Good to hear from you, Len. Colts Neck will never be the same without you! But you won't miss the recent snowy winters we've been experiencing.
I'm going to check out Myrtle Beach and Sarasota area in FL so thanks for the tips. When I told my wife about the your post, she is excited, particularly about the low % of hurricane hits you mentioned. I also am drawn to the Destin area up north. I'm about 5 years behind you in a move.
Anyway, thanks for your post, enlightening as always and enjoy your Mercs!!
I'm all in on stocks as well and chuckle at Marc Faber's recent prediction of a 30% landslide. Not that it's impossible but he's predicted it's just around the corner for a few years now!
Guys, this is a permanent move but it's 2 years out. I just got back notice from my lawyer down there that the title on the property is as clean as anything he's ever seen so my due diilligence on the land is now complete. The builder has already had a pre-lim meeting with the town and is expecting full approval of the floorplans and construction in August and we are just awaiting an updated survey. By the time all the detailed archictectual work is done, not the design but the buildout architecture and permits etc are finalized we expect to start building in December and then it's likely to be 18 months to completion so I'm looking at summer 2016. One thing that's so much better for building in Florida is weather. You don't worry about a place that has 360 of 365 days as partly or mostly sunny and building in the heart of winter is best suited for workers. From a financial POV I'm banking on real estate prices to rise and they are starting to recover more and more quickly in Florida. I'm locking in future prices of that home at today's prices and intendoing to sell here at tomorrows prices. Down in the Sarasota area of Florida local builders are buying the land and starting to spec homes on the Gulf and on Sarasota Bay and they attract a lot of European buyers, who think buying here is more financially attractive than buying in Europe. We've bought on Casey Key which is about 30 minutes south of Sarasota and its very residential and has a Carribean island feel. There's a height restriction on building so you don't see tall condos or commercial hotels which is what gives the area a secluded island feel. I love Sarasota and St Armand's Circle which almost gives you a mini NYC feel in a tropical setting and the area restaurants are fantastic. Keys in Florida for anyone building are your outside lanai's, pool, balconies and building each bedroom as a suite with walk-in closet and full baths and perhaps most importan feature of all - an interior elevator especially if you build waterfront. Fireplaces are not important but you want at least 1 (multiple ones are not needed) and excessively big homes of 8-10K feet with theatre rooms are out. No one wants a home on the gulf or Sarasota Bay with a darkened room hiding water views any more. What is in are well thought out, bright and airy 3500-6000' homes with 10-12' ceilings. On the ocean and bay all new homes are mainly 3 story with the first level being an above ground basement and garage and then a second and third level for living. It's hard to get a wide gulf front lot without paying a super steep price. Mine has 100' of frontage so at most you can build a home with about 2800' of living space on the main floor and then a similar living space above it. If you get a lot that is wider than you can build a larger first floor and kill off the second floor. But personally in the area that I bought I much rather have the second floor which will have 3 bedrooms and a second great room. The master bedroom will be on the first living floor. That's because the front of my house will have a view of the harbor and the back is the gulf and a high view of each is priceless. We intend to turn one bedroom into a study but preserve it as a bedroom suite at the same time. Now my problem is waiting this whole thing out.
Finally from a financial standpoint the move from NJ or any high tax state to Florida is a great move. Florida subsidizes you acquisition because there are no state income taxes and their is no estate/inheritance tax. NJ has a 10% estate tax and an 8-10% top bracket tax on incomes. So take 10% of whatever your estate will be worth and deduct that from your purchase and that to me is your real out of pocket costs. Now depending on where you buy you may be paying higher real estate taxes. But vis a vis NJ at least I probably save 20-25K a year in state taxes.
It's the Florida panhandle across to Corpus Christi that is the big hurricane threat in the gulf. Very few storms tend to move NE or east into the west coast of Florida because of the nature of storms to move north, NW or west with prevailing wind currents. Usually obes that move toward the west coasty of Florida are weak systems. The two recent ones that did move toward the west coast and were solid storms were Charley, which was a small but potent storm and Wilma, which I believe struck way south below Naples and ran thru the everglades. Wilma was unusual in that it stalled off of Cozumel as a cat 5 storm. See the photo in the link below which has Wilma's eye over the island. They were in sunshine almost all day as the hurricane raged all around them because it was moving at under 2 mph. Wilma then made a sharp turn and got caught up in a winter jet which enhanced its western flank as it drove it toward Florida and then across and into the Arlantic. The upper air winter like jet energized the storm sought of the way Sandy was energized in our area. Bottom line is that was a real unusual situation and not your usual tropical system as it was very late in the hurricane season. Now Myrtle is a different story. That is an area that can get blasted with late developing hurricanes that blow up just offshore in that gulf stream current. That's how Hugo wiped out Charleston. I'd have a lot more fear of hurricanes in South Carolina than I would in Sarasota and I'd have the greatest fear of them across the northern gulf from the Florida panhandle on west. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wilma_in_cozumel_island-109920_m.jpg
@ljflx said:
3500-6000' homes with 10-12' ceilings. On the ocean and bay all new homes are mainly 3 story with the first level being an above ground basement and garage and then a second and third level for living.
It is probably also smart to have the first level as basement and garage, just in case you ever do have high water...but you might need a garage elevator for your cars !
You'd probably be under mandatory evacuation on any of the barrier islands or gulf front lots if you had a situation in which a hurricane was coming in and that's really the only way you'd get bad flooding. Heavy rain doesn't do it - at least not on the gulf. In Florida I'll hold onto two cars, the S (via lease) and SL (I'm buying this one at lease end) and drop the SUV. The latter was a required car up here for snow plus just our needs. SL's are rare everywhere but not down there. You have to sit outside and eat at one of the restaurants on St Armand's Circle in Sarasota. Literally every second or third car that drives thru is a convertible. I could have rented a BMW convertible or a corvette at the airport if I wanted to. The only alternative I was thinking on cars is that I may want to buy or lease an S coupe. But they are not set up for leasing and the hard top convertible S coupe will be more than double the price of what I can buy out the SL for. Plus my SL has so few miles on it because it was impossible to drive it around here with all the snow we had last winter.. That's one car you don't want to drive on any ground that has ice or snow on it.
