What do you mean "Whether I meant it or not?" What's that supposed to mean?
OK, let's try and end this soon. What I meant by the above statement is that you said "should" drop 1,000-2,000 and not "will". That is all I meant by the remark.
However, it seemed to me that when this last correction was going on, I wasn't "getting through to you" and some of the others (I apologize if that choice of words was offensive, as it wasn't meant to be) because it seemed to me that you didn't want to face the truth about the correction or about your darling stock, which had been so good to you for so long. It's almost like you took the decline of AAPL personally, and now you seem to be upset with me for being honest about the decline of the stock and the potential negatives of the company. My expression was obviously, more than anything, an expression of frustration.
There is no question that AAPL has been my "darling stock" as you phrased it. But I am NOT AT ALL upset with you for being honest about the decline. I was also saying for several months that AAPL was acting like crap compared to the rest of the market. I could not understand why it was acting so crappy. I did get out of AAPL partly on your suggestion a couple weeks ago I think.
I certainly hope that this forum continues, and the members continue to post here... in the usually friendly and fun atmosphere. If not, however, it's certainly not the end of the world, but I would miss it.
The thought of leaving this forum never even crossed my mind. Why would anyone that has been here for several years want to leave? This is a fantastic forum for sharing information so that we can all make better decisions about the market. SO, let's move on and consider this friendly argument closed.
Well Tag, that is a good post of yours......Although I agree with Cyclone, what I think has happened is your technique has morphed into very quick trades---almost on the hour--where as Charlie is sort of in between , a longer term view for most of his funds, and a trading account, and Jflix is a longer term sort of guy....and I am with Jflix, except when I sense a major move......
Tony...
My technique is no different than it's ever been. What continues to change is the market. As the market goes through changes, my investing/trading adjusts accordingly.
Let me be clear and give detail here so to prevent argument or confusion.
Going back to when the market was going through it's ascention after the horrible meltdown I had a portfolio that consisted of 50% fixed securities and 50% equities. So, a solid HALF of my investments were steady-as-she-goes long-term. The remaining equities half was mostly long-term as well, and it was a mix of 80% stocks and 20% funds... making the TOTAL 50% fixed securities, 40% stocks, and 10% funds.
So, that left me with the majority 60% of my portfolio in long-term investments and 40% of my portfolio subject to my "timing" , although I was still able to pull the funds, but not as quickly, if I thought it was necessary.
On several occassions, I got "out" of the market, because the market warranted it, in my opinion at the time. I saw no reason to ride out any downturns, and I posted to that effect. The response I got was not supportive at the time, and I was challenged by many (some that don't even usually post here) that timing the market was impossible and that no one can do it successfully. Perhaps you remember the arguments that were thrown my way. The only argument I had in reply was the very success of my own actions, which I in fact demonstrated. I proved that the market can be timed, and I even explained how to do it.
Yet, the arguments still came at me, and the disbelief was still there, and I apparently had not proved that I knew what I was talking about. I had little credibility. Sure, I had an opinion, as does everyone, but I wanted to demonstrate more than just my opinion. I wanted to answer the challenge and prove that I was right about market timing. As you recall, over a series of "getting it right" most of the time, I finally proved that it IS indeed possible to get out of the market near the beginning of a downward period, and then return to the market again, thus avoiding some of the loss that would otherwise have impacted the bottom line of any portfolio.
Anyway, during those times, most of my portfolio remained the same, and the only changes were to the 40% equities, which I would sometimes pull out of the market and then go back in to avoid downturns whenever possible. I posted that I had about 3 dozen stocks and funds at the time, and I discussed some of them from time to time. I made small changes to the stocks once in a while, did some weeding and pruning, and I usually mentioned some of that activity. But, I was not trading on the hour. For the most part, I invested and traded lightly as the market dictated.
While the market was doing very well earliler this year, I cut down the percentage of fixed securities to half of what it was... from 50% to 25%, and I gave myself even more to invest in equities, because the market was behaving in a way that equities were a smart investment... at that time... so it made sense for me to increase the percentage of equities in my portfolio.
But then the market changed again, and I saw trouble coming, and I posted that I was expecting a correction. Most recently, I have been in a different mode, not because I have changed my technique, as you suggested, but because we have been in a long drawn out 7-week correction (that may or may not be over). So, as the market changed into a correction, I was certainly not about to "stay the course", and simply watch the value of my portfolio go down, down, down. Instead, as the correction got worse, I got out of the market, and started approaching it the only way I could, other than be totally out, and that was to trade in short time intervals, and a few little quick trades. Even then, most of my portfolio has been in cash most of the time, patiently waiting for the market's bleeding to stop. In the meantime, I have been looking for "bargains", and oversold stocks to buy at better prices and to re-enter the market when the correction is over, and make the proper shift into a longer-term approach, as the market improves... in other words, I will have made my adjustment to the changes in the market itself.
During this time of the correction, I decided to quit my broker, as everyone knows, and this complicated things a little, but it also has given me a new freedom to invest and trade very quickly. I really haven't done much with this, as it is soooo recent in the big picture, but it doesn't change my technique. It only gives me the total accountabiltiy that was not there before. I will still do what I have done. Invest as the market dictates. When the market is good, I will have money in equities, and leave them there steady-as-she-goes. When it corrects, I will try to get "out", and when it is acting crazy going up and down and up and down in a single day and during a week or more, then I will trade quickly and adjust to the market's quick changes. I still own my fixed securities (I transferred them as well), so what's changed?
I do not know if this clarifies my approach, because your statement in your post, which I quoted above, indicates to me that you might not understand what it is that I am doing.
(END OF PART ONE... CONTINUE TO PART TWO, NEXT POST...)
I adjust to the market. I make decisions based upon information that I research or discover. For example, if I learn about an electronic part that is going to be put inside Apple's iPads, then I will buy the stock of the manufacturer of that part, provided the other factors surrounding that company warrant such a purchase. When I discovered that a restaurant chain, such as Chipolte (CMG), was a real winner, I bought the stock... but I also determined when I wanted to sell it, and took profits without being greedy.
When I listen to the Fed, I make adjustments because I almost never fight the Fed. When I listened to the President during his early months in office, I wanted to get "out" of the market for a little while, because he so often said things that were negative for the stock market. If I learn that McDonalds is going to improve their menu, I might want to consider buying the stock. It's many things in real life that often give me ideas as to which stock to buy. I also do a lot of homework, and I pay attention. I listen to the talking heads, and I am amazed at how they all see things so differently... but once in a while, one of those heads will say something that rings a chord and it strikes me as being smart. The world is changing all the time, and the stock market is changing all the time to digest what the world is about. I do not feel comfortable to just "let stocks ride". It's the riskiest thing anyone can do in the modern stock market. In the old days, that worked... but it doesn't not work as effectively with todays' stock market.
At this time in history, if someone is seriously interested in a long-term "leave-it-alone" safe investment approach, I personally believe they would be better off with an investment in bonds or bond funds, and NOT invested in the stock market. To be truly successful in today's modern highly-computerized stock market, it requires serious attention and adjustments that most brokers are not willing to offer, and most individuals are not capable of handling, or simply do not have the necessary time.
Good explanation, and it makes perfect sense. I pulled all my equity positions from my long time Wells Fargo broker about six months ago, leaving only my fixed income bonds, funds, etc. with him.
I wanted to be able to move faster and less expensively and not have to explain myself to my broker. To be able to take advantage of perceived opportunities, I then I opened the Scottrade account about 6 months ago.
I also do a lot of research and I have grown to have a lot of confidence in the folks at Motley Fool, though I don't always follow their advice.
I think the main difference between us is I have not been as successful with my strategy as you have. For the 6 months I have only managed to break about even with my equity trades. Some worked out and some did not, but I am still learning and I plan no major changes (other than to be more successful) to my strategy.
I also mentioned earlier that I bought a small house to rehab and sell as there are some good opportunities in my area. I hope to make a nice profit on this venture and it is almost ready to put on the market.
