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Comments
Heh Heh, I feel like I cannot deny that.
Regards,
Jose
I know that's why I have been owning a mini fleet of 2 cars for the past 6 years, but since my wife's annexed the IS, I am giving this idea another try.
I think the Audi Allroad/Avant (sp) a fantastic looking wagon that I do not mind driving, but it just fell off my list of candidates after reading about its lack off reliability on some forum.
I am pretty sure Audi's AWD system is one of the best, however I want one that does not behave like an AWD vehicle when not needed. Another item to observe on a test drive I guess.
No, cargo space isn't a strong suit of the GSh. It has less than a Porsche Boxster. In fact, I struggle to think of any strong suits for that car. Apart from the fact that its based on the standard GS, which is in a grudge match with the RL for the worst car in the segment, the mpg benefit of the hybrid system is entirely canceled out by the extra weight. You're literally paying $10,000 for nothing. You might as well set the money on fire instead of heating your house over the winter. That would save you more money on energy costs than the GSh.
If the Germans are out for reliability concerns, I'm afraid that it may be simply impossible to hit every bullet point.
The EX35 has Lexus reliability with better than X3 handling, but the packaging is awful. If you actually need the rear seats for anything, the M35x or the FX35 would be better choices. Audi's latest 40/60 Quattro system has largely gotten rid of the old understeer, for fairly neutral handling until you push it to the absolute limit. I will give Infiniti's ATTESA system credit though, since it basically shuts down the front wheels until their needed, it has the most "RWD like" feel of probably any system out there. That of course doesn't necessarily translate to performance. The S4 and even the TL SH-AWD will destroy the G35x on a track thanks to their torque vectoring systems.
If you're going to a Toyota dealership to check out a Venza, I would take a look at a RAV4 V6 Sport as well. It's supposed to be the most fun car to drive Toyota makes, it's quick, and the fuel economy is surprisingly good considering the 269hp.
I know what you mean about a Toyota hybrid hatchback. I don't understand why Toyota and Honda still have no answer to the Escape hybrid. It would be a no brainer. The GSh on the other hand is brainless.
I'd love to second the A4 but recent price jump in A4 prices keeps me from recommending it to anyone I know now. If we're talking sensibly "large" items I guess a 328xi wagon is a good choice. From what I see so far it's possible to get even 30mpg on this one. However if price isn't an issue then A4 avant is a great choice.
Infiniti EX, I totally second that, assuming you like the looks which I admit isn't for everyone. It's not SUV nor CUV, morelike a tall hatchback IMO. However cabin details are far better than G's and it still handles almost like a G. Downside? Ride can get pretty firm.
I'm not sure I can recommend Venza. It definitely doesn't handle anywhere near the word fun, heck even RX offer more fun IMO.
Yah, I am talking bulky items that do not easy fit the trunk opening of a sedan, or even the rear passenger doors.
I have seen a few EXs around, it looks like a mini FX from away, which you either love or hate, nothing in btw IMHO.
Yeah I would think in that class, the Mazda CX-7 and the Nissan Murano would blow away the Venza in the fun department, and both are probably worth a look. Just curious, why no Subarus? The Outback V6 wagon is one of the best on the market, and there's no reliability concern there. It's also much cheaper than the A4 and 3 wagons.
Nissan has promised that the EX will get more rear legroom for 2010, although I wouldn't get too excited about this until the new cars actually hit the showrooms later this year & we can park our butts in the back seats & see for ourselves.
Will the EX also get the 7-speed transmission that's now standard in the G? I haven't heard yet.
I went over to Infiniti website to check the specs on the EX. I liked every thing I read except for the ladder style option package pricing i.e. to get one package require another.
The obvious one is the Honda CR-V... but after the whipping Honda took with their Accord hybrid, they are probably a little timid... although I really expect we will see a hybrid or diesel version of the CR-V at some point in the near future.
Toyota's original Highlander could have evolved in that direction, as it was a reasonable size, IMO, but they decided to make it much bigger. I still think the Highlander is a very good choice, however.
