I think that when you take a fixed dollar amount of a stock, that is fixed cost averaging...I could be wrong. but the old way for a person to accumulate money was to save it and say invest a fixed amount of `dollars` on a monthly or quarterly basis...That way you got a varying number of shares each go around, assuming the stock changed price.......Tony
If you buy a predetermined dollar amount of stock on some sort of interval basis as you suggested, you "dollar-cost average". That's how I understand it, and when I've spoken to others, that's how they discuss it as well. I am certain you are suggesting the same thing.
Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is increasing the likelihood that consumers will buy multiple devices. A central drive for Apple will be the free iCloud service, which will automatically share contacts, calendars, messages, photos, apps and music purchased on iTunes.
Going even further, Apple has made it easier for users to cut the cord to their PC. The new iOS 5 mobile operating system will make it possible for users to operate their iPhone or iPad without tethering to a computer and syncing with iTunes.
Apple's decision to make iCloud free will eliminate about 0.3 percent of Apple's revenue in 2011, Munster believes. By his calculations, that number will be easily offset by higher sales of devices.
Munster's overweight rating on AAPL stock and $554 price target also do not take into account pricing on Lion, so in his view the low $29.99 cost of the Mac OS upgrade will not have an impact on his numbers. He also noted that users who make the upgrade to Lion will be more likely to stick with the Mac platform.
TM, I've been at meetings the past 3-4 hours. What announcement are you talking abou? I see that in the after hours market, AAPL is still doing diddly.
What I really am suggesting is that your trading skills `possibly` could be improved by trying the age old formula in a more modern adaptation....That could be used on a daily basis as you enter and exit a position....May not be for you, but you might think it through....As an example if your entry purchase were to be inhibited, then if the issue were to decline you would have an opportunity to either peruse the formula or abandon ship...If the latter , the loss would be smaller....Just a thought Tony PS It seems to me that the news media are really over reacting to the economy....It is very active and reasonably strong everywhere I go, and the cost of fuel is not nearly being complained about as in the past....
Charlie... Read OW's post. I was driving along and it was reported almost verbatim. It was reported as though it had just happened in real time. So, I stopped my car, because it was close to the market close... and I looked at the AAPL news on my phone's web browser and saw there was a recent and identical news report... so, I bought an additional 100 shares shortly before the bell. I liked the report and I posted my purchase here... that's all I know.
I don't mind the extra hundred shares of AAPL In the long run. Also, I liked the action on SONY (SNE) today.
Thank you Tony! The talking heads hype everything! You are right. But, let's not act like everything's just fine... cause we are far from that.
The market is a definite challenge. Heck, we've got a psyscho economy and sometimes half the market trades are computerized... It's not even human any more.
OK, I had read that but I was not sure whether or not that was new or all this had been rehashed by AAPL a couple days ago. When it comes to all this iCloud/iTunes/iBS, I am rather lost. I do like the news, however. I know that when I purchased my iPad last year, I was rather ticked off that I had to sync it to my computer to make it work. This will make it much easier and overall, it will lead to more sales.
Having said this, I do not think the big boys are at all excited yet. I know the after market trading can be misleading, but if the dudes thought this news was significant, I believe, AAPL would have been trading considerably higher. We'll see what the morning brings. I still hope to start buying below $330, but I may pull the trigger on a small amount.
Charlie... the stock (AAPL) is taking a breather, and this will be the time to accumulate or hold. It's not a strong buy, and it's not a strong sell at this price and at this time. Apple is going through some changes. It needs to move to the next step, and present to the world what that will look like.
I am convinced that the next operating system, OS X Lion will be very important to Apple because, as I wrote about in the past, it makes the user experience more familiar to those that are already accustomed to iOS.
Think about it... it makes so much sense to be able to go from an iPhone to an iPad to a MacBook Pro to an iMac and be able to synchronize everything and access everything and to have a similar user experience. This cross/device similarity and open access essentially joins all the Apple products to work together in harmony, and thus makes them all more desireable, from an ownership perspective.
And, with Apple working to make sure that it has the ability to offer a comprehensive and thorough media selection to its customers, and doing so at a competitive price, I am convinced that Apple is heading in the right direction.
Its not just about fancy and cool-looking hardware. It's about what that innovative hardware can do... and it is obvious to me that Apple recognizes this. With Apple, customers will get BOTH... innovative, sexy products as well as an unmatched rich user experience... all at a competitive price. There is no way anyone else will beat that combination, IMO.
Investors will see this when it actually happens... which isn't far off. They are not going to just gobble up shares of Apple without something tangible... which WILL come over a relatively short period of time. It's what investors EXPECT from Apple.
Newer products are in the pipeline. There will be stiff competition, but that just makes Apple move ahead faster... and that's a good thing.
So, we now have a stock that has pulled back a little during a general market correction. Big deal. It won't last long. The whole world is going to continue to gobble up Apple products, and the desire for Apple products and services will increase. So far, it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Be patient. This fall/winter is going to be awesome.
In the meantime, if investors let the price slide, consider it a gift... and buy on any significant dips (or dollar-cost-average) because your profit margin will be even better down the road.
I just purchased 25 more shares of AAPL at $327.56.
When Apple's share price drops significantly, I will continue to buy small amounts in order to continue lowering my average overall cost on the investment. Therefore, when it finally starts making gains in the future, I will be in a better position.
The vast majority of my portfolio is totally in cash... waiting for the correction to end. The exception is the small number of fixed equities that I have held for many years, and of course, the recent purchase of 225 shares of AAPL, which now has an average cost per share of $331.31... and 1000 shares of SNE. That's it! Nothing else.
The correction continues. When it ends... and it will... we will all be able to buy equities for a MUCH better price than they were. That's a good thing, not a bad thing. All we have to do it wait.
