Let me respond to your take on the VUE hybrid. If they use the same hybrid system that is in my GMC hybrid PU. Yes I think it is a waste of money. Do I think the $1000 they charged me for the hybrid option on my truck was a waste? Give me some time and I will let you know. Do I like the way it starts instantly and very quietly? Yes I do. I think with the four 20 amp 120 Volt AC outlets the grand was not a big waste of money. Do I consider the GMC hybrid in the same sense as a Prius or HCH, NO. If the VUE uses Honda's IMA I will be interested to see if it gets a big enough gain to warrant the premium. I still think that a diesel is a simpler 25-40% gain in FE, without all the added batteries, electronics and motors.
quote gagrice-"I still think that a diesel is a simpler 25-40% gain in FE, without all the added batteries, electronics and motors."-end quote
Diesel gets much more complex when you start trying to clean the emissions using PM filters, catalysts, etc.
The fact remains that any modern car which attempts to have both high MPG and clean emissions will be required to have a lot of complexity.
Cars are not getting less complex, but are moving toward much MORE complexity in the future. Local mechanics are going to have to pay for the training or be left behind.
Today's auto shop owners may heed the advice of the experts and learn maintenance on cars of the future. "Hybrids are going to be a source of business," Bright says, "and they are a source of income."
If they were breaking down in droves, we would know it. They just aren't.
You cannot be reading the same threads that I have. Hardly a week goes by without a complaint about the CVT in the HCH. As these hybrids get a few miles on them the complexity will become an issue. I am not saying that all cars are not complex. Most have way more crap than is needed for basic transportation. I wonder if given the choice and asked to pay the premium how many would opt for all the airbags, crumple zones, skid control, ABS etc, etc?
If you think that Toyota or any other automaker, is going to publish the failure rate of any of their vehicles you are mistaken. If I could read Japanese I would check out their auto blog sites to find what is failing and what is not.
Local mechanics are going to have to pay for the training or be left behind.
The dealers will have to pay for training. And as many Prius owners can attest. The good ones are few and far between. I doubt in a city the size of yours that any independent will work on any problem you may have with your HCH. Changing oil and spark plugs has not changed a lot. diagnosing why a CVT is jerking seems to have stumped even the Honda engineers.
So with a hybrid that metric is almost meaningless, i.e., you don't even have to use 5th grade math to know that you will not break even. Hollywood types probably don't care now do they?
You know all generalizations are wrong including this one and especially yours above.
My Prius vs a similarly equipped 4c Camry has a $2600 differential. Is this a greater differential than a diesel vs a gasser, hypothetically yes, if one were available. But there are none in the low $20K range in a midsize vehicle.
That $2600 premium OTOH is recoverable in 3 yrs for me and after that it's a 'money-maker'. This is with 90% of my driving at rural highway speeds of 62-63 mph. With more city driving the recovery period would be shorter yet. Careful about generalizations.
CVT transmissions are not a "hybrid" part, else it would be covered in the hybrid portion of the warranty. They were invented before hybrids hit the road in the USA and are used in non-hybrids also.
A transmission problem is not a hybrid problem, unless every single hybrid uses the same transmission, which you know they dont.
I've got a manual tranny HCH so this is not an issue for me personally, but I am in the minority of owners, and the manual tranny HCH was killed after the 2005 model year.
One can hope that the CVT in the 2006 HCH is a better product than the old one.
Why spend $40 grand on a C class mercedes when you can buy the same transportation- MORE RELIABLE TOO- in a Honda Accord/Toyota Camry. You save over 10 grand people! No one in the media speaks about those disparitites. Everyone here is a speculator because you don't know where this technology (hybrid) will be in ten years. Hybrids like the Prius have been around for nearly ten years (first ones were not imported here). I haven't heard of any failures on critical components. If you don't like the technology, so be it. Don't equate people that buy them as being sheep. They're wiser than you think.
Well for sure, but for me I am specifically comparing hybrid (25,000) vs diesel (18,000) and if you have been following this thread, why BE against a Honda Civic VP 12,500 (Honda Civic Hybrid was 20,000) is almost meaningless for a plain jane commute of 50 miles R/T per day.
