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The Current State of the US Auto Market
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Comments
I don't know that we could call the Big 3's downfall 'sudden' but they have had some pretty hard drops on the roller-coaster of market share. The years 1977-82 and from 1996 to now have not been pretty.
Recently I was ridiculed for having used the common colloquial phrase with the pronoun "everyone" instead of "a few" or "some." I didn't realize I was writing a thesis.
It's getting rough.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I agree with much of your analysis, but it wasn't exactly like the unions didn't lose anything in the restructuring...
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/18/business/la-fi-economy-wages-20111218
At the end of the day, I'm not all that sure the union's "clamping" hand on the manufacturers' throats is as quite as tight as some might wish to see, or as dictating as others might wish to think.
Absolutely true that when people vote with their wallets it means a lot.
That is the problem with politicians, they vote with other peoples money. They spend YOUR money on 7,500 dollar tax credits for cars no one wants, and on many other things they would NEVER be willing to spend their own money on.
Yes. I recall reading somewhere, maybe in Bob Lutz's book, that a specific negotiation with GM found little resistance from GM management to the wants of the UAW, and that started the gift of unsustainable perks rolling. I am hesitant to guess from memory so I won't be critized for being wrong, but it seems it was 1991 or so that was mentioned.
Maybe someone else knows what I read and where.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I think you're right...
That may be true for a $20 blender, or even a $250 Vacuum, but I don't think it applies to a $25,000 new car.
I would think the amount of time, thought, and research goes up with the purchase price.
Or the very unworthy die extremely slowly, repeatedly, or not at all thanks to bailouts in the automobile business.
I would think the rich would characterize that as the smart get to earn the profits, and the dumb get to pay for the losses.
Maybe they'd say the rich get to pocket the profits, and the poor get to pay for their losses.
Unfortunately, Detroit's behavior in their oligopoly years left a bad taste in many buyer's mouth, helping Japan successfully enter the market, and those experiences rubbed off on many people's kids down the road. How did Detroit handle Japan? Well they didn't initially try to work on quality or pricing. Instead they pushed Congress for trade restrictions. Then it was blaming currency, but unfortunately that just resulted in transplants broadening the foreign producers US foot print. Really, Detroit wasted several decades relying on trucks and political blaming games until gas prices forced them to wake up. Hopefully, their recent rebirth will continue to make inroads since luckily most Americans are forgiving people over time.
Sheesh, I had fewer repairs in my '97 Cavalier at 129.6K miles than you have had on your TL.
I know...it's anecdotal when it's domestic; fact when it's something else.
My older daughter is doing her best to talk me into a Jeep Wrangler with her $$ input. For several reasons I think that's a bad idea, including a friend who told me to Google "Jeep Death Wobble"...and another Jeep-loving friend who off-roads his, did confirm his has the 'death wobble'. Anyway, I looked at CR's reliability survey results.
Here's yet another thing that bugs me about their results:
Avoid the 4-door Wrangler for problems; two-door OK.
Really?
For an '09, trans on the 2-door 'much worse than average' but 'much better than average' on the 4-door? Why? I know sample error happens, but there it is in print: 'Avoid the 4-door'. Sheesh. (Trans is apparently one area where the four-door is better.)
I simply cannot believe that the addition of two doors causes more mechanical woes.
Aside from job retention, it was a matter of national pride.
I mean, look what happened to the British automobile industry and motorcycle industry. Japan destroyed their motorcycle industry in about 3 years---wiped out what was once world dominance and relegated British two-wheelers to a minor role today. And their car industry staggered along, just getting worse and worse, until even their most famous marques became an embarrassment.
Aside from Morgan and racing chassis and a few bizarre little cars, they don't even make British cars anymore.
I don't think the American public would have tolerated such a debacle.
This is anecdotal evidence, so be warned...
Having a few BMW products, I spend a little time on a couple of BMW forums.
I can't count how many times I've seen posters in an uproar because they found out their cars had RFTs and no spare tires.
Other than the M series cars, BMW has been making cars that way for many years.
I would think the amount of time, thought, and research goes up with the purchase price.
A large segment of new car buyers, at least from my experience, don't bother to ever open up, much less read their owners manual after they buy the car. That doesn't bode well for the idea buyers do their research before the purchase.
Ask your coworkers and friends if they've ever completely read their owners manual on their $20,000+ purchase. See what they say...
From what I've seen, many more buyers select vehicles based upon style and things like claimed gas mileage efficiency rather than researching the car's probable reliability and residual value in any detail.
Oh, everybody had troughs. I'd love to see a chart of the relative sizes of those troughs, though.
As for the transmission being more reliable in the 4-door version than the 2-door, the only thing I can think of is that the 2-door probably gets taken off-road more often, gets stuck in the mud, is used to pull other rigs out when they get stuck, and so on, and perhaps all that muddin' and such is enough to sway the statistics?
>Sheesh, I had fewer repairs in my '97 Cavalier at 129.6K miles than you have had on your TL.
I spared the ritual comments when I read that:
How much was spent on the Honda TL on Scheduled maintenance?