I bought 50 shares in a rush after the opening at $330.50. I had a doctor's appointment and I was running late. I did not look at anything before the purchase although I had a feeling it would go lower. Now I'm contemplating buing a little more.
There is a strong possibility that the $326-$327 price/share range for AAPL could be a technical bottom. If the share price holds here, we would see mostly upside from here (although not necessarily immediately). If this share price doesn't hold a bottom, then we might want to wait for the next technical bottom before buying more, and I don't know what that would look like yet.
As a result... I have purchased more during the day (in addition to my last posted purchase)... so far... as follows...
EDIT: Today's negative market has wiped out my SONY (SNE) gains from yesterday... I am essentially flat on the stock at this point. I'll hang on for a while and see what happens. This stock was soooo hammered recently, that's why I bought it... I can't resist the upside potential... but in this kind of market it's hard to expect much of anything to go up significantly.
EDIT 2: Buying AAPL shares as the market closes... will fill in the details in a few minutes.
EDIT 3: Sold all SONY (SNE) shares.
Bought more AAPL shares... will indicate today's summary in the next post
TOTAL 365 shares @ $329.58 AVERAGE share price= $120,296.97 TOTAL AAPL INVESTMENT
As you can see, I am moderately yet significantly invested, but I am not considering investing at the lofty levels of earlier this year. There's still a LOT of risk to this very dangerous and complicated market, and there could still be some painful downside ahead.
Moving forward... I do not intend to accumulate more AAPL shares unless they take a very significant dip, in which case I might consider buying more to improve the average share price. Otherwise, it's sit and wait until Fall/Winter.
If, however, the U.S. economy enters another meltdown, and the market starts to totally collapse (while possible, that seems less likely), then I would bail out and take the short-term loss, and wait for a bottom after the meltdown... then start buying all over again.
Think about it... it makes so much sense to be able to go from an iPhone to an iPad to a MacBook Pro to an iMac and be able to synchronize everything and access everything and to have a similar user experience. This cross/device similarity and open access essentially joins all the Apple products to work together in harmony, and thus makes them all more desireable, from an ownership perspective.
This is why I said in a post a while ago that Apple is a subscription model under the surface. Albeit a rapidly growing one.
First time I'm down on an Apple share purhase. I keep thinking fundamentals have to limit losses here but it's not happening. Other than my $160 shares I now have a block at $304 and a block at $332.60.
This correction is not a real sell-off. It's volume is low so we have a lack of buyer conviction. How much of that is job and economic stats, how much Obama possibly adding more stimulus in a re-election hope I d'ont know. We had to correct but I thought it would be a sell-off not this. So I thnk we are nearing bottom and the market has to realize that strong earnings are ruling but they come at the cost of job growth.
I didn't buy any more following my purchases at $327 this morning. I was very busy with more meetings this afternoon and it's probably a good thing the way the market closed. I will probably be able to buy at lower prices come Monday morning.
I am driving all day tomorrow to Akron, OH to visit my daughter and her family that moved to Akron from Belleville, MI a bit over a month ago (about the time a broke my wrist). I'll be listening to a lot of Sirius/XM on the trip. I'm really looking forward to the trip. I'll be posting from Akron next week.
On the LS what type of mileage do you get on long trips? On mine I'll get 27-28 and on my GL I'll even get 20-21. My sons car does best in city. He's actually averaging 36.1 now. It keeps improving with miles driven. On my old LS I hit slightly better numbers but this car is weighted down by the AWD and it's most notable in local driving.
On the LS what type of mileage do you get on long trips? On mine I'll get 27-28 and on my GL I'll even get 20-21.
I'm just about ready to hit the road. Depending on weather conditions which makes a big difference, I average about 28-29 on the highway. With a tailwind and temperatures in the 50s-70s, I can get as high as 33-34. The AWD that you have is more than worth the hassle of snow tires in winter. I look forward to the day when I don't have to deal with this issue.
My 06 LS has averaged over 30 on trips between KC and St. Louis. I typically average 22-23 on mixed city/highway. I am amazed that a v-8 can get that type of mileage.
Well, obviously my Lexus CT200h has all of you beat.
At the worst, I get 36 -37 mpg, which is driving the car in Sport Mode, and mashing the gas pedal all the time. BTW, I do this all too often.
But, with minimum effort, in ECO Mode, I can get into the 40's. I hit over 50 once, just seeing if it could be done, but I don't like driving like that.
Overall, the CT gets two - three times the gas mileage of most other cars, especially in city driving... and therefore cuts the price of gas into half or even a third.
But, it's no big lux cruiser, which comes at a price.
I know the CT makes a lot of sense so my wife and I took a look at them. When we actually saw one at the dealership it was just too small looking for our taste.
She only drives about 5,000 miles a year so the LX is not killing us on gas. I know it is wasteful and I feel a little guilty, but On the other hand I know she is in a big safe vehicle that she is happy and familiar with. Plus, like most women, she has no conscience. Just kidding !
In the KC area Lexus is very short on inventory. Plenty of RX's, since they are made in Canada, but anything coming from Japan is almost non existent because of all the problems there.
Well, I made it to Akron with no major problems. I did get delayed about 40 minutes in stop and go traffic on I-80 west of Chicago near Joliet due to construction. I stopped for ga only once about 40 miles into Ohio. I got a very impressive 29.2 mpg. I did not have the AC on much of the trip sine it was so pleasant (60's to low 70's) outside. But it did get rather warm (near 80 in OH) and I turned on the AC the last couple hundred miles. The wind was from the northwest (not exactly a tailwind) so it did not help much at all. If it were not for the stop and go traffic near Joliet, I think I would have averaged 30 mpg. In any case, the LS460L gets amazing gas mileage for such a heavy vehicle.
