U.S. Auto Market News and Reviews

Mr_Shiftright

We'd have to start buying things manufactured here, which is getting close to impossible.

I have no idea if an American car made in Mexico would fall under weak dollar or strong dollar influence.

berri

I wouldn't panic, I think the US wanted the dollar to drop a bit thinking it got ahead of itself.

fintail

I don't know how a weak dollar would benefit anyone other than some exporters, and the black money property speculators who have invaded some areas (like mine). With Jared pitching sales spiels to them, maybe that's it.

USD strength doesn't seem to impact car prices though, MB prices anyway seemed uniform through the Euro highs and lows of the past decade.

berri

It can tie into interest rates and many Fortune 500 companies actually get a quarter or more of their revenues from overseas. Manufacturers often hedge or absorb monetary changes to keep pricing from being nuts. However that can affect their financials. Commodities are more susceptible, but then maybe the traders in them use it as an excuse or cover to enhance their winnings or help shade some of their losses.

andres3

When gas reached $4/gallon everyone including UPS started tacking on "fuel surcharge" to their delivery fees. Does anyone know if those went away when priced dropped?

Mr_Shiftright

The fuel surcharge is just a scam to make more profit without making you think that they've raised prices. If you pay a 5% fuel surcharge on a $20 shipment, did it really cost UPS $1 in fuel to deliver your particular package? Hardly.

suydam

Another reason to love Amazon Prime.

tlong

Well Amazon IS destroying businesses left and right in this country. Part of me worries about that and part of me admires them, and Bezos in particular. This country has succeeded through innovation and even the car was disruptive if you were a blacksmith or stagecoach builder.

fintail

Most interesting thing is that Amazon is impacting business types (Sears, other big boxes) that impacted prior types (mom and pop general stores and independent single location department stores) in generations prior. Moronic executive leadership in the big box world hasn't helped, either - these guys can give the worst of the Big 2.5 suits a run for their money, if not simply outdoing them in every way.

fushigi

Amazon is basically the leading player among several that are forcing a retail transformation. As you mentioned, fintail, this is not about Amazon putting other companies out of business. It's about companies adapting to the Internet era and finding their place (if it still exists). Mom & pop shops have a role to fill but it isn't in selling what everyone else can sell at lower margins/with less overhead.

suydam

Mom and Pop are now selling on Amazon.

imidazol97

fintail said:

Most interesting thing is that Amazon is impacting business types (Sears, other big boxes) Nowho moved .h cheese.impacted prior types (mom and pop general stores and independent single location department stores) in generations prior. Moronic executive leadership in the big box world hasn't helped, either - these guys can give the worst of the Big 2.5 suits a run for their money, if not simply outdoing them in every way.

who moved my cheese.

berri

If Amazon keeps knocking retailers out of business I'd expect down the road they raise prices and their profit margins like most oligopolies or monopolies, meaning a good chance consumers end up paying more. Just look back to the 70's when GM and Ford had Chrysler on the ropes - ever increasing prices (it wasn't just regulation changes and in fact those regs helped hide it initially) for crappier quality vehicles. That's why I can't get mad about the Japan entering our market. Ironically, Detroit bitching to Congress for cover, instead of improving their products, led to the transplants by encouraging Japan to build US factories, which allowed them to get into the more choice bigger family cars like Camry. As for Amazon, to this day I can't believe the incompetence of Sears and their catalog experience not responding. Sears should have had a leg up in this area logistically and marketing wise.

fintail

Amazon has competitors (WM for one), I don't see a monopoly charge being anything but political (45 doesn't like WaPo-owning Bezos, knowing what the paper did to the last similar regime).

