Subaru Crew - Future Models II

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Comments

  • erics6erics6 Member Posts: 684
    Don't forget the Justy. Last one I saw was in a small Oregon coast town. Someone was hauling firewood in a pretty big trailer. I do like the hyundai accent sr concept.
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    The B5-TPH may resemble the Nomad, but it is just the latest in a long line of "Shooting Brakes," which is a very old and very European concept (combining a GT coupe with a wagon body).

    http://www.pestalozzi.net/sb/chevy_nomad/nomad_gallery.htm

    Other Shooting Brakes here:

    http://www.pestalozzi.net/sb/a_index.html

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Love that 2nd link.

    It's funny, some are very successful, like the Nomad, while others are UUUUUGLEE! Some have the hatch look tacked on instead of designed-in. The latter looks a whole lot better.

    I think the B5 falls into the latter group. :)

    -juice
  • alpha01alpha01 Member Posts: 4,747
    Juice,

    Starting in '05, all Camrys have ABS standard....same with Accords since '03.... even the basic Standard and DX trims, respectively...

    Not such great publicity from CR this month on the Tribeca, though the gripes they had were pretty much the ones everyone has already cited- acceleration light and lacking in second and third row comfort/space.

    High praise for ride and handling, though.

    Also, Id be all over a Subaru entry in the sub-Impreza category, a successor to the Justy. Definitely would require a turbo/stick/moonroof/hatch model. :)
    I saw the R at the HQ in Cherry Hill in July, thats TOO small, but something in between would be really really unique, especially in the under $18K market.

    -Joe
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Is the new issue out already?

    They don't hand out many style points so a design like the Tribeca (style over substance in some areas) will take a hit.

    I'd like to see Architectural Digest try a review. LOL

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    For those not up on Miller-cycle engines:

    http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question132.htm

    The B9-TPH concept uses a Miller-cycle turbo 2.0 H-4 engine with an electric motor. My understanding is that Miller-cycle engines don't make much power down low, which is where the electric (hybrid) motor comes into play.

    Bob
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Yeah, my mistake. Although it wouldn't surprise me if a B9-TPH isn't under consideration. ;)

    Bob
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
    Although it wouldn't surprise me if a B9-TPH isn't under consideration

    concur
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    This is how (good) rumors get started.

    Yum, give a 2.5T engine, though. Light boost, Miller cycle. Tune it for regular fuel.





    -juice
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    Bob, thanks for the link. That really helped me, having heard of the engine but never having had an explanation.

    If the benefit is 10%+ in gasoline, has it ever been tried for a diesel? With its higher compression, wouldn't the exhaust removal penalty be even higher?

    John
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I don't imagine it could work. Diesels have ultra-high compression ratios. I'm not sure they could get enough pressure from a supercharger vs. the much tougher cylinder walls.

    -juice
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    I was thinking the same thing, but I also know that a turbo on a diesel takes the boost up much higher than the starting point of 16 to 1. So why not a supercharger?

    John
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    My pleasure. Glad to be of help. :)

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    You mean a super-turbo? i.e. both?

    That would be expensive...

    -juice
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    no, just do away with the turbo altogther. The particular lobe style supercharger has less leakage (bypass return) than the standard centrigugal pump turbo booster, so I don't think they would need to use both.

    John
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    R1-TPH :surprise:
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I think TPH will mean "performance hybrid". We're talking Accord Hybrid pricing and up. I don't imagine seeing that for $20k, or even $25k.

    In fact I wonder if Subaru will develop a different system for the cheaper cars in the lineup. But I doubt it.

    -juice
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    I agree about the performance bit. I was just fantasizing about the roller-coaster-ride thrills of a 250-hp R1. :D

    There's got to be some option in the Subaru lineup for saving fuel without spending $30k to do so. If not, they'll continue to damage their "green" image. (That's why I'd love to see an R1e here with the new 150-mile battery range and quick recharge time. Hmm... I wonder if they could do an R2e?)
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    It would be tough, again if they include AWD they have that competitive disadvantage in both cost and fuel economy.

    Looks at CR, it's interesting, the Legacy GT and Impreza are among the very worst in their classes for fuel economy. Yet the Baja and Forester are among the very best in their class.

    It's all relative. Subaru tends to compete better when you're talking about trucks or truck alternatives.

    Put it up against fuel mising mini-cars and they won't stand a chance.

