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There was no conspiracy, as such, not an overtly intentional one anyway, involved with the Challenger disaster. All of the expressed concerns of the various engineers did not see the light of day until the concerns became public knowledge, undeniable as a result of the crash itself.
Same thing as the BP gulf oil spill, only now are we learning the expressed concerns, internally expressed concerns, of those engineers, at all levels, companies and government oversight agencies.
Toyota's job after the Saylor crash was to quickly SQUELCH the issue in order to prevent the underlying concerns of the myriad of people closely involved from inadvertently coming to light. The longer the issue remained in the public eye the more information would be fed to it, not attributable to the actual source, of course.
Toyota, obviously, was successful on that measure.
What we now need, regrettably, if Toyota really does have a firmware flaw, is another Saylor-like incident to wake up the media and the US public.
Complex explanation: "Someone's hiding something"
Simpler explanation: "No one has yet found a provable defect".
Simplest explanation: "there is no defect"
(Mr_Shiftright) I'll take "Vehicle UA" for 2000, Alex...
Ummm... What is "There is no defect?"
(Alex) Correct! You have the board, Mr_Shiftright...
Not necessarily..
It is entirely possible that at this very moment the NipponDenso firmware specifiers, designers, and composers are diligently looking over the source code in hopes of finding the flaw. Were I Toyota I would NOT assume there is no design flaw within the engine/transaxle ECU control firmware when the available evidence so clearly indicates otherwise. They may have squelched the media and the public's interest in the Saylor and the Sikes incidents but you could bet your bottom dollar that someone is concerned enough to force an investigation.
From Toyota's viewpoint there was nothing good that could come out of the public's continuing news interest, firmware flaw or not.
Trying to cover up NEVER works.
I don't think Toyota has a clue what's going on, nor does anyone else.
The sudden nature of this problem, arising "all of a sudden" and now, amazingly, just as quickly disappearing, does suggest a kind of mass hysteria....possibly fueled initially by a rare and real problem....but we don't know, the owners don't know, the scientists don't know, and Toyota apparently doesn't know.
Only the lawyers seem dead certain. :P
Let's be realistic here -- if there were some extremely rare set of circumstances in the computer coding of a modern automobile, it could take years of testing to find it and replicate the exact combination of events.
Toyota is between a rock and a HARD place. Assume Toyota strongly suspects, as certainly they should, that a firmware flaw exists. Until it is found and a reflash recall program can begin all they can do is dummy up, pretend that the problem is elsewhere in hopes that the buying public's fears of the unknown can be abated.
IMMHO the failure profile/probability is low enough that we may never see a recall, just new, fixed, firmware implemented on future models.
Smoke and Mirrors.
That's what both recalls, the floor mat and gas pedal, was all about, keep the public, and the media probably moreso, from focussing on the possibility of what might really be, is most likely, at fault.
How many owners of the recalled vehicles simply ignored the recalls..? Ignored because they could so easily address the issue themselves without the bother of scheduling a dealer visit. Or like myself just simply saw that the recalls were only a way to distract the public.
Saw the bottom of the gas pedal off...reminds me of the old joke involving the Catholic priest, the Protestant minister, and the Rabbi.
I rented a 2010 Toyota Sienna for a week's vacation just recently. I noted immediately that the front (carpet) floor mats, most likely aftermarket, were not in any way secured to prevent them from sliding forward. During the week I pulled mine back into place at least three times.
I was curious to learn if the floor mat really could block the gas pedal. Each time I found it slid forward it was under, well under, the gas pedal and did not represent any threat that I could see. Had the driver's side been an AWFM it would have gotten TOSSED immediately.
In any case as I returned it to the rental agency I tossed the driver side floor mat into the back and advised the agent that they should be more watchful. The agent's response indicated that he knew of the recall but was simply ignoring it.
Yes, exactly..!
"...and replicate the exact combination of events..."
That, actually, may NEVER happen. Or only unless it is done post discovering the firmware flaw via other methods.
