Future Collectibles--Make Your Prediction

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Comments

  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    1. 94-96 Impala SS w/ 350 - limited production with '60's style size and power.

    2. '98-99 New Beetle TDI's (depending on future fuel uses) While common in Europe, these amazing little engines will be around in 20 years (given maintenance).

    3. PT Cruiser - Chrysler can't produce enough of them and people (today) will say "too slow" "just for looks" and demand will decrease in 2 years. In 20 years we'll look back on how the German management bungled it, and we'll say "that 2.4 L wasn't much but it could last over 200K miles (ala 2.2 liter from the k-car period).

    4. Hyundai Sonata - Open Q on reliability - jury's still out but I think this may be a good risk to make.

    5. Cadillac SLS / STS - sleeper vehicle with a great (world class) engine. And I hate GM products.

    6. New Chrysler Sebring - this Normal, Ill Mitsu / Chrysler mix breed will be a low seller but looks strong built (risk - reliability and must have the 6 cyl).

    7. Jeep Cherokee - only if they drop the straight 6. I understand a new model is coming out (Liberty?) Are changes in the wind?

    8. Mercury Grand Marquis - Last American rear wheel drive 8 cyl. I think soon to be drop (?).

    9. Any Plymouth that makes it 20 years (brand name is done).

    10. Lastly, should I dare say the Pontiac Aztek???? Ugly cars usually have a place in some car collectors heart. Today we'll say, "I'd never buy that thing." Tomorrow, when it didn't sell, we'll say, "It was ugly but that's what gave it character!!" What do you think??
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    I'd say you might be right on one car on the list, the Impala SS, because it is already has a small cult following that is very active, and the resale prices are quite good for a car that less than a decade old.

    The others on your list...well, who knows what the future will say...but generally I think your list violates the historical precedence for what makes a car collectible. First it has to be "hot" the day it comes out (no collector car ever made it big if it was spurned at introduction); so that eliminates some of the choices you've posed to us; secondly, no Japanese coupe/sedan has ever made it to collectibility of any serious nature, and they've had 30+ years to try. So I don't see how a Korean car is going to succeed anytime soon; thirdly, it is the rare mass-produced car that makes a collectible, and the few that did were really "red hot" when they came out...Mustang, Camaro, T-Bird, GTO...these cars were made in the thousands but still are valued today (not BIG money, but they are valued).

    I think your list is well thought out, but that the cars are mostly way too ordinary, except for your choice of the Impala. Possibly the PT Cruiser could work out, as it is very popular right now. I can't see a diesel anything ever being collectible.

    Of course, I could be all wrong, but history is on my side. Then again, I never would have thought someone would pay $1,000 for a Barbie doll, so what do I know for sure?
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    Have you been smoking something??
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    Mr. Shiftright,

    Seeing your vast experience throughout many of these posts, I could agree with your statements. Some counterpoints:

    1. Would you had considered a 1968 - 1972 VW Bug a collectible in 1968 - 1972? Probably not.

    2. One I shuddered to add to my list was the Honda Civic / CRX. They are being tricked out today and these kids will sit in a bar someday at the age of 45+ saying, "Remember how we added that chip to make xx more HP in my Civic? What a killer car." Improbable, look at the slant 6 following for Mopar post!!

    3. Datsun created the 240 / 280 Z cars which I think are collectible and japanese.

    4. The 300M (banker's hotrods) I don't believe were sought after when they were introduced but I do believe are sought after today, in certain configurations.

    5. Diesel engines have not caught on because they're only offered in limited circumstances, for example:
    - A Dodge Cummins Diesel which will tow a small house but costs $30 - $40 K (not obtainable / affordable for most).
    - Any major pick-up manufacturere (Ford / GMC, etc) for that matter.
    - A Mercedes $ 35K plus car (again unattainable for most).
    - A negative feeling about Diesel and it's soot / sound.
    - And then you have the VW 1.9L. Given a chance, an economic downturn and an offering in a car suitable for the general populace, this engine could propel a following. Ask any of those Rabbit diesel owners who obtained 200 - 300K out of the 80's (dirty) diesels whose cars rusted before the engine gave out (the same case for the unpopular but loved 225 Slant 6 Mopar).