I was not specifically comparing your 4 cylinder Camry vs the Prius. However the methodology I have used is infinitely adaptable. So I think to remain on topic, one should be careful about why one thinks certain generalizations might be meaningless. So if you really want to talk turkey to drop some of the emotion then do it in cents per mile driven. I think this is why some rabid pro hybrids advocates have assiduously avoided talking in these specific terms. This was one reason why I elimated the Prius and the Camry for MY specific purposes, purposes I have always delineated when making comparisons on this thread topic. Is it the only way? NO!!! Do I like the Prius and the Camry? YES! But I think the issues I bring up are probably more applicable.
Actually some of the verbiage of the linked article covers some of the issues raised on this cite during the discussion/debate and at times "food" fight (in the Belusi's animal house vein).
The 4 L per 100 km conversion if my tables are correct is 58.8 mpg !!! (USA gal,128 oz) Now that rates a WOO HOO from me! 206 # ft of torque is pretty good for a 1.7 L turbo diesel! Again if the weight is 3,000 #s and UNDER, another WOO HOO! So by process of elimintion I'd say the extra 25% (structural) over my 1.9 turbo diesel is due to the 2 mode hybrid portion, i.e., even diesel's would benefit from an mpg point of view, by being 20 or so % of the time in the OFF mode!!?? My EPA range is 42/49. So if I am getting a range of 44-62 mph, I am guessing a similar % range is possible with this GM model.
I would also expect BETTER higher speed touring over a similar gasser/2 mode hybrid.
The however is the reliability of now the dual mode hybrid. !!?? Cost another obstacle to factor in.
Just to be precise I was only referring to your comment: you don't even have to use 5th grade math to know that you will not break even. I then showed an example of why it was not correct.
Your generalization is wrong. If you stated " in some cases..." or " for certain drivers..." then I agree. But your blanket statement is not true.
For some there is an economic benefit. That's a fact.
You are correct there. I took a quick glance at the Civic problems thread. Honda has had an ongoing problem with the CVT since at least 1999. It was only used in the cheapest Civic HX and the Hybrid. Hmmm, I thought the HCH was supposed to be right up there with the Civic EX. Now the only car with the CVT is the HCH. You may be one of the lucky ones to get a MT HCH. I would hang on to it. Until a great diesel hybrid hits the market.
Well put me down for two! Why the heck is GM dragging its feet wasting time on a hybrid Vue is we can have this? Makes my blood boil that all the Europeans get all the good stuff and we're left with-- ummmm leftovers?
Just received a call from the Ford Motor Corp. in response to a letter I wrote asking
“Does Ford have any intention of bringing a diesel passenger car to the US market in the 2007 or 2008 model years? “
They seemed very interested in what I had to say concerning mileage and economy. I brought to their attention Jeep and VW diesels are on my list for a new car.
Write the auto maker of your choice a letter letting them know you want to see a high mileage diesel in their product line up.
I would hope that Edmunds can help us with this request. How about an online petition that Edmunds can host and we sign on with our interest in this type of product. If there are choices of diesels, hybrids or combinations thereof, the market for fuel efficiency will define itself. The technology that fails will be dust in the wind. I have nothing against hybrids, but the rave reviews I read about the TDI has my mouth watering. Only thing holding me back is the performance. Even with diesel being more expensive, it is a great alternative if we all can yield high 30's and low 40's. Imagine the possibilities!!
I would totally agree with the take both on the Ford and GM doing diesels. It is not like they are reinventing the wheel here. They already have them in the line up on a WW basis.
You would think with the so called globalization and outsourcing that we would have access to MORE products NOT LESS!!!!!!
It also should become more than apparent the 37% advantage diesel products have over gasser products. To me this is a metric hard to ignore. As a matter of fact it is not being ignored in Europe where at least 45% of the passenger vehicle fleet is diesel and the %'s are GROWING.
It is logically illogical to advocate burning more (gasser) to use "less" when you can burn less (diesel) and actually USE less!!??? If gassers could do this believe me I would use gassers!! ????
