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Has the 2017 Chevy Volt Just Rendered the Tesla Model 3 Obsolete?

Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
edited June 2016 in Chevrolet
....or any other EV for that matter?

Let's look at the numbers together, and see if this premise holds water!


RANGE:

"Using data obtained from the Department of Transport’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), Garrett Fitzgerald and Rob van Haaren analyzed the travel data of survey participants, concluding that 95 percent of the 748,918 recorded single-trip journeys by car were under 30 miles." source: Green Car Reports


The Volt's range is 50 miles (tested in "real world" conditions). Therefore, it is possible that most people could run the Volt with gasoline for weeks at a time, thus rendering an EV's range of 100-200 miles a luxury that nobody needs.

MAINTENANCE:

Current estimate from Tesla state that yearly maintenance on a Tesla (while in warranty) would be about $600 a year.

Volt maintenance includes tire rotation at 7,500 miles, oil at 24 months, cabin air filter at 36 months, evap check and air filter at 75,000 miles.

PERFORMANCE:

Don't have performance specs on the Model 3, but the Volt is pretty peppy in EV mode, under 8 seconds 0-60, similar with gas engine.

ECONOMY

Most EVs cost you about 3 to 4 KwH per 100 miles.

MPG: Volt's gas engine delivers 42 mpg.

PURCHASE PRICE: About the same after tax credits, etc.


SERVICING:
Any Chevy dealer or independent service station vs. Tesla Service Center


CHARGING RATES:
Both vehicles charge about the same rate on home charger. Volt does not have a "supercharger" option, as GM thought this irrelevant for the Volt.

CARGO CAPACITY:
Don't have dimensions on the Model 3 but the VOLT is not as spacious as a Crossover might be.


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SUMMARY: Why would someone choose a Model 3 over a VOLT?
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Comments

  • KeerockKeerock Member Posts: 25
    I like your thinking for all categories except one. You really don't want to venture down the performance comparison. Volt will literally get left in the dust.

    Model 3 base will be 0 - 60 in under 6 seconds... I'm going to bet options will allow it to accelerate like the Model S (neck snapping speed)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Good point but the Volt is apparently no slouch. So if the Model 3, say, does 0-60 in 5.8 and the Volt does it in 7.5, is that really big enough of a deal to choose one over the other?

    If the VOLT were painfully slow in either EV or gas mode, I'd be more in your camp on this, but it actually isn't that slow, and, so I'm told (still waiting for my road test), much more fun to drive than say a Prius.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Looks like Volt has had a resurgence in sales this year. Through May it is up 79%. You have to also ask yourself how many of those 400K prospective T3 buyers will back out without the free super chargers? I think a plugin Hybrid makes more sense. VW has several ready for primetime to keep up with GM and Toyota.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Volt may be stealing some of the Prius sales. Toyota only sold 4 Prius PHV in May. What's up with that?


  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    I don't think they have the new model PHV out yet.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    lol, that could account for the lack of sales.

    Volts are pretty hard to find right now too though.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited June 2016
    VOLT has the Prius beat in a very important category---the EV range. Prius is going to be only 22 miles, so if we go by that study I posted you won't be able to do a normal day's driving strictly on electricity with the Prius.

    I checked on the 0-60 times, and Chevy says "under 7 seconds".
  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742
    Consumers could use a reference chart displaying the average residuals on hybrids and EV's based on age and mileage. That would give them a quick idea on just what a six year old EV is worth when compared to its original cost.

    Would you buy a six year old Tesla at 50% of its original sticker price? How about if it was 20%?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Old tech is always a hard sell.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Six years - the indys may still be a couple of years away from doing battery rebuilds on these.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    Here's a blurb that's even more exciting. ;)

    "A hybrid model, a first among minivans, will arrive this fall and should go about 80 miles on a gallon of gas, Chrysler said."

    Chrysler Hopes New Pacifica Can Make Minivan Cool (NY Times)
  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742
    edited June 2016
    stever said:

    Six years - the indys may still be a couple of years away from doing battery rebuilds on these.

