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You have a good weekend also.
TM
Is IBM a Stock Worth Owning?
Cramer makes the point well.
Surely Jim Cramer loves us here on this forum as much as we love him on Mad Money.
Maybe Jim will honor us with a post here at some point, or mention us on his show... for all our never-ending dedication to investing and trading wisely in the stock market.
Re: the link you posted... Jim Cramer has made very good points on several occassions about NOT leaving your money in the stock market unattended, and how dangerous, risky and irresponsible that is. The nature of long-term isn't exactly what it used to be, and he has clarified that very well, and I agree with the more current perspective that applies to today's modern stock market. In fact, there was a guy on CNBC this past week (maybe Fast Money, but I'm not sure?) that made one of the best cases regarding trading vs. long-term that investing I've ever heard. I was listening to the CNBC satellite radio feed from the live TV show while driving in my car, so I didn't get a chance to record it, or I would have. It was brilliant.
Pointing out stocks that perform well over the long-term isn't the same as advocating an approach to the market that suggests "invest it, and forget it". I wish Jim had made that clear distinction, because I don't think he believes in looking away from investments, even those like IBM. There are times to sell... and repurchase... even stocks like IBM... and I am convinced that Jim Cramer would have said so, had the question come up.
As I see it, the bigger point is about the impressive long-term nature of the company itself, rather than the investment approach.
TM
That would be awesome...
Here's more news about the economic slowdown...
Forecasts for Growth Drop, Some Sharply
Published: Saturday, 25 Jun 2011 | 9:33 AM ET
By: Motokoa Rich
The New York Times
A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.
Two months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.
Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in April and is now down to just 2.1 percent for this quarter.
Both these firms, well respected in their analysis, have cut their forecasts for the second half of the year as well. Then this week, the Federal Reserve downgraded its projections for the full year, to under 3 percent growth. It started the year with guidance as high as 3.9 percent.
Two years into the official recovery, the economy is still behaving like a plane taxiing indefinitely on the runway. Few economists are predicting an out-and-out return to recession, but the risk has increased, with the health of the American economy depending in part on what is really “transitory.”
During the first press conference in the central bank’s history two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke used the word to describe factors — including supply chain disruptions after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and rising oil prices — that were restraining economic growth in the first half of the year.
Earlier this week, Mr. Bernanke confessed that “some of these headwinds may be stronger and more persistent than we thought,” adding, “we don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting.”...
rest of the article here... link title
Hard to be optimistic lately.
TM
Additionally, I still feel that for the market in general, we have already either reached the low (or very close to the low) on June 15 I believe.
I could just scream.
I have been sooo overwhelmed with relatives that I have not been able to really do much of anything worth a darn for over a week. The relatives are now on their way back home... but the timing of their visit couldn't have been worse, as we finally started to see the positive turnaround that we have waited soooo long and patiently for... but I was not able to spend the kind of time I needed to invest/trade the way I had hoped.
To have missed out on today's action is just sooooo frustrating. I should have known this was going to happen. I could have done very well today, as I really had my eye on a number of stocks, including Ford, and today was the day I had been waiting for... but I couldn't take advantage.
I think I'm going to go pour a couple of cold ones. To be honest, I'm really ticked off.
TM
The current upswing is a burst of energy from light volume, and is essentially based on nothing substantial, IMO... other than the decline in oil prices. I expect it will help the market for a while, but I still own no stocks... and I don't want to own any stocks long-term yet.
At this point, I only want to day trade, and at the end of the session, I don't want to own ANY shares. I am not convinced that the worst is behind us quite yet.
And that's a reason that I agree with with warning that Tony posted to Charlie. I think Tony has a keen sense that this market may still be on thin ice... although I am not sure that's his opinion and would like him to clarify for ALL of us... but if that is his opinion, it is one that I share.
TM
Tony,
I don't know for sure why AAPL has been acting real well lately. However, I'm guessing that traders are starting to once again get excited about the new Apple products like the iPhone5 (September release), a new generation iPad later this fall or early winter, a deal for iPhone4 to be sold in China, etc. Plus, people are probably starting to think big about the next quarterly report.