That, in essence, is Toyota's problem, until the firmware flaw is actually found a recall campaign (***) cannot be used to aswage the public's concern.
*** Other than a "make-do" one that only has the purpose of distracting the public's interest.
POOR benchmark as I NEVER plan to enter the water.
And, all 3 happening at the same time!
Would YOU get into the water if there was even a rumor of a great white having been spotted in the area..??
Depends upon how I heard the rumor, and from whom...If its from a drunk on the beach or a little kid, probably not. If its from a lifeguard, probably so.
The mathmatics of UA don't lie, though.
1-Take the number of suspect vehicles (millions)
X
2-The number of possible UA events. And, since they have been reported as soon as the vehicle was placed into gear, as well as after being on the road for a lengthy period of time...it appears that UA can happen spontaneously any time the vehicle is running and in gear. Now, couple that with the time periods needed for one to recognize they were experiencing a UA event (lets be generous and say 30 seconds, so a 1 hour trip in a single car would equal 120 potential UA event possibilities). A million cars on the road in a day for 1 hour each equals 120 million UA event possibilities.
And there are the odds of experiencing UA.... 1 X 2 = Odds of a UA event.
So, how many suspect UA autos are on the road daily, and how many total hours are the cars running and in gear on the road?
And, how many total reported UA events?
Looks like pretty slim odds for an event, and judging by the very few reported cases, the numbers appear to prove the point.
Is this the one....?
Is this the one....?
...The one that's going to depart and arrive on time?
...The one that doesn't lose or destroy my baggage?
...The one that doesn't have a passenger sitting next to me that has a butt big enough for both our seats?
That's what I wonder every time I get on a commercial airliner... If I was that worried about surviving the flight (even though statistically, its far more dangerous driving to and from the airport than flying on the aircraft), I simply wouldn't fly at all....or, ride in a car.
Humans always have trouble with Perception vs. Reality. We think, for instance, that crime is on the increase, but statistically it is way way down in the past decade, on all fronts, in all states, for all crimes.
So people can *think*, and genuinely believe, that their Toyota is going to run away with them, but in reality, the risk is infinitesimal.
Exactly the same point I was trying to make back in posts #433 and #449.
Forget about the political message imbedded in the video, but do pay attention to the numbers and how they are represented in pennies...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWt8hTayupE
Just GETTING into a car is extremely dangerous----if the President suddenly announced that 40,000 Americans would be sacrificed to the Hindu god Kali, we would of course be outraged. But we drive every day without much regard for the huge annual fatalities on our roads----and yet, are very concerned about a UA incident.
Now, let it snow or the streets ice up and how many of us, what %, will simply stay home rather than take the extra additional risk....?
So of course many of us would be reluctant to drive/own a car that we have doubts about....
I haven't yet flown on a B777 and given a choice I wouldn't.
I think that a lot of us feel that the CHP off-duty Officer and his family didn't deserve to be on a Toyota thrill-ride just because they chose Toy/Lex as a brand and needed some service done to their Lexus sedan.
Not a pretty picture and then, hearing the 9-1-1 tape in it's entirety just made it all come back in all it's frightening, freaky truth. And Toyota's "were spending $1,000,000 an hour on safety" ads coming at us now are ridiculous and pathetic.
Talk about trumping up safety in name of trying to save face. A tad bit too late.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Don't you think? Is the jury still out on this one?
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
So of course you left out other common reasons for not driving in bad weather that have nothing whatsoever to do with your car
- example - I don't like the road conditons - I'm not feeling well, I'm tired etc. etc. etc.
using your logic with those reasons you missed your conclusion would be "so of course many of us would be reluctant to drive/own a car when when we doubt our driving abilities or road conditions. - which of course is self evident
After 4 months of intense media scrutiny, thousands of investigations, reward offers, lawsuits and congressional hearings - major news outlets, NHTSA, NASA, courts and God himself have failed to find a single case where a Toyota accelerated out of control by itself.