When it comes to larger vehicles, like SUVs, I question the Honda IMA system... I suspect that Toyota's system is more capable and better engineered. The Honda IMA system just assists the engine, and the engine never completely disengages, while the Toyota system is a more genuine hybrid in that the engine completely disengages and the vehicle is more capable of running on electric alone. The differences in the systems is quite possibly the reason that Toyota has been building the Lexus RX hybrid and the Highlander hybrid for quite some time now while Honda is still trying to figure out how to play catch up.
If I was going to buy a hybrid SUV again, I would have to say that the Ford Escape hybrid is pretty good, but I bought it due to my daughter's desires. I personally might be more inclined to consider the Toyota Highlander hybrid.
TM
It may be more exciting than the last one, but that's like saying that French Vanilla ice cream is more exciting than Vanilla icre cream.
LG, have you test driven the RH450h yet? After you do so, I will welcome your honest opinion. Given the criteria that 2001gs430 has stipulated, I do not believe there is a car out there that would be a better fit for this criteria.
I am not sure that the RX450h can go from 0-60 in less than 7 seconds (I think it is rated at 7.2, but I could be wrong). If not, who cares? The acceleration is more than good enough. Also, I think that the styling is nice. It does have some subtle differences from that of the RX350. For example, the front grill is wavy and looks sharper. The handling is much better than the previous generation, it is very quiet, very comfortable, and the steering smooth.
Here is something else to chew on. We just flew back from Seattle a few hours ago. I could not resist. I took it for a nice test drive of about 30 miles around the city. The environmental conditions were ideal with temperatures in the mid to high 70's and fairly low humidity for this area this time of year. The AC was off. Guess what I got for gas mileage? You will not, so I will tell you....46.4 mpg. I was traveling at between 30 and 50 mph most of the time, but I did have to stop at numerous traffic lights. I'm sure that in the real world, (turning the power off for stops to grocery store, etc., very hot or very cold) the mileage will not be this awesome, but I am very impressed with what I have seen on this test.
I had it on the ECO mode and I tried to follow the common sense rules of driving to save fuel. BTW, the HUD (Heads Up Display) is fantastic now that I know how it operates. I love the navigation guidance on the HUD. Also, there is NO doubt about it. The voice recognition system on this new generation is SO much better than the previous one. I paired my G1 phone on the system quickly. While I was driving I thought I would try to place a call to my son in Seattle solely by voice recognition. I went through the process and said "dial by number". I announced the number rather quickly and it worked flawlessly. There was no way I could have done this with the previous system on the first try. Sometimes, I could not do this at all on the RX400h. Everything about the RX450h is far superior to the RX400h.
Charlie,
You know my position on oil.Take away a bunch of hedge funds (and CNBC cronies that support them) trying and failing to make oil a currency (which results in all of us paying artificially high prices) and oil wuld be lucky if it was at $45 a barrel right now. I'll bet you we don't consume as much oil as we did last year until 2015 or so, if then. With so many businesses switching to natural gas and more and more hybrids and efficient cars that are coming we are going to need serious economic improvement to get back to last years consumption levels. We are certainly going to need a better economy than the over-leveraged one we had in the years leading up to 2008 and with business shrinkage and the nations savings rate growing, it's going to be many years before we get there. Meanwhile hedge funds fears of inflation keep getting in the way of that with them driving us to artificially high commodity and food prices thanks to a lot of senseless speculation. The only way to get commodity prices to levels those funds want, and to keep them there is by having support from natural business fundamentals. There's been a huge draw on hedge funds already and if Obama throws some regulations there, we'll see a lot more drawing of money from the funds. That and fixing the leverage allowed in many of these small commodity markets will go a long way to correcting prices so that they are more in sync with real demand fundamentals.
Len, don't get me started on those "CNBC cronies". They are digusting. Instead of doing their job and report the business news, they constantly editorialize so that the common folks are forced to get their biased (and much of the time) wrong views. They really tick me off. Having said this, FOX News is even worse.
Agree. Fox news originally started out in the right direction, IMO, with good intentions... but then took a very wrong turn, and is clearly misguided.