    Thanks for the kudos on the thought process - I've taken a slightly different veiw on collectibles. I think of them as rare items rather than loved items by most (i.e. 65 Mustangs, Camaros, Trans Ams and the like). I also limit them to attainable cars (i.e. forget the Porshe's, Lamborgini's, Ferrari's, etc. I may even include Corvette's, however, they're still Chevy's (sorry, real dislike for GM). I currently own a '90 Pontiac Grand Am. Except for blemishes, this car is running fine. I'm forced to drive it due to wife (she refused and now drives our 318 Jeep Gr. Cherokee!! what a trade-off). I will not drop a car before it's time. This grand am has 129K on it and is still pumping it out. I know more than I want to know about it due to fixing soooo many times. I know it's quirks, etc. but I have to say, it keeps on running. I can't kill anything right!!! With this said, you could make a case that the 90's Grand Ams are collectibel since they sell so many of them but I wouldn't call it one!!

    I've gotten off track. I agree with you - ebay has taught us that anything can become a collectible (that 'eye of the beholder' thing). Harley- Davidson has taught us that a brand name placed on a Christmas ornament manufactured last week (or any other product, for that matter) can build a 25% profit in it with instance nostalgia including that HD Barbie for $1,000 (wait a minute, $1,250 with HD on it!!) you crave for (just kidding).

    One car I seek is a '67 - 68 Plymouth Fury II Sport with a 318 or above in it. A collectible?? Hardly. Cleaned up, running smoothly and with a great paint job, collectible in my book!!! I'd also settle for Dart's etc with a slant 6. Or a early 70's Beetle. Now you know I don't know what is collectible!!!!!!!
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    I mean the current Sonata. Have you taken a look at it? Hyundai is at a crucial point. There sales are up, Sonatas are slightly in demand (especially the v-6). They are staring to become more reliable and have been selling like hotcakes. If the current cars can prove their reliability, and I think they can, you will have a strong following in about 6 years. I think Sonata owners will look back at 2000 and 2001 models and remember the value they received for teh money they paid, trust the reliability and pay more later. Look at the VW Bug of the 50's and 60's, the Honda Civic's and 280 Z's of the 70's. Remember, the Bug was for basic transportation (and became one of the best, if not the best, selling car in the world). Remember the Civic - that little bulb that was [non-permissible content removed] crap, who's laughing now? And the 280 Z - need I say more?

    I had to take a chance - the sales numbers can't be wrong!!!
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    But that's O.K. I would personally put any Korean car at the very bottom of any Future Collectable list.

    But, I do think Hyundai has come a long way...they HAD to do something. Time will tell. The resale on anything Korean is terrible.

    I also wouldn't consider a '68-72 Volkswagen to be much of a collectable. They are still pretty much a dime a dozen car. I would lean more toward the pre '68 models. Those are the ones the VW people treasure the most.

    I really didn't see anything on your list that I would agree with but, hey, who knows?

    I STILL think the 79-91 Mazda RX-7's will someday be much sought after. Shifty has a different opinion.

    Only time will tell!
  • ndancendance Member Posts: 323
    Just because a car has a following doesn't seem to mean much. On the web, there's communities for Dodge Diplomats, early Celicas, Buick Apollos
    - speaking of which, since Nova == N.ova/A.pollo/V.entura/O.mega do you suppose that the Cadillac version is called a Seville so they could spell 'Novas'?
    -

    I have a reasonable definition. If the car is desirable enough to be worth more (in #2 condition) than it was when new (including correcting for inflation) its a 'collectible'. If the definition is that people own more than one of that model, then the Citroen nuts will rule the world.
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    I happen to love old Chevys, 1948-1954's.

    They aren't "classics" and they are nothing special. I guess they bring back memories of my first beater, a 1952 Chevy that I bought for 35.00.

