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By Mike Cianciolo
March 3, 2005
Honda (NYSE: HMC) has just suffered through a month it would rather forget. The automaker faced a daunting task in trying to match record-setting sales from a year ago, but its performance was disappointing nonetheless: U.S. sales dropped by more than 7% in February.
Car sales, which account for most of the company's sales, fell an even worse 16.5% from last year. Sales of the two models that compete to be the company's top seller both declined: The Civic reported a 34% drop, and the Accord fell 9.4%. The Civic suffers from an aging design, but Honda is working on a makeover that's due out in 2006 and will likely improve those numbers.
Honda's truck division, meanwhile, fared much better at a 7.5% uptick, even though the sales performance of the CRV and the unusual Element prevented even stronger numbers. The Odyssey led the charge, with gains topping 29%, and the Pilot also did well, with a 12.1% increase.
The Civic reported a 34% drop
Looks like the Civic has the same ailment the Suburban has, long in the tooth design. Hopefully they don't make it as ugly as the latest Accord.
Things break. It happens. It just isn't news unless it's a new technology that someone has decided is "unproven"
Steve
57000 trouble-free Prius miles
That is true. If it was a Camry no one would give a hoot. One of my reservations on the hybrids is all the additional electronics, sensors & controllers. Looking back at 15 years of repair bills on the 1990 Lexus LS400, the majority were computer module related. How many more modules does a Prius or RX400h have than a 1990 Lexus? Some on this forum seem to think that the electronics will last forever. I think computers are the best and the worst of modern cars.
As the price of oil goes up the notion that thrifty cars could be more popular seems rather more believable now and (on the other hand) monster SUV'S might find their owners wanting to UNLOAD.
Culliganman(it's getting serious--GAS I MEAN)
Example of a HUMMER fill-up 38 gallons @ $3.00 would equal $114.00 (that's breakin a C-note)
And increased prices and any economic slowdown means less jobs. So before you wish for something you might want to consider all the cosnsequences; none of them being good.
And by the way, oil could never stay any period of time above $90/barrel. There are billions and billions of tons of coal and tar sands that can be converted to oil and gas. It is just uneconomical to do so at this point. I saw the plans for these plants (Exxon) back in the early 80's when I was a Ch Engr. student. It would take a few years to build them and bring them on line.
We can produce all the oil and gas we need for at least 100 years; its just that natural oil is cheaper now.
Hybrids have shown that they ARE beginning to be accepted by all (well not all, (Gary) and there seems to be a new wind blowing and it's definitly being noticed by more new car buyers as the price of gas creeps up and people realize that cars are still just transportation from point "A" to point "B". O.K. I fibbed. I know that cars are different things to different folks but you know that the first part is basically true.
Culliganman(free us Prius)
As kernick has so aptly pointed out. $3 or $4 per gallon gas is not going to make any difference to the guy in the Hummer. It will make it so the mother that works for minimum wage will not be able to afford gas for her 1990 Corolla. So your hotel room does not get cleaned, your cloths at the dry cleaners are left in a pile. No one to serve you in the restaurant. I think your wish is for a very bleak America. I hope you think about what you are saying.... Do you want a European economy where the unemployment is 10-15% and taxes are at least double what we pay? I think the whole hybrid mentality is becoming Cult like. I thought us diesel guys were bad. We just want to save a few bucks on fuel not destroy the economy of OUR Country....
What is more important is the American people, jobs and the economy and not the Fat Profits for the Oil Companies. The only way to stop the Billions of Dollars flowing away from US is to promote the vehicles giving higher MPG.
When people can have 40K to buy a Excursion/Suburban and spend another 30K (@ $2/gallon) on its fuel for lifetime, they can easily spend 25-27 K on hybrid whose fuel costs only $ 8K.
Gone were the days when GM, Ford made 5K + profits on sale of big vehicles, now they are cutting the price, giving discount and still have a big inventory.
The Big Duo's Trio
Ford (Explorer, Expedition, Excursion)
GM (Trailblazer, Tahoe, Suburban)
are down by atleast 30 % in Jan-Feb 2005.
