Diesels in the News

ruking1

Even simpler, convert your ratio example: 10-1, 1-10 In terms of a barrel of oil (42 gals) and clarify. What you are saying is not clear in terms of that EIA.com posting about products from a barrel of oil.

avalon02wh

I also read the article. The 69 mpg is excellent, however until VW tells us what the car will cost we are left hanging.

The same article said they 2009 Jetta diesel would cost about $2k more than the regular Jetta. If you add in the extra cost for diesel over RUG the payback would be many years, if at all, for someone like myself who drives less than 10K per year. The new CR auto issue also gives VW poor marks for reliability. :lemon: It rates about 3 times worse that Toyota after 8-10 years. I don't think VW is going to be the one that makes diesels mainstream.

Higher cost of diesel/hybrid + higher cost of diesel + higher repair costs = it might be better to buy a Corolla (which is now about the same size)

moparbad

Diesels make cents, but Detroit still slow to embrace them

quote-
Consider this: A new 2006 Volkswagen Jetta TDI cost about $22,000. Two years later, the same vehicle sells for nearly the same price, according to Kelley Blue Book.
During that same time frame, a similar gas-powered Jetta has already lost nearly 30 percent of its value. In fact, every diesel car sold in the past five years still fetches a significantly higher resale price than its gasoline counterpart.
"What we're seeing now are the small diesel fanatics going after the few diesels out there," said Jack Nerad, Kelley Blue Book's market analyst. "There's no substitute for a diesel."
And until carmakers begin to provide more diesel models to American consumers, the demand for used diesels will continue to outweigh the supply, experts say.
Gas-powered vehicles aren't expected to hold their value as well as their diesel counterparts, even as the U.S. auto industry begins to embrace diesel, says Ed Kim, an industry analyst with AutoPacific Inc., an automotive market research and consulting firm.
"For the next couple of years, you're going to see diesel vehicles keep their value much better than their gasoline cars," Kim said.
-end

Detroit will arrive to the party late, proving once again that for every inaction there is an equal and opposite market reaction. European and Japanese car companies will import their diesels and steal more of Detroit's market share.

bigmclargehuge

The last one is from WIkipedia, talking about the refining process. Fractional distillation seperates the parts of the crude oil by boiling point, that cannot be re-worked by chemistry.
Actually that is what 'refining is'. You only discribed distillation process. Currently most heavy deposits are 'coked' and 'cracked' into gasoline and Naptha lights are chemically altered into gasoline via recombination. In other countries, more of that fraction is converted into diesel. No, we do not have the infrastructure at the average fuel station to support it, but that doesn't mean it can't be done.

My point was that the 20 gallons gasoline from a 42-gallon barrel is only an average, and is not the maximum allowable. Yes, it does depend on the type of oil. As shown here:
Under Downstream Processing

There are some refineries in the US that take 20% distillate gasoline and then refine another 40% of the distillates into gasoline for a 60% total. And that's only currently. That is not a maximum.

I was once in a refinery in Poland and an operator told me that he can make almost any gas to diesel ratio. Like from 10:1 to 1:10. He also said that any modern refinery can do that. When people buy more diesel in winter then they make more diesel. Simple.

My calculations were similar. We currently have the technology to produce 60% gasoline from Arab light crude, another 30% being fuel oils, which can be converted via re-refining to 90% gasoline The other 10% is waste byproduct, and is sold as bulk carbon. So ~100% useable fuel coming from certain barrels of oil can be gasoline. (at great cost and effort, which I disclaimed was impractical, but possible).

Likewise, if we had a higher demand for diesel (like in Europe), we wouldn't mix quite as much into gasoline.

Detroit will arrive to the party late, proving once again that for every inaction there is an equal and opposite market reaction. European and Japanese car companies will import their diesels and steal more of Detroit's market share.

Hybrids, on average have a worse resale value than conventional gasoline cars even. Nobody seems to want to buy a used hybrid. Diesel trucks and cars have always held their value better because of the lubricating properties of your fuel also being a type of oil. A used diesel is almost as good as new if properly cared for, so they depreciate much slower.

qbrozen

wait a sec.

Sooo.. lemme see if I can get a handle on this.

When folks point out that the added cost of a hybrid takes many years to pay itself back in fuel savings, they are poo-poo'd by the hybrid sect, stating that there is so much more to it than money, like saving the planet.

Yet, add diesel to the mix, for similar fuel savings over hybrid than hybrid over normal gasser, and its suddenly all about money. Am I missing something?

bigmclargehuge

Nobody said its all about money. Just other things to consider

It depends what floats your boat. For me, I want to be able to drive a sporty car that doesn't pollute like crazy. Think BMW 335d and the like (if they ever put a manual in it )

According to the EPA, if 33 percent of U.S. drivers switched to diesel vehicles, the country would reduce its oil consumption by about 1.5 million barrels a day, cutting oil imports by more than 10 percent.