Houses that are candidates for lifting have also been accruing for years, at least the 50 years before Sandy that saw no storm with anything like its destructive force.
Andrew Baumgardner said that in New Jersey alone, 350,000 houses sustained some type of water damage from Sandy. “All of those plus others will face dramatic flood insurance increases if they don’t raise them,” he said.
Size is the biggest factor in the cost, affecting both the lifting and the building of the new foundation. He said an average home costs $60,000 to $70,000.
The savings from lifting a home can be substantial. He said one Beach Haven homeowner is saving $5,000 per year on flood insurance.
I'm all in on stocks as well and chuckle at Marc Faber's recent prediction of a 30% landslide. Not that it's impossible but he's predicted it's just around the corner for a few years now!
I cannot stand these analysts. They should be outlawed. For example, I haven't seen Doug Cass or Colin Gillis quoted on CNBC lately, in particular to badmouth Apple. This Doug Cass guy was more or less promoted as a God in 2012 since he was predicting that Apple would collapse. Apple did collapse as we know after September of 2012 but the problem was that Cass made that prediction in April of 2012 when AAPL was trading at about $600. How many followers of his could have withstood a $100 rally on the short side by mid September 2012?
And then we have Mr. Gillis. When Apple climbed back up to $500 earlier this spring, he was predicting that he did not see any more upside on AAPL. Great prediction, right? But CNBC does not talk about these jerks or hold them accountable when they are totally wrong.
Btw, I'm too lazy to look it up, but I believe I recall that I made a prediction about a year ago on this forum that the Dow would reach 17,000 in 2014. Maybe I'm off on the level so please don't crucify me if it is so.
I continue to be optimistic about the long term prospects of the stock market. I bet we reach 20,000 on the Dow within the next 12-18 months. A short term selloff of 5% or so is certainly possible and perhaps probable. They will eventually find an excuse to have a real correction. That Portugal one last week was a very stupid excuse in my opinion.
Finally, I hope Tony is ok health-wise and comes back here now that the forum seems to be coming back to life.
Ever follow Joe Bastardi in weather. Every storm is going to be the worst ever according to him. He's already forecasting winters 5 years out. 30" snowstorms are a dime a dozen with him. But people will remember the one time he's right and forget the 99 times he's wrong.
I know it's a broken record on AAPL for some, but even a hard-core MSFT guy like me knows a winner when he sees it. The stores are still packed and the MSFT store is looks more like Abercrombie and Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters!
@ljflx said:
Ever follow Joe Bastardi in weather. Every storm is going to be the worst ever according to him. He's already forecasting winters 5 years out. 30" snowstorms are a dime a dozen with him. But people will remember the one time he's right and forget the 99 times he's wrong.
That analogy perfectly describes the Farmer's Almanac. People only remember the one time it turns out to be right and forget about the numerous times it is full of crap.
The gold selloff today is easy to explain in my opinion. Since the bank crisis in Portugal is easing, then gold is sinking. Speaking of gold, in my humble opinion, gold will trade below $1,000 within a year or so. I wouldn't go long that "junk" if you paid me in gold.
All the money will be going into the stock market for several years to come. Pardon my Greek, but screw gold.
I've been biting my tongue not to post anything about AAPL since people were getting sick of hearing about it, but I LOVE how Apple has been behaving this year. The hell with those idiot analysts. I expect another great earnings report next Tuesday afternoon.
Speaking of Apple, looks like they may not have to pay those outrageous wages to the Chinese workers much longer. It will all be done by robots that do not mind working day and night.
The worst kept secret of Apple and its Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn isn't their poor labor conditions. It isn't even the fact that they use robots to help bring together all the pieces that make up an iPhone. It's that their robots are now performing more and more human-like functions.
In the past, it's always been people that put the finishing touches on the popular devices. Well, that's all about to change.
Foxconn parent company Hon Hai is set to deploy an army of 10,000 assembly-line robots to help meet the demands of producing the highly anticipated iPhone 6. Hon Hai CEO Terry Gou revealed in a recent shareholder meeting that Apple would be the very first customer of Foxconn's latest robots.
Big Time news! I have posted very little about Apple here the past 6 months. However, this news is huge in my opinion. Apple is partnering with IBM to create apps and sell iPhones and iPads. Interestingly, AAPL closed 1.13 lower today for unknown reasons, but it's sky-rocketing in after hours trading after this huge announcement.
IBM's stock is also jumping and I'm glad when I see things like this. It means hedge funds don't have all the news ahead of time. This is actually a huge news item. It means Apple is going after the business world with the most serious business partner it can get and it means IBM will do what it does best with the best consumer company out there as it launches a business strategy. None of the analysts I've seen on CNBC talking about Apple's stock price and targets saw this one coming.
@ljflx said:
IBM's stock is also jumping and I'm glad when I see things like this. It means hedge funds don't have all the news ahead of time. This is actually a huge news item. It means Apple is going after the business world with the most serious business partner it can get and it means IBM will do what it does best with the best consumer company out there as it launches a business strategy. None of the analysts I've seen on CNBC talking about Apple's stock price and targets saw this one coming.
Len, I wonder why AAPL was 1.13 lower today in the main session. I don't think anyone gave an explanation. Was it profit taking near the 52 week high or something? In any case, it more than made up for this loss in the after market trading. I have a feeling it will reach all time highs prior to the Earnings Report late Tuesday. It's possible that the stock will trade sharply higher tomorrow to about $99 or so due to this partnership with IBM. I think this is a huge deal that will help both companies.