Currently I am about one third in equities, one third in bonds, and one third in cash. Thanks again for that good explanation.
Tag, you put a lot of effort into your response, and are a gifted writer....As a whole I am one of your biggest supporters, and on numerous occasions have complimented your call---particularly the more meaningful ones.....Numerous times you make a buy or sale---sometimes correctly, some time not, and I don`t say anything as I don`t have anything to say....Lately you have had to makes some changes with your broker----probably based on input from everyone on this board---and I and others who have also had to do some hard stuff over the last few years.. We have been there for you....
Sure your techniques is basically the way you thoroughly describe it, and as the market and economy have changes , you have been right there....What I implied by my comment is that your changes have really gotten very quick...Certainly to try and take advantage of your perception, but remember the rest of us that are not trying to `time` the market on a daily basis are not as attuned to the nuances , consequently really aren`t in a position to give the recognition to a particularly good trade on your part...
Going back to the end of March beginning of April, when I filled up with gas, and posted I felt a slight slowing down ...Just could`t put my finger on it??....We all were pretty enumerated with Apple at the time....During the last couple of month, as the slow down began to be picked up by the media, everyone has now got some doubts about Apple ---to a degree---the patience is very lacking now...People want results...we all want a dream stock as Apple has been....Charlie has also made a monumental change in his life, and has , until recently, been a big supporter of Apple....He still has his eye on the ball, and if he re-purchased the stock at say this current level, and next week it was back to three forty, I would say the stock has hardly had a hick-up in this poor market...
I personally think Apple is still a `dream` stock, but it has to do it`s thing each quarter...earnings --products--and just good stuff...with a believable future...If by chance something doesn`t go just right, then all of us on this board has the same right as you , to change their mind, and take a different action than was anticipated a couple of months ago....What will make us all `sharpen` up is the bottom line.....Good Luck Tony
I am curious about your earlier post whereby you said your market investment is long-term, and similar to Len's... Len has a decent long-term investment in certain key stocks that he bought at a terrific price after the meltdown. Is your situation like that?
My apologies if I have not remembered correctly... but I ask ths because I was under the impression that you owned fixed securities... which would be significantly different, as they don't have the same kind of risk more typically associated with stocks, and don't require the same kind of attention to market swings.
Going way back, I had (HAD) very long term holdings in banks, that were merged and split, so the cost was less than fifty cents, and the stocks were in the fifty dollar range, or higher......I was loath to sell any of them , but did so , and the price was say thirty five dollars a share vs fifty five dollars a share......Some of them ceased to exist now.....That was really hard to do.....and shook me by the heels..
After that, right around the time Charlie made the heroic call to buy, I had purchased in lots , what was new to me ETF bond funds and junk eetf, and several bank preferred stocks---which were yielding in the high teens.....It was a hard call for me, and even to today I still own them....The siren song I have heard several times, but I am holding......Like Charlie, I could loose the entire investment, and it would definitely change my way of life, but as I earned the money I remember where I came from, so I can go right back......I was happy then and I would adjust and be happy again..
As I have done what I suggested for my `Godchildren` I don`t have debt---had it when I was starting out in life---and have a fair to a lot of money in real-estate..but as I do that for my pleasure, I have been fortunate not to be hurt by it.....When I first purchased the place in Miami and saw around thirty cranes all at work, I knew things were not going to turn out well....but certain properties are always in demand...That was more than five years ago, and I bet I mentioned that back then...So Jflix had his major money in some funds, which he leaves alone for the most part, and I hope he has done as well as I in the ETF which throw off a great stream every month, and also have risen probably fifty percent in value also...
A while ago I mentioned in one of the posts that I thought this was the time for anyone who wanted to better their life, to scout out a property that did that for them, and even though their existing home may be undervalued, that the new place was (as a percentage) worthwhile, as I think the real estate market will be vastly improved in a year...I don`t think there is any real rush, but a good house may not be around when things become more apparent...
Just to be very clear, any type of bond has risks that can be even greater than stocks....Most of us don`t know much about bonds, including yours truly, but the etf for bonds as well as different baskets of stocks offer a good chance for an investor who is not that savvy , or inclined to trade very often, as well as for a person who does trade a lot....With your sense of timing, I think you would be wise to investigate them, with a broad mind...By that I mean eg. If you or anyone thought agriculture was a good bet, then you could find etf that only were composed of those entities......You mentioned CAT the other day, and as I have had some dealings with them I have a bit of a different insight on that company (negative) but it is a really great one when priced right...I think there is an etf that along with cat and de, and several others offers a bit of a more watered down version of a pure play.....Look into some of those, and I personally would like to know your take as you know we all admire you....Just not when our feelings are at play..I know you would re word your post to Chariie as that isn`t you...Your Friend Tony
Tony and all the fathers on this board, I wish you all a heartfelt Happy Fathers Day. Personally, I am spending Fathers Day (before I head back to IA tomorrow) with my daughter and her family in Akron, OH. I absolutely loved it here this past 8 days. I am returning here (this time with my wife along as well) about July 1 and spend about 10 days. Btw, this part of OH is really gorgeous.
I don't want AAPL shares anymore. I don't care to own any. I have thought about this all weekend, and I will sell the small number of shares that I own when the market opens. I don't care if the stock is up or down. I will either gain or lose a small amount of money... and it will be worth it to me to be rid of the stock. I have spent more money on a family dinner than the amount of money I will gain or lose, so it irrelevant to me what the outcome is... other than to be completely free from owning the stock at this point in time.
The stock market offers a wide assortment of stocks to trade and invest in... there are many profitable opportunities.
In addition, after much thought about my life's priorities... I realize I have spent too much valuable time here posting. I will make a balanced adjustment.
Good luck to all, and I will stay in touch... although at a reduced level.
I placed that post at 4:48 AM... before sunrise... I was up early. As I indicated, I sold my AAPL shares at the open. The share price opened down $2.90... and in an electronic instant, I no longer owned any AAPL shares... fortunately only a small price to pay to be free of the stock, and well worth it.
Since then, the share price has been volatile and at one point plummeted as low as $310.50, down a whopping $9.76! :surprise:
I have no idea what the stock will do, but I am soooo glad to be done with it. The primary reasons being that it has been in a free-fall, and it has stolen too much of my attention away from other stocks that are potentially much better investments.
For those of you that "stay the course", I am hopeful that it all works out for you. I might buy some AAPL shares again one day... but not until I have adequately focused on finding other stocks that offer great upside potential, and not until I am convinced that the company's problems are behind it instead of in front of it.
I think the odds of buying a 1000 shares at $30 and having them rise $1 is greater than buying a 100 shares at $300 and them going up $10 in a day. Time for AAPL split 10 for 1 and get a much larger audience.
A matter of time but the higher the oil price, the more drag on the stock market which will reflect the economic forecast. Here is the picture for this coming quarter, afaic.
High crude prices could send the global economy back into recession, said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
"My worry is that current oil prices are a major risk of the global economic recovery," Birol said in a speech Tuesday in Singapore. "I'm very worried that we could see the same movie that we saw in 2008."
Oil surged to $147 in July 2008, pinching consumer spending just as the global financial crisis undermined investor confidence. Crude traded at $33 by December of that year.
I was driving all day yesterday as you all know and I could not do anything with AAPL or the market in general. I probably would have bought some when it collapsed to $310-311. And then this morning it took me by surprise. It was barely higher when I decided to take a shower. When I was done I was rather stunned to see AAPL more than $5 higher. I'm not sure if any news came out or what. I have not had time to investigate.
Disagree that things will get to that. I am more optimistic than that, and I think the market will go up, and then go sideways, and then up again.
In fact, I bought shares of 19 stocks, and got back in the market (and AFTER buying 18 stocks and FINALLY putting together a new portfolio, I got rid of my stubborness and did a solid 180-degree turn regarding AAPL, and bought AAPL shares as well... it just seemed empty without AAPL in the list.
And the nice surprise is that nearly everything in the portfolio is up today... so far. And the AAPL seems to have been a very lucky purchase.