    So...maybe that Hyundai will bring back similar feelings for someone else 35 years from now!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    I think the reason we use price as a criteria for "collectibility", rather than just saying "Well, if Ralph collects Ford Pintos, then they are collector cars".

    Now the price factor isn't meant to say that money determines the merit of a car, but it does point out to one factor in the collecting of anything...that when the demand for something exceeds the supply, the price goes up considerably. If the supply and demand are about in balance, or in stasis, then there is a price on the object, but it doesn't vary much and rarely goes very high.

    My point here is that many cars are "collectible", in that someone will always give you *something* for them, because they are old, or funny-looking, etc., but not that many cars are "collector" cars in the sense that the demand is driving up the price.

    There are tons of '72 VW bugs around, and *some* buyers, but certainly there's enough of a supply of those things to keep the price down for a long, long time. You'll have gray hair before the price of a Hyundai Sonata goes up, because it is mostly an appliance car with no personality whatsoever. Competent and a good value it may be, but it has ZERO character....which is a big factor in making a car desirable to a collector.

    So money does talk in a way...maybe people do collect early Celicas, but they'd be lucky to get $1,500 for their pride and joy...what that tells me is that their desire for the car is not enough to overcome the fact that very few people really care about such a car...only them and a few hundred others around this big wide country of ours.

    So there's "collectible" and REALLY collectible I think.

    300M? Just another cookie-cutter mass produced car, although a reasonably attractive one that will always find a home if the price is right.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    My first paragraph didn't make sense...should read:

    "I think the reason we use price as a criteria for "collectibility", rather than just saying "Well, if Ralph collects Ford Pintos, then they are
    collector cars",--the reason we use price is that price is a great indicator of buyers' real interest and passion, balanced against the supply at hand to satisfy that passion and interest."
  • ndancendance Member Posts: 323
    That was sort of my implicit point. That price (especially increasing price over time) shows a supply/demand relationship implying collector value. Using my definition of appreciation vs. original purchase price, for example, very few well-known muscle cars really fall into this category. A quick example is, say, 442 convertibles. A really nice '70, 455, convertible seems to sell for, oh, 15k. The original purchase price was probably just under 4000 dollars. Seeing as how we've probably had 5:1 inflation in 30 years, they have actually (albeit slowly) depreciated. OTOH ZL1 Camaros, at around 7000 new are now 100k or so. I think in the long run, the only 60's and 70's American cars which can be viewed as real collector's items will be the very limited edition race cars (the Hurst built hemis for instance) and very limited run, desirable option mixes (hemicuda convertible, LS6 convertible, Transam convertible, hemi Challenger convertible, hmmm.. I think there's a pattern here). In general there were just to darn many of everything built to be very rare.
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    started here. Another point made here:
    Old cars currently have collectible status, that really shouldn't, because the economy is good and people can buy the toy they always wanted. When times are tight and people are worried more about food than fun, many of these cars will fall to the side, including those on my list. I agree with ndance about inflation / price index of some of these old cars. Depreciation must be factored in, though, as most, if not all, mass produced cars depreciate. The only vehicle I know of today in mass production that appreciates are Harleys, and that has to stop sometime. If you take this into consideration, being able to find a VW Bug in good condition for $7,000 and up really shows there is appreciation and value attached to old cars. Also, commanding this price with technological advances in cars today makes the price astronomical. If all had this viewpoint, old cars would be worth nothing. Why do they hold value then? The memories / emotions attached to them. We all have memories attached to these items as they become part of us. How do you know when your car has value? The first time someone asks, "Is it for sale?" As soon as we hear that, the price jumps a few percentage points.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Yes, much of what you say makes sense, but over the years I've learned that there are two things that DON'T determine the value of an older car:

    1. The asking price of the car. A high asking price, or even one weird very high REALIZED price, no more determines the overall market or collectibility of a car than a low asking price or realized price does. What we need is an evaluation of a large number of proven sale prices before we know if we have a hot item here.

