Will the Chevy Volt Succeed?

tpe

It will be interesting to see what kind of formula the EPA comes up with for determining a PHEVs mileage rating. As you stated it will very much depend on the size of the battery pack and the type of driving the person does. The Chevy Volt is supposed to still get 50 mpg after the battery pack has been depleted but I don't know what type of driving this involves. I'm guessing that if you get much above 70 mph the ICE generator will be running almost continuously.

larsb

Well, they will certainly be required to run it until the initial electricity is depleted and the generator starts charging the batteries.

It will be interesting to know the way they end up configuring the test, and to know the results.

stevedebi

"I'm not sure that I believe that. Honda offered an EV in CA during the few years that it was mandated by CARB. "

Let me restate it, apparently the point was not well made. Honda does not have a full hybrid. For the past 9 years they have made the decision not to develop one, preferring the IMA system, which does not work with any kind of EV-only mode.

It is not a matter of being able to develop one, it is a matter of choice, and not having any current technology that would work with a plug in.

Considering the good MPG they get with the IMA in small vehicles, it would appear that they are content to use this technology until full hydrogen comes in.

tpe

It is not a matter of being able to develop one, it is a matter of choice, and not having any current technology that would work with a plug in.

Honda's Clarity FCX is powered 100% by electric motors. Honda has chosen to use stored hydrogen and a fuel cell stack as opposed to an ICE to keep the Li-ion batteries charged but still essentially the same principal. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to increase the battery capacity and allow for home recharging.

GM has stated this is a potential future configuration for the Volt. Where the ICE and gas tank is pulled and replaced with a fuel cell and hydrogen or with a generator that can run on bio-diesel. GM seems to be covering all the bases and by doing so will deliver a vehicle to the market sooner that will not be made obsolete by hydrogen when/if it becomes viable.

stevedebi

"Honda's Clarity FCX is powered 100% by electric motors. Honda has chosen to use stored hydrogen and a fuel cell stack as opposed to an ICE to keep the Li-ion batteries charged but still essentially the same principal. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to increase the battery capacity and allow for home recharging. "

[sigh]
Allow me to review what I wrote, and what you quoted, note highlight:

It is not a matter of being able to develop one, it is a matter of choice, and not having any current technology that would work with a plug in.

Also note that a Plug In is very different from a Fuel Cell. The fuel cell generates electricity which then powers an electric propulsion system, which is rather different from storing electricity for use in electric only mode. Very different battery requirements and computer programming.

tpe

I'll do some research but I believe in the Honda Clarity the fuel cell primarily charges the battery pack. It is the battery pack that is actually powering the electric motors. It may be that sometimes electricity from both the battery pack and the fuel cell are powering the electric motors but I'd be very surprised if this vehicle is incapable of operating in a battery only mode. However, I've been wrong many times before.

duke15

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121495482307421193.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

This article is from the Wall Street Journal and is about GM basically betting almost everything on the Volt. It also states that once the gas-powered engine kicks in, they are guessing it will get about 10mph.

I thought people in this forum would be interested in the article and that it may generate some discussions.

PF_Flyer

It's going to be interesting to see if the Volt makes it. I thought it was a VERY ambitious target they set for themselves right from the start. And to come out from day one as if it was going to happen by a date certain, performing to the original specs and at their target price sounded like a sure setup for at least disappointment.

The dwindling time left until Nov 2010 will tell the tale

tpe

Some reports claim the Volt will get 50 mpg in this mode, but that's hallucinatory: If using a gasoline engine to power an electric motor were so efficient, the streets would be full of such vehicles. (Our guess: The car will be lucky to get 15 mpg under gasoline power.)


That was just an op-ed piece so I guess you have to excuse the author's deviations from reality. But his statement regarding the vehicle getting no more than 15 mpg when the ICE generator is running is so ludicrous it brings into question the credibility of any of his opinions. The reason vehicles like this aren't all over the place is purely due to the cost and charge cycle limitations of today's batteries. It has zero to do with the efficiency of this configuration, which was his claim. The batteries that GM and others plan on using have dealt with the charge cycle issue and we're hoping with mass production the cost issue will also diminish.

At best, the Volt will be an affluent family's third car.

It's not like GM plans on replacing the entire fleet in the first couple years. There are plenty of early adopters with enough buying power to create an initial demand. After that the price will have to drop. I believe GM is aware of this.

For a car with the Volt's narrow usability to sell would require an unlikely revolution in consumer behavior

I'd say that the Volt's usability is at least comparable to a Toyota Corolla, which was last month's biggest selling vehicle. This guy must not follow auto sales. If he did he'd realize that this unlikely revolution in consumer behavior is taking place.

