The Current State of the US Auto Market

berri

I think Sep/Oct sales figures can be misleading. There tend to be quirks like end of the year and model change over issues, varying dealer inventory, etc. There are also apparent philosophical differences between Detroit and the Asians. I think Detroit and it's dealer's like the promotional aspect of end of the model year sales, while the Asians tend to keep a very tight control over that preferring to have cleared all current models from the lot and de-emphasize them as the next year ones arrive. I think what I'd be watching on this is if more expensive trucks and lux vehicles stay strong while things like Cruze or Camry cool off. That would indicate to me that consumer sentiment and/or middle class economics may be cooling off. I think following leasing can be a bit tricky because you are dealing with all sorts of things from rental cars to company vehicles, but that data aspect isn't always broken out to the public.

stickguy

since you asked for a different search engine, here you go. Plus it does not track you and push "suggestions".

https://duckduckgo.com/

andre1969

My uncle briefly had a 4wd pickup. It was a used 1994 GMC Sierra extended cab, 3/4 ton truck, with a 6.5 Turbo Diesel. For whatever reason, he decided to drive it in my grandmother's back yard one winter day when the ground thawed a bit, and got that sucker stuck. It sunk down to the frame rails and he had to have his 4wd toy towed out.

He only had that thing about 8 months. It kept having to go back to the dealer because it was constantly having electrical problems, failing sensors, etc. He finally got fed up and traded it on a new '97 Silverado, 2WD, with a 4.3 V-6.

He got that one stuck in my back yard a few years ago, when he tried to drive back there. He had a bunch of deer parts (okay, so we're rednecks...) that he wanted to throw back in the woods, and tried to drive back there, and promptly got stuck. I ended up pulling him out with my '85 Silverado and a very big, thick chain.

And, I'll confess that I got the Silverado stuck back there, about 10 years ago. We had a tree come down during a hurricane. Chopped it up, and I loaded some of it up in the truck to dump it back there, and ended up getting it stuck. Took about an hour, and a couple of boards, but I managed to get it out. It was muddy as hell afterwards.

None of us has really done much towing, but I had a great-uncle who had a Terry trailer that was about 30 feet long. When I was a little kid, he just used a '74 Impala with a 400. Then he used a 1980 Chevy 3/4 ton pickup with a 350, but it was just RWD. I don't think they really went to any off-the-beaten-path places, though, where you'd need 4wd. My grandparents did a lot of camping, but they mainly used a '76 GMC crew cab and a slide in truck camper.

stever

DuckDuck is my main one but I must have ads blocked, since I see few ads on the big G either. DDG has a few "sponsored" links at the top of the search results, but they seem a lot less evil than the others.

Andre, I got my Outback stuck a couple of winters ago. New tires has fixed that.

And there was a sales quirk in September - Labor Day got counted in August sales. Auto sales fall in September (LA Times)

Ford and Chrysler reported gains, but both increased incentives while GM eased off on theirs. (KUSI)

dieselone

"My uncle briefly had a 4wd pickup. It was a used 1994 GMC Sierra extended cab, 3/4 ton truck, with a 6.5 Turbo Diesel. For whatever reason, he decided to drive it in my grandmother's back yard one winter day when the ground thawed a bit, and got that sucker stuck. It sunk down to the frame rails and he had to have his 4wd toy towed out. "

Well they say the difference between 2wd and 4wd is with 4wd you just get stuck a little further off road;)

circlew

HYUNDAI ADDS NEW DIMENSION TO ASSURANCE PROGRAM WITH NEW FEDERAL EMPLOYEE PAYMENT DEFERRAL PLAN

COSTA MESA, Calif., October 1, 2013 – Hyundai Motor America today announces the latest addition to its Assurance program with the launch of a new payment deferral program aimed at helping federal employees furloughed during the government shutdown. Under the plan, Hyundai will defer all auto loan and lease payments during the shutdown for current Hyundai owners who are furloughed.

"We recognize the impact on family budgets that the furlough will drive," said John Krafcik, president and CEO of Hyundai Motor America. "Like we did almost four years ago when we launched Hyundai Assurance, this is our way of saying 'We've got your back' during this uncertain time."

Current owners in the Hyundai family will be provided relief from payments for as long as they are out of work. Furloughed employees who wish to buy a car in October will be offered a 90-day payment deferral.

It is estimated that more than 800,000 workers will not get paid during the shutdown. Like the original Hyundai Assurance job loss protection program, the federal employee payment deferral plan is aimed at helping workers at a time when they most need it.

lemko

Is that the corner of your Fifth Avenue at the bottom of the picture?

lemko

That's really cool of Hyundai. I assume no interest will accrue during the deferral?

circlew

Top 10 New Registrations of Cars in Fleets in 2011

% Lease vs. Total Sales

1. Chevy Impala - 72.8
2. Ford Fusion - 34.8
3. Chevy Malibu - 39.4
4. Ford Crown Vic - 94.6
5. Nissan Altima - 26.4
6. Foed Focus - 31.6
7. Toyota Corolla - 19.4
8. Chevy Cruze - 19.3
9. Toyota Camry - 14.8
10. Dodge Avenger - 66.2

ohenryx

No offense was intended, and if offense was taken, I apologize for it.

