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Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow?
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That was said many times at the beginning of the last century as well as many times during it.
Don't write off the ICE so easily.
Even the most optimistic forecasts give us 75 years worth of oil left. Ethanol and biodiesel cannot replace it, only extend it. Add to that the rapid pace of technological advancement (compare 2001 with 1901) we should be able to replace the ICE by centuries end.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
That is not exactly true. Is it feasible would be more the case. The University of New Hampshire says we can produce enough biodiesel with growing algae in the desert south west, to supply our vehicle needs.
we found that to replace all transportation fuels in the US, we would need 140.8 billion gallons of biodiesel, or roughly 19 quads (one quad is roughly 7.5 billion gallons of biodiesel). To produce that amount would require a land mass of almost 15,000 square miles. To put that in perspective, consider that the Sonora desert in the southwestern US comprises 120,000 square miles. Enough biodiesel to replace all petroleum transportation fuels could be grown in 15,000 square miles, or roughly 12.5 percent of the area of the Sonora desert (note for clarification - I am not advocating putting 15,000 square miles of algae ponds in the Sonora desert. This hypothetical example is used strictly for the purpose of showing the scale of land required). That 15,000 square miles works out to roughly 9.5 million acres - far less than the 450 million acres currently used for crop farming in the US, and the over 500 million acres used as grazing land for farm animals.
UNH study
Even going to the station near Wrigley Field is out, I'm a south-sider so driving is out. Plus it's baseball season too; I don't have to tell you how traffic is over there.
Don't forget that the ICE can run on hydrogen. BMW is pursuing this option. And hydrogen can be made from nuclear, wind or solar energy.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
I'm glad that they think that ethanol cannot be moved by pipeline. That's all I'll say about it.
In addition, the "markets" have already adsorbed the anti-oxygenate additive problem...twice.
Boiler
But EIA, in a report last month warning of shortages, said that "new (ethanol) facilities will not start soon enough to meet 2006 demand." That, EIA head Guy Caruso told the committee, "could cause temporary supply dislocations and may cause price volatility.
"Ethanol mainly is made in the Midwest. But demand should be heaviest in the Northeast and Texas because of special clean-air fuel requirements there. Shipping alcohol costs more and takes longer because ethanol attaches to any moisture present and could contaminate petroleum pipelines — the cheap, fast way to ship
What happens if we buy FFV and no E85? It is back to burning nasty old inefficient gasoline. No thanks I will buy a diesel vehicle and wait for biodiesel.
Ethanol NEV
Ethanol from Cellulose (e.g. switchgrass or corn stover)
The energy balance from corn, then, is slightly positive. However, ethanol can also be derived from another source, namely, cellulosic feedstocks such as corn stover or switchgrass. In this case, the energy balance is much improved, as shown in Table 1 of this paper by McLaughlin and Walsh. Their data show that while the energy gain from corn grain is 21%, the energy gain from converting switchgrass to ethanol is 343%! The downside, of course, is that conversion technologies are not ready for primetime yet, as shown in the the USDA-DOE study mentioned above--the cost per gallon of ethanol from cellulose fermentation is about $1.50.
The main worry here is that corn stover will be promoted as the cellulose source, rather than perennial grasses, and that's a big concern. Growing corn is already an environmental problem, but removing all stover (analgous to harvesting corn silage--but that's another topic!) will really leave the land open to wind and water erosion. All this adds up to the fact that using perennail grass crops, such as switchgrass, makes environment sense. More work on conversion technologies is needed, but when it is available, it will mark a substantial advance over the current corn ethanol industry.
An electric car of average size can go approximately 3 miles per kilowatt-hour. In this country the typical price for electricity is around 9 cents per kilowatt hour. That comes out to 3 cents a mile. There's no gas, biodiesel, ethanol, etc. ICE solution that will approach that. The obstacles are finding a method of storing enough electricity to provide reasonable driving distances and the ability to re-charge quickly. While its impossible to schedule technological advances my guess is that these problems will be overcome a lot sooner than the end of the century. When this happens people that generate their own electricity through solar, wind, or whatever will no longer be dependant on an industry to provide the energy to power their vehicle. I hope to live to see this happen because the shake-up in the status quo will be amazing and gratifying.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Toshiba battery
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Those would keep pushing for coal gasification seem to ignore the fact that this does nothing to aleve releases of CO2 and the whole spectre of global warming. Biomass fuels essentially recycle CO2 from the atmosphere (except for energy expenditures during bio-fuel production).
If that is true, Hydrogen fuel cells are a dead deal. No other source of energy comes close to a model that will be needed for hydrogen production. Wind and solar will be lucky to keep some lights lit.
Rocky
re-enrichment. Reprocessing uranium like they do in Europe, will prevent us having to put it in Yucca Mountain. It's a huge upfront cost, but isn't it worth it ?????
Cold Fusion is the best alternative for cars. I probably won't get to see this fuel source in my lifetime, but feel someday it will be used unless something better comes along.
Rocky
RE: "MIDDLE EAST OIL" -- America doesn't get most of its oil from the Middle East...only I think 18%....
It would help if the US had a real energy policy but it doesn't.
