The Current State of the US Auto Market

dieselone

Here's my pro GM post of the day. The new CTS is Motor Trend Car of the Year!

circlew

Malibu gaining ground but Sonata is as well.

busiris

" Does anybody really know 'more than ten' people who own the same model of vehicle? And we were discussing particular models of Odyssey that fall under the recall. The original poster was the guy talking about 'ten', not me. I know one, with a complete trans failure. No towing. Typical young family. Vehicle bought new. "

It's certainly a believable claim, especially since there are so many of the type vehicle out there.

After all, as your quote above notes... "typical young family".

And, typical families with young kids see lots of other typical families with young kids at day care, ball games, school, etc.

It's not that much of a stretch to think its possible. I know well over 10 families owning BMW 3-series vehicles, but only a couple that own Z4's. Of course, there have been many fewer Z4 's manufactured than 3-Series BMW's.

So, I'd say its very possible.

I'm sure I could count well over 10 people I know that own Toyota Camry models.

Edit: After giving it some thought, I'm sure during the 15 year time period in which we sequentially owned 3 Chrysler minivans I could have easily named at least 10 other Chrysler minivan owners.

anythngbutgm

LOL, there are more than 10 Camry's in my parking lot here at my work alone...

And I know all of them

andre1969

Off the top of my head, I can think of about ten full-sized 1960 Dodges, although that included the 118" wb Dart and the bigger 122" Polara/Matador line.

I should disclose though, that they're all owned by the same hoarder. :P

tlong

Here's my pro GM post of the day. The new CTS is Motor Trend Car of the Year!

It's now in esteemed company with the Chevy Vega and Renault Alliance!

lemko

Dang! Where's the "Like" button for this?

dieselone

"And, typical families with young kids see lots of other typical families with young kids at day care, ball games, school, etc. "

My kids are still school age with one in 6th and the other in 9th. Minivans and SUVs are mainly what I see when dropping the kids off etc, at various functions. I think at least 1/3 of the houses in my neighborhood have a minivan.

I've owned a minivan in the past. They are simply a great family vehicle. We had a '96 Mercury Villager, thanks to its Nissan mechanicals it went 100k trouble. I traded it in on an SUV for additional tow capacity.

lemko

My Dad had a 1989 Ford Aerostar van which was pretty much a minivan-like body on top of a Ford Ranger chassis.

dieselone

My grandma had one of those Areostar vans. It was pretty awful.

anythngbutgm

And the first Rentibu/Olds Cutlass.

tlong

We had a '96 Mercury Villager, thanks to its Nissan mechanicals it went 100k trouble.

We went 235K on our 1994 Villager, with almost no significant issues. That Nissan engine/tranny combo was bulletproof.

dieselone

Other than being a bit underpowered, it was a good van.

circlew

Another Tesla Model S has caught fire after a crash. It's the third widely-reported fire involving one of the all-electric plug-in luxury cars in just two months.

All three fires involved some sort of accident. None of the fires occurred in undamaged vehicles, Tesla Motors pointed out.

Third Tesla Model S catches fire after crash

dieselone

"Another Tesla Model S has caught fire after a crash. It's the third widely-reported fire involving one of the all-electric plug-in luxury cars in just two months. "

Thankfully the national media isn't reporting every car fire as it there are approximately 150k car fires/yr.

tlong

The only real issue with Tesla is if the rate of fires/total number of their vehicles on the road is a lot higher than an average car.

stever

We went 235K on our 1994 Villager

We're at 194,500 on our '99 Quest. I feel like such a piker.

There's some recent fire updates on the Tesla news forum

andres3

The "sudden stopping" doesn't really mean much to me. Any car that suddenly starts to stop functioning will suddenly stop unless you have a long down hill stretch to roll down.

If a car won't start then it has sudden lack of acceleration issues.

0-60 MPH in the amount of time you can tow it to the shop, get it fixed, and taken back up to 60 MPH. Could be days or weeks.

uplanderguy

I guess all I'm saying is, I couldn't say that right now, I know more than ten people with the same model and era of any vehicle. I'm not talking vehicles out in the parking lot at work; I'm talking about knowing people--where we'd discuss vehicles and I'd know if they were having a recall issue or not.

I'm just saying the original poster's sphere of influence is apparently much larger than mine.

imidazol97

>We're at 194,500 on our '99 Quest.

199,700 mi on my 98 leSabre. Will it make it to 200,000 mi?

imidazol97

I believe you had mentioned in an earlier post how a few people have less interest in reporting recalls now that some foreign brands are winning the race instead of the F/GM/C group being the stars.

Same thing happens in some other forums. There is mention of politically-charged pro one party comments, and that is fine. But then when there is something to mention that's anti the view of the poster who's edging into the third rail of politics/religion topics, and there come the complaints.

Same with football, I guess. I'm not into Pro ball; I watch football while I do something else like forums or reading--the Bengals can do as they please. College ball is diffferent: Go Bucks, since Junior is at OSU. He can probably get us some good tickets to sell for next year!