BTW, nice review of your recent 30-minute dirve. Very impressive.
Oh... Regarding oil and gasoline prices, regardless of what analysis we use and blame we place, or trying to determine what the price of oil and gas should be... when it's all said and done, the bottom line is ultimately the actual real-life price itself.
TM
No, in fact I've been so bored with Lexus as of late that it's been quite awhile since I've driven any of them. When we get closer to turning in our X3, I'll take one out and let you know. The Q5 still remains at the top of the list, but if my wife doesn't like it, I suppose another RX could be a possibility. Still, I have to wonder if the $5700 premium for the 450 over the 350 when both are equipped with the premium/NAV package could ever be made up in a reasonable amount of time and mileage. I think both versions look like a block of cheese, so I'm not particularly interested in the grille treatment.
My biggest concern with the RX is on-center feel. I don't expect it to load in to corners or provide the feedback of an Audi setup. The RX300's steering was so incredibly over-boosted and so full of Aunt Jemima that you had to constantly seesaw the wheel just to keep it in a straight line. The amount of on-center slop was just atrocious. The most recent Toyota product I drove was a new Camry SE, and the steering was basically identical to our old RX300. Hopefully the new RX is a bit better than that.
You honestly believe the natural price of oil would have been in the $70's last week, $64 and change now in a natural market which showed no signs of oil consumption required to bring prices up from the high $30's and low $40's. Do you really think $147 was a natural price a year ago at this time? Just look at the timing of the Goldman report (which BTW was released a week earlier than it was supposed to be in order to offset a horrendous inventory report that would have crushed prices). These commodity markets are all small and easily manipulated thanks to 20:1 leverage ratios allowed in them vs 2:1 in the much much larger stock and bonds markets. The Goldman report was released early in order to catch a lot of shorts who bet on a bad inventory report and it came in even worse than the shorts hoped for. I have a hard time even thinking of oil as a "real" market. This market dropped 78% last year in less than 6 months. This year s/b a lot better though as the fall from the high should be a mere 40-45%.
You want to make money. Just buy oil as soon as Nicaragua starts getting mentioned and note how it's never mentioned during declines. Get out of it ASAP when the ink dries up on Nicaragua terrorist news though.
Ha, don't even get me started. Mark Sanford (D). They do that every time.
NO! Never said so.
But, one thing I do see as natural among many investors is greed. Another thing I see is that old "irrational exuberance". These things twist the fundamentals, sometimes for extended periods. Ultimately, reality often comes in the form of a rude awakening... but in the meantime we can end up with things like protracted high energy prices. Hope that is clearer.
TM
Here is a chart depicting the last 12 months of avg.oil/gasoline prices in SD. I still agree with ljflx that the price will drop big time. True, the speculators are another factor in the mix but fundamentals beware! The economy is NOT headed up yet as the CNBC GreenShoot Farmers are now turning into WeedHarvestors!
Regards,
OW
That's OK...
I know you are just waiting for the day when oil prices drop enough to tell me "I told you so".
That all said... what's the story on the market in your opinion? Still looking for the Dow to be above 10,000 by year-end? Or are you now leaning towards my more-conservative prediction of 9000+/-?
TM
First of all best of luck with the RX.
On the lease - depends on interest rate on the conventional lease. If it's real low why pay it off so fast? But I have a hard time even thinking about making one lease payment because it's too close to buying a vehicle outright. From my standpoint the purpose of a lease is to keep liquidity rather than tie it up in a vehicle.
BTW - Benz dealer near me is doing a 42 month lease on a $95K S550 4 matic with 5 grand down (that covers sales tax and a down payment) and $999 a month. If I were in the market for a car I'd have a hard time passing that up unless Lexus can do better on the 460L AWD. I love both cars and in a big sedan have no interest in anything else.
So far the G, LS460L and GL450 are flawless save for the LS recall which I am doing on Friday with normal service. Biggest problem I've had is on the G, if you can call the rubber around both passenger and driver side door sagging a bit and needing replacement a problem. The GL450 was the perfect SUV for my needs and I am thoroughly enjoying it. It's biggest problem so far is the man made leather stains from dark blue denim way too easily and of course the infamous brake dust.
