Also don't forget that the dems had to use a parliamentary trick to even pass Obamacare. One that had never been used before and was referred to as the "nuclear option", where only a simple majority was enough to pass rather than a two thirds majority which is what it should have been. They will probably try to pull another fast one.
The only deal that has been passed that would prevent a downgrade was the original cut, cap, and balance bill that the dems killed forthwith.
If anything else passes we will still be downgraded and the spending will continue to increase. I am beginning to think that the best deal now may be no deal. That will, at least, stop the spending.
Something had to be done to prevent a real economic contagion, but it should have had more rules about executive compensation and perks, and should have had sharp punishments for the people who made the malaise - as it was a manmade calamity.
Taxpayers are never in the picture. Americans love to delude themselves about the real role they play in national political leadership. Votes are symbolic, little more.
Born on home plate Donald has as much presidential potential as the average housecat. Which is about equal to the leadership we've had in the past quarter century.
I am still curious as to which sectors of the financial industry will profit from a credit downgrade, and how they lobby.
There are investors that like to short the market. Before I moved to SoCal, I had a Greek friend in NorCal. He was a Republican "bear", incredibly wealthy, and celebrated the first time gas prices hit $4/gallon... saying how it would hopefully keep a lot of the poor drivers off the roads & into public transportation, making it better for the rest of us. Wow, that was quite a statement.
There are ways to hugely profit from a market collapse. If it turns out that there is no agreement, then I will personally be purchasing shares of QID. I came very close to doing so during this past week, but I never did... and in hindsight, I should have.
Unfortunately, there are many people in powerful positions that would have little concern over a default and what might happen to average Americans. We are expendible.
I had never heard of that one before. Looking over the last 5 years I would say it may be a great choice for a market downturn. It hit $450 at the crash of 08. Shorting is something I really don't know enough about to try.
Where you and I part on welfare is believing we should feed anyone that is hungry. That is anti Biblical.. You don't work, you don't eat, if you are able. If you would like to debate that as a Greek Orthodox I am sure it can happen just not on this thread. I refuse to go along with the enslaving of the masses by the Democrats.
Now I've heard everything. You have got to be kidding me. Feeding of the poor is anti Biblical? Let's see now. Jesus did say that "what you do for the least of my brethren, you do for me", correct?
Why do some of you say that the Dems are not willing to compromise (Reid plan has no tax revenues)? Don't you think that some would like to increase taxes on the very rich and the huge oil companies instead these huge companies getting huge subsidies? This is one of the reasons that the son of the governor of IA (Republican) told me this morning that he cannot stand Michelle Bachmann and her cohorts.
Btw, what would you want to see slashed? Medicare, Social Security, veterans benefits, education benefits, etc, etc? You would probably be the first to complain if your Social Security check was trimmed.
Gary... don't mess with it... unless you KNOW the market will collapse. Very dangerous trading. ANY upward move will wipe you out. I only mentioned it in case we get a total breakdown in Washington.
I just saw the Republican press conference. Nothing substantive at all, but major suggestions that an agreement will happen.
Whatever happens, it's important to be ready. If there is an agreement BEFORE the market opens, then it will be difficult to take advantage of the outcome because the biggest investors will be able to put all their chips in place BEFORE the market opens. As usual, the game is rigged. They will WIN no matter what happens... while the rest of us try to chase crumbs.
Just listen to Pelosi. She's as far left as any TP member is far right. In her hands we'd run a $100 trillion deficit as she just spends and spends with no concern of revenue. I've read things about her that are scary and just look at her theathrics recently re the debt ceiling
Pelosi can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. I don't care for her either. But the Dems will have a compromised plan this weekend and she will go along with it. The problem is, will enough moderate Republican House members go along because obviously the Tea Party will not?
Starting from the end and moving back. I would expect a cut in SS & Medicare to balance the budget. The money you and I contributed to SS was pilfered and spent. Leaving us with a ponzi scheme to cover what was promised us. I am not sure how cutting what is owed SS recipients is any different than cutting what we owe in interest to China and Japan.
You have to know the Reid plan is a joke that they never plan to vote on. It did not cut real spending. It was just a trick to raise the debt ceiling and continue spending as usual.
Jesus did say that "what you do for the least of my brethren, you do for me"
Jesus was clearly referring to those in the faith. Which we and I do on a very regular basis. It was also common to leave some of the grain in the field for the poor to gather and use. The key there is GATHER. Not have it handed to the poor in the form of an ATM card that can be used to buy booze, drugs and vacation cruises.
2 Thessalonians 3:10 For even when we were with you, we gave you this rule: “The one who is unwilling to work shall not eat.”
That should be posted at every welfare office. We are encouraging laziness with our welfare system.
Pelosi can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. I don't care for her either.
There are dozens that are as radical or worse than Pelosi in the Democrat ranks. Thankfully we are rid of two of them. Weiner and Wu. They should go on the road with a show. Perverts R/us the Weiner & Wu show.
Any increase in debt should include REAL SIZABLE cuts in all areas of the Federal Government. If not now, when. They won't make any cuts once a debt ceiling increase is passed. Reagan learned that one the hard way.
>There are dozens that are as radical or worse than Pelosi in the Democrat ranks.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio is another.
Interestingly one of the balking Tea Party electees may find himself without a home in Ohio due to his recalcitrance at working with the Republican leadership, Boehner. Ohio needs to lose two districts and his likely will be dissolved .
As parents, we have to prepare and encourage our kids to take care of themselves and be independent one day. If, instead we show them that there is some sort of situation in place that will take care of them without effort on their own, they will have an option that is unproductive and DEPENDENT upon that very situation.
Unfortunately, there are sooooo many that take advantage of the entitlement programs, and it has been PROVEN that there is also a MASSIVE level of FRAUD.