And of course does the TL owner realize that's just one example, certainly not typical of costs. I won't put in a reference to the "perfect" cars that some have always used in their anti-GM, anti-US manufacturer, postings in the previous forum, because I think some have come to understand that no cars are perfect. Sort of llike saying "Everyone" as a colloquial phrasing....
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Our '99 TL with 143,000 has the original transmission and A/C compressor. However, the transmission problems started with the 2000 model, when they replaced the 4-speed, which works well, with a new 5-speed, which was problematic through the '03 model year.
I had to add refrigerant to the A/C a couple of years ago. With the hot weather coming I'll check it again soon, to see whether it needs to be topped off again.
Our TL has been an excellent car. Problem now is that a SUV rear ended it yesterday while my wife was stopped at a stop light. Fortunately nobody was hurt. The damage to the TL was considerable, but hopefully not enough to total the car. Hopefully.
But, like the mighty Phoenix rising from the ashes, it's back! Until something else breaks, I guess. :P
I drove it to work today, and during lunch I'm going to fill it up. Hopefully a full tank might help jig the fuel gauge needle loose.
I test drove a few used one's a while back and was more than impressed. My wife was considering a different position which she would have lost her company car and I was shopping for a car for her. I test drove a new Saturn Aura XR and a used 04 TL with 35k miles on it the same day. I liked the TL much better. It was tight, smooth, and responsive and definitely was a nicer car. I thought the Aura was a decent car (except the one I drove while only having a few miles on it had a buzz in the dash), I would have bought the TL in a heart beat if we would have needed a car at the time.
I've yet to sample a domestic that has a powertrain that is as smooth and responsive as the v6 Acura's I've driven.
Seems to me GM vehicles were prone to electrical issues back then. The two Park Ave's my grandpa had both developed numerous electrical gremlins as they got close to 100k. Tire monitors not working, wipers that would just turn on randomly etc. HVAC control problems
My '00 Suburban had a bunch of electrical issues too. If I turned on the fog lights, the washer pump would run. When in reverse, the rear wiper would occasionally move an inch or two and go back down. The 4wd selector switch would sometimes be inoperable (common problem), then the heat would get stuck on which required a $600 control unit to be replaced.
My Expedition has had similar issues too. The auto climate control when haywire where the fan blew on high all the time and I've had issues with with the driver window regulator.
The most disappointing area with my expedition is the paint and trim. The paint is flaking and bubbling on the tailgate (common problem) and the plastic trim along the the top of the doors is faded and cracking. It looks like it has been sitting in the sun for 20 years.
I think that is roughly the model years I really liked. Just a nice sporty sedan. The current model looks over styled and bloated. Probably still a nice car, but I'm certainly not drawn to them like the previous generation.
That 04-08 model was such a nice design compared to the messes (across the Acura line) that have come since.
No matter, we get to play the same game as the competition, or not allow their game to be played on our playground. No other options.
Oh yeah, I will also add the direct and indirect military and related aid provided by the American taxpayer to the competition as part of that trough.
Back in the mid '00 there simply weren't many domestic cars I liked at all. That has changed with the current line up. There are several domestic cars I'd consider today.
I'm a perfect example. A Mini Cooper, for its size (is there a formula for 'cost per inch"? :P ) costs just as much, I would figure, as a BMW 5-series to maintain and repair, and I'm SURE way more than a Chevy Malibu.
But I don't want a Chevy Malibu or a BMW sedan. So I fork up to drive what I like.
QUESTION: do you think the majority of people buy cars they don't like all that much? In other words, do things like gas mileage and cost of repairs overrule things like styling and performance and "fun"? Do people who pay $35,000 for a minivan get into it every morning and hate it?
Or is it all more or less "neutral"? You know, "well you gotta drive something and this will do".
Certainly lowering the price helped.
All told, Nissan, which recently started producing US Leafs at its Tennessee plant, has sold 62,000 Leafs globally. :shades:
I know you're not a GM fan, but that would have been free from GM, and they would have also provided a rental.
I've heard Mini's can be expensive. I have a BIL with an 05 or so Mini Cooper S. He recently replaced the power steering pump and cooling fan. It was like $1,800 (in Honolulu).
QUESTION: do you think the majority of people buy cars they don't like all that much? In other words, do things like gas mileage and cost of repairs overrule things like styling and performance and "fun"? Do people who pay $35,000 for a minivan get into it every morning and hate it?
I don't have a good answer. I think a vehicle means different things to different people. I drive an Expedition because it's flexible enough to haul 8 people when needed (my daughter has a large group of friends) and I can tow our boat with it. We like to be on lake and that's where we splurge.
If it wasn't for the boat, I'd have a luxury/sport sedan. Something like Fintail's E class or a 5 series, maybe even a CTS. While I'd love to have a dedicated sports car, I can't justify spending that much money on something only I would enjoy (maybe when the kids are gone). We just have to much going on and I'd rarely be able to drive it. Like most of my neighbors with their corvettes always sitting under a cover.