Herein lies the problem. EDUCATION. It will take a great deal of PR to gain momentum in the adoption of diesel. You have a few things going against it:
1- Only 25% of all gas stations carry diesel 2- Stigma attached to diesels- smell, smoke etc 3- Price of diesel is currently $0.30 - $0.50 greater than gas 4- Cold weather issues (people still think they're hard to start in winter) 5- Pumping diesel takes a little practice especially when it foams back at you. Happened to me a few time when renting a diesel truck. 6- Lack of skilled diesel mechanics at local repair facilities
I personally am not bothered by this, but you will see a great deal of resistance from American consumers. They're a whole other breed.
Your number one belies a very interesting hidden in plain sight secret. I am conflicted on whether or not to spill the beans.
If the passenger diesel fleet is 2.3-2.9%... well I have YET to find a place where I have to wait to (diesel) fuel.!!!????
Also truck stops have a much greater range of services!!! Some even have "crew rooms" where one can do route planning, internet access etc etc. A lot of places even have showers (most for a fee)
I will take issue with #3 on your list. I am beginning to find diesel that costs the same or a few pennies less than regular unleaded. In some places, you still get gouged for diesel fuel.
As the price for gasoline continues to climb, I am seeing diesel prices stay steady or fall a little.
I ran a diesel way back in the early 80's and never had a problem finding diesel fuel. I think a lot more than 25% of stations carry diesel.
I realize that for some people, the math may just work out, making it more ecconomical to buy the hybrid to save money in the long run. In my estimation, for a lot of people, that may take a lot of years to happen. I think Hollywood types are not buying the cars for the savings, but for the image it portrays. Afterall, why else would they give up their 50K SUVs or 100K or 200K sports cars for a hybrid? They definitely don't need the savings. It is the green image they are able to portray. Never mind the expense and polution they hide in their huge homes, but that is another story. Anyway, in my estimation, the gas savings alone don't seem to show a return on investment for 5-7 years, and maybe longer for a lot of people. This of course doesn't take into account the tax breaks from the government, and although I have read about them, I don't recall exactly how much they end up saving the average tax payer. Check out this chart to see where you might fit in.
Gas at $2/gal 25 mpg 30 mpg 45 mpg 50 mpg 55 mpg
12K/year $960 $800 $533 $480 $436
15K/year $1200 $1000 $667 $600 $545
20K/year $1600 $1333 $889 $800 $727
I would think that based on reports, the average Prius or Civic owner is getting around 45 mpg. For the benefit of the doubt, lets call it 50 mpg. The same vehicles would probably get around 30 mpg in the plain old gas version (yes, I know there isn't a gas Prius). If one drives 12k miles per year, the gas savings would be about $320 each year. For 15k miles, $400 per year. For 20k miles, $533 per year. I would think, based on leases, that average people drive around 12k or maybe 15k miles per year. At 15k miles per year, the savings is $400 per year. Based on the $2500 to $3000 premium people are paying for the hybrid, the savings may take 6-7 years to be seen. As I said, that doesn't account for tax breaks, insurance differences, or any other factors other than gas mileage. I think however, that many people who think this all out most likely realize that buying a hybrid just doesn't make ecconomic sense. Buy a hybrid if you want to save the environment, but don't bet on saving any money.
All the diesel fuel pricing charts you can shake a PM filter at....diesel is still higher than regular unleaded at virtually every location....
As far as the number of stations which carry diesel, I'm thinking it's fewer than 25% in the USA. I'm looking for the figure now...Will post it if I find it...
You put that silly chart out last week. You are assuming that I am saying that it is a prevailing thing. Not so. But I am seeing diesel cheaper than regular unleaded in some places.
If you look though, the gap is closing. Diesel is only a few cents more than gas and gasoline prices are rising more steeply and quickly than diesel prices. At the rate things are going, diesel will be cheaper than gasoline within the next week or two.
quote winter2-"You put that silly chart out last week. "-end quote
Nothing really too "silly" about the chart - it's merely facts from a website which tracks this sort of thing.
quote winter2-"At the rate things are going, diesel will be cheaper than gasoline within the next week or two."-end quote
Diesel has been traditionally cheaper then unleaded, until the last 18 months or so. Diesel might be cheaper than gas for a few days, but long term, I can find nothing which says it will stay that way.
Maybe the stricter requirements on sulfur levels has made diesel more expensive to refine. I found a web story this morning that said a school system was paying more for their fleet of buses when they bought low-sulfur diesel than when they bought regular diesel.
