it is.
Len,
You know how much I respect your views. But this view on Obama really hits me hard. I actually love listening to him when he speaks. He seems incredibly genuine but at the same time authoritative. This economy has been SO broken that it will take an act of God to fix. I'm sure Obama and his administration have made some mistakes, but it is impossible not to make mistakes in this amazing mess. But I really do have faith in him. I DO believe that we all look back a year or two from now and we will be impressed with how much good this President has done. Call me the eternal optimist (actually I was anything but optimistic last summer and was advising my friends and relatives to get the hell out of every stock they own). about the future with this administration. Somehow, some way, they will get the job done. It is impossible to please everybody right now.
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, but I am still very much of the opinion that we have seen the low a couple months ago. I am therefore in the mind set of buying dips. I basically got out of everything in terms of stocks way before this historic collapse. In fact, I sold some stuff too soon (back in 2006 and 2007). I am obviously not betting the farm with my new purchases, so if I am wrong and the market collapses to new lows, it will not be the end of the world for me.
BTW, did Len scare the daylights out of you today with his very derogatory views on Obama
No Charlie, not at all... I actually agree with you on Obama.
I do not see any perfect way out of this economic disaster. Obama cannot get it just right no matter what he does. IMO, the president is wrestling with factors that are evil by their nature.
The downside potential for stocks is now much, much larger than the upside potential. Think about that. How much more can it go up right now? There aren't enough fundamental reasons to cause it to go up significantly. On the other hand, there are plenty of risks and reasons to cause it to go south again. That is why I am now out of the market.
As sincere as Obama is, he is going to have to use some stronger medicine than just wildly throwing money around. He is going to have to get tough... and he seems too much like a gentle soul to me to get tough enough... but we'll see.
I do like him, and I think he is very, very smart. I also think he is a righteous person with good intentions. Those are good qualities in a person, but as president I hope he is tough enough to wrestle down the true culprits in this world that's full of evil... drug lords, corporate thieves, corrupt politicians, war-mongers, weapons dealers, oil tycoons, Wall Street's greedy manipulative con artists, terrorists, and... oh yeah... pirates.
TM
I don't dislike Obama at all personally. He's very charasmatic and is a great speaker and has the potential to be a great leader. What I dislike immensely is his financial policies, the fact that he can't hide his disdain for Wall Street and his need to keep harping on how bad things are, sometimes making them even worse than they are. The latter reminds me of an incoming CEO that needs to make a name for himself by pinning anything and everything bad on what took place before he had control. If you are a secure person you shouldn't need to do that. He needs to control his disdain for Wall Street as we all understand his views by now but to keep harping on it means he has a grudge that will cloud his actions and that is not good for you, me, Obama or anyone else unless they live overseas. I think by now you can tell I have no respect for hedge fund managers either so in that regard Obama and I are on the same page. As for his financial policies I can't help but think that Obama is not taking much advice from anyone and that is precisely because of the control aspects you are seeing. I think if it was up to Obama he'd want Bernanke out of the picture because he can't control Bernanke and the financial markets look to him for guidanace over Obama all the time.
My personal feeling is the market will close the year around 10,000-10,300 on the Dow and around 1,000-1,050 on the S&P. But short-term who knows where it goes as it's still subject to so much manipulation and fear. What you are doing is betting on bad earnings and bad guiidance and something that takes us a leg down in financial news. We'll have to see how guidance comes out but I actually think there's a lot of good indicators out there longer range so even if it falls I think it'll bounce back quickly. Like Charlie, I have never bought into all the ultimate gloom and doom scenarios.
My thought was that we would have what looked like the start of a V-recovery in stocks that would then quickly level off and I'm still there. I think that level off stage is near or just over 10,000.
The only stocks I've bought in the last few months were Wells, Citi literally at its low, and Apple. But with retirement money I have moved a lot more into the general market. Apple - I bought 4 times, just amassing more and more of it each time and it fell further almost eveytime I bought it. I started buying at 100, then bought more at 90, 85, 80 and my last tranche was at 84 after it had bounced to 90 and fell back. I sold some at $120 for the exact reasons you are feeling but I don't have that level of conviction so I still have a lot of it.
Citi and Wells I'm holding because it's all house money and in the case of Citi I'm actually up 28X on my net investment. I remain convinced that Citi at $1 was a once in a lifetime buy.
Or (here it comes again) feel free to go to the Off-Topic Chatter board and fire up a suitable topic. I'm not sure why everyone is so resistant to this idea. You won't find me annoying you there about trying to wind a car reference or two into your posts. You'll be free to carry on about all the non-car things all you'd like! :shades:
Sorry Len... I don't see the market at 10,000 all that soon... and even if it does hit 10,000 sooner than I think, I don't see it staying there very long until the housing and unemployment figures improve significantly, and I don't think they can improve enough by the end of this year.
