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Future Collectibles--Make Your Prediction

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Comments

  • ckymeckyme Posts: 1
    Does a 78 Pontiac, Bonneville, fully loaded in good condition have any current value? If not, will it have any value in the future?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Just a used car, ckyme, and personally I don't see any future for it as a collectible, no. As for value, something around $2,000 in good shape.
  • jjosephjjoseph Posts: 1
    Are you considering limited production Japanese cars, such as the Toyota 2000GT -- already considered a collectible, the Acura NSX, very limited production, and soon to be released Honda S2000? All of these cars meet the criteria for future collectibility (limited production, high-performance, trend-setting styling and features, technological benchmarks at the time of sale, high desirability, etc.) -- much more so than most of the mass-produced American cars you've listed...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    The 2000GT is about the only Japanese car that has achieved a collector status, but it is a very rare, hand-made car, and an exception to the rule. The NSX may well be collectible someday, as it certainly meets the criteria of exclusivity, graet performance, a high standard of engineering, etc...so it will probably be the first japanese car produced in quantity that will be a true collector car.
  • jwr2jwr2 Posts: 10
    My future classic is the mid to late 80's Chevy Monte Carlo SS with T tops. If I had the extra cash I would snap one up and hold on to it for a while. But of course drive it. I was a great crusin car !!
  • vhawavhawa Posts: 1
    I agree with jwr2 re: Monte Carlo SS. I am the original owner of an '85 SS and plan on keeping it forever. The new Monte Carlo's just aren't what they used to be. Neither are the new Impala's. What is GM thinking!?
  • elwood16elwood16 Posts: 1
    I personaly think that any of the old style BMW
    M cars (M3,M5,M6) will certianly become collector cars.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    They already have a certain collectible status, but since they don't look too different from regular BMW models (very subtle badging), they haven't pulled out way in front of regular BMW values. But I think in time, as their numbers decrease to do old age, collision, etc., they will become rare enough to command a considerbly higher price than their BMW brothers....right now, the difference between a 635CSi and an M6 is only about $5,000--that's perhaps a 25% premium over a stock car.
  • sbarersbarer Posts: 35
    Certainly the soon to be released BMWs will achieve ultra-collectible status. The $75,000 M5 sedan will most likely ignore the two doors are better than four valuation method. With near supercar performance, it likely will be considered the collectible "saloon" of the early 2000's.

    As for the new v8 powered Z (I can't remember the name (Z5,Z08...) with a $115,000 price tag, it's the 507 all over again.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Certainly the convertible is destined for greatness....but I'm still skeptical that a 4-door car of any sort will become a desirable rarity...the only one that even approaches collectibility (aside from say, very old coachbuilt, one-off Rolls) is the Jag 3.8 sedan of the 60s, and even that car is only in the $15-18K range after 35 years. But you can buy a Maserati Quattroporto for dirt, and say 1955 Chevy four-doors are being busted up for parts for the two doors and converts.

    But trends change, who knows for sure...it' all a supply and demand issue, ultimately.
  • kevinbkevinb Posts: 1
    You are talking about the upper end of the car market. The cars that will, in my opinion, be most collectable, will be the ones that the masses drove. Much like the '64-66 mustangs or the '55 Chevys. These also were the ones that made major changes in the auto industry of their times. So maybe we should look at what is most popular today and also made these changes in the thinking of the auto buyers opinions. The latest trend of today is the SUV's and the pickups. Maybe the Dodge Rams and Current generation of Suburbans or Jeeps. Although the Broncos and Bronco IIs have been popular for years.
    Of Course, the upper class of autos will be appealing to the same class of people who currently own them. I have read some stories of people buying 64 1/2 Mustangs buying them and immediately stashing them away in a garage because they knew thay would someday be collectable. Perhaps I studied history all of those years because we can learn from the past in order to copy or not make the same mistakes. You just don't hear many stories of people stashing away '78 Mercs.
  • rea98drea98d Posts: 982
    I think some of the more unique designs will become collectables. My friend has a fairly common 96 Taurus, and I have a gut feeling that her car will be a collectors item 30 years down the road, simply because of the Taurus's unique design. However, today's cars don't have near the durability or survivability they did 30 years ago, so any of our cars that make it to 2020 or 2030 will be sought after. Attrition rates will be high among our fiberglass sedans.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Well, that's an interesting point of view, thanks. Looking back at 30 year-old Ford 4-doors though, the trend so far doesn't support that any 4-door car will be collectible (except perhaps special-bodied coachbuilt cars), but as tastes change, one never really knows.