For the sake of this discussion board, I think at this time with the data we have from the last 18 months and nothing posted to challenge it, we have to assume that diesel will continue to be slightly more expensive than regular unleaded in the near future.
At least one economist thinks they will remain pretty much where they are for 2006:
Limited supplies and reduced refining capacity mean even a minor disruption in 2006 will again send prices soaring.
Conley said gasoline and diesel prices are following similar patterns. He expects unleaded gas prices to be around $2-$2.30 and diesel prices to be around $2.40-$2.60 in 2006.
The national average price of a gallon of diesel jumped 4.3 cents to $2.485 for the week ending Jan. 8, according to the Energy Information Administration.
But the short-term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows increases in all energy supplies in 2006, including crude oil, retail fuel and natural gas.
Tancred Midderdale, an economist with the Energy Information Administration, said crude oil production is turning around.
The price of unleaded gasoline is expected to peak this May at about $2.54 a gallon, Midderdale said, and diesel will peak in October at $2.60. The average U.S. price of unleaded regular in 2005 was $2.27, and diesel was $2.41.
“We certainly don’t see prices going back to below $2 anytime soon,” Midderdale said.
Maybe you would like us to assume that diesel will always be more expensive than gasoline, but since gassers are more than 95% of the petroleum consuming market, I doubt that. Remember too that gasoline will be going low sulfur nationwide so you will also be hit with that extra cost.
So for the sake of this discussion board, let us not make any assumptions of any kind. No one can predict the future.
These economist fellows are not amateurs. They don't put out public statements unless the data is there to indicate the trend.
I'd bet if you went to his office he could show you some many spreadsheets of data that your head would spin around.....I'm sure he takes into account factors which you and I have never considered.....;)
Diesel expected to continue its rise January 9, 2006
Diesel prices are set to rise 6% further this year beyond the $2.40/gallon average of 2005, suggest Energy Information Administration analysts. Reason: While demand is expected to keep increasing, there’s no expansion in refining facilities.
Increased demand for trucking services has, in turn, increased demand for diesel fuel. But there is also strong demand for diesel from mining, construction and farming, as well. Domestic refining capacity hasn’t fully recovered from the hurricanes that pushed annual price averages up 33% in 2005 to $2.70/gallon in the fourth quarter. Also, diesel distillate is harder to import than gasoline because of competing demand from European countries that favor diesel. In fact, European motor vehicle manufacturers are exacerbating the problem by designing much of their emission-reduction technology around diesel, rather than petroleum, engines. Economist Stephen Walters at J.P. Morgan Securities says the oil companies could improve the situation by building more refineries but that won’t happen right away.So, diesel fuel will remain higher than general gasoline prices, a historical pricing inversion that is forcing truckers to raise rates and fuel surcharges. Also, Environmental Protection Agency clean air guidelines that require diesel fuel to contain less sulfur take effect this year. That will make the fuel more expensive to refine and, thus, more costly at the pump.
Even really good economists have been known to be wrong and mistakes.
I was in the medical profession for many years and have watched what should have had outcome "A" become outcome "B" for no reason at all. The petroleum industry is just as fickle.
The price peak in October is typical. The demand for heating oil starts around that time. The statement does not say what is going to happen between May 2006 and October 2006. Again, you can read into it what you want, but for all I know gasoline prices could remain less than diesel, the same, or more. No one knows.
As far as the number of stations which carry diesel, I'm thinking it's fewer than 25% in the USA. I'm looking for the figure now...Will post it if I find it...
I'll bet the folks trying to buy gas to get out of the path of Katrina and Rita were wishing they had a diesel. There were no accounts of diesel shortages or long lines...
Let's ask this brilliant economist for stock picks, then.
Historically, diesel prices have been lower than unleaded based on a yearly average. A little higher in winter, a little lower in summer, but slightly lower overall.
Last year due to Katrina, a lot of diesel refineries switched to gasolein refining, as you all know. We still haven't obtained steady state yet.
Larsb, what's your point. Are you trying to prove that diesel is going to cost more than gasolein so people shouldn't buy diesel cars?
When my wife and I drove back form FL to MD on Labor Day 2005, Gas stations that sold both diesel and gas had restrictions on the amount of gas you could buy, $20.00 at $3.359/gallon or about 5.9 gallons. Diesel was 2.899 at the time and no limitation. If we get with really bad weather again, I expect the same thing to happen with prices.