Sears really missed it, atrocious leadership. They played the role of Amazon ~120 years ago, and let it slip away.

berri

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. WM should have an advantage in soft goods and HBA, but Amazon should have a big leg up in hard goods. I think maybe the success of Costco (another one from your area) may decide the outcome. Of course the current younger generation might get more into store shopping down the road as well. Fashion and retail is like auto and airlines - don't like to invest in them (although Costco and particularly Amazon made some pretty wealthy and the Walton clan did alright as well).

suydam

What is different about Amazon is that almost anyone can sell anything through Amazon -- which means you can get anything you want -- in one day -- from one of their thousands of sellers. Totally different business model from a big box store. And returns are easy and free.

fintail

I think WM has external sellers too. I think Amazon's advantage is the media side of it - the music and movies and IOT stuff it has branched into, along with the "anything" ideal, and name recognition. Most people know the name and have a positive association with it. The latter helps automakers a lot as well - once a good rep is established and maintained, it can be very profitable.

Quite a few market changers have came out of this area in the past generation or two, we'll see if that will continue.

fushigi

Amazon has some local fleets and can, in some areas, deliver in an hour. And they have drop off locations (lockers) in strategic places like at local malls. Those can be used for dropping off returns as well to negate return s/h costs. They're really doing everything shy of a full B&M experience to gain & retain customers. And oh yeah, they're playing with B&M too. Who did this in the early 80s? Was it Microsoft who had the strategy embrace, extend, extinguish?

berri

Believe it or not, years back many department stores leased out some departments. Shoe departments in particular come to mind.

suydam

But still, you couldn't get any shoe, any size, within 2 days. It's the scope that makes Amazon different. These days if I need anything -- from replacing my Swiffer to supplements for my old dog to finding new bridge Kem cards to replacing sneakers I bought a year ago -- I first look in a few actual stores, and if I can't find it, I get it from Amazon. Free shipping and it arrives within 2 days.

berri

Amazon does do a very good job. Walmart and Costco are very consumer focused as well. None of these three have the hassles or restrictions of returning goods that some of their competitors do. That is another big reason why I shop with all three of them.

andres3

Wal-Marts hassle seems to come from lackluster employees that let the lines get long from unproductive work pace.

Costco's got long lines at times too, but you can tell people are working. Walmart is more like the DMV; it's clearly noticeable.

fintail

Regarding employees at WM vs Costco, pay and benefits can make a huge difference, and I suspect leadership is a key factor too.

I've found Amazon also invaluable for car care products.

imidazol97

fintail said:

Regarding employees at WM vs Costco, pay and benefits can make a huge difference, and I suspect leadership is a key factor too.

I've found Amazon also invaluable for car care products.

I've bought struts along with AC Delco brake parts on Amazon.

My experience with walmart is that it's even difficult to find things on their webite. I ordered something there a couple Christmases ago and picked it up in the store. No service due to poor employee and management.

fushigi

Service matters. I don't patronize Walmart unless I've little other choice. I average stepping into one maybe twice a year. At that level of discount department store I much prefer Meijer. The staff at our local store are generally pleasant to talk with.

Online is, I think, one of the major places that Sears failed. They've never had a good e-commerce setup. I think they tried to just extend their catalog/in-store POS (Point of Sale) system but the result was a POS (not Point of Sale).

berri

Don't get much service or short lines at Target either. Really, Macy's ain't great either.

circlew

Here is an update on GM's Ignition scandal!

Billion-dollar deal reached in ignition case, and GM is furious

Plaintiffs suing General Motors over faulty ignition switches and other alleged vehicle defects have reached a $1 billion settlement requiring the automaker to turn over that amount of stock, a lawyer for the plaintiffs said in a court hearing on Friday.

GM lawyer Richard Godfrey strongly criticized the agreement, telling U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman in Manhattan the Detroit-based company was given no say in the deal negotiated between the plaintiffs and a trust set up for creditors of "old GM," which holds many liabilities predating the automaker's 2009 bankruptcy.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/08/11/gm-ignition-switch-billion-dollar-settlement/?hcid=ab-around-ab-tile-8

Michaell

Given that we owned an ION that had the ignition problem, I wonder if, several years from now, we'll get a check for $27.45 and a coupon for parts or services at my local GM dealer.

andres3

fintail said:

I bet the leadership involved with that nightmare are all still employed and receiving pleasant compensation, too.

