The Current State of the US Auto Market

berri

Now that the gov has sold the last of it's GM stock holdings, Washington and Detroit believe it is the end of the "Government Motors" stigma. Do you agree? My thought is that since the government ended up $10B in the hole and GM is not paying that loss back, many will still see it as Government Motors for a long time regardless of Washington no longer holding any shares. There are arguments showing that on a Macro basis the bailout was still a net win for the overall US economy, and that is probably true, but I'm not sure that is going to sway the general public's thinking. OTOH, does the stigma really matter anyway and will it really end up affecting most buyers decisions?

dieselone

"But are none of them hard drive anymore?"

The Nav system in my '14 Ram is not DVD based. It doesn't even have a CD player. Updates are uploaded via USB flash drive. I've done one Uconnect system upgrade myself. It was fairly painless and only took a few minutes.

crkyolfrt

Dang...I sat in a Spark and was disgusted that it had NO CD player. Not an option at ANY price.

Now I am frig astounded that Chrysler is so arrogant that they think they can sell 55+k vehicles to old school p/u truck driver wannabees with NO CD player! It is absurd and I will penalize them by putting them on the same shelf as Ford..but just for a different reason.

If someone is gungho and WANTS the Ram, I really despise that anyone with 50+k large or 70 even, can't get a CD player so that they can enjoy their new ride on the way home from the dealership and for every other highway trip they may take for the next five +years with their fav CDs, and NOT be forced to figure out how to get all that music (all 750 cds) onto flash drives, just so these arses can save a measily 22.50 per vehicle by omitting the CD palyer. Well THIS 55k+ cash buyer has just officially moved on.
Good on ya Ram...NOT!

tlong

I think the stigma has added somewhat to the hurdles that GM has to overcome to stay successful, but they can still do it. If they keep up their competitiveness in new models and the reliability continues to improve, then over time the public will forgot and they can rebuild their reputation. If they don't deliver well enough, and/or if the economy tanks and they end up more exposed and fragile than other companies, then they could repeat the past. I don't think we'll really know for 5-10 more years which way things will go.

circlew

"If you only count the things that make you look good and don't count the things that make you look bad, any investment will look good and any investment will be profitable," said Dan Mitchell, senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute.

The center's analysis doesn't place a value on the adjustments that the auto industry would have been forced to make in the absence of a bailout.

"Those adjustments, more meaningful concessions in labor costs and work rules, would have put the auto industry on a sounder footing," he said.

suydam

CDs are fast becoming like 8 tracks. It's just how it is. You can get all those CD songs on your iPod and you'll be set.

stever

CDs are "last century" and the form factor is a pain. But I don't have any, so don't much care anyway.

It helps that my ear isn't that good, so I'm happy with mp3s stuck on a little chip. One of my fav net radio stations is mono.

There's always the accessory section at Canadian Tire.

Circlew, did the analyst happen to specify the US auto industry or was he talking about China's?

circlew

Must be China....the next nail in GM's coffin.

busiris

"CDs are "last century" and the form factor is a pain. But I don't have any, so don't much care anyway."

That's very true. And, unless one is in a highly isolated interior (read-expensive LUX automobile), the extraneous noise in the cabin negates the extra quality CD wave files offer, at least for 99% of listeners.

Thinking back on it, it's been years since I rode in a vehicle and someone popped a CD into the player. Everyone I know uses mp3s. You can carry your entire music library in your pocket in mp3 format, whereas it might take 1/2 your trunk space to carry the same music in CD format.

I can certainly understand the appeal of mp3s, and the lack of CD player use in modern vehicles.

Mr_Shiftright

I think the alleged "stigma" is a false problem. The only "stigma" that exists is in the mind of some commentators, not in the minds of the American buying public. The REAL stigma that is still upon GM has nothing to do with bail-outs, it has to do with whether they can be trusted to build cars that don't break.

circlew

Exactly right!

Now here's some Big GM news

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-said-choose-barra-first-134608080.html

Mr_Shiftright

Might be good for GM but I didn't care for this comment about her "specialty":

" wringing costs out of the supply chain"

berri

I'm inclined to agree. People say things, but that often goes out the window when there is a vehicle they like!

berri

I wonder if that RAM had a cd player in the center seat console? I believe I read RAM was moving it there to free up dash space. When cassettes disappeared from cars, trucks were the last ones to eliminate them. I guess the issue with cd's is will all the makers dump them art once. Many older, and often somewhat affluent people have large cd collections. Cars are getting pretty comparable today, so those who still want a cd player might simply switch to a different vehicle brand. Personally, I'm not sure there will be a quick elimination of cd players yet, particularly in higher priced vehicles that tend to sell to older consumers.

fintail

I suspect the average American who isn't glued to Faux News has no idea. No stigma for the average punter looking for an aggressively priced car. It's all about the cars, and although GM is far from perfect, it is light years ahead of even a decade ago.

