Future Collectibles--Make Your Prediction

carnut4

I REALLY REALLY liked the other better. Why was it necessary to change?

isellhondas

The old is gone forever. Too bad since this is very difficult to navagate and has lost features.

No longer can we hide posts etc...

I guess if it becomes too much of a hassel I'll move on.

Too bad...

Mr_Shiftright

My understanding is that improvements will be made as time goes on...there is a feature on this software called "subscribe" which is a lot like placemarks, and we may see that around the first of the year.

b4z

I was told to login even though i was already logged in. When i went to log in it told me that i was already logged in!!
This new format is completely lacking in navigability. It takes me twice as long to do what i am trying to do.
We used to be able to type in a topic.
Now we have to go to a conference and the topics aren't even in alphabetical order!!

ndance

is either to revert to the old format, or to allow both
to coexist (both referencing the same database). I mean,
really, I write software that's a lot bigger and badder than
these fancy bbs systems and the loss of features (the appearance
change is no biggie) on something this simple is laughable.
Oh well, enough nastiness for now.

ndance

I went looking for other information on the sw change.
I see the deal now... going from brand x 3rd party stuff
to brand y. Sr. Shiftright, how big a staff do you guys
have? Is there 10 or so hosts, a sys admin, a secretary,
some number of shared writers between Edmunds mags + the site,
and a Sun in a closet? or several hundred 20-something
web developers (soon to be mentioned in www.f***edcompany.com
when the true value of web advertising becomes more obvious)?

Mr_Shiftright

Hosts are not really part of staff...we are like contract workers, so we just work with what they give us and try to do our best for the community. I feel that Edmunds is genuinely interested in you folks and that this software will definitely improve. It just had to change and people at Edmund's and the vendors are working very hard to make it a nice environment for you all. So just be patient and LET'S TALK ABOUT CARS!

Any new suggestions for future collectibles? Keith Martin from Sportscar Magazine was saying in a recent editorial that he didn't think people would come to love their modern cars as much because "they don't need anything"....there's something to that....if you haven't nursed something back to health, you aren't quite as attached to it. Modern cars really ask nothing of their owners. What do you all think about that reasoning?

Shiftright the Host

lokki

It's really all the same thing. You don't know what you've got till it's gone.

Anyhow... In a brave attempt to follow Señor Shiftright's wishes, I hereby predict that the Audi TT coupes will be collectible as heck about the time I can cash in my 401k holdings without penalty. I personally will be buying an old M3 instead ( as I've never been an Audi fan, going back to the days when the tranmissions fell out and they wouldn't accelerate intentionally or otherwise) but the TT is sooooo elegant looking. The pictures really don't do them justice.

Yes, I think that they have all the earmarks of a collectible; and further here's a case where I think the coupe will be worth more than the convertible. The convertible looks like something from Toys R Us somehow...

(Think that'll get 'em mad enough to stop whining about this terrible new software, Shifty?- where's the hide button when you need it??)

Mr_Shiftright

You can trust shiftright...we'll have a kind of placemark soon, and the speed will go up soon, too!

I like the Audi TT coupe mostly for its ground-breaking styling. It's the first really fresh-looking car to come around in years, along with another of my favorites, the Cougar of all things. Most cars, even some of the "exotics", are still back in the early 90s, but the TT is 21st Century all the way. I agree, it is an important car. Collectibility will depend on how many they make, of course. It's hard for a car to become truly collectible when there are thousands and thousands everywhere to be seen and bought. This is what keeps old Mustangs down in the $15-20K range. It seems only the very special editions or specially-optioned of the mass produced cars bring serious money and a real craving from collectors.

So we'll have to see about the TT. I also agree that the coupe may be more valuable and collectible than the convertible. This is rare, but it happens, like with the Mercedes Gullwing and the '63 Corvette Split Window. Both these are worth substantially more than their convertible brothers.

pablo_l

Distinct styling and a high desirability factor at the time they came out make for a future classic. The problem with many of today's -in many respect wonderful- cars is the design is not very special in most cases, and thus they'll probably not age into classics all that well.

I agree the Audi TT, or Jaguar XKR Coupe could get there. The new Mercedes CL500 seems a tad too bland in styling. It'll probably be a very stealthy and anonymous classic. I think the '94-'96 years of the Jag XJS will be classics and go up in value at some point. The Prowler, although I am not a big fan of it. The new Mini, possibly. Each and every Ferrari, Rolls and Bentley, naturally. The BMW Z8.

