Are automobiles a major cause of global warming?

stever

Jeff Masters has weighed in.

Digestible summary of the report if nothing else.

gagrice

So IPCC says GW is 95% man made. But the cooling over the last 15 Years is naturally caused. Hmmm, why don't we get credit for the cooling as well? I can see I would not believe most of what Jeff Masters says. Oh, I don't. He has weather Underground that I have up on my computer most of the time. And most of the time his predictions are wrong for San Diego. Well at least 50% of the time he is wrong. So it would be safe to say he is only right about 50% of the time in his short term assessment of the weather. If man gets 95% of the credit for GW, we should get 95% of the credit when it gets cooler.

houdini1

Yes, it is like when our gov. tells us not to blame all Muslims because of the actions of a few radicals...but then wants us to believe that all gun owners are bad because of the actions of a few lunatics.

Whatever is expedient.

If man is causing GW, we have already lost the battle.

stever

Just trying to fill your weekend. :-)

Someone commenting over at Judith Curry's blog was giving her a hard time for writing an op-ed for an Aussie newspaper after saying a year or two ago that writing op-eds was something only advocates do, not "true" scientists, whatever that means. Interesting that her name has dropped off the face of the earth over at that Berkeley Earth/Muller web site.

The nosing around did lead me to a great Thoreau quote I'd never heard:

"Circumstantial evidence is occasionally very convincing, as when you find a trout in the milk." (Yahoo)

Sounds like something Shifty would come up with. :-)

gagrice

Just trying to fill your weekend.

As I try doing for you, ;-)

I really don't lose sleep over anything. It's all just fun. You can thank me for putting out about 42% less CO2 with my diesel ride. Of course I am driving more, oh well, got a long ways to catch up with Al Gore's Carbon Foot print.

gagrice

China is quickly becoming the leader in high speed rail service. If not the leader already. The Chinese built our first cross country RR. Will they build our high speed RR?

Just five years after China’s high-speed rail system opened, it is carrying nearly twice as many passengers each month as the country’s domestic airline industry. With traffic growing 28 percent a year for the last several years, China’s high-speed rail network will handle more passengers by early next year than the 54 million people a month who board domestic flights in the United States.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed-train-system-is-hug- e-success-for-china.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

houdini1

My money is on Elon Musk and his hyper loop system.

stever

He's already got the hype part down.

gagrice

I think Hyperloop would make a great "E" ticket ride at Disneyland. Not sure I would want to be that confined from LA to SF.

stever

T'would only be 2 hours on a Chinese bullet train (maybe 3 riding on Jerry's train?).

gagrice

If the report I read is accurate, humans exhaling are responsible for 8.99% of all man produced CO2. 7 billion people put out as much CO2 as 550,000,000 cars. Think how much we could cool the planet if all the GW Alarmist would stop exhaling. Of course they are all hypocrites if they are using any fossil fuel or any product made with energy generated by fossil fuel. Not to mention eating meat as those critters all put out lots of CO2.

A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion -- Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent.

stever

It'll just take another "climate" event to swing the polls back around - just look at Germany's plans for renewable energy after Fukushima.

In German car news, "The Germans have certainly put their money and prestige on the table. But they differ from Nissan, Toyota, GM, Ford and others all heavily committed to electrified vehicles in one critical way: Instead of entering the market with a sensible sales pitch, the Germans plan to zap consumers with the notion that electrics have sex appeal." (Globe and Mail)

The auto market is so weak there, they may be willing to try anything to generate some interest in car sales.

gagrice

Typical knee jerk reaction on the Nukes. Now they are buying nuclear power from France.

Why not get in on the US money giveaway for EVs and plugins? BMW sure shows em what is sexy, UGGGLY.

houdini1

If people would just stop and think it through, man is not responsible for any of the CO2 in the atmosphere. All the CO2 has been here since the earth first formed.

In the distant past there was over 5,000ppm in the atmosphere and the earth flourished. Over time much of the CO2 was captured by the earth and turned into gas, coal, and oil.