Strange as it is to me, it seemed over the last few months, that as the price of oil rose, the stock market did likewise.....I guess if it were to really go to lofty heights, the economy would get hit, but right now it has come back to a degree, and the market is slowly factoring that in.....Tony
Charlie, Len, (and Tony?) have the perspective of a robust economy, and Gary and I (and you?) have the perspective of an economy that has been propped up with crutches and limping along.
Man, I was away a few days and this place exploded. Tag, I d'ont think this economy is robust at all. How coud it be with housing and banking in such bad shape. I think what you have is folks who are again secure about their jobs are spending and want to. You have a favorable dollar for exports and you have a lean corporate America so incremental profis per dollar of revenue are very high. Hence I expect corporate earnings to be firmer than you do.
D'ont take posts so personally. But it's sometimes hard to see where you are going. A month ago you thought Apple was great and holding it rquired patience. Now you are out of it forever. Most of us d'ont trade that way. Botom line - and its frustrating at times - is Wall Street just overvalues certain companies and undervalues others and it's almost impossible to undersand why. I've lost a lot of opportunity by never buying Amazon. I can't realistically value that company the way Wall Street does, hence I never bought it. Your ins and outs amaze me. I've never tried to time the market so perfectly. As I once posted - if I think Apple is going to $400 it doesn't much matter to me if I got it at $320 or $325.
Len... I have spoken as inconsistent as the market itself... it was difficult to understand...but fortunately things have worked out OK for me.
BTW... I DID buy AAPL near its low... I got lucky.
Bottom line... I was "out" for most of the correction, avoided the losses, and made a couple small mistakes while waiting mostly in cash, and am now "in" the market... but not completely yet. Moving slow and careful. So far, it's working out very well... Been lucky.
I am not as happy as I would have been if I had bought more AAPL near the lows yesterday or even if I had bought it near the opening this morning. Oh well, "beggars can't be choosers".
I saw this article when I clicked on AAPL news a bit ago on the E-Trade accounts. It is only on the iPad platform and there was no way I could give you the link instead of posting the entire article. I am upset that I did not buy more AAPL this morning. What do you guys think about what this guy says on the article? I think he makes terrific points about Apple's competition.
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Great news if you're Apple.
Your rivals are immolating themselves. Your industry is settling down into a cosy duopoly.
And yet your stock is getting cheaper and cheaper. It's starting to enter value territory.
What's up with that?
Last week came the latest shocker from Research In Motion (RIMM). The BlackBerry maker's warning on sales and profits sent its stock plummeting to historic lows. RIM's problems are in danger of becoming terminal. So, too, are those of ailing Nokia (NOK) -- the once brilliant Finnish mobiles giant. Things are so bad there, it is turning to Microsoft (MSFT) for salvation. That's like an alcoholic turning to Charlie Sheen for help drying out. How bad can you get?
I know Apple (AAPL) fanatics like to think their company is some kind of miracle worker, the eighth wonder of the world. But its greatest asset has always been the competition. With enemies like Nokia and Research In Motion -- let alone Microsoft -- who needs friends?
James Cordwell, analyst at Atlantic Securities, expects Apple to sell 9 million iPads this quarter -- nearly three times as many as it did a year ago.
This industry should be crowded with competing products. But if you want to see Apple's rivals, walk into any computer store. Most of the tablets are a year late. Some feel like someone snapped off the upper half of a laptop. What a joke. RIMM's Playbook is a flop.
Old time book chain Barnes & Noble (BKS) managed to get a half decent Android tablet, the Nook Color, on the market by last November. The big tech companies are still doing pratfalls over each other.
Competence ought to be a given in the big leagues. But Apple keeps playing the Bad News Bears.
I am starting to wonder if the executives at all the other top technology companies secretly own fistfuls of Apple stock in their private portfolios. It's the only explanation that makes any sense. Why else would, say, Microsoft have acted the way it has? Do you have a better explanation?
(Imagine what would have happened if Steve Jobs had allowed Apple to make an iPhone with a proper, physical keyboard. Jobs' weird hostility to keyboards is the only thing that has saved his competitors from complete oblivion.)
The collapse of most of the competition is rapidly turning the mobiles market into a duopoly: Apple versus Google's Android.
A duopoly is much better for investors than a free-for-all. And this situation may be even better for Apple than many realize. That's because Android doesn't really matter to Google (GOOG). It's a sideshow. So Google will never care anywhere near as much about updating and improving Android as Apple does about its own operating system.
After all, for Apple this is a matter of life and death.
It reminds me of the difference between being "involved" in a project and being "committed." A businessman from Catalonia once described the difference to me. "Think of a plate of ham and eggs," he said. "The chicken is involved. But the pig? The pig is committed!" Apple is committed.
But while the picture is looking bright, Apple is suddenly not getting much respect on Wall Street. All of a sudden, the world's most worshipped stock isn't getting any respect on Wall Street. It's fallen more than 10% in the last few months, even while hot new tech stocks have been flying.
Apple has come down from $363 in February to $316 Monday. Furthermore, that masks the fact that the company is sitting on a ton of net cash. At the end of the last quarter, cash, securities and other liquid assets exceeded liabilities by $51 billion, or around $55 a share. This may top $60 by the end of this quarter.
So the cash-free stock price -- the enterprise value of the business -- may only be around $260.
That's barely 10 times forecast earnings of $25 for the fiscal year ending in September. It's just nine times next year's forecast earnings. And it's only around 2.3 times this year's sales.
These are value-stock levels.
It's true that Apple boasts very high profit margins, and competition ought to be bringing those margins way down. Economists will tell you high margins rarely last. But with this kind of "competition," you never know.
The last time I urged people to buy Apple stock was in the crash of 2008-2009, when it hit $85. Later, I turned way too cautious, assuming -- wrongly -- that the competition would, er, compete. (It was still the sensible assumption.) Today, I'm nervous about the stock market overall, and this may be a bad time to take on risk. Nonetheless, it's hard to argue Apple is an expensive stock these days. Especially when you look at who it's competing with.
It wasn't long ago that I posted that I was hoping to see AAPL shares go down to $320 - $325, so I could buy a ton. But when it dropped a bunch more, it kind of spooked a lot of us, not knowing where it was heading.
Well, as it turns out I got much luckier than that... but, I'd say it still looks attractive at $325 if you have a longer-term (two-year) perspective... probably make a 25%-50% ROI.
I think this is gunk. First of all, oil/gas prices have sold off a lot the past couple months. Secondly, i do not believe that the "forces" (such as the Saudis) that control these things are likely to push oil prices to extremely lofty levels any time soon. I don't think they want another Global economic collapse.
Money Anxiety Index Latest Indicator of a Double-Dip CNBC.com | June 21, 2011 | 01:52 PM EDT
Where there is misery there also usually is anxiety.
Such is the case with two economic indicators, both showing conditions that have deteriorated to levels not seen in as much as 30 years.
The latest indicator to ring up trouble is the Money Anxiety Index, which uses traditional economic metrics as well as other factors to gauge the level of consumers' worry regarding their personal financial conditions.
According to the May figures, the MAI is not only at its highest level in 30 years at 91.9 but also two months away from indicating another dip into recession. In the past, five straight months of increases in the index often signaled recession.
“If this trend will continue for a couple more months the likelihood of a double-dip recession is very high,” Dan Geller, chief research officer for Money Anxiety, said in an interview. “Pretty much the main reason is uncertainty about the prospects of an economic recovery.”
The trend in the lesser-followed MAI comes on the heels of the Misery Index—a bit more well-known of a trend indicator—rising to levels not seen since May 1983. The Misery Index adds the unemployment and annualized inflation rate and currently stands at 12.7.
Both gauges are indicative of burgeoning problems for an economy still trying to find what the pros call “escape velocity” despite trillions in stimulus, bailouts and easy money.
“People feel it in their personal life, in the increasing Consumer Price Index, the unemployment situation, housing,” Geller said. “Overall, all those conditions pretty much lead to a lack of confidence in the recovery.”