And I have to add, when military-industrial waste gets the same coverage as enraged mysteriously affluent fake free marketeers give the bailout, get back to me.

robr2

Might be good for GM but I didn't care for this comment about her "specialty": " wringing costs out of the supply chain"

The article didn't say that. It said:

Barra, 51, whose career started on a factory floor as an intern more than 30 years ago, has been in charge of product development and quality of all GM cars and trucks for 22 months, fostering collaboration and wringing costs out of the supply chain.

and

He asked her to cut costs by aligning purchasing and product development, two powerful units that had long been at odds. In one early example, GM engineers and suppliers found savings by redesigning knee air bags so that they could be used in more vehicles without having to design different dashboards for each model..."If it's customer facing, why does it have to be?" Barra said of the conversations she's had with engineers. "And then if it's not, why can't it be common for the globe? Some components and subsystems depend on the size of the vehicle, the performance you're looking for. But if you start with questioning ‘why can't I have one solution?' then you get engineering thinking completely differently."

She's an engineer and a car girl. She was tasked with finding cost savings by bringing engineering and purchasing together to find where savings could be found. It looks like they focused on things customers don't see like airbags, wiring harnesses, et al.

Mr_Shiftright

that's for the addition. I think those are two different things, though--the supply chain implies "suppliers", not engineering per se.

I guess I was worried that GM was still banging on "buy from the lowest bidder".

You got a $4 tire?---fine, we'll take it.

andre1969

I've had my Ram for about 15 months now, and I don't think I've even bothered to stick a CD in it yet.

Amazing how fast the times change, though. Back in late 1999, when I bought my 2000 Intrepid, it only had a CD player. So, as part of the deal, I had them put a 12-disc CD changer in the trunk. Seemed like such a necessity at the time, to be able to play CDs.

My 2000 Park Ave has a cassette player and single CD. I don't think I've used it more than a few times, in the ~4 years I've had that car.

busiris

"I suspect the average American who isn't glued to Faux News has no idea. No stigma for the average punter looking for an aggressively priced car. It's all about the cars, and although GM is far from perfect, it is light years ahead of even a decade ago. "

I totally agree.

I can't tell you how many folks I've heard whining about Chinese made merchandise in Walmart that ought to be made in the USA, but then I see them buying it in Walmart.

Opinions are often overruled when pricing is taken into account, be it toasters or cars.

robr2

...the supply chain implies "suppliers", not engineering per se.

The supply chain includes everything from suppliers to in house activities to final purchase by the end consumer. Getting engineers to reduce the number of sku's, then the supply chain is affected by eliminating the costs related to deleted sku's and a reduction in cost due to higher quantity purchases of the remaining sku's.

busiris

"Personally, I'm not sure there will be a quick elimination of cd players yet, particularly in higher priced vehicles that tend to sell to older consumers."

I think you're probably correct, but there is no question they're being phased out. As more car infotainment systems come with hard drives for music storage and mp3 compatibility, it's only natural that CDs will become rarer and rarer.

In less than 5 years, more cars will probably come without CD players than with them, IMO.

dieselone

"If someone is gungho and WANTS the Ram, I really despise that anyone with 50+k large or 70 even, can't get a CD player so that they can enjoy their new ride on the way home from the dealership and for every other highway trip they may take for the next five +years with their fav CDs"

A CD player is an option, mine just doesn't have it. I haven't listened to a CD in my personal vehicle in a loooong time.

I have my entire music collection on a 32GB SD card in the SD card slot in my Ram. No need to be a disk jockey;)

dieselone

"I wonder if that RAM had a cd player in the center seat console? I believe I read RAM was moving it there to free up dash space. "

If my Ram had the CD player as an option it would be in the center console.

fintail

Sadly, there are many items where one cannot escape "Made in China", or people cannot realistically afford in a time of stagnant or declining real incomes. Hopefully this will not happen to cars. I bought a new toaster a couple years ago, and it wasn't a cheap one - I think it was made in Mexico. I'm not completely on the anti-Wal Mart bandwagon either, but the company does have some serious ethical problems.

Regarding GM, I had no problem saying the Impala I rented last month was a fine competent car, relative to the competition, probably the best large Chevy since the downsized 1977 models. And although I am pretty sure what I want my next car to be (should cash flow allow at lease end), I might test drive a new style CTS just to see what it's about - it looks impressive.

fintail

I've had my car for almost a year now, I've never played a CD in it, and don't plan to. The prior car had a changer, which I almost never used - I'd use the mp3 player, or in the new car, an SD card. I can put a lot of music on a mere 4GB card.

circlew

Well, the average American sure forgot about GM considering it's plunge in market share.