    2. Someone asking to buy it. As soon as you say "yes", the last thing you see is a checkbook coming out. In 99% of the cases, the person asking to buy your old car is giving you a compliment, but not making a serious offer. Again, this is "dream money", not real dollars changing hands.


    I think the point about how prosperous times inflates prices is well taken. As soon as the economy takes a dive, the first thing to dive with it are luxury items and toys. Collector cars are sold off along with the Harley toys. But for now, it's hard to argue with the axiom--"A car (bike) is worth what someone is willing to pay for it".

    And of course all our tastes vary. I wouldn't give you $50 for a Harley (not a very good motorcycle) but someone else would fork over $15,000 in a red hot minute. Go figure. And they'd think my red Alfa was too small and too slow to be worth much.

    Ultimately, a good stretch of time sorts out the trends and fads from the real collector cars/bikes. We know for certain now which cars from the 1950s are the valuable ones, but we don't know that about cars that are say 15 years or newer.

    All we can do is guess based on what has happened in the past. Perhaps now, with more wealth spread around, mass-produced cars will be collected more readily because there is a large body of buyers with the cash to buy them and who really want them.

    On the other hand, with so many new models and new improvements coming to market every year, maybe these 1990s cars will just be thrown away. I can say that many modern cars will be very very difficult to restore in the future.
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    I would hate to see a crowd of bikers at your door!

    Your point No 2 is well taken. Over the years, I've owned a number of "Special Interest" cars. I found many business cards under my wiper blades..." If you ever want to sell this, call me.."

    And, I got stopped in parking lots, car shows, etc. I would keep the cards and phone numbers.

    When I decided to sell my 1953 Buick Super (45,000 miles), I had eight people to call.

    The usual response went like this....

    " Uh...'53 Buick eh....OH YEAH! last summer at the Texaco station. Well....I don't think I'm in the market now....etc...more b.s..."
  • ndancendance Member Posts: 323
    Not only are there numerous design changes per model-generation but the generations seem to be stacking up faster than before (perhaps use of computer-aided design is largely to blame). In addition, just the raw number of parts in a car has got to be 3x that of 40 years ago. Just imagine the job it'll be to restore a 75% complete, rust bucket Syclone in 25 years. Even now I bet it's quite the job for Year One to justify oddball castings, trim items etc. for the less well covered high performance cars (post 1970 Roadrunners for example). I also wouldn't be amazed to see wrecking yards hold onto cars for a shorter amount of time before crushing due to lack of market, labor expense in fixing late model cars vs. just getting a new one, and environmental/beautification rules.
  • ndancendance Member Posts: 323
    my current bet is that the 'easy money' flowing through the economy is due to come to halt in the coming year. It's pretty obvious that the wealth effect caused by high paper gains in the market has driven the current manias for things like SUV's, Harleys, first gen Camaros (for what it's worth), and homes in the South Bay (San Francisco, that is). When everybody starts rushing for the door, most of that wealth will return from whence it came, and I expect that prices for these kind of goods will fall accordingly. (To get to the historical norms, the DOW should be at what, 7500 or so? ,and I'll bet that NASDAQ needs to settle to sub 1000(!) to return to historical P/E's (25?). Hang on to your hats.

    As a footnote. The Harley deal really cracks me up. What you've got (as far as I can tell) is a bunch of middle aged, moneyed guys who haven't owned a bike for years (if ever) dropping 20k (is this close?) on a fashion statement. The wife is usually bribed into the whole deal by purchase of vast quantities of fringed leather clothing. If they're after a second childhood, I'd recommend a fitness coach.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Actually I like bikes a lot and have ridden them for many years--but like everything else, I have my preferences. I think Harleys are way overpriced for what you get.

    But I do own some Harley stock, because I think their marketing is way more brilliant than their products. What they did basically was fire their customers and get a whole new demographic! Whereas few people wanted the Cadillac image (who wants to pay money to be looked upon as a "mature driver"?), Harley has cashed in on the "outlaw" image.

    Only in America does being a revolutionary and an outlaw cost $15,000 minimum, plus clothing, $10 helmet and fright wig.