    -juice
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    It's all relative. Subaru tends to compete better when you're talking about trucks or truck alternatives.

    Juice, that is very simple and profound.

    What is the biggest market still in the US? SUVs and trucks.

    Make hay Subaru.

    John
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=mergersNews&storyID=2005-10-05- - - - T064647Z_01_TKV002217_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-TOYOTA-FUJIHEAVY.XML

    From another press release:

    Fuji Heavy Industries dissolves alliance with General Motors, entering a new business collaboration with Toyota

    Tokyo, October 5, 2005 - Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd. (FHI), a global manufacture of transportation and aerospace-related products and the maker of Subaru automobiles, today released its plan of their alliance changes.

    FHI and General Motors Corp. (GM) agreed to dissolve its strategic alliance and capital relationship and GM, the top shareholder of FHI, will sell all the FHI stocks they hold.

    In December 1999, FHI and GM agreed upon a capital and strategic alliance. Since GM purchased about 20% of FHI shares and became the top shareholder of FHI, both companies worked together for various synergic effects. The joint efforts over the past 6 years period resulted in achievements such as global procurement, OEM business, technology exchanges, etc. However, the two companies concluded that mutually beneficial large joint projects are unlikely in future, and came to agree to terminate their strategic and affiliated company relationship.

    Out of the 157 million FHI stocks that GM holds, which accounts for about 20% of the FHI outstanding common stocks, GM will sell 68 million stocks, 8.7%, to Toyota Motor Corp. (TMC). GM will sell the remaining 89 million stocks, 11.4%, in the market. At the same time, FHI plans to purchase 90 million stocks as Treasury Stock.

    FHI and GM will discuss on the future direction of ongoing cooperative projects. As for the joint development project of a crossover vehicle between FHI and Saab, which was announced last year, FHI and GM have basically agreed to stop the development. FHI has decided to record extraordinary loss of 5,000 million yen, which is a part of the development cost, in this fiscal year.

    At the same time, FHI has revised its annual profit estimate announced on May 12, after reviewing the recent circumstances such as weaker yen, sales momentum, etc. The revised figures are; Operating profit at 36,000 million yen (up 5,000 million from the previous estimate), Ordinary profit at 29,000 million yen (up 2,000 million yen), and Net profit at 12,000 million yen (down 3,000 million).

    Upon TMC obtaining FHI’s shares, TMC and FHI agreed to start studying business collaboration. The two companies plan to set up a joint steering committee to study possible joint projects to seek synergic effects in the areas of research & development and production, and to supplement each other’s technological development.

    FHI is going ahead with the 5-year business plan ending March 2007, the FDR-1 plan, and the situation change this time will not affect FHI’s relentlessness to achieve the target.


    Does this mean no more Saabarus, but more Supraus?

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I swear I read that looking at the date on my calendar.

    Not that the GM partnership has yielded anything at all for Subaru, zilch.

    GM probably felt they were not getting much, either. Remember they could not find a diesel to fit Subaru platforms for Europe, and the 9-2x could not even meet modest sales goals of 8000 units a year.

    This is good news, I suppose. GM would never have helped Subaru, look at what they did for Isuzu and Saab.

    Toyota, wow, let me digest that one for a little bit.

    -juice
  • dino001dino001 Member Posts: 6,191
    Move with Toyota shows the're serious about hybryds. I suspect FHI gets synergy drive know-how boost, Toyota gets NEC batteries (I read that availability is now the major barrier in hybryd availability). I don't think other models will be affected - too much difference in almost every aspect.

    2018 430i Gran Coupe

  • samiam_68samiam_68 Member Posts: 775
    Toyota and Subaru - this is GOOD news! Toyota can now get good AWD systems and better suspension technology, Subaru can get better engine technology, hybrid systems, traction and stability controls, and MUCH better interiors and ergonomics!

    I wonder if my Subaru Bucks wil be good towards a new 'Yota... ;)

    Saabaru was a waste - the Edsel of 21st century.
  • bblachabblacha Member Posts: 160
    There is no precedent for Japanese carmakers to own parts of each other. So, there is no way to predict what may happen. Also, it doesn't seem to be in Toyota's nature to "partner" with a small competitor. Toyota is large, strong and proud. They may want Subaru's technology, but I doubt they'll provide own technology in trade to Subaru and thus strengthen a competitor.

    This may be the beginning of a full takeover of Subaru by Toyota.
    Sure beats being taken over by GM though.

