The Current State of the US Auto Market

andre1969 · May 2013

Heck, if we used Edmunds forums to base our decisions on what we buy, we'd all be riding bicycles...

What's that old saying...the plural of anecdote is "data"? :P

Oh, and on the subject of bias, when you brought up the sludge thing, it jogged my memory. Remember when it seemed like everybody was harping on Toyota and their sludge issues? IIRC, the actual problem popped up most often in minivans, where the engine was packed in tighter, and I believe it tended to run hotter than in an engine bay with better airflow.

In most cases, you had to neglect these cars to get them to sludge up...let them overheat, run low on oil, go too long between changes, etc. But, for awhile, it seemed like Toyota was joining GM up on the whipping-boy pole.

In retrospect, it seems like a lot of engines developed a rap for sludging around that timeframe. The Chrysler DOHC 2.7, which my old Intrepid had, was vulnerable to it (although again, you had to abuse it, and I never had any problems with mine in the 150,000 miles I had it). I think some VW's were susceptible to it as well. And countless others, I'm sure. But, Toyota took most of the wrath.

And, as Tlong mentioned, he should have had a couple of transmission and a/c rebuilds on his Acura by now, according to legend.

On the subject of anecdotes, the a/c compressor on my 2000 Intrepid did seize up, when it was a little over 9 years old. And ironically enough, it was sourced by the same place that Honda gets theirs! Nippondenso or something like that? So there, Honda a/c compressors DO seize up! :P

Okay, I'll admit, that one was my fault. The system had a leak in it, and I knew about it, but was trying to put it off until the weather started getting warm again. However, one cold day in February, I was picking up a friend from the airport, and had to run the defroster. Which, runs the a/c compressor. And, that's when it seized up. If I hadn't put it off, it probably never would have done it.

uplanderguy · May 2013

Of course, they are no longer an American brand which I think will be a big reason for their positive future.

I'm guessing you're a good bit younger than me (only guessing). Fiat has had a terrible reputation and basically was driven out of this country. Even our Italian tourguide said, when passing the Fiat plant, "No, it does not stand for 'fix it again, Tony'"!.

imidazol97 · May 2013

>you had to neglect these cars to get them to sludge up

It's the handling of the problem that created some of the scandal about the toyota sludging. They insisted for years that it was consumer abuse and resisted doing anything to help the owners.

However, the oil change interval had been extended to make predicted cost of ownership lower. The cylinder heads had hot spots in them by their design that overheated the oil. There was something about the size of the oil returns that played into the problem cooking and deteriorating the oil. Also, the PVC system was later modified to increase breathing through the engine and help keep oil from gunking up from short trip driving. Add to that a problem of owners who regularly did have their oil changed at the dealer may, may have gotten lower quality oil from the bulk oil dealers put in, and had failures as well.

The observation was that the driving style with engine temp, frequent oil changes, and quality of oil were all factors that the problem design in the engine used to cause sludge. At the time toyota was saying there was no sludge, a toyota salesman on the forums here emailed me that he showed buyers of used cars at the store how to check for sludge when they looked at the used toyotas.

Add to this that people who did 3000 mi oil changes usually didn't develop the problem and pointed fingers at others who followed toyota's interval, was it 7500 mi., did develop sludge. A Cincinnati talk radio repair shop owner stated that the temperatures in the heads had hot spots based on his temperature gun's readings.

toyota could have ameliorated the problem by early on saying they had a design problem and were making changes, they would help service or replace engines, and adjusting the oil change intervals recommended along with oil quality needed. But the coverup makes the problem worse, just as in today's politics. I still believe some dealers were using subquality oil for their customers from bulk.
But that's a subject for cardoc over in the other forum.

anythngbutgm · May 2013

I'm in my forties so I vaguely remember Fiat when they were here and I do remember their quality and reliability being pretty sub-par. But whether that rubs off on Chrysler products I have no idea. I guess my point was that Fiat is also a global player, so Chrysler products have the advantage of being under an umbrella of a company that can use those benefits to fund new product or continuously improve current Chrysler products as well as possibly break Chrysler into those markets.

fintail · May 2013

Well, to be fair, that old S-class is probably 10x more complex, and is known to be a high maintenance vehicle. Isn't a Buick supposed to be easy to live with?

fintail · May 2013

The Asian and Euro makes have fed at some nice troughs too, you know.

fintail · May 2013

A low mileage (subsidized) lease might work, too, depending on the car and deal.

dieselone · May 2013

Trust me, I'm not overly thrilled about the Buick's behavior over these last three months. But, it is starting to get old...heck, the '14 models are probably starting to crop up here and there, and this thing is a 2000. This latest rash of problems started popping up around the time the '13 model year rolled around. So, maybe 13 is just an unlucky number for it?