Just makes it easier to remember with G - M as the continuing initials. Agree they are making far better products so market share won't decline much...but so are the competition.

What's another $10.5B? Pocket change!

circlew

I was thinking when you might try a Caddy since you already know it wasn't in the same class as the comp for years.

I'd try an ATS and the CTS now that GM actually is competing.

fintail

The Praetorian sector probably wastes that much in a month. A billion dollars aint what it used to be.

If the competition can receive federal lifelines, we can either do similar when our industry needs it, or we can implement measures to compensate for the gifts of others. No other way, if you want anything even resembling a level playing field.

fintail

What I really want is a C250 diesel 4Matic wagon. I know for 2015 we're finally going to see a diesel C, but I don't know about a wagon. There's a diesel 4Matic E now though, so maybe that bodes well.

Somehow, the ATS looks like it might be just a little small. And for a loaded one, MSRP anyway is overpriced - but I don't know real world prices.

I might end up being a leaser for awhile - I already have one "forever" car, and it's kind of nice having less worries about failure or deferred maintenance, even if I have a payment. Cheap subsidized leases help, too.

berri

I'm not familiar with music on sd cards. I know they use them for camera's. On the new vehicles that take them, can you just move song files from a cd onto it, or do you have to still go through something like I-tunes first? Thanks

Mr_Shiftright

I'm sure the NSA wastes bazillions. They aren't even audited, ever, by anyone.

10 bil? Sofa money.

fintail

I've never moved anything from a CD directly to a card, but I'd think you could move from CD to computer then computer to card. All of my music is on the computer, so moving from computer to card is instant. I think cards and bluetooth streaming are the way of the future.

berri

So then I'm guessing I can move those music files as WAV instead of mp3 (just fewer songs on a card)? I know what everyone is saying about car noise, but I still think WAV sounds better.

dieselone

A wav. file would probably work, but the file size would likely make the system slow to navigate such large files.

Ironically, my 15 year old daughter asked for a turn table and vinyl records for Christmas. Apparently vinly is making somewhat of a come back.

suydam

If you have a Mac, CDs to computer and then it will sync automatically to iphone or iPod and you're good to go. Nowadays the new laptops don't have DVD drives anymore so you have to get an external one.

hpmctorque

Cheap subsidized leases can be excellent, for the reasons you stated, if you're going to trade cars every 24, 36 or 39 months anyway. Since lease payments are amortizing the heaviest period of depreciation in a vehicle's life, however, it's usually less expensive to drive a car for 10 or more years, notwithstanding the subsidy on shorter term ownership. But, yeah, if you want to drive new cars, I agree with you.

I've considered leasing, but haven't done it yet. I may do it in the future. It'll depend on the car and the deal.

busiris

On my 2010 BMW 328i, you can move the music directly to the car's hard drive from the CD, or you can transfer mp3 files to the hard drive via a USB memory stick.

All music is stored on the hard drive in mp3 format, so when you move music from CD to the hard drive, the car converts it from WAV to mp3 format.

busiris

I'm not familiar with any car infotainment system that stores music in WAV format. AFAIK, they all use mp3 format.

berri

It's interesting how much of the vinyl is now being sold to young buyers. I'm older than a lot of you guys and came out of the military during Vietnam with the typical analog component stereo equipment. There really is a richness to analog music. Digital is a bit colder and mp3 (on good equipment and speakers) can suffer at the edges in bass and treble. It's not awful by any means, just a little hollow on good speaker systems to me. My youngest was (and still is) an I-tunes person, but after getting a nice new vehicle she started using both her I-Pod and cd's in it. On longer drives she now uses the cd player instead because she feels it sounds better (she does have a good sound system in that vehicle). It's an individual thing, but maybe we'll see a time again when more attention is given to the intricacies of sound (although maybe not necessary on stuff like rap). Tell those kids to keep buying that vinyl :-)

PS - I suppose you guys can start calling me "pops" since I like old cars, old rock and propliners!

fintail

I acquire my music from the internet, so it's no problem for me so long as the computer has an SD card slot. Even my aging 4 year old laptop has one. I think I've only used the disc drive to back up files when the computer was new. Things change.

fintail

I had my E55 for what was going to be 7 years, after that long, I risk becoming too attached, where selling would be hard. Eventually it would be time to move on, and I can't hoard cars - so I cut the cord. I liked the car a lot, but I try to not have sellers remorse. It is nice to have warranty peace of mind, and the latest tech. And this is my first new car. If I was thinking about being less expensive, I wouldn't be attracted to German cars to begin with

Whether or not I lease again will depend on finances and deals, too. If I can afford it, I don't mind producing clean CPO cars for MB dealers, if they give me an incentive. If anything, I have the money from the old car sitting in a Vanguard account, so I can always find a decent used car, if need be.

fintail

That's something odd on late MBs - I think CDs can be moved to the HD, but not mp3s from an external source. Probably a legal fear due to RIAA insanity.

fintail

I'm a bit younger than you, and I have a Victrola (seriously), so...