I used gasbuddy to look at fuel costs. In Illinois the lowest price for diesel is 2.41 and the lowest price for reg unleaded is 2.13. Not a huge difference, but not 4 cents.
quote-Larsb, what's your point. Are you trying to prove that diesel is going to cost more than gasolein so people shouldn't buy diesel cars??-end quote
Point #1: Diesel prices, although HISTORICALLY LOWER than regular unleaded, have not been so for a while, and look to be higher at least for 2006.
Point #2: If someone is debating whether to buy a diesel or hybrid car THIS YEAR, and they are basing at least part of their decision on fuel costs, then they might want this information.
That says nothing about the future of fuel prices past 2006.
I have never taken much "stock" in anything they say.
As to your question, there are some people who would like to see diesel disappear. I am not saying that he is one of them, but sometimes he does sound like one.
The issue is that because gassers are so clean diesels should be too and I agree. But the problem is that EPA rules have been very focused on gassers because there are so many of them. Now those same people have forgotten that emissions control did not happen overnight on gassers and emissions control adds several thousands of dollars to the cost of a car. Now that EPA rules will be a bit more focused on diesel, it is time for them (diesel) to step up to the plate and clean up their act. I drive a diesel and would like it to be cleaner too, but not until ULSD arrives. So I and other diesel people are handicapped by crappy high sulfur, low cetane fuel. I would like to see 51+ cetane diesel widely available in the U.S. Be amazing how much quieter and cleaner diesels would be.
quote winter2-"When my wife and I drove back form FL to MD on Labor Day 2005, Gas stations that sold both diesel and gas had restrictions on the amount of gas you could buy, $20.00 at $3.359/gallon or about 5.9 gallons."-end quote
Your example is flawed..... :shades:
You just so happened to pinpoint the exact time in the past 6 months when gas prices in Orlando, due to natural disaster, spiked the highest.
Go to www.orlandogasprices.com and look at the 6 month chart. Highest point of USA Average, Maryland Average, and Orlando Average is that weekend.
That explains everything...........dang, I oughta be a web detective....
Comments
I agree, “pushing” was a bad choice.
Diesel gets much more complex when you start trying to clean the emissions using PM filters, catalysts, etc.
The fact remains that any modern car which attempts to have both high MPG and clean emissions will be required to have a lot of complexity.
Cars are not getting less complex, but are moving toward much MORE complexity in the future. Local mechanics are going to have to pay for the training or be left behind.
http://www.asashop.org/autoinc/june2005/mech.cfm
Today's auto shop owners may heed the advice of the experts and learn maintenance on cars of the future. "Hybrids are going to be a source of business," Bright says, "and they are a source of income."
You cannot be reading the same threads that I have. Hardly a week goes by without a complaint about the CVT in the HCH. As these hybrids get a few miles on them the complexity will become an issue. I am not saying that all cars are not complex. Most have way more crap than is needed for basic transportation. I wonder if given the choice and asked to pay the premium how many would opt for all the airbags, crumple zones, skid control, ABS etc, etc?
If you think that Toyota or any other automaker, is going to publish the failure rate of any of their vehicles you are mistaken. If I could read Japanese I would check out their auto blog sites to find what is failing and what is not.
The dealers will have to pay for training. And as many Prius owners can attest. The good ones are few and far between. I doubt in a city the size of yours that any independent will work on any problem you may have with your HCH. Changing oil and spark plugs has not changed a lot. diagnosing why a CVT is jerking seems to have stumped even the Honda engineers.
You know all generalizations are wrong including this one and especially yours above.
My Prius vs a similarly equipped 4c Camry has a $2600 differential. Is this a greater differential than a diesel vs a gasser, hypothetically yes, if one were available. But there are none in the low $20K range in a midsize vehicle.
That $2600 premium OTOH is recoverable in 3 yrs for me and after that it's a 'money-maker'. This is with 90% of my driving at rural highway speeds of 62-63 mph. With more city driving the recovery period would be shorter yet. Careful about generalizations.
A transmission problem is not a hybrid problem, unless every single hybrid uses the same transmission, which you know they dont.