The G has far and away the best phone system in that it can have 5 active phones on blue tooth and the voice system is painlessly easy to use. On the Benz and Lexus you can only have 1 phone active at once and have to go in and manually select other phones you have paired. This is one royal pain - particularly on the LS as you can't change once you are driving unless you pull over (haven't tried it yet on the Benz so it may be the same) - and it defeats luxury. Why both brands don't do what Infiniti does is beyond me and why Lexus doesn't tie the phone to the user selection is also beyond me. Then they give you all that great technology for the phone and nav and say you can't touch it once the car is rolling. I'd strangle their stupid lawyers if I could get a hand on them.
Nope - not at all. I've given up trying to figure out senserless speculation, and my POV is always tied to realism. I laugh everytime I see a bozo on CNBC saying a market is not tied to fundamentals and trades to its own beat. I hear that and I just wait for the TIMBER warning.. If you note everything I post about is fundamentals. If oil had better fundamentals I'd be with you in a second. But it doesn't and manipulation runs out of gas (no pun intended). I was'nt happy about selling Apple at $128.50 even after it fell to 118 because that 118 was fear overlooking fabulous fundamentals. I'm kicking myself for not buying it back at that point. I have an auto buy in at $130 if it falls that low. I see it at $160-$180 by early next year. My thinking is that earnings propel the stock market much higher in the 4th quarter thanks to great cost efficiencies that have now been set up but that we see very little uptick in oil demand. Mid next year I can see some fundamental support for oil but we are 6-8 years away from anything resembling demand like last year - IMO - of course.
Re - Dow 10,000 - I'm still there thanks to my thinking of a furious late year rally driven by increasing 3rd quarter results and rosy outlooks.
http://s567.photobucket.com/albums/ss120/PatsSoxFan/
One thing to note is that the NY times ran a story today about governments of the world starting to meet and come up with legislation against excess oil speculation. If that starts to happen than oil can really tank and speculators will have a hard time propping up prices in advance of increasing demand as per your post. One has to take into consideration this is a very real possibility. As well we can't have such vital markets being priced to speculators dreams and hopes given the monster crashes such folks have caused. Take away the speculative bubbles in oil that happened in the 70's, gulf war, 9/11 and last year and oil has been quite stable and very cheap. Governments of the world are a lot more hardened to do something about this, this time bcause of all the bail out money they've poured in. Many are quite angry about the unwarranted oil speculation of the past 4-5 months. One report I read had oil at 80% speculation - which is even higher than last year. If that unwinds too quickly it's another reason why this market could unravel and collapse in a hurry.
Link to times story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/business/06oil.html?_r=1
You are so right about these phone and navigation restrictions with Lexus. Overall however, it sounds like we are both very happy with our vehicles.
Completely agree. The LS460L has been phenomenal and I don't think I could ever get tired of the color we both chose. I also love the ash interior and grey wood I got. Everytime I look at it i think it's granite instead of wood.
Either way, it's all messed up, Len. Not healthy. IMVHO, of course. But, I still see some recovery down the road... just not as quick as you seem to. Which makes me wonder just how it is that you see the recovery, yet you don't see the oil demand increasing along with that recovery, which would theoretically support the higher prices. :confuse:
TM
I think you will find the following article from early this morning extremely interesting. It very much jives wqith Len's thinking.
07/07 05:53 CDT Limits on energy futures to be aired
Limits on energy futures to be aired
By MARCY GORDON
AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal regulators will examine whether the government
should impose limits on the number of futures contracts in oil and other energy
commodities held by speculative traders, the head of the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission said Tuesday.
The agency will hold a public hearing later this month to gather views from
consumers, businesses and market participants on the idea of new limits for
energy futures contracts, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement. It
will be the first in a series of hearings in July and August on various topics
to determine how the commodities agency "should use all of its existing
authorities to accomplish its mission," he said.
The move comes against a backdrop of concern in Congress and complaints by
traders over speculation in the oil futures market.