    What makes you think fiberglass is so perishable? There are lots of old Corvettes out there that resisted the ravages of rust (even though the frames did) on their bodywork and are thus with us today, whereas many a T-Bird bit the dust from rust. Of course, if you were just talking about collision damage, I could see where some fiberglass cars would just be thrown away, yes.
  • carnut4carnut4 Posts: 574
    A 96 Taurus a future collectible? Interesting, to say the least. I'd sooner vote for a '79 Imperial from Chrysler- not that there's anything much I admire there-but if you're talking unique-well-good god-those last ditch "Imperials" just have to be more unique, and less common,[hell,everything] more than those ugly, ellipsoid, and quite common Tauruses... Hey why not vote for the Ford Festiva? What a novel little hunk that is!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    If a car wasn't much loved when it was new, the chances of it becoming a collectible aren't very good--at least that's how it's been, almost without deviation, in the past. In fact, I'm trying to think of a car that was shunned by the public when new that is now sought after actively by a large and affluent audience, and I can't think of one.....now keep in mind that there were cars that people loved but didn't buy (e.g., the Avanti), so I don't mean "shunned" strictly in the marketplace sense, although that's part of being a failure as a new car. Also, there were cars that sold well that nobody particularly loved (e.g., the Taurus, except perhaps the early SHO), so that's another wrinkle. I think the key to future collectibility is a genuine affection or fascination with the car when it was new that didn't diminish over time (I'm thinking here of the Renault Dauphine, that everyone loved in the late 1950s for about 6 months, when it even outsold Volkswagen for a short stretch there, until they discovered what the car REALLY was about, and then shunned it mightily).

    You know, it's tough, if a car comes out and the world goes "Who cares?" to later try and build up interest in it...the momentum of collectibility is hard to build if it doesn't happen from the start, I think. As I recall (could be wrong), the '79 Imperial came out and dropped off the edge of the earth unnoticed, (except by some of our discerning Town Hall guests :) ) and so I don't know where the interest for this car is going to come from now.
  • carnut4carnut4 Posts: 574
    I was just kidding about the Imperial. There's a white one parked down the road in a driveway. Actually, it has decent lines, and could be OK with a good 318 and Torqueflite. Certainly better than those Cordobas. As for the Taurus, what if they came in coupe form, like the NASCAR racers? Speaking of 4-door cars,yesterday I saw a 78 Seville for sale. Local, 2-owner, 63000 mile car. Flawless interior , except for a little wear showing on driver's leather. Original vinyl roof perfect. Paint good. Asking 3400-not that I'd want it, but when I see an interesting car, I think someone should buy it. Iknow we,ve discussed this model before, but whadya think?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Again, a car like the Seville suffers from the "four-door blues"...as you can see, if a very very nice car like that only sells for $3,400 some 22 years later, it's prospects as a collectible are pretty nil....I will say, though, that they bring a little more money than the other Cadillac models in '78, and just about as much as a '78 Eldorado, which is still not big money....$5,000 seems to be all the money for them in show condition.
  • rea98drea98d Posts: 982
    Many of today's cars are plastic, no fiberglass as I said. (MY mistake. And yes, there are some fiberglass cars out there.) Plastics deteriorate when left outdoors for long periods of time, (just look at tail lights from early 80's Caddies) so thirty years down the road, we may not have many 1990's cars left. (My thoughts on it, anyway.) As for 4 door cars, a 1955 Chevy 4 door might not be worth as much as a coupe, but any car will be valuable as a collector once its old enough. Take the Model T, the Toyota Camry of the 1910's and 20's. Common popular car, but now that it's 80 years old, it's a collectors item.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Actually, I think the Model T proves that very old cars aren't always worth a lot...if you had bought one in 1915 and kept it in your garage, you'd be lucky to get $7,500 for it today, after 84 years! The problem with cars like the Model T (or '55 Chevy 4-door) is that they made a gazillion of them and there are still plenty around. Again, the value of old cars is ruled by supply and demand, and it seems to seek rarity, attractiveness and a certain "image" and "style". Right now, the 1960s coupe and converts are very hot, but you can't give away a 70s or 80s 4-door car. And I think in 85 years they won't be worth much more than they are now...at least as long as the coupes and convertibles survive. The whole idea of collecting, it seems to me anyway, is to have what is not readily available....you know, the "beanie baby" that's the hardest to get.