It will have to be plugged in for six hours a day – i.e., it will be a car for a suburbanite with a sizeable garage wired for power.

Who cares if the car has to be plugged in for 6 hours, is that less convenient than paying $4+ for gasoline? Why would this garage have to be sizeable? What garage isn't wired for power? Does this author think that the idea of installing charging stations along streets and in parking lots is something beyond the capability of the US?

Basically the person who wrote this piece came across as very negative. A lot of criticisms with no suggestions except to build nuclear power plants. And why would he suggest building nuclear powerplants for recharging a vehicle that he considers impractical?

gagrice

The writer seemed like a GM basher. Notice when he questioned the Fuel Cell vehicles, he did not mention Honda, only GM. I am skeptical of Hydrogen as a fuel. At least GM has more than one iron in the fire. I don't see much new from Honda besides the Clarity. Same goes for Toyota. They are way behind last years hybrid production. Are they having second thoughts about selling hybrid vehicles?

Personally I like bashing all the Japanese and American auto makers for not offering me a small diesel PU and/or a large diesel SUV.

nedzel

The Chevy Volt will be a compact car with outstanding aerodynamics, low-rolling resistance tires, and a very small gasoline engine. Even without the batteries charged, the car is going to get excellent mileage. The author is either a liar or a fool to assert that it will get less than 15 mpg running on the gas engine. I don't trust a thing he says.

gwmort

I think the efficiency point is not as ludicrous as discussed here. Consider the Volt once the battery is depleted and the ICE kicks in. I understand the generator is charging the battery which is powering the vehicle, but really if demand is high it should be barely putting in more than is being taken out if at all, why not build a car now with no battery and a generator which powers electric motors? Answer must be its too inefficient (fewer conversion losses to just have the ICE power the car).

I realize the volt set up will allow generator to run at only efficient speed rather than demand speed which will increase overall efficiency, but the poit is worth considering.

I get the impression people in the cities are not that enthused about PHEV's because they won't have plugs on the sidewalk. Its probably true that early adopters will be suburbanites, but that alone is a huge market. Once they catch on big it wouldn't be a huge deal for cities to put metered outlets right into parking meters for instance.

reddroverr

I could try to conjecture on this, but I would have to rely on fuzzy logic and not real knowledge. GM has prototypes and the only problem noted with the drive chain was that when the ICE kicked in, it was a bit rough. I am not sure how you can get the reported 1.0 or 1.4L engine to deliver 15 mpg without burning out fast. If 15mpg is what they get, then they are in beeeg trouble. On some level it still might make sense to some people, but not at $30k or better.

tpe

why not build a car now with no battery and a generator which powers electric motors? Answer must be its too inefficient (fewer conversion losses to just have the ICE power the car).

That's correct. But if you take a 70 hp engine that is acting as a generator and instead use it to power the vehicle then you've got a 70 hp vehicle. Pretty anemic. By using this small, low power engine to charge a battery pack your vehicle's performance is not limited to the max output of the generator. The fact is that 70 hp is more than most vehicles use on average. Yes there will be relatively short bursts where a vehicle needs considerably more than this and the battery pack will be able to deliver. And during the periods when the vehicle's using less than 70 hp the battery pack will be replenished.

I am 100% certain that the Chevy Volt will get better than 15 mpg even if you never plug it in. The fact that the author of this article would make such a statement pretty much identifies him as an idiot.

gagrice

The fact that the author of this article would make such a statement pretty much identifies him as an idiot.

My guess is there is an instant MPG readout. Somewhere along his drive route he accelerated to a level that dropped the mileage way down. It is the same kind of writer that would claim he got 150 MPG while coasting down a hill and claim it was normal. That is if he liked the car. This writer did not seem to have an unbiased opinion of the Volt. Hopefully GM holds on till they can market the Volt. With the stock at $10 they are a target for a takeover and dismantling job. I am sure the pieces are worth a lot more than the stock price indicates.

reddroverr

I didn't see anything in the article that indicated the author had driven or been in a Volt.

reddroverr

A battery also allows you to capture braking energy and use it.

stevedebi

"A battery also allows you to capture braking energy and use it. "

So does a flywheel.

reddroverr

How does that work?

stevedebi

"How does that work? "
A flywheel is basically a heavy wheel that spins - when the car slows down the flywheel gets kinetic energy from the braking system. While the car is stopped the flywheel spins. When the car pulls out, energy is transferred from the flywheel to the wheels, which reduces the drag on the ICE. Or you can use the energy any way you want...

