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Also if your Tesla grounds to a halt, where are you going to take it for repair? That's right---Only Game in Town.
And who fixes a 5 year old flat screen TV anymore? Nobody.
My belief is that "old tech" depreciates heavily.
As for stock prices, well, $170 is insane. It should be about $17, same as Ford.
1. Price
2. Batteries
3. Charging time
I would expect they are all related, ultimately, to a break-through in #2.
I feel that a major battery break-through will come, but have no idea if it might be 3 years or 10 years. Once that occurs, EVs can I believe, compete effectively with plug-in hybrids.
However, the plug-ins, the greatest market foe to EVs, may also improve substantially during that time. If you could market a plug-in with an effective range of 700 miles on one charge/one tank, that's going to be pretty difficult to beat.
If I were Tesla, I'd market a compact electric 1/2 ton pickup truck as my next model.
It makes little sense to buy an $80,000 car to run short-mile errands and recharging your car each and every day is going to get old fast.
Unless of course you had some sort of charging grid you could drive onto every night--that would be nice. But again, that's in the future.
Well that's presumptuous. Wouldn't it behoof Americans to be happy if Tesla were to succeed with their goals? By default they already have investment in the company, why would they wish anything bad to happen to their money?
There's a difference between being able to recognize realities, and wishing unpleasant financial outcomes for a company.
I wish them well..but I agree with the compact p/u idea. That is something they should pursue for sure. For one thing, even if it too will be expensive and have range restrictions, at least there is a real mkt for a pick up truck in NA whose eventual income would help support more of their exotic tendencies instead of it all being financed on the backs of Americans.
Of course, it could also be argued that tightening environmental requirements is the primary factor for pouring more resources in EVs. Whatever, but based on GM's recent press releases, competition from Tesla is spurring GM and others to accelerate their EV plans.
If you mean the "expensive toy" game, ala Ferrari, I would agree with you.
If you mean mass-produced affordable transportation, I don't think Tesla matters at all in that game, at least not at the moment. That would even be a mistake for Tesla, to attempt such a thing at this point in its short and unpredictable life.
I think that GM's game plan, and that of the major German manufacturers, is to outflank Tesla by offering a much broader range of EVs and plug-in hybrids, at lower prices. Porsche and MB will also offer models that are higher priced than the Tesla S, thereby siphoning off some high end sales. However, if there should be a significant breakthrough in batteries, making them cheaper, lighter and more compact, there'll be plenty of demand for all to thrive for several years.
One thing I don't understand is how Tesla can afford to build a network of charging stations in North America and Europe for the relatively small number of cars that it sells. It just doesn't make sense, given that I've read that these stations won't be able to service the Leaf and other EVs, or plug-in hybrids, because their batteries are different from the Model S's. Maybe someone can explain this to me and others who are puzzled.
One, reality, going forward, won't live up to expectations, and the stock will decline, maybe significantly.
Two, the stock price will remain in this general range, because the company does well or very well, but not fabulously. Under this scenario Tesla's earnings will grow steadily until the 166 valuation is justified.
Three, the company executes brilliantly, meeting or even exceeding the most optimistic expectations, Elon Musk reveals himself to be some combination of Steve Jobs, Henry Ford and Thomas Edison, and the stock continues to make new highs.
You and I believe that outcome number one is the most likely one, but, hey, we've been wrong up to now. I bought some shares a while back, took a quick profit because I got cold feet, and have watched it climb. Of course I wish I had bought more and kept it, but I still don't think the future justifies a valuation of 166.
I think we'll know the answer by the end of Q1 2014.
Feds To Auction Green Technology Loan Made To Fisker Automotive
"All Fisker bids must include "a commitment and business plan that promotes domestic manufacturing capabilities and related engineering for advanced technology vehicles here in the U.S.," the DOE said.
There have been several suitors for the maker of the Fisker Karma, a plug-in hybrid, according to media reports. The company has not produced a car in over a year. "
Funny thing about the mention of grocery shopping in another thread - I see tons of Teslas in my area, as the trendy middle aged overpaid techie suit loves the thing - but I've yet to see one at a grocery store.
I really am curious to see what would happen if the tax break was to expire, which it needs to, today.
It's interesting how flamboyant wheeler-dealer high tech gurus are "saving the world" or are "visionaries" whereas if they were doing the exact same thing in lumber or bonds or Hollywood, they become "arrogant, predatory egomaniacs".
I agree completely but some people's realities may be clouded by their limited or parochial experiences. Nonetheless, this past week Tesla recovered all of its temporary losses and closed at $183. This brings the company's market cap to over $22 billion, more than Ford or GM. Sounds like another American success story to me.
Last week, I caught the tail end of a radio broadcast and they were discussing green cars. They praised the Volt and other electric plugins and wondered why Americans were so slow to adopt EVs. They said that once one drives an EV for an extended period of time they would perhaps never return to an internal combustion engine, which is so yesterday. Were they Tesla acolytes or were they drunk with irrational exuberance?