Ask yourself what the chances are that all these institutions are wrong in their findings they have managed to publish to date. So far all of them have stated they cannot confirm a single verified case of SUA.
Right. And pigs occasionally fly about on their own, too? And Seattle used to have their own NBA basketball franchise, too, didn't they?
Wait a minute. The Seattle Supersonics were...real. Weren't they?
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Just so you know the year is 2010, we live on the planet Earth, we have been building and selling cars for well over 100 years and in all that time not one vehicle anywhere in the world has been investigated and found to have a defective part or system that would cause it to accelerate out of control and at the same time have its brakes fail.
All you're doing is repeating accusations from old ladies - common garden vareity mainstream Fox/CNN nonesense most people under the age of 50 gave up on 5 years ago. Join the modern age and back up your claims with a source all of us can read for ourselves - How bout a link or two? It makes your statements more credible - or not depending on your information source. Published info from SAE is good
The Prius is even worse in that it COMPLETELY blocks brake fluid pressure to ALL wheels until the two computers controlling the overall braking effort decide that regen alone cannot do the job.
Press on the Prius brake pedal (up to a point) and all the brake pressure does is compress a spring to "simulate" the feeling of actual hydraulic braking. Driving along in a Prius the normal situation will be with the brake fluid continuously BLOCKED from reaching the brake calipers.
That will remain the case when you first apply pressure to the brake pedal until the decision is made between the two processors, traction control and HSD control, as to which will provide braking and how much.
When you step on the brakes the brake pedal pressure triggers a sequence wherein the traction control computer "tells" the HSD computer how much braking is currently required. The HSD computer is SUPPOSED to QUICKLY respond back with a message regarding how much of the required braking level can be supplied via regen. Obviously the traction control computer must make up the difference, if any, using the hydraulics.
When the HSD computer doesn't respond QUICKLY you get the current 2010 recall campaign.
So what happens if the HSD computer is "out to lunch", to busy executing the CC accelerate mode, and doesn't respond to the question....??
Just ask Sikes.
Everyone please note for safety reasons his ABS statements are completely false. He is clearly suggesting the ABS system becomes blocked in a way that you cannot apply the brakes. Again this is completely false.
FMVSS 105 does not allow this - for a really obvious reason - its clearly ridiculous.
"S5.5.2 In the event of any failure (structural or functional) in an
antilock or variable proportioning brake system, the vehicle shall be
capable of meeting the stopping distance requirements specified in
S5.1.2 for service brake system partial failure.
FMVSS 105 - http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/cfr_2003/octqtr/49cfr571.105.htm
By the way I noticed you didn't mention your source for your claims? Having trouble finding any? credibility is fading
Anecdotal evidence is, alas, not evidence. It's what people "think" happened.
Fading?
LOL!
It "got gone" a long time ago!
Regardless how much someone might "feel" that a particular thing is happening, that "feeling" in no way has an effect on what is reality, and what is really happening.
That's the big problem we have in this country (maybe the world) today. Far too many people basing decisions on "junk science" and emotions, instead of sound, tested and verifiable methods of reasoning.
And, I think its only going to get worse.
Yes, and while you're at it, also ask him why he refused to do any of the things the 911 operator suggested to slow the car down.
Just curious, did you ever bother to listen to the actual 911 call concerning the incident? Its several minutes of my life I will never get back.
http://priuschat.com/news/runaway-prius-911-call-released-listen-here
My car can't slow down," he began when a California Highway Patrol dispatcher answered his call.
During the two 911 calls, Sikes ignored many of the dispatcher's questions, saying later that he had to put his phone on the seat to keep his hands on the wheel.
Leighann Parks, a 24-year-old dispatcher, repeatedly told him to throw the car into neutral but got no answers.
Factually, I thing UA is a real possibility, especially considering the sheer volume of cars, hours on the road, etc.
But, if Sikes is the best "poster boy" one can come up with in an attempt
to move their position forward, don't be surprised if you are laughed out of the room or considered to be along on the same "ride" with "conspiracy theorists".