As an interesting tidbit, if you happen to be driving on the Indian Turnpike (I-80), try to avoid getting gas in Indiana. Exxon-mobil was charging about $4.40 per gallon for 89 octane (amazing rip-off). I had plenty of gas left after filling up at home in Des Moines and I decided to get gas in OH. At the first service station, about 40 miles into OH, I stopped to get gas at a Valero station. Instead of $4.40, it was $3.90 here. Btw, back home in Des Moines, it goes for $3.48 for 89 octane (10% ethanol).
The drive was very enjoyable. I even listened to my beloved Red Sox in the afternoon as they pounded the Blue Jays 16 to 4. After starting out at 2 and 10, they are now 38 and 26 and they have the best record in the American League, if not all of baseball. I'm sure Laurasdada loves it.
Are the rest of you catching bits and pieces of the news as you navigate through your weekend activites? Every time I turn on the news, or any financial programs, or read a quick article, I am overwhelmed with just how negative everything regarding our economy has gotten over these past 6 weeks.
I am not surprised that the outlook has been negative, but the LEVEL of negativity is astonishing.
It's as if we are not living in the same world any more.
Much of the news claims that Obama's economic policies have failed. If it is true that Obama's financial plans (if he ever really had any) have failed... then what's next for stocks?
Wouldn't a failed recovery invalidate a significant portion of the stock market's gains of the past three years, since those gains were predicated upon the success of the recovery?
And, if much of those gains are invalid... then how far would the market need to fall to give us a "reality check"? What if the market only gave up half of it's 3-year gains? If so, the Dow would go to 10,400 and AAPL shares would go to $225.
Wow. This is uncharted territory all over again. Dangerous territory.
I'll tell you what I have lost faith in...the people reporting the news... be it financial, political or anything else.
Up until a couple of days ago everything was rosy in the financial world. A couple of bad days in the market and suddenly we are in a depression?
I don't think the majority of these people are anywhere near as well informed as the people here on this board. Most of them just echo what someone else has said...and the guy they are echoing is just saying what someone told him to say. Ridiculous I say.
I am just going to do what I have always done and use what little common sense that I have to figure out how to handle my investments.
In the meantime don't be surprised if we see a nice rally next week !!
It almost seems like the media wants Obama out, maybe Hillary in?
The economy is not that bad. It's growing, corporations are super-efficient right now because of high unemployment and I think businessmen are waiting to see how the election will shape up. Four more years of Obama is a scary thing as he may unleash his tax policies in a lame duck administration and really kill this economy. I wouldn't even want to think about what happens with jobs and housing if Obama tries to raise taxes to cover his wreckless spending.
Re the market - if the economy just sustains itself as is, corporate profits should grow so it's hard to see much more downfall. Overall multiples are not that high right now to bring about a large fall. Apple at $225 would be at such a low multiple management could buy it back. We'd need a systemic failure in banking to bring about a major fall IMO.
I think the media essentially just hypes and spins the current situation whatever that might be.
One of the points I was trying to make in my post was that the level of hype and the level of of consensus is unusual and alarming.
Many of those typically bullish talking heads have suddenly been bearish... some very bearish. Even the typically bullish Cramer, for example, has been quite negative regarding the current investment climate. It's hard to find anyone that has a positive perspective on the stock market.
Again, it's the LEVEL of negative consensus that has me concerned.
I think the typically liberal media has finally conceaded that Obama's economic policies appear to have failed... or at a minimum, they have not delivered the jobs, nor helped the housing crisis. Further, we all seem to be heading towards a global economic slowdown, as well as a domestic slowdown, and that could put a damper on those amazing increases in corporate earnings, which were largely responsible for the stock market advance.
Now that so much seems in jeopardy, as much of the latest data tends to indicate a worsening situation, it makes some sense that the market would retreat.
That all said, I would venture to say that if... IF, IF... we get a significant piece of positive financial data or a positive economic report, then I think the market could reverse itself, and rally in a HUGE way. The problem is that the data or report would have to be impressive enough to overcome the recent pile of poor indicators.
BTW, for those that are interested, I am fairly certain that Apple is going to significantly update the MacBook Air models very soon... possibly as soon as this Wednesday. They will getting the newer, more powerful Intel (Sandy Bridge, i5 or i7) processors, as well as possible other improvements such as Thunderbolt and other feature enhancements. Will this be enough to lift the stock? I think it depends partly upon the overall market condition on the day they make the announcement. Also, it would be helpful if Apple has something else up its sleeve to announce at the same time, or soon thereafter, which would be a great reminder to investors that Apple hasn't suddenly quit, and that they are still very busy being the great company that they are.
Anyway, at least we have something positive to look forward to.
Well, judging from the weekend traffic at the local mall here, the economy is doing just fine. Restaurants are jammed as usual.
The indicators lead me to believe we are growing and will continue to grow at 2% GDP for at least another year. Slow but steady...just like the employment situation, which is painfully slow. Should knock BO out since no significant gains in employment are forecast to save him by next summer when the race will be in full force.
Agree the profits picture should continue but take a slight breather when Q2 are released. I predict that Q3 data should bring back a higher market by Oct - Dec.
It's interesting that the pace of price increases is trending up no doubt due to energy costs so this fits in with a muted recovery for the foreseeable future.
QE will be in focus as far as the economy feels at this point.