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewm- onthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=74&docid=12754
http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=20286&make_id=trust
The vehicles that are selling well for these companies are the smaller Escape, Equinox.
Its high time for these companies to push Hybrid, Diesel, FFV, CNG versions of these smaller vehicles. Maybe when Honda brings its Civic in 4 engine versions, the big 2 will realise.
At $ 40 / barrel, big SUV's have rolled over. At $ 80 - 90, God knows.
If people dont go to restaurent, the restaurent owner will not have enough money to fill his Hummer. Better he gets a Hybrid.
VERY WELL SAID. And not to mention the THOUSANDS OF TONS of greenhouse gases that the big SUVs emit over their lifetimes too.
are down by at least 30 % in Jan-Feb 2005.
Honda cars are down also. The Civic is off 34% for the same time frame. Honda is not doing real well with their hybrids. So what is your point?
Don't get me wrong I am for using less fossil fuel also. And I agree it should be whatever is the most efficient. Right today the most efficient vehicles IN the World are diesel. Only three hybrid models can be considered truly fuel saving compared to the hundreds of models of diesel cars, SUVs & trucks. I think James Carville coined the phrase "It's the economy stupid" at this time that does not apply to the hybrids. Maybe someday when the automakers figure out how to build them competitively, they will be. They just don't pencil out saving any money. If you think they are cool or they make you look "Green" go for it. Even if the public wanted them the automakers are saying we will build only 20k per year. The only exception is the Prius and the jury has not come back on that one yet...
2005 is the last year for current model of Civic.
2006 will feature Civic in 4 Engine versions and 4 Door versions.
So both new and existing Civic customers will be waiting for that.
Is that the story of GM's trio.
As for Diesel, I FULLY AGREE with you that Diesel has a big role to play. I think the Diesel version of Liberty, Golf, Jetta, etc are selling well. Civic-Diesel may also come if customers ask for.
After all Honda had the guts to bring a small vehicle like Insight to US, when all Americans at that time were running for big vehicles.
Diesel can get a new life with Bio-Diesel, but there is no Bio-Gasoline.
Gasoline is not a Generic Fuel like Hydrogen. Infact Nat-Gas (Methane) can be made using Hydrogen & Carbon (according to 1 source), since that is the simplest of all Hydrocarbons (CH4).
I hope they do. If they were to add the 2.2 liter diesel to that PU truck of theirs I would buy one in a heartbeat. I liked the Odyssey with the V6 with VCM. They are not getting that great of a mileage benefit. Many are reporting only 15-16 mpg. May as well keep my 14 mpg Suburban with that little of a gain.
PS
This is the end of the life on all the large GM PUs & SUVs new GMT900 series are due out in MY 2006. They will be changing those factories over in June.
You mean all Silverado, Suburban, Tahoe, Trailblazer will end by 2005.
And any Hybrid among GMT900. How about Diesel, CNG, etc.
I guess GM has not published much.
A nice article on bobos, the people who made hybrids popular.
They buy
* hybrids
* live in green building
* eat organic foods.
I'm not a "bobo" (maybe a boob sometimes) and I am helping to make Hybrids popular by promoting them every chance I get.
"Why can't we all just get along (with hybrids)." Said a wise sage of the eighties.
Culliganman(gimme a Prius to go and go and go...
Culliganman
I feel like a broken record. Read "Out of Gas: the End of the Age of Oil" by David Goodstein.
He knows about oil shales and sands; in spite of these, he says that oil *production* will hit its *peak* in the next ten years.