I found a link to various Flywheel patents.

tpe

I wonder how big a flywheel would need to be and how fast it would have to spin in order to capture even 50% of the kinetic energy of a 3,500 vehicle slowing from 60 to 0 mph? I've got to believe there would be some serious gyroscopic forces going on here that would affect a vehicle's handling.

tpe

My guess is there is an instant MPG readout

I'm sure there will be some readout showing intantaneous efficiency. I wonder if it will be expressed in mpg or miles per kWh or both?

PF_Flyer

Not only the gyroscopic forces and handling are questions. How about having a massive enough flywheel to store the energy and then having to drag that mass around the roads.

stevedebi

"Not only the gyroscopic forces and handling are questions. How about having a massive enough flywheel to store the energy and then having to drag that mass around the roads. "

Hey, I never said it was EASY. However, the main purpose of such a flywheel would be to accelerate the vehicle from a stop, which would negate the issue of gyroscopic forces to some extent.

But in any case I don't think anyone is working on using this concept. I was simply pointing out that there are ways other than batteries and regen braking to store energy when slowing down.

PF_Flyer

I think the reason that nobody is working on it migh tbe because of the impracticalities of it when it would come to a passenger vehicle.

Although according to a Wikipedia page (for what it migh tbe worth), The FIA has included the use of KERS (see kinetic energy recovery system) as part of its Formula 1 2009 sporting regulations

stevedebi

Back to the Volt.

I just saw a picture - what an UGLY car. Besides it looks large.

Does anyone know how much this thing weighs?

A recent article said the plug in would only go 40 miles, at which point it becomes a regular hybrid, with an ICE.

larsb

I don't think they know the weight, since they don't know what battery configuration ( or even for sure what technology ) will end up in the final production car.

Any weight you see posted anywhere will just be an estimate.

As with all cars, BEAUTY or lack thereof will be an "Eye of The Beholder" thing. Many people hate the look of the Prius, but that has not kept 'Yota from selling more than a million of them !!!

tpe

I just saw a picture - what an UGLY car. Besides it looks large.

The production version of the Volt will not look much like the concept vehicle displayed at the auto shows. The primary reason is because the coefficient of drag was horrible on the concept car. My understanding is that GM has pretty much finalized the body of the production vehicle and it now has a coefficient of drag slightly better than the Toyota Prius, which is very good.

stevedebi

So this isn't valid?

This was at the PHEV show on 11 jun (Reuters Picture).

GM Readies Volt (Reuters)

tpe

So this isn't valid?

I don't think so. That looks just like the concept car that's been displayed now for the past 1 1/2 years. GM has not yet publicly displayed what the production model will look like. From your link.

GM showed off a concept version of the Volt in January 2007 but has retooled the look of the vehicle significantly since then, in part in order to improve its aerodynamics, representatives of the automaker have said.

nedzel

No, that is just the concept car. The production car is going to look different. It will not have as long a hood and will be far more aerodynamic.

GM has not released pictures of the production version yet.

reddroverr

there are some people trying to make it work.

In an electric application, one wonders if the extra system would be worth it. Also, the energy captured would logically not be able to be stored for very long.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/10/flybrid-flywhee.html

I read about one car that was to be run by flywheels...haven't heard much about it since so it probably isn't going to pan out.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_n8_v17/ai_18471043

PF_Flyer

Seems like GM is Lowering Expectations for the Volt.

michael2003

I disagree with the translation provided: 'Translation: We haven't solved the battery problems and this really isn't going to be a production vehicle so you shouldn't expect too much. '

If the battery price is still higher than expected or the vehicle volume is not more than a couple of hundred thousand a year, that should not translate into 'battery technology is not here' or that 'this really isn't going to be a production vehicle'!
It really sounds more reasonable to think that GM is being conservative on expecting that there will be sufficient battery supply to support a major ramp up of EV or REEV vehicles. I wonder whether GM is attempting to entice the government into increasing incentives to help reduce the initial costs to consumers?

tpe

I read the article and totally disagree with your interpretation.

My interpretation is that GM and most of the other auto manufacturers have always fought these higher mileage standards. They do not want the Volt or similar vehicles to be used by the NHTSA as an argument as to why these higher standards should be easily achievable.