I`m glad you see the same thing as I do.....This is just a contrived phenomena by the big financial firms to generate fear and in turn commissions...When stocks go down so do bonds, and if you don`t believe in what you are doing, they all get thrown out.....Here is to calmer seas---and soon---:) Always keep in the back of your mind October....Tony
Pretty much in agreement. Tag and Tony are right - much of it is contrived and/or exxagerated and it all is one directional - either favorable or vice versa. Whoever controls the pen controls the deal and the media pen is now negative.
Since I have made some correct calls recently, I am making some more predictions for stock prices upto around Aug Sep: F not quite at bottom yet, $12 should be it. AAPL should bottom out at around $310-315. C has seen the bottom. BAC is in the same boat as C. QLIK might pull back to $26.
I linked it without checking it as it had virtualy the same headline. I can't find a link to the story I intended to link but it echoed your thoughts of suddenly the plug was pulled out on optomism.
Things (housing, retailing etc) are way better than is being reported...Of course there are pockets of slowness in some sections, but overall a fairly firm environment everywhere I go....Now that is not to say I travel all that much, but it is a good sample...
I mention October, only to remind not to get too carried away, when that bit of good news you are looking for hits.....
Another thing-- I think most people are really not putting the genuine blame for the not so robust employment picture where it should be....The elected representative we as a group have chosen, are just not doing a very good job ...There is so much abuse in the spending, and bickering, it is getting boring....Man we don`t need to hear about some guy showing himself , or the other petty antics going on in Washington.....We need for the group, as a whole, to do something about the overall state of affairs in the country....and the news media has just lost it`s way......Of course that last statement is just my opinion, but I am sticking with it until I see some improvement... Tony
Great article which shows the rubber band is still snapping back on credit/liquidity bubble. This will take awhile as the balance has yet to be attained in proper financial risk vs. return in many of the markets. The Too big to Fail are still over filled with junk credit burden on their books.
Yes, you need to back the credit risk you take. What a concept. The Circle of Finance is coming around!
I always put in 92-93 octane. Have you been using 89 all along? Here in NJ 92-93 is $3.89-3.99 while 89 is 10 to mainly 20 cents cheaper.
Len,
I experimented with both the first few months I owned the car in late 2007 and early 2008. I saw no real difference in gas mileage nor the way the car was performing. I have been using 89 octane ever since and my car runs great. 89 Octane in IA contains 10% ethanol and when I left home Saturday morning, it was $3.48 per gallon. The 91 Octane is $3.78 (always 30 cents more per gallon). I bet that if you try out the 89 Octane in NJ, you will also be pleased.
BTW, I think there is some additional downward trend for the gas prices.
OW... did you catch my post to Len regarding the article he linked?
I pointed out to Len that it was actually written FOUR YEARS AGO... preceding the economic meltdown. Len posted it by error, yet you see some present-day similarity?
If that's the case that things look similar to you now compared to the way they looked back then, then what conclusion should be drawn? :surprise:
I have been watching Citi, and tend to agree that this stock can return a quick 10% return in a very short period of time. All it has to do is go from the current $37.92 to $41.71. Heck, it was trading in the mid-forties after the stupid stock reverse-split, and had a high in January of 51.50.
‘Perfect Storm’ May Threaten Global Economy By Shamim Adam - Jun 12, 2011 8:55 PM PT
A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.
There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.
“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”
Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.
The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.9 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus.
Bond Market ‘Revolt’ World expansion may slow in the second half of 2011 as “the deleveraging process continues,” fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs, Roubini also said.
Easing growth may spur demand for dollar assets as a “safe haven,” he said in response to questions after a speech in Singapore today. The Dollar Index, which gauges the U.S. currency’s value against a basket of six counterparts including the euro, yen and British pound, rose 0.1 percent as of 11:35 a.m. in Singapore, bound for a fourth straight daily increase.
Roubini is among analysts who predicted the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 that was triggered by a collapse in the value of U.S. mortgage securities.
Some of his other predictions haven’t panned out, including his call on July 4, 2010, for “market surprises on the downside” in ensuing months and a weakening in economic growth. The MSCI World Index rallied 23 percent in the second half of last year, while U.S. gross domestic product gains accelerated to 2.6 percent in the third quarter and 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter from 1.7 percent in the April-to-June period.
U.S. Bonds Roubini said two days ago that in the U.S., a failure to address the budget deficit risks a bond market “revolt.” President Barack Obama’s administration has been negotiating with Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, over cutting the federal government’s long-term shortfall and raising the debt ceiling.
“We’re still running over a trillion-dollar budget deficit this year, next year and most likely in 2013,” Roubini said in a speech in Singapore on June 11. “The risk is at some point, the bond market vigilantes are going to wake up in the U.S., like they did in Europe, pushing interest rates higher and crowding out the recovery.”
In Europe, officials need to restructure the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and waiting too long may result in a “more disorderly” process, Roubini also said.
European officials are racing to find a plan to stem Greece’s debt crisis by June 24 while sharing the cost of a new rescue with bondholders. Saddled with the euro area’s heaviest debt load, Greece is seeking additional loans after last year’s 110 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout.
Japan’s Contraction Japan’s economy, the world’s third-largest, slid into a recession last quarter, using the textbook definition of consecutive quarterly declines in GDP, after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and ensuing nuclear crisis. The government is spending an initial 4 trillion yen ($50 billion) to clean up from the disaster, which is estimated to have caused as much as 25 trillion yen in economic damage.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on June 1 that supply constraints are easing faster than expected as companies rush to repair their facilities. The risk in Japan is “if growth fizzles out after a short-term reconstruction stimulus,” leading to a renewed struggle to maintain expansion around 2013, Roubini said.
China’s economy may face a “hard landing” after 2013 as government efforts to boost growth through investment cause excess capacity, Roubini told reporters after his June 11 speech.