I've got a manual tranny HCH so this is not an issue for me personally, but I am in the minority of owners, and the manual tranny HCH was killed after the 2005 model year.
One can hope that the CVT in the 2006 HCH is a better product than the old one.
Illogical. Not constructive.
I was not specifically comparing your 4 cylinder Camry vs the Prius. However the methodology I have used is infinitely adaptable. So I think to remain on topic, one should be careful about why one thinks certain generalizations might be meaningless. So if you really want to talk turkey to drop some of the emotion then do it in cents per mile driven. I think this is why some rabid pro hybrids advocates have assiduously avoided talking in these specific terms. This was one reason why I elimated the Prius and the Camry for MY specific purposes, purposes I have always delineated when making comparisons on this thread topic. Is it the only way? NO!!! Do I like the Prius and the Camry? YES! But I think the issues I bring up are probably more applicable.
Maybe this would be a good first USA diesel/hybrid. ( Dream on, I know. )
Actually some of the verbiage of the linked article covers some of the issues raised on this cite during the discussion/debate and at times "food" fight (in the Belusi's animal house vein).
The 4 L per 100 km conversion if my tables are correct is 58.8 mpg !!! (USA gal,128 oz) Now that rates a WOO HOO from me! 206 # ft of torque is pretty good for a 1.7 L turbo diesel! Again if the weight is 3,000 #s and UNDER, another WOO HOO! So by process of elimintion I'd say the extra 25% (structural) over my 1.9 turbo diesel is due to the 2 mode hybrid portion, i.e., even diesel's would benefit from an mpg point of view, by being 20 or so % of the time in the OFF mode!!?? My EPA range is 42/49. So if I am getting a range of 44-62 mph, I am guessing a similar % range is possible with this GM model.
I would also expect BETTER higher speed touring over a similar gasser/2 mode hybrid.
The however is the reliability of now the dual mode hybrid. !!??
you don't even have to use 5th grade math to know that you will not break even. I then showed an example of why it was not correct.
Your generalization is wrong. If you stated " in some cases..." or " for certain drivers..." then I agree. But your blanket statement is not true.
For some there is an economic benefit. That's a fact.
Given my stated assumptions, show me where it is incorrect?
You are correct there. I took a quick glance at the Civic problems thread. Honda has had an ongoing problem with the CVT since at least 1999. It was only used in the cheapest Civic HX and the Hybrid. Hmmm, I thought the HCH was supposed to be right up there with the Civic EX. Now the only car with the CVT is the HCH. You may be one of the lucky ones to get a MT HCH. I would hang on to it. Until a great diesel hybrid hits the market.
---> And when will that be? Should I hang on to my Grand Prix for another year? Waiting with bated breath.
“Does Ford have any intention of bringing a diesel passenger car to the US market in the 2007 or 2008 model years? “
They seemed very interested in what I had to say concerning mileage and economy. I brought to their attention Jeep and VW diesels are on my list for a new car.
Write the auto maker of your choice a letter letting them know you want to see a high mileage diesel in their product line up.
You would think with the so called globalization and outsourcing that we would have access to MORE products NOT LESS!!!!!!
It also should become more than apparent the 37% advantage diesel products have over gasser products. To me this is a metric hard to ignore. As a matter of fact it is not being ignored in Europe where at least 45% of the passenger vehicle fleet is diesel and the %'s are GROWING.
It is logically illogical to advocate burning more (gasser) to use "less" when you can burn less (diesel) and actually USE less!!??? If gassers could do this believe me I would use gassers!! ????
1- Only 25% of all gas stations carry diesel
2- Stigma attached to diesels- smell, smoke etc
3- Price of diesel is currently $0.30 - $0.50 greater than gas
4- Cold weather issues (people still think they're hard to start in winter)
5- Pumping diesel takes a little practice especially when it foams back at you. Happened to me a few time when renting a diesel truck.
6- Lack of skilled diesel mechanics at local repair facilities
I personally am not bothered by this, but you will see a great deal of resistance from American consumers. They're a whole other breed.
If the passenger diesel fleet is 2.3-2.9%... well I have YET to find a place where I have to wait to (diesel) fuel.!!!????
Also truck stops have a much greater range of services!!! Some even have "crew rooms" where one can do route planning, internet access etc etc. A lot of places even have showers (most for a fee)
As the price for gasoline continues to climb, I am seeing diesel prices stay steady or fall a little.
