You are quick to change your mind and have done so a number of times....The thing is a lot of people stick to their decisions , sometimes to their detriment...
Well... Tony... here's the deal on THAT. While it certainly can be said that I am quick to change my mind... and I agree with that 100%... I want you to consider this perspective.
TIMES CHANGE. SITUATIONS CHANGE. THEY ARE NOT STATIC. THEY ARE DYNAMIC. THEY ARE "FLUID" (a word that has become trendy at CNN lately).
So, I only change with what I see. When a few weeks goes by, or a few months, or even a few days or just hours, and suddenly I see that something has changed... then I believe it is important to not try to prove anything to anyone and not be stuck with a prior decision, and not be afraid of how it may look to others, or what others may say.
I have always been willing to change as the conditions change, and to admit when I made a mistake. I find that I personally get better results by paying attention, than by buying investments and then sitting back and just hoping that one day in the future they will be valuable.
I believe that if what we care about (such as our family, friendships, home, careeer and investments) is regularly nurtured and cared for, and attention is given and responsibility is taken as custodians... then we generally see healthier and better results.
Heck, I recall that it wasn't all that long ago when I was affected by the financial crisis, and that I had to completely change my lifestyle and my priorities and my business model. If I hadn't made those changes, I would have failed miserably, and let down those that were counting on me.
That's why I am willing to change my mind, as I see things change around me. I am not "stuck" with any stocks... and if I see that AAPL doesnt look good afterall... I will get out immediately. As of now, I am out of all other stocks, and I am sooooooo glad I got out of this market recently. I never just "stay the course" and only hope for the best. I can't do that.
The money I have NOT lost because I got out of the market recently is monumentally larger than what I might lose if I decide that I should pull the plug on AAPL. That would be small loss. I never even got close to my personal limit that I set for myself, so I actually don't own all that many shares in this latest round. In other words, I may not get EVERY single move correct on this recent market condition, but I will have made enough correct decisions to come out waaaaay on top.
Those that stayed in the market recently are bleeding, and for some reason, there is this mindset that is freakin' everywhere... that the brokers and investment houses have been drilling into everyones' heads for years... the notion that everyone should "stay the course", and don't sell. Well, that's BS, because the primary rule is to buy low and sell high. So, if the market is very high and starting to tank... I think the primary strategy in that situation ought to be "sell". Then, when the damage is done, I think the primary strategy would be to "buy". Even as recently as this week, Sandman's posted about the "wash rule". This is more of the same mindset that brokers should take everyone's investment money and we should have nothing to do with it thereafter.
I can't imagine coming home from the hospital with our newborn son, and then giving him to someone else to take care of. Hell no... that's MY responsibility. So, why on earth are so many folks totally in the dark on their own investments? Don't they matter? Why do they have excuses as to why they allow somebody they often barely even know have almost TOTAL responsibility for, and decision-making authority over their investments?
Anyway, that's enough of this rambling for now.
So, back to your point... Yes, I can be quick to change my mind... because the situation changes. And God knows, the situation changes very quickly, and dramatically, at times.
Your quick decision the the Lexus CT was probably a good one. If you like it that may have been your only shot at buying one for a good long time. With the mess in Japan it could be months before they start showing up at dealers. If the price of gas continues up the Dealers will be gouging the buyers big time. Just like the iPad2 in Hong Kong.
Talk about Change! The entire market seems 180 degrees different as it opens this Thursday morning.
HOW SWEET IT IS!
So... if we are now truly past the toilet flush performance of the past week, that would leave me looking perfectly positioned with AAPL... and very cash strong to jump back in a market that is considerably lower than when I got out.
I will not pull the trigger too fast. I have loads of breathing room here. I might move back in the market incrementally... but I will watch it carefully first.
This past week shows yet again why I am so "hands-on" with my investing, and that it works much better for me.
I can't wait to see how the next few days pan out.
I am sure that this morning's market open is a big sigh of relief for many here.
One error leads to another is my situation. As I stated a few days ago, my big error was that I did not sell my AAPL stock even though I had a feeling the market would tumble when the crap hit the fan in Japan. Well, that big error forced me to basically stay put (I did buy 10 shares at $340) instead of buying yesterday as you did. I did not want to transfer money into the account to buy. Well, I would now be in your happy camp if I had sold at the first sign of big trouble.
We are obviously not out of the woods yet with the crisis (especially the nuclear portion) in Japan but I do feel that most of the market collapse was due to knee jerk reaction (fear) by investors. I continue to think that our economy is in rather good shape and it will continue to slowly get better. AAPL will almost definitely go above $400 in the not too distant future. Their next earnings report will be awesome in spite of that downgrade to "perform" by those "morons" yesterday morning. I see that this morning Credit Suisse issued an "outperform". Take your pick by the so called experts. They all stink rotten. They know less than nothing. Having said this, I like this prediction much better than that crap that came out yesterday:
CREDIT SUISSE INITIATES COVERAGE OF APPLE (AAPL) WITH OUTPERFORMFont size: A | A | A undefined undefined | S&P Marketscope SNPMarketScopeViewsNews2011-03-17 10:05:44.000AAPLAPPLE INC.BARNETT BRODIECREDIT SUISSE INITIATES COVERAGE OF APPLE (AAPL) WITH OUTPERFORMAnalyst Kulbinder Garcha tells salesforce he concludes AAPL should be able to deliver outsized revenue/earnings growth of 50%/46% over the next 2 years, significantly ahead of consensus expectations (24% higher for FY 12), given a sustained competitive advantage in software, hardware, services/apps ecosystem. Notes iPhone is still the driver, while iPad-addressing a $120B market long term. Believes that a low-end iPhone, greater push into emerging markets, and enterprise traction could add $10 of EPS. Sets $500 target. B.Brodie|US;AAPL|29466|US|36276
I just sold all my AAPL shares!... for yet again another quick gain (albeit small this time). I did not want to lose this opportunity, given today's upside move for AAPL.
Now I am totally free of this market (as I take a deep breath). And I am in a position to make absolutely sure that the BS surrounding AAPL has cleared up. And, as well, I can take a new fresh look at the market, while standing on the sidelines in cash. (with exception of the fixed securities side of my total investment account, which I NEVER touch).
Unfortunately you are correct in your analysis imo,,,I say unfortunately because what has happened makes the- us-suspecting- so venerable to the people like Wells Fargo etc.....The industry is so geared up to- just commissions and fees- that imo the industry has lost it`s way as a repository of earned funds that eventually are needed to take the place of what a person earns as a productive citizen..
One nice thing that we can count on is the market doesn`t go down like a stone...It always has rallies that enable a person to `step back`and re-group....if they are so inclined ...Maybe this is just that moment.....Tony
Just looking at another lost opportunity. This was a new offering I believe this morning. It opened at $4.99 a share and is trading at over $50 per share. Now that was a money making tip for anyone that was lucky enough to get it.
I obviously do not have the flexibility that you enjoy because of your great decision to sell everything several days ago. But, I now have a sell stop on AAPL a few dollars below current levels. I don't want to go through the agony I went through yesterday when "the world was coming to an end".
I obviously do not have the flexibility that you enjoy because of your great decision to sell everything several days ago. But, I now have a sell stop on AAPL a few dollars below current levels. I don't want to go through the agony I went through yesterday when "the world was coming to an end".
Agony? No way! I suggest you eat a little more Greek food and strengthen yourself.
When you mention that you don't have the flexibility that I enjoy... are you suggesting that you can't make any changes to your situation that would acquire you more flexibility and/or control over your own financial decisions?
For example, couldn't you put a higher percentage of your equities portfolio into your e-trade account, or some other similar approach, which would allow you to make decisions without having to pay a serious penalty every time you want to be smart with your money?