FYI.... Mr. Sikes' new ride...
http://priuschat.com/category/news-tags/james-sikes
Hmmmm...,
I don't think I have ever seen an ABS hydraulic porting manifold that could read...
Oh, don't worry, we're spending $1,000,000 dollars an hour that we've already over-charged you for our over-hyped vehicles voluntarily putting our own brand of bubble-gum in the holes in our cars. Just for you. Just because we're those sorts of peoples.
Yeah, right. They build 'em bland and boring and they back 'em up with good, strong bubble-gum. Oh I feel so much betta.
Deny-denial-deny-denial-deny-run-run-runaway from all yer problems.
Because you're just nice people who build good, strong, tenement tower cars.
That don't take off with pedals of their own. Right.
3 ta 1, Toyota leads in UA run-run-run-aways and nobody talks about it and nobody admits up to it. It's too nasty and too adult. It's....bad. And Toyota's good-good-goody-goody gumdroppy good.
Right. There's no Toyota-bred UA problem. It's all in yer silly little heads. You people are just imagining all of this. Go away! Run as fast as you all can! You leave us here to ourselves. It's our little automotive sandbox and you're not invited.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
I'm not really into faith-based auto mechanics myself. Consider this:
What is the essential difference between
a) a problem that may exist but can never be replicated
b) a problem that does not exist
So what we have at the moment is a UA theory about as tangible as String Theory, at the moment anyway.
Now, for some facts, instead of opinion...Here's an article posted today.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/toyota-perplexed-nhtsa-calls-on-the-national-ac- - ademy-of-science/
From the article...
The Wall Street Journal reports members of congress, consumer advocates and product-liability lawyers have continually suggested that engine electronics could be the source of the Sudden Unintended Acceleration (SUA). There’s just one problem with that hypothesis. The NHTSA is having trouble finding any electrical gremlins with Toyota vehicles.
To assist in their ghostbusting search, NHTSA recruited the help of the most august body of scienctif knowledge, the National Academy of Sciences. The NHTSA needs help- “We have not actually been able to find a defect of electronic-throttle-control systems in Toyota vehicles” said Dan Smith of the NHTSA to the assembled panel of scientists. As far as Mr Smith can see, there’s only two causes of SUA, floor-mat entrapment of the pedals (which we already knew about) and accelerator pedal which are slow to idle (which was fixed by the “shim”). Mr Smith didn’t rule out electrical gremlins (smart move) and said that the investigations are ongoing (until people forget they were barking up the wrong tree, though he may not have said that part). To add further insult to Toyota’s injury, Roger Saul, who also works for the NHTSA, told the panel of the National Academy of Sciences that since Toyota’s first recall in October 2009, they received complaints of 64 crashes involving 78 deaths. How many could possibly be Toyota’s fault? “Regulators have been able to verify that only one of those incidents was caused by a vehicle defect,” Saul said.
All I can tell you about that is this...
When my design team recieves a customer complaint of some anomalous behavior of our product we take it VERY SERIOUSLY. It may take hours upon hours to find a way to replicate the problem/failure and sometimes even that technique proves impossible. So the team ends up going back over the code with a "fine tooth comb".
There have been a few rare times, occasions, when the anomalous behavior turned out to be the result of a previously undiscovered flaw in the core processor's instruction execution sequence.
Add "c" to your list.
c) a problem with such unique and rare circumstances that it is a practical impossibility to replicate, and "prove", in a timely fashion.
Using your logic I guess you're saying they've been hiding their "real" problems for years and I guess you'd say they are worse than Toyota for hiding it all these years - am I right? Hell they never even mentioned it publically. That must really tick you off eh? What are you driving anyway? Must be from the most morally upstanding auto company to ever put out a car - which company would that be?