The saddest part of all of is that there are many fellow Americans that have legitimate needs. They are not able to secure work no matter how hard they try. Many of them have families they need to support. Some of them have been able to secure horrible jobs, and they know those jobs are better than nothing, but that is still very sad. Again, there are some that legitimately can NOT get work because there are more people than there are jobs. It's a mathematical fact due to our unhealthy economy. So, it's simply NOT their fault.
Now to get to the deeper analysis here, the entire entitlement problem is made MUCH worse when we have wreckless spending, and not enough jobs. It feeds itself and grows worse. More wreckless spending, and high taxation upon business makes our economy worse, and the worse the economy gets the more fellow Americans become desperate.
Also, the wide open borders allow a flood of illegal aliens that come here and steal jobs from our fellow Americans... and employers seem all too willing to hand those jpbs over to illegal immigrants that are willing to work at a very different (much lower!!!) wage scale than our society tries to aspire to. Even if those immigrants become legal, they are still willing to work for much less, and that strains our employment picture. The giant corporations don't mind paying lower wages, and if they can't do it here in America they take the jobs overseas. This is not the fault of "lazy" Americans. It's the fault of not having a terrific business climate right here in America.
The ONLY way to fix all of this is to control our borders, and to create an economic climate that is incredibly compelling to the establishment of businesses and to the growth of businesses. This is done by reducing and eliminating many burdens upon businesses, and making the United States one of the best places to do business in the world. This means lower corporate taxes, fewer unecessary regulations, incentives for hiring employees and incentives for growth. The result would be an explosion of growth, a massive increase in jobs, a massive increase in tax revenues from all those employees, an ability to meet a balanced budget, and an increase in consumer spending. Our economy would flourish.
Lets' face it, we do NOT have that kind of thinking in the White House. And, it's a shame and tragedy that we don't. But let's not blame many of our innocent fellow Americans for the horrible policies that come out of Washington. The best way to reduce entitlement programs is to create tons of legitimate jobs. If we had an economy that was flourishing, as it should and could be, there would then be only a small number of people that legitimately needed to be on any kind of entitlement program, and the revenues needed for entitlement programs would inherently shrink.
So... four critical things...
1. fix the borders, 2. implement a fair and lower tax policy, 3. require a balanced budget, 4. most important... create a compelling business environment here in the USA that makes America one of the BEST places on earth to do business.
Do these four things, and most problems here in the US would be solved.
Our current President Obama does not support these four things. So it is no surprise that we are in the shape we are in.
They are doing the last minute give-ups to save face at the moment. What we get is same-ole spend/tax. Expected as the sun rises.
We might be on different sides of the auto industry views but we are still Americans and want to see the best for our country. Obama is truly an apprentice!
The games in Washington make us look pathetic, however. Obama needs to go so we can move the balance back to prosperity. His only stance is that he inherited all of the current economic problems and the Congress is why the anemic recovery is poised to halt and reverse.
#1 I am concerned that the jobs concept has been lost with whatever group we wish to blame for much of our manufacturing having been moved overseas being the fault holder. However, many US citizens buy whatever goods they wish without thought to where the goods was produced. They continue to buy the same way, taking jobs away from the US citizens and leaving more welfare needed. So I blame consumers along with the businessmen who moved Rubbermaid/Newell to China for production instead of in the US, e.g.
#2 I also am not sure benefitting top income earners and companies with tax breaks and credits will stimulate them to do anything but give lip service to getting more jobs here: to wit, GE's head telling small businesses in US to start hiring (he's on Obama's jobs panel) at the same time GE cut 30,000 jobs in two years and is moving their X-ray headquarters to China.
Is he bringing jobs back to US let alone is GE paying taxes here.
I think we're in a rock and hard place.
We're doing a big experiment in Ohio with the new governor's big business friends all getting special treatment. We'll see if it brings more jobs to Ohio in a year.
#3 The reckless spending is a huge threat in many ways. Devaluation of the dollar. Inflation. Higher interest rates due to lower rating on US debt meaning even less money to spend in US.
Well - we are approaching the bottom of the 9th and maybe finally some serious moves. I've read that the initial cuts in year 1 of both plans are $7bln out of trillions. Heck the fireworks money on the 4th of July are probably more than that. That is a pittance amount and yet they can't find agreement. Anyway latest NY Times coverage of some softening on both sides.
>We might be on different sides of the auto industry views
Now that's an understatement--grin.
I have a son for whom I'd like to see a worthwhile country survive. But this is going to end up as a banana republic at this rate. All that's missing is the dictator.
>They are doing the last minute give-ups to save face at the moment. What we get is same-ole spend/tax. Expected as the sun rises.
I watched the debate about the Reid bill in the house this afternoon. The behavior and allegations from the Dems about social security cuts, medicare, etc., were the usual party rhetoric blurted out in the middle of others' speaking times. The boo's from the dems while Republicans were speaking made them sound like the United Kingdoms parliament sometimes shown on TV. Embarrassing.
And you're exactly right: it's the same old election time planning rhetoric -- in many cases from both sides.
>His only stance is that he inherited all of the current economic problems and the Congress is why the anemic recovery is poised to halt and reverse.
Obama was the candidate who said he had the solution for the economic problems because he was so "learned." Remember those? Right along with Hope and Change. I believe he actually hopes to be elected more than 2 times to the office because he is so loved because of who he is, rather than by what he does for the country's good.
I moved some mutuals into fixed funds in my tax free holdings on Friday.
I hope I can move back into certain funds without missing an upward run if there is a reasonable settlement by the Dems. I feel if there's only a rise in the debt ceiling with no movement toward long term adjustments to the upward run that is now starting to change slope rapidly on the growth rate in soc sec, medicare, medicaid, there may be a protracted down time of uncertainly.