When you mention that you don't have the flexibility that I enjoy... are you suggesting that you can't make any changes to your situation that would acquire you more flexibility and/or control over your own financial decisions?
I am specifically talking about the 2 E-Trade accounts that are very heavily weighted with AAPL. I have a good relationship with the stock broker in the other accounts and I don't want to ruin it. Those accounts are composed of many different stocks.
When I opened up the first "small" E-Trade account, I made a mental rule that I was NOT going to put any more money into it. I have been and will continue to stick to that rule. The lack of flexibility of flexibility came about from not selling AAPL earlier this week. All be be good if AAPL reaches into the $350's again. But at least now, I don't have to sweat it much even if I get stopped out. Is this called money management ?
I made a mental rule that I was NOT going to put any more money into it.
Understand. I would have done the same thing... AT FIRST.
In fact, I have certain limits that I have placed upon myself when I fly solo... so if I want to do something enormous, I can still do it without restrictions, but I must call my broker first and let him know what I am about to do. If he thinks what I am about to do is extremely unwise, he will offer his opinion and we can talk about it. He has, on occassion, changed my mind... sometimes for the better, and sometimes not... LOL. Usually, he just goes with it, because he knows me and my style. For example, when I recently got out of the market... I actually wanted to do it at an earlier point in time... but he wanted me to be more patient... so I waited a little longer, and when I saw that it wasn't a good idea to continue to wait , I called him and we pulled the trigger.
However, as you are now more familiar with the e-trade account, and how it works... frankly, you should be in a legitimate position to re-establish an updated mental rule for yourself. You could take a little more from the account that is under your broker's control, and transfer it to your e-trade account. You don't need to change your investment strategy, but you would have a larger capability to do what you want without checking with your broker every time... or you COULD check with him if you feel more comfortable.
Also, since you would keep a reasonable amount of investments with your broker, you could always get his advice and recommendations, but without paying him to make all of the subsequent trades, which you could make on your own through your e-trade account.
As a specific example, let's say you split his control in half (half is just an example... could be any fraction), and placed the other half in your e-trade account. Your commissions to him would then be HALF as much as they would have been otherwise, and then you could trade the other half through your e-trade account for a small transaction fee.
The result is that you still retain your broker at a significant level, and you gain more independent control as well. You could essentially "mirror" what your broker does with the money under his watch without paying those ridiculous commissions, and then you would also have more flexibility and independent control.
I am in no position to tell you what to do with your investments, but from the perspective of someone who is trying to offer a helpful perspective on your behalf, and as I believe I understand your situation as you have described, I am quite convinced that this would be a "win-win" for you AND your broker... and most importantly your bottom line... which is the whole point of investing. And, your relationship with your broker would be intact.
Final result:
More independence and control of your investments. Ability to make more flexible decisions, in real time. Broker (and any broker advise that you might want) is retained. Broker relationship is retained. Smaller commisisons and fees. Increased bottom line. Greater peace of mind.
What's the level of concern in California about the radiation?
Here in Southern California, the South Coast Air Quality Management District is closely monitoring the air for any signs of radiation. The air here is always regularly monitored, regardless of the Japanese situation.
There is absolutely ZERO impact to our air quality at this time with regards to the Japanese situation.
Here's a link to the website, and the video that is dated 3/16/11 gives a decent explanation for those that are curious.
Currently am using my Scottrade account to trade the 3 stocks that I own plus have some in my Fidelity account. Is E-trade a better way to go here? Just curious about this as I will finally be receiving my portion of a small trust within a couple of months. Just curious if I should move it to an E-Trade account. The new TE Bank is right up the street now.
Any help would be appreciated. Also, the wife wants me to look into some tax free muni bonds like she has in her portfolio. She was very lucky to inherit from her mom a nice portfolio where she has some tax free muni's. Personally would rather make the most $ on what I have coming down the road.
Help!
The Sandman :sick: :shades:
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
Is E-trade a better way to go here? Just curious about this as I will finally be receiving my portion of a small trust within a couple of months. Just curious if I should move it to an E-Trade account.
The 2 E-Trade accounts I have (opened 2-3 months ago) is my first experience in online stock trading. I really don't know much about what the competition has to offer. E-Trade is pretty simple. I did have an issue early on when it appeared that the limit order I placed prior to the opening of the market was not executed and it should have. But I had no problems since then.
Have had no problems with Scottrade ever but would change to a better online broker if there is one. Eventually when I get my AEE stock, 476 shares, I'll have it moved over to my Scottrade account or into my Fidelity account, as I plan to keep it for the long haul. Eventually, we'll need to find out the price on the day the broker bought it so my wife can figure out the gain/loss when doing our taxes if I do sell it. But at this point I'll keep it along with my 3 other stocks. The Sandman :sick: :shades:
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
Just from a fundamental prospective, with the purpose of keeping` sanity` in focus----a person has a time in life that `is` their productive phase....As that time does not last for their lifetime, it is important to live with in their means and set aside the extra dollars (in our case) for the time when they are not as productive.....Those funds should grow on their own and largely be bolstered with the excess funds...After a while the pool grows to a meaningful sum and eclipses the funds that are deposited as saved...
There is a reason that bonds (or their equivalent) are such a huge part of the equation ...and that stocks are the wild card.....A sound and prudent advisor would place a certain percentage of a persons savings into bonds and a larger percent into stocks depending on there place in their life, and is adjusted accordingly....Of course real-estate should have it`s proper place also, I`m just speaking of the liquid part..
As we all would like to be enriched as quickly as possible, it is easy to loose sight of how we got to the spot we are at this time...I would like to remind all that the rampant speculation going on really will eventually lead to losses over a period of time , simply because the government will take a nice slice of the gains, and permit no slice of the losses to be taken against income.....Fun to speculate , particularly when right, and usually a blind eye when the yearly dues are due..
I write the above with no one particularly in mind, and do so primarily to encourage those souls who have a longer term objective, and are actively pre suing their business careers.., to encourage them to continue to keep their eye on the end objective......Tony
I recall starting my Retirement Trust back in 1984. I did so at the recommendation of a business associate. I had only been in business for about 2 years.
The REAL money that is made should be through career WORK, IMO, and a portion of the gains made through that work should be contributed to a retirement account of some sort on a regular basis.
Within that account, a significant portion of the investment portfolio should be dedicated to FIXED securities. There should be no question about this. Period.
The rest can be invested in equities. Other legitimate considerations can be real-estate, commodities, collectibles, or other investment instruments.
But, NEVER screw around with the percentage of the portfolio that is dedicated to FIXED securities. Over the lifetime of a career worker, there can conceivably be enough left over at the end game, between the growth of the investment account, and the other assets that may have grown along the way, typically real estate or other miscellaneous savings accounts.
So, you are hitting a bulls-eye with your encouragement to those that are pursuing their careers... to keep their eyes on their objectives and NEVER put those objectives at any more risk than makes sense for their situation.
Investing has risks, but it should not be conducted in a way that makes it similar to gambling. A good investor takes chances, true, but does the homework... and then the odds are massively improved, but never a sure thing. Not even Apple is a sure thing. So often the biggest companies take a big hit at some point.
Luck aside (which cannot be relied upon), a solid investment strategy is the best long-term strategy... almost ALWAYS.
And, I always add the point that you shouldn't just turn your money over to someone that will never care about it as much as you do. You need to stay involved and stay responsible for your investments.
Investors can learn from the same words we tell our young ballplayers... "Keep your eye on the ball"!
Thanks Tony for your great post and your words of wisdom!!!!