Mr_Shiftright

Production numbers will definitely be a factor.....cars produced in the thousands, being modern and durable, will be around for a long time, so supply will equal demand for some time in the future. But if we're talking say 20 years down the road, perhaps some of these cars will become collected rather than discarded. It takes time with mass-produced cars.

pablo_l

Some mass produced cars, if in excellent condition, will fetch respectable prices. The Old Mini is still an example - very nice 60s models do cost quite a bit, at least in Europe. Same goes for a car such as the Citroen 2CV, and it's not even old! Some cars that get a very partisan and near fanatic following will be "collectibles" among that community. And often it is cheap cars "with personality", at least in Europe.

Mr_Shiftright

One factor in favor of Minis and 2CVs is that they were dearly loved the minute they came out, way back when. They are, to me, what I'd call "niche collectibles"--not high dollar cars, but very much loved by the few who do collect them.

rabidbowtie

50th Anniversary Corvette (2003 model)

prs3

I've got one for the "collectible file". How about Sunbeam Tigers. I have collected them for several years and they are a blast to drive. Most people don't know what they are and the look on the Vette and Mustang owners face when they see the V8 under the hood is priceless. Take a 2400lb car and put a 300hp V8 under the hood and hold on. Prices right now are good. Most of the authorities seem to think the Tiger is a great collectible for the future.

Mr_Shiftright

Tigers are already well-known collectibles, although their prices have been a bit sluggish until just the last year or two when they've gotten much stronger. They are fun cars, even if a real handful to drive (basically you steer with the gas pedal) and reasonably attractive....and not all that complicated to repair...it's a pretty basic 60s type car. Certainly worth a look if you want a fun British roadster under $20,000 (in most cases).

Buyers should watch out for fakes, made up from regular Alpines.

Anniversay Issues----I disagree. Most anniversay issue cars are just decals and hubcaps, and most haven't appreciated in value. The ones to look for are the Pace Cars done in limited numbers. Most aAnniversary cars are just an option installed at the factory or dealer and don't represent a limited edition automobile. If an anniversary car had it's own special engine or trans or total performance package that you couldn't get in a regular version, that would be more significant.

isellhondas

Fun and VERY fast but talk about a deathtrap!

They handle like crap. Too much weight in the front end.

Still, I'ld like to have one!

prs3

I currently have 3 Tigers, all of the rare variety. One is the first MK1a body style, one is one of the 73 South African Tigers built, and one is just a ground rocket. They are not known for their cornering ability but if set up correctly, they will do well on the track.
And yes you are correct about the Alines being converted to Tigers. If you are considering buying a Tiger, contact a certified inspector and let him authenticate the car. An Alpine is worth $6,000. Tigers go from $15,000 to $58,000. The average for a concurs restoration is about $30,000.(That is show car quality)Take it from me, they are incredibly fun.

Mr_Shiftright

THanks for the interesting post! Have you had much luck in solving the problem of lots of heat coming from the engine bay into the passenger compartment? I was thinking that "DYNAMAT" or similar insulation would help a lot.

I've never seen a Tiger sell for that much money myself but I have seen asking prices like that for complete nut and bolt restorations. I can imagine a perfect MKII bringing $30K from the right buyer, what with Healeys bringing that now. The $58K figure however, sounds like wishful dreaming or money from a rock star...you can buy some pretty tasty machinery for $58K in the collector car market.

I recall that one tipoff for a Tiger fake is the battery box location.

isellhondas

I always figured that a Tiger was little more than an Alpine with the Ford 260 or 289 engine, trans, rear end, etc.

And I would think the suspension and brakes would be beefed up.

What were the other differences?

rabidbowtie

It all depends ... Some Anniversary models were just trim, while some are not. Take the Anniversary Trans Am with the Buick Turbo engine. Those are already sought after.

Given the significance of the 50th Anniversary of the Corvette and the following that car has, all expectations are that it will be a special car.

lokki

Now there was the low point of a great car.....beautiful, but it needed some serious aftermarket work to make it a real performance car. Those were sad times, but not just for corvette... At one point Car and Driver said the fastest car in America....was a truck.....

Mr_Shiftright

If you have an "anniversary edition" with its own special engine, then yes, it has a better chance of being collectible. But decals and special upholstery, forget it....it's not going to matter, because these editions were churned out in huge numbers. Ask any poor slob who's been hoarding their "special edition" this or thats for 20 years in a garage, only to find out nobody cares today.

