The Current State of the US Auto Market

imidazol97

> For me, none of those incidents mentioned above would have had any impact on my decision to purchase any of the vehicles in question, nor keep one if I already had one.

I'm just being descriptive and analytical of how things have transpired here in the past. Some of us realize that it's not the recall necessarily, it's how the problem is handled, or not handled, by the company that's important. The dealer also plays a great part in that handling and in how the owner perceives the brand. That's been the case with my Buicks through the years.

Others have realized that the hard-to-pin-down reliability is historical in nature and has absolutely nothing to do with the ATS, Accord Sport, Civic, Nissan Altima, VW Jetta/Passat and the Audi cousin that you buy today.

Most companies have improved the vehicle when they were able to make changeovers on them in the past decade.

As for bragging rights to being biggest, bestest, mostest,...I'm glad to hear that toyota is selling more cars worldwide than ever before or some similar statement on early news radio this morning. With the bigger size, comes bigger problems from the bean counter cost cutting and the typical things that go wrong are worse the bigger the company is.

I'm seeing more and more posts in other discussions about various brands that used to have an infallible but potentially undeserved, rating where people are swearing they'll never buy another of that brand. In 2003 I was mocked by a few when I said I was not impressed with my test drives of some brands while shopping for my new 03. Some of the problem then came to be truths.

Those car companies have regressed to the mean. They have joined the club in the public opinion value rating, which actually means little.

busiris

"Some of us realize that it's not the recall necessarily, it's how the problem is handled, or not handled, by the company that's important. The dealer also plays a great part in that handling and in how the owner perceives the brand. That's been the case with my Buicks through the years. "

I totally agree.

A consistently great dealership "experience" will often outshine a mediocre brand/make "experience".

As an added note, lots of folks love to take potshots at the guy sitting on the top, regardless who he happens to be at the time. As a group, the media excels at that tactic.

stever

"plastic" teeth on the timing chain gear

I thought that was a Ford issue; premature failure of "nylon" gears.

uplanderguy

I believe the high number of recalls for the first year or two of the X-car, and the attending publicity, contributed to a sales decline. They had sold like crazy at first. I know someone who waited seven months for one after ordering it.

I have to believe that eventually, cars that are recalled a lot end up with negative equity in the mind of the public.

I did think it odd that there was far more discussion here on the Sonic brake pad recall than on a 350-K vehicle recall that can't be fixed in a few months' time. You can call that what you like, guys, but I think truly disinterested people know what that really is.

I genuinely have to just shake my head when the only call to stop posting recall info is when the Asian makers have had multiple, large recalls for quite a while now. When GM recalls were posted here, I didn't ask for a 'truce'.

Sometimes, stuff just needs to be called what it is.

xrunner2

>>>>>I thought that was a Ford issue; premature failure of "nylon" gears.>>>>>>

Ford might have had that issue also. Had the Pontiac towed to my garage. Did not know what failed. A relative with good diagnostic skills came over and found the problem. I did the repair myself, found the faulty gear, bought a new all-metal gear and new chain, water pump, etc, (all GM new parts) and put it all back together.

andres3

For what it's worth, I could probably easily list a dozen reasons why I hate Chrysler.

However, not one of them would be "recalls."

A few recalls would have done my Dodge some good.

Here's one I'd recommend "Recall all vehicles built by Chrysler from the '90's."

andres3

Agree 100% that the dealer/manufacturer experience matters at least as much (or at least almost as much) as the actual cars reliability performance.

If Chrysler had ponied up to pay for the early failures of the AC, head gaskets, and automatic transmission, then I would not have Chrysler on the forever "no consideration whatsoever" list. The car would have still been a lemon, but I would consider their products. They'd likely be last on my list, but at least they'd be on the list.

As it stands, I could bring myself to test drive an ATS, but I couldn't bring myself to waste time driving a Chrysler in a test drive, after all, it's likely to break down during the test drive (odds in favor), and REALLY waste a lot of my time!

circlew

I actually agree with you. GM has had tiny recalls compared to the gigantic recalls from the Asian automakers in the last 2 years.

ateixeira

Let's include all brands, all nationalities, and call the thread:

Total Recall

busiris

"I have to believe that eventually, cars that are recalled a lot end up with negative equity in the mind of the public. "

No disagreement there, but I'm not too sure about the longevity of the average car buyer's memory.