I ran a diesel way back in the early 80's and never had a problem finding diesel fuel. I think a lot more than 25% of stations carry diesel.
I think Hollywood types are not buying the cars for the savings, but for the image it portrays. Afterall, why else would they give up their 50K SUVs or 100K or 200K sports cars for a hybrid? They definitely don't need the savings. It is the green image they are able to portray. Never mind the expense and polution they hide in their huge homes, but that is another story.
Anyway, in my estimation, the gas savings alone don't seem to show a return on investment for 5-7 years, and maybe longer for a lot of people. This of course doesn't take into account the tax breaks from the government, and although I have read about them, I don't recall exactly how much they end up saving the average tax payer. Check out this chart to see where you might fit in.
Gas at $2/gal
25 mpg
30 mpg
45 mpg
50 mpg
55 mpg
12K/year
$960
$800
$533
$480
$436
15K/year
$1200
$1000
$667
$600
$545
20K/year
$1600
$1333
$889
$800
$727
I would think that based on reports, the average Prius or Civic owner is getting around 45 mpg. For the benefit of the doubt, lets call it 50 mpg. The same vehicles would probably get around 30 mpg in the plain old gas version (yes, I know there isn't a gas Prius).
If one drives 12k miles per year, the gas savings would be about $320 each year. For 15k miles, $400 per year. For 20k miles, $533 per year. I would think, based on leases, that average people drive around 12k or maybe 15k miles per year.
At 15k miles per year, the savings is $400 per year. Based on the $2500 to $3000 premium people are paying for the hybrid, the savings may take 6-7 years to be seen.
As I said, that doesn't account for tax breaks, insurance differences, or any other factors other than gas mileage. I think however, that many people who think this all out most likely realize that buying a hybrid just doesn't make ecconomic sense.
Buy a hybrid if you want to save the environment, but don't bet on saving any money.
All the diesel fuel pricing charts you can shake a PM filter at....diesel is still higher than regular unleaded at virtually every location....
As far as the number of stations which carry diesel, I'm thinking it's fewer than 25% in the USA. I'm looking for the figure now...Will post it if I find it...
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
If you look though, the gap is closing. Diesel is only a few cents more than gas and gasoline prices are rising more steeply and quickly than diesel prices. At the rate things are going, diesel will be cheaper than gasoline within the next week or two.
Nothing really too "silly" about the chart - it's merely facts from a website which tracks this sort of thing.
quote winter2-"At the rate things are going, diesel will be cheaper than gasoline within the next week or two."-end quote
Diesel has been traditionally cheaper then unleaded, until the last 18 months or so. Diesel might be cheaper than gas for a few days, but long term, I can find nothing which says it will stay that way.
Maybe the stricter requirements on sulfur levels has made diesel more expensive to refine. I found a web story this morning that said a school system was paying more for their fleet of buses when they bought low-sulfur diesel than when they bought regular diesel.
For the sake of this discussion board, I think at this time with the data we have from the last 18 months and nothing posted to challenge it, we have to assume that diesel will continue to be slightly more expensive than regular unleaded in the near future.
At least one economist thinks they will remain pretty much where they are for 2006:
http://nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2006/01/11/43c530f910a30
Limited supplies and reduced refining capacity mean even a minor disruption in 2006 will again send prices soaring.
Conley said gasoline and diesel prices are following similar patterns. He expects unleaded gas prices to be around $2-$2.30 and diesel prices to be around $2.40-$2.60 in 2006.
Jan 10, 2006 1:50 PM
The national average price of a gallon of diesel jumped 4.3 cents to $2.485 for the week ending Jan. 8, according to the Energy Information Administration.
http://www.fleetowner.com/diesel.xls
Tancred Midderdale, an economist with the Energy Information Administration, said crude oil production is turning around.
The price of unleaded gasoline is expected to peak this May at about $2.54 a gallon, Midderdale said, and diesel will peak in October at $2.60. The average U.S. price of unleaded regular in 2005 was $2.27, and diesel was $2.41.
“We certainly don’t see prices going back to below $2 anytime soon,” Midderdale said.
http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2006/01/14/business/doc43c833d9b6bbd01987109- 0.txt
So for the sake of this discussion board, let us not make any assumptions of any kind. No one can predict the future.