Jesus was clearly referring to those in the faith. Which we and I do on a very regular basis.
So those that are not Christians can go to hell, right? In other words Jesus only wanted to help those who belong to the "country club". The rest are not worthy. And what about those who have never even heard of Jesus? Not that it matters, but most of the people in this country who are in need of help are those in the faith as you phrase it.
Man, you and I are miles apart, so there is no sense in continuing this argument. It is a dead end. We are indeed polar opposites.
Shorting the market almost seems like some form of treason, to me. But I also don't like hedge funders and I believe in very harsh punishment for financial crimes, so that's just me. Those who are set to profit from a downgrade should be called out by media of every allegiance...but they won't be.
This whole mess right now has no thought of the average American, or even the slightly above average American who has actually put aside a little nest egg. We indeed are expendable. It is politics first and foremost.
I won't enter into a religious argument, but there is no doubt that Jesus came to save all of us... and to help the sick and the needy, as He told us and as He showed us.
Turning our back on those in honest need is not Christian... and not what our Lord Jesus Christ has in mind.
However, from a political standpoint, it is necessary to implement healthy policies. Entitlement programs don't mysteriously get to be so huge... they become too large as the result of economic policies that are counter-productive to producing the very jobs that those people need. Those bad policies themselves are the ROOT CAUSE of much of the need for entitlements. THOSE are the REAL problems... and not the entitlement programs themselves and not the vast majority of the people hooked into them.
In other words, the inflated size of most entitlement programs are in fact a terrible SYMPTOM of a much WORSE and more serious condition... which is the collection of FAILED POLICIES by our government. A healthy economy would result in dramatically smaller entitlements. Duh. And I've already posted how to get a healthy economy by creating a compelling business climate.
That is the absolute truth. Truth religiously, politically, and economically.
That is the absolute truth. Truth religiously, politically, and economically.
I'm glad you get it tagman. Entitlements only end up enslaving those that depend on them. We have a lady on welfare with two children at home. We have been helping her with her rent which is $1225 per month in the ghetto. The welfare people cut her aid because they would not believe her church was helping her pay her rent. They thought she had found a job paying cash. The welfare system is designed to keep people from working. I hate what it is doing to America and Americans. I am frustrated that so many people just don't see the truth of what is going on. They need to get out of their homes and into the slums to see.
....to get a healthy economy by creating a compelling business climate.
When you think about it, there is no other effective way to create jobs. The government (except with some real "shovel ready" infrastructure projects) should not be in the business of employing Americans. I don't think the Democrats get this :sick: .
The government (except with some real "shovel ready" infrastructure projects) should not be in the business of employing Americans. I don't think the Democrats get this.
That's an impossible mantra if what you want is massive government and that's clearly the dem position. The more you give out the more agencies you need to do it with. Pelosi just sickens me with her theatrics. Here at the 11th houir she makes an absurd statement that Boehner has moved to the dark side. Yesterday she was saying the dems would save the world. How can a person like this be in any position of power? All this is about is taking steps to right ourselves and she's obviously against it.
Don't forget that Pelosi was one of the bunch that went to the GW summit in Copenhagen, wanting the US to pledge nearly a $trillion dollars to third World countries. The premise was they will need to fight the horrors of possible GW. Whether you believe in man made GW or not, committing that kind of money on a possibility is insane. Part of her saving the World at the US taxpayers expense. So I have to assume Pelosi is insane.
Someone should question the fact that her net worth grew by 62% last year to $35 million. In fact a lot of our nations leaders had monstrous gains in net worth last year. While the country continues to bleed jobs and become a 3rd World dictatorship. That being a distinct possibility, if Obama decides to ignore the constitution and plunge US deeper in debt to pay for HIS socialist programs.
Don't forget that Pelosi was one of the bunch that went to the GW summit in Copenhagen, wanting the US to pledge nearly a $trillion dollars to third World countries.
She is totally wreckless and gives no thought to anything based on her actions and speeches. To think she was House Speaker is scary. If she wants to be charitable with her own money it's fine but she acts as if the US cash was at her disposal. If I'm Obama I'm cringing everytime she opens her mouth. And to want to pledge a trillion dollars to a theory when you have nothing in your pocket is absolutely insane. Yeah I have no doubt we have GW but how much is man made is hard to understand. The earth has been through many GW cycles in its history all of them natural. Someday NYC will be a mountain range too thanks to plate tectonics. Someday California will end up near Alaska for the same reason. Nature will do what it will do.
Looks like Reid's postponement of the vote by 12 hours may be a real positive thing and from the looks of this report in the NY Times something the Reps can't turn down as it looks like Boehner+ and if Obama is behind it it's hard to imagine Senate Dems will turn it down.
It very much looks like a compromise will indeed get done today. I predict the market will soar tomorrow. I also doubt that there will be a downgrade on the U.S.
Yes, of course! Same prediction here. Don't mean ANY disrespect, but I honestly think it's practically a foregone conclusion. I've been working for hours trying to figure out the best way to play it.
The problem for traders that I see is that the opening few seconds could prove to be the biggest move of the day... certainly the early trading... and then the GDP data and all the rest of the problems with the economy will suddenly be thrust to the front burner, and then the market might get a reality check somewhere into the day, and settle down. And then the last 5 - 10- minutes of the trading day will be extremely high volume, as the market makes its final statement in a big way.
I also doubt that there will be a downgrade on the U.S.
I sure hope you're right. But, I think that the final agreement will not have enough in the way of spending cuts to reduce the deficit in order to avoid a downgrade. Let's hope for the best.
I honestly do not feel there will be much of a reality check tomorrow. The reasons for the GDP sucking was in my opinion mainly due to the Japan disaster and the very high energy prices from months ago. The Debt Ceiling crisis has been a huge cloud on the market recently.