Toyota certainly had a horrible episode in both PR and recall experiences relating to UA possibilities, but the company seems to be doing pretty well today. And, that wasn't a lifetime back, but just a very few short time ago.

I don't think there's much long-term memory for auto recalls overall....

stever

Ignore the recall, and get ready for the ride of your life.

andres3

I personally don't mind seeing the posting of recalls.

I think they don't mean much individually, but if there is a trend, that can begin to build a perception of lack of initial quality.

Of course, most here are more concerned with long term reliability than initial quality.

ateixeira

The U.S. government has booked a loss of $9.7 billion on the nearly $50 billion bailout of U.S. automaker General Motors

But a lot of GM haters said that the whole bailout was money in the trash. So they are already 80% wrong.

Meanwhile, GM is alive, earning $2.64 billion in Q3 alone.

I'm not including 1st tier suppliers, 2nd tier suppliers, your monkey's uncle, dealers, yadda yadda yadda.

I was then, and remain, pro-bailout. That $2.64 billion would have gone to China.

ateixeira

but the company seems to be doing pretty well today

Yep...

Toyota Motor Corp. today raised its annual profit forecast, closing in on records set before the Lehman crisis as the weaker yen and growing sales in a healthy U.S. market sharply boost earnings

Read more: http://www.autonews.com/article/20131106/COPY01/311069963/toyota-closes-in-on-re- cord-profit-with-healthy-u.s.-sales#ixzz2jtUS453z
Follow us: @Automotive_News on Twitter | AutoNews on Facebook

andres3

To be fair, the government still has a lot of shares to lose money on so the 9.7 billion dollar loss figure isn't complete yet.

How many investors do you know that will invest 50 only to get 40 back anyway? 50,000 to get 40,000 back? 50 billion to get 40 billion back?

What about interest on the time value of that money since 2008?

What about lost opportunity costs? And I don't want to hear bull about the gov't not being able to invest in private enterprises like Apple. They can, do, and did. They invest in enterprises that buy votes, friends, family, and screw the rest of us.

jpp75

I know over 10 people who have Odysseys and have never experienced this.

Recalls now are just CYA, they aren't measures of quality.

Mr_Shiftright

Recalls don't generally affect my buying habits, but bad reviews from users do.

jpp75

I do read reviews, but depends on the source. A well informed consumer knows that recalls happen all the time, regardless of manufacturer.

It's been said here before, there aren't many bad cars out there these days. They'll all last over 100k, so drive several in your category/price range and buy what you like.

With a few exceptions it's hard to be disappointed these days.

tlong

Toyota certainly had a horrible episode in both PR and recall experiences relating to UA possibilities, but the company seems to be doing pretty well today. And, that wasn't a lifetime back, but just a very few short time ago.

Since the lifecycle of autos is relatively slow (as compared to consumer electronics, for example), it seems to both take much longer to earn a bad reputation, and much longer to gain that good reputation back. A 2-3 year blip in problems doesn't seem to have a huge negative effect if the company's reputation has been generally good.

You take GM, it was 20-30 years of bad vehicles that got it's reputation severly tarnished, along with the BK and bailout, of course. Same with Chrysler.

On the other hand, it took 10-20 years of good vehicles to build the reputations of Honda and Toyota to where they are today. And it's my opinion that both have seen their prime and are declining (not significantly, but slowly), yet their reputations are still good and will take some time to suffer.

And then there's Hyundai, who was awful in the beginning but their reputation is improving, even though their cars have been better for probably a decade or so. Yet they still don't have the reputation of Toy or Hon.

It's a slow game, which is why it is so important to maintain the quality of vehicles. If you lose it, it's going to take a long, long time to get it back.

tlong

But a lot of GM haters said that the whole bailout was money in the trash. So they are already 80% wrong.

Well, that's an interesting way of looking at it.

By this logic, if 10x more was loaned and 10x more was lost, then it would still be 80% wrong even though the amount lost would be 10x higher.

Not sure that's a good accounting practice.

anythngbutgm

"Meanwhile, GM is alive, earning $2.64 billion in Q3 alone."