I'm not in the market for a car right now but my next purchase will certainly be an electric vehicle.
See related NY Times story http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/business/santa-monica-bets-on-electric-cars-bu- - t-consumers-are-slow-to-switch.html?ref=automobiles
Not that I plan to have any grass to mow or trimming to do in my next house anyway. :-)
My problem is that our cars will stay parked for days or weeks at a time while we run errands on foot or bike. Then we'll hop in and do a 2 hour round trip for shopping or a road trip. I need about a 500 mile range for the occasional days I drive from 7 to 6, with a couple of hours off for breaks.
Renting for the road would work, but that's not an option in my present locale.
More like a Wall St. success story. Tesla car production is still a drop in the bucket. Ford probably makes more cars in a day than Tesla does all year.
Wishing for realistic views of Tesla isn't wishing it for fail. The quicker bubbles are evened out, better off for the entire economy.
My only point is that there is not one competent financial advisor alive right now, nor one rating stock advisory service, that would tell you to buy Tesla stock as a sound investment. All ratings are negative except (wait for it)...public awareness.
Tesla Patents Next-Gen Electric Car Battery that Gets 400 Miles on a Single Charge (inhabitat.com)
If the latter two vehicles offer better or even comparable performance in their respective categories, as the S does, they sell in decent numbers, and the company is profitable, Tesla will have done what no other car company has done for several decades. Plus, Tesla will have accomplished this with new technology and new applications of an old technology. Since these "ifs" won't be answered before 2017, the jury is still out on the company.
As for the stock, I continue to feel that current valuations are too rich. Time will tell on this one, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
I agree with those who believe that EVs should not be subsidized by tax payers. Elon Musk owns 23% of Tesla Motors. How can you justify giving a tax break to a multi billionaire when our country runs up huge deficits and our economy struggles? I believe government should subsidize basic research, but subsidies to private companies is difficult to justify because it too often gets misspent, misallocated or misapplied.
Corporations are people too, remember? :shades:
I bet they wind up making more money on licensing patents than selling cars.
I'm not seeing how you can comfortably say that. The Tesla competes as a CAR, but not as a business. It is a totally propped up business, based on subsidies and stock speculation. How does a Tesla compete with BMW, who makes 90 TIMES as many cars?
It's certainly not a level playing field at this point.
There are battery options available if your "rope-management" skills aren't all that great.
The favorite argument is that the Tesla is like the first cars---very expensive--and that as production ramps up, we'll get the Model T version.
However, I see a flaw there, in that due to battery costs, the Tesla model may not scale up very well at all.
Cars got cheap in 1910 when fuel got cheap. Neither batteries nor electricity are cheap in 2013.
And if it is real competition, it's way past time to stop giving the top income echelons a publicly funded subsidy for a toy.
My guess would be partly from other companies that are stressing "green" in a big way, or conspicuous consumption as well. I don't think it's Benz or BMW or Audi or Porsche. The German car driver just rolls up his windows and steps on the gas.
Maybe Lexus, Cadillac, Volvo, Aston Martin, Ferrari???
I'm just guessin'. I really haven't a clue.
Also, it's probably not a zero sum game. Some Tesla sales are probably incremental, since some buyers who can spend $70,000-$110,000 can afford to have an extra car. In addition, some sales may be pulled forward by impulse purchases. Notwithstanding these factors, the majority of Tesla's sales are probably conquest sales. Just my perception, since, to Shifty's point, I haven't seen any relevant numbers.
We'll have a clearer picture of relative winners and losers during the next sales downturn. By then Tesla will be in one or two additional segments and there will be more competing models.
Seattle is the 3rd biggest market for EVs after San Fran and LA, followed by NY and Atlanta.
Geez, I would never have guessed it that high, unless of course the vast majority of that 65% live in a large metro area.
The city ranking is for plug-in EVs (the whole article was focused on plug-in EVs, not hybrids).
Probably the high tech companies should provide the charging stations at destination.
RE: Saving time by not going to a gas station. Oh yeah, that 15 minutes a week I spend there is certainly worth spending $80,000 to avoid.
According to the complaint, the driver was going down a short driveway at about 5 mph with the brake consistently applied. The car suddenly accelerated, hitting a curb and ending up on a 4.5-foot retaining wall about a foot from the curb.
So far this is just a complaint, so there's no basis for assigning blame. We'll see where it goes from here.
http://imimpulsive.blogspot.com/2010/01/stuck-throttle-accelerator-that-almost.h- - tml
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chrysler-Dodge-RAM-Stuck-Accelerator/272143467225-
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/hertz-adds-tesla-electric-cars-at-two-c- - - alifornia-airports.html
Hopefully this concept remains in Cali where Tesla's largest market is...