Mr_Shiftright

Small comfort, really.

suydam

My son has a '98 LeSabre. I don't care for driving it but I have to say it's been a champ longevity-wise. It's also hovering around 200k.

andres3

My feeling is the more ACCURATE information, the better.

For years GM said they were fine and the next new vehicle was a home run and bankruptcy was absurd rather than inevitable.

Accurate additional information clearly showed that they had their heads buried in the sand, so I'm all for MORE information that is accurate.

tlong

I'm just saying the original poster's sphere of influence is apparently much larger than mine.

Your friends are just here in the Forums, so you can't see our cars.

uplanderguy

"Off the top of my head, I can think of about ten full-sized 1960 Dodges, although that included the 118" wb Dart and the bigger 122" Polara/Matador line.

I should disclose though, that they're all owned by the same hoarder."

A friend of mine in Akron has at least ten Studebakers, but they're not all the same year or model! LOL

Seems I rarely saw the 'big' '60 Dodges. They looked pretty luxurious, in my memory. I remember Matadors, but not Polaras back then.

Did you ever watch "Gomer Pyle USMC" in reruns? I absolutely remember one where Sgt. Carter drove a red with white top, '60 Dodge...a lower model; probably Dart or Pioneer? I believe it was a two-door sedan, although looked nice. Gomer was to watch over it while Sarge was out of town. A wrecking ball completely crushed it (of course!). The construction company felt so bad, they gave Sgt. Carter a new '66 Dodge Coronet 500 two-door hardtop. I haven't seen that episode probably since the late '60's but I remember it well.

They referred to Sarge's '60 as a '61--but it was definitely a '60.

uplanderguy

It is accurate that the Asian manufacturers have far and away led in recalls this year.

Also, "for years" GM talked of avoiding bankruptcy?

I'm all for accuracy, and avoiding hyperbole, too.

stever

We need to grab Suydam's son and start a 200k club around here (assuming we both make it, lol).

tlong

Also, "for years" GM talked of avoiding bankruptcy?

I'm all for accuracy, and avoiding hyperbole, too.

I agree GM didn't do that. They were insisting they were fine up until right before the implosion. It was analysts and others who for years saw it coming. Heck, we were speculating about that here on these boards at the time that Wagoner was still insisting everything was doing fine.

uplanderguy

Do you also agree--even if you think they're unimportant--that Asian brands have far and away led in recalls this year?

lemko

Gomer also wrecked another one of Sgt. Carter's cars - a 1955 or 1956 Dodge which he ran into the back of a truck.

I wonder how much more entertaining "Gomer Pyle USMC" would've been if R. Lee Ermey played Sgt. Carter?

andre1969

Seems I rarely saw the 'big' '60 Dodges. They looked pretty luxurious, in my memory. I remember Matadors, but not Polaras back then.

Dodge only made about 44,000 of the "big" Dodges in 1960. IIRC it was something like 26,000 Matadors and 18,000 Polaras. In contrast, they made around 330,000 Darts. With around 374,000 sales, Dodge was certainly one of the bigger success stories of 1960, as they came roaring back to popularity. In contrast, they only sold about 156,000 units in 1959.

Unfortunately though, coming out with the Dart, which wasn't just a model, but a whole lineup that matched Plymouth model for model (Seneca/Pioneer/Phoenix versus Savoy/Belvedere/Fury), would ultimately doom Plymouth, yet seal Dodge's fate as a more downmarket Ford/Chevy type of car, rather than a middle-priced Mercury/Pontiac contender.

In 1960, the Dart lineup actually outsold the full-sized Plymouths, although Plymouth as a whole still beat out Dodge, because of the compact Valiant.

One big 1960 Dodge I always remember is in Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds". When the crows attack the school, Melanie Daniels, little Cathy Brenner, and a little girl who lost her glasses take refuge in a 1960 Polara 4-door hardtop wagon. Y'know, if that movie was made today, Tippi Hedren would have been dead several times over, partly because nobody leaves their car doors locked anymore, and partly because phone booths are pretty much ancient history!

Oh, as for the Polara 4-door hardtop wagon...the mechanic who has my DeSoto has one. And it has a factory-original Cross-Ram 383 dual-quad setup! I can't imagine too many people would have ordered a wagon with one of those...

As for Sgt. Carter's 1960 Dart, I do remember that episode. I caught it on TVLand back around 2000 or so. One thing that I had forgotten though, is that Sgt. Carter actually had a Dart Phoenix 2-door hardtop, that was in pretty nice shape. When the wrecking ball fell on the car, it was a somewhat worn, base level 2-door sedan, most likely a Seneca. I had to look that up on IMCDB.org.

Here's the Seneca: http://imcdb.org/vehicle_231766-Dodge-Dart-Seneca-1960.html

And here's the Phoenix: http://imcdb.org/vehicle_231763-Dodge-Dart-Phoenix-1960.html

Mr_Shiftright

you have to "weigh" each recall to make any sense out of that statement.

Does one "water leak may effect headlight relay" equal one "tie rod may break"?