By law, the CFTC sets limits on the amount of futures contracts in some
agricultural products that can be held by each market participant to protect
the market against manipulation. But for energy commodities _ crude oil,
heating oil, natural gas, gasoline and other energy products _ it is the
futures exchanges themselves that set the position limits if they desire to do
so.
"This different regulatory approach to position limits for agriculture and
other physically delivered commodities deserves thoughtful review," Gensler's
statement said. "It is incumbent upon the CFTC to ensure a fair and transparent
price discovery process for all commodities."
Oil traders and brokers have griped that funds traded on exchanges, such as the
United States Oil Fund, have pumped billions of dollars into energy commodities
_ enough to artificially prop up energy prices.
For example, benchmark crude oil prices have roughly doubled since March even
though government reports show U.S. supplies brimming with surplus oil.
Investors have been buying oil barrels not because of traditional supply and
demand, but on the expectation that the economy will eventually improve. Some
are also buying crude oil as a hedge against inflation, betting that the dollar
will get weaker and push the price of energy commodities even higher.
Merrill Lynch estimates that investors are currently plowing $125 billion into
commodity indices like the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, up from $80 billion in
February. However, much of the increase is due to a rebound in commodity
prices, Merrill Lynch analysts said.
In Congress, the House approved measures last fall aimed at curbing excessive
speculation and trading abuses in oil and other commodity markets, despite a
threatened veto by President George W. Bush. The bipartisan legislation called
for giving the CFTC broader authority and limiting the size of the position
that traders can hold in certain markets. It stalled in the Senate, however.
The CFTC twice last year took the unusual step of disclosing investigations
into the possible manipulation of prices _ of crude oil and cotton futures.
Gensler also said the agency will make improvements to its weekly report on the
futures contracts positions held by commercial and noncommercial traders that
will provide fuller disclosure of the market data.
__
AP Energy Writer Chris Kahn in New York contributed to this report.
[Related Stories]
Futures Limits
Timber!
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
What a balanced energy market would deliver is a slower, stronger recovery to the GLOBAL market. The economic realities in that easy to understand perspective is far too illusive given the splintered details underlying the many economies of the global nations differing direction, particularly the oil rich nations
Hopefully a curb in rampant speculation could bring wild price swings under control.
I doubt this will happen anytime soon, however.
Regards,
OW
If the rules change to force the outcome, predicting would be meaningless, as the results would be controlled and obvious. No predictive skill required. End of game.
That said, I personally have never liked the absurd price swings, nor the bubbles, but I do want to see energy independence. Regulatory controls might just interfere with that. Heck, maybe next real estate investment will be controlled. Where does it end?
TM
Basically, free markets are taken over at extremes at either end and the greed/control bubbles burst.
BTW, I would not be so quick to say you won the price debate. If oill drops for 3 consecutive months matching the recent upside, Len was correct. You have to give it a short term mark to be fair!
Just keeping it real.
BTW, end of year Dow = 9,500
Regards,
OW
Completely agree. But putting a limit on margin that matches the ratios in other markets is not interference. It levels the playing field. It's absurd that a hedge fund has to put up $500mln to buy $1bln of stock but can buy $1bln of oil with only $50mln. Increasing the margin requirement 10X is not interference. It's the right thing to do. Capping purchases accomplishes the same thing but it looks a lot dirtier and regulatory. But it's what they do in agriculture so they seem to want to follow that. I saw a big German regulator saying they were deeply troubled by oil speculation on Bloomberg TV this morning, and they intended to curb it soon, so Europe may actually be in the lead here.There's a big difference between oil and gold to me. Oil is a consumer staple and is too easily manipulated by big leverage. That can't go on.
I beg to differ on this one whether it applies to oil or any commodity.
Enacting position limits and restricting large market neutral bets by hedge funds and investment firms will result in decreased liquidity. Such a result will cause hedging ( legitimate operational businesses and speculative kinds) to be far more expensive to the point where many firms may not even hedge and that in itself will expose businesses to far more risks.
So what happens if USA imposes new regulations? What do you honestly think will happen? Will hedge funds/investment firms discontinue their speculations?