I do not have a huge position on AAPL these days Tony. I am usually pretty careful anyway. I never bet the farm on these things. My philosophy at this stage in my life is that if I cannot afford to lose my investment in a certain stock(s), I don't invest at all. Most of my assets are in interest bearing/"good" yield accounts. Having said all this, I HATE losing in the markets (either commodities or stocks) and I usually don't. BTW, my comments might sound like I am real wealthy. Trust me, I am not (live comfortably yes, but wealthy, no). This is why, I am disciplined to be careful.
As I stated on several occasions, I believe that we have either seen the low (June 15) or if it makes a new low, I don't think it will be by much. My inclination is that the low for this correction is already in place. However, I believe, it will still be volatile for several weeks if not longer. My optimism that the low has been reached stems from 3 factors: 1. Crude oil/Rbob prices have seen a rather large sell-off and consumers will start spending more; 2. Japan is starting to recover; 3. I think the Greek debt crisis is starting to simmer a bit. At least the first two factors take some time (typical lag) to take effect and they are now starting to do so. Maybe my reasoning is simplistic, but they don't call me "simple Charlie" for nothing
Good reasoning, but allow me to take this opportunity to put our recent misunderstanding aside, and to reach out to you and post this to you directly. I just want to encourage you to be very careful. This is a light summer bounce that has little support, IMO. When the big boys return, I think you could be in for a big surprise.
I don't own any stocks at all right now, but if I did, I would actually sell into these latest rallies.
I hope your optimism is warranted, but as much as I would love to agree with you, I just can't seem to wrap my head around it. And, just so you know... I would actually prefer to be wrong about this... but unless something really terrific happens for our economy, and globally, I still think the fall is going to be a much tougher environment for the market.
I also think the market demonstrates a capability to swing much too easily in any direction based upon a variety of news reports or just about anything that might happen... its instability makes it quite vulnerable and risky. IOW, it's my opinion that this market has no backbone at this time.
Anyway... good luck to you.
TM
I don't own any stocks at all right now, but if I did, I would actually sell into these latest rallies.
TM, my friend, your advice is always given careful consideration by me. But, as I stated above, I don't have a huge position in AAPL. I own no other stocks on the E-Trade accounts. In the broker accounts, I have a mixed bag of stocks, but again, these accounts are not huge. I will likely do nothing in the broker accounts and my thinking right now is that I am going to place a stop on AAPL below $330 on the E-Trade accounts.
You could very well be correct on your feelings about the market, but this is why they call it "gambling". Only time will tell.
Do you have anything to enlighten us about Greece?? any old friends over there that give you a feel for what is going on?
All the Greek people I know are a savvy lot, and one in particular is a brilliant accountant, really has a great grasp of tax accounting...I haven`t kept up with him to my detriment...Tony
Mere mortals need not apply.
I don't really have any "insider" info on Greece. All my family and friends are in the States now. However, I do hear from some friends here who have relatives over there that they are suffering big time economically. Greeks (those living in Greece) are not use to working their tails off to make a living. It has been this way for hundreds of years. Thus, they are extremely upset now that they need to change their ways of thinking and living.
Tony... after I read your post I thought about it for a minute or two, and then realized that you are quite right about this. EVERY Greek friend I have ever had has been very intelligent and ultra successful.
And... I have almost NEVER laughed harder than I did with one of them in particular. Good memories, and I also have neglected to keep up with him... which is clearly my loss as well.
TM
My take is that some really good news could send the market a lot higher right now and some catastrophe could send it crashing down. Who knows?
July should be very interesting !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Well it seems that way, doesn't it?
But yesterday and today were interesting exceptions, and perhaps a positive sign,. The market performed rather well in spite of the bad news of Greece, although the market is likely looking ahead and expecting a solution soon. If anything were to jeopardize that anticipated solution, then BOOM, you can expect the market will tank.
Even as Charlie posted that he thinks "the Greek debt crisis is starting to simmer a bit"... consider that his view is probably shared by a large number of investors, so if anything were to go wrong with that expectation which is already factored in, then the bottom would drop out of the market... because, once again, the solution to Greece is already factored in.