You say you really don't like Obama's financial direction, yet you sure are betting on it having a successful result in a hurry. The market can't do as well as you are betting if his financial plan is as bad as you say... so I see a little contradiction in your perspective.
Either way... I hope the economy gets stronger and does so quickly. I've got a very expensive house to sell, and I'd like to sell it soon, so my relocation to SoCal goes smoothly.
As far as cars go (hello, Pat!
TM
I understand your frustration. I believe the major reason why we don't visit the Off-Topic center on the non-car related issues is because we have our own little core group here and we just don't like jumping from forum to forum to discuss these issues. Actually, it has only been one major off topic issue and that is the economic collapse. Since this affects cars and everything else, we hope you will be more understanding. And, you really have been up to a point. Thanks for that!
But I know we should try very hard to at least relate these other issues to cars to keep you happy
Tag, I think you make a good point about Len's seeming contradiction, but I believe that he will be proven right about the Dow reaching 10,000+ by the end of the year. I just think that he is a bit off about Obama's financial policies. I think I will buy some Ford and perhaps even some GM stock today.
The strongest barometer of the track of the market is tied to energy and employment. All else follows. I believe energy is a contra-indicator and employment, though lagging, is the strongest gauge of future growth.
Regards,
OW
...
So far, I'm OK with it.
Wait. Isn't that the very thing that Honda/Acura has been lambasted about as of late? :confuse: How is this suddenly okay just because it's a Land Rover? Not saying that you specifically have been burning Honda/Acura, tagman. But if your statement about the LR's instrumentation is accurate, why is it okay for them and not for Honda/Acura?
Anyway, sorry if this has been discussed already. Been really busy with work the past few weeks and haven't had time to read/post much in the forums. That's a VERY good thing these days!
TM
TM
BTW, I also offer my congratulations and good wishes on your new business. I believe you mentioned supply chain economics as being very important in your business. Perhaps you should hire my son-in-law who was laid off from Ford back last August
Pat, I mentioned Ford above and I hope that qualifies as a loose connection to cars
Ditto on both counts. Twenty years of marriage teaches certain lessons to those capable of understanding them.
The Lincoln is certainly spacious, but it's also really heavy and kind of a gas guzzler. She won't accept a 15mpg city rating. Plus, I just can't get past the fact that like all Lincolns, it's basically a Ford with some silver trim and a massive price hike. That, and I can't stand the 1976 steering wheel and gauges. To me it just doesn't seem like a $45K+ product.
Well, see above! Again, not my car to drive but maybe twice a year, and one of those is our annual pilgrimmage to Disneyland down I-5. Here's what I will say for the Lincoln: it is more comfortable than anything else we looked at two years ago, it handles about on par with most of those choices, for a Ford it is nicely appointed and well-turned (other than the aforementioned grille), and it's capable of getting out of its own way. Actual mileage we're getting is routinely in the low 20's (21-22).
As far as pricing goes the scenario is typical of American offerings, as I've found: feature for feature, they are usually stickered below much of the competition, and when price is negotiated, substantial discounts regularly apply. Further, heavily subsidized leasing puts a thick layer of frosting on the cake. Drawback? The service is carried out by a Ford shop, and unlike Chrysler, they still don't quite "get it" when it comes to the service experience.
Frankly, if Lincoln stands could get a nation-wide upgrade and a true identity all their own, given the improved product, I think they could be players. Big damn "if" there. Huge.
In the meantime, I am interested to test the Genesis coupe...if I get it and my income flops, I can give it back!
Regards,
OW
Were you driving on 680 yesterday around noon? Nice car!!
TM
Being busy is very good because if a person has too much time on their hands who knows what kind of outdoors activities he will be engaged in.
No plates yet, just the dealer's insert in a Chico State Alumni frame. When I put the frame on, the Mrs. said, "I'm not sure I would advertise." I told her I'm in a select group - I graduated. Further, I did it in four years. Even further, my MD says I have normal liver function.
Interesting take on the market. We have nada in stocks right now other than the Target Corp. I spoke of (I believe very strongly in their long-term prosperity, having once been under their umbrella), and a smattering of things in my wife's deflated IRA. The two IRAs being the smallest of our current assets, yesterday we gave our lady at Wells nearly free reign to play them like a track tipster.
I still believe most strongly in real estate.
Yeah!!... Silver BMW 135i convertible... although there's now another identical one in the area, I saw recently.