Now we are down to about 400ppm. Man is only putting back a small percentage of the CO2 that was already once there.

stever

Funny how you never hear about any problems with French nukes. Of course, if they did have a meltdown, the radiation releases would stop at their border, just as the Chernobyl cloud did, lol. (independent.co.uk)

gagrice

I cannot name one source of energy alternative, fossil, hydro, geothermal, nuclear etc that does not have Eco nut opposition. Those that feel strongly compelled to not use any of our resources should just move into a cave. Only use natural light. Gather your food or grow it. Have enough plants to mitigate your CO2 exhaling. When they get to Zero Carbon footprint, I would consider them ecological honest. Not one lb of carbon before.

stever

Dark, dank and cold. Be worse than those "earthship" houses outside of Taos. And your view would never change.

gagrice

Hey that is what the CC Political pukes want for US peons. Of course no problem money can't overcome even in a cave.

http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mhj45gmkd/the-cave-house-bisbee-az/content?partne- r=yahoore

gagrice

MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen Rips UN IPCC Report: ‘The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence’ — ‘It is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep the international climate agenda going’

I think that the latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence. They are proclaiming increased confidence in their models as the discrepancies between their models and observations increase.

Their excuse for the absence of warming over the past 17 years is that the heat is hiding in the deep ocean. However, this is simply an admission that the models fail to simulate the exchanges of heat between the surface layers and the deeper oceans. However, it is this heat transport that plays a major role in natural internal variability of climate, and the IPCC assertions that observed warming can be attributed to man depend crucially on their assertion that these models accurately simulate natural internal variability. Thus, they now, somewhat obscurely, admit that their crucial assumption was totally unjustified.

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/09/28/mit-climate-scientist-dr-richard-lindzen-- rips-un-ipcc-report-the-latest-ipcc-report-has-truly-sunk-to-level-of-hilarious-- incoherence-it-is-quite-amazing-to-see-the-contortions-the-ipcc-has/

stever

Cato, Heartland, Exxon and OPEC. The usual suspects.

I don't think Curry has all that baggage.

houdini1

They have sunk to a new level. These double talking jokers (ipcc) are so transparent that I am amazed that anyone would believe a word they say.

I can understand why those whose livelihood depends on the "Big Lie" would go along with this insanity, but how anyone else could fall for their lies and misinformation is a big mystery to me.

I think the ipcc is so used to the media carrying their water that they think they can get away with anything. Yahoo must have had 10 stories extolling the virtues of this latest fraudulent report, and the same goes for NBC, CBS, and ABC. This so called main street media is slowly committing suicide.

stever

Not transparent enough. They should be linking to all their studies and the studies shouldn't all be hiding behind pay firewalls at the journal sites. Especially those that are funded in all or part by tax dollars.

gagrice

So does Judith Curry buy the IPCC spin by the so called scientific community? Does not sound like it from this statement of hers.

In terms of reasons for model underestimation, the apparent ‘preferred’ explanation of ‘the ocean ate it’ does not get any play here, other than in context of a brief consideration of natural internal variability. Their conclusion This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability is right on the money IMO, although I don’t think their analysis of why the models might be wrong was particularly illuminating. If you would like further illumination on why the climate models might be wrong, I refer you to my uncertainty monster paper.

http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/overestimated-global-warming-over-the-past-20-- years/

gagrice

Curry warns of the 'danger of a manufactured consensus on climate change to the healthy evolution of climate science. We’ve lost decades in climate science by failing to pay adequate attention to natural climate variability. By failing to pay adequate attention to uncertainty and natural climate variability, the climate community is facing the following prospect:

If that consensus is now falling apart, as it seems it may be, that is, for good or ill, a very big deal.'

http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/20/the-economist-on-the-new-republic-on-the-pause- /

stever

No, nor is she apparently in the back pocket of any of the groups, pro or con. Seems more balanced than most. Until recently she didn't even do any op-ed stuff, but she fell off that wagon. :shades:

gagrice

CC is just one of many issues in this country that have divided US. Here is the take from Discover Magazine. Good to see someone not totally bought off by the Political oligarchy.

Notice the framing, how Curry is associated with Republicans who have in recent years made dismissal of climate change a litmus test for GOP membership. Since Republicans have painted themselves as Team Climate Denial and Curry is viewed as their ally, what does that make her?