After a lot of careful homework, I put together and then invested my new latest collection of stocks.
I will share one of them with you now.
This great company was recently the victim of a massive cyber hack attack... and it's stock was over punished as a result... leaving a huge rebound on the table just for the taking.
I own $50,000 worth of this stock. And that stock is a company we have all loved for many years...
SONY. Symbol SNE
Tremendous media empire, gaming, computers, fantastic precision electronic gadgets, a new line of awesome cameras, and some of the best TVs. A cutting edge company we all know very well.
...even if only a small portion of that potential is realized, the gains could be quite significant.
EDIT:
GS, What's your strategy for the financials? Also, I want to mention to you that in addition to SONY, I added TOYOTA to my latest portfolio, and you might want to also look into Toyota. Realize that Toyota took a temporary hit due to the Japanese catastrophe, but as that situation gets better, Toyota should rebound nicely, IMO.
Nothing but call options. I have already doubled the investment in C I bought in the low 38. Agree with you on BAC. I can make a killing it it move on 1-2 dollars up. I have not looked into Toyota. I am too busy trying to figure out the potential for Ford . edit: C is behaving like it would go back to 45 soon.
I have not looked into Toyota. I am too busy trying to figure out the potential for Ford .
I did include Ford in this latest group of stocks, and I think it is a "buy" at this level. I see an easy 10% - 20% gain in the ROI if purchasing the shares outright, and maybe more... especially if you consider Ford's international growth expectations.
Toyota is attractive because it is so logical that the dip was due to two circumstances that will have less of an impact over time... first was the huge recalls, second was the earthquake/tsunami/ nuclear disaster... And Toyota has been in the process of resuming production which took a terrible hit.
So, I see a positive direction ahead for Toyota. Besides, their stock symbol is TM... so that's got to be a good thing.
TM
EDIT: FWIW... If you are interested in a speculative stock that can offer quick and significant percentage gains, it is A123 Systems Inc (symbol AONE). This stock can pop high percentage returns in a single day, and then sell-off, only to do it again at some point not-too-far down the road. And, it's in a business that could legitimately take off. It's risky, of course, but when played right, it can be a huge money maker... in case you are interested.
I know that I have mentioned this on several occasions over the past month or two, but I believe that it's worth repeating since it looks to me that people are underestimating its importance. Bernanke today acknowledged that a slower economic growth than earlier projected in April, is partly due to the high gas prices seen through early May and thus consumers had been squeezed by it. The fact that gas prices have sold off at least 50 cents since then with little sign that it is headed higher is terrific news IMO for the economy.
Now please don't misconstrue the above that I believe we will have a "robust" economy that TM was "accusing" a few of us as projecting. On the contrary, as I stated before, it will be slow growth but growth nevertheless. Thus, I still believe that the low in this correction was pretty much already seen. I did nothing in the market again today, but if AAPL (yes, I admit I'm "in love" with it:) ) sells off down into the teens again, I will consider adding some more.
That`s pretty much what I think and further (as Jflix said) `those that are secure in their position in life, are spending`.....The people I know that do not have savings, are working and gainfully employed. This market --for me--just doesn`t embolden me to be involved to any meaningful extent.....Just some of the same old same old, week after week....Tony
Your post is full of vinegar... it is bitter towards me, and I am disappointed in you for its tone.
Your use of the word "accusing" is mean-spirited, IMO... that's a negative way to characterize what was simply my distinction between those of us that seemed to me to have seen the economy as being more robust than others.
Ya' know, Charlie, when you first posted that you had felt rubbed the wrong way by my posting... I never expressed in response that I personally thought you were being too sensitive, and making a mountain out of a molehill... instead I was gracious enough to APOLOGIZE.
So... please chill out!!
Secondly,
Bernanke may have said that the economy's slow growth is in part due to the gas prices, but he also said that THEY DID NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND what was behind the slow economic growth. And that was a very dangerous statement... because it demonstrated and admitted a lack of understanding and a lack of control of the economic situation, and it conceded that the FED is disconnected from reality to some unknown extent. So, while cheaper gas is a good thing, there are apparently factors that are unknown? How's that supposed to help investor confidence?
That`s pretty much what I think and further (as Jflix said) `those that are secure in their position in life, are spending`.....The people I know that do not have savings, are working and gainfully employed. This market --for me--just doesn`t embolden me to be involved to any meaningful extent.....Just some of the same old same old, week after week
The market is often a reflection of the economy... and perhaps more accurately a reflection of investor's perceptions of the economy... all combined, rolled up, and put together.
And, unfortunately, and part of the problem... there aren't nearly enough folks in the USA that are as "secure in their position in life", as those of us here that are much more fortunate. Too many folks are in a bad way. Waayyy toooo many. There are sooo many homes and jobs lost it is practically a crime against humanity. I can't help but to feel sad for the way the overall state of affairs has impacted so many. My heart is too big to just act like everything is just fine.
IMO, when so many of our fellow brothers and sisters are hurting... we are ALL hurting.
Regardless of our views, the market has made a bold statement... and the bottom line is that the market has gone negative for almost two solid months... agree with it or not... it is what it is.
Your post is full of vinegar... it is bitter towards me, and I am disappointed in you for its tone.
Your use of the word "accusing" is mean-spirited, IMO... that's a negative way to characterize what was simply my distinction between those of us that seemed to me to have seen the economy as being more robust than others.
TM,
In NO WAY am I trying to be mean spirited towards you or anyone else for that matter. If you note, I had the word "accusing" in quotes (in other words, I was just joking around). But the bottom line is that no one here is predicting a "robust economy" for a quite a while. I APOLOGIZE if you think I am mean spirited towards you. I am anything but mean spirited.
Bernanke may have said that the economy's slow growth is in part due to the gas prices, but he also said that THEY DID NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND what was behind the slow economic growth. And that was a very dangerous statement...
I don't consider it that dangerous of a statement just because they did not fully understand what else contributed to the slow economic growth. No one can understand every little nuance that goes into the economy. Remember, no two economists are ever in total agreement just as no two meteorologists see the forecast exactly the same. I honestly believe, that we will start to see better economic indicators over the next month or two. Gas price is a MAJOR factor in my optimism for better numbers down the road. The average "Joe Blow" out there does not need much of an excuse to spend more money. BTW, the rebuilding of Japan will also help a lot.
OK Charlie... let's get back on our friendly track then.
I believe the economy is sitting on a fence, to some extent. I think that there is a natural tendency towards growth in our country... in other words, I think growth is inherent in our capitalistic consumer society. That said, it can be undermined by bad policies and by bad pressures from the banking sector, the energy sector and political interference, as well as other factors. Government too often IS the problem itself.
Anyway, I do indeed expect things to improve, but not as quickly this summer as it will this fall and winter. I have said for quite some time that I think November will show us a big improvement, and I think Tony agreed with me on that one, if I recall correctly.
Anyway, niether of us owns AAPL at this point, as I sold it all to make some quick $$. So, we both need to find ourselves a good entry point.
Anyway, I do indeed expect things to improve, but not as quickly this summer as it will this fall and winter. I have said for quite some time that I think November will show us a big improvement, and I think Tony agreed with me on that one, if I recall correctly.
I have no disagreement whatsoever with your statement above.
Anyway, niether of us owns AAPL at this point, as I sold it all to make some quick $$. So, we both need to find ourselves a good entry point.
Oops!! Where did you get the impression that I don't own any AAPL now? If you saw my post from earlier this afternoon, I said that if AAPL were to sell off below $320 I will consider buying more shares. I also said that "yes, I am married to it". I did not get out of any shares I have been purchasing since it was about $331 (first entry point). My cheapest entry point was at about $320-321 last Friday I believe.
EDIT: Oops on me as well. I thought I posted a message earlier this afternoon (right after market closed) from my iPad. But somehow it never made it. I have no idea what happened. It must have been the iPad . In any case, I basically said at the time that I did nothing in the market today. But if AAPL were to drop to below the $320 level, I will consider buying some more shares. And, I also said yes, "I am married to AAPL" for better or for worse.