As long as we get a deal done today, the Dow will close at least 200 higher tomorrow.
I honestly do not feel there will be much of a reality check tomorrow. The reasons for the GDP sucking was in my opinion mainly due to the Japan disaster and the very high energy prices from months ago. The Debt Ceiling crisis has been a huge cloud on the market recently.
Hope you are right Charlie. It's certainly logical but I wish there was a way they could measure the GDP effects from the Japanese quake. I still subscribe to the the belief the economy is not as bad as anyone in the media says and the corporate earnings growth is pretty much proof to me. The problem is that because of the deep recession certain parts of the economy that rose up because of easy money are gone, possibly forever and that is where the unemployed reside, and why job growth escapes us. So we need new things to develop (and old things like contruction and real estate to come back) and the only way to get there is an administration that allows for a healthy business climate. No new taxes is one of the best ways to get there but pushing committee on committe of oversight is also pushing jobs out of the country. It's pretty sad when a key member of the jobs growth committee is slashing 30K jobs here in his corporate world and moving them overseas. That's telling you that while he may know how to enact job growth he's powerless against an administration that goes against the very things it says it wants to happen. There's no easy answer but IMO a small, smart audit group able to put in strong fines for avoidance of laws can be a lot more powerful than a bunch of high priced agencies that big government espouses.
I honestly do not feel there will be much of a reality check tomorrow.
Hmmm...
If the market does not deal with reality, then it will be out-of-whack, and we might have a bubble... which is not a good thing. Reality, as I refer to it, is the good, the bad, and the ugly. It includes earnings reports (many, but not all, of which have been stellar), disappointing GDP data, a debt problem that is NOT solved by RAISING the ceiling (even as the immediate default crisis is resolved), very low consumer sentiment, global economic concerns, and new terrorist concerns (i.e, Iran).
Also, the media will start to shift attention to all the other "junk" that has been largely ignored for an entire week.
And don't forget that there is an abundance of genuine market bears right now... shorting the market... hoping for a major market decline.
I am personally quite optimistic (with caution) overall, but I am not representative of everyone else. I've been in the market through most of the debt crisis. I was only out for a VERY short time, and I am even in at this point, having repurchased equities again on Friday, as I previously posted... but not in a huge way. I am not sure exactly what I am going to do next, but you can bet I will be glued to my computer or mobile device during the remainder of today and during tomorrow's trading hours.
I still subscribe to the the belief the economy is not as bad as anyone in the media says and the corporate earnings growth is pretty much proof to me.
I share your feelings somewhat, but it is tempered by the fact that IMO those great earnings figures were achieved, in some part, because so many people were let go (partly explains our high unemployment) and so much was saved on payroll and benefits. This usually only works short term...and then reality sets in.
a debt problem that is NOT solved by RAISING the ceiling
I also believe tomorrow and on will be good for the stock market. Still not going to do anything for the much bigger problem of creating instead of bleeding jobs. Boston Scientific is laying off 1300 people and building a new factory in China. They will spend $150 million in China and hire 1000 workers. This story is a daily occurrence. We have to get agencies like the NLRB and EPA out of the job killing mode. Is it better to send the polluting jobs to China and declare it is not our problem? So many of the things we buy from China and other countries cannot be built here under current regulations. From hybrids to iPhones to solar panels. Add to that the NLRB trying to block companies from moving from one state to another. If Card Check had gone through like Obama promised the Unions, we would see a massive loss of jobs. I am not convinced that a Democrat Congress is capable of what it takes to create private sector jobs. I hate to put a damper on what could be a very good market for most of us on this thread. I don't see it improving the lot of the millions that don't have a job and want one.
Yep they are lean and mean but revenue growth was very good though some of it is from overseas and favorable exch rates. But I can only judge by the local economy, conversations with others (and businesswise here things are certainly a lot better than 2 years ago) and the revenue growth plus the hoardes of cash that corps have amassed and it bothers me a lot that that cash is being taken out of the economy. I'd rather see companies like Apple have $25 bln in cash and the other $51 bln recirculated in the economy where it belongs.
I'd rather see companies like Apple have $25 bln in cash and the other $51 bln recirculated in the economy where it belongs.
Apple will probably spend a billion on that new spaceship campus. That will create some construction jobs over the new 3 or 4 years for the area. For a company to build in a non RTW state right now would be crazy. The UAW is showing their colors again with the automakers. They are at $48 per hour cost basis and up, trying to compete with companies like VW that have 1000s of applicants for jobs that will cost them $27 per hour. How can a Union shop compete? You force the union on a company and they move to Mexico or China or India or Vietnam or any of a 100 business friendly countries. Anyone here think Ford could compete if all their vehicles were built in the USA?
That is the one thing I don't like about Apple. Hoarding so much cash. Not declaring some sort of one time divy tells me they are greedy and don't give their investors much thought. I think that is short sighted on their part.
Disagree on this. I think without that huge treasure chest full of cash, AAPL shares would trade significantly lower. In addition, I never think it's a good idea for outside interference. No one, especially the government, should interfere with this or have any authority to intervene in any way whatsoever.
I still believe that Apple will put a large portion of that cash to brilliant use in the not-too-distant future.
Who said anything about the gov. interfering? Apple can make their own decision on dividends or buying back stock, etc. I just think it might be a good move on their part. Outside influence or the gov. has nothing to do with it.
There have been many discussions about Apple's cash holdings, and some of the ideas that have floated around have been of an intrusive nature... one guy on CNBC suggested that Apple should be "forced" to offer a dividend to it's shareholders.
I believe without any doubt that the more THAT kind of crazy talk spreads and gains in popularity, the greater the chance for our massive interfering government to step in.
Some idiot in government could eventually get the idea that there should be legislation that regulates the amount of $$$$ a company can accumulate without offering dividends to its shareholders.