Not a snow ball in hell chance!
They will just move their speculative bets to exchanges and offshore dealers in Singapore or Dubai. Foreigners will thank Americans for this new business. America is the financial capital of the world but remains incredibly vulnerable not from foreign competition but from US politicians in Washington.
Dumb money chasing dumb trends tends to correct itself in the long run just like it did since oil was about $150. Regulations are not the answer. If bubbles were a long term phenemonon then yes regulations are justified. But the fact of the matter is they aren't long term.
In a market that was above board I'd agree with you. But this is as dirty a market and as manipulated a market as I have ever seen. Other than the Hunts manipulation of silver in the late 70's I don't think I can even name something close to the level of manipulation in oil. It's literally criminal in it's behavior and manipulation. So I agree with you in fair markets but not in this one and with Europe and America cutting off the manipulation I don't see the big funds having anywhere else to go. They will have to find another product to do it with.
The current luxo sedans are boring. There isn't really much happenning in lux land. The new big Jag isn't here yet. The 750i seems to be techno overkill more aimed at a 27 year old computer gamer. The S550 is great but the depreciation isn't good and at this stage in our lives do we really want to take 90K out of our depleted savings account to buy one? The Maser is OK now that the tranny is worked out but it does look like a Buick. A Lexus? Sorry. Can't do it.
The board doesn't seem to get any younger. Not too long ago I thought that I should get a 997 Carrera 4. I spent some time optioning it out (for those that are interested, I think that a 997 without the big, noisey tires and with minimal options is the way to go). Now I realize that what I really want is something more comfortable, easier to get into, and with a higher sight line for my 5'10" frame.
Where does that leave us? I guess I want more involvement AND comfort. One of the new vehicles that interests me, although I don't see myself buying one, is the new Jeep JK , four door Wrangler. Especially with a Hemi engine stuffed in as offerred by both AEV and Burnnvile Automotive. While it goes like heck, the money is all wrong. You could probably buy a new Cayenne Turbo for less money. A used Saab 9-3 with a stick shift would be another great summer toy. You could probably pick up a 2007/9 for under 20K and have a ball.
Speaking of Cayennes. While my 2005 Cayenne runs well, I took my 2008 Silverado Extended Cab up to Montreal over the 4th because it is actually more comfortable with its leather seats , has more room in the cabin for stuff, and is a better turnpike cruiser. The only maintenance for the first 100,000 miles is to change the oil and rotate the tires once in a while. I now know why Car & Driver named its cousin, the Suburban, the best car in America.
The action might be one notch down. Maybe the real action is one level down. The new E Class is apparently a great car. Mercedes calls it their best car ever. (So why buy an S550?). It is selling at full list price in New England. My Porsche dealer gave me an A6 as a loaner recently and I liked it. Great ergonomics, etc. Who needs an A8?
As NevadaBanker used to say years ago, YMMV (your mileage may vary,
To be honest I had no extended experience with it, just a short test drive and all I can say is: the closest to carlike as it can be.
cyclone: the RX may be a decent ride, but in gs' case handling/performance is a requirement, and let's face it the RX clearly doesn't deliver that.
Why not subaru? Well, in my case its the horrible looks and the diluted sportiness in current models. :shades:
He narrowed down his list to a line of 1 or 2 yr old VW Touareg, Infiniti FX, or Range Rover Sport. His biggest concern is aftersales service, having heard of VW and Rover's bad rep in this particular area. Seat comfort and product quality inside out are on top of the list, handling not so important to him.
The 2 FXs I know have only been to the dealer for routine service in 60 and 80 k miles. Brakes were pricey.
The 2 Touaregs I know of have not have a stellar service history, nor have they had a good dealer relationship. One of these was a fleet test vehicle so I would have expected that to affect things somewhat.
The RR I know of doesn't get enough mileage put on it to be a valid data point. Every few months it goes back to the dealer for an oil change or routine service based on time, not mileage.
All of these vehicles live in Michigan.
aftersales service,
Seat comfort and product quality inside out are on top of the list
Lexus LX hand down winner for above three conditions
TM