    The Harleys that are possibly worth what you pay might be the show bikes, which, though aesthetically are not to my tastes, are often done with lots of skill and artistic talent. At least there you can see the value in human effort--like with shipmodels or hotrods.
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    I hope you are wrong about the stock market!
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    I hope you will admit that NOTHING sounds like a
    Harley! A Japanese bike may be "better" and faster, but to me, anyway, they are an also ran.

    And those Harleys hold their resale better than anything else too.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    You mean nothing sounds as obnoxious as a Harley....yep, I'd agree with that. (not really the company's fault--many owners must take out the baffles..the noise is really punishing and it sounds like a washing machine with basketball hi-tops stuffed in it.)

    Yeah, resale value is good on Harleys I think...I'm not up too much on bike values. Well, all that means is that you can fool much of the public most of the time.
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    It may be unpopular to say this, but why are harley owners allowed to drive on the street with exhaust systems so loud! Automobile owners don't do this. Why should i have to listen to that?
    Isn't it illegal?
    If you think that i am just sensitive to it, i own a iroc-z and play the drums.
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    If they are too loud and for good reason.

    Then they re-install the baffles and go get it inspected. Once the fix it ticket is cleared, they pull the baffles again.

    We used to do that with old Chevys. Split the manifolds, run one straight pipe and an 18" glasspack on the other.

    NOTHING made sweeter music especially coming down a hill in second gear.

    The muffler shops made lots of money installing our stock mufflers long enough to get the ticket cleared, and then putting the other stuff back.
  • carnut4carnut4 Member Posts: 574
    about the loud Harleys. When I replaced the 265 in my 55 Chev with a 327, the glasspacks immediately got MUCH louder [so sweet!] and I got a ticket and had to put on stock mufflers. But they were NOTHING compared to the Harleys that blast off from the biker bar in town where I live now. They ARE deliberately obnoxious. Funny how the cops just sit there and ignore them, looking for DUI drivers with faulty turn signals... Actually, I liked the sound of my '70 Triumph Bonneville 650 with the TT pipes. Now there was a sweet sounding bike!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    There's exhaust "music" and then there's just a racket. I guess the cops and the Harley riders are "brothers" in some perverse fashion. Oh, well, maybe I"ll just worry about global warming instead or radioactive food supplies.

    To bring the subject back to collectibles + noise, if you ever want to hear the most amazing engine sound of your life, try to get a recording of a BRM V-16 Grand Prix car.
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    In '73 or '74 my neighbor across the street bought a brand new green Rolls Royce. That car was so quiet that it literally whispered down the road!!
    You could not hear the engine, just the tires.
    He still has it, I wonder what it is worth now.
    Any ideas Mr. Shiftright? To me, a quiet luxury car is more impressive than a loud musclecar.
    The Packard straight 8 is one smooth engine too.
    Probably not as sweet as a V-16 though.
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    There was much ado about Harley w/o a 'supporter' (weak one in isellhondas). Again, it's a good economy and the Harleys bring the riders to a more simpler time. I also have another theory. When was the last time you 'suped-up' something??? Was probable on a '60's era car, maybe sometime int he past. When was the last time you suped-up something that was maed after 1990? You're not going to update much, unless you call your local computer nerd to upgrade it. And how much would it remind you of a '50's or '60's style car? On most of the recent Harleys, you can make changes on it, rip it down, bore it out, etc. AND, as mentioned on the Chevy, make it sound loud. When a Chevy does it, it's o.k. But a Harley is not? Yeah, it's loud, but even to your own point, Mr. Shiftright, all of those buyers can't be wrong. Are Harley's collectible? Yeah. The only issue I have with it is they're collectible the day they're sold from the dealer!!!!!

    Other than this theory, it is a statement of individuality, much like the statements made from the VW New Beetle or the PT Cruiser. There is nothing really special about these cars other than their shape. I did own an original Beetle and the new one only likes like it. Is it a collectible based on it's sales figures? I do like the fact that VW went to such lengths for safety and originality as well as that neat 1.9L turbo-diesel. What a great idea - I wish America would listen.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    I like your simplicity theory better than your inviduality theory, because there's really little individuality in buying some mass-produced car or motorcycle.

