Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?
hpmctorque
Member Posts: 4,600
in Volkswagen
Volkswagen recently said that by 2010 it can produce 10 million vehicles and pass Toyota and General Motors, to become the world's largest car company.
According to the (London) Sunday Times, "To those who suggest that closing a 3m vehicle gap (Toyota produced 9.4m last year) is a very tall order, company management explains that, in 2006, the number of conventional passenger cars made by Volkswagen and Toyota was fairly similar -- 5.2m for Volkswagen and 5.5m for Toyota -- and that the difference is made up by 4x4s, people carriers' and light trucks."
Volkswagen introduced a full range of these multi-purpose vehicles only recently, but apparently they'll play an important role in VW's future growth.
The big question I have on this is whether VW's more exciting designs and dynamic driving experience can offset Toyota's superior reliability record, and/or whether VW can narrow the reliability gap sufficiently to reach this ambitious goal. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility that GM may retain its #1 position (or regain it, if it loses it in '08). Richard Waggoner has publicly stated that GM will not passively concede its world sales leadership to Toyota, but will, instead, fight to retain it. Official statistics indicate that GM squeaked by Toyota in '07, but, as we know, Toyota has the momentum.
One thing to consider is that because Toyota has been so strong in the U.S., surpassing Chrysler, then Ford in our market, we may tend to overestimate Toyota's strength vis-a-vis GM and VW worldwide.
Your thoughts on all this?
According to the (London) Sunday Times, "To those who suggest that closing a 3m vehicle gap (Toyota produced 9.4m last year) is a very tall order, company management explains that, in 2006, the number of conventional passenger cars made by Volkswagen and Toyota was fairly similar -- 5.2m for Volkswagen and 5.5m for Toyota -- and that the difference is made up by 4x4s, people carriers' and light trucks."
Volkswagen introduced a full range of these multi-purpose vehicles only recently, but apparently they'll play an important role in VW's future growth.
The big question I have on this is whether VW's more exciting designs and dynamic driving experience can offset Toyota's superior reliability record, and/or whether VW can narrow the reliability gap sufficiently to reach this ambitious goal. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility that GM may retain its #1 position (or regain it, if it loses it in '08). Richard Waggoner has publicly stated that GM will not passively concede its world sales leadership to Toyota, but will, instead, fight to retain it. Official statistics indicate that GM squeaked by Toyota in '07, but, as we know, Toyota has the momentum.
One thing to consider is that because Toyota has been so strong in the U.S., surpassing Chrysler, then Ford in our market, we may tend to overestimate Toyota's strength vis-a-vis GM and VW worldwide.
Your thoughts on all this?
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Volkswagen has already established a firm foundation in China. If their market continues to grow the way it is now VW will be in good shape. Number 1 by 2010? No, I don't think so but I could see them selling that many cars not long after that.
That said, GM isn't exactly unheard of in China either. Buick there has the market segment that they'd like to have over here.
VW may very well overtake Toyota and GM in the world market if it captures the majority share of the Chinese market, but it won't overtake either in the NA market.
It will take many years of reliable Volkswagens to get rid of that image.
I very nearly bought a 2000 Passat when I got my Accord. Having once owned a Rabbit I got cold feet.... Maybe just as well. The only VW dealer within convenient range burned down a few months later.
PS
I could have sold 10 at that price. My phone rang off the hook for a month after the ad was pulled.
GM now dominates the China market having wrested it away from VW. I don't see how VW comes back in China, a araket where their own domestics are beginning to show strength.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Don't count out Honda - I know they are smaller than the industry giants right now, but they just keep growing and growing, even as the rest of the industry suffers.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Volkswagen's U.S. plant may make Porsches, Audis
VW may face the same problem as the domestics on the quality issue - it takes a few years to trash your rep, but FIFTY to get your rep back, if you EVER recover completely.
I think it's totally unacceptable that VWs had problems that couldn't be fixed at all by the dealers, and other problems for which parts were backed up 6-8 weeks or more while the cars sat undriveable.
Any company that would act with that little quality control and that little forethought would make me hesitate STRONGLY before buying one of their cars, even a decade later.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Why is this even a serious forum?
All you have to do is follow the Honda and Toyota threads to see this happens to both of them also.
I believe VW is number one is several markets. The EU, South America, Mexico and China. Plus they are a lot more enjoyable to drive than anything Toyota builds.
That is the exclusive domain of VW and Ford (Firestone recall), I believe. And in Ford's case, the vehicles could be driven (at the owner's peril), although their recommendation was not to.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
But they DON'T.
Sometimes a person might narrow it down to two cars, and choose the "more fun to drive" car over the other primary contender.
But no one I know or have ever heard of starts out their car search by saying, "I'm going to go buy the MOST FUN TO DRIVE car I can find."
At least not for a primary vehicle. Maybe a middle-aged man who wants a fun sports car might use that as a primary decision point.
Ride and Handling never even come into play at all with most people. Car suspensions have advanced to the point where almost every car has a good ride and handles ADEQUATELY.
Unless you are living on or commuting over or across a LONG curvy mountain road on a daily basis, ride and handling are not big sticking points for the VAST majority of people.