I don't listen to music too loud, so ipod vs CD is the same to me, especially if the quality is 160k or higher.

tlong

I think the alleged "stigma" is a false problem.

It's not a false problem if there are a significant number of customers who would have bought GM, but now won't due to the bailouts. While we don't know how many people those are, I doubt it's zero. Whether it is significant or not -- who knows?

stever

Audiophiles supposedly rank "Goldfinger" on vinyl as the most perfect recording ever made. Shirley Bassey did the vocals in the proverbial phone booth. Whatever you like. :-)

My mp3s go on a sd card that gets stuck in a $5 Chinese FM transmitter for playing though the radio. Now that's quality, lol.

Someone mentioned hard drives in cars - I tend to turn my nose up at those too. Why have something mechanical in the dash? Better to go with a solid state drive.

Mr_Shiftright

I don't believe that 1 in a 1000 gives a fig, as long as they like the GM product and get a good deal. Besides, it makes no sense to hate a company that came back from the dead. Americans don't think like that. We like underdogs...a lot.

berri

Stever, you're taking me back to high school when my girlfriend and I managed to sneak into that movie underage! The Brits always had a great reputation for vinyl, but I'm no audiophile and don't know about that claim. I'm thinking the (for the time) T&A (yeah, they had that in Hollywood before Freddie Silverman!) had some influence on that judgment :-)

crkyolfrt

Well..you can call me pops too then..I am so discouraged to read the last couple pages as see the easy majority have all adapted like it is nothing! to MP3 etc. The sound is simply NOT as good as a CD and when I listen to my music, it is NOT elevator backgrd music to me! It is FRONT AND CENTRE! and I'm listening to stuff I either made or want to hear in its entirety. And I want it clean. It seems like a lot of the guys here want convenience and quantity over quality. Geeez...as if a dozen CDs take up a lot of room or are a hassle to deal with, compared to the quality you get back for your relatively slack amt of work involved to use them. I'm just dumbfounded.

I suspect that few if ANY of you guys ever smoked dope in years past, so wouldn't know great sounding music even if it jumped up and but you all on the butt..

Now...before you all take offense..I really only mean that paragraph as a means to try to make a point I am trying to make here...obviously I don't want any one person to dissect and take the comment too personally.

If any of ya'll have come from the hippy era, surely to goodness.. kids, family life and sparring neck to neck with the Jones' have not completely caused you to forget what great, solid, rib vibrating clean powerful sound was/is all about...and your iPod can't do it. Can it?

FWIW, I am so old school I'm ready to just drop off this too fast-paced earth. I not only 'can't' keep up. I don't even 'want' to anymore. I do not own a 'smart' phone. No iPod, no iPad altho I do have a Mac..but only cuz the premium is worth the lesser hassles created by PC. And couldn't make an MP3 file if my life depended on it (altho if it had as good a sound as a CD I would damn well figure it out) and and am annoyed that that seems to qualify me somehow.... like it or not.

The fact that so many 55+ year old guys here have just adapted like it was nothing, makes me feel slow, stupid, poor, rigid and just lost in better memories from years gone by..
I just ain't ready for all this new crap that will just be all obsolete 10 or fewer years from now. All you all are doing is supporting the techies and their bank accts. I'm all for a major revolt. Revolt against all this tech. Revolt against lost Right to Repair our vehicles rights, etc etc etc..

While I do not lament the loss of the ol' 33 1/3 vinyl, G-D save the CD/DVD. !!

berri

As the hippies would say back in the 60's "right on, brother". Now I'd toke some weed on that, but my allergies and sinuses would flair up. Maybe some malt liquor, but that would aggravate my hiatal hernia. Could go out and look for some action, but my back...well, you get the picture. So you young guys keep enjoying life while you can, but that means listening to some real music ;-)

busiris

"Someone mentioned hard drives in cars - I tend to turn my nose up at those too. Why have something mechanical in the dash? Better to go with a solid state drive."

I have no way of knowing, but it suspect the drive in my 328i is indeed a solid state drive. From a reliability standpoint, that would make far more sense.