It's one of the things that is soooo WRONG with our government. Frankly, it would not surprise me at all, espcecially with Obama at the helm.
I still believe that Apple will put a large portion of that cash to brilliant use in the not-too-distant future.
How? They'd need to spend $50bln or so for that and while they can use the cash for an acquisition, they could also use their stock. They are amassing $5-10bln a quarter. All it's going to do is accumulate more and more probably reaching $100bln a year or so from now. Accumulated cash is taken out of the economy or itself is put at risk because there's only so much you need for business expansion or a downturn. And if you deduct the cash from the market cap Apple is trading at an absurdly low multiple. So I doubt the market has any valuation in the cash. Of course it doesn't make sense to me but the low multiple tells it all. In the end the shareholders own the cash and the corporation should dstribute some portion of it.
Apple has a history that is very mixed and extreme. They are in a business that is riskier than some realize, and RIMM and Nokia are simple examples. Even Dell went through a serious downward cycle before a recent upswing.
Current iPod sales are tanking!! It is ridiculous to think Apple has the Midas Touch. Things can change in a hurry. I absolutely believe that by having that much cash on hand, investors confidence is increased significantly. The cash gives them some level of insurance, and it provides the means to make a major investment towards the future. I also maintain that Apple is going to make a major and significant purchase in the not-too-distant future.
It is amazing to me how, for example, most of the competitors have done little else but to copy Apple. How stupid to not leapfrog Apple, but they do not have the vision for a future that is DIFFERENT than what they currently see. All we see are clones and look-a-like products from the competitors. Apple, however, has that kind of vision, and it will require $$$.
Unlike so many, I am fine with Apple's cash holdings, as I believe they will ultimately make the right decision as to how to use it, including (but certainly not limited to) the possibility of a dividend, of course.
I believe in this company almost completely... and I am not going to second-guess their cash holdings. I trust there is more WISDOM behind it than greed, as has been suggested.
Ok...agreement is finally a done deal... pending formalities. Futures are almost open. Should be huge upside.
Pelosi the insane person that would give away trillions at this stage just came out and said House Dems may not be in support of the deal. Again for our buddy Charlie, who I like and respect dearly, their is indeed a TP that is crazy and uncompromising but there are just as many nuts on the Dem side that are the same in the opposite view and the more we have of both the more impossible it's going to be to get anything done in the future. Some of these folks just seem to want to call attention to themselves and Pelosi is at the head of the line in this regard.
The factt hat she has power and can so quickly come out against her own President speaks to how bad the Dem party is right now. I personally think they came up with a brilliant trigger as cuts that are automatically triggered are crucial to both sides and force both sides to act in the future. What you have now are stupid egos like Pelosi's that c'ant be healed. Notice how she was on the sidelines and now comes out at every chance and everything she says is senseless.
Comments
I sure haven't forgotten.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
If anything else passes we will still be downgraded and the spending will continue to increase. I am beginning to think that the best deal now may be no deal. That will, at least, stop the spending.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Taxpayers are never in the picture. Americans love to delude themselves about the real role they play in national political leadership. Votes are symbolic, little more.
I am still curious as to which sectors of the financial industry will profit from a credit downgrade, and how they lobby.
There are investors that like to short the market. Before I moved to SoCal, I had a Greek friend in NorCal. He was a Republican "bear", incredibly wealthy, and celebrated the first time gas prices hit $4/gallon... saying how it would hopefully keep a lot of the poor drivers off the roads & into public transportation, making it better for the rest of us. Wow, that was quite a statement.
There are ways to hugely profit from a market collapse. If it turns out that there is no agreement, then I will personally be purchasing shares of QID. I came very close to doing so during this past week, but I never did... and in hindsight, I should have.
Unfortunately, there are many people in powerful positions that would have little concern over a default and what might happen to average Americans. We are expendible.
TM
I had never heard of that one before. Looking over the last 5 years I would say it may be a great choice for a market downturn. It hit $450 at the crash of 08. Shorting is something I really don't know enough about to try.
Now I've heard everything. You have got to be kidding me. Feeding of the poor is anti Biblical? Let's see now. Jesus did say that "what you do for the least of my brethren, you do for me", correct?
Why do some of you say that the Dems are not willing to compromise (Reid plan has no tax revenues)? Don't you think that some would like to increase taxes on the very rich and the huge oil companies instead these huge companies getting huge subsidies? This is one of the reasons that the son of the governor of IA (Republican) told me this morning that he cannot stand Michelle Bachmann and her cohorts.
Btw, what would you want to see slashed? Medicare, Social Security, veterans benefits, education benefits, etc, etc? You would probably be the first to complain if your Social Security check was trimmed.
I just saw the Republican press conference. Nothing substantive at all, but major suggestions that an agreement will happen.
Whatever happens, it's important to be ready. If there is an agreement BEFORE the market opens, then it will be difficult to take advantage of the outcome because the biggest investors will be able to put all their chips in place BEFORE the market opens. As usual, the game is rigged. They will WIN no matter what happens... while the rest of us try to chase crumbs.
TM
Pelosi can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. I don't care for her either. But the Dems will have a compromised plan this weekend and she will go along with it. The problem is, will enough moderate Republican House members go along because obviously the Tea Party will not?
You have to know the Reid plan is a joke that they never plan to vote on. It did not cut real spending. It was just a trick to raise the debt ceiling and continue spending as usual.
Jesus did say that "what you do for the least of my brethren, you do for me"
Jesus was clearly referring to those in the faith. Which we and I do on a very regular basis. It was also common to leave some of the grain in the field for the poor to gather and use. The key there is GATHER. Not have it handed to the poor in the form of an ATM card that can be used to buy booze, drugs and vacation cruises.
2 Thessalonians 3:10
For even when we were with you, we gave you this rule: “The one who is unwilling to work shall not eat.”