I think many people want/need something that is comfortable, and relatively inexpensive to get from point A to point B. Just put gas in and go. Probably why the Camry has been on the top of the sales charts for so long. My MIL likes hers. It's reliable and gets her to work. Nothing more.
Few dream of owning a minivan, but with kids, car seats, and strollers, they are the ultimate family vehicle in terms of room/economy and they don't drive like a truck. We had one years ago before all our friends had kids. We got made fun of. Funny thing is as they all started families, many now have a minivan.
True, but that's part of the implied warranty. Honda didn't have to do it.
I may by a new GM vehicle in the future, but the warranty won't be a deciding factor;)
I'm waiting to test drive the new Silverado and see what happens with the redesigned Suburban.
I concentrated on the idea of me buying myself a brand new pickup truck.
What popped into my mind (the truck I'd look at first) was the Ford F-150.
In truth, I have no freakin' idea why I chose that. WHO got into my head and made me think that?
I really don't know one pickup from another these days.
Of course, if I really went shopping, I would start my homework and might end up with a different make.
But it was interesting to discover what my "lean" was, and how basically irrational it might be.
Oh me too. I test drove an Ecoboost f150 Lariat a year or so ago and it was a really nice truck. It was comfortable, powerful, and refined (for a pickup). The crewcab has a insane amount of room. The rear seating area offers more legroom than most large sedans and a lot more than my Expedition.
I'm a little hesitant regarding the Ecoboost. It's by far the strongest gas motor I've sampled in a pickup, particularly at low to mid range rpm. It just pulls. But FE doesn't seem to be anymore than a v8, though it does have more torque at a lower rpm than any of the gas v8's available.
I'd definitely drive a 5.0v8 model before pulling the trigger. Also a few weeks ago I test drove a '13 Ram Laramie crew cab which also was a very nice truck. It also drove nice and was comfortable. It definitely appeals to those who want more visual excitement inside and out. It has the nicest looking interior by far of any truck I've been in.
The Ford has more capability in terms of weight capacity and towing. The same for the new Silverado. I don't care for the current Silverado, but I expect the new model to me much improved, but from pictures the styling inside and out leaves me a bit cold, but I certainly would like to check it out.
That must say something about the expectations of quality being somewhere in the ballpark of the actual quality owners experience in ownership of the vehicle.
And, you've been smothered in advertising over the years by Ford. Some of it stuck with you.
Here's another little mind game. Think about buying a new car. What brand comes to mind first? Why do you think is was that make and model?
So anything "new" for me would have to be utility oriented, rather than peformance oriented---I'll get my performance from a used vehicle.
I mean, really, you can pick up some very good performing used cars these days for not a lot of money. It's not like there have been HUGE gains in performance these last ten years. A 2003 Corvette or Porsche or even MINI is plenty fast and plenty competent.
Have you seen the SIZE of the owner's manuals in some 2013 cars? It's absurd!
Reminds me of my friend who asked me the other day wondering if he should get the new Galaxy S4 android phone or the new iPhone.
I looked at the list of features, then look at at my friend, and said--"just buy a cheaper HTC because you are NEVER going to use 90% of what those phones do"
I'm the same way about new cars. I'm paying for stuff I will never use, or care about.
The owner's manual for my 2012 Ram won't even fit in the glovebox. I have to keep it in the center console. And, I'm ashamed to say, I have yet to even open the thing...
Would be nice to see some of these newer models with the In dash Interface contain the user manual data. heck, there are APPS being built into cars nowadays, might as well include one for searchable car info...
Dodge Charger. But, that's because I've been kinda wanting one, ever since the 2011 restyle.
Oh, mine's a fairly strippo model, so it doesn't have that. Heck, it took me a couple months to even notice the little "step" and "reset" buttons on the steering wheel! One day I pressed the "reset" button out of curiosity to see what it did, only to see the trip odometer go to zero. There's a button on the gauge cluster that cycles through the odometer, two trip odometers, the "Eco" setting which lets you know if it's running on 6 or 8 cylinders, and outside temp. Turns out the step button on the steering wheel just does the same thing.
Actually, I did open the owner's manual once, when the tire pressure warning light came on. It mentioned that sometimes, even after you've properly inflated all of your tires, it can take up to TWENTY miles for the damn light to go off! Luckily, I discovered that it usually goes off after a few seconds worth of continuous driving. It's rare my truck even gets driven 20 miles at a time, so in theory that light could almost forever!
When I buy any new product (of any significance) I go to the manufacturer's website and download the manual(s) to my laptop and iPad. Much easier to go directly to the section you want and get your answers, and much faster/convenient. All your manuals in one place.
If I was younger I would also download them to my iPhone, but at my age, presbyopia has set in, and my arm isn't long enough to hold the phone far enough away from my face so I can read the tiny text.
My new car has the major manual topics loaded into the car's computer to be read on the nav screen - but minor details refer to owners manual.
She had a fit! :P Even after I showed her it was just the mph/kmph conversion, she still wasn't overly impressed with me that day.
Can't think of many domestics I would want from Y2K either.