    Looking forward to reading Juice's and everyone else's take.
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
    toyota's 8.7% will be the largest shareholder of fuji after GM sells off its remaining 11+%. for some reason, toyota decided against buying all of GM shares and also decided against a full on grab of subaru. so toyota believes its 8.7% will be enough to ring out of subaru what it wants?

    i think toyota is truly trying to become the big gorilla of the hybrid world so it is making sure no one sneeks by them. i mean the b5-tph has a very cost effective implementation of a hybrid with its location of the hybrid within the powertrain.

    Therefore i dont think toyota is gonna share too much of its core with subaru and thus dont expect to see much change in subaru's plans.
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    There is no precedent for Japanese carmakers to own parts of each other.

    There's huge precedent for cross ownership in Japan - their economy is based on it. Not only of customers and suppliers, but also of competitors.
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    for some reason, toyota decided against buying all of GM shares and also decided against a full on grab of subaru. so toyota believes its 8.7% will be enough to ring out of subaru what it wants?

    Toyota only bought 8.7% of Fuji shares because it already holds 45% market share in Japan. According to a WSJ article, anti-trust concerns prevented them from buying more of those shares.

    Why did Toyota make the investment?

    It could be to get access to the AWD systems but they're Toyota. It isn't like they couldn't perhaps spend less money and develop their own. This is a $300+ million dollar investment - I think they could develop a heck of an AWD system for that much coin.

    It could be to create a captive customer for their hybrid components.

    It could've been at the request of the Japanese government or Fuji itself. GM dumping 20% of the company on the open market would've wreaked havoc on Fuji and perhaps the Nikkei.
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    why not just a good old fashion investment to make money? There may not be any immediate plans for transferring technology either way.

    John
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    Didn't Nissan, at one point, own some portion of FHI?

    Ken
  • drwalesdrwales Member Posts: 18
    The Lithium-ion batteries that FHI has (or at least has access to) are better in several regards than the Nickel-hydride ones that Toyota uses -- better charge retention, heat dissipation and better performance at temperature extremes (snow belt Subarus!).

    So Toyota gets more (and better) batteries, and presumably Subaru gets ready access to HSD... How does this affect the B5-TPH? I want a hybrid, but I want gears!

    BOB
  • kenokakenoka Member Posts: 218
    Even more than that Bob, I want TPH with a manual transmission. Okay, I'll settle for a dual clutch, DSG style tranny, but that's as far as I'll go! I think Subaru will continue with development of the TPH system, rather than trying to adopt Toyota's HSD. But they may benefit from Toyota's control systems for the hybrid. If Subaru can shortcut through all the electronic management systems involved, it should cost justify the collaboration. I think Toyota wants to corner the market for the new NEC Lamilon batteries, and this is a very convenient way to do that.
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    why not just a good old fashion investment to make money?

    I'm just letting my mind wander on possible scenarios.

    As for making money, read this yahoo article:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051005/japan_toyota.html?.v=11

    Fuji just revised it's profit forcast for this year down by 20% due to exchange issues and lack of sales momentum. Yep - that's where I'm gonna plop down $315 million.
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    keep in mind though that Fuji just isn't about cars.

    Aerospace hasn't been hot lately. Fuji also does small engines through the Robin nameplate. And their trucks and heavy equipment are major players.

    The percentage for Subaru cars? I can't recall. But it wasn't over 50%.

    I like to buy good companies when they are down and the stock price is right. It is a tried and true way of investing. Would I buy Fuji? No, but Toyota might be building their empire and diversifying and doing so at a great entry price.

    John
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    I know Fuji is more than Subaru. But Fuji reduced it's profit forecast - not Subaru. That tells me that in the short term, things aren't that rosy for the company as a whole.

    Maybe Toyota is interested in Aerospace now the Honda plans on building airplanes. Gotta keep up with the Joneses - especially now that the Joneses bought out the rest of the F1 team they didn't already own.

    I doubt it's empire building on the cheap. They kept their ownership at under 10% - the point where they'd have voting rights - to avoid anti-trust issues. If they were to buy Fuji outright, they'd probably have to spin off Subaru. Without voting rights, they have little control over the company.

    I'm leaning more towards keeping my theory that they were asked to buy in by the government in order to prevent a run on Fuji stock and possibly threatening the viability of the company.
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    boy am I ever wrong.