jprice
You remember what happened in the late 70s early 80s. The car makers especially Honda & VW built very economical cars. 52% of VW sales were diesel back then. By 1983 the average car got 27 mpg. Now 22 years later the average is still 27 mpg. Not much progress. NO wait, the hybrids came along with very good mileage. We get the Prius, Insight & HCH. Things are looking up for fuel economy. NO, wait they are not looking up, because the automakers limit the hybrids & everyone in the world knows they cost too much to manufacture, that is everyone but a few diehards that think batteries and electric motors are not that expensive to build. Those same few zealots also think it is just dandy that the price of gas reaches the sky because they got their hybrid, and screw all the less fortunate people that don't make the big bucks to afford these overpriced hybrid vehicles. You can pray to the hybrid god all you like, he ain't going to produce any more than he has to for the sake of his "Green" image. For example Toyota promised to manufacture 15k Prius per month in 2005. The US was to get 10k per month. They sold 5566 in January & 7078 in February. My question to you where are the other 7300 Prius allocated for the US market? With wait lists all over the country those 7k+ cars should be on the road saving our planet. I think Toyota is lying to us. You and others just cannot accept the truth. I consider those that want to see the price of gas rise are selfish & thoughtless. If gas goes to $5 per gallon it would only be 2 days pay to run my Suburban for a year. Many people in this country would be working for a month a year to buy gas for their car. It is not the hybrids that are the problem it is the selfish mentality of many that own them & the demagogues at Toyota that give lip service to protecting the environment, while building four of the worst polluting vehicles on the planet. They could do more to clean up the air by getting rid of their big polluters than building hybrids. Toyota would have had to build 1 million Prius last year to compensate for the pollution of the 110,000 units they sold of the LX470, GX470, Sequoia & Landcruisers. Each of those pollutes 9-10 times as much as one Prius. You can paint Toyota green, I'd paint them black hearted. At least the other automakers are telling the hybrid story the way it really is. Toyota is the only one saying it is profitable when they know they are lying through their teeth.
You heard it here first, and here's why: they cost more money, don't deliver an equal value for all that cash and will keep the filthy little foreign oil rats in business for another 30 years. Hybrids do nothing well but everything okay. That makes about as much sense as diet soda, fat-free ice cream or low-tar cigarettes."
http://www.autosite.com/content/shared/articles/templates/index.cfm/article_id_int/366
You are probably right. I did not write the article, I just posted it from one of the trusted auto publications.
I am hanging around to see If any of the automakers come up with a vehicle that I can use. So far they have not. All I want is a medium size PU that gets 35 mpg or more combined. After a decent start with the Insight, Prius & HCH, they are building nothing but FooFoo cars & CUVs with little or NO redeeming qualities. I don't need to go 0-60 in 2.8 seconds. I just want to do all the things you normally do with a PU truck. The rest of the world have such vehicles in abundance. It does have to be able to get to our landfill in San Diego. That is 2.7 miles of dirt road that is 4WD only after a rain. I would like to pull my 3500 lb. capacity utility trailer up that road to the dump. Is that asking too much of the automakers? PU trucks are the largest segment of vehicle sales with no slow down in sight. So far the only company to even try at all is GM with that sort of hybrid full size truck that still gets lower mileage than their diesel offerings.
Are you like many of the other hybrid owners? You got what you need in a hybrid so the automakers must be doing a good job.
PS
If you have come across any of my posts since 1999 you know that I have needed & wanted such a PU truck since the first posts. So I hang around skeptical but hopeful. If I left who would you guys debate with? No one would stir the pot..
me: well if it looks like a duck ... ;-) Here is some information you might find interesting. http://www.em.csiro.au/sustainable_mining/research/projects/undergroundcoal/
And this article gives some more details:
http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/default/tech_papers/17th_congress/2_3_28.- - asp#Heading10
Here's what it says why we're not doing coal gasification (Section 3.6): "The main reason for not going up to commercial operation in these countries has been the availability of inexpensive petroleum supplies in abundance both domestic and imported.
And from the U.S. DOE - "Total recoverable reserves of coal around the world are estimated at 1,083 billion tons11—enough to last approximately 210 years at current consumption levels (Figure 55). Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 60 percent of the world’s recoverable reserves are located in three countries: the United States (25 percent), FSU (23 percent), and China (12 percent)" http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html
Conclusion: There is plenty of fuel available in the short term. Hmm, after the Middle east oil is used up, I guess they'll have to buy coal from us; they better find something useful to produce before then. I guess the oil producing nations are the ones that really better worry. :-)
PS
I heated with wood in Alaska for several years. two cords a month for 1/3 of the year. It was that or $500 per month in propane to heat the furnace in a 1700 sq ft. Log Home. I don't miss it.