I thought your original post was slightly condescending, so I went over the top, emphasizing that aspect, with the intent of being humorous, not offensive.

circlew

"I assume no interest will accrue during the deferral? "

I assume the payment deferral includes any interest for each payment period. A car purchased by a furloughed employee in October will be offered a 90-day deferral but I am sure the interest accrues for that period.

Ain't that real American of Hyundai?

Nice gimmick to add sales! Like GM did with free 2 year maintenance (worth probably $100 for 4 oil changes.)

stever

Hyundai is counting on the shutdown being short.

ohenryx

I agree that this is mostly a gimmick, but it might actually help some people, so it is a “good gimmick”.

The GM free maintenance was less helpful, in my opinion, as it really only amounted to 2 oil changes, not even the 4 that you mentioned.

Under the heading of “good gimmicks”, I am very appreciative of Subaru and their support of the ASPCA.

imidazol97

Mostly a PR gimmick. Predicated on the fact that in the past partial slowdown the overpaid/over-pensioned government workers were paid for the days they did NOT work during the slowdown. So they'll be flush with pay when the negotiations actually occur.

AND I don't notice Hyundai offering loans with payments deferred until the millions of workers out of work can get jobs during this downturn since 2009. They are the ones really in trouble and needing help in this economy--not the government workers flush with cash and job security.

Hyundai are you really wanting to help?

robr2

Actually, Hyundai started the job assurance program back in January of 2009 where they agreed to take cars back from people who lost their jobs and couldn't make payments.

They ended the program in 2011 after taking back 350 cars. At that time, it was no longer drawing in potential customers.

fintail

Seeing all of the military and developmental aid the US has given SK over the past 60 or so years, maybe it is a subdued gesture along with more look-at-me Hyundai marketing.

They had a bad times deferral program of sorts, too. Like with their warranty, it was much more on paper than in reality.

crkyolfrt

Ok, fair enough, accepted..although I have no idea where you got any level of condescension in my original post.

I notice from a different post that you live in dry, flat Houston..with lots of pavement and concrete. Is it really a stretch to imagine that in numerous other parts of nation, there could be other traction requirements for many p/u owners?
The ratio of 2WD to 4x4 at my local dealers, but not just here, even other posters too have indicated that in their area also, there are resale value hits on 2WD p/ups.

So not sure why you took such exception in the first place. I suspect it might have stemmed more about you being a Ford fan and me recently voicing my boycott of them many years ago, than defending 2WD pick up trucks.

imidazol97

>2009 where they agreed to take cars back from people who lost their jobs and couldn't make payments.

They took the cars away too? The people needed the cars to look for a job and get to their doctor and go to school to pick up their kids when sick!

uplanderguy

What are the numbers after the model? Something's not making sense here.

andre1969

Is that the corner of your Fifth Avenue at the bottom of the picture?

Yup, thar she blows! I took that pic during the Mopar Nationals in Carlisle this past July. Thankfully, nothing blew this time. Back in 2011 though, the power steering pump did spring a leak...

tlong

Mostly a PR gimmick.

I'm sure if GM or Ford had done it, it would have been a brilliant and patriotic move!

circlew

Percentage. The % of fleet sales for each.

circlew

"I'm sure if GM or Ford had done it, it would have been a brilliant and patriotic move!"

Excellent! Balance!

uplanderguy

"Percentage. The % of fleet sales for each."

Then wouldn't the Number One vehicle have the highest percentage? The percentages are all over the place, and the Crown Vic had a higher fleet percentage than the Impala, although is lower on the list.

uplanderguy

When I think of lack of balance by a magazine article, I'm always reminded of C&D and MT goofing on a then-current GM's push-pull interior light switch and the APV van's high-mounted corner stop lights, then praising the identical (and I mean identical) features on imports only a little bit later--the taillights being Volvo wagon's.

Speaking of Volvo's, I always laughed when my friend (currently a M-B driver) goofed on Volvo headlights looking like 'airport landing lights'.

uplanderguy

I'm skeptical of any sales stunt like Hyundai's, and that includes something like "free scheduled maintenance", no matter who does it.

What would be 'excellent' is if someone knocked Hyundai for that simply as they would have a domestic, but I know how that works here.

circlew

Yeah, the data wasn't organized high to low. There were 25 vehicles and these were the higher volume candidates.

The Impala has the highest %. (for example, the Sonata sales were high but the fleet percentage was 12% vs Malibu which was slightly lower sales but 39.4% fleet).

The table had far too much data for this posting format. I'll pst truck data later.

circlew

"What would be 'excellent' is if someone knocked Hyundai for that simply as they would have a domestic, but I know how that works here.

I guess me saying "Gimmick" in reference to the Hyundai move was completely missed by you?"

uplanderguy

The Crown Vic shows a higher percentage of fleet sales than the Impala.

andre1969

I wonder if the rankings are done by total fleet sales, even though the number shown is the percentage? 2011 was the Crown Vic's last year, and I doubt that they made very many. I thought it was supposed to be fleet-only, but I guess a few of them still fell into private hands.