Awesome, so technically they have 7 billion more to go... lol, ya right! It'll never get paid back, the loss is on the government share...

Seriously, they could probably erase some of the bad Rep they have if they contributed to the loss and made up the difference one day...

uplanderguy

You know over ten people with Odysseys? I know one.

I don't know ten people who own the same model of any automobile currently.

You obviously know a lot more people than I do.

dieselone

I know 6 without even thinking. 4 friends, my sister, and my sister-in-law all have late model Odysseys and they all love them.

Ironically, my sister has an Odyssey, her husband just bought a new Tundra last week. My wife's sister has a Odyssey, and her husband has a Tundra. Guess next time I see them, I'll have to let them take real truck for a spin;)

andre1969

just remember people...

tlong

Awesome, so technically they have 7 billion more to go... lol, ya right! It'll never get paid back, the loss is on the government share...

I wonder what their profit/loss would be without the special tax breaks that they received as part of the BK/bailout? I ask because I honestly don't know.

tlong

Well I don't get the minivan dislike.

Unless you are going off road or towing, a minivan does the same thing with more room, smoother ride, better handling, and better mileage. Somehow people don't think sliding doors are "manly". IMHO they just have image issues....

andres3

Well, a Q5 or X3 might out handle the Odyssey.

But in general, I'm with you, I don't get the SUV crazy. Most SUV's are not taken off road and hence the ground clearance is not a benefit; other than for "view of the road from the driver's position."

busiris

For many folks, bigger is better, so for them large SUV type vehicles are synonymous with higher safety. One could easily make the argument than many buying these tanks are far less safer, due to their inexperience driving and handling such a size-able land yacht.

circlew

One could try a CX-9. Will out-handle almost every SUV in it's class and some cars as well.

xrunner2

>>>>>>I know over 10 people who have Odysseys and have never experienced this.>>>>>>

I have a 2000 Ody which I bought new and it has been an incredible vehicle in many respects. Quality, reliability, handling (for a mini van), ride, fit, finish, paint, interior, engine, transmission, steering, brakes, gas MPG, body and trim integrity, etc. I did have an issue with the sliding door (driver side) and it was covered under warranty. This is one of the top vehicles that I have owned in my driving life. I will need an excuse of some kind to trade this vehicle in on a new mini van of Honda or some other brand, whichever I deem as the best value and of highest quality and reliability.

xrunner2

>>>>>>I don't know ten people who own the same model of any automobile currently. >>>>>>>

It is most interesting to hear from people who have owned 2 or 3 vehicles of different manufacturers concurrently. Such as owing a Chevrolet, Honda and Nissan at the same time for many years. Then, let them give their recounts and experiences. Quite a bit different from say a person who may be a senior citizen who only bought and owned Fords all of his driving lifetime. The Ford buyer/owner is like a mushroom. In the dark all of his lifetime. Could also be like GM "only" fans and apologists.

xrunner2

>>>>>Well I don't get the minivan cdislike.

Unless you are going off road or towing, a minivan does the same thing with more room, smoother ride, better handling, and better mileage. Somehow people don't think sliding doors are "manly". IMHO they just have image issues.... >>>>>>

Exactly. People afraid of owning/driving a min-van have some kind of deficiency or character flaw. Why anyone would care about what they are seen driving in speaks to that deficiency. Why would someone be so concerned about the opinions of others as to what they drive.

I have owned a Suburban in the past and now a Honda Odyssey, and STRICTLY, for their functionality and hauling capacities. Over the years I have found it amusing when I see people outside of big box stores trying to stuff their LARGE purchases into their FASHIONABLY smaller suvs or small box pickup trucks while I easily have loaded my large boxes and other into my Suburban or Ody.

suydam

I've never owned 2 of the same manufacturer, and rarely 2 sequentially either. Our duos have been
Dodge Caravan and Ford Fiesta
Toyota minivan and Mazda 323
Subaru Forester and Honda Civic
Nissan Maxima and Mazda 6 wagon
Honda Accord and Pontiac Vibe

Some overlap of course because we never bought 2 at the same time.

fintail

Should be "Condoms Prevent CUVs"

I know a guy who has a "Condom On Board" triangle hanging sign on his Subaru ski wagon.

uplanderguy

The one person I know with an Odyssey has a 2005, prior to this big recall I believe. His tranny bit the dust prior to 70K and Honda's 'goodwill offer' was $1,800. He said he told the Service Manager, "I thought I bought a Honda, not a Kia!".