I realize that you like to focus on Volt articles that talk about problems and obstacles that this program faces. If you'd read all the articles with a less biased attitude you might draw a different conclusion. What I'm hearing is that this program is progressing on schedule and there have been no setbacks in battery testing. GM plans on awarding it's battery contract to one of 2 suppliers next month. That will give whoever they choose a couple years to ramp up manufacturing capacity. I'd say that the biggest obstacle facing the Volt right now is not technological. It's whether or not GM will still exist after 2010.

BTW, there's not a single knowledgable EV enthusiast that isn't well aware of what EVs impact on the grid will be. If every vehicle today suddenly became an EV this country would use 15% more electricity. We already have that much excess capacity during non-peak hours. It doesn't matter since everyone's vehicle won't suddenly become an EV overnight. It will take 20-30 years for the fleet to transition. Plenty of time to expand the country's generating capacity.

PF_Flyer

We've had plenty of time to expand oil refining capacity as well, and "not in my backyard" has prevented that. Do you see ANY reason why that won't happen if they try to build an electric power generation facility in John Q. Public's back yard?

I'm not against the idea of the Volt. What I've said all along is that it has seemed like an overly ambitious project and deadline for something that's clearly not worked out yet.

I don't think GM is going away anytime soon, but putting up a high-profile target like they have with the Volt, and then not meeting that expectation will do damage to the company as well.

gagrice

It will take 20-30 years for the fleet to transition. Plenty of time to expand the country's generating capacity.

That would be ambitious. Maybe 50 years from now. The biggest obstacle is the storage device for energy. The batteries are still too expensive to compete with very high priced fossil fuel. When GM awards the battery contract we will know more if the Volt is going to make its debut by 2010 or 2011. I do think it will be very limited the first few years. Maybe a few hundred leased like the hydrogen cars. It will take a major battery break through to get a large enough battery for under $20k. Toyota has pulled back from Li-Ion and is building a new NiMH factory. That would not be happening if they had anything promising with Lithium batteries.

Think about this. The NiMH battery in the Prius will maybe carry the car a couple miles. It weighs in just over 90 lbs. It costs somewhere between $2500 and $6000 to replace. Hard to get an honest figure from Toyota. Even at the least amount a Plug in Prius would be $25k more. There are some cheapo PHEV conversions supposedly coming out for $10k that will carry the car 10 miles on electric.

I'm with those that see more than just a few obstacles in the way of the Volt being mainstream.

tpe

I didn't realize that Toyota had pulled back from Li-ion. Everything that I've read recently says that they still plan on going to this chemistry in 2010. I also thought that this new plant they were building would be producing both NiMH and Li-ion batteries.

The problem I see with Toyota is that they seem determined to produce their batteries in house, i.e. through Matsushita/Panasonic. That approach may ultimately end up being the best from a financial perspective but it won't necessarily get them to the market as quickly as a company like GM that looked outside amongst all the contenders. I believe there are companies who's Li-ion battery technology is considerably ahead of where Toyota is right now.

After all the negative PR GM got over it's EV1 leases I'd be very surprised if they leased the Volt. Maybe the battery pack.

larsb

They have not pulled back from lithium. This is as of June 11, 2008:

'Yota goes with lithium

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) battery joint venture will start producing longer-lasting lithium-ion batteries in 2009 as it aims to roll out more electric cars over the next few years.

Toyota, the world's top maker of gasoline-electric hybrids, is keen to bring such vehicles into the mainstream by lowering their costs as more consumers around the world demand higher fuel economy amid record-high energy prices.

The battery venture with Matsushita Electric Industrial Co (6752.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) currently produces nickel-metal hydride batteries used in Toyota's hybrid vehicles. It is building two new factories to bring annual output capacity to 1 million batteries around 2010.

Full-scale production of lithium-ion batteries would start in 2010, Toyota said on Wednesday, declining to disclose planned output capacity.

AND: They are also looking BEYOND lithium to "whatever is next":

'Yota plans for Future

If you can believe it (and we think you can), Toyota is already hard at work on a new battery system to replace its lithium-ion units currently slated for use in upcoming models. According to a report in Automotive News Europe, the company is hoping to adopt a more advanced battery for its hybrid vehicles in about 12 years as part of its Global Vision 2020 plan. The automaker won't say what technology it plans on moving towards, though it has suggested that air-zinc batteries could be a possible solution for maintaining its dominance in the hybrid vehicle market. In June the company will launch a new division dedicated to developing technologies for future cell power, while its lithium-ion vehicles will hit the roads around 2010.

gagrice

Our resident Toyota guru says that we may not see Li-Ion except in specialty higher priced hybrids after 2010. That NiMH is the battery of choice for the next few years.