That should be posted at every welfare office. We are encouraging laziness with our welfare system.
There are dozens that are as radical or worse than Pelosi in the Democrat ranks. Thankfully we are rid of two of them. Weiner and Wu. They should go on the road with a show. Perverts R/us the Weiner & Wu show.
Any increase in debt should include REAL SIZABLE cuts in all areas of the Federal Government. If not now, when. They won't make any cuts once a debt ceiling increase is passed. Reagan learned that one the hard way.
For instance, someone was recently quoted as saying, "Yes, the situation is hopeless, but fortunately it is not serious" ! I loved it !
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Sherrod Brown of Ohio is another.
Interestingly one of the balking Tea Party electees may find himself without a home in Ohio due to his recalcitrance at working with the Republican leadership, Boehner. Ohio needs to lose two districts and his likely will be dissolved .
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
As parents, we have to prepare and encourage our kids to take care of themselves and be independent one day. If, instead we show them that there is some sort of situation in place that will take care of them without effort on their own, they will have an option that is unproductive and DEPENDENT upon that very situation.
Unfortunately, there are sooooo many that take advantage of the entitlement programs, and it has been PROVEN that there is also a MASSIVE level of FRAUD.
The saddest part of all of is that there are many fellow Americans that have legitimate needs. They are not able to secure work no matter how hard they try. Many of them have families they need to support. Some of them have been able to secure horrible jobs, and they know those jobs are better than nothing, but that is still very sad. Again, there are some that legitimately can NOT get work because there are more people than there are jobs. It's a mathematical fact due to our unhealthy economy. So, it's simply NOT their fault.
Now to get to the deeper analysis here, the entire entitlement problem is made MUCH worse when we have wreckless spending, and not enough jobs. It feeds itself and grows worse. More wreckless spending, and high taxation upon business makes our economy worse, and the worse the economy gets the more fellow Americans become desperate.
Also, the wide open borders allow a flood of illegal aliens that come here and steal jobs from our fellow Americans... and employers seem all too willing to hand those jpbs over to illegal immigrants that are willing to work at a very different (much lower!!!) wage scale than our society tries to aspire to. Even if those immigrants become legal, they are still willing to work for much less, and that strains our employment picture. The giant corporations don't mind paying lower wages, and if they can't do it here in America they take the jobs overseas. This is not the fault of "lazy" Americans. It's the fault of not having a terrific business climate right here in America.
The ONLY way to fix all of this is to control our borders, and to create an economic climate that is incredibly compelling to the establishment of businesses and to the growth of businesses. This is done by reducing and eliminating many burdens upon businesses, and making the United States one of the best places to do business in the world. This means lower corporate taxes, fewer unecessary regulations, incentives for hiring employees and incentives for growth. The result would be an explosion of growth, a massive increase in jobs, a massive increase in tax revenues from all those employees, an ability to meet a balanced budget, and an increase in consumer spending. Our economy would flourish.
Lets' face it, we do NOT have that kind of thinking in the White House. And, it's a shame and tragedy that we don't. But let's not blame many of our innocent fellow Americans for the horrible policies that come out of Washington. The best way to reduce entitlement programs is to create tons of legitimate jobs. If we had an economy that was flourishing, as it should and could be, there would then be only a small number of people that legitimately needed to be on any kind of entitlement program, and the revenues needed for entitlement programs would inherently shrink.
So... four critical things...
1. fix the borders,
2. implement a fair and lower tax policy,
3. require a balanced budget,
4. most important... create a compelling business environment here in the USA that makes America one of the BEST places on earth to do business.
Do these four things, and most problems here in the US would be solved.
Our current President Obama does not support these four things. So it is no surprise that we are in the shape we are in.
TM
We might be on different sides of the auto industry views but we are still Americans and want to see the best for our country. Obama is truly an apprentice!
The games in Washington make us look pathetic, however. Obama needs to go so we can move the balance back to prosperity. His only stance is that he inherited all of the current economic problems and the Congress is why the anemic recovery is poised to halt and reverse.
Regards,
OW
#1
I am concerned that the jobs concept has been lost with whatever group we wish to blame for much of our manufacturing having been moved overseas being the fault holder. However, many US citizens buy whatever goods they wish without thought to where the goods was produced. They continue to buy the same way, taking jobs away from the US citizens and leaving more welfare needed. So I blame consumers along with the businessmen who moved Rubbermaid/Newell to China for production instead of in the US, e.g.
#2
I also am not sure benefitting top income earners and companies with tax breaks and credits will stimulate them to do anything but give lip service to getting more jobs here: to wit, GE's head telling small businesses in US to start hiring (he's on Obama's jobs panel) at the same time GE cut 30,000 jobs in two years and is moving their X-ray headquarters to China.
Is he bringing jobs back to US let alone is GE paying taxes here.
I think we're in a rock and hard place.
We're doing a big experiment in Ohio with the new governor's big business friends all getting special treatment. We'll see if it brings more jobs to Ohio in a year.
#3
The reckless spending is a huge threat in many ways. Devaluation of the dollar. Inflation. Higher interest rates due to lower rating on US debt meaning even less money to spend in US.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/us/politics/31fiscal.html?_r=1&hp
Now that's an understatement--grin.
I have a son for whom I'd like to see a worthwhile country survive. But this is going to end up as a banana republic at this rate. All that's missing is the dictator.
>They are doing the last minute give-ups to save face at the moment. What we get is same-ole spend/tax. Expected as the sun rises.
I watched the debate about the Reid bill in the house this afternoon. The behavior and allegations from the Dems about social security cuts, medicare, etc., were the usual party rhetoric blurted out in the middle of others' speaking times. The boo's from the dems while Republicans were speaking made them sound like the United Kingdoms parliament sometimes shown on TV. Embarrassing.