I wonder if WM and Target are paying the "internet tax" that a certain rotting pumpkin aims at Amazon. Sad.

Sometimes I wonder if some of the Execs at bailed out companies were pure genius and planned it all out. Bad for society, but good for the bottom line to be able to argue (though perhaps unsuccessfully) that your NEW "insert company name here" here isn't the OLD "insert company name here," therefore, you are not liable for prior claims and obligations. Bankruptcy too, has obviously been taken advantage of by many MBA's.

circlew

Foreign automakers over the past year have announced plans for a wave of new or expanded plants in North America, while Tesla is ramping up to build as many as 500,000 cars a year at its plant in Fremont, Calif. Often referred to as "transplants," the foreign-owned factories are poised to become the mainstream of the North American auto industry.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/27/detroit-three-loses-dominance-north-american-auto-output-2017/?hcid=ab-around-ab-tile-17

Perception?

andres3

circlew said:

Foreign automakers over the past year have announced plans for a wave of new or expanded plants in North America, while Tesla is ramping up to build as many as 500,000 cars a year at its plant in Fremont, Calif. Often referred to as "transplants," the foreign-owned factories are poised to become the mainstream of the North American auto industry.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/27/detroit-three-loses-dominance-north-american-auto-output-2017/?hcid=ab-around-ab-tile-17

Perception?

Darn that darn perception. Sort of like the perception Nintendo was always more fun than Sega.

Mr_Shiftright

circlew said:

Foreign automakers over the past year have announced plans for a wave of new or expanded plants in North America, while Tesla is ramping up to build as many as 500,000 cars a year at its plant in Fremont, Calif. Often referred to as "transplants," the foreign-owned factories are poised to become the mainstream of the North American auto industry.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/27/detroit-three-loses-dominance-north-american-auto-output-2017/?hcid=ab-around-ab-tile-17

Perception?

Tesla has a whole lotta "ramping up" to do. I'll believe that when I see it. They might devote some of their energy to making a profit.

berri

I think that 'perception" is more simply because D3 has more production in Mexico for the US market. Toyota actually exports quite a bit of what they make down there to places other than the US (with a few exceptions). I know GM does that too, but I think the percentage rate is lower.

tlong

In the news today that GM plans 20 electric vehicle models in next few years. This from the company that though hybrids were a joke, a few years ago.

suydam

Skipping directly to electric actually makes sense.

fintail

Given the prior half-hearted GM hybrids, maybe they just didn't care, and didn't want to devote real money to them.

On that note, I saw an Escalade hybrid recently, there's a rare bird.

Mr_Shiftright

Probably a good move, but don't count the ICE engine out.

tlong

fintail said:

Given the prior half-hearted GM hybrids, maybe they just didn't care, and didn't want to devote real money to them.

On that note, I saw an Escalade hybrid recently, there's a rare bird.

Well, hygrids first were a joke (to GM), then suddenly they had THREE types of hybrids:

Volt, Two-mode, and "Mild Hybrid". I think only one of those is left in production now?

fushigi

The US (along with most other developed countries) is simply not set up to support electrification of the fleet. Millions live in apartments or other housing where the parking situation does not reasonably support a charging solution. It would take many billions in build-out to get there. Even houses with a garage could have issues. The electrical demands of charging 2 EVs overnight may necessitate major upgrades like upping home service from 100 or 200 amp to 300. As communities/subdivisions go electric the power companies may need to upgrade the lines & substations serving the area.

That said, PHEVs and other hybrids can certainly raise CAFE numbers without such a massive buildout. A PHEV can take advantage of charging infrastructure when available but is perfectly fine without. Devices like Tesla's Powerwall can help mitigate some of the grid & home capacity issues.