I'd be surprised if the OP knew ten people with an Odyssey covered by this recall, since he said 'none have experienced this problem'. Just sayin'.

suydam

Since it's one of the best-selling and most highly rated minivans why wouldn't anyone know more than one owner of one? There aren't as many minivans around as there used to be, but the Ody has a good share of that market. One of our friends just gave their '99 Ody to a younger member of the family. Still chugging along just fine.

uplanderguy

I currently own three Chevrolets--all reliable vehicles--and one Mopar, which has been a good car as well (bought used). I drive 'em all though. I will say I have not driven a BMW. A friend had an older Infiniti--the one that looked just like a Maxima. He got good service out of it before it was rusted out fatally, but it never did a thing for me when I rode in it. Seemed like a stretched-out small car, instead of a truly luxurious car. Same with another friend's Lexus SC300. I wasn't very impressed at that price class. I had a friend who refused to ride in the back seat of my Cavalier coupe to a swap meet five hours away. He said he wouldn't have a problem in my friend's Lexus. I showed both how the Cavalier coupe actually had more rear-seat legroom than the SC300. To me, the greatest luxury is space.;)

uplanderguy

The original post didn't say 'more than one', it said '..ten'.

Mr_Shiftright

Still all anecdotal and a mighty slim database. It proves nothing at all. Owner neglect, 4 owner vehicles, towing, exaggeration of the issue---who knows what those ten people are really about?

If you asked any other automaker if they'd like their vans to sell as well as an Odyssey, you'd have a lot of takers.

stever

Hm, my brother may be a bit better than I am about car maintenance but maybe not. The right rear tail light was burned out for at least two years on his van that I know of. He got rid of his Odyssey a year ago.

Oh yeah, he got another Odyssey.

Other than the new one getting rear-ended last summer, neither Odyssey spent any time in the shop. Just like most cars these days.

anythngbutgm

Quite a few on the used market with some impressive mileages on them...

http://www.cars.com/for-sale/used/honda/odyssey/_/N-ma9Zfg1ZgrqZm5d?feedSegId=28- - 705&rpp=50&stkTypId=28881&PMmt=1-1-0&zc=02356&rd=100000&mdId=21734&mkId=20017&se- - archSource=SORT&crSrtFlds=stkTypId-feedSegId-mkId-mdId&pgId=2102&sf1Nm=miles&sf1- - Dir=DESC&sf2Nm=price&sf2Dir=DESC

I've known plenty of people with Odysseys over the years and I usually make it a point to ask how they have been for them. I asked because back when the whole Honda V6 tranny things was going on, I was a proud owner of a 2003 Acura MDX which was also subject to transmission problems.

Needless to say, none of the people I talked with had any sort of issues with their transmissions and problems were usually equated to abuse from the kids, lol or the occasional electric doors not working. I do recall one person having a torque converter replaced but I don't remember the mileage on hers...

My MDX? Rock solid for about 120 thousand miles before we sold it to buy my wife's current LLBean edition Outback. Never ever let me down and had very few unexpected repairs or recalls. I was a stickler for maintainance tho, religiously changing the transmission fluid every 30k... But other than not-so-great gas mileage and the requirement for premium fuel around the time when prices were bumping 4 bucks a gallon, I would probably still have it in my fleet...

andre1969

Well I don't get the minivan dislike.

Ooh, I didn't realize that actually made it through...when I tried to post it yesterday my browser timed out on me.

Anyway, I don't have anything against minivans; I just thought it was funny. :P

In the past, my biggest beef with minivans was having to sit so close to the front of the vehicle, so upright with not that much legroom, whereas a truck-based SUV usually had a more comfortable driving position. For my body, at least.