    Why should they get into rebuilding them at all?

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Cheaper than a new one, if Prius owner's experience is any guide.
  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742
    That doesn't answer WHY they should.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    Sorry, Doc, don't get what you are driving at. I'm tooling around in a 6 year old car - if it dies, I should take it to the junk yard? (okay, it's 7 now)

    A six year old Tesla has to be in a lot bigger demand than my Grand Caravan.

    Let's see, a base 2012 Model S (the intro year) had a base MSRP of $57,400. Let's mile one up like my Caravan to the tune of 23,000 miles a year - so, 92,000 miles.

    Dealer retail on a blue one, no options, is $36,000.

    Seems worth fixing just based on that depreciation, even if you had to pay $10k for a replacement traction battery.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited June 2016
    I think what he means (if I may be so bold as to speak for him) is--what is the market motivation for rebuilding them? Since there's no glam in old tech anyway, and the new 2022 models will rung rings around his obsolete Tesla, which probably has other mechanical and cosmetic issues by that time anyway, the owner might be very content to just junk it.

    One might be lured into thinking "well you can get a Prius battery rebuilt for $2100 (plus install)".

    However, did you look at the rebuilt's warranty? 24 months.

    You really gonna spend perhaps $1300 a year for batteries?

    As for Teslas, I don't think anyone is selling rebuilds right now, as their battery design is quite different than the other EVs. I think the out of warranty replacement cost of the 85 KwH battery pack is $12,000 if you pay in advance to get that price, but, like a lot of things Tesla, it's all rather murky at the moment. Some say $15000. These are predicted costs for future batteries by the way. No one will really tell you what it costs.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    I think a lot of people see value in old cars beyond junking them. Blow an engine and if you can get a crate installed for $2100, that's still cheaper over two years compared to $199 lease payments.

    The numbers would be much more with a Tesla, but a crate engine isn't going to get you zero to sixty under 4 seconds, if you have the performance mode one (a measly 5.9 otherwise).

    Back in the day, the naysayers were claiming $8,000 for a Prius traction battery replacement. In the real world, dealers were doing them for $4,000 and you see the indy's doing them for your $2,100. Add the uniqueness and cache to the equation and I bet a dead Model S would still sell for relatively big bucks.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited June 2016
    It's not a question of whether someone will do it, it's a question of whether enough people would want rebuilt batteries so that industries would gear up to provide them at a competitive price.

    I think an 8 year old Tesla with a "bricked" battery is going to depreciate exactly like a brick, dropped off a bridge. And new batteries are not going to cost the same as a Chevy crate engine because of economies of scale. More like a Porsche engine.

    How many people do you think put $20,000 engines in their 8 year old Porsche Cayenne? Not too many I'd bet.

    And keep in mind that that $2100 for rebuilt Prius battery is the cost without installation, and with only a 24 month warranty.

  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742

    It's not a question of whether someone will do it, it's a question of whether enough people would want rebuilt batteries so that industries would gear up to provide them at a competitive price.

    On top of all of the other reasons to not do it, the idea that it has to be competitive instead of profitable says all that needs to be said.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Wait for it.

    Should find out in just a couple of years. :)

    This shop in Houston will install a new or rebuilt battery at your house for $1,000 to $2,200 bucks. He does Toyotas and Altimas.
  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742
    stever said:

    This shop in Houston will install a new or rebuilt battery at your house for $1,000 to $2,200 bucks. He does Toyotas and Altimas.

    "Hometown Hybrids will retain your old battery core. If you wish to keep your core or your core has excessive miles an additional core charge will be applied"

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    Wait for it.

    Should find out in just a couple of years. :)

    This shop in Houston will install a new or rebuilt battery at your house for $1,000 to $2,200 bucks. He does Toyotas and Altimas.