    Looking at FHI balance sheet by sector, the automotive portion is about 90.5% of the sales.

    You could be right about stock stability. However, Toyota's attitude was that they could care less about GM's problems. Perhaps blood is thicker than money in this case.

    John
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    Just so we're straight - my theory is the concern was for Fuji's stock stability, not GM's.
  • famof3kidsfamof3kids Member Posts: 160
    I can tell you guys that I for one am pleased to see this turn of events. I was worried when I saw the GM 20% deal. I thought something must be up when early discussions of the B9 included information about it being a shared GM platform. Then as release date got closer we all learned that wouldn't come true.

    I guess the Saabaru plan will go down the tubes, which I'm sure will please the Saab folks. Would be interesting to know how much $$$ GM spent on R&D with the hopes of using the Subaru powertrain under their vehicles. I do recall a Chevy concept with the Subaru powertrain. Subaru had hope to lean on GM for economies of scale, but, I don't think GM did anything for them except throw them some money for R&D and give them the Saab entry level market. I haven't seen any shared parts between GM and Subaru, not even something as simple as a Delco battery, ha.

    As we all know, Toyota is on a roll, and will be releasing more updated vehicles to ensure the ball keeps rolling. You guys have some good theories. Nobody knows what Toyota is thinking except the Toyota execs themselves. Time will tell..... :shades:
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Okay, did GM help Subaru in some ways.

    My understanding is that their relationship gave FHI the ability to buy parts cheaper, because they (GM) was so large. Let's hope Toyota extends that same offer to FHI.

    Diesels? GM (via Isuzu) helped develop Subaru's new boxer diesel. Again, I would hope Toyota would lend their diesel expertise too, if needed.

    Bob
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Someone over at nabisco just drove a new Legacy Spec B, so they're starting to arrive. Roughly 1 car per dealer this year; can you say "A" "D" "M?"

    Bob
  • stuhallstuhall Member Posts: 59
    Toyobaru......or Subayota...take your pick. Does this mean the resale value of my Forester goes up?
  • deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    I guess the Saabaru plan will go down the tubes, which I'm sure will please the Saab folks.

    That may be true if you think that fuel efficient Swedes are thrilled that their Saab logo will be on a GM SUV!

    Analysis:

    GM: Loser--not only did GM have an investment in the most successful AWD drive companies in the car industry, they also had shares in Fuji, a prominent battery technology company that could have provided GM/Subaru with superior hybrid systems .

    Subaru: Winner--Combine Fuji with Toyota's massive economies of scale and hybrid technology and it can only be good news for Subaru

    Toyota: Winner---It's hybrid mission for dominance has been enhanced with Fuji's battery technology. Also AWD cars/wagon do not overlap Toyota market segments.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Long-term members will recall that when GM took ownership in FHI, the first promise I made is that if GM put a Subaru badge on one of their cars and sold it here as a "Subaru" that I would resign in disgrace.

    Boy was I glad that never happened. Guess I can breathe a sigh of relief because now it likely nevery will. Whew.

    Folks, to be honest, my reaction? I'm overwhelmed with the news. Surprised, in a good way. Yowsah. This is huge. Imagine the possibilities...

    OK, Subaru has a good compact and smallish mid-size platform.

    Small? Those that have seen the Toyota Aygo might feel it would fit right in - the grille looks exactly like the new Subaru corporate look, they could just change the logo. Not that I recommend that, but check out the Aygo.

    Large? Imagine an AWD Avalon with a little dose of character....

    Truck? FJ cruiser platform....Bob could get the back-to-basics off roader he's wanted.

    Pickup? AWD Tacoma.

    Disclaimer - by no means am I hoping for a rebadge, but shared platforms with Subaru drivetrains would have tons of potential. Time for FHI to develop a bigger H6 and maybe even an H8 for those applications.

    Thing about Toyota is they are a full-line manufacturer. Compard to Subaru, which has an Impreza and a Legacy (which are related to some extent), and it would open up a lot of possibilities.

    Economies of scale, deep pockets for R&D, and an overall philosophy a *lot* more compatible than GM's.

    GM and Subaru was a round peg in a square hole. I mean that literally. The drivetrains did not share the same bolt patterns. I bet Toyota and Subaru have a lot more in common.

    And I didn't even mention hybrids...

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    as he called me on the phone yesterday just to discuss this! You know the old boy is stoked when he resorts to that. ;)

    Bob
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    see media.subaru.com
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