‘Overcapacity’ in China “China is now relying increasingly not just on net exports but on fixed investment” which has climbed to about 50 percent of GDP, he said. “Down the line, you are going to have two problems: a massive non-performing loan problem in the banking system and a massive amount of overcapacity is going to lead to a hard landing.”
A record $2.7 trillion of loans were extended in China over two years, pushing property prices to all-time highs even as authorities set price ceilings, demanded higher deposits and limited second-home purchases.
The nation’s current challenge is to maintain growth and curb price gains ahead of a leadership change next year, Roubini said. Officials may use administrative steps and price controls, as well as raising rates further and allowing currency appreciation, if inflation becomes a bigger problem, he said.
Political Transition “The policy challenge through next year, where you have a delicate political transition of the leadership, is to maintain growth in the 8 to 9 percent range while pushing inflation below what it is right now,” said Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC.
After next year, the bigger challenge in China is “to reduce fixed investment and savings and increase consumption. Otherwise after 2013, there will be a hard landing,” he said.
The risk of “outright” deflation and the probability of another recession in the U.S. are lower now than a year ago, and output in Japan could rebound in the second half of the year, Roubini said two days ago. “High-grade” corporations have “very strong” balance sheets, he said.
Roubini in July 2006 predicted a “catastrophic” global financial meltdown that central bankers would be unable to prevent. The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 sparked turmoil that led to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. Source: link title TM
Comments
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Apple just made an announcement. I like it.
I just bought 100 more shares @ 332.06 / share.
Maybe not the low for the day, but close enough.
TM
a varying number of shares each go around, assuming the stock changed price.......Tony
If you buy a predetermined dollar amount of stock on some sort of interval basis as you suggested, you "dollar-cost average". That's how I understand it, and when I've spoken to others, that's how they discuss it as well. I am certain you are suggesting the same thing.
wikipedia Dollar cost averaging
investopedia - dollar cost averaging
TM
Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is increasing the likelihood that consumers will buy multiple devices. A central drive for Apple will be the free iCloud service, which will automatically share contacts, calendars, messages, photos, apps and music purchased on iTunes.
Going even further, Apple has made it easier for users to cut the cord to their PC. The new iOS 5 mobile operating system will make it possible for users to operate their iPhone or iPad without tethering to a computer and syncing with iTunes.
Apple's decision to make iCloud free will eliminate about 0.3 percent of Apple's revenue in 2011, Munster believes. By his calculations, that number will be easily offset by higher sales of devices.
Munster's overweight rating on AAPL stock and $554 price target also do not take into account pricing on Lion, so in his view the low $29.99 cost of the Mac OS upgrade will not have an impact on his numbers. He also noted that users who make the upgrade to Lion will be more likely to stick with the Mac platform.
Regards,
OW
Thanks OW!
TM
Don't pay too much attention to after market activity.
The volume is often so small, it's meaningless.
Besides... this stock might do nothing for a while... But when it explodes, you will be glad.
TM
I don't mind the extra hundred shares of AAPL In the long run. Also, I liked the action on SONY (SNE) today.
Sorry for the confusion.
TM
The market is a definite challenge. Heck, we've got a psyscho economy and sometimes half the market trades are computerized... It's not even human any more.
TM
OK, I had read that but I was not sure whether or not that was new or all this had been rehashed by AAPL a couple days ago. When it comes to all this iCloud/iTunes/iBS, I am rather lost. I do like the news, however. I know that when I purchased my iPad last year, I was rather ticked off that I had to sync it to my computer to make it work. This will make it much easier and overall, it will lead to more sales.
Having said this, I do not think the big boys are at all excited yet. I know the after market trading can be misleading, but if the dudes thought this news was significant, I believe, AAPL would have been trading considerably higher. We'll see what the morning brings. I still hope to start buying below $330, but I may pull the trigger on a small amount.
I am convinced that the next operating system, OS X Lion will be very important to Apple because, as I wrote about in the past, it makes the user experience more familiar to those that are already accustomed to iOS.
Think about it... it makes so much sense to be able to go from an iPhone to an iPad to a MacBook Pro to an iMac and be able to synchronize everything and access everything and to have a similar user experience. This cross/device similarity and open access essentially joins all the Apple products to work together in harmony, and thus makes them all more desireable, from an ownership perspective.
And, with Apple working to make sure that it has the ability to offer a comprehensive and thorough media selection to its customers, and doing so at a competitive price, I am convinced that Apple is heading in the right direction.
Its not just about fancy and cool-looking hardware. It's about what that innovative hardware can do... and it is obvious to me that Apple recognizes this. With Apple, customers will get BOTH... innovative, sexy products as well as an unmatched rich user experience... all at a competitive price. There is no way anyone else will beat that combination, IMO.
Investors will see this when it actually happens... which isn't far off. They are not going to just gobble up shares of Apple without something tangible... which WILL come over a relatively short period of time. It's what investors EXPECT from Apple.
Newer products are in the pipeline. There will be stiff competition, but that just makes Apple move ahead faster... and that's a good thing.
So, we now have a stock that has pulled back a little during a general market correction. Big deal. It won't last long. The whole world is going to continue to gobble up Apple products, and the desire for Apple products and services will increase. So far, it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Be patient. This fall/winter is going to be awesome.
In the meantime, if investors let the price slide, consider it a gift... and buy on any significant dips (or dollar-cost-average) because your profit margin will be even better down the road.
TM
I just purchased 25 more shares of AAPL at $327.56.
When Apple's share price drops significantly, I will continue to buy small amounts in order to continue lowering my average overall cost on the investment. Therefore, when it finally starts making gains in the future, I will be in a better position.
The vast majority of my portfolio is totally in cash... waiting for the correction to end. The exception is the small number of fixed equities that I have held for many years, and of course, the recent purchase of 225 shares of AAPL, which now has an average cost per share of $331.31... and 1000 shares of SNE. That's it! Nothing else.