While the Impala's percentage isn't quite as bad, they still made a lot more of them, in general, so its fleet sales were probably higher.

For example, if the Impala sold 200,000 units, then 144,000 went into fleets. But if the Crown Vic only sold 100,000, then 94,000 went into fleets.

imidazol97

Seattle Tesla caught fire after supposedly hitting road debris.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/APNewsBreak-Tesla-says-car-fire-began-in-b- attery-4863667.php

dieselone

I think by 2011 the Crown Vic was basically fleet only.

circlew

Yeah, the data is for volume (units) of new cars which were registered for fleets in 2011..

129,943 out of 178,585 Impalas were registered for fleets while 69,499 out of 73,362 Crown Vic's were registered for fleets. The data was organized by # of vehicles but I posted only the % of fleet to total sales. So the top fllet numbers were listed in order by volume, which I did not include.

uplanderguy

I believe you are right, andre, although that wasn't how the information was presented here.

circlew

Volume registered to fleet, % in 2011:

1. Ford F-Series = 146,864 (26.1% Fleet)
2. Chevy Silverado = 82,241 (19.7% Fleet)
3. Dodge Caravan = 79,971 (66.5% Fleet)
4. Ford Econoline = 78,509 (75.7% Fleet)
5. Ford Escape = 70,960 (28.8% Fleet)
6. Chevy Express = 56,770 (72.3% Fleet)
7. Dodge Ram = 43,119 (18.2% Fleet)
8. Chevy Tahoe = 33,524 (39% Fleet)
9. Chevy Traverse = 33,355 (31.4% Fleet)
10. Ford Explorer = 31,630 (23.5% Fleet)

lemko

Speaking of Carlisle, are you going to the Fall Carlisle show this weekend?

lemko

I'm thinking a last generation Impala could be picked up for a song. It might make a good candidate to replace my aging Grand Marquis. Any car I see used as a police car or a taxi is a good purchase as fragile cars aren't pressed into such demanding service. I see plenty of Impalas used as PPD cars.

busiris

"I'm skeptical of any sales stunt like Hyundai's, and that includes something like "free scheduled maintenance", no matter who does it. "

I don't think there's such a thing as "free maintenance", scheduled or otherwise.
Somewhere, somehow, someone is paying for that "free" service.

tlong

The Crown Vic shows a higher percentage of fleet sales than the Impala.

I interpreted the list to be ordered by total numbers of fleet sales. So the first car on the list was the highest *absolute volume* of fleet vehicles.

The percentage would be as a fraction of total sales for that vehicle, so wouldn't necessarily be in the same order. One vehicle might be almost all fleet, yet still sell a fairly small number of vehicles, so not be at the top of the list.

andre1969

Yep, planning on hitting Carlisle this weekend. And AFAIK, we're meeting at the usual place. Unfortunately, with the furlough, I'll only be window shopping...although that's all I usually do, anyway!

ateixeira

For the new gen Impala, fleet sales as a % will plummet, watch.

CR has been gushing and gushing about how great it is - they liked it better than the Acura RLX.

Anyone interested may want to get one now for that $27k or so price before they increase prices, perhaps intentionally, to discourage fleet sales.

circlew

Where would the US be without fleet sales?

Percent of Total Fleet Registrations
Mfg Lt. Vehicles
GM 28%
FOR 29%
CHR 17%
TOY 6%
Other 5%
NIS 7%
KIA 2%
HYU 3%
HON 1%
VW 2%

ateixeira

20% fleet sales in the home market is about industry standard. They're not too far off that mark.

I'd be curious to see what % are fleet sales for Hyundai/Kia in Korea, and for Toyota/Honda in Japan. Probably up there, too.

lemko

Toyota probably sells a lot of Crown models as taxis and police cars in its home market and Asia.

fintail

Not to mention if you rent with Sixt in Germany, there's a good chance it will be a BMW.

I am somewhat shocked about the low claimed Hyunkia fleet numbers here, given the amount of rentals I see. Albeit, rental fleets can be a local phenomenon.

ateixeira

I'm sure a lot of big sedans are used as livery vehicles ... in every market, come to think of it.

andres3

Looked okay. Hood closed. No driver. No rust. Must have run out of gas.
---------------------------------------

ALMOST HILARIOUS how biased you are to provide a favorable explanation for Chrysler.

The truth is, based on real-world experience, that if they ran out of gas, it was probably because they had the same leaky gas tank O-rings I did on my Neon and therefore running out of gas was still Chrysler's fault (lemon).

Not to mention, it could be an electrical breakdown, and probably any number of 100 other more likely things besides running out of gas considering it was a Neon.

andres3

The last taxi I was in was a Prius :P

Also, how many miles do Police take the cars up to before getting rid of them? they don't need much durability if they get rid of them quickly (100 or 150K miles?)

uplanderguy

Last car I saw along the road was a Neon-era Camry.

Well, I didn't see ten in one day as that guy on the old GM forum claimed he saw, just in Chevys, broken down on the way to work one day! LOL

crkyolfrt

If their intent was to discourage fleet sales, perhaps a more prudent action would be to not discount them. This would increase profits from those that do anti up the higher price.