IMO Scottrade is as good or better than e trade, but they are both perfectly fine. I like Scottrade because of their local offices, etc. and I don't know if e trade has local offices or not.
They just opened a new store within 5 minutes of our house so it's pretty convienent to get to. Think I'll just stay put for the time being! The Sandman :sick: :shades:
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
I suggest checking information on the factual oriented website Nuclear Energy Institute, nei.org
If you listen to the news media you are receiving hyped up information. Some of the "experts" they use in the past have been antinuclear activists but now are being declared as experts. The true levels of the radiation compared to everyday radiation beyond normal such as a coast-to-coast airplane flight are not given. The information sounds terrible. The idea of the plant having a meltdown has been made to sound much worse than it is, considering the design of the plants involved: they are not Chernobyl.
A good comparison would be with the amounts of radiation dosages received by Americans from the bomb tests in the 50s (and 60s).
"UPDATE AS OF 5:45 P.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:
NEI has uploaded three new videos to its YouTube channel. The first features Art Stall (Retired), President and Chief Nuclear Officer of NextEra Energy, discussing how the U.S. nuclear industry prepares for natural and man-made disasters. The second and third videos feature Jeff Merrifield, former NRC commissioner and senior vice president at The Shaw Group, discussing next steps for implementing lessons learned from Japan and confidence that construction of new U.S. nuclear plants should continue.
UPDATE AS OF 5:00 P.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:
It is unlikely that radiation released from the nuclear reactors in Japan will harm anyone in the United States, President Obama said in a press briefing this afternoon.
"We do not expect harmful levels of radiation to reach the United States, Hawaii, Alaska or U.S. territories in the Pacific," Obama said. He added that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "does not recommend that people in the U.S. take precautionary measures other than staying informed."
Obama said "our nuclear plants have undergone exhaustive study and have been declared safe for any number of contingencies." However, he said that when there is an event such as the Fukushima accident, "we should learn from that. That's why I have asked the NRC to do a comprehensive review of our nuclear plants" in light of the natural disaster that has happened in Japan.
In a briefing earlier on Thursday, Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said, "There can't be any harm to anyone in the United States" from the Japanese nuclear power plant.
Dan Poneman, the deputy secretary of energy, said today that two U.S. flights to Japan collected information on radiation levels. These readings informed the decision to recommend that Americans evacuate an area 50 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear energy facility.
Poneman expressed confidence in the safety of U.S. nuclear power plants, saying they're evaluated on a "minute by minute" basis. Taking safety precautions "goes back decades," he said. Tough safety standards have been in effect and upgraded since 1979, he said.
Status of Fukushima plants
In Japan, engineers have laid a power line that can connect reactor 2 of the Daiichi facility to the off-site power grid, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported. Workers are working to reconnect the power to reactor 2 after they complete spraying water into the reactor 3 complex to provide additional cooling to the used fuel pool. Reconnecting to the power grid is expected to enhance efforts to prevent further damage at the plant.
Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported on Thursday that the backup diesel generator for reactor 6 is working and supplying electricity to reactors 5 and 6. TEPCO is preparing to add water to the storage pools that house used nuclear fuel rods at those two reactors."
If you view the hype in the right light, there may be some money to be made in investments in the right industries to take advantage of the value scare due to the Japan crisis.
As you may have guessed I did get stopped out of my Apple stock yesterday at about $335. There is not much doubt that the problem right now is concern about parts from Japan. I am dying to buy AAPL again but I am not sure how long the supply problems will last. TM, I am relying on you to tell me when to jump in AAPL again . Is it this morning? From the sound of things, there will probably be some supply issues for a while. But we both agree this stock is going to the moon eventually. Here is the article:
Japan Quake Poses Supply Issues For Apple IPad 2 -IHS ISuppliFont size: A | A | A 5:30 PM ET 3/17/11 | Dow Jones By Steven Russolillo
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) newly unveiled iPad 2 may suffer from supply shortages in its electronic compass, the battery and possibly its touchscreen glass because of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a research firm said Thursday.
IHS iSuppli found at least five parts in the iPad 2 sourced from Japanese suppliers that could be impacted, including NAND flash memory chips from Toshiba Corp. (6502.TO), dynamic random access memory made by Elpida Memory Inc. (6665.TO), an electronic compass from AKM Semiconductor, the touchscreen overlay glass likely from Asahi Glass Co. (5201.TO) and the system battery from Apple Japan Inc, according to IHS iSuppli.
"While some of these suppliers reported that their facilities were undamaged, delivery of components from all of these companies is likely to be impacted at least to some degree by logistical issues now plaguing most Japanese industries in the quake zone," the research firm said.
Apple declined to comment Thursday on its supply chain. On Monday, the company said its Japanese facilities were open and functioning following the earthquake and tsunami.
Apple released the iPad 2 in the U.S. last week, and analysts estimated sales over the weekend ranged anywhere between 500,000 and 1 million units. Apple's online store is showing a shipping delay of a month or more for all new versions of the iPad 2.
Apple said earlier this week that it would delay the iPad 2's launch in Japan following the recent developments that have devastated the country. The company had planned to begin iPad 2 sales in Japan on March 25, alongside 25 other countries in various points around the globe.
IHS iSuppli said Japanese suppliers are facing difficulties with employees not being able to get to work because of issues with the transportation system as well as interruptions in the electricity supply. Semiconductor facilities that had suspended manufacturing activities following the earthquake can't get back up to full speed until the aftershocks come to an end, the firm said.
"Earthquakes ranging from 4 to 7 on the Richter scale will make it impossible to really restart these fabs until the earthquakes stop happening with such frequency," Dale Ford of IHS iSuppli said. "Every time a quake tops 5, the equipment automatically shuts down."
The temporary suspension of production at Toshiba's main NAND production facility has prompted speculation regarding Apple's supply of NAND flash. But IHS iSuppli said the NAND devices used in the iPad are available from alternative sources, including Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE) and Micron Technology Inc. (MU).
The firm said the compass and glass supply could be more problematic issues for Apple, especially if shipments are delayed because of the logistical issues following the earthquake.
Apple shares closed Thursday up 1.4% at $334.64.
Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said in a separate research note Thursday that key component makers for the iPad 2 as well as the iPhone 4 have temporarily shut down operations in Japan to assess damage.
"It appears no one has a good handle of the extent of damage and when production will resume," Munster said, adding that Apple could face temporary supply issues, but they shouldn't impact consumer demand, which remains strong.
-By Steven Russolillo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2180;
Well, I pulled the trigger and bought back all my AAPL shares and a few more this morning. At least this time I bought near the low (SO FAR) at $331. It is rather apparent that supply concerns is the major reason for the slide.
I have also gotten back in the market today, although I am holding more cash open for the next dip. So far, I pulled the trigger on about a half mil today. I have changed the weight of the various stocks I previously owned, since there are so many of them. Overall, I purchased the vast majority of them at better positions than when I sold, the exception being CAT, Berkshire, WFT, and another one I can't recall at this moment.
Of course I included AAPL... without a doubt.
I would have done a little better if I had gotten in yesterday, of course, but I feel damned good about this, at this point. We've got a weekend to get past, and who knows what might happen? Hopefully the Lybia situation will be "taken care of" soon, and that will help the market. And, of course, whatever happens with Japan's situation needs to have some more clarity (one way or another) and finality... regardless of the fact that the rebuilding will take a long time.
Essentially, most of the current problems have really tested the market's strength, which has truly impressed me... and most of the current problems will be downstream before too long... well, before a whole new set of new problems comes along to deal with. Unfortunately, too many market "bears" have come out of hybernation recently, and they are hungry, so there is probably going to be some more bleeding no matter what. And, the doomsdayers are always out there as well. But I believe the "bulls" will prevail.
