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BBC
So 12% a year could be right, depending on whose numbers you believe.
Now that there's a flood happening in the midwest, corn country, you're seeing corn now at record prices - it's a bad idea compounded by bad timing.
Do I need to provide a link or does that make sense?
What this is saying is that ethanol production is causing a 1% increase in food inflation. In 2007 food inflated at a 4% rate, so ethanol is 25% of the increase. Food inflation over the last 3 years averages closer to 3%, making ethanol responsible for something closer to 30% or so.
I live next to Warrenville and I can tell you Coskata isn't making that much ethanol currently; in fact it is a very, very small facility / office. They are NOT producing as much as you think, or as that article states. There was some fanfare for a few days but after that reality set in and the facts came out. This is for the future, not right now, and is a first step of many to make this a viable alternative, not a oil / gas replacement. (Before you say anything, I know you didn't say that).
The demonstration plant is not going to be fully up and running for quite some time - in fact they're taking their time building the facility, if they've even started. Bolsen himself stated, not only in the article but also the local rags, there is no rush in cranking the plant out & getting it up & running.
GM may be using the fuel but it is not doing long-term testing or fleet runs. Driving vehicles a very limited number of times around their proving grounds is nothing.
While I'm not trying to be a downer I am being a realist. This is a wait-n-see thing; let's not jump on the bandwagon yet like Bush, farmers and Agri-monoliths did on the corn-based ethanol. I can't be bullish on this, or the plug-in hybrids (which in itself is another can of worms - I won't even get into the grid structure), right now. But I agree this is a good first step, but nothing to go ga-ga over...yet
Hopefully the small production plant will be up and running within 2 years and work. We cannot continue on oil forever and there is no other short term solution other than everybody sitting at home.
uh, what about a hybrid?
isn't electricity an alternative to gas?
GM is way behind the curve on bringing something to the masses.
The Pruis recently announced the sale of the Millionth vehicle!
How many hybrids are on the road? All those used vehicles take gas or ethanol. It would take years to get all those gas sucking vehicles replaced with hybrids. Hybrids are only a partial solution. We need to provide fuel for the cars that are out there and the ones being built.
isn't electricity an alternative to gas?
How much extra electricity do you think we have? There really is very little suppplemental capacity out there. That is why many areas have brown outs. The plants cannot keep up and it would take 10 years to get more capacity.
Hybrids and plug ins will help but to really significantly reduce gas imports we need to replace it and hybrids/electricity will not make that much of a dent.
62,
I know you're keen on ethanol, but this is where I don't see it. An implication in your posting "We need to provide fuel..." implies that ethanol meets this need. But corn-based ethanol produces almost no additional energy vs. the oil needed to farm, fertilize, harvest, refine, and deliver the ethanol. It will take other plant species such as switchgrass to get more energy than put into the process, and there is no current infrastructure for those sources in this country whatsoever. I don't see how that's going to make any significant difference in at least 5 years (and there are doubts even beyond that...don't get me started on the availability of water and land!). In those 5 years new hybrids could make just as big a difference.
Agree with your comment on the electrical grid - if the Volt is successful and sells in significant numbers, then a whole new problem will be created re: the need for more electricity. That could lead to more nuclear, but there's another 5-10 years (if lucky) for that to come on line.
The current situation is analogous to the airlines and high fuel costs. They are a) flying less capacity; b) retiring older guzzling planes; c) buying newer, more efficient aircraft such as Boeing's 787. The analogy in the car market would be a) drive less; b) retire many trucks and SUVs, earlier than would have been done previously; c) buy smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles. I expect the US automotive market to look much more like Europe in 5 years.
DETROIT - The good news, the hopeful news about General Motors was buried in coverage of Chairman Rick Wagoner's speech to the corporation's board meeting earlier this month. The bad news -- four truck plants will be closed -- and news of selling or changing Hummer dominated headlines for days. Wagoner also announced that GM will build a new line of four-cylinder engines, 1.0- to 1.4-liters in displacement, in Flint, Michigan, beginning in 2010. The engine range will be called Family Zero, and will include the gas powerplant for the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid and the turbocharged 1.4-liter for the 2011 Chevy Cobalt replacement.