And you're exactly right: it's the same old election time planning rhetoric -- in many cases from both sides.
>His only stance is that he inherited all of the current economic problems and the Congress is why the anemic recovery is poised to halt and reverse.
Obama was the candidate who said he had the solution for the economic problems because he was so "learned." Remember those? Right along with Hope and Change. I believe he actually hopes to be elected more than 2 times to the office because he is so loved because of who he is, rather than by what he does for the country's good.
I moved some mutuals into fixed funds in my tax free holdings on Friday.
I hope I can move back into certain funds without missing an upward run if there is a reasonable settlement by the Dems. I feel if there's only a rise in the debt ceiling with no movement toward long term adjustments to the upward run that is now starting to change slope rapidly on the growth rate in soc sec, medicare, medicaid, there may be a protracted down time of uncertainly.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
So those that are not Christians can go to hell, right? In other words Jesus only wanted to help those who belong to the "country club". The rest are not worthy. And what about those who have never even heard of Jesus? Not that it matters, but most of the people in this country who are in need of help are those in the faith as you phrase it.
Man, you and I are miles apart, so there is no sense in continuing this argument. It is a dead end. We are indeed polar opposites.
This whole mess right now has no thought of the average American, or even the slightly above average American who has actually put aside a little nest egg. We indeed are expendable. It is politics first and foremost.
C'mon now ... let's talk TRUTH here.
I won't enter into a religious argument, but there is no doubt that Jesus came to save all of us... and to help the sick and the needy, as He told us and as He showed us.
Turning our back on those in honest need is not Christian... and not what our Lord Jesus Christ has in mind.
However, from a political standpoint, it is necessary to implement healthy policies. Entitlement programs don't mysteriously get to be so huge... they become too large as the result of economic policies that are counter-productive to producing the very jobs that those people need. Those bad policies themselves are the ROOT CAUSE of much of the need for entitlements. THOSE are the REAL problems... and not the entitlement programs themselves and not the vast majority of the people hooked into them.
In other words, the inflated size of most entitlement programs are in fact a terrible SYMPTOM of a much WORSE and more serious condition... which is the collection of FAILED POLICIES by our government. A healthy economy would result in dramatically smaller entitlements. Duh. And I've already posted how to get a healthy economy by creating a compelling business climate.
That is the absolute truth. Truth religiously, politically, and economically.
TM
I'm glad you get it tagman.
When you think about it, there is no other effective way to create jobs. The government (except with some real "shovel ready" infrastructure projects) should not be in the business of employing Americans. I don't think the Democrats get this :sick: .
That's an impossible mantra if what you want is massive government and that's clearly the dem position. The more you give out the more agencies you need to do it with. Pelosi just sickens me with her theatrics. Here at the 11th houir she makes an absurd statement that Boehner has moved to the dark side. Yesterday she was saying the dems would save the world. How can a person like this be in any position of power? All this is about is taking steps to right ourselves and she's obviously against it.
Yes sir, yes sir, three bags full.
Help those who need it and let the lazy parasites die.
Someone should question the fact that her net worth grew by 62% last year to $35 million. In fact a lot of our nations leaders had monstrous gains in net worth last year. While the country continues to bleed jobs and become a 3rd World dictatorship. That being a distinct possibility, if Obama decides to ignore the constitution and plunge US deeper in debt to pay for HIS socialist programs.
She is totally wreckless and gives no thought to anything based on her actions and speeches. To think she was House Speaker is scary. If she wants to be charitable with her own money it's fine but she acts as if the US cash was at her disposal. If I'm Obama I'm cringing everytime she opens her mouth. And to want to pledge a trillion dollars to a theory when you have nothing in your pocket is absolutely insane. Yeah I have no doubt we have GW but how much is man made is hard to understand. The earth has been through many GW cycles in its history all of them natural. Someday NYC will be a mountain range too thanks to plate tectonics. Someday California will end up near Alaska for the same reason. Nature will do what it will do.
Looks like Reid's postponement of the vote by 12 hours may be a real positive thing and from the looks of this report in the NY Times something the Reps can't turn down as it looks like Boehner+ and if Obama is behind it it's hard to imagine Senate Dems will turn it down.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/us/politics/31fiscal.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp-
Yes, of course! Same prediction here. Don't mean ANY disrespect, but I honestly think it's practically a foregone conclusion. I've been working for hours trying to figure out the best way to play it.
The problem for traders that I see is that the opening few seconds could prove to be the biggest move of the day... certainly the early trading... and then the GDP data and all the rest of the problems with the economy will suddenly be thrust to the front burner, and then the market might get a reality check somewhere into the day, and settle down. And then the last 5 - 10- minutes of the trading day will be extremely high volume, as the market makes its final statement in a big way.
TM
I sure hope you're right. But, I think that the final agreement will not have enough in the way of spending cuts to reduce the deficit in order to avoid a downgrade. Let's hope for the best.
I honestly do not feel there will be much of a reality check tomorrow. The reasons for the GDP sucking was in my opinion mainly due to the Japan disaster and the very high energy prices from months ago. The Debt Ceiling crisis has been a huge cloud on the market recently.
As long as we get a deal done today, the Dow will close at least 200 higher tomorrow.
Hope you are right Charlie. It's certainly logical but I wish there was a way they could measure the GDP effects from the Japanese quake. I still subscribe to the the belief the economy is not as bad as anyone in the media says and the corporate earnings growth is pretty much proof to me. The problem is that because of the deep recession certain parts of the economy that rose up because of easy money are gone, possibly forever and that is where the unemployed reside, and why job growth escapes us. So we need new things to develop (and old things like contruction and real estate to come back) and the only way to get there is an administration that allows for a healthy business climate. No new taxes is one of the best ways to get there but pushing committee on committe of oversight is also pushing jobs out of the country. It's pretty sad when a key member of the jobs growth committee is slashing 30K jobs here in his corporate world and moving them overseas. That's telling you that while he may know how to enact job growth he's powerless against an administration that goes against the very things it says it wants to happen. There's no easy answer but IMO a small, smart audit group able to put in strong fines for avoidance of laws can be a lot more powerful than a bunch of high priced agencies that big government espouses.