Unfortunately, too many market "bears" have come out of hybernation recently, and they are hungry, so there is probably going to be some more bleeding no matter what. And, the doomsdayers are always out there as well. But I believe the "bulls" will prevail.
You're not kidding about "market bears and doomsdayers" coming out of hybernation. Have any of you heard that stinking commercial that is called "the end of America? Those SOB's that put that crap out make me sick to my stomach. And, when the market goes down they intensify their efforts and play it many times a day on CNBC, local radio stations, etc. They tell you to go to www.endofamerica13.com and watch a free video by this dippo (they call him a prophet) that has supposedly been incredibly accurate on past predictions. He is calling for the biggest event in over 50 years to affect America in 2011. I'm sure they get a lot of traffic on that site especially when the market collapses.
Absolutely correct. It's a shame that the media is hyping the nuclear aspect of this disaster so much, but really, I think most of us have grown to expect that type of behavior.
It is a shame that almost 100% of the real suffering was/is being caused by a combination of the quake and the tsunami. That is the real story here.
Apple goes down in spite of an up market? You indicated that you bought ALL of your shares back (and then some) at around $331. I recall you owned approximately $150,000 worth of AAPL, so you have definitely stepped up to the plate today.
I have a different scenario. I went in the market very diversified, investing $472,000 divided between 36 different stocks and 6 different funds. I bought $10K of most stocks and some at $15K, but I couldn't help myself when it came to AAPL... I bought $25K.
That said, $472K in a diversified portfolio including $25K in AAPL today is not even close to the level I was originally in the market (or AAPL) before all this mess happened. And it's not even close to your $150,000 level you are invested in AAPL.
So, my friend, we either made a damned good decision by buying on a down day, or else there is some more downside for AAPL coming our way. Now, if it does dip some more, I might increase my position gradually, which will give me a better average cost per share.
But, even though I love the stock and the company, I am clearly not addicted to it in any way... and I am going to be careful with AAPL.
I think the size of your AAPL purchase today was a gutsy and aggressive move, and I keep wondering if your purchase of so many AAPL shares went a little too far, too fast. Or perhaps, I'll end up wishing that I also invested huge in AAPL today. Oh well, one thing is for sure...when it comes to AAPL... YOU ARE THE MAN!
TM - I bought AAPL back only on the 2 E-Trade accounts. I did nothing the past several days with the broker accounts. But I still invested about $80K in AAPL this morning.
I don't think there is much doubt that the reason AAPL has been sliding recently is due to supply concerns from Japan. However, I'm sure Apple has all the bases covered and they will come out smelling like a rose. I have a good feeling about the market for next week. We'll see though. I wonder what Len thinks?
I think Len mentioned that he sold the vast majority of his equity investments. I haven't seen any post indicating that he has returned to the market, or if he intends to back in next week. I, too, would like to hear his perspective.
This is a tricky situation we find ourself in. Just how high should the market go when there is so much economic improvement that is still needed? Can the consumer really spend enough to keep the economy moving along? Corporate earnings seem to continue to be very good, and in some cases, out of this world.
But in spite of what seems to be decent earnings reports, and an improving economy... we are still dealing with high unemployment, a massive budget deficit, wreckless spending, insane tax policies, real-estate meltdown, threat of inflation, sources of energy and energy prices, international threats, unrest, and disasters, sky-high health care costs and health-care insurance premiums... and more... all these factors MUST be a part of the equation... they simply cannot be ignored.
Certainly all those factors make it difficult to really wrap our arms around the market because the market in some ways predicts what is ahead. So, with that in mind, let's consider what is ahead with all those factors at play. I think that is partly the reason the market might stumble along instead of explode. So, the mext step in that logic is to consider that the more those factors get resolved, the greater likelihood the market will surge.
Let's hope our Congress truly starts to tackle some of those factors... because if they do, I think the stock market will go to the moon. If not, we'll just go sideways for quite a while.
Can't wait to hear some detailed perspectives from Len.
In yesterdays NY Times there was a small story in their personal tech section entitled "the multifarious problems with iPad's challengers" based on a report from the market research firm Forrester. I could not find the link to it in the Times on-line but came across a blog that reported some of the same things and linked it below. In the NY times story they reported that Forrester research showed that consumers were looking for a microsoft windows version of a tablet as their alternative to Apple but that is a year away. The NY Times story also alluded to the things in this blog about retail store strategy (and how they d'ont want to buy a tablet at a wireless phone store), product differentiation and pricing. Forrester expects the iPad and iPad2 to control 80% of the market in 2011. In the blog below they note that Amazon is the biggest fear but it also notes Microsoft. Personally I d'ont see Amazon working unless they team up with Microsoft. If the retail channel is so important why would anyone want to buy the Amazon way. I'd rather buy it from a wireless store. Now Microsoft introduces a whole set of disruptive problems in the future because people are so Microsoft trained via the PC. That LT training and familiarlarity will overcome a lot of the shortfalls anticipated by Forrester of the current competition.
Note that the light blue words in the blog link you to further reading.
I think Len mentioned that he sold the vast majority of his equity investments. I haven't seen any post indicating that he has returned to the market, or if he intends to back in next week. I, too, would like to hear his perspective.
I only did that with pre-tax money that I had in mutuals, which is actually where most of my investments are anyway. I came right back in but not all the way once the fears eased over Japan. As of this morning I am 50-50 and as of Monday I'll be 65-35. The overall fed policy is so bullish for stocks that it is hard to stay out of the market. I did not do anything with individual stocks and after Tags comments about Wells Fargo I am almost wondering if analysts are trying to take Apple low for major buys by their firms. My average cost in Apple is still quite low and except for the time I was out between $128 and $160 I've been in the stock since it was at $84 so its been a great ride. I also bought at $302 when the Jobs health story took the stock down. I think this is a sure bet $450, probably $500 stock a year from now. So I d'ont let these jogs bother me. I have $250K in Apple.
I will say that a Microsoft challenger to the iPad would scare me somewhat as I can see people running to it blindly. Microsoft is the sleeping tech giant and I think folks better watch out for that company coming alive again. I agree with Tag that the XBOX is a powerhouse asset.
Len - It's very encouraging to hear that you are pretty much staying the course. It is especially encouraging to hear your views on AAPL. I totally agree and hopefully we will reap the rewards when AAPL reaches $450-500. At least in my situation, I say "hopefully" in case I do something stupid and bail out during a sell-off. I MUST be patient with this stock. As TM says, I should buy more if there is a sizable sell-off.
A great article in today's NY Times re Wall street and the Japanese quake/nuclear crisis and catastrophe's in general. Note Larry Kudlow's senseless remark early in the story.
A very well done article `indeed`.....The only real experience I have had with this --first hand--is Hurricane Hugo....It seemed to me at the time to be just devastation galore, and I wondered how I could dig out....It turned out to be one of the biggest `booms` for Charleston....The money just poured in, the banks prospered , and the city was re-built, and modernized....I have observed that now when something happens, it is an employment boom, as very few people do for themselves....Most `flee` and the insurance makes things right....particularly the cleanup....Makes me wonder about the `values` today....Tony
Len - That is an awesome, informative article. Thanks for sharing.
I still have a feeling that this week will be much better for the market as I think the market will like the action taken in Libya and also, it looks like the nuclear crisis in Japan is stabilizing.
Re your Apple purchases. This past year's share value increases are impressive to be sure. But they also came at a time that Apple has introduced a number of new technology goodies. They really flooded us and didn't give the competition a chance to catch a breath. Great strategy to ensure consistent growth and keep the focus off of Job's illness. The prognosis for his type of cancer is not very forgiving though and within this next year, his family and friends will, in all probability, have to deal with losing him.