It's rumored that the Volt, initially displayed with a 1.0-liter four to be used as a generator for its plug-in electric lithium-ion battery power motor, will instead use a 1.4-liter engine as a sufficiently powerful backup to the all-electric drive. GM has said that the electric drivetrain is good for running up to 40 miles on a full charge.
The 1.4-liter turbo for the Cobalt replacement will launch in the Cobalt next year. The Cobalt replacement, Wagoner said, will get "nine miles per gallon more than Chevy's entry in this segment today." Add nine mpg to the current 2.2-liter, five-speed Cobalt's EPA numbers and you get 33-mpg city and/or 42-mpg highway (Wagoner did not specify whether the improvement would be for both measurements). That amounts to 36.5 mpg combined.
And the Chevy Aveo replacement, the prime competitor for Ford's upcoming 2010 Fiesta B-segment (also Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris and Nissan Versa), will be powered by a naturally aspirated 1.4-liter Family Zero four.
The Chevy Volt, the Cobalt replacement and the Aveo replacement all are set to begin production in 2010 as 2011 models. The Volt and Cobalt replacement will be made on the new global Delta compact platform, and the Aveo replacement will be built on the Gamma platform, a smaller-than-Delta architecture combining engineering design efforts of GM's Daewoo operations in South Korea with Opel in Europe.
Delta also will include the Opel/Vauxhall/Saturn Astra and Opel/Vauxhall Zafira MPV. Gamma will include Opel/Vauxhall Corsa and Meriva, one of which may come here as an entry-level Saturn.
What about the smaller Family Zero engines? Here's more big news for Flint, the city made (in)famous by Michael Moore's 1989 film, "Roger & Me." The 1.0-liter, three-cylinder version, which is rumored to be closer to 900-cc in displacement, will be used in a production version of the Chevrolet Beat concept. That car replaces the Chevy Spark, which was based on the Daewoo Matiz and forms the basis for a Chinese copy called the Chery QQ. Bottom line is that the Beat is for many reasons, including overall size and bumper standards, not ready for the U.S. market, which means that Flint will be exporting 1.0-liter Family Zero fours for use in other countries.
Frank Weber, vehicle line executive for the Chevy Volt, mentions "family zero" (lower case letters theirs) June 23 in an online interview about the plug-in hybrid at gm-volt.com
There were ~70 plants making corn based ethanol 2 years ago when gas was $2. Now there are 134 with 77 more being built or expanding. Ethanol plants are a lot faster to build than refinerys or nuclear plants or any other fuel / electrical plants. There are huge numbers of vehicles out there certified for ethanol and do not tell anybody but even uncertified ones will run on ethanol though harm may be done to them in the long run.
Will we become more like Europe? Yes, but Europe is also feeling the pain of higher gas prices and it will probably get worse and they will also be looking for solutions. Then again if history repeats itself gas will be back down under $3 and we will go back to our old ways.
Bzzt. 1.0 turbo four would be a better option. Heck, they ought to just turbo/mhd everything and get it over with.
GM, hitting new lows, looks to reverse fortunes
General Motors stock fell in eight of the past nine trading sessions, leaving it with a market capitalization of $7.3 billion, down from $14.1 billion at the beginning of the year. That makes GM worth less than Starbucks, The Gap, and video game retailer GameStop, to name a few companies. (Los Angeles Times, free registration) GM rolled out broad incentives yesterday to reverse sharply falling sales, and said it would cut production and raise prices 3.5 percent on 2009 models. GM is at risk of losing the top U.S. auto seller crown to Toyota this month, as Toyota has steadily been gaining ground on its U.S. rivals. Toyota has a market capitalization of $154 billion. (The Wall Street Journal)
Regards,
OW
Analyst: Biofuels' Role on Food Prices Underestimated
An ethanol plant here in Idaho just filed for bankruptcy btw. (link)
I think GM best not put all their mpg eggs in one ethanol basket, especially if the switch from corn to stuff like switchgrass doesn't happen fast. But you'll have the same effect on food prices if existing crop land is converted to biofuel acreage.