True. At some point things are simply going to fail and it comes down to how much you like the vehicle vs. what it takes to keep everything operational.

My FIL still drives his '95 Tahoe with 180k miles. Sure, it still runs and has rarely left him stranded, but hardly anything works on it. No A/C, power locks occasionally blow a fuse long with the power seats. It's no treat to drive either. I would have had it crushed years ago, but he's just happy it gets him from point A to B and occasionally tows his bass boat.

They keep their cars until nothing is left. My MIL still commutes 100 miles a day into Chicago with her '05 Camry v6. It has around 190k on it. Remarkably it's held up very well. So far, only a wheel bearing has been replaced.

andre1969 · May 2013

Isn't a Buick supposed to be easy to live with?

You would think...and that was one of the main reasons I bought it. And traditionally, GM knew how to do big cars (and full-sized trucks) pretty well.

I guess it's complex for a Buick, having the HUD, supercharger, etc (heck, having a sunroof is high-tech for a 2000 Buick! :P )

As for the most recent catastrophe, my mechanic said that the tensioners GM used back then were cheaply manufactured, and a trouble spot. And worse, the one for the main belt has a cooling passage going through it, so when it self-destructs, you'll lose your coolant.

So, perhaps if GM had simply put a few more bucks into the tensioners, it would have paid off in the long run. And, maybe engineered the thing a bit better so that the cooling passage didn't go through one of them. :mad: AND, not make the battery so damn vulnerable.

But, for all that "faulty engineering", for lack of a better word, that I just found to pick on, I'm sure there are other examples of it, by other manufacturers. So GM's not the only guilty party, I'm sure.

ateixeira · May 2013

still cost's more than a free app and directions from your phone

True but the phone wasn't free, you'll use up your data allowance, and you need to buy a mount and a car charger because GPS sucks up power.

Cars have dead reckoning so they're a little more accurate and don't lose your position in, say, a tunnel.

The screen is bigger, and as fintail mentioned, no dangling cords (unless you take the time to build a custom mount like I have).

Not worth $2200 to me, but $400? Sure.

Toss in a backup cam, in most cases.

ateixeira · May 2013

Add to that a problem of owners who regularly did have their oil changed

You know what the REAL fix was?

An idiot light.

Change the oil, dummies!

My 2007 model has it. Haven't heard sludge mentioned since.

Blinks at each start up after 5000 or so miles. Stays lit after 5500, something like that, not sure because I don't wait that long.

Fixed.

andres3 · May 2013

But, for all that "faulty engineering", for lack of a better word, that I just found to pick on, I'm sure there are other examples of it, by other manufacturers. So GM's not the only guilty party, I'm sure.

You mean like the leaky faulty head gaskets put on every 2.0L motor from Chrysler in the mid-nineties that would ooze out all your coolant?

Or how about the bad o-rings and gaskets that would leak gas?

For balance, the crank windows never failed, nor did the power door locks (except when batteries would get eaten up regularly by other faults).

ateixeira · May 2013

Well, sort of. My brother's live-in girlfriend bought one last night. Loaded up, LTZ, 6 speed manual, 1.4l turbo engine, moonroof.

Saw photos but haven't seen it in person yet.

michaellno · May 2013

sedan or hatch?

ateixeira · May 2013

Hatch, sorry, forgot that part.

Didn't ask what she paid, but fitzmall has 2 of them. $18.8k or $19.8k. That's a bit more than I expected.

But that's always the case. I still think of prices from 2008 when I bought my last new car. 5 years of inflation.

Let's see what they have....

Leatherette
Moonroof
17" alloys
10 air bags (wow)
OnStar, 6 months of Directions and Connections
XM, BT, USB for the stereo

So pretty well equipped, but $20k? I think I'd be going with a Mazda3 SkyActiv with a little less equipment.