Speaking of AAPL, here is a new article on it talking about the iPhone5:
US to Lose Second Place in World Trade to India: Citi
In less than 40 years India will overtake the US as the world’s second-largest trading nation, pushing today's superpower into third place and Europe in to the little leagues, according to a new report by Citi.
“According to our projections, world trade in goods and services will grow from $37 trillion in 2010 to $149 trillion in 2030 and $371 trillion in 2050,” Citigroup’s William Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a research note released on Thursday.
“But at least as interesting as the growth in world trade that we forecast are the changes in its composition that we expect over the course of the next four decades, with today's emerging markets set to gain much more prominence in world trade relative to advanced economies,” they added.
The report predicts that trade between emerging markets will overtake that between advanced economies in just four years in a clear sign that the world’s major economies of Europe and North America are set to lose relative importance to the global economy.
The big winner according to the report will be Asia. “Developing Asia accounted for 24 percent of world trade in 2010, but its share is expected to reach 42 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2050,” said Buiter and Rahbari.
This will be more or less in line with the world’s population and see Europe and North America’s importance to global trade ebb over the next four years.
“Western Europe on the other hand, in 2010 by far the largest region in terms of trade with 34 percent of world trade — already down from 48 percent in 1990 — is expected to account for 19 percent of world trade by 2030 and 15 percent by 2050,” they wrote.
Going to be an interesting brave new world, as that isn't exactly a place known for endless innovation. I wonder if the caste system and alarming hopeless underclass will be exported...
Yes... Completely agree. I started to trade Ford, but I had to cut my trading short today. Wife's relatives are here from out of the area and we are in Disneyland... Which I do not need, but being tour guide.
Well, I got cold feet after the opening this morning, but I did buy 55 more shares at $326 and change on a sell-off from $328.50 or so about 2 hours prior to the close of the market.
Comments
OK, let's try and end this soon. What I meant by the above statement is that you said "should" drop 1,000-2,000 and not "will". That is all I meant by the remark.
However, it seemed to me that when this last correction was going on, I wasn't "getting through to you" and some of the others (I apologize if that choice of words was offensive, as it wasn't meant to be) because it seemed to me that you didn't want to face the truth about the correction or about your darling stock, which had been so good to you for so long. It's almost like you took the decline of AAPL personally, and now you seem to be upset with me for being honest about the decline of the stock and the potential negatives of the company. My expression was obviously, more than anything, an expression of frustration.
There is no question that AAPL has been my "darling stock" as you phrased it. But I am NOT AT ALL upset with you for being honest about the decline. I was also saying for several months that AAPL was acting like crap compared to the rest of the market. I could not understand why it was acting so crappy. I did get out of AAPL partly on your suggestion a couple weeks ago I think.
I certainly hope that this forum continues, and the members continue to post here... in the usually friendly and fun atmosphere. If not, however, it's certainly not the end of the world, but I would miss it.
The thought of leaving this forum never even crossed my mind. Why would anyone that has been here for several years want to leave? This is a fantastic forum for sharing information so that we can all make better decisions about the market. SO, let's move on and consider this friendly argument closed.
Well Tag, that is a good post of yours......Although I agree with Cyclone, what I think has happened is your technique has morphed into very quick trades---almost on the hour--where as Charlie is sort of in between , a longer term view for most of his funds, and a trading account, and Jflix is a longer term sort of guy....and I am with Jflix, except when I sense a major move......
Tony...
My technique is no different than it's ever been. What continues to change is the market. As the market goes through changes, my investing/trading adjusts accordingly.
Let me be clear and give detail here so to prevent argument or confusion.
Going back to when the market was going through it's ascention after the horrible meltdown I had a portfolio that consisted of 50% fixed securities and 50% equities. So, a solid HALF of my investments were steady-as-she-goes long-term. The remaining equities half was mostly long-term as well, and it was a mix of 80% stocks and 20% funds... making the TOTAL 50% fixed securities, 40% stocks, and 10% funds.
So, that left me with the majority 60% of my portfolio in long-term investments and 40% of my portfolio subject to my "timing" , although I was still able to pull the funds, but not as quickly, if I thought it was necessary.
On several occassions, I got "out" of the market, because the market warranted it, in my opinion at the time. I saw no reason to ride out any downturns, and I posted to that effect. The response I got was not supportive at the time, and I was challenged by many (some that don't even usually post here) that timing the market was impossible and that no one can do it successfully. Perhaps you remember the arguments that were thrown my way. The only argument I had in reply was the very success of my own actions, which I in fact demonstrated. I proved that the market can be timed, and I even explained how to do it.
Yet, the arguments still came at me, and the disbelief was still there, and I apparently had not proved that I knew what I was talking about. I had little credibility. Sure, I had an opinion, as does everyone, but I wanted to demonstrate more than just my opinion. I wanted to answer the challenge and prove that I was right about market timing. As you recall, over a series of "getting it right" most of the time, I finally proved that it IS indeed possible to get out of the market near the beginning of a downward period, and then return to the market again, thus avoiding some of the loss that would otherwise have impacted the bottom line of any portfolio.
Anyway, during those times, most of my portfolio remained the same, and the only changes were to the 40% equities, which I would sometimes pull out of the market and then go back in to avoid downturns whenever possible. I posted that I had about 3 dozen stocks and funds at the time, and I discussed some of them from time to time. I made small changes to the stocks once in a while, did some weeding and pruning, and I usually mentioned some of that activity. But, I was not trading on the hour. For the most part, I invested and traded lightly as the market dictated.
While the market was doing very well earliler this year, I cut down the percentage of fixed securities to half of what it was... from 50% to 25%, and I gave myself even more to invest in equities, because the market was behaving in a way that equities were a smart investment... at that time... so it made sense for me to increase the percentage of equities in my portfolio.
But then the market changed again, and I saw trouble coming, and I posted that I was expecting a correction. Most recently, I have been in a different mode, not because I have changed my technique, as you suggested, but because we have been in a long drawn out 7-week correction (that may or may not be over). So, as the market changed into a correction, I was certainly not about to "stay the course", and simply watch the value of my portfolio go down, down, down. Instead, as the correction got worse, I got out of the market, and started approaching it the only way I could, other than be totally out, and that was to trade in short time intervals, and a few little quick trades. Even then, most of my portfolio has been in cash most of the time, patiently waiting for the market's bleeding to stop. In the meantime, I have been looking for "bargains", and oversold stocks to buy at better prices and to re-enter the market when the correction is over, and make the proper shift into a longer-term approach, as the market improves... in other words, I will have made my adjustment to the changes in the market itself.
During this time of the correction, I decided to quit my broker, as everyone knows, and this complicated things a little, but it also has given me a new freedom to invest and trade very quickly. I really haven't done much with this, as it is soooo recent in the big picture, but it doesn't change my technique. It only gives me the total accountabiltiy that was not there before. I will still do what I have done. Invest as the market dictates. When the market is good, I will have money in equities, and leave them there steady-as-she-goes. When it corrects, I will try to get "out", and when it is acting crazy going up and down and up and down in a single day and during a week or more, then I will trade quickly and adjust to the market's quick changes. I still own my fixed securities (I transferred them as well), so what's changed?
I do not know if this clarifies my approach, because your statement in your post, which I quoted above, indicates to me that you might not understand what it is that I am doing.
(END OF PART ONE... CONTINUE TO PART TWO, NEXT POST...)
I adjust to the market. I make decisions based upon information that I research or discover. For example, if I learn about an electronic part that is going to be put inside Apple's iPads, then I will buy the stock of the manufacturer of that part, provided the other factors surrounding that company warrant such a purchase. When I discovered that a restaurant chain, such as Chipolte (CMG), was a real winner, I bought the stock... but I also determined when I wanted to sell it, and took profits without being greedy.