One more point. How many times do you drive solo in that "big rig" that has the capacity to carry 7-8 people and big loads? I usually am solo except when my wife tags along.
Since I'm retired (actually on "SABATICATION" that's a VACATION & SABATICAL combined), I find it annoying that many "naysayers" are of the SUV catagory. As we advance into the new age of "smart cars", I hope you find your "smart car", Be it diesel or hybrid. There's more than one kind of "smart car". Just like there's more than one kind of GAS HOG.
Culliganman(economy minded)
It is a 5.7 Liter gas K1500 4X4 LS. In the almost 7 years I have owned it the worst tank was 12.9 mpg the best was 19.0 all highway. It cruises on the highway 70 mph at 2000 rpm. The only mods are a K&N Air Filter and decent exhaust system. I am almost to 49k miles. I usually fill it up when the trip odomete hits 550 miles. That has been as long as 3 months. I use for going to Home Depot, trips to the desert, Tahoe and Up the coast. I put 3400 miles on it last year. If any of your beloved automakers were to build a hybrid that I have a use for I would consider buying.
I chose the Escape as our second hybrid because it met the limited towing requirements and had the interior space we needed. If I'd been able to find a 2wd version in Oregon I likely would have gone that route, as I'm not convinced of the value of 4wd for typical conditions compared to the added weight, expense and complexity.
Ironically I just read a review of Honda's new pickup...if they do an IMA version of that vehicle you just might get your needs met...
I am watching that vehicle. I think the race will be whether they use the IMA or that very fine diesel engine that Honda has built. I would go with the diesel version for sheer torque. Probably a couple years for either one to show up in the USA.
me: you bring up an interesting philosophical point. Many people believe that all you need is what will typically get you through the events of the day. Others, including myself believe you should be prepared for the worst or the extreme.
For example, in 44 years I have had no real need for a gun. I never shot a thing except cans, and such for amusement and practice. A total waste of resources right? Well until life sends you something unpredictable like a rabid porcupine that came on my property in Sept. and approached our horse and cats. Then the gun became useful.
But even hybrid owners have stuff they'll likely never use, and thus it is a waste. Most people will go through their entire lives without ever needing an airbag. It is added weight, expense and complexity. And 4wd may not be needed, until the 1 day you get caught in a freak blizzard in the middle of nowhere. The same is true of engine power.
The reason I work, and we all work as a society is to acquire more knowledge and more power in all ways, and be able to control our environment better. Our future does not lie in being minimalists conserving our resources in the "Petri- dish" which is a no-win game. Our future lies in acquiring power, and expanding our personal and societal power. I'll take my next vehicle as a personal-sized 200 ton anti-matter powered, inter-star capable Mech. Sorry gagrice, diesel just doesn't give me the range or power I want. ;-)
Culliganman(free us Prius)(I've got 16K and average 47+ mpg's)
But I hope you understood the point of: It's better to have more capabilities than less. It is better to have more friends and family, it is better to have more money, it is better to be stronger, faster, and more agile, and it is better to have more power and capability in a vehicle.
As you mention people have no problem with now "needing" all those power features and AC. Even the Prius and the other hybrids won't give up those items that add weight and drain the batteries when used.
you: Hybrids seem to definitly be the "IN" new car choice.
me: not looking at the vehicles introduced in Detroit or Geneva. I'm actually more excited by the option of a diesel Liberty and whether the diesel Grand Cherokee introduced in Geneva come here. There's only a $1500 adder for diesel, while hybrids are what $4K adder? Diesels are proven and cost less. i would guess that's more our future, though no reason you couldn't put a hybrid system on a diesel.
"By 1983 the average car got 27 mpg. Now 22 years later the average is still 27 mpg. Not much progress"
I found some cheery information about MPG progress at the CATO Institute:
http://www.cato.org/dailys/07-03-04.html
"Small cars accounted for 40 percent of U.S. passenger vehicles in 1975, yet average mileage was then only 13.1 mpg.