I sent her the CR video and they mention it is the only subcompact made in the USA, even though it was designed in Korea. Here's that vid if anyone's interested:

http://youtu.be/yXvNnhOcO_I

They seem to like it a lot.

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

I trust the wisdom of the consumer to sort out the better cars, or, more specifically, to give us a valid indicator when a car company is in trouble.

Car buyers vote with their checkbooks, which to me means that you can't accuse them of merely throwing a dart at a board filled with car brands.

If "they" voted for Toyota and Honda over GM, we're going to have to believe that they know something.

busiris · May 2013

At some point things are simply going to fail and it comes down to how much you like the vehicle vs. what it takes to keep everything operational.

As I see it, there's a very wide variance among auto owners as it relates to component lifetime expectations.

If you own a home, you have a reasonable expectation that it will survive your lifetime, even if you're only 10 years old. However, that doesn't mean nothing will need replacing during that lifetime. Chances are, if its a normally constructed house, you will need a new roof, water heater, appliances, HVAC, ... The list goes on.

So, it all boils down to defining a reasonable expectation for the lifetime of an automobile, and its parts.

You know, I don't expect brakes to need replacing at 25K miles, nor do I expect to get 250K miles from them, either. And that's the real problem...getting some sort of universally accepted service expectation and lifetime established.

I've seen complaints on forums such as a guy complaining his Nissan needed a new timing chain at 160K miles/over 10 years ownership. Is that a reasonable expectation? Not long enough? Too long?

Add to that, anecdotal evidence that some use to justify their sometimes relatively extreme position, such as "my uncle got 500K miles on his Belchfire 6000 SUX and all he did was change the oil every 15K miles".

I think I know what a "reasonable service life expectation" is for me, at least, most of the time, but I doubt it would match up perfectly with anyone else here...

busiris · May 2013

Is it equipped with the my link radio, or whatever they call it, with the smartphone interface?

anythngbutgm · May 2013

If "they" voted for Toyota and Honda over GM, we're going to have to believe that they know something.

LOL, but on other side of that fence, you have the narrowminded shills who will just call those folks out as "idiots", "Unamerican" or "sheep"...

Meanwhile they have driveways stuffed with a fleet of Mexican or Canadian built Cadillacs and Chevies and German Born Buicks or Daewoo Cruzes...

Be American,
Buy American,
Buy... Uh...

Anyways, point is, not many makes or models out there that you can't drudge up a problem spot. Heck even elite makes like Bentley and Lamborghini have their problem spots...

Thing is, traditionally it's been about how the company handles it and how it treats it's customers who are having the problems as to who will come back for another round. I know quite a few former GM'ers who won't, including one who was an actual Service Manager for their own dealership... :lemon:

Or they have enough money, they just don't care

anythngbutgm · May 2013

Agree completely. Cars are machines and none of them are going to be 100% flawless forever. Some may come back to bite you within a week of ownership, some in 10 months (like my lemon Explorer), some may not come back to bite you till your tired of it anyways and ready for a change.

I work with a guy who is currently shopping for a car for his wife. She currently drives a nearly 300 thousand mile Hyundai Sonata that has needed next to nothing in unscheduled repairs until recently. Pretty impressive right?

I also work with another gentleman who lemon lawed a brand new Elantra because the thing burned up 2 alternators in 2 months. Not so good...

What do these anecdotal stories mean to my perception of the Hyundai brand as a whole? Nothing. Just luck of the draw I guess...

I've seen complaints on forums such as a guy complaining his Nissan needed a new timing chain at 160K miles/over 10 years ownership. Is that a reasonable expectation? Not long enough? Too long?

No kidding right? 160k miles and 10 years, that thing owes him nothing as far as I am concerned. But it also is a great example of how forums can skew the facts and throw off the reputation of a vehicle or a brand. That's why I almost never use them as deciding factors when I buy.

ateixeira · May 2013

I think so but I'll ask my brother now...

ateixeira · May 2013

Yes to My Link, the radio has a touch screen and OnStar as well.

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

Fine, if someone wants to "buy American", then they are also voting with their checkbooks--but not exactly for the car itself. No problem, very noble. The French do the same thing.

But if a car company can't even succeed in its OWN country, one has to wonder how things got that bad.