I'd bet if you went to his office he could show you some many spreadsheets of data that your head would spin around.....I'm sure he takes into account factors which you and I have never considered.....;)
January 9, 2006
Diesel prices are set to rise 6% further this year beyond the $2.40/gallon average of 2005, suggest Energy Information Administration analysts. Reason: While demand is expected to keep increasing, there’s no expansion in refining facilities.
Increased demand for trucking services has, in turn, increased demand for diesel fuel. But there is also strong demand for diesel from mining, construction and farming, as well. Domestic refining capacity hasn’t fully recovered from the hurricanes that pushed annual price averages up 33% in 2005 to $2.70/gallon in the fourth quarter. Also, diesel distillate is harder to import than gasoline because of competing demand from European countries that favor diesel. In fact, European motor vehicle manufacturers are exacerbating the problem by designing much of their emission-reduction technology around diesel, rather than petroleum, engines. Economist Stephen Walters at J.P. Morgan Securities says the oil companies could improve the situation by building more refineries but that won’t happen right away.So, diesel fuel will remain higher than general gasoline prices, a historical pricing inversion that is forcing truckers to raise rates and fuel surcharges. Also, Environmental Protection Agency clean air guidelines that require diesel fuel to contain less sulfur take effect this year. That will make the fuel more expensive to refine and, thus, more costly at the pump.
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6298025.html
I was in the medical profession for many years and have watched what should have had outcome "A" become outcome "B" for no reason at all. The petroleum industry is just as fickle.
The price peak in October is typical. The demand for heating oil starts around that time. The statement does not say what is going to happen between May 2006 and October 2006. Again, you can read into it what you want, but for all I know gasoline prices could remain less than diesel, the same, or more. No one knows.
But an educated guess is better than 100% conjecture. :shades:
BTW, how do you educate a guess?
I'll bet the folks trying to buy gas to get out of the path of Katrina and Rita were wishing they had a diesel. There were no accounts of diesel shortages or long lines...
Wow! I'm getting a bargain in IN. AAA states national avg. for reg. gasoline at $2.32.
Las Vegas to Chicago in a E320 and Liberty CRD (Daimler propaganda)
Sprinter Diesel Hybrid
Historically, diesel prices have been lower than unleaded based on a yearly average. A little higher in winter, a little lower in summer, but slightly lower overall.
Last year due to Katrina, a lot of diesel refineries switched to gasolein refining, as you all know.
We still haven't obtained steady state yet.
Larsb, what's your point. Are you trying to prove that diesel is going to cost more than gasolein so people shouldn't buy diesel cars?
Point #1: Diesel prices, although HISTORICALLY LOWER than regular unleaded, have not been so for a while, and look to be higher at least for 2006.
Point #2: If someone is debating whether to buy a diesel or hybrid car THIS YEAR, and they are basing at least part of their decision on fuel costs, then they might want this information.
That says nothing about the future of fuel prices past 2006.
As to your question, there are some people who would like to see diesel disappear. I am not saying that he is one of them, but sometimes he does sound like one.
The issue is that because gassers are so clean diesels should be too and I agree. But the problem is that EPA rules have been very focused on gassers because there are so many of them. Now those same people have forgotten that emissions control did not happen overnight on gassers and emissions control adds several thousands of dollars to the cost of a car. Now that EPA rules will be a bit more focused on diesel, it is time for them (diesel) to step up to the plate and clean up their act. I drive a diesel and would like it to be cleaner too, but not until ULSD arrives. So I and other diesel people are handicapped by crappy high sulfur, low cetane fuel. I would like to see 51+ cetane diesel widely available in the U.S. Be amazing how much quieter and cleaner diesels would be.
http://www.illinoisgasprices.com/index.aspx?fuel=D
Before you post something is poor information, please check your facts.
Your example is flawed..... :shades:
You just so happened to pinpoint the exact time in the past 6 months when gas prices in Orlando, due to natural disaster, spiked the highest.
Go to www.orlandogasprices.com and look at the 6 month chart. Highest point of USA Average, Maryland Average, and Orlando Average is that weekend.
That explains everything...........dang, I oughta be a web detective....