Hmmm...
If the market does not deal with reality, then it will be out-of-whack, and we might have a bubble... which is not a good thing. Reality, as I refer to it, is the good, the bad, and the ugly. It includes earnings reports (many, but not all, of which have been stellar), disappointing GDP data, a debt problem that is NOT solved by RAISING the ceiling (even as the immediate default crisis is resolved), very low consumer sentiment, global economic concerns, and new terrorist concerns (i.e, Iran).
Also, the media will start to shift attention to all the other "junk" that has been largely ignored for an entire week.
And don't forget that there is an abundance of genuine market bears right now... shorting the market... hoping for a major market decline.
I am personally quite optimistic (with caution) overall, but I am not representative of everyone else. I've been in the market through most of the debt crisis. I was only out for a VERY short time, and I am even in at this point, having repurchased equities again on Friday, as I previously posted... but not in a huge way. I am not sure exactly what I am going to do next, but you can bet I will be glued to my computer or mobile device during the remainder of today and during tomorrow's trading hours.
TM
I share your feelings somewhat, but it is tempered by the fact that IMO those great earnings figures were achieved, in some part, because so many people were let go (partly explains our high unemployment) and so much was saved on payroll and benefits. This usually only works short term...and then reality sets in.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I also believe tomorrow and on will be good for the stock market. Still not going to do anything for the much bigger problem of creating instead of bleeding jobs. Boston Scientific is laying off 1300 people and building a new factory in China. They will spend $150 million in China and hire 1000 workers. This story is a daily occurrence. We have to get agencies like the NLRB and EPA out of the job killing mode. Is it better to send the polluting jobs to China and declare it is not our problem? So many of the things we buy from China and other countries cannot be built here under current regulations. From hybrids to iPhones to solar panels. Add to that the NLRB trying to block companies from moving from one state to another. If Card Check had gone through like Obama promised the Unions, we would see a massive loss of jobs. I am not convinced that a Democrat Congress is capable of what it takes to create private sector jobs. I hate to put a damper on what could be a very good market for most of us on this thread. I don't see it improving the lot of the millions that don't have a job and want one.
Apple will probably spend a billion on that new spaceship campus. That will create some construction jobs over the new 3 or 4 years for the area. For a company to build in a non RTW state right now would be crazy. The UAW is showing their colors again with the automakers. They are at $48 per hour cost basis and up, trying to compete with companies like VW that have 1000s of applicants for jobs that will cost them $27 per hour. How can a Union shop compete? You force the union on a company and they move to Mexico or China or India or Vietnam or any of a 100 business friendly countries. Anyone here think Ford could compete if all their vehicles were built in the USA?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I still believe that Apple will put a large portion of that cash to brilliant use in the not-too-distant future.
TM
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Certainly not YOU or I.
There have been many discussions about Apple's cash holdings, and some of the ideas that have floated around have been of an intrusive nature... one guy on CNBC suggested that Apple should be "forced" to offer a dividend to it's shareholders.
I believe without any doubt that the more THAT kind of crazy talk spreads and gains in popularity, the greater the chance for our massive interfering government to step in.
Some idiot in government could eventually get the idea that there should be legislation that regulates the amount of $$$$ a company can accumulate without offering dividends to its shareholders.
It's one of the things that is soooo WRONG with our government. Frankly, it would not surprise me at all, espcecially with Obama at the helm.
TM
How? They'd need to spend $50bln or so for that and while they can use the cash for an acquisition, they could also use their stock. They are amassing $5-10bln a quarter. All it's going to do is accumulate more and more probably reaching $100bln a year or so from now. Accumulated cash is taken out of the economy or itself is put at risk because there's only so much you need for business expansion or a downturn. And if you deduct the cash from the market cap Apple is trading at an absurdly low multiple. So I doubt the market has any valuation in the cash. Of course it doesn't make sense to me but the low multiple tells it all. In the end the shareholders own the cash and the corporation should dstribute some portion of it.
Current iPod sales are tanking!! It is ridiculous to think Apple has the Midas Touch. Things can change in a hurry. I absolutely believe that by having that much cash on hand, investors confidence is increased significantly. The cash gives them some level of insurance, and it provides the means to make a major investment towards the future. I also maintain that Apple is going to make a major and significant purchase in the not-too-distant future.
It is amazing to me how, for example, most of the competitors have done little else but to copy Apple. How stupid to not leapfrog Apple, but they do not have the vision for a future that is DIFFERENT than what they currently see. All we see are clones and look-a-like products from the competitors. Apple, however, has that kind of vision, and it will require $$$.
Unlike so many, I am fine with Apple's cash holdings, as I believe they will ultimately make the right decision as to how to use it, including (but certainly not limited to) the possibility of a dividend, of course.
I believe in this company almost completely... and I am not going to second-guess their cash holdings. I trust there is more WISDOM behind it than greed, as has been suggested.
TM
TM
Pelosi the insane person that would give away trillions at this stage just came out and said House Dems may not be in support of the deal. Again for our buddy Charlie, who I like and respect dearly, their is indeed a TP that is crazy and uncompromising but there are just as many nuts on the Dem side that are the same in the opposite view and the more we have of both the more impossible it's going to be to get anything done in the future. Some of these folks just seem to want to call attention to themselves and Pelosi is at the head of the line in this regard.
TM
Seems the extreme Democrats might kill it.
TM