I don't think so. One diminishes your car's abilities a bit; the other kills you.

uplanderguy

Look back a bit at Asian brand recalls this year. You won't see many large recalls that are things like 'headlight relays'.

stever

Recalls are really getting granular too.

"In one case this year, GM found that a defective transmission clutch plate was causing an annoying rattling in the Chevrolet Camaro. The company found the 18 affected cars quickly enough that 10 were still on dealership lots.

Tiny recalls of that kind are growing across the industry, experts say, as automakers, like drug companies and food manufacturers, build sophisticated data-mining operations to guard against costly and reputation-crippling recalls."

How data mining helped GM limit a recall to 4 cars (Automotive News)

imidazol97

That's a great piece of information. Interesting.

Sort of like an ad I see for a grocery or a warehouse club of the future where you just pick up things and wheel them out the door and are charged via the tags and your payment info already on file.

Also from Steve's link:
"Maureen Foley-Gardner, director of field performance evaluation at GM, said the automaker has used its database for 20 percent of field actions this year, up from 5 percent in 2012, and watched as the average action has shrunk by 40 percent."

xrunner2

>>>>>>Do you also agree--even if you think they're unimportant--that Asian brands have far and away led in recalls this year?>>>>>>

One of the Edmunds people said that "Recalls" could be the title of a new thread here at Edmunds. Will that happen soon?

uplanderguy

Apparently if they lean in one direction, six-figure recalls have nothing to do with "The State of the U.S. Auto Market"--even though they cost the manufacturers a bunch of money and cause customers to make largely-unscheduled dealer visits.

stever

Oh, we just kind of tossed that out there. Do you really think there'd be much interest in a discussion devoted to random recalls?

xrunner2

>>>>>>Do you really think there'd be much interest in a discussion devoted to random recalls?>>>>>

Maybe someone could do an analysis of posts over the last year and determine what percent of the posts were about recalls.

stever

Hm, our search tool here limits out at 200 hits and there have been 200 posts with "recall" since mid September.

That's a lot more than I expected. So, was there a consensus on a good title? We can move some of the recent posts over and seed the new discussion.

Assuming that most people want to see one started, that is.

andre1969

I think it would get old after awhile. In this forum, it rears its head for a bit, sparks some debate and gives the conversation some variety, but then dies down after awhile as we move on to other things. I think a forum devoted only to recalls would get boring pretty quickly. Plus, they'd still end up getting mentioned over here, I'm sure.

uplanderguy

Well, apparently, the people have spoken. Recalls don't belong in a thread about "The State of the U.S. Auto Industry". BTW, a few thousand '13 and '14 Toyota Tundras recalled today for potential engine failure.

circlew

Here's a handy list if you're a Chevy customer.

Chevrolet Recalls

uplanderguy

No denials there. But the numbers tell the story.

You know that.

It's OK to admit things. I tell my kids that all the time.

I haven't seen a GM recall, other than the Camaro sticker that was loose, for weeks on Edmunds. There are large Asian-maker recalls several times a week lately--for an ongoing period. That's the fact.

I believe in posting all current recalls..not picking and choosing, which has happened on Edmunds sites previously.

I don't pick and choose--the only current recalls, and the biggest ones, are for Asian makes. Period.

Did anyone post here about GM's October performance? If so, I somehow missed it--certainly not out of the realm of possibility, especially since I was out-of-town this past week. Seems to contradict earlier statements here that the new Silverado and Sierra aren't selling well.

Mr_Shiftright

Bet I could.

uplanderguy

You simply won't see the numbers involved in Asian-make recalls the past couple months or so, on the domestic makes. And I'm not comparing 'serious' recalls on domestics to minimal stuff on the Asians, either. The Asians have had some large AND serious recalls lately. That's what's sticking in some folks' craw here.

Mr_Shiftright

No doubt. All I'm saying is that cherrypicking a recall doesn't prove much---you'd have to match recalls vs. production, then recalls vs. overall frequency rates say within the last 4 years, and then you'd have to weigh the seriousness of the recalls themselves.

so in other words, having the most recalls could still make you the best automaker, compared to a lower volume automaker with fewer, but more serious defects and more recalls per capita.

busiris

My only complaint with all of the recall posting is when it turns into an obvious measuring contest.

Its impossible to accurately compare the severity of one recall with another one, yet some posters do exactly that.

As related to a previously posted comment, my prediction is that we will continue to see an increased rate in recalls across the board, as data mining grows in significance with auto makers. It will probably be a permanent trend.

I do agree with the idea that Asians seem to be leading in the number of recent recalls. Before anyone starts to gloat too much about that, however, they should remember the old adage "what goes around, comes around".

To a certain extent, all of us live in glass houses...

uplanderguy

The 'glass houses' thing is for sure. I never say never.

However, I truly believe--and I believe an objective review would agree--that there was plenty of gloating when things were going the other way. The difference is, there's more objectivity now in the recalls being posted--it's just that so many more of them are Asian brands.

For instance, to post a list of recalls specific to only one brand, when those are significantly fewer than recent recalls of other makes--what purpose does that serve except to flame?