When I listen to the Fed, I make adjustments because I almost never fight the Fed. When I listened to the President during his early months in office, I wanted to get "out" of the market for a little while, because he so often said things that were negative for the stock market. If I learn that McDonalds is going to improve their menu, I might want to consider buying the stock. It's many things in real life that often give me ideas as to which stock to buy. I also do a lot of homework, and I pay attention. I listen to the talking heads, and I am amazed at how they all see things so differently... but once in a while, one of those heads will say something that rings a chord and it strikes me as being smart. The world is changing all the time, and the stock market is changing all the time to digest what the world is about. I do not feel comfortable to just "let stocks ride". It's the riskiest thing anyone can do in the modern stock market. In the old days, that worked... but it doesn't not work as effectively with todays' stock market.
At this time in history, if someone is seriously interested in a long-term "leave-it-alone" safe investment approach, I personally believe they would be better off with an investment in bonds or bond funds, and NOT invested in the stock market. To be truly successful in today's modern highly-computerized stock market, it requires serious attention and adjustments that most brokers are not willing to offer, and most individuals are not capable of handling, or simply do not have the necessary time.
TM
I wanted to be able to move faster and less expensively and not have to explain myself to my broker. To be able to take advantage of perceived opportunities, I then I opened the Scottrade account about 6 months ago.
I also do a lot of research and I have grown to have a lot of confidence in the folks at Motley Fool, though I don't always follow their advice.
I think the main difference between us is I have not been as successful with my strategy as you have. For the 6 months I have only managed to break about even with my equity trades. Some worked out and some did not, but I am still learning and I plan no major changes (other than to be more successful) to my strategy.
I also mentioned earlier that I bought a small house to rehab and sell as there are some good opportunities in my area. I hope to make a nice profit on this venture and it is almost ready to put on the market.
Currently I am about one third in equities, one third in bonds, and one third in cash. Thanks again for that good explanation.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Sure your techniques is basically the way you thoroughly describe it, and as the market and economy have changes , you have been right there....What I implied by my comment is that your changes have really gotten very quick...Certainly to try and take advantage of your perception, but remember the rest of us that are not trying to `time` the market on a daily basis are not as attuned to the nuances , consequently really aren`t in a position to give the recognition to a particularly good trade on your part...
Going back to the end of March beginning of April, when I filled up with gas, and posted I felt a slight slowing down ...Just could`t put my finger on it??....We all were pretty enumerated with Apple at the time....During the last couple of month, as the slow down began to be picked up by the media, everyone has now got some doubts about Apple ---to a degree---the patience is very lacking now...People want results...we all want a dream stock as Apple has been....Charlie has also made a monumental change in his life, and has , until recently, been a big supporter of Apple....He still has his eye on the ball, and if he re-purchased the stock at say this current level, and next week it was back to three forty, I would say the stock has hardly had a hick-up in this poor market...
I personally think Apple is still a `dream` stock, but it has to do it`s thing each quarter...earnings --products--and just good stuff...with a believable future...If by chance something doesn`t go just right, then all of us on this board has the same right as you , to change their mind, and take a different action than was anticipated a couple of months ago....What will make us all `sharpen` up is the bottom line.....Good Luck Tony
I am curious about your earlier post whereby you said your market investment is long-term, and similar to Len's... Len has a decent long-term investment in certain key stocks that he bought at a terrific price after the meltdown. Is your situation like that?
My apologies if I have not remembered correctly... but I ask ths because I was under the impression that you owned fixed securities... which would be significantly different, as they don't have the same kind of risk more typically associated with stocks, and don't require the same kind of attention to market swings.
TM
After that, right around the time Charlie made the heroic call to buy, I had purchased in lots , what was new to me ETF bond funds and junk eetf, and several bank preferred stocks---which were yielding in the high teens.....It was a hard call for me, and even to today I still own them....The siren song I have heard several times, but I am holding......Like Charlie, I could loose the entire investment, and it would definitely change my way of life, but as I earned the money I remember where I came from, so I can go right back......I was happy then and I would adjust and be happy again..
As I have done what I suggested for my `Godchildren` I don`t have debt---had it when I was starting out in life---and have a fair to a lot of money in real-estate..but as I do that for my pleasure, I have been fortunate not to be hurt by it.....When I first purchased the place in Miami and saw around thirty cranes all at work, I knew things were not going to turn out well....but certain properties are always in demand...That was more than five years ago, and I bet I mentioned that back then...So Jflix had his major money in some funds, which he leaves alone for the most part, and I hope he has done as well as I in the ETF which throw off a great stream every month, and also have risen probably fifty percent in value also...
A while ago I mentioned in one of the posts that I thought this was the time for anyone who wanted to better their life, to scout out a property that did that for them, and even though their existing home may be undervalued, that the new place was (as a percentage) worthwhile, as I think the real estate market will be vastly improved in a year...I don`t think there is any real rush, but a good house may not be around when things become more apparent...
Just to be very clear, any type of bond has risks that can be even greater than stocks....Most of us don`t know much about bonds, including yours truly, but the etf for bonds as well as different baskets of stocks offer a good chance for an investor who is not that savvy , or inclined to trade very often, as well as for a person who does trade a lot....With your sense of timing, I think you would be wise to investigate them, with a broad mind...By that I mean eg. If you or anyone thought agriculture was a good bet, then you could find etf that only were composed of those entities......You mentioned CAT the other day, and as I have had some dealings with them I have a bit of a different insight on that company (negative) but it is a really great one when priced right...I think there is an etf that along with cat and de, and several others offers a bit of a more watered down version of a pure play.....Look into some of those, and I personally would like to know your take as you know we all admire you....Just not when our feelings are at play..I know you would re word your post to Chariie as that isn`t you...Your Friend Tony
The stock market offers a wide assortment of stocks to trade and invest in... there are many profitable opportunities.
In addition, after much thought about my life's priorities... I realize I have spent too much valuable time here posting. I will make a balanced adjustment.
Good luck to all, and I will stay in touch... although at a reduced level.
TM
I placed that post at 4:48 AM... before sunrise... I was up early. As I indicated, I sold my AAPL shares at the open. The share price opened down $2.90... and in an electronic instant, I no longer owned any AAPL shares... fortunately only a small price to pay to be free of the stock, and well worth it.
Since then, the share price has been volatile and at one point plummeted as low as $310.50, down a whopping $9.76! :surprise:
I have no idea what the stock will do, but I am soooo glad to be done with it. The primary reasons being that it has been in a free-fall, and it has stolen too much of my attention away from other stocks that are potentially much better investments.
For those of you that "stay the course", I am hopeful that it all works out for you. I might buy some AAPL shares again one day... but not until I have adequately focused on finding other stocks that offer great upside potential, and not until I am convinced that the company's problems are behind it instead of in front of it.
Anyway, gotta go...
TM
High crude prices could send the global economy back into recession, said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
"My worry is that current oil prices are a major risk of the global economic recovery," Birol said in a speech Tuesday in Singapore. "I'm very worried that we could see the same movie that we saw in 2008."
Oil surged to $147 in July 2008, pinching consumer spending just as the global financial crisis undermined investor confidence. Crude traded at $33 by December of that year.
Regards,
OW
In fact, I bought shares of 19 stocks, and got back in the market (and AFTER buying 18 stocks and FINALLY putting together a new portfolio, I got rid of my stubborness and did a solid 180-degree turn regarding AAPL, and bought AAPL shares as well... it just seemed empty without AAPL in the list.
And the nice surprise is that nearly everything in the portfolio is up today... so far. And the AAPL seems to have been a very lucky purchase.
Good luck to ALL... whatever your strategies are.
TM
I know you are a happy guy today, and I`m happy for you.......Tony
Strange as it is to me, it seemed over the last few months, that as the price of oil rose, the stock market did likewise.....I guess if it were to really go to lofty heights, the economy would get hit, but right now it has come back to a degree, and the market is slowly factoring that in.....Tony
Man, I was away a few days and this place exploded. Tag, I d'ont think this economy is robust at all. How coud it be with housing and banking in such bad shape. I think what you have is folks who are again secure about their jobs are spending and want to. You have a favorable dollar for exports and you have a lean corporate America so incremental profis per dollar of revenue are very high. Hence I expect corporate earnings to be firmer than you do.