Survey 1
Survey 2
Survey 3
I'm having a hard time finding a survey that even puts "fun to drive" in the conversation at all.
Can you find one?
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
VW chooses Chattanooga for new factory (Inside Line)
It kills me with VW. They always have nicer looking product than pretty much anyone they compete with but they have spotty reliability and expensive repairs.
I have dealt with two VW dealers. One in Portland where I bought my 2005 Passat and Drew VW here in San Diego. When my gas cover was broken by a gas station attendant in Oregon, I brought it to Drew VW in CA for replacement. They replaced it under warranty and gave me a rental car overnight as they had to paint the cover to match the car. I thought that was great service from a dealer that had not sold the car. I did the only service for the time I owned the car at Drew. It was a lot cheaper than service on my Sequoia at the Toyota dealer. And Toyota used very cheap 30 W dino oil. I was not impressed with the Toyota service. They politely told me what they could not do for me.
We may need to change the title to "Can Porsche overtake Toyota and GM..."
What a hoot if Porsche were the #1 automaker in the world...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
It is just that Porsche has more money these days than it knows what to do with, and so it has been buying its way into a large stake in VW. If it can get its hands on more, last I heard, it could get a controlling share. And that may be old news, I haven't been keeping up with it that closely.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Volkswagen posts record sales through July 2008 thanks to expanding regions
Nate_Martinez
Volkswagen is breaking its own sales records during the first half of 2008 and has posted a sales volume of 3.79 million vehicles worldwide from January to July. Last month, Europe's largest automaker moved 521,500 global units, a significant achievement given the struggling automotive market. During the first seven months of the year, 2.18 million cars were sold to European buyers, with 624,000 going to Germany alone. The only surprising drop in sales (down 4.5%) came from the rest of Western Europe that took delivery of 1.22 million cars during the same seven-month time span.
Much of VW's growth can be attributed to its appeal in the BRIC regions (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and areas of Eastern Europe. China is a close second behind VW's usual best-selling market, Germany, and is expected to surpass it by the end of the year.
"These record deliveries and growing market shares have been made possible by our growth strategy, particularly in the BRIC markets, and our model diversity, even though the general situation on global automotive markets continues to deteriorate," said Detlef Wittig, executive vice president Group Sales and Marketing for Volkswagen.
Here are the sales figures straight from the horse's mouth. All numbers cover the first seven months of 2008 and each percentage is compared to last year's sales amount for the same period.
VW said it continues to expect that its sales, revenue and operating profit for the full year will be ahead of 2007, “despite the dramatic deterioration in global economic conditions and the automotive industry environment in recent months,” said CFO Hans Dieter Poetsch.
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/1000330/vw-sales-profits-on-the-rise/
Will VW pass GM this year on their way to besting Toyota World wide? VW the only major that shows an increase in profits this year.
But this: wants to sell around 800,000 units a year by 2018
is an unrealistic goal for the U.S. The prices of the cars are too high to compete well in the segments they are perceived to inhabit. VW wants us to believe that their cars are worth a premium over the Accords and the Civics of the world, but the American buyer has disagreed for some time.
Now the same thing is happening with crossovers: $29,5 for the cheapest AWD Tiguan??? They will never compete with Escape, CRV, and RAV that way.
And they will never be very successful at lowering their prices and competing on volume until they get more than the Tennessee plant on-line in production in North America. The dollar-euro exchange will hold them in check until then. I figure it will take them a few years to bring Tennessee on-line, and another five to get another plant built if they can even justify the expense, so you're already pretty much at 2018 before the second plant can even boost numbers very much.
Lots of companies, GM and Toyota prominent among them, have focused too much on market share (North American or global) at their peril. The goal should be PROFITS, and profitable sales.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Probably true as those are cheapo made vehicles. The real key to big numbers in the US will be the plant in TN. And diesel engines. I would look at the Tiguan with a small diesel engine as a runabout. The Touareg with a V6 diesel would also be a good choice. I think VW is still number one in the EU and China. China will pass US up in importance in the not too distant future. I have no idea what VW is trying to do selling Chrysler mini vans with their logo. That should cheapen the brand a bunch. They still have the only small diesel that passes the 50 State emissions without Urea injection.
The Dollar value is helping currently with US sales from Germany. Only time will tell.
So, will VW likewise delay the new Chattanooga plant that's not nearly as far along, or try to take this opportunity to position itself as the lead automaker in North America in a year or three?
#1 by 2010? thats a year away, 2015, Yes
I think the European VW van is underpowered for the American market and overpriced due to the poor euro-dollar exchange. So they elected to have Chrysler build full-size minivans domestically for them instead. I would love to know how sales are so far for that model. One thing I read implied they were off to a good start.
I just don't see VW overtaking Toyota in global sales, unless they buy some more foreign car companies and combine the sales totals.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I have family in Chattanooga and it sounds like the infrastructure work is going ahead as planned (roads, water, sewer, etc.). But VW is dropping hints that actual construction may be delayed or the size of the factory may be smaller than planned. Lots of people are holding their breath hoping it doesn't fall apart.