By 1988, the small car share was up only modestly to 43.8 percent, yet average mileage had improved enormously to 22.1 mpg."
I'll take your 27MPG as today's average figure as it is.
Today some cars get around 50-70MPG to the average user, and even over 100MPG for a few enthusiasts.
Yes, hybrid cars are leading the pack.
Yes, we are making very good progress.
Culliganman (GAS TODAY IS $2.10)
P.S. One of my favorite hybrid moments is when I'm stuck in traffic and running on electric/engine off and the lady next to me in her HUMMER is burning fuel to the tune of 9-10 mpg's
I don't think anyone is happy paying more for fuel, hybrid or not. If gas does reach $3/G this summer, it's not that I'm glad someone's paying more, but will be glad that I'm not the one pumping big $$ fueling a different vehicle.
When fuel prices hit hard, I feel bad for guzzler owners.
Sort of like a person who's not doing well in a situation but only because he didn't plan ahead. Some examples:
1. Retirement.
2. Saving money in an account(s).
3. Preparing in advance, in case of flood, fire, etc.
4. Investing in a Hybrid car :}
The average 27.5mpg car uses 550 gal. if it travels an average of 15K miles/year = $1145 using your $2.10/gal. So how do you save $2200. ;-)
you: I do believe.
me: Don't believe man, THINK and calculate!
you: One of my favorite hybrid moments is when I'm stuck in traffic and running on electric/engine off and the lady next to me in her HUMMER is burning fuel to the tune of 9-10 mpg's.
me: you really need to find something else to live for.
My HCH is:
59MPG / 31K = 525 gallons of gas = $945
My '94 Dodge Spirit which it replaced:
16MPG / 31K = 1937 gallons of gas = $3846
Non-Hybrid Civic EX
35MPG / 31K = 886 gallons of gas = $1594
Your "average" figure:
27.5MPG / 31K = 1130 gallons of gas = $2034
In the first year of my HCH I've saved this much in fuel, based @ 1.80/gallon:
3846-945= Almost $3,000 in savings over my old car it replaced.
1594-945= Almost $650 saved in my pocket in compared to the non-Hybrid version.
2034-945= Almost $1,100 saved in fuel cost over the Nat'l "Average".
Those figures are only for 12 months. What are my savings over 5 years? Remember, gas prices are rising again and these are based on $1.80/g:
$15K Saved over my last car it replaced.
$3,300 over the non-hybrid version.
$5,500 Saved in fuel compared to Nat'l "Average".
More than Fifteen Thousand dollars in fuel savings for upgrading from my old car over only 5 years!
Culliganman(life is good when ya gotta Prius)
16MPG / 31K = 1937 gallons of gas = $3846
Now think about this. For someone that gets over 50 mpg with an HCH you could have bought a VW Jetta Wagon Diesel in 1994 and saved some serious money. Using your formula of 31k miles per year at 50 mpg in the Jetta your cost per year would have been only $992 saving you $2854 for the last 10 years. That is $28,540 in your pocket to buy that new HCH and have 8 grand for gas for the next 8 years. PLUS, That 10 year old Jetta with only 310,000 miles would still bring a premium price of about $3,000 in the Auto Trader. PLUS, you would have saved about 16,000 gallons of our precious fossil fuel. You could have had that warm fuzzy feeling you have now for the last ten years.
Sounds like you are working on making it full time retirement. Besides you don't want to drive a train after the quiet of that Prius.
Me: That's a rather alarming approach to life...meglomania starts that way. Last time I checked, this planet is a zero-sum environment (excepting solar radiation, but even that is finite, as is our ability to use it). That means if _you_ are going to aquire more power (wealth, resources, etc) it comes at the expense of someone else.
At some point can't we agree that what we consume in the way of resources and energy is sufficient? Also, can't one make intelligent tradeoffs about things rather than insisting on having it all? Where I live I'm perfectly willing to take the risk that I might be in a situation where I don't have 4wd and might have been able to use it (frankly when the weather is that bad in Portland, nobody goes anywhere). On the other hand, a collision where an airbag might be useful is a constant possibility even in the best weather. I'd trade the airbags (front and side curtain) for the 4wd any day of the week. I'd also trade power windows, door locks, etc. for 5mph bumpers...