This is a long road to travel and will take decades to come to fruition.

suydam

I think it will be less time than people think.

fintail

I think power grid issues are the elephant in the room that nobody wants to touch - especially in areas (like mine) which have experienced massive population growth in the past few decades. Then there's the charging infrastructure. Who will pay for it all, especially when EVs already get a significant tax break?

fintail

That's the only one that should have existed to begin with - one that actually has a marked improvement in economy. The others were answers to a question that nobody asked (save for marketers who dearly wanted to slap a "hybrid" badge on something)

tlong said:

Volt, Two-mode, and "Mild Hybrid". I think only one of those is left in production now?

iluvmysephia1

This is a long road to travel and will take decades to come to fruition.

It will depend on government support. And that is just not going to be there. I am not bullish on all-electric cars at all. Enjoy your ICE-engined cars, dudes.

suydam

We are already seeing how it will work in California. Most parking lots and shopping malls have charging stations now. Charging is something you do while running errands or eating at a restaurant. It's a very different way of doing things than getting all your gas or all your electric charging at one stationary place.

Mr_Shiftright

Hmmm...I"m not so sure. Aside from the infrastructure challenges, we have serious political obstacles, we have Sun Edison probably going bankrupt, we have a profitless Tesla, a slow-selling Bolt, and we have a large population swing into very dense metro areas.

It really doesn't look all that promising in spite of the surface appeal of it. After all, bottom line is that an EV will have to be cheaper to own than a "normal" car--otherwise it will remain a niche "toy". Claims that EVs are cheaper to run seem to break down when put under a rigorous scrutiny.

andres3

fushigi said:

The US (along with most other developed countries) is simply not set up to support electrification of the fleet. Millions live in apartments or other housing where the parking situation does not reasonably support a charging solution. It would take many billions in build-out to get there. Even houses with a garage could have issues. The electrical demands of charging 2 EVs overnight may necessitate major upgrades like upping home service from 100 or 200 amp to 300. As communities/subdivisions go electric the power companies may need to upgrade the lines & substations serving the area.

That said, PHEVs and other hybrids can certainly raise CAFE numbers without such a massive buildout. A PHEV can take advantage of charging infrastructure when available but is perfectly fine without. Devices like Tesla's Powerwall can help mitigate some of the grid & home capacity issues.

This is a long road to travel and will take decades to come to fruition.

Who has 100 amp service already? Maybe only 21st Century houses? I know my house built in 1960 had to be upgraded from a 40 or 60 Amp panel (can't remember which) to (I chose 200, though 100 would have been sufficient), for an AC system add-on.

fushigi

andres3 said:

Who has 100 amp service already? Maybe only 21st Century houses? I know my house built in 1960 had to be upgraded from a 40 or 60 Amp panel (can't remember which) to (I chose 200, though 100 would have been sufficient), for an AC system add-on.

People without central air. People with older homes that never saw the need to upgrade. Small homes & bungalows. Mobile homes. Apartments and smaller townhomes.

fintail

What's the EV part of the fleet in southern CA right now? 5% tops? Make it 50% and see what happens with infrastructure, I dare ya. I hope one doesn't mind waiting a few hours to juice up while on a short trip. Watch out for brownouts.

berri

The constraints are (as previously mentioned) electric grid and then battery technology, production, disposal and potential contamination/pollution issues with batteries.

andres3

fushigi said:

andres3 said:

Who has 100 amp service already? Maybe only 21st Century houses? I know my house built in 1960 had to be upgraded from a 40 or 60 Amp panel (can't remember which) to (I chose 200, though 100 would have been sufficient), for an AC system add-on.

People without central air. People with older homes that never saw the need to upgrade. Small homes & bungalows. Mobile homes. Apartments and smaller townhomes.

I think you missed my point

I'm pointing out that there are many houses with less than 100 Amp service. 100 Amp service would me a major upgrade. Luckily most of the cost is in the labor and permitting (in CA). 200 Amp doesn't cost much more than 150.