It seems that just before a good earnings report aapl sinks for a couple of days, then may rebound after the report to about where it was, or lower. Not sure why, but that trend has happened more than a couple of times.
@carnaught said:
It seems that just before a good earnings report aapl sinks for a couple of days, then may rebound after the report to about where it was, or lower. Not sure why, but that trend has happened more than a couple of times.
It's disappointing the way AAPL has traded to this point today. After trading more than $2 higher early it is now barely higher. It's as if this partnership with IBM never took place. Oh well. The blowout earnings report will bring the stock to new all time highs. And, this IBM deal is huge in my opinion in spite of the market reaction today.
It's impossibkle to understand Wall Street at times. I viewed the IBM-Apple announcement as a big deal, totally unanticipated by Wall street analysts and with huge new market capabilities for both companies. A true win-win. I viewed Microsoft, Blackberry and possibly even Google as losers in the deal. The first two for obvious reasons and potentially Google because mobile is so much less relevant for their search engine and any apps IBM creates that fit mobile will likely make it even easier to bypass them. But then the street, after some euphoria after hours goes and makes Apple worth less a few days later than it was before the announcement. makes no sense whatsoever and can only be explained by either technical selling that tried to use the announcement as an offset to price pressure from such selling or someone having knowledge that would show this deal to be unfavorable economically to Apple. Since noone knew about this deal beforehand I have to believe its technical selling. This is a big threat to Microsoft's enterprise position so I'd have definitely thought they would sell off some.
I don't want to make this just an Apple forum again, but I will just say that the irrationality of Wall Street is beyond belief.
As far as the overall market is concerned, I am very bullish as I stated the other day. In spite of the Ukrainian/Russian/Israeli geo political problems, the market came roaring back today. I think the earnings reports from major companies will continue to be better for the most part than stupid analysts lead you to believe. Did I ever tell you that I can't stand most of these so called analysts? They should be outlawed.
Did I ever tell you that I can't stand most of these so called analysts? They should be outlawed.
Swiss investor Marc Faber, editor and publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” sees his role as matador to an overwrought bull market. Known as Dr. Doom for his perennially bearish outlook on the stock market, he is again predicting the Standard & Poor’s 500 is due for a 30% correction. Faber hasn’t been right in a long time though he lays claim to warning of the ’87 market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. He recently spoke by telephone with USA TODAY‘s Cameron Saucier. Here are his comments, edited for clarity and length:
If the S&P was trading at an outlandish multiple - say 25X earnings like it was in 1987 then I'd agree with him on a massive correction. But it's not trading at anything like that and interest rates are not going to rise much anytime soon because the Fed still wants to see a more bullish economy and a stronger more solid pick-up in real estate.. There's partly a bubble in everything due to how cheap it is to borrow but in most thiongs it's subtle. I'd say in stocks there's about a 2X multiple bubble tied in with the money factor. Maybe it's 3X. If that's the case then there's room for a 10-12% correction but IMO it's going to take something major, like an escalation of the Ukraine situation to set it off. The fundamentals look strong and earnings thus far have been pretty good. Some of these guys will say anything to get into the news and a lot of them talk only about the handful of times they were right and dismiss the huge number of times they were wrong. The moment I see that I think it's all about ego or that they made a bet on the market and are trying to influence it. I've got a very different view on this subject than Charlie. I don't hate analysts. They are trying hard to gather info from companies to accurately predict earnings and they do a lot of fact gathering on the supply chains of companies to do that checking. IMO most of them do a very good job. I hate people like Faber and Doug Cass and the like who make bets, then go public to try an influence stock trading toward those bets.
" I don't hate analysts. They are trying hard to gather info from companies to accurately predict earnings and they do a lot of fact gathering on the supply chains of companies to do that checking. IMO most of them do a very good job."
IMHO they TRY to do a good job. Given that most of them can't beat a monkey throwing darts, not sure I'd call that an actual good job.
I go more by analyst estimates. Most of the time they are within a few pennies of actual earnings. But I do agree that their future forecasts are bad and they are constantly adjusting them but then again companies give different data sometimes as quarters move along. So you'd expect adjustments.
"Some of these guys will say anything to get into the news and a lot of them talk only about the handful of times they were right and dismiss the huge number of times they were wrong."
Len, you are describing the Farmer's Almanac exactly.
On the analysts, I obviously do not think that they are all crooked. There are some genuinely good ones out there. For example, I very much respect Gene Muster. I'm not sure that he is a true analyst, but I also like John Forte at CNBC. They are humble good people. But, people like Doug Cass and Collin Gillis can go fly a kite as far as I'm concerned. Most of these guys just go with the flow, however. If the stock they are analyzing rallies they will raise their target and if it sells off they will lower it. Very few admit that they screwed up big time. There was one guy (last week I believe) who came on and admitted that he totally screwed up being bearish on Apple from back in the winter. I can't remember his name, but I think he works for Morgan Stanley.
Speaking Colin Gillis, here is his latest prediction on CNBC today. I don't know who is worst. Cass or Gillis? Btw, wham AAPL climbed back to $500 (pre split) after being in the dumps, Mr. Gillis said he does not see much more upside potential for Apple.
Wasn't Gillis the guy that said AAPL would crash because the carriers would be diminishing subsidies. He strikes me as a guy that tries to predict and then shape a stocks fall and he goes after the stocks that would give him the most publicity and the most notoriety. Everywhere today i am reading that Apple has ordered far more iPhones for the new launch of the 6 than it ever did before. It is anticipating massive demand and does not want to be caught with an under supply. I got my daughter a rental international phone for a trip to Italy, France and Spain - a People to People tour where they even stay at a family's home for a few days - and the guy at the Verizon store told me that people eligible for new phones every two years are passing on new phones and waiting to the 6 comes out. This has been going on for months. These are people with or without iPhones or even smart phones. He told me they are expecting long lines all over again and within the store employees are dreading the day the phone hits the market in September. The guy said they arre expecting it to be like Black friday, except that there's no sale and it'll go on and on and on.