The correction continues. When it ends... and it will... we will all be able to buy equities for a MUCH better price than they were. That's a good thing, not a bad thing. All we have to do it wait.
TM
Edit: I just bought 35 more shares at about $327.
By this winter, we should be in good shape.
Edit: Unless the bottom drops out of the whole market :surprise:
2nd Edit: I see you got more at around $327. Low for the day is $326.59... so far.
TM
There is a strong possibility that the $326-$327 price/share range for AAPL could be a technical bottom. If the share price holds here, we would see mostly upside from here (although not necessarily immediately). If this share price doesn't hold a bottom, then we might want to wait for the next technical bottom before buying more, and I don't know what that would look like yet.
As a result... I have purchased more during the day (in addition to my last posted purchase)... so far... as follows...
25 shares @ $327.42
10 shares @ $326.75
10 shares @ $326.75
TM
EDIT: Today's negative market has wiped out my SONY (SNE) gains from yesterday... I am essentially flat on the stock at this point. I'll hang on for a while and see what happens. This stock was soooo hammered recently, that's why I bought it... I can't resist the upside potential... but in this kind of market it's hard to expect much of anything to go up significantly.
EDIT 2: Buying AAPL shares as the market closes... will fill in the details in a few minutes.
EDIT 3: Sold all SONY (SNE) shares.
Bought more AAPL shares... will indicate today's summary in the next post
Today's TOTAL AAPL share purchases occurred as follows...
(I am including the purchases I posted above. This is today's complete purchase activity... 9 total purchases)...
25 @$327.42
15 @$326.93
10 @$326.75
10 @$326.75
10 @$326.51
10 @$326.40
10 @$326.01
25 @$325.70
25 @$325.70
MY TOTAL AAPL INVESTMENT is as follows.
TOTAL 365 shares @ $329.58 AVERAGE share price= $120,296.97 TOTAL AAPL INVESTMENT
As you can see, I am moderately yet significantly invested, but I am not considering investing at the lofty levels of earlier this year. There's still a LOT of risk to this very dangerous and complicated market, and there could still be some painful downside ahead.
Moving forward... I do not intend to accumulate more AAPL shares unless they take a very significant dip, in which case I might consider buying more to improve the average share price. Otherwise, it's sit and wait until Fall/Winter.
If, however, the U.S. economy enters another meltdown, and the market starts to totally collapse (while possible, that seems less likely), then I would bail out and take the short-term loss, and wait for a bottom after the meltdown... then start buying all over again.
That's it.
TM
This is why I said in a post a while ago that Apple is a subscription model under the surface. Albeit a rapidly growing one.
First time I'm down on an Apple share purhase. I keep thinking fundamentals have to limit losses here but it's not happening. Other than my $160 shares I now have a block at $304 and a block at $332.60.
This correction is not a real sell-off. It's volume is low so we have a lack of buyer conviction. How much of that is job and economic stats, how much Obama possibly adding more stimulus in a re-election hope I d'ont know. We had to correct but I thought it would be a sell-off not this. So I thnk we are nearing bottom and the market has to realize that strong earnings are ruling but they come at the cost of job growth.
I am driving all day tomorrow to Akron, OH to visit my daughter and her family that moved to Akron from Belleville, MI a bit over a month ago (about the time a broke my wrist). I'll be listening to a lot of Sirius/XM on the trip. I'm really looking forward to the trip. I'll be posting from Akron next week.
On the LS what type of mileage do you get on long trips? On mine I'll get 27-28 and on my GL I'll even get 20-21. My sons car does best in city. He's actually averaging 36.1 now. It keeps improving with miles driven. On my old LS I hit slightly better numbers but this car is weighted down by the AWD and it's most notable in local driving.
On the LS what type of mileage do you get on long trips? On mine I'll get 27-28 and on my GL I'll even get 20-21.
I'm just about ready to hit the road. Depending on weather conditions which makes a big difference, I average about 28-29 on the highway. With a tailwind and temperatures in the 50s-70s, I can get as high as 33-34. The AWD that you have is more than worth the hassle of snow tires in winter. I look forward to the day when I don't have to deal with this issue.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
At the worst, I get 36 -37 mpg, which is driving the car in Sport Mode, and mashing the gas pedal all the time. BTW, I do this all too often.
But, with minimum effort, in ECO Mode, I can get into the 40's. I hit over 50 once, just seeing if it could be done, but I don't like driving like that.
Overall, the CT gets two - three times the gas mileage of most other cars, especially in city driving... and therefore cuts the price of gas into half or even a third.
But, it's no big lux cruiser, which comes at a price.
TM
She only drives about 5,000 miles a year so the LX is not killing us on gas. I know it is wasteful and I feel a little guilty, but On the other hand I know she is in a big safe vehicle that she is happy and familiar with. Plus, like most women, she has no conscience. Just kidding !
In the KC area Lexus is very short on inventory. Plenty of RX's, since they are made in Canada, but anything coming from Japan is almost non existent because of all the problems there.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
But seriously, while not being a Lexus fanboy myself, the CT might be the non-tuned model I would consider most...much more appealing than a Prius.
As an interesting tidbit, if you happen to be driving on the Indian Turnpike (I-80), try to avoid getting gas in Indiana. Exxon-mobil was charging about $4.40 per gallon for 89 octane (amazing rip-off). I had plenty of gas left after filling up at home in Des Moines and I decided to get gas in OH. At the first service station, about 40 miles into OH, I stopped to get gas at a Valero station. Instead of $4.40, it was $3.90 here. Btw, back home in Des Moines, it goes for $3.48 for 89 octane (10% ethanol).