    My experience with batteries is they last just past the warranty date. So with the above figure about $100-$150 per month and a trip to have your rebuilt battery replaced every year.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited June 2016
    Besides all that, Tesla batteries aren't like Toyota and Nissan batteries.

    As Car and Driver recently pointed out, once the mainline automakers jump fully into the EV market, Tesla cars will fade away and Tesla will become an energy producer, like Exxon.

    Mainstream EVs will undoubtedly have long warranties on their batteries, rendering rebuilding batteries almost irrevelant for most owners. How many people buy batteries for their ten-year-old laptops?

    Of course, all this presupposes that EVs will even matter ten years from now. They may never breech the 3%-5% market share.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016

    stever said:

    This shop in Houston will install a new or rebuilt battery at your house for $1,000 to $2,200 bucks. He does Toyotas and Altimas.

    "Hometown Hybrids will retain your old battery core. If you wish to keep your core or your core has excessive miles an additional core charge will be applied"

    Don't know about the excessive miles bit, but core charges are pretty common on lots of parts.

    Tesla is going to be cranking out a lot of Panasonic batteries in the near future, assuming they don't pull a Solyndra. Someone will be refurbing them.

    I keep waiting to have to take my Panasonic drill batteries to Batteries Plus for a rebuild, but the NiMH batteries are still going strong. I got that drill on November 13, 2000 from Amazon.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yeah but now those drills run on 18V, have way more power, more endurance, are lighter, and even light up your work, and probably cost almost the same the batteries you plan to buy. One test run in a new Makita drill and I heaved my old drill so far it might be in orbit.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    I wouldn't buy another drill unless it was a Panasonic - they're bombproof.

    After 16 years, I still don't need new batteries. And who knows, those Teslas may not either. I bet there's plenty of first generation Prii out there on their original batteries. But if they do die, you can repair 'em for not an unreasonable amount of money. And I bet the Tesla batteries will be the same way.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    If there's little demand the price will be very expensive. Do people put new engines in their 2006 Mercedes S Class? I doubt it.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    If they throw a rod, someone will stick a rebuilt in there. Ditto transmissions. Too much car just to tow to the crusher.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Couldn't agree less on that example. The engine would be worth 2X the value of the entire car, running.

    3 year old Teslas are already at 50% of MSRP. In ten years?

    You can buy a good running 2003 Prius for $3500. Would you really put $2500 worth of batteries in a car that's rolled 150K? How many owners would? Would that be enough to warrant gearing up a factory to rebuild their batteries?

    You see where I'm going with this.



  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    A new Tesla battery is $30,000. Makes the Prius battery look like a bargain. 
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    So already a 2013 Tesla with 31K miles is selling in the $50K range. If the battery price doesn't come down, these cars are doomed. Maybe Tesla will buy back the cars and recondition them--but that would be stupid unless they plan to no longer sell in the luxury large car market.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    >Couldn't agree less on that example. The engine would be worth 2X the value of the entire car, running.

    Not even to someone like @fintail? :)

    >A new Tesla battery is $30,000.

    And I was buying $2,000 desktop PCs in 1990. And they were outmoded in a year.

    There is an obscure car data company out of Santa Monica that supports this commentator's similar opinion that the only thing that's going to save Musk and the EV is a huge surge in gas prices.

    Can Tesla's Name Overcome Electric Vehicles' Inability To Compete With Cheap Gasoline? (seekingalpha.com)

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I keep waiting to have to take my Panasonic drill batteries to Batteries Plus for a rebuild, but the NiMH batteries are still going strong. I got that drill on November 13, 2000 from Amazon.

    I have 6 Makita drills with 7.2V and 9.6V Nicad batteries. They were all bought in the 1980s and 90s. Most batteries still work. Don't all hold a charge for long. I have bought after market batteries that were not as good as the Makita OEM. Not all batteries are created equal.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Couldn't agree less on that example. The engine would be worth 2X the value of the entire car, running.