This guy is just as negative as he can be on Apple. He doesn't note that the stock trades at a multiple that is 4x removed from the S&P, doesn't acknowledge that they've already bought back almost 100 million shares, thinks the future pipeline of products is already baked in and he completely minimizes the IBM deal. Instead he points out the smart phone market is growing 25% and Apple is not keeping up with that. Of course they aren't. Most of that growth is in the low end which is a money loser. They have no intention to go into that space. Of course if they did he'd be on CNBC saying they were diminishing their brand. When you are negative on something you only look for negatives. Now is he really an analyst here or someone who is trying to drive the stock down for a bigger handler who wants to short it.
I'm more trying to figure out what the market does to Apple and it's suppliers after the announcement. Does it rally and then sell off or does it rally and keep going. I sol;d my remaining stake in Twitter and put it in Apple yesterday. I've done well with twitter buying and selling it, never att the highs or lows but always in the right direction. But i originally bought it thinking it would be Wall Streets next darling. It hasn't been.
@ljflx said:
Everywhere today i am reading that Apple has ordered far more iPhones for the new launch of the 6 than it ever did before. It is anticipating massive demand and does not want to be caught with an under supply.
I think Apple and Samsung have brilliantly developed the best system of planned obsolescence ever concieved by man. There have always been tech junkies that had to have the latest and greatest. They were niche buyers of all things electronic. Now everyone has a smartphone, and are ready after a year to dump it for the next generation. It has replaced the personal computer for a very large percentage of the population. As long as they come up with a bigger, better, faster, smartphone, I see no end in sight. It will be interesting to see how well Microsoft does buying Nokia, once a leading cell phone maker.
@ljflx said:
This guy is just as negative as he can be on Apple. He doesn't note that the stock trades at a multiple that is 4x removed from the S&P, doesn't acknowledge that they've already bought back almost 100 million shares, thinks the future pipeline of products is already baked in and he completely minimizes the IBM deal. Instead he points out the smart phone market is growing 25% and Apple is not keeping up with that. Of course they aren't. Most of that growth is in the low end which is a money loser. They have no intention to go into that space. Of course if they did he'd be on CNBC saying they were diminishing their brand. When you are negative on something you only look for negatives. Now is he really an analyst here or someone who is trying to drive the stock down for a bigger handler who wants to short it.
I already said that I can't stand this guy. If I really stated what I think of the guy, I would be banned here. Why isn't CNBC critiquing him right to his face and telling him that he has been dead wrong about Apple?
Because he wasn't - at least with respect to stock price. It sold off to $388. I actually thought they were politely in his face on that interview. What I wish though is that when he said - Apple is not keeping up with the market growth - one of them would have retorted that Apple wants no part of the segment of the market that is growing like that as it's unprofitable or barely profitable. He's a wise [non-permissible content removed] know-it-all and he was wrong about the providers cutting the subsidies.
I never bought Amazon but if I did I'd have done it on momentum and got out just before any earnings release. Another wider than expected loss and a projected $810 million loss for the next quarter. I couldn't believe the jump in the stock on an announcement of drones delivery. Those things are going to be protested by almost everyone - from people with kids to the dangers they pose in airspace.. What amazes me is the prediction of such a large loss on a revenue spread of over $3bln projected in the next quarter. Tells me two things. They are cluel;ess on where the new phone is going and they can't make any money on incremental revenue.
@ljflx said:
I never bought Amazon but if I did I'd have done it on momentum and got out just before any earnings release. Another wider than expected loss and a projected $810 million loss for the next quarter. I couldn't believe the jump in the stock on an announcement of drones delivery. Those things are going to be protested by almost everyone - from people with kids to the dangers they pose in airspace.. What amazes me is the prediction of such a large loss on a revenue spread of over $3bln projected in the next quarter. Tells me two things. They are cluel;ess on where the new phone is going and they can't make any money on incremental revenue.
IF the market was rational (it's not), AMZN should plummet to $100 in a very short period of time.
I bought some more AAPL shares on the little dip today.
You can't just buy Apple. There are some great stocks that have a ways to go. Facebook, Baidu, even Yahoo as it may be gobbled up by Alibaba. Apple's solid but you're probably looking at a cap that's only 10-15% higher then its current price. Twitter could easily go back to $75. I may jump back into it.
You can't just buy Apple. There are some great stocks that have a ways to go. Facebook, Baidu, even Yahoo as it may be gobbled up by Alibaba. Apple's solid but you're probably looking at a cap that's only 10-15% higher then its current price. Twitter could easily go back to $75. I may jump back into it.
You are correct Len. I do own some other stocks but not enough. The broker and I were actually talking about buying some FB tomorrow.
You made a great move there Rob. I almost bought simply because Trump was on CNBC and said he bought at $19. A good stock is always going to get back to its IPO price. I think FB will double from here within 18 months. Twitter - I don't know. It may be more of a fad. Twitter to me is gambling But IMO a good earnings report will send it into the 50's. For that reason I'll probably buy a thousand shares. FB is investing for the long-term.
I bought 100 shares of amzn back on 4-15 at $308. Sold it all on 7-11 at about $346. I was kicking myself because it hit $360. around July 25th. Now I don't feel so bad. No plans to buy more.