Now, those familiar with Curry know that she doesn’t belong on Team Climate Denial. She just doesn’t want be on Team Climate Doom. She doesn’t want to be on any team, it seems. In fact, she’s made a name for herself by criticizing tribal behavior in the climate science community. See, for example, this 2010 profile of her in Scientific American, which of course some climate science gatekeepers took issue with at the time.

Since then, Curry has regularly probed and highlighted aspects of climate science that remain uncertain, such as the role natural variation plays in climate change. Curry sees this as part of the larger scientific discussion, but plenty others, including many of her peers, see it as aiding Team Denial (and their evil offshoot, Team Inaction). This has put Curry outside the mainstream of the climate science community. Indeed, as the NPR piece notes,

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/collideascape/2013/08/23/climate-puffery/#.Ukj- gXFMQTcw

gagrice

Balance is difficult when a group shuts out anyone that disagrees on scientific studies. When you have the power of the Federal Government behind you as the GW alarmist have had for decades, anyone that questions their dogma is crushed. Leftist rags like Climate Progress loved Curry until she questioned the shady science.

stever

Well, it's not shady, and that's the whole idea. Scientists are supposed to question everything. Some think that Curry flip-flopped but you can say the same thing about Mueller.

gagrice

I don't think it is the Science being challenged. It is the computer models that are easily tweaked. That and finding scientists that are not afraid of losing their cushy jobs. You think for a minute a scientist at a CA University would last long if he went against the politics of the system? Those are very high paying jobs. Compromise is easier when you look at your check book.

PS
I would not trust anything coming out of the University of CA system. It is Corrupt to the max.

houdini1

The only thing transparent about the ipcc is their self serving agenda. Most people can see right through that.

stever

That's why they invented tenure.

gagrice

I don't think tenure would protect a professor in most state run universities. Look at Ward Churchill. over 15 years of tenure. Native American heritage. Writes a controversial piece on 9/11 and they start looking for ways to get rid of him. I would say in CA a GW skeptic is a bigger target than a 9/11 skeptic. Are there any published GW skeptics in the CA controlled universities? If not it proves my point.

gagrice

Just looking for Richard Muller on the UC Berkeley pay roll. He made $192,727 as a full professor in 2007. Nothing until 2011 when he got $28k and nothing in 2012. I guess they allow him on campus at Berkeley. He just no longer gets the fat paycheck. It don't pay to buck the GW Cult.

stever

Oh, I didn't nose around. The Berkeley Earth site says he's a "Professor of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley, Faculty Senior Scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and President of Muller & Associates LLC."

Maybe his money is getting passed through and is off the university books now.

Muller bucked the Kochs and he hasn't been bumped off. Yet.

gagrice

The Koch Bros don't need him. They have the majority of the Populace on their side. Besides Lindzen chewed him up in a debate didn't he? He is not a climate scientist. Just wanted to get in on the GW gravy. He is no longer on the Payroll at Berkeley. May be a non paid research scientist. State could shuffle money to his corporation. That way he gets off the big income tax role.

gagrice

I want you to read this paragraph and see where I am at.

A University of California-Berkeley study on earth surface temperatures, financed in large part by Libertarian petrochemical billionaire Charles Koch's foundation, has found that global warming is indeed happening and that the emissions of greenhouse gases are truly caused by humans.

University of California-Berkeley Physics professor Richard A. Muller, who led the new study, told Whispers that he believes the Koch brothers really do "want to get the science clarified."

"People think they can look into the minds of Charles and David Koch," says Muller, who himself was previously a climate change denier. "But I have had conversations with them, where they are interested in the science and the proof, so that these issues [on climate change] would be resolved."

David Koch held a campaign event for GOP candidate Mitt Romney, who has said he does believes climate change "is occurring."

Elizabeth Muller, executive director of the Berkeley Earth Project, tells Whispers she too believes the Koch brothers are genuinely interested in the science.

Muller points out that the Arlington, Va.-based foundation's $150,000 grant for the study was "unrestricted," and that the study's stated purpose was to "increase the transparency" of climate change studies.

stever

They were backpedaling pretty good a couple of years ago when the "warming is indeed happening" findings were released by Muller.