I still believe most strongly in real estate.
Real estate? I typically agree. Although I'm moving to SoCal, and now I've got an estate in Blackhawk to sell... and since you are from Alamo, you understand my challenge.
TM
Clean Energy's Dirty Little Secret
TM
Previous LR interiors were just as bad as Honda/Acura. The LR3's especially was a mess. Unlike Honda/Acura though, LR seems to be trying to do better. They have replaced their old button-infested, nonsensical centerstacks with new touch screens, and have hugely reduced the button counts. The button counts in Honda/Acura products just seem to keep going up and up.
I know what you mean. I bought Ford around a buck and a half, and sold some of it when it hit $4. The rest I'm keeping in just to see what happens. My hunch is that the Chrysler merger/marriage/partnership or whatever you want to call it with Fiat is going to bomb, big time. I don't believe for a second that Sergio Marchionne has any intention of "saving" Chrysler, or that Chrysler is even salvageable to begin with. Marchionne just wants his foot in the door, and he wants first crack at Chrysler's assets when they go C7. He will not put Fiat SPA in any amount of risk to get there, which is why he's been so quick to say that Fiat will walk if things don't go exactly his way.
The inevitable Chrysler C7 ultimately means more of the market for Ford. Ford also stands to benefit from whatever packaged/government managed C11 GM is forced to go through. There's still a lot of work to be done, of course. Mercury needs to be taken behind the shed and put out of its misery. There is simply no reason for it to exist.
Lincoln needs an identity. Chasing after Cadillac with three letter names was a big mistake. I think if you ask most people to identify a MKZ, MKX, MKS, and MKT, you'll just get blank stares. Not that the Ford "everything must start with F!" and Mercury "everything must start with M!" ideas were any better.
All of the domestics seem to fail to understand that a nameplate is a valuable asset, but I think Ford is probably the worst in that area. Honda can point to the to the Accord and say "23 C&D 10 best wins, and we keep making it better". The domestics on the other hand will retire a model and say "well that was a piece of garbage, we better rename the next one so people don't associate it with this junker. Gee, I wonder why they are in trouble?
Lincoln also needs to figure out what kind of company they want to be, and who they want to compete with. Right now they are in that no-mans land with Saab and Acura. If they want to be taken seriously, the rebadging of Fords has got to stop. They need their own in-house modular architecture, something like Audi's MLP or Nissan's FM. With unique architecture, they are free to make unique designs. Their interior designers should all be fired, and the one who said "let's bring back the '70s!" should never be allowed to work in the auto business again. Cash on the hood is fine for a Focus, but marketing a successful luxury product means convincing customers that your product is actually worth what you're asking. Lincoln basically needs a complete reboot. I just hope Mulally and crew are up to it.
Other than Ford, I'm dipping my toes back into the market in a few areas. I was able to get out while the getting out was still good, and now I'm testing the waters again. No large commitments yet, just some experiments.
Sorry to hear you will leave the area, but I hope there is an opportunity paving the way. One of my favorite recent new-car evening relaxation routes in the Audi is up Crow to Camino Tassajara to Diablo to Blackhawk, and back to Crow all the way out to the Norris junction and then home.
Definitely. We've got some fantastic drives still available to us around the Mt. Diablo foothills. And, still plenty of undeveloped areas off of Santa Rita towards Livermore... such as Highland Rd. I used to take the Lotus out there to some of those remote stretches and open 'er up. Hit a couple of wild birds several times though.
TM
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/car/
Or (here it comes again) feel free to go to the Off-Topic Chatter board and fire up a suitable topic. I'm not sure why everyone is so resistant to this idea. You won't find me annoying you there about trying to wind a car reference or two into your posts. You'll be free to carry on about all the non-car things all you'd like!
Pat, since you asked I’ll respond.
I originally started this thread specifically as an off-topic alternative, not to dwell on cars, and not to be chided for digressing off the topic of cars. It seems like it was accepted. Please see post #1. How did this ever become a replacement for the High End Luxury Marques thread?
The Subaru Crew Cafe forum is very off-topic and it's the style that I had hoped we could have here “talk about whatever” as it states in the masthead of that thread. Why can't it be just as casual here? Frankly, that's why I hardly come around much anymore. It seems the wrench always gets thrown into the wheels whenever interesting non-car-related conversations get going.
There's more to life than cars and it seems Edmunds appreciates that fact with the various goings on around the site which add some salt. I thought this thread was a good fit. There are intelligent people around here with a range of interesting thoughts to share. It’s kind of a shame if that needs to be muffled for some reason.