I think a certain level of caution should be exercised though during this next year if thinking of investing much more with them at this point because in order to see another 150 to 200 dollar increase, they would have to keep pumping out new and improved at the same rate. In light of a number of world events this past year-plus, present and anticipated, I'm skeptical that this can be done.
Is it pancreatic cancer? My older brother has it + it spread to his liver, heard the other day his is terminal. Not sure what Steve has though. The Sandman :sick: :shades:
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
One thing you're overlooking is that Apple is still penetrating the market/world with existing product and in the case of the IPAD has very little competition. As well, the greater the sales volume grows the more profitable each succeeding unit sale is as fixed costs were absorbed at a certain threshold point. The iPad is also penetrating the corporate world, which I d'ont think anyone would have initially expected. Never underestimate the legs of a popular product especially in a rapidly growing market in which a company is expected to have an 80% marketshare.
Yes, I believe it is. They can install stints but all they can do really is prolong the inevitable. We lost our mother to pancreatic cancer. Very unforgiving and painful disease.
Very sorry to here about your brother. I hope I have not said too much, but I expect they have long ago prepared you as best they could.
Don't be...we have been estranged for many years & I was told by a cousin...did text him get well wishes but never heard back. But hey...life goes on and so will Apple once Steve is no longer around! The Sandman :sick: :shades:
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
(I had a comment about catastrophes having the potential to ultimately spur growth but it seems potentially disrespectful to those whom are suffering right now). I am not a wealthy man, but I sent some financial assistance to Japan and hope most of us did.
I still think we should have a healthy respect for market instability for the next goodness knows how long. In a number of ways, we are navigating previously unchartered waters.
I still have a feeling that this week will be much better for the market as I think the market will like the action taken in Libya and also, it looks like the nuclear crisis in Japan is stabilizing.
I feel the same way Charlie, as long as the Japanese situation continues to ease and nothing gets out of hand in Libya. Futures up about half a percent across the board as I write this.
The market is telling us that basically, it does not make a "hill of beans" difference. I really don't know if it's bearish, bullish, or neutral. As Bill Belichick often says, "it is what it is" .
My provider has been T-Mobile for years now. This is why I could not get the iPhone. From the story I read this morning, I still cannot get it for perhaps up to a year.
I'm glad to see AAPL is back in the saddle, but AAPL isn't the only stock doing well this morning. Many stocks in the market (and in my portfolio, which I care more about) are performing in the same range or even doing much better than AAPL. Heck, as I look at my portfolio now, I see that even Microsoft and Google are up around the same percentage as AAPL today. And some of the others I own such as HUWHY, QCOM, CSCO, GE, BIDU, UPS, CAT, VZ, and VOD, for example are easily at a par with AAPL and some of them are performing much better than AAPL.
I only say this because it's important to keep in perspective that this is not an Apple event, and when the market has downward pressure at some point down the road, we will get a better feel for the strength of Apple's stock... not on a day like today.
BTW, I see a wonderful sea of green as I look at my stocks today, and the one red I see is AMT... which is getting spanked, supposedly due to the AT&T purchase of T-Mobile. AMT was recently upgraded only days ago, and I don't see the damaging logic or connection here on this one... my guess is AMT will bounce back and this could be a very good buying opportunity if done so carefully. I have always liked this stock (AMT).
I also own shares of AT&T... so should be interesting what happens, if anything.
I only say this because it's important to keep in perspective that this is not an Apple event, and when the market has downward pressure at some point down the road, we will get a better feel for the strength of Apple's stock... not on a day like today.
Indeed! This is a strong day for the entire market and I am happy to say it is going according to my expectations for this week. I am also of the opinion that one of these days soon, AAPL will greatly outperform the market.
I am happy to say it is going according to my expectations for this week. I am also of the opinion that one of these days soon, AAPL will greatly outperform the market.
We certainly agree on that! That was my expectation as well, clearly indicated when I poured about a half mil back into the market at the end of last week.
As far as Apple GREATLY outperforming the market ONE OF THESE DAYS SOON... I certainly hope so, but that remains to be seen... and please give me some clarity on what you consider "greatly outperform". I personally expect it to perform better than the market in general, and I love your optimism, but please do clarify what you mean here.
Comments
Well... Tony... here's the deal on THAT. While it certainly can be said that I am quick to change my mind... and I agree with that 100%... I want you to consider this perspective.
TIMES CHANGE. SITUATIONS CHANGE. THEY ARE NOT STATIC. THEY ARE DYNAMIC. THEY ARE "FLUID" (a word that has become trendy at CNN lately).
So, I only change with what I see. When a few weeks goes by, or a few months, or even a few days or just hours, and suddenly I see that something has changed... then I believe it is important to not try to prove anything to anyone and not be stuck with a prior decision, and not be afraid of how it may look to others, or what others may say.
I have always been willing to change as the conditions change, and to admit when I made a mistake. I find that I personally get better results by paying attention, than by buying investments and then sitting back and just hoping that one day in the future they will be valuable.
I believe that if what we care about (such as our family, friendships, home, careeer and investments) is regularly nurtured and cared for, and attention is given and responsibility is taken as custodians... then we generally see healthier and better results.
Heck, I recall that it wasn't all that long ago when I was affected by the financial crisis, and that I had to completely change my lifestyle and my priorities and my business model. If I hadn't made those changes, I would have failed miserably, and let down those that were counting on me.
That's why I am willing to change my mind, as I see things change around me. I am not "stuck" with any stocks... and if I see that AAPL doesnt look good afterall... I will get out immediately. As of now, I am out of all other stocks, and I am sooooooo glad I got out of this market recently. I never just "stay the course" and only hope for the best. I can't do that.
The money I have NOT lost because I got out of the market recently is monumentally larger than what I might lose if I decide that I should pull the plug on AAPL. That would be small loss. I never even got close to my personal limit that I set for myself, so I actually don't own all that many shares in this latest round. In other words, I may not get EVERY single move correct on this recent market condition, but I will have made enough correct decisions to come out waaaaay on top.
Those that stayed in the market recently are bleeding, and for some reason, there is this mindset that is freakin' everywhere... that the brokers and investment houses have been drilling into everyones' heads for years... the notion that everyone should "stay the course", and don't sell. Well, that's BS, because the primary rule is to buy low and sell high. So, if the market is very high and starting to tank... I think the primary strategy in that situation ought to be "sell". Then, when the damage is done, I think the primary strategy would be to "buy". Even as recently as this week, Sandman's posted about the "wash rule". This is more of the same mindset that brokers should take everyone's investment money and we should have nothing to do with it thereafter.
I can't imagine coming home from the hospital with our newborn son, and then giving him to someone else to take care of. Hell no... that's MY responsibility. So, why on earth are so many folks totally in the dark on their own investments? Don't they matter? Why do they have excuses as to why they allow somebody they often barely even know have almost TOTAL responsibility for, and decision-making authority over their investments?
Anyway, that's enough of this rambling for now.
So, back to your point... Yes, I can be quick to change my mind... because the situation changes. And God knows, the situation changes very quickly, and dramatically, at times.
TM
HOW SWEET IT IS!
So... if we are now truly past the toilet flush performance of the past week, that would leave me looking perfectly positioned with AAPL... and very cash strong to jump back in a market that is considerably lower than when I got out.
I will not pull the trigger too fast. I have loads of breathing room here. I might move back in the market incrementally... but I will watch it carefully first.
This past week shows yet again why I am so "hands-on" with my investing, and that it works much better for me.
I can't wait to see how the next few days pan out.
I am sure that this morning's market open is a big sigh of relief for many here.