I don't understand how Amazon gets away with comments like this:
**Amazon blamed the second quarter loss due to the large number of new investments it had made. On the earnings call, CFO Tom Szkutak said, "The increase in capital expenditures reflects additional investments in support of continued business growth consisting of additional capacity to support our fulfillment operations and investments in technology infrastructure including Amazon Web Services." **
Capital expenditures are a Balance Sheet item. Only the depreciation hits the P&L and that's when the expenditure is complete and functioning. In the case of Amazon's warehouse building that means when it is revenue producing. Warehouse are also depreciated, probably ove a 15-25 year period, maybe 30. So only a small fractional part of the investment gets expensed. How on earth do analysts not ask the obvious question. The development of the Fire Phone probably has components that will be depreciated over a very short period but also some of that technology will be passed on to future phones and hence be in the Balance Sheet for a long time. Bottom line is Amazon gives scant info about what it's doing because that's Bezos style and its worked its magic for a long time. But lately not much of what they do say, and they say very little, makes much sense.
"Bottom line is Amazon gives scant info about what it's doing because that's Bezos style and its worked its magic for a long time. But lately not much of what they do say, and they say very little, makes much sense."
The company has now fallen short of Wall Street’s earnings expectations in seven of the past nine quarters. Investors say they are concerned about not only Amazon spending every dollar that comes in the door but also the lack of disclosure about where it is being spent.
According to Thomson Reuters StarMine, Amazon’s shares carry an intrinsic worth of $36.37 – or about a tenth of its current price – making the stock one of the most overvalued names in its universe of more than 4,000 U.S. companies.
Comments
Good to hear from you, Len. Colts Neck will never be the same without you! But you won't miss the recent snowy winters we've been experiencing.
I'm going to check out Myrtle Beach and Sarasota area in FL so thanks for the tips. When I told my wife about the your post, she is excited, particularly about the low % of hurricane hits you mentioned. I also am drawn to the Destin area up north. I'm about 5 years behind you in a move.
Anyway, thanks for your post, enlightening as always and enjoy your Mercs!!
I'm all in on stocks as well and chuckle at Marc Faber's recent prediction of a 30% landslide. Not that it's impossible but he's predicted it's just around the corner for a few years now!
Guys, this is a permanent move but it's 2 years out. I just got back notice from my lawyer down there that the title on the property is as clean as anything he's ever seen so my due diilligence on the land is now complete. The builder has already had a pre-lim meeting with the town and is expecting full approval of the floorplans and construction in August and we are just awaiting an updated survey. By the time all the detailed archictectual work is done, not the design but the buildout architecture and permits etc are finalized we expect to start building in December and then it's likely to be 18 months to completion so I'm looking at summer 2016. One thing that's so much better for building in Florida is weather. You don't worry about a place that has 360 of 365 days as partly or mostly sunny and building in the heart of winter is best suited for workers. From a financial POV I'm banking on real estate prices to rise and they are starting to recover more and more quickly in Florida. I'm locking in future prices of that home at today's prices and intendoing to sell here at tomorrows prices. Down in the Sarasota area of Florida local builders are buying the land and starting to spec homes on the Gulf and on Sarasota Bay and they attract a lot of European buyers, who think buying here is more financially attractive than buying in Europe. We've bought on Casey Key which is about 30 minutes south of Sarasota and its very residential and has a Carribean island feel. There's a height restriction on building so you don't see tall condos or commercial hotels which is what gives the area a secluded island feel. I love Sarasota and St Armand's Circle which almost gives you a mini NYC feel in a tropical setting and the area restaurants are fantastic. Keys in Florida for anyone building are your outside lanai's, pool, balconies and building each bedroom as a suite with walk-in closet and full baths and perhaps most importan feature of all - an interior elevator especially if you build waterfront. Fireplaces are not important but you want at least 1 (multiple ones are not needed) and excessively big homes of 8-10K feet with theatre rooms are out. No one wants a home on the gulf or Sarasota Bay with a darkened room hiding water views any more. What is in are well thought out, bright and airy 3500-6000' homes with 10-12' ceilings. On the ocean and bay all new homes are mainly 3 story with the first level being an above ground basement and garage and then a second and third level for living. It's hard to get a wide gulf front lot without paying a super steep price. Mine has 100' of frontage so at most you can build a home with about 2800' of living space on the main floor and then a similar living space above it. If you get a lot that is wider than you can build a larger first floor and kill off the second floor. But personally in the area that I bought I much rather have the second floor which will have 3 bedrooms and a second great room. The master bedroom will be on the first living floor. That's because the front of my house will have a view of the harbor and the back is the gulf and a high view of each is priceless. We intend to turn one bedroom into a study but preserve it as a bedroom suite at the same time. Now my problem is waiting this whole thing out.
Finally from a financial standpoint the move from NJ or any high tax state to Florida is a great move. Florida subsidizes you acquisition because there are no state income taxes and their is no estate/inheritance tax. NJ has a 10% estate tax and an 8-10% top bracket tax on incomes. So take 10% of whatever your estate will be worth and deduct that from your purchase and that to me is your real out of pocket costs. Now depending on where you buy you may be paying higher real estate taxes. But vis a vis NJ at least I probably save 20-25K a year in state taxes.
Circle,
It's the Florida panhandle across to Corpus Christi that is the big hurricane threat in the gulf. Very few storms tend to move NE or east into the west coast of Florida because of the nature of storms to move north, NW or west with prevailing wind currents. Usually obes that move toward the west coasty of Florida are weak systems. The two recent ones that did move toward the west coast and were solid storms were Charley, which was a small but potent storm and Wilma, which I believe struck way south below Naples and ran thru the everglades. Wilma was unusual in that it stalled off of Cozumel as a cat 5 storm. See the photo in the link below which has Wilma's eye over the island. They were in sunshine almost all day as the hurricane raged all around them because it was moving at under 2 mph. Wilma then made a sharp turn and got caught up in a winter jet which enhanced its western flank as it drove it toward Florida and then across and into the Arlantic. The upper air winter like jet energized the storm sought of the way Sandy was energized in our area. Bottom line is that was a real unusual situation and not your usual tropical system as it was very late in the hurricane season. Now Myrtle is a different story. That is an area that can get blasted with late developing hurricanes that blow up just offshore in that gulf stream current. That's how Hugo wiped out Charleston. I'd have a lot more fear of hurricanes in South Carolina than I would in Sarasota and I'd have the greatest fear of them across the northern gulf from the Florida panhandle on west. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wilma_in_cozumel_island-109920_m.jpg
It is probably also smart to have the first level as basement and garage, just in case you ever do have high water...but you might need a garage elevator for your cars !