Like you always remind us. Unless you see it direct from Toyota DON"T believe it. So that kind of tosses what you posted.

This might interest you from the above article:

Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, chief engineer for the original Prius, told Reuters Toyota would continue to make most of its hybrids in Japan due to the difficulty of making key components abroad.

larsb

Gary says, "Our resident Toyota guru says that we may not see Li-Ion except in specialty higher priced hybrids after 2010. That NiMH is the battery of choice for the next few years."

That's true for NOW. But as soon as 'Yota gets what they believe to be an affordable, safe, and rightly sized Li-Ion battery, it will be in cars on the road. They are already promising it for fleets in Japan AND in the Good Ole U.S.of A.

As Gary requested - from the MOUTH OF 'YOTA

As a part of its commitment to the concept of sustainable mobility, Watanabe said that Toyota will build and deliver what he called "a significant fleet" of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) that rely on lithium-ion batteries to a variety of global fleet customers.

A large part of that PHEV fleet will be sent to fleet customers in the U.S., Watanabe said. Toyota will deliver its PHEVs as part of the acceleration of its global plug-in hybrid research and development program, scheduled to begin late next year.
Indeed, early iterations of the PHEVs were planned for use transporting Toyota executives to the show this week, Detroit's notorious January weather permitting, and also for limited use by select members of the media - again, weather permitting.

GM better hurry if they want to beat 'Yota to a production-worthy, usable Li-Ion technology. They are a little behind right now I think.

tpe

Even if Toyota and/or GM deliver vehicles with Li-ion battery packs in 2010 it will be dismissed by some people until they've been around for 10-15 years with bullet-proof reliability. And even if they accomplish this they will still be dismissed because there is some Mercedes or Lexus that is running great after 30 years.

gagrice

You would think I was from Missouri. Of course that is all depending on price point. My skepticism grew about the Prius when they went through the ceiling price wise. I just don't see them as a safe buy for the average buyer. And especially the long term buyer. For the lease addict they are fine. I am just too tight with my cash to throw it away to be a first guinea pig for GM or Toyota. Although I did waste about $3 grand on that GMC Hybrid PU. Weak moment on my part.

tpe

I'm personally not an early adopter. However I'm not totally averse to risk and am willing to be a fairly early adopter.

I want GM to meet it's schedule and I hope for the Volt to deliver on it's promise. I see myself as being a potential 2012 customer.

gagrice

I am likewise hoping for GM to move back to the place of prominence. The Volt could be the key to that return. I would bet they beat Toyota on this one. Toyota is playing safe on the Li-Ion. They are taking a wait and see attitude.

gwmort

I think Toyota knows the direction they will have to move. I think they just need to recoup more of the initial investment they made pioneering the tech we have now before they move on. It really makes business sense, they let GM make up some ground (it wil take years of good performance for GM Yota's green/quality creds), meanwhile reaping the return on their last investment and preparing for the launch that puts them on the cutting edge again.

reddroverr

The Prius is the bird in the hand so to speak. The development costs have already been sunk. We do know that they probably have another 2-3 years of edge there, regardless. As is pointed out they are moving ahead with development...it is a new ball game for the auto makers.

1stpik

The Volt may actually turn out to be cool. But will General Motors survive long enough to build it?

With the stock below $10 per share, and market cap. of 5.6 billion, it must be an attractive takeover target.

PF_Flyer

I think it's clear that GM's survival will result in a very trimmed down company. Takeover target? When stock prices fall, that's certainly a possibility. Heck, even when stock prices just stagnate. That's what attracted a takeover at Anheuser Busch.

I truely hope they're not hanging the fate of the company on the Volt. All your eggs in one basket is never a good idea. And given the emotional climate in the markets right now, and the hurdles yet to be cleared for the Volt, things could turn from "worried about bad" to bad in a hurry. Detroit is no longer the automotive mecca it once was. Good news, Bad News

Back to the Volt, even assuming that battery problems are overcome, I'm having a hard time seeing the mass appeal of an electric vehicle with a range of 40 miles at a price of $40,000+

The price alone is enough to keep me disinterested.

nedzel

"Back to the Volt, even assuming that battery problems are overcome, I'm having a hard time seeing the mass appeal of an electric vehicle with a range of 40 miles at a price of $40,000+ "

Just to be clear, it will have a range of over 300 miles. The 40 mile figure is how far it will go on battery power alone until the gas engine starts up.

I agree about the price, however. At $25k sales would be through the roof. At $30k, it would still attract a great deal of sales. $40k is another matter.