My theory on why GM takes more a bashing than most car companies?

(just my theory)

For the same reason that a person who threw away a medical career to work in a Jiffy Lube is criticized much more than the drug addict who cleaned up and now works in a Jiffy Lube.

GM fell so far, so fast. It's an amazing story.

andre1969 · May 2013

No kidding right? 160k miles and 10 years, that thing owes him nothing as far as I am concerned. But it also is a great example of how forums can skew the facts and throw off the reputation of a vehicle or a brand.

That's actually one reason I'm somewhat grateful my Intrepid got totaled when it did. It had just crossed the 150,000 mile mark, and I'd had it about 10 years and two weeks, when it got hit-and-runned while parked.

It was still running fine, and the transmission still shifted well. But, I was a bit concerned about its timing chain and internal water pump. At that point in life, I figure the car really didn't owe me anything. I have no idea how much it would've cost to do the chain and pump, just as a precautionary measure, but it probably wouldn't have been cheap. I think a transmission for that car would have cost around $2500 at the time.

I could have seen myself doing the chain and waterpump as a precaution, only to have the transmission crap out a couple months later. Or, have it get wrecked, as fate ended up having it. And then I'd be kicking myself for putting all that money into it for nothing.

I also liked to have the transmission serviced every 30,000 miles, just to be safe. And that car had gone through rear brakes at 51,000 and 102,000 miles, so it was probably soon due for them again. I think it went through the front brakes at 39K, 69K, 98K, and 130K, so at that rate it was probably due for new front brakes within the next 10K miles, anyway. And, it had mis-matched tires on it by that time, although I think they all had less than 30,000 miles on them.

In a twisted sort of way, having that car get totaled actually saved me some money, that otherwise would have been spent on maintenance. Although the Park Ave I replaced it with hasn't been a poster child for low-cost service. But, it was good for awhile. I bought it in December 2009, with about 56000 miles on it. It was actually pretty trouble-free until September 2011, and around 74000 miles, when it needed a bunch of work. And new tires. And then it behaved until around 87000 miles, in October 2012, which was when it needed a new front axle and a lot of rear brake work. And now, at around 91200 miles, it's telling me it doesn't recognize me as a driver! :mad:

busiris · May 2013

GM fell so far, so fast. It's an amazing story.

Certainly from the general public's POV, but not from a purely financial POV.

I remember reading articles in finance classes when I was in grad school about the big-3's unsustainable path due to exponentially growing obligations, and I'm quite sure some of the article authors would be wondering what took them so long to finally choke.

It's not the fall out of the 100th story window that kills you, but the sudden stop at ground level. The first 99 floors might even be a fun ride for some, and its no secret that a lot of guys at the helm of GM had a fun time riding while the company tanked. They demonstrated what I like to call the "Scarlett Ohara" syndrome..."Fiddle dee dee, I'll just worry about that tomorrow".

Tomorrow finally showed up...

fintail · May 2013

Did that 3K include tires, servicing, etc?

I suppose the ~Y2K era wasn't the high water mark for many makes (2000 MY S-class for example, be scared).

busiris · May 2013

For the same reason that a person who threw away a medical career to work in a Jiffy Lube is criticized much more than the drug addict who cleaned up and now works in a Jiffy Lube.

I agree...

The top dog is the one everyone looks towards to fail.

No one notices the down-and-out guy who never had anything, but the guy that had it all and lost it is the talk of the town.

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

Debates about 'which car is better" isn't about break-downs anymore. Cars of today are way more reliable than they've ever been.

Outdated technology, undistinguished styling, poor customer service---these are now all part of what we call "dissatisfaction" with a certain make of car.

It's about overall "competitiveness", not only if your car is "good" or not.

Given two cars that are within percentage points of each other in reliability (as most are in relation to each other these days), it's the one with the better styling, better ride, more features, etc that will be more readily forgiven when it plops.

busiris · May 2013

I hope he buys the GM app and integrates his phone to the car, so you can tell us how well, or poorly it works.

anythngbutgm · May 2013

What does everyone have against Tesla?

North Carolina targets Tesla, considers banning direct-to-consumer sales

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

True enough. A car company needs to keep close track of the bottom line.