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
You'd probably be under mandatory evacuation on any of the barrier islands or gulf front lots if you had a situation in which a hurricane was coming in and that's really the only way you'd get bad flooding. Heavy rain doesn't do it - at least not on the gulf. In Florida I'll hold onto two cars, the S (via lease) and SL (I'm buying this one at lease end) and drop the SUV. The latter was a required car up here for snow plus just our needs. SL's are rare everywhere but not down there. You have to sit outside and eat at one of the restaurants on St Armand's Circle in Sarasota. Literally every second or third car that drives thru is a convertible. I could have rented a BMW convertible or a corvette at the airport if I wanted to. The only alternative I was thinking on cars is that I may want to buy or lease an S coupe. But they are not set up for leasing and the hard top convertible S coupe will be more than double the price of what I can buy out the SL for. Plus my SL has so few miles on it because it was impossible to drive it around here with all the snow we had last winter.. That's one car you don't want to drive on any ground that has ice or snow on it.
They are forcing the beach houses in NJ to get a "lift" or super high insurance rates
Space is used for storage and garage.
Here's an interesting article I found on the subject.
http://msbusiness.com/blog/2014/07/10/report-6-5m-u-s-homes-risk-storm-surge/
I cannot stand these analysts. They should be outlawed. For example, I haven't seen Doug Cass or Colin Gillis quoted on CNBC lately, in particular to badmouth Apple. This Doug Cass guy was more or less promoted as a God in 2012 since he was predicting that Apple would collapse. Apple did collapse as we know after September of 2012 but the problem was that Cass made that prediction in April of 2012 when AAPL was trading at about $600. How many followers of his could have withstood a $100 rally on the short side by mid September 2012?
And then we have Mr. Gillis. When Apple climbed back up to $500 earlier this spring, he was predicting that he did not see any more upside on AAPL. Great prediction, right? But CNBC does not talk about these jerks or hold them accountable when they are totally wrong.
Btw, I'm too lazy to look it up, but I believe I recall that I made a prediction about a year ago on this forum that the Dow would reach 17,000 in 2014. Maybe I'm off on the level so please don't crucify me if it is so.
I continue to be optimistic about the long term prospects of the stock market. I bet we reach 20,000 on the Dow within the next 12-18 months. A short term selloff of 5% or so is certainly possible and perhaps probable. They will eventually find an excuse to have a real correction. That Portugal one last week was a very stupid excuse in my opinion.
Finally, I hope Tony is ok health-wise and comes back here now that the forum seems to be coming back to life.
Yay! The forum has come back to life and it's not only to do with Apple.
Speaking of which, I'm loving how aapl is doing these days.
(Sorry
)
Financials look to rally next. Maybe its time to buy Goldman, Citi, Chase etc.
What's up with gold today? 3% drop...
These guys are all rock stars if they nail a prediction...just like hitting the $500MM Lottery. Keep predicting a 30% market decline until it happens.
Ever follow Joe Bastardi in weather. Every storm is going to be the worst ever according to him. He's already forecasting winters 5 years out. 30" snowstorms are a dime a dozen with him. But people will remember the one time he's right and forget the 99 times he's wrong.
I know it's a broken record on AAPL for some, but even a hard-core MSFT guy like me knows a winner when he sees it. The stores are still packed and the MSFT store is looks more like Abercrombie and Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters!
That analogy perfectly describes the Farmer's Almanac. People only remember the one time it turns out to be right and forget about the numerous times it is full of crap.
The gold selloff today is easy to explain in my opinion. Since the bank crisis in Portugal is easing, then gold is sinking. Speaking of gold, in my humble opinion, gold will trade below $1,000 within a year or so. I wouldn't go long that "junk" if you paid me in gold.
All the money will be going into the stock market for several years to come. Pardon my Greek, but screw gold.
I've been biting my tongue not to post anything about AAPL since people were getting sick of hearing about it, but I LOVE how Apple has been behaving this year. The hell with those idiot analysts. I expect another great earnings report next Tuesday afternoon.
Speaking of Apple, looks like they may not have to pay those outrageous wages to the Chinese workers much longer. It will all be done by robots that do not mind working day and night.
The worst kept secret of Apple and its Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn isn't their poor labor conditions. It isn't even the fact that they use robots to help bring together all the pieces that make up an iPhone. It's that their robots are now performing more and more human-like functions.
In the past, it's always been people that put the finishing touches on the popular devices. Well, that's all about to change.
Foxconn parent company Hon Hai is set to deploy an army of 10,000 assembly-line robots to help meet the demands of producing the highly anticipated iPhone 6. Hon Hai CEO Terry Gou revealed in a recent shareholder meeting that Apple would be the very first customer of Foxconn's latest robots.
http://theweek.com/article/index/264652/introducing-the-iphone-6-made-in-china-by-a-robot
Big Time news! I have posted very little about Apple here the past 6 months. However, this news is huge in my opinion. Apple is partnering with IBM to create apps and sell iPhones and iPads. Interestingly, AAPL closed 1.13 lower today for unknown reasons, but it's sky-rocketing in after hours trading after this huge announcement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-ibm-team-up-to-create-apps-sell-phones-2014-07-15?siteid=yhoof2
IBM's stock is also jumping and I'm glad when I see things like this. It means hedge funds don't have all the news ahead of time. This is actually a huge news item. It means Apple is going after the business world with the most serious business partner it can get and it means IBM will do what it does best with the best consumer company out there as it launches a business strategy. None of the analysts I've seen on CNBC talking about Apple's stock price and targets saw this one coming.