I was talking to a guy on e-mail the other day, and he was telling me "they only made 500 of my car" and I said..."yeah, because nobody wanted it"....and that was true in this case...the car was a marketing failure and it's very hard for a car that failed at inception to become highly collectible. Ask any Edsel owner.

rabidbowtie

Yeah, "Factory" performance kind of took a bath in the post-72 era. Nothing a gearhead couldn't fix.

tiger_260

It's a misconception that Tigers handle poorly because of extra weight on the front end. They're not especially front-heavy because the ford V8 (thin-wall casting)doesn't weigh much more than the 4 it replaces, and it's set back into the firewall to help weight distribution, which is nearly the same as the alpine. the handling problem is due to the fact that the position of the rack and pinion unit added in the changeover (alpines are recirc ball)adversely affects the angle of the wheels in relation to each other(ackerman angle)when turning, the error in angle increasing with the sharpness of the turn. doesn't really have much effect in normal, around-town driving, and I think the vintage-racing types may have found some solutions.

Mr_Shiftright

Yes, that's exactly it. Of course, any front-engine car with a rather conventional and flexible chassis and a big heavy engine is going to "push" and move around when it reaches the limits of the design...I guess what people remember is that the Tiger reaches its limits very quickly...for a variety of factors, many of which you mentioned, it's a good example of a car that is not so much in balance regarding engine and chassis and suspension and brakes. The first AC Cobras had this type of problem as well.

prs3

Heat and Tigers go hand in hand. Summer driving in traffic, for most Tigers, just doesn't happen. They will overheat, especially in warmer climates. Some owners report no problems with heat. I live in the southeast and the combination of heat and humidity keep the Tigers in the garage in the hot season.
If you want to see a $58K Tiger, look at Norm Miller's web site. There is one for sale there. It is a MkII ground up resto. Very nice job. The owner is trying to recover most of his expense. And you are right, $58K will buy a very nice piece of antique iron but once you own a Tiger, you understand why we are overboard for the marque.

b4z

THe 25th anniversary corvette was actually pretty quick in its time. It was avaialable with the L82 engine that i think was rated at 225 hp. It would 0-60 in about 6.6 seconds.
Was the truck that were referring to the Lil' Red Truck? It had a 360 and also put out 225 hp.
I believe that the corvette was faster than the ferrari 308 of that era.

Mr_Shiftright

Ah, don't mean to be picky, but that's NOT a $58K Tiger...that's what Norm Miller THINKS is a $58K Tiger...when I see say 10-20 of them sell at $58K around the country, I'll really start to believe they are worth that. You know how markets go, I think...asking prices don't determine market, nor does a single sale. Even if the car goes off at $58K for Mr. Miller (hey, good luck, I'm sure he's got close to that or more in it), that doesn't change the pricing guides--no more than, say, if I snatched one from an estate sale for $5,000 on a bargain distress sale--that wouldn't make them worth $5K.

This is why price guide publishers don't look to car clubs for pricing....too much self-interest, as you might well understand.

prs3

Norm Miller wasn't setting the price. The car is just on his site. The owner set the price. Purchase price of the car $12,000 - $15,000(Good price for a MKII in good restorable shape. I know, I just sold one) plus paint, parts(OEM), and labor. If you put a pencil to it, I'll bet he has got a least $58K in the car. This particular car has lots of OEM parts in it. I agree with you that $58K is strong. Some of the rarer cars are obviously worth more (MKII's,Prototypes,Factory Cars, etc)but the average ground up all original restoration goes for around $30K. One was sold a month or so ago that went for over $30k. I know the car and I was shocked. It is amazing what alot of excitement and emotion can do to prices of cars.

rabidbowtie

Too bad most judge the post-72 era cars by their "factory" power output, not by how they improved or by their potential and ease of upgrade.

lokki

"To mark Corvette's 25th anniversary, the 1978 model got a major aerodynamic re styling with large wraparound back window and a fastback roof line. The optional L82 was up to 220 horsepower due to a dual snorer air cleaner and better exhaust"

http://www.angelfire.com/as/corvette/FAQ.html

I stand corrected....

I don't remember which truck it was to be honest... seems likely that it was a Mopar...

Things are much better now for the Corvette... I think that a new Z06 will be a collectible without a doubt

b4z

Yep, It was the Dodge Lil' Red Truck. Available only in red with a stepside bed and oak side panels. The exhaust system was like a Peterbilt truck, with vertical chrome exhaust stacks behind the cab. Completely over the top.
There was also a Richard Petty Dodge Aspen with
deep dish wheels and big number 43 letters on the doors. It also had a 360, but it was not as powerful.
I think the late '70s were the height of the decal cars. No power but lots of stripes and stuff.