    About 1984 I spent $2000 to get the engine and transmission rebuilt in my 1974 Dodge van. Drove it from the shop in Albuquerque to my home in Lake Havasu. After several months of trying to sell it I traded it in and got a lousy $1500 trade. A very good lesson for me. The van only had 107k miles on it. Most 10 year old vehicles are not worth fixing.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    There is an obscure car data company out of Santa Monica that supports this commentator's similar opinion that the only thing that's going to save Musk and the EV is a huge surge in gas prices.


    The market is driven by the Boomers retiring and buying that last vehicle. No one is building the right EV. An EV CUV like the Rav4 or Escape would sell decent. Of course the price has to be right. Only a fool would pay a $10,000 premium for an EV. That will buy enough gas for at least 10 years for the average retiree. And how many Boomers retiring have a Federal tax burden of $7500 and can use that credit? Now if the Feds were put a 100% tax on all IC vehicles as progressives have suggested, it would change the market dynamic.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,096
    Without the ridiculous tax break (and unknown warranty/aging issues), the cars become a lot less desirable. I have seen early Leafs with very low asking prices.

    Cheap/mainstream EVs might be helped by gas prices, but not Tesla specifically, at least with the current lineup. Those dropping 85K++ on a car aren't as sensitive to fuel prices (but will no doubt argue they are entitled to the tax break). I suspect it won't be too much different for someone wanting a loaded Model 3, which will end up stickering well over 50K.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    @gagrice, I've been surprised at my battery life - they still recharge fast and last good. With a one exception, I've had great luck with my Panasonic stuff.

    Sounds like you were able to move in the van for $500 out of pocket. Seems like a better use of resources than junking an otherwise running rig and paying a lot of money for a newer one.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Go to U-HJaul. Rent Van. 15 minutes. Done.

    If gas prices go up, chances are KwH prices will go up as well. This is because most utility companies, which are monopolies, require gov't approval to raise rates. These days they have a loophole called "fuel surcharge" to get a higher rate increase than they have historically.

    Right now, the cost per mile for a Tesla in California is roughly 4 cents. The cost per mile for a new Honda Civic getting 50 mpg is roughly 6 cents. In Washington (one of the lowest for electricity), it's roughly 2.5 or so per mile.

    So in California, the savings to the EV owner is not all that significant, presuming the non EV owner is driving a very economical ICE. And even in Washington, what are we talking about here--an extra $425 for the ICE owner? Whoopie.

    If you were driving a Dodge Viper at 12 mpg you'd be spending .25 cents a mile, and so spending $1000 more per year on fuel than an EV owner.

    Best scenario---a solar powered charging station in a state with highest electrical costs--that would be Hawaii, Alaska, most of New England.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016

    Go to U-HJaul. Rent Van. 15 minutes. Done.

    Until you have to return the rental van. Then you're on foot and looking at buying a new car ($$$) or buying something used, like a rattletrap MINI with unknown reliability. :)

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    If you put a new engine in an old car, you're still driving something old and used.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    The trick is knowing when it's used up. A six year old car would typically have 9 or 10 good years left. When you weigh repair costs against the cost of new car ownership, often it pencils out to your favor to repair the old one.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    At 16 years, it's more than used up. The repair costs don't spread out evenly over the life of the vehicle, just like depreciation costs don't either--except repair costs go in the opposite direction of depreciation.

    The longer you own the vehicle, the higher the cost per mile per year. You put a $5000 engine in a $2000 car, and you have.....a $2000 car.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited June 2016
    Yeah, but we're talking about 6 year old EVs. Doc wanted to know if I'd buy a 6 year old EV. Uh, yeah, sure. A 2010 Prius III with 75,000 miles retails for around $10k. For $2k more you can even get a CPO one. (link)

    Put a $5,000 traction battery in that one and you still have a $10,000 car for the price of ten car payments.

    A 16 year old Tesla?

    Well, would have to muse on that one. :)
  • KeerockKeerock Member Posts: 25

    Good point but the Volt is apparently no slouch. So if the Model 3, say, does 0-60 in 5.8 and the Volt does it in 7.5, is that really big enough of a deal to choose one over the other?