Len, I wonder why AAPL was 1.13 lower today in the main session. I don't think anyone gave an explanation. Was it profit taking near the 52 week high or something? In any case, it more than made up for this loss in the after market trading. I have a feeling it will reach all time highs prior to the Earnings Report late Tuesday. It's possible that the stock will trade sharply higher tomorrow to about $99 or so due to this partnership with IBM. I think this is a huge deal that will help both companies.
It seems that just before a good earnings report aapl sinks for a couple of days, then may rebound after the report to about where it was, or lower. Not sure why, but that trend has happened more than a couple of times.
It's disappointing the way AAPL has traded to this point today. After trading more than $2 higher early it is now barely higher. It's as if this partnership with IBM never took place. Oh well. The blowout earnings report will bring the stock to new all time highs. And, this IBM deal is huge in my opinion in spite of the market reaction today.
It's impossibkle to understand Wall Street at times. I viewed the IBM-Apple announcement as a big deal, totally unanticipated by Wall street analysts and with huge new market capabilities for both companies. A true win-win. I viewed Microsoft, Blackberry and possibly even Google as losers in the deal. The first two for obvious reasons and potentially Google because mobile is so much less relevant for their search engine and any apps IBM creates that fit mobile will likely make it even easier to bypass them. But then the street, after some euphoria after hours goes and makes Apple worth less a few days later than it was before the announcement. makes no sense whatsoever and can only be explained by either technical selling that tried to use the announcement as an offset to price pressure from such selling or someone having knowledge that would show this deal to be unfavorable economically to Apple. Since noone knew about this deal beforehand I have to believe its technical selling. This is a big threat to Microsoft's enterprise position so I'd have definitely thought they would sell off some.
I don't want to make this just an Apple forum again, but I will just say that the irrationality of Wall Street is beyond belief.
As far as the overall market is concerned, I am very bullish as I stated the other day. In spite of the Ukrainian/Russian/Israeli geo political problems, the market came roaring back today. I think the earnings reports from major companies will continue to be better for the most part than stupid analysts lead you to believe. Did I ever tell you that I can't stand most of these so called analysts?
They should be outlawed.
Swiss investor Marc Faber, editor and publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” sees his role as matador to an overwrought bull market. Known as Dr. Doom for his perennially bearish outlook on the stock market, he is again predicting the Standard & Poor’s 500 is due for a 30% correction. Faber hasn’t been right in a long time though he lays claim to warning of the ’87 market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. He recently spoke by telephone with USA TODAY‘s Cameron Saucier. Here are his comments, edited for clarity and length:
http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2014/07/20/marc-faber-is-sounding-warning-bell-again/
If the S&P was trading at an outlandish multiple - say 25X earnings like it was in 1987 then I'd agree with him on a massive correction. But it's not trading at anything like that and interest rates are not going to rise much anytime soon because the Fed still wants to see a more bullish economy and a stronger more solid pick-up in real estate.. There's partly a bubble in everything due to how cheap it is to borrow but in most thiongs it's subtle. I'd say in stocks there's about a 2X multiple bubble tied in with the money factor. Maybe it's 3X. If that's the case then there's room for a 10-12% correction but IMO it's going to take something major, like an escalation of the Ukraine situation to set it off. The fundamentals look strong and earnings thus far have been pretty good. Some of these guys will say anything to get into the news and a lot of them talk only about the handful of times they were right and dismiss the huge number of times they were wrong. The moment I see that I think it's all about ego or that they made a bet on the market and are trying to influence it. I've got a very different view on this subject than Charlie. I don't hate analysts. They are trying hard to gather info from companies to accurately predict earnings and they do a lot of fact gathering on the supply chains of companies to do that checking. IMO most of them do a very good job. I hate people like Faber and Doug Cass and the like who make bets, then go public to try an influence stock trading toward those bets.
" I don't hate analysts. They are trying hard to gather info from companies to accurately predict earnings and they do a lot of fact gathering on the supply chains of companies to do that checking. IMO most of them do a very good job."
IMHO they TRY to do a good job. Given that most of them can't beat a monkey throwing darts, not sure I'd call that an actual good job.
I go more by analyst estimates. Most of the time they are within a few pennies of actual earnings. But I do agree that their future forecasts are bad and they are constantly adjusting them but then again companies give different data sometimes as quarters move along. So you'd expect adjustments.
"Some of these guys will say anything to get into the news and a lot of them talk only about the handful of times they were right and dismiss the huge number of times they were wrong."
Len, you are describing the Farmer's Almanac exactly.
On the analysts, I obviously do not think that they are all crooked. There are some genuinely good ones out there. For example, I very much respect Gene Muster. I'm not sure that he is a true analyst, but I also like John Forte at CNBC. They are humble good people. But, people like Doug Cass and Collin Gillis can go fly a kite as far as I'm concerned. Most of these guys just go with the flow, however. If the stock they are analyzing rallies they will raise their target and if it sells off they will lower it. Very few admit that they screwed up big time. There was one guy (last week I believe) who came on and admitted that he totally screwed up being bearish on Apple from back in the winter. I can't remember his name, but I think he works for Morgan Stanley.
Speaking Colin Gillis, here is his latest prediction on CNBC today. I don't know who is worst. Cass or Gillis? Btw, wham AAPL climbed back to $500 (pre split) after being in the dumps, Mr. Gillis said he does not see much more upside potential for Apple.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101854065?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=101854065
Wasn't Gillis the guy that said AAPL would crash because the carriers would be diminishing subsidies. He strikes me as a guy that tries to predict and then shape a stocks fall and he goes after the stocks that would give him the most publicity and the most notoriety. Everywhere today i am reading that Apple has ordered far more iPhones for the new launch of the 6 than it ever did before. It is anticipating massive demand and does not want to be caught with an under supply. I got my daughter a rental international phone for a trip to Italy, France and Spain - a People to People tour where they even stay at a family's home for a few days - and the guy at the Verizon store told me that people eligible for new phones every two years are passing on new phones and waiting to the 6 comes out. This has been going on for months. These are people with or without iPhones or even smart phones. He told me they are expecting long lines all over again and within the store employees are dreading the day the phone hits the market in September. The guy said they arre expecting it to be like Black friday, except that there's no sale and it'll go on and on and on.