The Ethanol - E85 FlexFuel board is probably a better place to hash out the ethanol stuff that's not GM related though.
The data showed a food increase of 2-3% per year due to bio fuels. Gas has gone up ~33% in the same time period.
Poop is not the only feed stock for ethanol. Just had two trees taken down and the chips are going somewhere like a landfill. Could have made a bunch of ethanol.
Guess I am done on this subject here! GM has invested much in the E85 process and we will see where it goes. This is really a tough subject since we really as a country have to decide what it is worth to get away from imported oil. From what I can see here it is not a priority an there are really no palatable solutions.
If we are only building small demonstrators then I don't think we're going to see any significant capacity for non-corn based ethanol for 3-5 years. I guess we disagree on how fast this is going to happen.
Europe is also feeling the pain of higher gas prices and it will probably get worse and they will also be looking for solutions.
True to a degree, but from the following link
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2004/11/b258795.html
"The center estimates that nearly 40 percent of the increased price American consumers are paying for oil is attributable to the weak dollar, even after factoring in the effects of increased global demand from countries such as China."
Which means that Europe's increases are barely over half of our own - due to our government's disastrous fiscal policies -- courtesy of GW (but that gets us into politics :surprise: ).
Then again if history repeats itself gas will be back down under $3 and we will go back to our old ways.
Oil could drop back to say, $100/bbl or so, but it's doubtful that we're going to see a drop to where it was two years ago. Our governmental spending will guarantee that. I have little doubt that in five years it will be over $100/bbl and probably higher than today, perhaps much higher.
First big production facility in 2011. It will take 5 years to get enough plants to make a big dent in oil imports but there is nothing else that will be faster in that time to replace oil. If they can really make ethanol out of garbage for under $1 this technology will be going up real fast.
Coskata announced in February that it will commission a full-scale, 50 million - 100 million gallon-per-year commercial plant by the year 2011. This facility is being planned in parallel with the construction of the demonstration facility and is expected to break ground this year.
Coskata leverages proprietary microorganisms and efficient bioreactor designs in a three-step conversion process that can turn virtually any carbon-based feedstock into ethanol, from anywhere in the world.
Coskata has been eager to reach this milestone, because it will be a significant demonstration before building our first commercial plant that we can produce ethanol from non-food based sources for less than $1 a gallon. This facility is being built with some of the leading gasification technology, supplied by Alter NRG, and in one of the most progressive states for next generation ethanol.
Almost three-quarters of U.S. consumers are interested in having hybrid technology in their next vehicle, but the added cost seems to be too high for many, a study shows.
In J.D. Power and Associates' 2008 U.S. Automotive Emerging Technologies Study, 72 percent of consumers surveyed said they were interested in the technology before they learned how much it costs -- placing it fifth among the technologies ranked.
When they were told the $5,000 price, though, that number dropped to 46 percent and the technology fell to eighth place.
The annual survey showed that Americans continue to be most interested in such optional safety technologies as blind-spot detection, backup assistance and active-cornering headlights.
But entertainment and information features are gaining ground. Mike Marshall, the study's director, said the main reason is that young consumers are entering the market.
"Up until last year, safety features dominated," he said. "There is a general difference in terms of what the young consumers -- say 30 and down -- what they've been exposed to, what they expect."
GM. The Worst of Times has befallen this once-proud icon of American manufacturing muscle. The company is burning through cash at a prodigious rate (around $1 billion a month). Its share price has dropped to the lowest point in three decades. Its truck and SUV sales have nearly stopped, and it is shutting down plants accordingly. And it has contracted Citibank to help it shop its Hummer division around the world (Citibank?). This company is at the ugliest point in its once-proud history. How bad is it? Toyota's profits in North America last year were more than the total market value of GM. Not Good. This week GM announced a $1,000 average price hike for 2009 (the first of many price increases coming from all auto manufacturers in the coming months), and it's also offering 72-month free financing on all of its trucks and a variety of its cars. The bright spot? The vehicles excluded from the sale are the Chevrolet Cobalt and Malibu, the Buick Enclave and the GMC Acadia.