TM
You better believe Greeks know how to party and have a great time. In fact, this past weekend my wife and I attended a Greek fraternal convention in Minneapolis. Among other fun events, on Saturday evening all the Greeks at the convention took a boat cruise up the Mississippi River and back. The food was awesome and the Greek dancing was impressive on the boat. Btw, the Greek fraternal organization is called AHEPA (American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association). It was founded back in 1923 in Atlanta partly due to the discrimination by the KKK against the Greeks and others at that time. You can find out more info by looking up AHEPA on Google.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
YES!!! You are right on the money GS.
I am in the midst of a huge play on BAC.
I am trying to decide if I should take short-term, or hold it for a while and go for the deal of the century.
TM
EDIT: I just answered my own question... I couldn't resist healthy gains, and as the stock goes through its normal ups and downs, I will buy it again on the next significant dip.
EDIT 2: Don't forget that President Obama is going to speak shortly, which might actually be an opportunity to buy, if we get that typical dip when he speaks. No way to know for sure, but I'll be on the lookout for it, just in case. Let's watch the market chart at 11:30 Eastern Time, 8:30 Pacific Time, and see if it dips.
Without a doubt!
BAC is a rare opportunity.
BTW, I am impressed the way this market has shown strength during the Greece situation, but even the way it stayed steady when Obama gave his press conference. Very impressive.
But, that said, I fully expect the market give up some of these recent gains... if only, at the very least, to catch its breath.
To tell you the truth, I am about to catch my breath as well... I made 90 trades on BAC this morning in under 4 hours... playing the movement... resulting in 45 total gains. The "movement" of BAC today has been like the perfect storm, but I mean that in a good way... I think I am done for the day.
TM
As usual, I agree with you. I did not like the AAPL action today for the first time in a couple weeks I believe. Therefore, I placed a stop after it rallied back up a little at $332.97 on my E-Trade accounts. I'm sure I'll get stopped out tomorrow morning the way it acted today. But if I do, I will still be in good shape with some profits. Then, I'll start all over again
I've hit five doubles on C in the past 3-4 weeks trading both Puts and Calls. I am already dizzy with that much actions.
I've hit five doubles on C in the past 3-4 weeks trading both Puts and Calls. I am already dizzy with that much actions.
Puts, calls and options trading in general takes a special skill that I don't feel I can do well enough. Unfortunately, as a result, I trade the actual shares, buying and selling over and over again... flipping them for a quick gain. There is always the possibility that I could get caught owning a whole truckload of shares that I don't want if the price were to drop dramatically within seconds after I purchase them... and as you know that is a very real possibility. Also, I don't get the same kind of leverage that you do. Your skills can make you a fortune if used well.
Those guys on CNBC FAST MONEY impress me with their skills.
TM
Even though it seems I am now a short-term trader, my priority is to stay true to my original technique... which is this: long-term investing that is subject to pulling in and out subject to significant market fluctuations.
So... after all my gazillion short-term trades yesterday, I did manage to re-activate my long-term portfolio again... and make the necessary purchases. I re-invested 14 stocks in my long-term investment portfolio. They are primarily the very same stocks I have been invested in long-term all along, subject to market corrections. They are in addition to my bonds, of course, which I almost NEVER touch.
So... just to clarify... even though I have definitely added a new short-term dimension to my investing/trading... my primary investing strategy is still longer-term.
TM
EDIT: Take a serious look at BAC right now and take advantage. Rare opportunity of a lifetime.
Gov. Jerry Brown has signed into law California's tax on Internet sales through affiliate advertising which will immediately cut small-business website revenue 20% to 30%, experts say.
The bill, AB 28X, takes effect immediately. The state Board of Equalization says the tax will raise $200 million a year, but critics claim it will raise nothing because online retailers will end their affiliate programs rather than collect the tax.
Amazon has already emailed its termination of its affiliate advertising program with 25,000 websites. The letter says, in part:
(The bill) specifically imposes the collection of taxes from consumers on sales by online retailers - including but not limited to those referred by California-based marketing affiliates like you - even if those retailers have no physical presence in the state.