    Yeah, sometimes I do get nostalgic for a car that I could take apart completely in my basement. But most often the truly collectible cars are not the "simple" ones.

    I drive a diesel (one of three cars I own) and I like them, but I don't think most Americans do.
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    Mr Shiftright tried to get us back on topic, but i can't let jabilda's post go by without comment.
    The fact is that you rarely hear really loud cars any more. But ear shattering Harley's are all around. There is no reason why my Sunday afternoon
    should ruined by ten or more illegal motorcycle's driving down my street. Why is that they never let their bikes idle, they are always goosing the throttle. This will be my last post on the harley noise issue, and by the way i used to ride off road so i do not have any problems with motorcycles.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    That's because they CAN'T idle...or at least they didn't used to be able to, until they installed (gasp!) FIAT-made fuel injection....yes, it's true, go look next time. It says "Marelli" right on there somewhere.
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    Fix
    It
    Again
    Tony

    Fuel injection???!!

    What's next? Lucas electricals?
  • lokkilokki Member Posts: 1,200
    Japanese switchgear..... Or was that first?
  • carnut4carnut4 Member Posts: 574
    another Harley loping at the curb. Would I have the guts to tell the huge gorilla dude he's got Fiat parts on his rig? Or I could just say I think his Harley sounds like an old Ford flathead running on two cylinders and no muffler...
    Thanks for the info Shifty. I'll have to check out that BRM V12 sound. I had an old drag racing record in the early 60's--one part I used to play over and over-it was a high revving, blown small block Chevy in a B/gas coupe, winding out through one of those old B&M hydramatics. I just about drove everyone nuts one Thanksgiving. But now, I have a MUCH BETTER sound system! Thanks for the tip.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Actually, that FIAT system is pretty good. With the new Harley engine and Japanese/Italian accessories over the past few years, it's become a better motorcycle, so no harm done.

    The idea of "hybrids" of various degree goes back a long way in automotive and motorcycle history. Companies have always shared technology in order to put out a more competitive product. The problem with "hybrids" as collectibles is that somehow they aren't viewed as "pure"...case in point the Italian hybrids, like Iso, Pantera, Fiat Dino, etc...they suffer in the marketplace for using other manufacturer's engines and sometimes drivelines
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    Why do the British drink warm beer?




    Because they have Lucas refrigerators!
  • dgraves1dgraves1 Member Posts: 414
    Fiat Dino has suffered in the marketplace? Really? Doesn't that have a Ferrarri engine in it? I would have thought that was a real solid collectible. Maybe I have it all wrong.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Oh, it's valuable in a fashion, but it can't bring Ferrari money...if it had the horse on it, it would be worth much more. The Fiat badge holds it back.
  • speedshiftspeedshift Member Posts: 1,598
    Hey, I've got that drag racing sounds record too. I'd always loose track of which engine was which after about the eighth or ninth cut.

    I always wondered about that lopey Harley idle. I remember there being something weird about the firing order. Is that it?
  • carnut4carnut4 Member Posts: 574
    run on Bacardi 151-that's why they sound the way they do. Their owners sip off a line from the fuel tank, and that's why they sound the way they do-like their Harleys...ooh, excuse me! Off topic again.
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    is abundant here. I don't understand our society. Harley was 'hurting' in the '80's and everyone wanted them to win. Now that they have 'won,' everyone wants them to lose. They captured the spirit of America. If you don't like the image or don't want to be attached to it, it's your choice. It seems to me that people are interested in the idea of the American cowboy - and Harley captured the modern image of it along with the nostalgia thing.

    As well, I love the posts that begin "and last about Harley because we need to 'get back on topic'..." - the image and success of Harley has you so bothered that you must make your statement of how you disapprove; and then move on. You are the same individuals that curse Howard Stern but are tuned into him every morning. The point being that you still acknowledge it.