TM
Haha.
TM
We are obviously not out of the woods yet with the crisis (especially the nuclear portion) in Japan but I do feel that most of the market collapse was due to knee jerk reaction (fear) by investors. I continue to think that our economy is in rather good shape and it will continue to slowly get better. AAPL will almost definitely go above $400 in the not too distant future. Their next earnings report will be awesome in spite of that downgrade to "perform" by those "morons" yesterday morning. I see that this morning Credit Suisse issued an "outperform". Take your pick by the so called experts. They all stink rotten. They know less than nothing. Having said this, I like this prediction much better than that crap that came out yesterday:
CREDIT SUISSE INITIATES COVERAGE OF APPLE (AAPL) WITH OUTPERFORMFont size: A | A | A
undefined undefined | S&P Marketscope
SNPMarketScopeViewsNews2011-03-17 10:05:44.000AAPLAPPLE INC.BARNETT BRODIECREDIT SUISSE INITIATES COVERAGE OF APPLE (AAPL) WITH OUTPERFORMAnalyst Kulbinder Garcha tells salesforce he concludes AAPL should be able to deliver outsized revenue/earnings growth of 50%/46% over the next 2 years, significantly ahead of consensus expectations (24% higher for FY 12), given a sustained competitive advantage in software, hardware, services/apps ecosystem. Notes iPhone is still the driver, while iPad-addressing a $120B market long term. Believes that a low-end iPhone, greater push into emerging markets, and enterprise traction could add $10 of EPS. Sets $500 target. B.Brodie|US;AAPL|29466|US|36276
I just sold all my AAPL shares!... for yet again another quick gain (albeit small this time). I did not want to lose this opportunity, given today's upside move for AAPL.
Now I am totally free of this market (as I take a deep breath). And I am in a position to make absolutely sure that the BS surrounding AAPL has cleared up. And, as well, I can take a new fresh look at the market, while standing on the sidelines in cash. (with exception of the fixed securities side of my total investment account, which I NEVER touch).
So... I watch and wait.
TM
Unfortunately you are correct in your analysis imo,,,I say unfortunately because what has happened makes the- us-suspecting- so venerable to the people like Wells Fargo etc.....The industry is so geared up to- just commissions and fees- that imo the industry has lost it`s way as a repository of earned funds that eventually are needed to take the place of what a person earns as a productive citizen..
One nice thing that we can count on is the market doesn`t go down like a stone...It always has rallies that enable a person to `step back`and re-group....if they are so inclined ...Maybe this is just that moment.....Tony
Agony? No way! I suggest you eat a little more Greek food and strengthen yourself.
When you mention that you don't have the flexibility that I enjoy... are you suggesting that you can't make any changes to your situation that would acquire you more flexibility and/or control over your own financial decisions?
For example, couldn't you put a higher percentage of your equities portfolio into your e-trade account, or some other similar approach, which would allow you to make decisions without having to pay a serious penalty every time you want to be smart with your money?
TM
I am specifically talking about the 2 E-Trade accounts that are very heavily weighted with AAPL. I have a good relationship with the stock broker in the other accounts and I don't want to ruin it. Those accounts are composed of many different stocks.
When I opened up the first "small" E-Trade account, I made a mental rule that I was NOT going to put any more money into it. I have been and will continue to stick to that rule. The lack of flexibility of flexibility came about from not selling AAPL earlier this week. All be be good if AAPL reaches into the $350's again. But at least now, I don't have to sweat it much even if I get stopped out. Is this called money management
Understand. I would have done the same thing... AT FIRST.
In fact, I have certain limits that I have placed upon myself when I fly solo... so if I want to do something enormous, I can still do it without restrictions, but I must call my broker first and let him know what I am about to do. If he thinks what I am about to do is extremely unwise, he will offer his opinion and we can talk about it. He has, on occassion, changed my mind... sometimes for the better, and sometimes not... LOL. Usually, he just goes with it, because he knows me and my style. For example, when I recently got out of the market... I actually wanted to do it at an earlier point in time... but he wanted me to be more patient... so I waited a little longer, and when I saw that it wasn't a good idea to continue to wait , I called him and we pulled the trigger.
However, as you are now more familiar with the e-trade account, and how it works... frankly, you should be in a legitimate position to re-establish an updated mental rule for yourself. You could take a little more from the account that is under your broker's control, and transfer it to your e-trade account. You don't need to change your investment strategy, but you would have a larger capability to do what you want without checking with your broker every time... or you COULD check with him if you feel more comfortable.
Also, since you would keep a reasonable amount of investments with your broker, you could always get his advice and recommendations, but without paying him to make all of the subsequent trades, which you could make on your own through your e-trade account.
As a specific example, let's say you split his control in half (half is just an example... could be any fraction), and placed the other half in your e-trade account. Your commissions to him would then be HALF as much as they would have been otherwise, and then you could trade the other half through your e-trade account for a small transaction fee.
The result is that you still retain your broker at a significant level, and you gain more independent control as well. You could essentially "mirror" what your broker does with the money under his watch without paying those ridiculous commissions, and then you would also have more flexibility and independent control.
I am in no position to tell you what to do with your investments, but from the perspective of someone who is trying to offer a helpful perspective on your behalf, and as I believe I understand your situation as you have described, I am quite convinced that this would be a "win-win" for you AND your broker... and most importantly your bottom line... which is the whole point of investing. And, your relationship with your broker would be intact.
Final result:
More independence and control of your investments.
Ability to make more flexible decisions, in real time.
Broker (and any broker advise that you might want) is retained.
Broker relationship is retained.
Smaller commisisons and fees.
Increased bottom line.
Greater peace of mind.
TM
Here in Southern California, the South Coast Air Quality Management District is closely monitoring the air for any signs of radiation. The air here is always regularly monitored, regardless of the Japanese situation.
There is absolutely ZERO impact to our air quality at this time with regards to the Japanese situation.
Here's a link to the website, and the video that is dated 3/16/11 gives a decent explanation for those that are curious.
link title
TM
Any help would be appreciated. Also, the wife wants me to look into some tax free muni bonds like she has in her portfolio. She was very lucky to inherit from her mom a nice portfolio where she has some tax free muni's. Personally would rather make the most $ on what I have coming down the road.
Help!
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
The 2 E-Trade accounts I have (opened 2-3 months ago) is my first experience in online stock trading. I really don't know much about what the competition has to offer. E-Trade is pretty simple. I did have an issue early on when it appeared that the limit order I placed prior to the opening of the market was not executed and it should have. But I had no problems since then.
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
There is a reason that bonds (or their equivalent) are such a huge part of the equation ...and that stocks are the wild card.....A sound and prudent advisor would place a certain percentage of a persons savings into bonds and a larger percent into stocks depending on there place in their life, and is adjusted accordingly....Of course real-estate should have it`s proper place also, I`m just speaking of the liquid part..
As we all would like to be enriched as quickly as possible, it is easy to loose sight of how we got to the spot we are at this time...I would like to remind all that the rampant speculation going on really will eventually lead to losses over a period of time , simply because the government will take a nice slice of the gains, and permit no slice of the losses to be taken against income.....Fun to speculate , particularly when right, and usually a blind eye when the yearly dues are due..
I write the above with no one particularly in mind, and do so primarily to encourage those souls who have a longer term objective, and are actively pre suing their business careers.., to encourage them to continue to keep their eye on the end objective......Tony
I recall starting my Retirement Trust back in 1984. I did so at the recommendation of a business associate. I had only been in business for about 2 years.
The REAL money that is made should be through career WORK, IMO, and a portion of the gains made through that work should be contributed to a retirement account of some sort on a regular basis.