This guy is just as negative as he can be on Apple. He doesn't note that the stock trades at a multiple that is 4x removed from the S&P, doesn't acknowledge that they've already bought back almost 100 million shares, thinks the future pipeline of products is already baked in and he completely minimizes the IBM deal. Instead he points out the smart phone market is growing 25% and Apple is not keeping up with that. Of course they aren't. Most of that growth is in the low end which is a money loser. They have no intention to go into that space. Of course if they did he'd be on CNBC saying they were diminishing their brand. When you are negative on something you only look for negatives. Now is he really an analyst here or someone who is trying to drive the stock down for a bigger handler who wants to short it.
I'm more trying to figure out what the market does to Apple and it's suppliers after the announcement. Does it rally and then sell off or does it rally and keep going. I sol;d my remaining stake in Twitter and put it in Apple yesterday. I've done well with twitter buying and selling it, never att the highs or lows but always in the right direction. But i originally bought it thinking it would be Wall Streets next darling. It hasn't been.
Forgot to put the link in that last psot.
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/analyst-cautious-apple-214400162.html
I think Apple and Samsung have brilliantly developed the best system of planned obsolescence ever concieved by man. There have always been tech junkies that had to have the latest and greatest. They were niche buyers of all things electronic. Now everyone has a smartphone, and are ready after a year to dump it for the next generation. It has replaced the personal computer for a very large percentage of the population. As long as they come up with a bigger, better, faster, smartphone, I see no end in sight. It will be interesting to see how well Microsoft does buying Nokia, once a leading cell phone maker.
I already said that I can't stand this guy. If I really stated what I think of the guy, I would be banned here.
Why isn't CNBC critiquing him right to his face and telling him that he has been dead wrong about Apple?
Because he wasn't - at least with respect to stock price. It sold off to $388. I actually thought they were politely in his face on that interview. What I wish though is that when he said - Apple is not keeping up with the market growth - one of them would have retorted that Apple wants no part of the segment of the market that is growing like that as it's unprofitable or barely profitable. He's a wise [non-permissible content removed] know-it-all and he was wrong about the providers cutting the subsidies.
I never bought Amazon but if I did I'd have done it on momentum and got out just before any earnings release. Another wider than expected loss and a projected $810 million loss for the next quarter. I couldn't believe the jump in the stock on an announcement of drones delivery. Those things are going to be protested by almost everyone - from people with kids to the dangers they pose in airspace.. What amazes me is the prediction of such a large loss on a revenue spread of over $3bln projected in the next quarter. Tells me two things. They are cluel;ess on where the new phone is going and they can't make any money on incremental revenue.
IF the market was rational (it's not), AMZN should plummet to $100 in a very short period of time.
I bought some more AAPL shares on the little dip today.
Charlie,
You can't just buy Apple. There are some great stocks that have a ways to go. Facebook, Baidu, even Yahoo as it may be gobbled up by Alibaba. Apple's solid but you're probably looking at a cap that's only 10-15% higher then its current price. Twitter could easily go back to $75. I may jump back into it.
You are correct Len. I do own some other stocks but not enough. The broker and I were actually talking about buying some FB tomorrow.
Well, just to update, I did buy some FB this morning at 75.24.
Boy makes me feel really good. I've bought FB at an average of $20.46.
To be honest, I've been so busy working I didn't see the big spike yesterday.
"Boy makes me feel really good. I've bought FB at an average of $20.46.
To be honest, I've been so busy working I didn't see the big spike yesterday."
Hopefully, it's a case of better late than never for me.
I'm thinking that FB will reach 95-100 in the next 6-12 months.
You made a great move there Rob. I almost bought simply because Trump was on CNBC and said he bought at $19. A good stock is always going to get back to its IPO price. I think FB will double from here within 18 months. Twitter - I don't know. It may be more of a fad. Twitter to me is gambling But IMO a good earnings report will send it into the 50's. For that reason I'll probably buy a thousand shares. FB is investing for the long-term.
I bought 100 shares of amzn back on 4-15 at $308. Sold it all on 7-11 at about $346. I was kicking myself because it hit $360. around July 25th. Now I don't feel so bad. No plans to buy more.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I don't understand how Amazon gets away with comments like this:
**Amazon blamed the second quarter loss due to the large number of new investments it had made. On the earnings call, CFO Tom Szkutak said, "The increase in capital expenditures reflects additional investments in support of continued business growth consisting of additional capacity to support our fulfillment operations and investments in technology infrastructure including Amazon Web Services." **
Capital expenditures are a Balance Sheet item. Only the depreciation hits the P&L and that's when the expenditure is complete and functioning. In the case of Amazon's warehouse building that means when it is revenue producing. Warehouse are also depreciated, probably ove a 15-25 year period, maybe 30. So only a small fractional part of the investment gets expensed. How on earth do analysts not ask the obvious question. The development of the Fire Phone probably has components that will be depreciated over a very short period but also some of that technology will be passed on to future phones and hence be in the Balance Sheet for a long time. Bottom line is Amazon gives scant info about what it's doing because that's Bezos style and its worked its magic for a long time. But lately not much of what they do say, and they say very little, makes much sense.
"Bottom line is Amazon gives scant info about what it's doing because that's Bezos style and its worked its magic for a long time. But lately not much of what they do say, and they say very little, makes much sense."