Some of the most magnificent, highest quality, most beautifully styled, most highly regarded, most dominant cars *ever* made in America crumbled into dust at the very height of their technical and stylistic achievements---during the Great Depression.

You can be very worthy and still die quickly in the automobile business.

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

A legal argument--that it violates franchisee contracts.

andre1969 · May 2013

The $3K in the past seven months didn't include tires, but did include new brake pads and rotors in the rear, which I guess you could argue are a maintenance item. It also needed swaybar links back in October, prematurely, because the previous mechanic had overtightened them severely, causing them to fail early. Oh, and an oil change.

As for the most recent bout, well the previous mechanic said he replaced the belts and a bunch of pulleys and tensioners and stuff back in 2011 (around the time it needed tires). But, the current mechanic said that the part that failed, plus the other tensioner that has the water passage in it, were factory original. However, he did say there was some pulley in the system that had been replaced, but it was a $12.00 part.

So, in its defense, not all of these repairs are the car's fault. Some of it is courtesy of the previous mechanic! :sick:

I went to the website of the dealer I bought my Ram from. They have a nice dark blue Charger R/T that's sorta tempting me....

busiris · May 2013

I remember conservative columnist George Will used to refer to GM as a "healthcare insurance and retirement benefits company that also made cars".

andre1969 · May 2013

And, for awhile they also lent money. I think the only reason GM made any money at all around 1982-83 was because of GMAC.

Also, didn't GM come close to going bankrupt around 1991 or so? I've heard that they were in pretty bad shape by that time, but they were able to keep the lid on it pretty good, so it really didn't make the headlines.

ateixeira · May 2013

Translation: dealers there have a powerful lobby.

uplanderguy · May 2013

I remember conservative columnist George Will used to refer to GM as a "healthcare insurance and retirement benefits company that also made cars".

As an aside, George Will's mother was from my hometown in NW PA and he has written of it before.

Our town only hit 10K people during WWII when there was a base nearby with a German prisoner-of-war camp. Not a suburb of anything. I've mentioned that Bill Mitchell of GM Styling grew up there, and the parents of Watergate figure John Dean, and also the parents and sister of actor David Soul, lived there in the 1970's. The Disney employee who engineered 'Space Mountain' grew up there as well. Odd for such a small town I think.

Back to cars.

lemko · May 2013

Is this the SOS button I've seen near the inside rearview mirror on Mercedes in the past?

Mr_Shiftright · May 2013

I remember conservative columnist George Will used to refer to GM as a "healthcare insurance and retirement benefits company that also made cars".

Well, that speaks truth to the fact that employee-sponsored healthcare was a kind of "default" compromise between the two alternative poles of either government sponsored healthcare (which, for better or worse, every 1st world country has except the USA and which the USA didn't want to deal with for decades), or a "Life Is What You Make It" approach, where everyone takes care of himself (or not, and welcome to the Frontier).

All these bennies are great when business is good for automakers (or when cities are raking in revenue) but when the economy swings into severe recession, all hell breaks loose with trying to honor these entitlements. They devour meagre profits at an enormous clip.

Benefits attract talent, there's no denying, and, we presume, employee loyalty, but it just got out of hand. Scapegoats abound, but for whatever reason, the GM model did prove unsustainable.

lemko · May 2013

Ask my BIL about his 2000 S430!

circlew · May 2013

Car buyers vote with their checkbooks, which to me means that you can't accuse them of merely throwing a dart at a board filled with car brands.

If "they" voted for Toyota and Honda over GM, we're going to have to believe that they know something.

AMEN!!

ateixeira · May 2013

I guess the state of the US Auto Market ain't so bad after all...

http://www.freep.com/article/20130512/BUSINESS0104/305120068/Brazil-unsafe-cars

Found some footage, here's Celta, the roof buckles:

http://youtu.be/zAjaTfs5O6U

Fiat Novo Uno isn't much better:

http://youtu.be/hqNVpawK8Z0

Corsa also awful, perhaps the worst of the bunch:

http://youtu.be/5Obyuyh9K-U

JAC J3 some how manages to score one star even with air bags, impressively bad!

http://youtu.be/ZvJ_LYUCfcU

ateixeira · May 2013

5k or so Legacys for steering.

Too bad they're not recalling them to make them smaller and sportier, more like the 2005-2009 models.

uplanderguy · May 2013

Car buyers vote with their checkbooks, which to me means that you can't accuse them of merely throwing a dart at a board filled with car brands.