Within that account, a significant portion of the investment portfolio should be dedicated to FIXED securities. There should be no question about this. Period.
The rest can be invested in equities. Other legitimate considerations can be real-estate, commodities, collectibles, or other investment instruments.
But, NEVER screw around with the percentage of the portfolio that is dedicated to FIXED securities. Over the lifetime of a career worker, there can conceivably be enough left over at the end game, between the growth of the investment account, and the other assets that may have grown along the way, typically real estate or other miscellaneous savings accounts.
So, you are hitting a bulls-eye with your encouragement to those that are pursuing their careers... to keep their eyes on their objectives and NEVER put those objectives at any more risk than makes sense for their situation.
Investing has risks, but it should not be conducted in a way that makes it similar to gambling. A good investor takes chances, true, but does the homework... and then the odds are massively improved, but never a sure thing. Not even Apple is a sure thing. So often the biggest companies take a big hit at some point.
Luck aside (which cannot be relied upon), a solid investment strategy is the best long-term strategy... almost ALWAYS.
And, I always add the point that you shouldn't just turn your money over to someone that will never care about it as much as you do. You need to stay involved and stay responsible for your investments.
Investors can learn from the same words we tell our young ballplayers... "Keep your eye on the ball"!
Thanks Tony for your great post and your words of wisdom!!!!
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
If you listen to the news media you are receiving hyped up information. Some of the "experts" they use in the past have been antinuclear activists but now are being declared as experts. The true levels of the radiation compared to everyday radiation beyond normal such as a coast-to-coast airplane flight are not given. The information sounds terrible. The idea of the plant having a meltdown has been made to sound much worse than it is, considering the design of the plants involved: they are not Chernobyl.
A good comparison would be with the amounts of radiation dosages received by Americans from the bomb tests in the 50s (and 60s).
"UPDATE AS OF 5:45 P.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:
NEI has uploaded three new videos to its YouTube channel. The first features Art Stall (Retired), President and Chief Nuclear Officer of NextEra Energy, discussing how the U.S. nuclear industry prepares for natural and man-made disasters. The second and third videos feature Jeff Merrifield, former NRC commissioner and senior vice president at The Shaw Group, discussing next steps for implementing lessons learned from Japan and confidence that construction of new U.S. nuclear plants should continue.
UPDATE AS OF 5:00 P.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:
It is unlikely that radiation released from the nuclear reactors in Japan will harm anyone in the United States, President Obama said in a press briefing this afternoon.
"We do not expect harmful levels of radiation to reach the United States, Hawaii, Alaska or U.S. territories in the Pacific," Obama said. He added that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "does not recommend that people in the U.S. take precautionary measures other than staying informed."
Obama said "our nuclear plants have undergone exhaustive study and have been declared safe for any number of contingencies." However, he said that when there is an event such as the Fukushima accident, "we should learn from that. That's why I have asked the NRC to do a comprehensive review of our nuclear plants" in light of the natural disaster that has happened in Japan.
In a briefing earlier on Thursday, Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said, "There can't be any harm to anyone in the United States" from the Japanese nuclear power plant.
Dan Poneman, the deputy secretary of energy, said today that two U.S. flights to Japan collected information on radiation levels. These readings informed the decision to recommend that Americans evacuate an area 50 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear energy facility.
Poneman expressed confidence in the safety of U.S. nuclear power plants, saying they're evaluated on a "minute by minute" basis. Taking safety precautions "goes back decades," he said. Tough safety standards have been in effect and upgraded since 1979, he said.
Status of Fukushima plants
In Japan, engineers have laid a power line that can connect reactor 2 of the Daiichi facility to the off-site power grid, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported. Workers are working to reconnect the power to reactor 2 after they complete spraying water into the reactor 3 complex to provide additional cooling to the used fuel pool. Reconnecting to the power grid is expected to enhance efforts to prevent further damage at the plant.
Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported on Thursday that the backup diesel generator for reactor 6 is working and supplying electricity to reactors 5 and 6. TEPCO is preparing to add water to the storage pools that house used nuclear fuel rods at those two reactors."
If you view the hype in the right light, there may be some money to be made in investments in the right industries to take advantage of the value scare due to the Japan crisis.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Japan Quake Poses Supply Issues For Apple IPad 2 -IHS ISuppliFont size: A | A | A
5:30 PM ET 3/17/11 | Dow Jones
By Steven Russolillo
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) newly unveiled iPad 2 may suffer from supply shortages in its electronic compass, the battery and possibly its touchscreen glass because of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a research firm said Thursday.
IHS iSuppli found at least five parts in the iPad 2 sourced from Japanese suppliers that could be impacted, including NAND flash memory chips from Toshiba Corp. (6502.TO), dynamic random access memory made by Elpida Memory Inc. (6665.TO), an electronic compass from AKM Semiconductor, the touchscreen overlay glass likely from Asahi Glass Co. (5201.TO) and the system battery from Apple Japan Inc, according to IHS iSuppli.
"While some of these suppliers reported that their facilities were undamaged, delivery of components from all of these companies is likely to be impacted at least to some degree by logistical issues now plaguing most Japanese industries in the quake zone," the research firm said.
Apple declined to comment Thursday on its supply chain. On Monday, the company said its Japanese facilities were open and functioning following the earthquake and tsunami.
Apple released the iPad 2 in the U.S. last week, and analysts estimated sales over the weekend ranged anywhere between 500,000 and 1 million units. Apple's online store is showing a shipping delay of a month or more for all new versions of the iPad 2.
Apple said earlier this week that it would delay the iPad 2's launch in Japan following the recent developments that have devastated the country. The company had planned to begin iPad 2 sales in Japan on March 25, alongside 25 other countries in various points around the globe.
IHS iSuppli said Japanese suppliers are facing difficulties with employees not being able to get to work because of issues with the transportation system as well as interruptions in the electricity supply. Semiconductor facilities that had suspended manufacturing activities following the earthquake can't get back up to full speed until the aftershocks come to an end, the firm said.
"Earthquakes ranging from 4 to 7 on the Richter scale will make it impossible to really restart these fabs until the earthquakes stop happening with such frequency," Dale Ford of IHS iSuppli said. "Every time a quake tops 5, the equipment automatically shuts down."
The temporary suspension of production at Toshiba's main NAND production facility has prompted speculation regarding Apple's supply of NAND flash. But IHS iSuppli said the NAND devices used in the iPad are available from alternative sources, including Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE) and Micron Technology Inc. (MU).
The firm said the compass and glass supply could be more problematic issues for Apple, especially if shipments are delayed because of the logistical issues following the earthquake.
Apple shares closed Thursday up 1.4% at $334.64.
Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said in a separate research note Thursday that key component makers for the iPad 2 as well as the iPhone 4 have temporarily shut down operations in Japan to assess damage.
"It appears no one has a good handle of the extent of damage and when production will resume," Munster said, adding that Apple could face temporary supply issues, but they shouldn't impact consumer demand, which remains strong.
-By Steven Russolillo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2180;
I have also gotten back in the market today, although I am holding more cash open for the next dip. So far, I pulled the trigger on about a half mil today. I have changed the weight of the various stocks I previously owned, since there are so many of them. Overall, I purchased the vast majority of them at better positions than when I sold, the exception being CAT, Berkshire, WFT, and another one I can't recall at this moment.
Of course I included AAPL... without a doubt.
I would have done a little better if I had gotten in yesterday, of course, but I feel damned good about this, at this point. We've got a weekend to get past, and who knows what might happen? Hopefully the Lybia situation will be "taken care of" soon, and that will help the market. And, of course, whatever happens with Japan's situation needs to have some more clarity (one way or another) and finality... regardless of the fact that the rebuilding will take a long time.