Problem is the automakers won't invest the huge sums necessary to come up with new engine technology and the government won't invest in a crash program like the Manhattan Project in WWII to bring alternative fuels into an economically viable reality.
Looks like it will take a massive shock to our economy to spur industry and gov't to really get serious about all this.
Well this very site showed a 100% pure ethanol car built in Brazil.
Rocky
If the vehicle isn't something someone will buy, it can't be treated like a "real" car. Case in point, the first series of electrics marketed in California by Chevrolet and Honda. Big flop.
Gee, 10 percent Ethanol is subsidized and here in Iowa Middle grade (89 octane) sells for at least 10 cents a gallon cheaper than just 87 octane gas without Ethanol.
Gas mileage is the same with or without Ethanol. walmart sells all grades with 10% Ethanol and there does not seem to be any complaints. I agree that Ethanol will probably be sold only in corn and grass (forgot the name) producing states.
California will never use Ethanol, according to their US Senator Finestein, until either the corn producing states or the federal government pays for Ethanol storage, mixing and distribution...at least that is what she says. Great...let them ue just gas and pay the higher taxes that will be put on gasoline only states.
Let's face it, the days of the V-8 in autos are done and the high HP gas guzzling V-6s will be killed off by new taxes, effcient V-6s will be tolerated. I think we can expect a lot of Ethenol using hybrids and a lot more I-4s that are now challenging the hybrids in open road mileage.
Corn is a lot more of an earth friendly crop than the million of dinosaurs that created the finite supply of oil. Mega-Agriculture companies and subsidies will help us wean our dependence on Mega-oil companies and their government subsidies!
I beg to differ, E85 will result in a very noticeable drop in mileage, as much as 30+% in some vehicles. A 10% ethanol blend usually drops mileage by 1 to 3 MPG.
Corn is a lot more of an earth friendly crop than the million of dinosaurs that created the finite supply of oil. Mega-Agriculture companies and subsidies will help us wean our dependence on Mega-oil companies and their government subsidies!
The growing of corn is not very earth friendly plus we don't have the land to grow enough corn to replace the gas we use. As far as weaning us off of mega-oil companies and their government subsidies all ethanol will do is switch us to mega-companies like ADM and their government subsidies.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
I'm going into the construction industry, and need to get a truck in the next couple of months. I've been planning on getting a chevy silverado partly b/c I like chevy's and aprtly because they have an option to get a flex fuel engine, at no extra cost. The way I see it, since the engine can operate off regular unleaded, without any efficiency loss, shouldnt I get the e-85 capable engine, in the hopes that e85 goes down in price in the future?
thoughts?
Secondly I wouldn't place bets on E85 going down in the future.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
james
Faux Science 101 :P
Rocky
They both claim a lack of infrastructure, and greater consumer savings with their hybrid designs. Which I somewhat agree with... :confuse:
If you take out the fact that the hybrids cost more....You will achieve greater savings with a Hybrid. Based on the fact that you get less MPG with E85, and it currently is only $0.20 less than regular in my area, and I'm in the "Corn belt". So, E85 will "reduce" the need for oil, it will not currently save the consumer any money. The higher fuel costs go ($2.69/Gal today outside Chicago), the faster a Hybrid will pay for itself.
E85 does nothing currently other than offer an alternative to fossil fuel....and the average consumer needs more motivation than that to care.
It will take some time and motivation ($$$) to get people "en Mass" to move to E85. My suggestion is to get the Gov to subsidize E85, so it becomes an "attractive" alternative. This will help get the distribution and infrastructure quickly developed. Then, say 10 years down the road, when people have become comfortable and accept E85, the Gov can start gradually eliminating the subsidy over a period of time. This would achieve the ultimate goal of weening the US off of Fossil Fuels.
I will agree with the lack of infrastructure but not the savings.
If you take out the fact that the hybrids cost more....
Only if you take out the fact that hybrids cost more, but the fact is the will always cost more and are more complicated pieces of machinery.
Anyway a driver of an FFV can save money over E85 fuel just by using regular gas.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Points out a lot of the shortcomings of growing and processing.
It a pretty interesting read....
Ethanol From Corn
Thats my point...Most American consumers even won't consider E85 if it won't save them any money. Without a significant # of people migrating to E85, it will falter, and we are no better off.
I think most of the Auto Manufacturers are using E85 as an "easy" way into the "alternative fuel' market. All the manufacturers can easily adapt current engines to utilize E85 without significant engineering and cost. That is why GM was the first to jump on the bandwagon in the US. They have no production ready Hybrid to offer. Plus, they have been offering "flex Fuel" cars in Brazil since 2003. Flex fuel vehicles account for 30% of new car sales there.
Here is a link to one of the stories: Brazil FlexFuel
They note a savings of 40% over regular fuel. I am seeing a savings of only 12% here in the Midwest, and that gets negated by the decrease in fuel economy.
Also Brazil uses "Ethanol" only. They do not use E85.
There is an alternative theory to where oil comes from, however, called the abiotic theory of oil formation. There are some problems with the plant theory of oil formation that is true.
As for "new" oil, well it takes a long time for oil to migrate to present strata.
In any event, whatever it is that is making oil, it ain't dinosaurs.