D'ont take posts so personally. But it's sometimes hard to see where you are going. A month ago you thought Apple was great and holding it rquired patience. Now you are out of it forever. Most of us d'ont trade that way. Botom line - and its frustrating at times - is Wall Street just overvalues certain companies and undervalues others and it's almost impossible to undersand why. I've lost a lot of opportunity by never buying Amazon. I can't realistically value that company the way Wall Street does, hence I never bought it. Your ins and outs amaze me. I've never tried to time the market so perfectly. As I once posted - if I think Apple is going to $400 it doesn't much matter to me if I got it at $320 or $325.
BTW... I DID buy AAPL near its low... I got lucky.
Bottom line... I was "out" for most of the correction, avoided the losses, and made a couple small mistakes while waiting mostly in cash, and am now "in" the market... but not completely yet. Moving slow and careful. So far, it's working out very well... Been lucky.
TM
I am not as happy as I would have been if I had bought more AAPL near the lows yesterday or even if I had bought it near the opening this morning. Oh well, "beggars can't be choosers".
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Great news if you're Apple.
Your rivals are immolating themselves. Your industry is settling down into a cosy duopoly.
And yet your stock is getting cheaper and cheaper. It's starting to enter value territory.
What's up with that?
Last week came the latest shocker from Research In Motion (RIMM). The BlackBerry maker's warning on sales and profits sent its stock plummeting to historic lows. RIM's problems are in danger of becoming terminal. So, too, are those of ailing Nokia (NOK) -- the once brilliant Finnish mobiles giant. Things are so bad there, it is turning to Microsoft (MSFT) for salvation. That's like an alcoholic turning to Charlie Sheen for help drying out. How bad can you get?
I know Apple (AAPL) fanatics like to think their company is some kind of miracle worker, the eighth wonder of the world. But its greatest asset has always been the competition. With enemies like Nokia and Research In Motion -- let alone Microsoft -- who needs friends?
James Cordwell, analyst at Atlantic Securities, expects Apple to sell 9 million iPads this quarter -- nearly three times as many as it did a year ago.
This industry should be crowded with competing products. But if you want to see Apple's rivals, walk into any computer store. Most of the tablets are a year late. Some feel like someone snapped off the upper half of a laptop. What a joke. RIMM's Playbook is a flop.
Old time book chain Barnes & Noble (BKS) managed to get a half decent Android tablet, the Nook Color, on the market by last November. The big tech companies are still doing pratfalls over each other.
Competence ought to be a given in the big leagues. But Apple keeps playing the Bad News Bears.
I am starting to wonder if the executives at all the other top technology companies secretly own fistfuls of Apple stock in their private portfolios. It's the only explanation that makes any sense. Why else would, say, Microsoft have acted the way it has? Do you have a better explanation?
(Imagine what would have happened if Steve Jobs had allowed Apple to make an iPhone with a proper, physical keyboard. Jobs' weird hostility to keyboards is the only thing that has saved his competitors from complete oblivion.)
The collapse of most of the competition is rapidly turning the mobiles market into a duopoly: Apple versus Google's Android.
A duopoly is much better for investors than a free-for-all. And this situation may be even better for Apple than many realize. That's because Android doesn't really matter to Google (GOOG). It's a sideshow. So Google will never care anywhere near as much about updating and improving Android as Apple does about its own operating system.
After all, for Apple this is a matter of life and death.
It reminds me of the difference between being "involved" in a project and being "committed." A businessman from Catalonia once described the difference to me. "Think of a plate of ham and eggs," he said. "The chicken is involved. But the pig? The pig is committed!" Apple is committed.
But while the picture is looking bright, Apple is suddenly not getting much respect on Wall Street. All of a sudden, the world's most worshipped stock isn't getting any respect on Wall Street. It's fallen more than 10% in the last few months, even while hot new tech stocks have been flying.
Apple has come down from $363 in February to $316 Monday. Furthermore, that masks the fact that the company is sitting on a ton of net cash. At the end of the last quarter, cash, securities and other liquid assets exceeded liabilities by $51 billion, or around $55 a share. This may top $60 by the end of this quarter.
So the cash-free stock price -- the enterprise value of the business -- may only be around $260.
That's barely 10 times forecast earnings of $25 for the fiscal year ending in September. It's just nine times next year's forecast earnings. And it's only around 2.3 times this year's sales.
These are value-stock levels.
It's true that Apple boasts very high profit margins, and competition ought to be bringing those margins way down. Economists will tell you high margins rarely last. But with this kind of "competition," you never know.
The last time I urged people to buy Apple stock was in the crash of 2008-2009, when it hit $85. Later, I turned way too cautious, assuming -- wrongly -- that the competition would, er, compete. (It was still the sensible assumption.) Today, I'm nervous about the stock market overall, and this may be a bad time to take on risk. Nonetheless, it's hard to argue Apple is an expensive stock these days. Especially when you look at who it's competing with.
It wasn't long ago that I posted that I was hoping to see AAPL shares go down to $320 - $325, so I could buy a ton. But when it dropped a bunch more, it kind of spooked a lot of us, not knowing where it was heading.
Well, as it turns out I got much luckier than that... but, I'd say it still looks attractive at $325 if you have a longer-term (two-year) perspective... probably make a 25%-50% ROI.
Good luck.
TM
I am a happy camper today.
TM
I think this is gunk. First of all, oil/gas prices have sold off a lot the past couple months. Secondly, i do not believe that the "forces" (such as the Saudis) that control these things are likely to push oil prices to extremely lofty levels any time soon. I don't think they want another Global economic collapse.
Money Anxiety Index Latest Indicator of a Double-Dip CNBC.com | June 21, 2011 | 01:52 PM EDT
Where there is misery there also usually is anxiety.
Such is the case with two economic indicators, both showing conditions that have deteriorated to levels not seen in as much as 30 years.
The latest indicator to ring up trouble is the Money Anxiety Index, which uses traditional economic metrics as well as other factors to gauge the level of consumers' worry regarding their personal financial conditions.
According to the May figures, the MAI is not only at its highest level in 30 years at 91.9 but also two months away from indicating another dip into recession. In the past, five straight months of increases in the index often signaled recession.
“If this trend will continue for a couple more months the likelihood of a double-dip recession is very high,” Dan Geller, chief research officer for Money Anxiety, said in an interview. “Pretty much the main reason is uncertainty about the prospects of an economic recovery.”
The trend in the lesser-followed MAI comes on the heels of the Misery Index—a bit more well-known of a trend indicator—rising to levels not seen since May 1983. The Misery Index adds the unemployment and annualized inflation rate and currently stands at 12.7.
Both gauges are indicative of burgeoning problems for an economy still trying to find what the pros call “escape velocity” despite trillions in stimulus, bailouts and easy money.
“People feel it in their personal life, in the increasing Consumer Price Index, the unemployment situation, housing,” Geller said. “Overall, all those conditions pretty much lead to a lack of confidence in the recovery.”
TM
I will share one of them with you now.
This great company was recently the victim of a massive cyber hack attack... and it's stock was over punished as a result... leaving a huge rebound on the table just for the taking.
I own $50,000 worth of this stock. And that stock is a company we have all loved for many years...
SONY. Symbol SNE
Tremendous media empire, gaming, computers, fantastic precision electronic gadgets, a new line of awesome cameras, and some of the best TVs. A cutting edge company we all know very well.
Check the chart and info on SNE.
In case you are interested... and good luck.
TM
I think there are some big bets on banks such as C, BAC and JPM that their stock prices would recover soon.
I think there are some big bets on banks such as C, BAC and JPM that their stock prices would recover soon.
I agree with you. But, "when"?
TM
...even if only a small portion of that potential is realized, the gains could be quite significant.