Appendix "H" in the Sussman and Pollard report is full of data such as this reference indicates: Rogers, S.B., W. W. Wierwille" "The Occurrence of Accelerator and Brake Pedal Actuation Errors During Simulatcd Driving," Vchiclc Analysis and Simulation Laboratory, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988
I'm sorry to say we do know what causes SUA. What we can't fully explain is why when a Foreign car company gets the same complaints as a US car company many US citizens will use or require a higher standard to judge them by. Anyway you slice it its plain old garden variety hypocracy with a side of racism.
It reminds me of a cartoon I once saw, possibly done by Gary Larson, which shows a couple of scientists in front of a blackboard covered in scientific algorithms and formulae, with a space in the middle filled in with the words "and then a miracle happens".
Agreed.
In fact, I'm pretty sure one could remove the ECM and engine from a car, and the brakes would still function, albeit in a less effective mode due to the loss of vacuum assist from the engine.
SO, its rather difficult to link all these systems together underneath the umbrella of an electronic "Big Brother" that has gone off the "deep-end"....
So right now, as of today, my thinking is that what has happened, in some cases, is an actual UA event coupled with serious driver error in responding to the emergency.
Frankly, the sheer number of potential UA events (millions of cars and billions of miles driven) almost guarantees it's occurrance.
But, in the end, its the evidence that counts....not odds.
In simple terms put the HSD firmware instruction execution sequence in a "deadly embrace", in a tight loop executing ONLY the cruise control "accelerate" mode/sequence and the Sikes incident would be most exactingly replicated.
The interesting aspect of this theory is that doing the exact same thing, CC accelerate "deadly embrace" in the Saylor and Smith(***) incidents and replication there is also exacting. Except in those cases the brakes still worked. But in Saylor's case the brakes were not powerful enough to overcome the drive HP and the car's forward momentum/inertia, especially once the brakes faded from such continuous HARD use.
Look at the current recall for the 2010 Prius' loss of braking as evidence of what this sort of firmware flaw, ADMITTED firmware flaw can result in. The way I read the recall at the initial onset of the incident the regen braking is being used as the sole braking resource. Something causes the ABS to activate briefly which would normally result in a sudden and complete switch to frictional braking ONLY. But what actually happens is that while regen braking stops frictional braking does not immediately (or at all?) come on line.
Frightening experience that.
*** Smith...I think that's the southern lady's name that testified before congress about her SUA incident and even stated that the cruise control light came on at the beginning of her episode......
Toyota stopped the Prius at WOT on the video they published.
Having driven a Prius quite a bit, I feel confident that if my throttle went wide open, I could stop the car any one of three different ways...given that I had a little time to do that.
Doesn't matter if the shifter is in neutral, the PB is being pressed, or the brake pedal, if the computer isn't "polling" those functional inputs then it ain't gonna happen.
The flaw may not even be the result of a firmware programmer oversight or mistake, it may even be the result of an as yet undiscovered core processor hardware flaw, errata. That's a real problem with Toyota's use of NipponDenso as a resource for base computer hardware, no WIDE public use of the products to help discover "buried" hardware design flaws.
"...first of all, brakes CAN stop the car, regardless.."
On what authority, source, do you make that statement..??
I certainly can't, wouldn't say for sure either way. But look at the brake rotor and brake pad pictures post crash in the Saylor incident and it becomes pretty clear that Saylor was exerting a lot of effort on the brakes in an attempt to bring the car to a stop. So I suspect, strongly so, that the brakes are not designed to be robust enough to overcome the engine DRIVE at WOT and the car's inertia/momentum. In that circumstance how long would it be before the brakes have faded to the point of being mostly ineffective..?
It appears that Mrs. Smith was only able to bring her car to a full stop as a result of driving over onto the grassy median where the front wheels did not have enough traction to overcome the rear wheel brakes, braking.
Plus these were FWD vehicles, WOT engine DRIVE on the PRIMARY braking resource.
"Toyota stopped the Prius at WOT on the video they published."
No, holding the gas pedal fully depressed does not result in WOT in the Prius if the brakes are applied simultaneously. Absent a firmware instruction execution flaw the Prius will not go WOT in that circumstance.