Mr_Shiftright

IF they keep the Z06 numbers low, it will retain good value over the coming years...but if they start cranking them out like regular C5s, or like Vipers even, it will take longer (if ever) for them to regain their original MSRP. Still, people will always want a powerful and good-looking car....but if they have hundreds to choose from each day, they may not pay really high prices. HP is large doses always gets attention, even in homely cars.

prs3

Is the Z06 as hot as all the articles say it is? It is my understanding that dealers are gettings as much as 10% over MSRP. I also understand that there is a price increase coming up after the first of the year. Any truth to the rumors?

b4z

The Zo6 was built on the very slow selling coupe body to boost its sales. The coupe was not selling well because of the unavailability of options that were available on the hatchback and convertible. Also there is less storage space in the coupe when compared to the hatchback.
It was very smart marketing on GMs part.
If GM does offer the Z06 on the hatchback i would imagine that the coupe sales would drop to almost nothing.
While the coupe is lighter than the hatchback, the hatchback is more aerodynamic and has a higher top speed.
I also think GM made a mistake by putting thinner glass in the z06, it doesn't save that much weight and makes the car much louder inside.
I think many of the z06 improvements will make their way to other corvette models.
I have also heard that there will be a 400 plus horsepower version of the LS6 soon.
GM will continue to improve this car as there is a lot of competition, especially the M3.
The coupe version of the z06 will be the least collectible if other versions are available.

socaldave2

Pretty easy:

'70 Chevelle SS LS6 equipped car
'67 Camaro Z28
'87 Grand National & GNX car
'96 Impala SS (yeah, its a 4 door..but check the resale value and cult status on these things!)
2000 Mustang Cobra R (try and find one!)
GMC Typhoon and Syclone trucks
'70 Mach I Mustang with 428CJ engine
'59 Cadillac Convertible
2002 Camaro Z28 with the LS6 engine

Comments?

Dave

b4z

Good list. I am '69 camaro guy though. The word on the street is that SLP will not be producing a LS6 Camaro for its last year.
In the new Car & Driver the Z06 corvette trounced the Cobra R, but i agree it is a strong collectible.

Mr_Shiftright

Yes, it is an interesting and well-thought out list.

I think the collectibility will vary considerably, though, among your selections...some will appreciate more and more and some will hit a "ceiling", like the 4-doors and the trucks...you can only squeeze so much interest in what are basically utilitarian designs...a truck is a truck is a truck and so too for a sedan. In people's minds these body styles keep the vehicle out of the higher realms of desire I think. Also, anything mass-produced generally has more of a struggle to survive...very few of the cars you mentioned are rare in any real sense of the word, so that holds them back...after many years, of course, as the cars are destroyed, rarity becomes more of a factor, like in the well-optioned Chevelle SS....still not rare, but harder and harder to find as authentic cars in good shape.

So some of your cars may take 20-25 years before any serious money is exchanged for them.

Obviously, you know one strong factor in collectibility.....POWER....the other factors are, I think, Prestige and Glory (like from racing victories). Very few American cars have all three, which is why you don't see million dollar American collectibles (but maybe someday?)

b4z

But don't you see a trend toward utility.Most of the vehicles sold today qualify as utility vehicles and i would think that they would have some collectibility 20 years down the road.
Look how unpopular two door vehicles have become and the fact that the fbody is going bye bye soon.
The only strong seller in the two door market is the mustang, and i can't believe how cheap the interior is in that thing.

Mr_Shiftright

Well, I guess tastes do change, that's true, but really, if you look at the record for old trucks and old 4-doors, most of them don't bring serious big money and those that do are heavily customized...there's a reason for that of course--they aren't very interesting to look at as a rule. A big 4-door looks like a police car or your uncle Fred's work car unless you really go hog wild on accessories....I guess what I'm saying is that they are too conservative a style and associated too much with utility. A two door or open car will always grab more attention...they are sexier and sleeker and all that....you can't hardly give away a 1965 Chevy 4-door six cylinder "stripper", but a '65 Impala convertible will always catch a buyer. True, a '65 Chevy pickup can bring some money, but what...$15,000 for a top restoration? It's hardly worth the trouble.

reid8

Maybe someone here can help,looking for a site or info for specs on 2000 Formula.JUst curoise,thanks for your help.

b4z

Try fbody.org

Mr_Shiftright

Or try our Coupes /Convertibles Message Board by using the drop down list on the upper left of this page.