    Points about Harley:

    1) They do not come from the factory load - and if you ever worked at a dealership, as I have, the mechanics will tell you that straight pipes only make them loud. The engines were not designed for straight pipes. Consumers change them for the image.

    2) They are successful for a reason - whatever it may be, inferior engine or not.

    3) Those bothered by a loud noise passing by for less than 20 seconds being bothersome to someone, outside of those that need the rest (i.e. babies, etc.), should examine themselves. Are you bothered by ambulances, police cars, cars with cherry bombs, Civics / VW's with the sport-tuned exhaust (need I go on). They should receive the same objection. Harley can only build so many of them and there are not many of them out there.

    4) If you really hate them that much, complain to your senator. I'd love to see the voter returns on a politician that goes up against an American icon.

    5) There is a motorcycle website that has a subject area which always experiences the same results - subject about Harley - always 100 + posts with the same posts. "I hate Harley because they're inferior pieces of crap". And, of course, "My Harley is great." Subject about all else - at times will reach 100 +; usually when someone mentions "Harley" in them.

    Why begrudge them of what they earned? They bring people together in positive ways versus the image they had in the past - why try to kill it? Lastly, you blame the whole Harley population for what a few choose to do with their Harleys. This is the same as stereotyping those for their ethnic background.

    I can't wait for the response from my post - if you're really dedicated to the topic, I'll be surprised if no one responds to it. Let's see!!
  • isellhondasisellhondas Issaquah WashingtonMember Posts: 20,350
    I'm probably the guy who got this topic diverted and I apologize.

    This is light hearted banter...relax!

    Now....Future collectables! What do you think?
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    I obviously touched a nerve jabilda.
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    Back on Topic! I have a 1987 Z-28 Camaro (IROC)
    that i special ordered. It was the first year for the TPI motor and 5 speed. It has 4 wheel discs,
    limited slip, 3.45 rearend with oil cooler. It is a low option car with crank windows, but does have a/c, cloth interior and am/fm cassette.
    The car currently has 198,000 miles.
    I estimate it is worth $2500-4000 now. It needs a new interior.
    What is its collectible future, should i restore it and leave it stock ,or put Y2k running gear into it?
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    My camaro also has never been hit, no dings, had a bare metal repaint by GM in 1993, and is bright blue metallic w/ gray custom cloth interior. The paint is perfect except for the front bumper.
  • varmitvarmit Member Posts: 1,125
    I think that Shifty is right about there being a difference between "collectibles" and what I'd call "mass collectibles". For example, I just looked at a Fiat X1/9. This car has a dedicated following and people are definitely collecting and restoring them, but it doesn't hold a candle to the following and demand for MGs or Alphas.

    The demand is the key and there are many reasons for a car to achieve "demand". They all boil down to values. These values create the necessary spark in the collector's imagination. I'd categorize them in the following manner:

    Antique value - Simply being old. (Like the Model T.)

    Nostalgia - Having a link to a large group of people. (Like the muscle cars found at Detroit stop lights.)

    Rarity - Simply being scarce. (Low production is only one example. The car might've been mass produced, but hard to find in good shape.)

    Singularity - Maybe "uniqueness" is a better word. Cars with interesting technology, styling, or history. (Like the Edsel.)

    Performance - Duh.

    Of course there are probably categories that I've neglected, but you get the idea.

    I just spent too much time reading the above posts and see a lot of cars that meet one or two of the above criteria, but I think the car needs to meet at least three or more of the above to even qualify. For example, the Edsel was designed with some interesting technologies (singularity), but it was a flop (performance) creating a negative public reaction (nostalgia).

    Then the car has to pass a reality check: Is it restorable? Can it be maintained, once restored? How much will the process cost?

    I can't think of a single modern car that would pass the reality check (perhaps the Wrangler, but only because it really isn't modern, is it?). As noted above, there are too many materials and technologies that are beyond the grasp of the average do it yourselfer.

    If there is a car that would fit into the value categories, it would be the Integra Type R. It has a strong link to autocross (as close as we can get to Detroit stop lights), it's a rare model with more than a cosmetic upgrade, Lord knows it can perform, and it's based on some pretty strong technology.