The bright spot is that GM is doing very well outside of NA. Doubt if there is enough profit there though to really make up the losses here.
When General Motors Corp. in September asked Richard Duff to help create
the exterior of a new Buick prototype sedan called Invicta, the
32-year-old designer jumped at the chance.
Having grown up admiring old Buicks at the car shows he went to with his
father, Mr. Duff embraced the project as a way to help the Detroit-based
auto maker revive one of its storied brands.
"I wanted to come up with something my aunts and uncles would actually
want to buy," says Mr. Duff.
But that was only half of the challenge for Mr. Duff, who had been
working on production models for some of GM's other brands for the past
several years.
In addition to appealing to the scads of Americans who had crossed the
105-year-old Buick brand off their shopping list long ago, Mr. Duff's
design had to appeal to a big chunk of the millions of people who buy
new cars annually in China, which is closing in on the U.S. as the
world's biggest car market.
Designers working 12 hours apart collaborated and compromised on the
Invicta design, holding meetings early in the morning in one country and
late in the evening on the other. The time difference helped speed the
design process along: Before going home for the night, U.S. designers
would leave work for their Chinese counterparts, and it would be done by
the time they arrived in the office the next morning.
While the bulk of the work was done in Michigan, stylists in China made
adjustments and suggestions aimed at appealing to their market. "It was
a very interesting, almost cultural experiment to see if we could find
middle ground" on the design, says Mr. Welburn.
General Motors wants a tax credit of up to $7,000 for buyers of the
Chevrolet Volt, GM's vice president for global program management told a
congressional caucus here last week.
That would jump-start plug-in hybrid sales when the Volt comes to market
in late 2010.
"What we favor is actually a sliding scale depending on how much battery
you have on board," said Jon Lauckner. "When I talk about $6,000 to
$7,000, we're talking about a battery that's at least two times the size
of a typical conversion plug-in or even a plug-in hybrid that we would
offer."
Early buyers of the Toyota Prius got a $3,150 credit.
Tax credits can boost consumer demand until economies of scale bring
down retail prices, Lauckner said. "Customers will have to pay a price
premium for these vehicles, at least initially," he said.
Lauckner said the credit should be based on "the amount of storage
capability and therefore how much petroleum is avoided." He suggested a
scale that would slide from "maybe a low of $3,500 for vehicles where
there is an electric assist to a vehicle like the Chevy Volt, which is
going to run 40 miles under all conditions electrically with a lot
bigger battery."
This styling note also caught my eye:
"He says he expects the influences of Chinese design, including ancient art and dragons, to be exported to the rest of the world."
I can see the ads now - the new LaCrosse has more auspicious Feng Shui than the Toyota Avalon....
I'm not sure how you think that ethanol is going to be produced from garbage anytime soon.
This article says the corn based plants are all on hold because, despite all the subsidies from the US government, they can't do it provitably. And there is no mention of perhaps building the plant to use garbage instead.
"Taxpayers might be asking themselves this same question. Why is the federal government subsidizing a fledgling industry that refuses to operate the very plants that are supposed to help the nation curb its petroleum addiction while offering price relief at the pump? Doesn't every little drop help? Apparently not. Ethanol producers have yet to demonstrate that they are engaged in a commercially viable enterprise -- not even when backed by generous handouts from Washington"
you're probably right about taking the Ethanol debate to the 'ethanol forum', but I think GM, in all it's wisdom, is one of the biggest proponets of ethanol in the auto industry.
I imagine there are board members from GM and the Ethanol lobby smoking big cigars and yakking it up on some golf course in the Carribean while their truck plants are shutting down.
Per the link below they already have about 20 plants producing Ethanol. With corn prices and the current flooding issues I can see why they have delayed any new plants.
http://www.verasun.com/Facilities/index.cfm
Grim times for all the automotive sellers. But when you've been burning through cash of late like GM has, well you're sitting on a slippery slope.
Who knows though...
But it's cheaper to get one's fix over at the CarStock Exchange
Too bad they fixed the Portfolio page - for a whole day there I was number 1 (and I guess everyone else was too, lol). I was less that a percentage point away from cracking the top ten % for June.