I guess you noticed that Koch quit funding Berkeley Earth after the first round (they are now in their third round of funding).

gagrice

To me the point of the piece was agreeing there is warming and that humans do create GHG. Where I differ with the Alarmist is whether GHG causes warming or cooling. And what percentage of GHG is man made and which is natural. If CO2 is at its highest level on record, and CO2 causes GW, why isn't it warming the last 17 years with the rise in CO2? Also not sure what makes Muller an authority on climate. I will stick with the more balanced approach of true climate scientists Curry and Lindzen.

houdini1

The one big elephant in the room when it comes to GW is water vapor. It is by far the largest GHG and has been estimated to cause 98% of GW....and that is a good thing because without water vapor we would all be freezing.

Everything else doesn't amount to much....except a way to separate fools from their cash.

stever

Well, Lindzen has been outed as an Exxon shill, but rather than playing the name game, we can sit back and "watch the weather." It's pretty funny that people are picking sides based on cherry picked evidence, or because they like or dislike Al Gore. Easier than trying to absorb literally hundreds of study abstracts.

gagrice

Al Gore is the worst money grabber of the bunch. With absolutely no Morals. He spews GHG by the tons in his jet, and idling Limos. And two homes the size of Kansas. That is YOUR GW Spokesman. I wonder how many that follow him like a puppy dog have made a $100 million on the GW Scam? I will take a renowned scientist from MIT over a NO Nothing lying politician any day. It seems it was a prominent MIT scientist that proved ethanol from Corn was a losing proposition. The Politicians didn't listen to him either. You keep repeating the link between Lindzen and Exxon. Yet I cannot find a single credible tie. If Exxon sponsors a meeting that 600 scientists attend, that does not make them all shills for Exxon. I trust Exxon far more than our Congress and President to do the right thing.

stever

lol, just who do you think is telling the pols what to do if not the corporations?

"In 2012, Exxon Mobil Corporation contributed a total of $282,400 to legislative and gubernatorial candidates and caucuses in 15 states". That doesn't count the employees, who kicked in another mil just for the federal races. (link)

houdini1

Wow, they need to step up their contributions if they want to get anything done. $282,000 is chump change to them. I am shocked.

gagrice

lol, just who do you think is telling the pols what to do if not the corporations?

That makes the politicians the corrupt ones. If they don't feed at the trough they are not part of the problem. Blaming it on the corps is disingenuous. The are competing for the ears of Congress against the other corps, unions and special interest groups. Those are the rules Congress has established. Our Corporate oligarchy is corrupt.

The bottom line. The GW alarmist are out to filch the middle class tax payers. The Skeptics are looking out for US the tax payers. That makes the skeptics the good guys and the Politicians the bad guys IMHO.

Hopefully a few NON state owned universities like MIT, have a little integrity. Though most are given grant money with strings attached.

gagrice

That is what I was thinking. Bill Maher put up a million himself to get his agenda pushed to the front. That makes him about 4 times as corrupt as Exxon. Soros put up $400 million to educate the STUPID masses about his agenda. I wonder if Exxon realizes they are being made to look like pikers. Or are they just happy keeping our cars filled with fuel and avoiding shortages caused by the corrupt politicians in the past.

stever

Our Corporate oligarchy is corrupt.

I could have sworn that was a certain Mercedes owner posting just now - had to do a double take.

gagrice

Well he is correct on that count. Just finished dinner with a friend of ours. She works in the SSI office. She was due for a leave starting Wednesday. They informed her all leaves are cancelled. She is required to come to work tomorrow no matter what. They will only be there to tell the customers there is nothing they can do to help them until the budget is settled. They will likely get paid for showing up to work.

I see NO reason to trust my government. I love my country and despise our government.

houdini1

Those that are being furloughed are really getting a paid vacation. In all past cases, when the gov. reopens, they all get their pay retroactively.

gagrice

Our friend that works for SSI was told to report to work. She had a leave planned and it was cancelled. Be interesting to see what shakes out. Politics as usual. I am wondering if my SS check gets deposited tomorrow. We shall see.

gagrice

Looks like Bangaladesh is doing their part to cut down on CO2. Not sure about Methane?

http://safeshare.tv/w/vwncRciSFb