    It wouldn't be the hardest car to restore as many standard Integra parts could be used (there's enough of them around). However, the computer-gizmos and plastics would be a serious problem. Too bad really...

    Oh yeah, the new Imprezza WRX might be a good candidate based on it's performance, rally history, and relatively attainable price. Styling will hold it back though.
  • b4zb4z Member Posts: 3,372
    I agree with your analysis. The only mass produced car of recent vintage that falls into your category is probably the impala ss. They are still selling fairly close to their original price. The integra R doesn't have a/c, but 5-10 years from now will probably hold its value fairly well. Japanese cars are expensive to repair.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    A pretty good but not infallible guideline for truly collectible cars would be something like this:

    Does the car have (all 3) POWER, PRESTIGE, GLORY?

    As you can see, this puts most Japanese cars in jeopardy, doomed to "second-class" collectibility, like the Datsun 240Z---it's been 30 years, and you can still find really really nice ones for $7,500. This isn't exactly setting the collector car world on fire.

    So if the car has one characteristic, like POWER, it'll be worth say "one unit" and be desirable in terms of "one unit".

    If it has power and has won a lot of races, or maybe achieved an icon status through popular culture, movies, songs, etc. (IMPORTANT races), maybe two units for the"glory".

    Prestige is hard to come by, and probably, since the demise of Cadillac as a respected marque, no American car of the foreseeable future has much prestige going for it. But, say, a MErcedes Gullwing, it has prestige among people who don't even like Mercedes or even like cars for that matter. It also has glory from its racing days.

    So predicting collectibility and value is tricky stuff. About the best we could say about cars like the Type R and the Impala SS, is that although they have strikes against them (one is Japanese, the other a 4-door sedan), they do have POWER, and for that reason will resist the wrecking yard. So I'd predict they will have limited collectibility, like the Datsun 240Z, but will never be worth a lot of money, and ratty examples of either will not be restored because of that.

    Last of all, rarity may or may not be a factor: here's another rule of thumb:

    "Not all rare cars are valuable, but all valuable cars are rare".
  • speedshiftspeedshift Member Posts: 1,598
    This sure explains why the '65 GTO we're talking about in Musclecars is so popular. Power? Yes. Glory? Yes, it's got icon status, won lots of races, on and off the strip, had a song written about it. Prestige? Depends on the context. In the hi-perf context, the market seems to think that Chevy and Ford have the most credibility, then MoPar and Pontiac. Everything else is Brand X, rightly or wrongly. With Pontiacs it's GTOs and then everything else. The GTO is the only Pontiac I can think of that has so much image that people who don't necessarily care for Pontiacs, or even cars in general, still admire it. The '65 may or may not have been a world beater, but enough people think so to keep prices up.
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    Rarities in mass volume cars like any performance edition of sedans, such as:

    Ford Taurus SHO

    Neon R/T

    Omni Shelby Turbo

    Pontiac Grand Prix GTX (is that the correct model, or GTP?)

    '94 - '96 Impala (covered in prior posts)

    Hemi 300m (if they ever produce it)

    Original Cavalier Z24 (late '80's model, not current)

    Dodge Dakota 5.9l
  • varmitvarmit Member Posts: 1,125
    I owned an original Z-24. The boxy '86 model was the first. In '87, they added "bumps" to the hood (I always wanted to upgrade to that hood). Then in '88 it changed to the more popular body style. In '90 Chevy moved from the 2.8 to a 3.0. All of them were junk. I am certain these will never be collected.

    Speedshift - I always thought it was the Monkees that made those Pontiacs so popular :-)
  • jabildajabilda Member Posts: 47
    and check out your responses to Honda Reliability in topic #720 under Maint / Repairs (around Oct 2000). Someone questioned reliability of Hondas and you responded as if you were offended that someone would dare question it. I have read many of your posts and respected your opinion. You telling me to relax is like the pot telling the kettle it's black!!!
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