I was looking at GMs stock this morning trying to decide if I should buy it because it was so cheap or short it because it had to go lower.
I was sitting there trying to figure out what to do when the stock spiked and I decided that it was just too volatile to even touch right then. I could have made a quick few hundred dollars on a flip trade but I always get nervous trying to take advantage of such fast market timing. I had been waiting for the GM sales data to come out and once I saw the spike I knew they had come out much better then expected.
I was actually surprised that GM held onto a little bit of a gain today. I would expect for the stock to continue to fall tomorrow.
Merrill says GM bankruptcy "not impossible"
Wednesday July 2, 10:38 am ET
By Soyoung Kim
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (NYSE:GM - News) will need to raise as much as $15 billion in cash to shore up liquidity and bankruptcy is "not impossible" if the U.S. auto market continues to slump, Merrill Lynch said on Wednesday.
link title
Regards,
OW
The Journal also commented on how Wagonner has managed to hang on so long - the company share price has plunged 83% during his tenure, but he's been the Teflon CEO.
Sorry, I guess the GM cars are too good for the sheeple who want flaccid, dull, lifeless, soulless, ugly, alien transportation appliance capsules. Good God I wish I was born 50 years earlier so I could most likely be dead before I lived to see this day!
To me, GM is a symbol of America. To lose it is like terrorists blowing up the Statue of Liberty or a landslide destroying Mt. Rushmore. I weep for this once-great land!
They have milked guys like you for too long.
While the public waits in line for the Honda Civic and hybrids worthy of the hybrid badge, GM has nothing much to offer on it's lot but a $55,000 hybrid Suburban.
To me as well, GM is symbolic of America. Overweight, heavily in debt and too reiliant on "cheap" fosil fuel.
The strategy, wisdom and execution of GM is reflective in their stock price.
I'm guessing they either go under or are bailed out by the government much like Chrysler once was.
Bottom Line: Lighten up on the rhetoric.
Regards,
OW
Any major disruption in the supply of Dodges and/or Fords is going to give a major boost to GM I think, especially among whatever truck sales are left.
I am firmly against any bailout for automakers, but I am also confident that GM will not need one. Unlike Ford and Chrysler, they aren't out of cash and mortgaged to the hilt. If they truly need $15 billion to continue operations, I think they will be able to borrow it.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Chevrolet (supermarket brand) - a definite keeper, they must focus on competing directly against Toyota (and Ford) with Chevy.
Buick/Pontiac/GMC - mid level - these really have to go, except for GMC as a seller of heavy duty (commercial) trucks. Help turn all these stores into certified preowned stores and service centers as current models end production over the next 3-5 years. These dealers will probably end up importing Chinese vehicles eventually. If GM plays investor in this process by keeping the channels open they'll at least make some money rather than just being forced to cede market for no return.
Cadillac - a definite keeper. Pontiac could be a "value/performance" brand paired with Cadillac although the demise of Mercury seems to argue against this approach.
Then they still have Hummer, Saab and Saturn. These all must go.
Saab is a lost cause. They need to finish it off except as a regional nameplate in Europe for rebadged Opels (a la Vauxhall).
Saturn could have been shut down years ago, and really doesn't serve any purpose today. It has no value as a nameplate they could sell. Reinvesting in Saturn this decade was a big blunder.
Buick has valuable brand equity in China. Sell the nameplate along with Holden and Hummer and license it back to cover production of current models. Take an equity stake in any overseas manufacturing operations which seem to do well and focus on taking whatever profits or equity growth is to be had. Yes, this amounts to moving American production to China (or India), but such is the world we live in. Plus, it's already happening.
This is drastic wrenching change. But the time for adjustments is over. GM owns assets it can sell to keep the lights on. But they need to move now!
But if you go back to posts here from the beginning of Edmunds time you will see many loyalist making the same assertions that GM is coming back with some excellent products and they will turn it around.........
the ship has been sinking slowly for sometime now and they are in a precarious position with the current economy and fuel costs where they are. GM has relied heavily on supporting itself with the kinds of vehicle that are suddenly out of favor.
The Volt isn't going to save this company