The drive was very enjoyable. I even listened to my beloved Red Sox in the afternoon as they pounded the Blue Jays 16 to 4. After starting out at 2 and 10, they are now 38 and 26 and they have the best record in the American League, if not all of baseball. I'm sure Laurasdada loves it.
I am not surprised that the outlook has been negative, but the LEVEL of negativity is astonishing.
It's as if we are not living in the same world any more.
Much of the news claims that Obama's economic policies have failed. If it is true that Obama's financial plans (if he ever really had any) have failed... then what's next for stocks?
Wouldn't a failed recovery invalidate a significant portion of the stock market's gains of the past three years, since those gains were predicated upon the success of the recovery?
And, if much of those gains are invalid... then how far would the market need to fall to give us a "reality check"? What if the market only gave up half of it's 3-year gains? If so, the Dow would go to 10,400 and AAPL shares would go to $225.
Wow. This is uncharted territory all over again. Dangerous territory.
TM
Up until a couple of days ago everything was rosy in the financial world. A couple of bad days in the market and suddenly we are in a depression?
I don't think the majority of these people are anywhere near as well informed as the people here on this board. Most of them just echo what someone else has said...and the guy they are echoing is just saying what someone told him to say. Ridiculous I say.
I am just going to do what I have always done and use what little common sense that I have to figure out how to handle my investments.
In the meantime don't be surprised if we see a nice rally next week !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I always put in 92-93 octane. Have you been using 89 all along? Here in NJ 92-93 is $3.89-3.99 while 89 is 10 to mainly 20 cents cheaper.
The economy is not that bad. It's growing, corporations are super-efficient right now because of high unemployment and I think businessmen are waiting to see how the election will shape up. Four more years of Obama is a scary thing as he may unleash his tax policies in a lame duck administration and really kill this economy. I wouldn't even want to think about what happens with jobs and housing if Obama tries to raise taxes to cover his wreckless spending.
Re the market - if the economy just sustains itself as is, corporate profits should grow so it's hard to see much more downfall. Overall multiples are not that high right now to bring about a large fall. Apple at $225 would be at such a low multiple management could buy it back. We'd need a systemic failure in banking to bring about a major fall IMO.
I think the media essentially just hypes and spins the current situation whatever that might be.
One of the points I was trying to make in my post was that the level of hype and the level of of consensus is unusual and alarming.
Many of those typically bullish talking heads have suddenly been bearish... some very bearish. Even the typically bullish Cramer, for example, has been quite negative regarding the current investment climate. It's hard to find anyone that has a positive perspective on the stock market.
Again, it's the LEVEL of negative consensus that has me concerned.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Now that so much seems in jeopardy, as much of the latest data tends to indicate a worsening situation, it makes some sense that the market would retreat.
That all said, I would venture to say that if... IF, IF... we get a significant piece of positive financial data or a positive economic report, then I think the market could reverse itself, and rally in a HUGE way. The problem is that the data or report would have to be impressive enough to overcome the recent pile of poor indicators.
BTW, for those that are interested, I am fairly certain that Apple is going to significantly update the MacBook Air models very soon... possibly as soon as this Wednesday. They will getting the newer, more powerful Intel (Sandy Bridge, i5 or i7) processors, as well as possible other improvements such as Thunderbolt and other feature enhancements. Will this be enough to lift the stock? I think it depends partly upon the overall market condition on the day they make the announcement. Also, it would be helpful if Apple has something else up its sleeve to announce at the same time, or soon thereafter, which would be a great reminder to investors that Apple hasn't suddenly quit, and that they are still very busy being the great company that they are.
Anyway, at least we have something positive to look forward to.
TM
It's hard to say what George Soros has up his sleeve. But you can bet that it is ULTRA-liberal... and it isn't anything good.
TM
The indicators lead me to believe we are growing and will continue to grow at 2% GDP for at least another year. Slow but steady...just like the employment situation, which is painfully slow. Should knock BO out since no significant gains in employment are forecast to save him by next summer when the race will be in full force.
Agree the profits picture should continue but take a slight breather when Q2 are released. I predict that Q3 data should bring back a higher market by Oct - Dec.
It's interesting that the pace of price increases is trending up no doubt due to energy costs so this fits in with a muted recovery for the foreseeable future.
QE will be in focus as far as the economy feels at this point.
Regards,
OW
October can be a brutal month for the stock market.
Is that what you were referring to?
TM
Pretty much in agreement. Tag and Tony are right - much of it is contrived and/or exxagerated and it all is one directional - either favorable or vice versa. Whoever controls the pen controls the deal and the media pen is now negative.
From Yesterdays NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/26/business/worldbusiness/26iht-markets.5.6855163- .html?scp=2&sq=stocks%20plunge%20amid%20worries%20over%20growth&st=cse
That article was written in the summer, four years ago.
Anything seem familiar?
Yikes... :surprise:
TM
F not quite at bottom yet, $12 should be it.
AAPL should bottom out at around $310-315.
C has seen the bottom.
BAC is in the same boat as C.
QLIK might pull back to $26.
Things (housing, retailing etc) are way better than is being reported...Of course there are pockets of slowness in some sections, but overall a fairly firm environment everywhere I go....Now that is not to say I travel all that much, but it is a good sample...
I mention October, only to remind not to get too carried away, when that bit of good news you are looking for hits.....
Another thing-- I think most people are really not putting the genuine blame for the not so robust employment picture where it should be....The elected representative we as a group have chosen, are just not doing a very good job ...There is so much abuse in the spending, and bickering, it is getting boring....Man we don`t need to hear about some guy showing himself , or the other petty antics going on in Washington.....We need for the group, as a whole, to do something about the overall state of affairs in the country....and the news media has just lost it`s way......Of course that last statement is just my opinion, but I am sticking with it until I see some improvement...