    Here's a case in point--- Hemmings Motor News has 31 Model Ts for sale and 3 1953 Cadillac Eldorado convertibles for sale...the 3 Caddys are probably worth close to the 31 Model Ts put together! How can that be? Again, simply supply and demand.
  • marsh2marsh2 Posts: 4
    Apparently no one has heard of the Infiniti M30 convertible. Only 2700 produced in 1991-92. V6 power/2 dr luxury/sports car performance/rear wheel drive/great looks. These cars will achieve classic status sooner than most. But, no one has ever heard of them.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Well, I've heard of them, they aren't all that much of a mystery, but you're right, you don't see them very often. Being ragtops, they will always be attractive to some buyers, but being Japanese makes it an uphill climb for them to become classics, since no Japanese car has ever achieved that status yet....but as some do (maybe someday the early Datsun 240Z, or the Mazda Twin Turbo will become collector's cars, and if so, they may bring up other cars with them).

    YOu can buy a nice Infiniti convertible these days for about $11k, which is a nice ride for that amount of money.
  • badgerpaulbadgerpaul Posts: 219
    A 58 Impala SS? I don't seem to recall such a car.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Reference works show the Impala as a sub-model of the Belaire line in 1958, not a separate model, and the SS option wasn't available until 1961 as a dealer-installed accessory. You could get a fuel-injected '58, though, which is a rare and valuable car today.
  • badgerpaulbadgerpaul Posts: 219
    When I was a kid, my mother's car was a 58 Impala and I remember that the title listed it as a Bel-Air.
  • glengleglengle Posts: 57
    I've just returned to this forum and am currently catching up on the latest posts. I found myself noticing that $$ = collectible status here. I have to disagree. While as an investment, value is the most important consideration, as a collectible it is not.

    An example would be the Ford F100 car show in Gatlinburg, TN each year. Eleventeen jillion people come out to show their trucks. They have little value as an investment, are not the "elite" vehicle of their time, no earth-shattering technology, etc. But people collect them. Same with aircooled VW's, etc. I tend to associate collectible with having a significant following of people who truly collect them. IOW, there is a market for restoration/customization, a network of clubs, etc.

    So it seems that given the criteria used to measure vehicles in this topic, a more appropriate title might be "Future Worthy Investments", not "Collectibles". Agree?
  • nomad00nomad00 Posts: 2
    Although it's a four door, a black 1996 Impala SS
    (a floor shift and tachometer were available that one year).
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Hi glengle,

    Well, the cars you mentioned do in fact have value, so that tends to support the theory that supply and demand dictate collectible car values and interest level just like they do for teapots and guns and whatever.

    I think there is a link between value and the level of people's interest, since the more and more people who want something that is finite in number and not made anymore (like old VWs or F100 trucks), the more the price will go up.

    Let's take a car that nobody or almost nobody wants...Hillman Minx 4-doors. Now, there may be a few people who collect them and take them to shows, so we call those "special interest" cars (it's a polite name that means very little except that the car is a bit unusual), but the value is, and will remain, virtually nil...zero...a few hundred dollars.

    But old VWs...sure, they aren't priceless or worth big bucks, but you can get $6-7,000 for a well restored sedan and $30,000 for a mulit-window microbus.

    Some collectibles may be better investments than others, I will agree with you there, but anything actively collected usually has some value--the two are linked in a real way, i think.
  • glengleglengle Posts: 57
    I see your point. Now it's a chicken-egg situation. Which comes first, the real interest in the vehicles or the value? :o)

    Thanks for the time out to discuss.

    On topic, found a 1971 GS 455 convertible in the paper. Just says the engine has been rebuilt and is in good shape, nothing more. Expecting it to need paint ($2K), top ($1K), interior ($1K). Think the asking price of $5000 is reasonable?

    Take care,

    Greg
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Well, the price is okay, but given the ultimate value (around $10,000), you might as well just go buy a finished one...they are on the rare side in 1971, but also not the car that the earlier ones were in terms of desirability (not yet, anyway). If it were a Stage One convertible, I'd say, yes, buy it at $5K, but if not, it's a marginal kind of thing....maybe worth a shot if it's a very original car. I am a bit surprised though, at your estimates for restoration, I've never seen a really good $2,000 paint job (acceptable, but not outstanding) or a $1,000 interior, but perhaps you're talking about less work than I'm thinking in my head (complete tear-downs, chrome off, windows out, bare metal respray).
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaPosts: 64,490
    Oh, on your chicken or egg question...I think the chicken, definitely...value comes from keen interest. I'd support my argument by pointing out that the most valuable classics today were all coveted and beloved the first day they came out (e.g. Jaguar XKE) in the marketplace, and unloved cars have, for the most part, remained unloved (e.g. Edsel). Of course, this idea has its variations, but in general I think this has been true.
This discussion has been closed.