    If the VOLT were painfully slow in either EV or gas mode, I'd be more in your camp on this, but it actually isn't that slow, and, so I'm told (still waiting for my road test), much more fun to drive than say a Prius.

    Sorry for the long delay in reply.

    I test drove the 2017 Volt and found it to be more than enough acceleration for me. I think 7.5 is all most folks really need. That said, I drove my friend's Model S (I know the 3 won't be the same when sold in base config) but the speed difference in not comparable. That was my only point.

    Cars that run in the sub 6 second range feel completely different than the plus 7 sec range.

    Also the torque that never seems to end in the Tesla is frankly awe inspiring.

    I thought long and hard about the Model 3 and still cannot picture myself feeling 100% confident that I won't be stuck somewhere waiting for a tow.

    So the Volt has everything I need other than bragging rights. And those aren't worth 2 cents in my book.


  • KeerockKeerock Member Posts: 25

    VOLT has the Prius beat in a very important category---the EV range. Prius is going to be only 22 miles, so if we go by that study I posted you won't be able to do a normal day's driving strictly on electricity with the Prius.

    I checked on the 0-60 times, and Chevy says "under 7 seconds".


    Most reviewers are posting 7.8 to 8 seconds to 60 mph. Still plenty fast.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    stever said:

    Yeah, but we're talking about 6 year old EVs. Doc wanted to know if I'd buy a 6 year old EV. Uh, yeah, sure. A 2010 Prius III with 75,000 miles retails for around $10k. For $2k more you can even get a CPO one. (link)

    Put a $5,000 traction battery in that one and you still have a $10,000 car for the price of ten car payments.

    A 16 year old Tesla?

    Well, would have to muse on that one. :)

    But you wouldn't need to put a battery in a 2010 Prius. You might in a 2005 Prius, and those aren't worth much.

    Would I buy a 6 year old EV? Only if the battery were still warrantied for an additional 2 to 4 years.

    Would I buy a used Tesla? Not until I'm more certain that Tesla will be around in 5 years.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    @gagrice, I've been surprised at my battery life - they still recharge fast and last good. With a one exception, I've had great luck with my Panasonic stuff.

    Sounds like you were able to move in the van for $500 out of pocket. Seems like a better use of resources than junking an otherwise running rig and paying a lot of money for a newer one.

    I used it to move the ex-wife and kids from MN to Albuquerque. It barely made it. So I thought it would be worth it to get it rebuilt. I just drove it empty to AZ, to have a vehicle there. Ex was still driving the 78 Honda Accord with a brand new engine after 60k+ miles. Never again will I rebuild. Dump it before it blows. Dump it before the extended warranty is up, is even a better idea.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The trick is knowing when it's used up. A six year old car would typically have 9 or 10 good years left. When you weigh repair costs against the cost of new car ownership, often it pencils out to your favor to repair the old one.

    I wish I could convince my wife to sell her 27 year old Lexus LS400. Still runs very well. Drive it to church if we have to pick someone up. All the way up to 108k miles. Mostly sits in garage with the trickle charger attached. I don't like getting in and out of it.
  • thecardoc3thecardoc3 Member Posts: 5,742

    At 16 years, it's more than used up. The repair costs don't spread out evenly over the life of the vehicle, just like depreciation costs don't either--except repair costs go in the opposite direction of depreciation.

    The longer you own the vehicle, the higher the cost per mile per year. You put a $5000 engine in a $2000 car, and you have.....a $2000 car.

    I have a 1994 Ford Ranger Extended cab 136K that doesn't support what you wrote here. It costs me more to insure it and put the plate on it each year than it does to service it.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited June 2016
    That's because you don't take it to a mechanic! Well, you do, but you know what i mean. Besides, 136K is still within statistical service life.

    Would you really gear up to completely service and repair your own 10 year old Tesla? I don't think so.
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