We oppose this bill because it is unconstitutional and counterproductive. It is supported by big-box retailers, most of which are based outside California, that seek to harm the affiliate advertising programs of their competitors. Similar legislation in other states has led to job and income losses, and little, if any, new tax revenue. We deeply regret that we must take this action.
I know two retired people that sell used books through Amazon. They collect taxes on books sold in the state. So I don't see how this will do anything but harm the 25,000 little retail businesses that are out of business as of this morning.
Hopefully the lessons learned will not be so catostrophic. I don't know if ANYTHING can get them to realize that it is better to expand business instead of burden it. There is something fundamentally wrong with their views, and even though they mean well, they have a very warped perspective. And, unfortunately, we all suffer as a result.
TM
Well, guess what? I got stopped out early in the session this morning as it hit my stop at $332.97. However, the next tick or two was obviously higher and my fill was $333.33. Of course, it has been trading higher than this much of the day today. But, it still does not act very well since yesterday compared to the market in general. Thus, I am not too upset at this point (made some $dough). We'll see what tomorrow and next week brings.
Another thing that happens is you get to think about how you would feel if the stock went that low, and further just how large a position you would feel comfortable with.........I know the feeling of how one feels with a loss--no matter the size-- Just a thought...Tony
I'm not enamored with open orders. I like to watch the market news on a daily basis and act accordingly. What happens if I have an open order to buy AAPL at $307 but some terrible news comes out and I don't want to own it even at that price? What if I sort of forget that I have an open order to there and the news makes the stock collapse to $290? Btw, I agree with you that the stock could very well be a quarter by quarter type of behavior.
There are just a lot of uncertainties lurking around right now, and a trader doesn`t have to worry about a longer time frame...The earnings for apple are already `in the bag` for this quarter, and I bet Jflix ,with his knowledge of accounting, could tell you what they would be for this quarter and next also if he were the CFO...so anyone can make a gamble and either be right or wrong in just a matter of minutes if that is the game you want to play.....The open order is just a suggestion for this stock at this time , for the above reasons.....Only a week or so ago it was almost at three hundred, so there is a reason it is almost back to three forty.....I`l just watch and wait personally....Tony
Re Apple - trading at a low multiple as Apple does would lessen my anxiety over an open order. I'd worry a lot though about any open order on a high multiple stock as they are usually priced to perfection and anything rattling can cause a precipitous drop that it will never get its multiple back from. Then you are stuck with what is now a high price on a stock that seemingly had a low one when you put the order/bid in.
Speaking of high multiple stocks - for BIDU owners:
http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/06/30/baidu-time-to-take-profits/?partne- - r=yahootix
BTW, I'm now in the initial process of building a strong position on BAC, buying strategically at each low. It's my belief that BAC has been battered to near death, and that its share price is ridiculously low, and there is now enormous upside potential ahead for BAC (and financials in general).
What's your take on this? Be specific as you can. Thanks Len.
TM
Nice perky market....Tony
Quite a week indeed. Volume so light with the July 4th holiday upon us. Who would have thought the market would have rebounded so well? I think many are surprised and pleased. But, what about moving forward?
What happens next week... after the 4th is behind us, and after a week's worth of huge gains... what is most likely to happen? Should the market continue with its rally or settle back and catch its breath?
Either way, I am going to catch my breath, and I am positioning myself out of the market going into Monday's open, with only a few special exceptions. I can always go back in, in a split second, but I am going to be cautious just in case the market has gotten ahead of itself.
TM
Beaches here are already PACKED! :shades:
TM
I would like to wish all of you a great 4th of July weekend. Even if you are a Democrat. :shades:
Do July 4th festivities make you Republican?
Thanks for the well wishes and back at you
You know the market....Too much one way then too much the other.....It`s anyone`s guess on a week to week or day to day basis....Earnings are going to become more and more talked about and anticipated --going forward---so my guess would be firmness overall.....I don`t think the volume is meaningful during the Summer , and I bet it is moderate through August....then we have the early fall leading up to October, which I bet the current market is getting ready for right now...Can`t have too much of a fall as the election will then take center stage, and the brokers will loose too many clients to the new investment products that are gaining traction---if the market is too violent----Just some thoughts that could and might change depending on who disappoints with earnings.....Tony