As to engine power, the point of the hybrid design is that you can "bank" some energy for those peak needs and put it to use only when it's required. By getting the IC engine running closer to its peak output, you also get it running near its peak efficiency.
When you decide you want your hybrid to be able to tow something, you have to re-think the balance between engine size (sustained power output) and efficiency when not towing. The more towing capacity you want, the more excess engine capacity you carry around when you are not towing. It's a balancing act. Ideally we'll see a range of choices so the buyer can choose the amount of reserve capacity s/he needs for their particular situation.
I believe that is dictated by our checking and savings account. Our leaders somewhat set the bar that we all try to achieve. Most of us will not own 7 mansions as Teresa & John Kerry. How many people do you know that live well below their means? Everything we do or buy represents usage or energy expended. Only time will tell if the hybrid contributes or detracts from the equation.
We know that the hybrid uses more energy in the manufacturing process than an ICE only vehicle. And consequently pollutes more. If the hybrid is driven a lot that can be overcome with less pollution. When compared to another PZEV non-hybrid it is not for certain that the hybrid will ever become the cleaner choice.
http://www.news8austin.com/content/headlines/?ArID=132605&SecID=2
Eventually, as the buzz dies down and automakers just make hybrid engines an option on otherwise bland looking cars and trucks, I predict hybrid sales will begin tapering off. Many people will pay a big premium for stylish vehicles, but most others will think about their kids' college funds and their retirement accounts and go buy the used minivan.
me: I base what I said on 50K years of history - progress of man to acquire the power and knowledge to control his environment. I don't see that desire for progress stopping at this point in time, do you?
I hope not, because we are fairly powerless to stop a civilization ending asteroid or supervolcano. It is totally normal for us as individuals and a society to want more power to assure our survival.
you: That means if _you_ are going to aquire more power (wealth, resources, etc) it comes at the expense of someone else.
me: Not true!; unless you think physicists know everything about how the universe operates. In the 18th century no physicist understood the use and existence of major supply of oil. In the 19th century no physicist understood that there are elements in the earth to have nuclear power. I assume you think we're at the end of knowledge? Dark energy or matter anyone? Antimatter?
you: At some point can't we agree that what we consume in the way of resources and energy is sufficient?
me: It's a big universe man! We can each have our own star system in the Milky Way at least. ;-)
you: (frankly when the weather is that bad in Portland, nobody goes anywhere). On the other hand, a collision where an airbag might be useful is a constant possibility even in the best weather. I'd trade the airbags (front and side curtain) for the 4wd any day of the week.
me: well here in NH, you get to use AWD or 4wd, 4 months of the year, because the snow packs to ice, and the sun doesn't shine through the pine trees to melt the side roads. Both airbags and 4wd are good. I've seen 1 6-wheel drive Swiss vehicle being sold locally. That would even be better.
you: is that you can "bank" some energy for those peak needs and put it to use only when it's required.
me: sounds good until you 've just made a "withdrawal", and the semi you're passing doesn't see you and starts to come into your lane. Again more is better.
you: Ideally we'll see a range of choices so the buyer can choose the amount of reserve capacity s/he needs for their particular situation.
me: you don't always get to choose the particular situation. Seeing the report on small car safety that just came out, I'm sure people won't choose to be hit by a PU. The more protection and greater strength a vehicle has the better. I'd rather have a couple hundred pounds of high strength steel on the sides than get an extra 1 mpg.
1994 Jetta's are rated at 23mpg:
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/10980.shtml
If I'm not mistaken my Dodge was rated at 21MPG.
With my old lead foot habit I'd bet it would still be in the teens for MPG, and since it is rated worst 10 in reliability would have likely cost much more to service.
That's some reasons I didn't get one then, and is why I'm hoping the future is in hybrid.
A hybrid weighs 100 kg (220 lb) more and it reduces gas consumption by 1,500 gallons which will weigh around 5,000 kg (11,000 lb). Now do the math.
Time will come and all people will know the correct info.