Essentially, most of the current problems have really tested the market's strength, which has truly impressed me... and most of the current problems will be downstream before too long... well, before a whole new set of new problems comes along to deal with. Unfortunately, too many market "bears" have come out of hybernation recently, and they are hungry, so there is probably going to be some more bleeding no matter what. And, the doomsdayers are always out there as well. But I believe the "bulls" will prevail.
Congratulations on your AAPL decision.
TM
You're not kidding about "market bears and doomsdayers" coming out of hybernation. Have any of you heard that stinking commercial that is called "the end of America? Those SOB's that put that crap out make me sick to my stomach. And, when the market goes down they intensify their efforts and play it many times a day on CNBC, local radio stations, etc. They tell you to go to www.endofamerica13.com and watch a free video by this dippo (they call him a prophet) that has supposedly been incredibly accurate on past predictions. He is calling for the biggest event in over 50 years to affect America in 2011. I'm sure they get a lot of traffic on that site especially when the market collapses.
It is a shame that almost 100% of the real suffering was/is being caused by a combination of the quake and the tsunami. That is the real story here.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Apple goes down in spite of an up market? You indicated that you bought ALL of your shares back (and then some) at around $331. I recall you owned approximately $150,000 worth of AAPL, so you have definitely stepped up to the plate today.
I have a different scenario. I went in the market very diversified, investing $472,000 divided between 36 different stocks and 6 different funds. I bought $10K of most stocks and some at $15K, but I couldn't help myself when it came to AAPL... I bought $25K.
That said, $472K in a diversified portfolio including $25K in AAPL today is not even close to the level I was originally in the market (or AAPL) before all this mess happened. And it's not even close to your $150,000 level you are invested in AAPL.
So, my friend, we either made a damned good decision by buying on a down day, or else there is some more downside for AAPL coming our way. Now, if it does dip some more, I might increase my position gradually, which will give me a better average cost per share.
But, even though I love the stock and the company, I am clearly not addicted to it in any way... and I am going to be careful with AAPL.
I think the size of your AAPL purchase today was a gutsy and aggressive move, and I keep wondering if your purchase of so many AAPL shares went a little too far, too fast. Or perhaps, I'll end up wishing that I also invested huge in AAPL today. Oh well, one thing is for sure...when it comes to AAPL... YOU ARE THE MAN!
Very Best to You Charlie...
TM
I don't think there is much doubt that the reason AAPL has been sliding recently is due to supply concerns from Japan. However, I'm sure Apple has all the bases covered and they will come out smelling like a rose. I have a good feeling about the market for next week. We'll see though. I wonder what Len thinks?
This is a tricky situation we find ourself in. Just how high should the market go when there is so much economic improvement that is still needed? Can the consumer really spend enough to keep the economy moving along? Corporate earnings seem to continue to be very good, and in some cases, out of this world.
But in spite of what seems to be decent earnings reports, and an improving economy... we are still dealing with high unemployment, a massive budget deficit, wreckless spending, insane tax policies, real-estate meltdown, threat of inflation, sources of energy and energy prices, international threats, unrest, and disasters, sky-high health care costs and health-care insurance premiums... and more... all these factors MUST be a part of the equation... they simply cannot be ignored.
Certainly all those factors make it difficult to really wrap our arms around the market because the market in some ways predicts what is ahead. So, with that in mind, let's consider what is ahead with all those factors at play. I think that is partly the reason the market might stumble along instead of explode. So, the mext step in that logic is to consider that the more those factors get resolved, the greater likelihood the market will surge.
Let's hope our Congress truly starts to tackle some of those factors... because if they do, I think the stock market will go to the moon. If not, we'll just go sideways for quite a while.
Can't wait to hear some detailed perspectives from Len.
TM
Note that the light blue words in the blog link you to further reading.
http://blogs.forrester.com/sarah_rotman_epps/11-03-10-why_ipad_2_wont_have_much_- - - - - - competition_in_2011_unless_its_from_amazon
I only did that with pre-tax money that I had in mutuals, which is actually where most of my investments are anyway. I came right back in but not all the way once the fears eased over Japan. As of this morning I am 50-50 and as of Monday I'll be 65-35. The overall fed policy is so bullish for stocks that it is hard to stay out of the market. I did not do anything with individual stocks and after Tags comments about Wells Fargo I am almost wondering if analysts are trying to take Apple low for major buys by their firms. My average cost in Apple is still quite low and except for the time I was out between $128 and $160 I've been in the stock since it was at $84 so its been a great ride. I also bought at $302 when the Jobs health story took the stock down. I think this is a sure bet $450, probably $500 stock a year from now. So I d'ont let these jogs bother me. I have $250K in Apple.
I will say that a Microsoft challenger to the iPad would scare me somewhat as I can see people running to it blindly. Microsoft is the sleeping tech giant and I think folks better watch out for that company coming alive again. I agree with Tag that the XBOX is a powerhouse asset.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/business/20risk.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=A%20crisis%- - - 20the%20market%20cant&st=cse
I still have a feeling that this week will be much better for the market as I think the market will like the action taken in Libya and also, it looks like the nuclear crisis in Japan is stabilizing.
Re your Apple purchases. This past year's share value increases are impressive to be sure. But they also came at a time that Apple has introduced a number of new technology goodies. They really flooded us and didn't give the competition a chance to catch a breath. Great strategy to ensure consistent growth and keep the focus off of Job's illness. The prognosis for his type of cancer is not very forgiving though and within this next year, his family and friends will, in all probability, have to deal with losing him.
I think a certain level of caution should be exercised though during this next year if thinking of investing much more with them at this point because in order to see another 150 to 200 dollar increase, they would have to keep pumping out new and improved at the same rate. In light of a number of world events this past year-plus, present and anticipated, I'm skeptical that this can be done.
Sam
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
Very sorry to here about your brother. I hope I have not said too much, but I expect they have long ago prepared you as best they could.
Sam
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
(I had a comment about catastrophes having the potential to ultimately spur growth but it seems potentially disrespectful to those whom are suffering right now). I am not a wealthy man, but I sent some financial assistance to Japan and hope most of us did.
I still think we should have a healthy respect for market instability for the next goodness knows how long. In a number of ways, we are navigating previously unchartered waters.
Sam
I feel the same way Charlie, as long as the Japanese situation continues to ease and nothing gets out of hand in Libya. Futures up about half a percent across the board as I write this.
Please, hush, hush about AAPL
I only say this because it's important to keep in perspective that this is not an Apple event, and when the market has downward pressure at some point down the road, we will get a better feel for the strength of Apple's stock... not on a day like today.
BTW, I see a wonderful sea of green as I look at my stocks today, and the one red I see is AMT... which is getting spanked, supposedly due to the AT&T purchase of T-Mobile. AMT was recently upgraded only days ago, and I don't see the damaging logic or connection here on this one... my guess is AMT will bounce back and this could be a very good buying opportunity if done so carefully. I have always liked this stock (AMT).
I also own shares of AT&T... so should be interesting what happens, if anything.
TM
Indeed! This is a strong day for the entire market and I am happy to say it is going according to my expectations for this week. I am also of the opinion that one of these days soon, AAPL will greatly outperform the market.
We certainly agree on that! That was my expectation as well, clearly indicated when I poured about a half mil back into the market at the end of last week.
As far as Apple GREATLY outperforming the market ONE OF THESE DAYS SOON... I certainly hope so, but that remains to be seen... and please give me some clarity on what you consider "greatly outperform". I personally expect it to perform better than the market in general, and I love your optimism, but please do clarify what you mean here.
Thanks Charlie...
TM