If "they" voted for Toyota and Honda over GM, we're going to have to believe that they know something.

AMEN!!

I do think that, despite all of us on edmunds.com, the vast majority of car buyers aren't 'car people'. They buy on magazines or what their friend or neighbor says. I'm not sure I'd say something like not to 'underestimate the intelligence of the American public', but I think that's been said by somebody already!

busiris · May 2013

Up until WWII, relatively few employees knew what "benefits" were.

During the war, wage and price controls were put into effect, but companies found a way around those limits (and a way to retain/attract talented workers) by throwing in benefits, which weren't addressed by the imposed controls.

After the war, the insurance industry realized companies offering benefits would be an excellent growth market, so they encouraged companies to offer health insurance in a big way. They actually pushed for more avenues of coverage (exactly opposite of today, now that costs have hit the roof), because, from their standpoint, it meant more revenue. The exorbitant costs came years later....

After a couple of generations passed, and the population started seeing benefits as more of a right than a privilege, things really started getting out of hand.

Many companies discounted actuarial accounting of what was to come, and the trend continued, like there would never come a time when they needed to pay the piper. They weren't alone. Think Social Security, national debt....

That's the reason pensions are all but disappearing, and there's a movement to nationalize medical coverage. Pass the buck to someone else. In this case, everyone.

Someone else said something to this effect a few posts back... Capitalism earns the profits, but the costs get paid by socialism.

imidazol97 · May 2013

>the number of Americans the company employs.

I gotta add to that the number of full-time "Muricans" that are employed in the plant. Lots of part-time employees in some plants because there are no unions.

circlew · May 2013

Just remember it took a LONG TIME for GM to go bankrupt and for Toyota, Honda, et al, to grow to where they are today.

Sooner or later, failures fail no mater how big they "used to be".

That's directed at all the "Bigs" in the auto business today as well.

busiris · May 2013

Well, there is certainly ample evidence that we live in a world moving into an ever-deepening gap between technology users and technology understanding.

If it weren't so serious an issue, it would be comical watching these old geezers in Congress legislating limits/privileges on technology without having any clue to what they were attempting to regulate.

So, they rely on others to write the legislation that they ultimately enact, and usually the writers of said legislation have ulterior motives in how they craft their "suggestions".

NGC currently has a series on called "Brain Games", in which its demonstrated just how much the public's views and opinions are controlled by marketing... And, lets face it, politicians market themselves just like companies do, and they're all out to sell us something. Car makers are no different in that respect.

So, while I suspect most folks would tell you they researched their new car purchase in detail, once you started quizzing them on exactly how deep that investigation went, you might find it wasn't very detailed at all...

My grandad used to say people were a lot like cattle... They like to be herded... At my age, I think he was much more accurate in his judgment than he knew.

I think you're right...

busiris · May 2013

I gotta add to that the number of full-time "Muricans" that are employed in the plant. Lots of part-time employees in some plants because there are no unions.

At the local BMW plant, they use a lot of contract employees from a company called MAU which are full-time 40 hour a week employees.

Technically, I guess one could call it part-time work, but I usually think of part-time work being less than 40 hours/week.

Many, but not all, of the line workers I know that currently work in the plant and are current BMW employees started out as MAU workers. After they had proven themselves, BMW officially hired them. I'd be surprised is that style of hiring employees is unique to BMW, or car manufacturing in general, in non-union US plants today.

A paycheck is a paycheck, regardless whose name is below the signature line.

imidazol97 · May 2013

>Scapegoats abound, but for whatever reason, the GM model did prove unsustainable.

Do you mean "GM model" or do you mean "union model at US companies"? The unions hit whichever company was most flush with profit for their potential strike during negotiations. They swung a heavy hammer in negotiations because shutdowns would cost sales and profits while the other two companies sold more to lost buyers. Then the unions pushed a similar agreement onto the other two companies after settling with the strongest.

The problem is the perp of those power plays for benefits that are unsustainable was given part of the company and retained their power over the company in the reorganization by the government. So GM (and Ford) are at risk still at the hands of the union, along with whatever management flaws they had and mistakes management made through the previous decades (both several in number).

The Current State of the US Auto Market

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