Tony
Great article which shows the rubber band is still snapping back on credit/liquidity bubble. This will take awhile as the balance has yet to be attained in proper financial risk vs. return in many of the markets. The Too big to Fail are still over filled with junk credit burden on their books.
Yes, you need to back the credit risk you take. What a concept. The Circle of Finance is coming around!
Regards,
OW
I always put in 92-93 octane. Have you been using 89 all along? Here in NJ 92-93 is $3.89-3.99 while 89 is 10 to mainly 20 cents cheaper.
Len,
I experimented with both the first few months I owned the car in late 2007 and early 2008. I saw no real difference in gas mileage nor the way the car was performing. I have been using 89 octane ever since and my car runs great. 89 Octane in IA contains 10% ethanol and when I left home Saturday morning, it was $3.48 per gallon. The 91 Octane is $3.78 (always 30 cents more per gallon). I bet that if you try out the 89 Octane in NJ, you will also be pleased.
BTW, I think there is some additional downward trend for the gas prices.
I pointed out to Len that it was actually written FOUR YEARS AGO... preceding the economic meltdown. Len posted it by error, yet you see some present-day similarity?
If that's the case that things look similar to you now compared to the way they looked back then, then what conclusion should be drawn? :surprise:
TM
I have been watching Citi, and tend to agree that this stock can return a quick 10% return in a very short period of time. All it has to do is go from the current $37.92 to $41.71. Heck, it was trading in the mid-forties after the stupid stock reverse-split, and had a high in January of 51.50.
I am considering a play on this stock.
TM
By Shamim Adam - Jun 12, 2011 8:55 PM PT
A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.
There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.
“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”
Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.
The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.9 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus.
Bond Market ‘Revolt’
World expansion may slow in the second half of 2011 as “the deleveraging process continues,” fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs, Roubini also said.
Easing growth may spur demand for dollar assets as a “safe haven,” he said in response to questions after a speech in Singapore today. The Dollar Index, which gauges the U.S. currency’s value against a basket of six counterparts including the euro, yen and British pound, rose 0.1 percent as of 11:35 a.m. in Singapore, bound for a fourth straight daily increase.
Roubini is among analysts who predicted the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 that was triggered by a collapse in the value of U.S. mortgage securities.
Some of his other predictions haven’t panned out, including his call on July 4, 2010, for “market surprises on the downside” in ensuing months and a weakening in economic growth. The MSCI World Index rallied 23 percent in the second half of last year, while U.S. gross domestic product gains accelerated to 2.6 percent in the third quarter and 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter from 1.7 percent in the April-to-June period.
U.S. Bonds
Roubini said two days ago that in the U.S., a failure to address the budget deficit risks a bond market “revolt.” President Barack Obama’s administration has been negotiating with Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, over cutting the federal government’s long-term shortfall and raising the debt ceiling.
“We’re still running over a trillion-dollar budget deficit this year, next year and most likely in 2013,” Roubini said in a speech in Singapore on June 11. “The risk is at some point, the bond market vigilantes are going to wake up in the U.S., like they did in Europe, pushing interest rates higher and crowding out the recovery.”
In Europe, officials need to restructure the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and waiting too long may result in a “more disorderly” process, Roubini also said.
European officials are racing to find a plan to stem Greece’s debt crisis by June 24 while sharing the cost of a new rescue with bondholders. Saddled with the euro area’s heaviest debt load, Greece is seeking additional loans after last year’s 110 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout.
Japan’s Contraction
Japan’s economy, the world’s third-largest, slid into a recession last quarter, using the textbook definition of consecutive quarterly declines in GDP, after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and ensuing nuclear crisis. The government is spending an initial 4 trillion yen ($50 billion) to clean up from the disaster, which is estimated to have caused as much as 25 trillion yen in economic damage.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on June 1 that supply constraints are easing faster than expected as companies rush to repair their facilities. The risk in Japan is “if growth fizzles out after a short-term reconstruction stimulus,” leading to a renewed struggle to maintain expansion around 2013, Roubini said.
China’s economy may face a “hard landing” after 2013 as government efforts to boost growth through investment cause excess capacity, Roubini told reporters after his June 11 speech.
‘Overcapacity’ in China
“China is now relying increasingly not just on net exports but on fixed investment” which has climbed to about 50 percent of GDP, he said. “Down the line, you are going to have two problems: a massive non-performing loan problem in the banking system and a massive amount of overcapacity is going to lead to a hard landing.”
A record $2.7 trillion of loans were extended in China over two years, pushing property prices to all-time highs even as authorities set price ceilings, demanded higher deposits and limited second-home purchases.
The nation’s current challenge is to maintain growth and curb price gains ahead of a leadership change next year, Roubini said. Officials may use administrative steps and price controls, as well as raising rates further and allowing currency appreciation, if inflation becomes a bigger problem, he said.
Political Transition
“The policy challenge through next year, where you have a delicate political transition of the leadership, is to maintain growth in the 8 to 9 percent range while pushing inflation below what it is right now,” said Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC.
After next year, the bigger challenge in China is “to reduce fixed investment and savings and increase consumption. Otherwise after 2013, there will be a hard landing,” he said.
The risk of “outright” deflation and the probability of another recession in the U.S. are lower now than a year ago, and output in Japan could rebound in the second half of the year, Roubini said two days ago. “High-grade” corporations have “very strong” balance sheets, he said.
Roubini in July 2006 predicted a “catastrophic” global financial meltdown that central bankers would be unable to prevent. The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 sparked turmoil that led to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
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TM