But, that's probably not true anymore, as minivans have evolved and improved.

andre1969

This was probably about 7 or 8 years ago, but the owner of the local transmission shop, who did my uncle's '97 Silverado and my '79 Newport, said that the three most common transmission replacements he did were GM trucks (the 4L60E used in the half-ton full-sizers, Yukons, Suburbans, etc), Ford Explorers, and Chrysler minivans. No mention of anything foreign.

But, to be fair, these were all very common vehicles, so I don't know if they were necessarily having higher failure rates, or simply seeing a lot because there were a lot built.

uplanderguy

You're missing the point of the post. Does anybody really know 'more than ten' people who own the same model of vehicle? And we were discussing particular models of Odyssey that fall under the recall. The original poster was the guy talking about 'ten', not me. I know one, with a complete trans failure. No towing. Typical young family. Vehicle bought new.

I still think a recall of 350K vehicles is a large recall....and I still have never seen a recall for sudden stopping. That was the original post and you're right, there's been quite a bit of 'drift' from that original post.

dieselone

"This was probably about 7 or 8 years ago, but the owner of the local transmission shop, who did my uncle's '97 Silverado and my '79 Newport, said that the three most common transmission replacements he did were GM trucks (the 4L60E used in the half-ton full-sizers, Yukons, Suburbans, etc),"

That's pretty much what the trans guy told me when I had to have the trans rebuilt in my Suburban. While no question, there are a lot of them on the road, the fact is I probably know 10 people who've had a GM 4l60e trans die long before 100k miles. I know one guy who's had his rebuilt 4 times to make it to 200k.

I have a boat and a camper, so I socialize with a bunch of people with trucks/SUVS.

andre1969

Now that I think about it, when my uncle's '97 Silverado went in the shop, they had a similar-vintage Suburban in there, for the same issue.

That whole 4L60E stigma is what tended to keep the GM trucks off of my shopping list. I know the nicer trucks started going to a 6-speed automatic at some point, but I was looking for a more basic, stripper work truck, which would have most likely meant a 4.3 V6 or 4.8 V8 in a GM. And as late as it was in the model year when I bought my Ram, there wasn't a whole lot to choose from in general.

I've heard that the 4L60E can be traced back to the old THM350 transmission, which I think GM debuted in 1968. Shame, because that was a good transmission.

xrunner2

>>>>>>>>If you asked any other automaker if they'd like their vans to sell as well as an Odyssey, you'd have a lot of takers.>>>>>>>

GM would be one of those. GM's minivans were poorly designed and executed. From the dustbuster nosed era to their last bottle-nosed models. GM was incapable of making a competitive minivan and had to leave that segment of the market.

dieselone

"I've heard that the 4L60E can be traced back to the old THM350 transmission, which I think GM debuted in 1968. Shame, because that was a good transmission."

The owner of the trans shop which rebuilt my transmission said the early 4l60e transmissions were good, but GM started using lighter parts to reduce weight and increase FE in 97 or so and I guess changed them a bit in '99-00 too. According to him, with the lighter parts, heat became a bigger issue and the sun gear shell was a major weak spot too.

My FIL still drives a '95 Tahoe on the original trans and he's pushing 200k. It's a total POS otherwise, but it gets him from point A to B and that's all he cares about.

stever

GM was incapable of making a competitive minivan and had to leave that segment of the market.

Or you could say GM had prescience and got out of a dying market when the getting was good. Even Chrysler has been debating dropping them.

andre1969

GM was incapable of making a competitive minivan and had to leave that segment of the market.

I think GM could have made a competitive minivan if they had really put more effort into it. But, in the early years, they tried to hard to be unique, rather than following the Caravan/Voyager model. The Chevy Astro/GMC Safari were fairly popular for awhile, but they were more of a 3/4 scale work van, whereas the Caravan/Voyager blended the concept of van, car, and wagon.

I think that, if the minivan market had stayed as large as it was, GM would have toughed it out and improved their product. But instead, they started focusing more on crossovers like the Equinox and Traverse. Seems like today, the only real players in the minivan market are the Caravan/T&C, Oddysey, and Sienna. Ford dropped out, just like GM did. I'm surprised Nissan is holding on with the Quest. I hardly ever see them on the road. And Mazda has that Mazda5 thing, but it's much smaller than the rest, and seems more like the first-gen Odyssey, or even those old tall Civic and Stanza wagons from once upon a time.