Mr. Shiftright
Host

goosegog

My first suggestion is The Triumph TR8, the only real performance car Triumph ever made, and they only managed that about 2 years before they went bankrupt. I own an 80 TR8 5-speed convertible (Drop Head Coupe in British Carspeak). It has a 3.5L all-aluminum V8 derived from an early 60's Buick design and still used in larger capacity versions in Land Rovers and Range Rovers. It is also the basis of the current Buick V6. Engine parts are readily available, in some cases over the counter.

The body is the same as the TR7 which had a 4-banger so there are lots of parts available. But they are over 20 years old now and the TR7s are often rotted out.

The value part comes from the fact that only about 2,500 TR8s were ever made, and all the VINs are on record, in some cases with engine and transmission numbers and even the geographic location of the car. So no-one can make an 8 out of a 7 without the evidence being there.

My second suggestion is the AMC Pacer. I had a 232 inline six in lemon yellow for 7 years. It attracted as much attention as my turquoise TR8!

grbeck

The "collector car market" is just one part of the larger old car hobby. I don't believe you can value a car based only on its auction price or potential for appreciation.

Let's face it, most people will never attend an auction where Ferraris and other exotica trade hands for seven figure sums. They will, however, likely attend an Antique Automobile Club of American (AACA) event or small car show at the local restaurant. What will be there? Preserved versions of everyday cars - either low mileage originals or models restored by a talented individual on his or her own time.

I remember attending a car show featuring an immaculately restored 1957 Rambler Deluxe sedan. The owner restored it himself, and he did a first-rate job. Will it ever sell for six or seven figures? No. Will they ever drool over it (or another Rambler) at Pebble Beach? No. Will celebrities suddenly flock to 1950s Ramblers, making them chic? Highly unlikely, although there is no accounting for reverse snobbery. But I enjoyed seeing it and admiring the owner's work. Other showgoers enjoyed seeing it, too, with many remarking "I haven't seen one of those in years," or "We had one like that." If anything, Ramblers and other mundane cars tend to get a more positive reaction than the exotics.

To me, that is the heart of the old car hobby - preserving our past. And for most of us, our past (and present, for that matter) holds Chevys, Fords, Toyotas, Buicks and Hondas, not Vipers, Ferraris and Aston Martins. In that sense, every car is a collectible, because it reflects the time and place were it was made and sold. If anything, I would argue that everyday cars more accurately reflect the wants, aspirations and needs of the society that wanted, bought and used them.

Mr_Shiftright

I don't argue, although your argument does have a persausive sentimental quality that I like....but some things are just things and aren't worth preserving for history, because there is nothing worthy in them...they were meant to be used and thrown away....their value was in their utility, and once that's used up, there's really nothing left in them....restoring a Rambler is like restoring a shovel....great, but so what? Better to preserve the old clock....maybe in 300 years a Rambler would be nice to have around, but I kind of think no one will care as long as really interesting cars are preserved. So the guy with the Rambler gets some good therapy, god bless him, but he really hasn't done anything for history except remind us of how some cars became rather artless and funless appliances.

But I'll tip my hat to any Rambler that got a family to work and kids to school...I just won't bother pretending to admire it as an object...it was it's former use I respected, but that's over with now....like the empty can of paint.

isellhondas

I disagree, Shifty.

Yeah, that old Rambler, from a practical point wasn't worth the effort or money.

Still, it must have realy meant something to the guy who did the work. It also sounded like it received a lot of positive reactions from the people who attended the show.

Although I wouldn't have done that, I do applaud those who do restore cars like that.

Just listening to those comments..." Ah....look at that Rambler...grandma had one of those...it was her last car and she loved it"

That makes it worth the effort, at least in my book.

Mr_Shiftright

I don't know, it all sounds pathetic to me...why waste your time...that guy could have restored a car worth preserving, so while a '67 Camaro is being crushed behind his back he's messing around with a car nobody cares about except him and 3 other people in America. IT sounds completely foolish and pointless to my way of thinking. An ego trip gone bad.

And besides, it will never be collectible or historical so it'll end up in the junkyard anyway...you think the family is going to file a lawsuit for possession of a Rambler?

grbeck

"Ego" and "Rambler" in the same post? That's a first! If the old car hobby becomes limited to seven-figure exotics and limited production vehicles, then it's finished. It won't survive too long if it becomes a rich man's (or woman's) hobby.

As for family members fighting over a restored Rambler - it may have a sentimental value that goes beyond dollars and cents. Who knows - maybe that car is the children's (or grandchildren's) one link to dad. If everything had been judged solely by dollar value, probably about half of today's collectibles wouldn't even have been built in the first place.