EDIT:
GS, What's your strategy for the financials? Also, I want to mention to you that in addition to SONY, I added TOYOTA to my latest portfolio, and you might want to also look into Toyota. Realize that Toyota took a temporary hit due to the Japanese catastrophe, but as that situation gets better, Toyota should rebound nicely, IMO.
TM
Agree with you on BAC. I can make a killing it it move on 1-2 dollars up.
I have not looked into Toyota. I am too busy trying to figure out the potential for Ford .
edit: C is behaving like it would go back to 45 soon.
I did include Ford in this latest group of stocks, and I think it is a "buy" at this level. I see an easy 10% - 20% gain in the ROI if purchasing the shares outright, and maybe more... especially if you consider Ford's international growth expectations.
Toyota is attractive because it is so logical that the dip was due to two circumstances that will have less of an impact over time... first was the huge recalls, second was the earthquake/tsunami/ nuclear disaster... And Toyota has been in the process of resuming production which took a terrible hit.
So, I see a positive direction ahead for Toyota. Besides, their stock symbol is TM... so that's got to be a good thing.
TM
EDIT: FWIW... If you are interested in a speculative stock that can offer quick and significant percentage gains, it is A123 Systems Inc (symbol AONE). This stock can pop high percentage returns in a single day, and then sell-off, only to do it again at some point not-too-far down the road. And, it's in a business that could legitimately take off. It's risky, of course, but when played right, it can be a huge money maker... in case you are interested.
AAPL wants more enterprise customers and RIMM has loyal users. MSFT has partnered with Nokia and is swallowing Skype. Hmm, interesting idea.
It seems that these market and economic conditions are causing me to be a day-trader. :surprise: :surprise:
TM
Short Term Investor is the preferred title.
Now please don't misconstrue the above that I believe we will have a "robust" economy that TM was "accusing" a few of us as projecting. On the contrary, as I stated before, it will be slow growth but growth nevertheless. Thus, I still believe that the low in this correction was pretty much already seen. I did nothing in the market again today, but if AAPL (yes, I admit I'm "in love" with it:) ) sells off down into the teens again, I will consider adding some more.
Charlie...
First...
Your post is full of vinegar... it is bitter towards me, and I am disappointed in you for its tone.
Your use of the word "accusing" is mean-spirited, IMO... that's a negative way to characterize what was simply my distinction between those of us that seemed to me to have seen the economy as being more robust than others.
Ya' know, Charlie, when you first posted that you had felt rubbed the wrong way by my posting... I never expressed in response that I personally thought you were being too sensitive, and making a mountain out of a molehill... instead I was gracious enough to APOLOGIZE.
So... please chill out!!
Secondly,
Bernanke may have said that the economy's slow growth is in part due to the gas prices, but he also said that THEY DID NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND what was behind the slow economic growth. And that was a very dangerous statement... because it demonstrated and admitted a lack of understanding and a lack of control of the economic situation, and it conceded that the FED is disconnected from reality to some unknown extent. So, while cheaper gas is a good thing, there are apparently factors that are unknown? How's that supposed to help investor confidence?
TM
That`s pretty much what I think and further (as Jflix said) `those that are secure in their position in life, are spending`.....The people I know that do not have savings, are working and gainfully employed. This market --for me--just doesn`t embolden me to be involved to any meaningful extent.....Just some of the same old same old, week after week
The market is often a reflection of the economy... and perhaps more accurately a reflection of investor's perceptions of the economy... all combined, rolled up, and put together.
And, unfortunately, and part of the problem... there aren't nearly enough folks in the USA that are as "secure in their position in life", as those of us here that are much more fortunate. Too many folks are in a bad way. Waayyy toooo many. There are sooo many homes and jobs lost it is practically a crime against humanity. I can't help but to feel sad for the way the overall state of affairs has impacted so many. My heart is too big to just act like everything is just fine.
IMO, when so many of our fellow brothers and sisters are hurting... we are ALL hurting.
Regardless of our views, the market has made a bold statement... and the bottom line is that the market has gone negative for almost two solid months... agree with it or not... it is what it is.
TM
First...
Your post is full of vinegar... it is bitter towards me, and I am disappointed in you for its tone.
Your use of the word "accusing" is mean-spirited, IMO... that's a negative way to characterize what was simply my distinction between those of us that seemed to me to have seen the economy as being more robust than others.
TM,
In NO WAY am I trying to be mean spirited towards you or anyone else for that matter. If you note, I had the word "accusing" in quotes (in other words, I was just joking around). But the bottom line is that no one here is predicting a "robust economy" for a quite a while. I APOLOGIZE if you think I am mean spirited towards you. I am anything but mean spirited.
Bernanke may have said that the economy's slow growth is in part due to the gas prices, but he also said that THEY DID NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND what was behind the slow economic growth. And that was a very dangerous statement...
I don't consider it that dangerous of a statement just because they did not fully understand what else contributed to the slow economic growth. No one can understand every little nuance that goes into the economy. Remember, no two economists are ever in total agreement just as no two meteorologists see the forecast exactly the same. I honestly believe, that we will start to see better economic indicators over the next month or two. Gas price is a MAJOR factor in my optimism for better numbers down the road. The average "Joe Blow" out there does not need much of an excuse to spend more money. BTW, the rebuilding of Japan will also help a lot.
I believe the economy is sitting on a fence, to some extent. I think that there is a natural tendency towards growth in our country... in other words, I think growth is inherent in our capitalistic consumer society. That said, it can be undermined by bad policies and by bad pressures from the banking sector, the energy sector and political interference, as well as other factors. Government too often IS the problem itself.
Anyway, I do indeed expect things to improve, but not as quickly this summer as it will this fall and winter. I have said for quite some time that I think November will show us a big improvement, and I think Tony agreed with me on that one, if I recall correctly.
Anyway, niether of us owns AAPL at this point, as I sold it all to make some quick $$. So, we both need to find ourselves a good entry point.
TM
I have no disagreement whatsoever with your statement above.
Anyway, niether of us owns AAPL at this point, as I sold it all to make some quick $$. So, we both need to find ourselves a good entry point.
Oops!! Where did you get the impression that I don't own any AAPL now? If you saw my post from earlier this afternoon, I said that if AAPL were to sell off below $320 I will consider buying more shares. I also said that "yes, I am married to it". I did not get out of any shares I have been purchasing since it was about $331 (first entry point). My cheapest entry point was at about $320-321 last Friday I believe.
EDIT: Oops on me as well. I thought I posted a message earlier this afternoon (right after market closed) from my iPad. But somehow it never made it. I have no idea what happened. It must have been the iPad
Speaking of AAPL, here is a new article on it talking about the iPhone5:
Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/apple-said-to-prepare-faster-iphone-for- - - -september.html
In less than 40 years India will overtake the US as the world’s second-largest trading nation, pushing today's superpower into third place and Europe in to the little leagues, according to a new report by Citi.
“According to our projections, world trade in goods and services will grow from $37 trillion in 2010 to $149 trillion in 2030 and $371 trillion in 2050,” Citigroup’s William Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a research note released on Thursday.
“But at least as interesting as the growth in world trade that we forecast are the changes in its composition that we expect over the course of the next four decades, with today's emerging markets set to gain much more prominence in world trade relative to advanced economies,” they added.
The report predicts that trade between emerging markets will overtake that between advanced economies in just four years in a clear sign that the world’s major economies of Europe and North America are set to lose relative importance to the global economy.
The big winner according to the report will be Asia. “Developing Asia accounted for 24 percent of world trade in 2010, but its share is expected to reach 42 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2050,” said Buiter and Rahbari.
This will be more or less in line with the world’s population and see Europe and North America’s importance to global trade ebb over the next four years.
“Western Europe on the other hand, in 2010 by far the largest region in terms of trade with 34 percent of world trade — already down from 48 percent in 1990 — is expected to account for 19 percent of world trade by 2030 and 15 percent by 2050,” they wrote.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43506564
TM
I got cold feet due to the overall market behavior this morning and I did not buy any more AAPL.
Edit: I think Ford is about to take off
Will look into Ford again when I get back home.
TM