Popular Mechanics

If you hate depreciation, diesels are historically quite good for that. If you hate engine wear, diesels are good there too. But they come with a high purchase price and the fuel (this year only) is higher than gasoline. ( On an average for 2007, it averaged around the cost of mid-grade. We are analyzing data for a very small time period. There's really no telling how much it will cost 2 years from now. )

So there are some pros and cons. I think the pros outweigh the cons, but nobody has to agree.

ruking1

Historically the markets really selectively reward certain products. Three that come to mind currently are Civic/Corolla/TDI. Cost per mile driven is very low, resale value is very good % wise (depreciation)- 1 through 5 years are the usual indicators.

So for example both Honda AND Toyota have no current plans to bring to the US market diesel Civic, Corolla.They of course have both in the European markets and have sold them for years. Both are considered best of the breed in the economy department. Diesels in those US markets would trump their own economy gasser products.

As for the VW reliability issue, TDI's are different from gassers engines. The CR ratings are based on gasser engines, as the majority are gassers.

qbrozen

Nobody said its all about money.

I would have to say the article's title implied it.

bristol2

Does anyone have any information on what kind of (I assume negative) impact all the emission control equipment required in the US would have on the life of the engine?

I am in a non-CARB state and it seems like I'm better off with a non-50 state legal diesel since I get rid of the extra emission equipment.

ruking1

No, the data on the life of engines are kept closer to the vest than state secrets, let alone what emissions components do than can affect them. I am not saying those data/s is/are not either known or there, but it is indeed like looking for a needle in a haystack. On the gasser side there has been some discussion of it costing more to put a PZEV product to market that will sport an emissions guarantee of 10 years or 150,000 miles?

An example is the VW TDI engine with design specifications @ 80% loading for 25,000 hours. (80% loading is VERY rare in auto engine operations, more like 40% if one really GETS on it. ) so with an average speed of 40-50 mph, with reasonable care and operations, the math indicates 1,000,000 to 1,250,000 miles. (huge and to an oem ominious implications here)

Your last sentence draws attention to one of the interesting spots in the market place. If I were looking at a diesel, a non 50 state legal diesel, (45 states) or "PRE" 50 state legal specimen, is what I would indeed want. CA the lead CARB state will register one with more than 7500 miles (used obviously) and currently require no smog check to do so. Indeed it is smog check exempt. Even at the "smog only" 10 year mark.

If the market/s had the models I would want, I would replace the remaining gassers I had with diesels, i.e., not buy gassers.

roland3

... Several of the areas that CARB does not look at is the increased maintenance, wear and higher carbon emissions that their regs inevitably cause; however there must be some specs for later inspections. I don't know if this would work but I might be in favor of a "big picture", emissions, petrol use, carbon emit, engine wear, national, Czar.

bigmclargehuge

Nobody said its all about money.

I would have to say the article's title implied it.

Diesels don't necessarily have to be cost-only consideration. It can also be environmental and political. Yes, the 'diesels make cents' article would be one factor to consider, but not the only one.

Does anyone have any information on what kind of (I assume negative) impact all the emission control equipment required in the US would have on the life of the engine?

I'm predicting none for the engine. Since the real equipment change is urea injection into a catalyst canister after the exhaust has left the engine and the turbocharger, the only thing it can really do is cause your exhaust to rust out faster. If the exhaust is stainless that might not be an issue, but we'll see.

The canister itself will just add backpressure. Thats like adding a second muffler or catalytic converter to the exhaust stream. Many vehicles do this already, and it doesn't really hurt the life of the engine. Sure does sap your power though. You could get way more power and torque out of a diesel by removing this equipment. Unfortunately I live in a state that requires stock exhaust componets always.

ruking1

NYMEX Crude oil trading at 107.57 per barrel /gas trading at 2.70....

repoman1

repoman1

The 2009 Jetta Wagon will arrive in Canada in Spring, with a starting price of $24,975, which is $1,500 less than the previous generation. Much like the sedan version, the Jetta Wagon will also offer the optional Clean TDI engine in August.

The 2009 Jetta Wagon TDI will be available at a starting price of $26,975, which is almost $1,000 less that the previous generation.

ruking1

That is good news! The TDI wagon has historically been the highest priced, more coveted and best of already best (TDI models) resale values.

I think it also needs to be stated that the quality between the A4 (last year 2005) and 2009 is more BMW-like than ever before. This probably accounts for MOST of the app 5k/7k increase in prices- rather than JUST the fact it is the new clean diesel TDI. Hopefully VW has addressed the reliability "monkey", which would in theory begin to pay dividends in the reliability measure and reputation. As things percolate, we are talking 5 years going forward, or a batch of them to hit 100,000 miles. However VW TDI's have demostrated to have very high resale values.

Interesting that Honda/Toyota will not take VW head on. I would think the diesel Civic/Corolla would be the US market new standard setter. It was rumored/stated and abandoned that Honda would put their clean diesel in a Accord type platform. Lastest information has that at a much steeper priced variant: Acura TL ( MSRP 34-38k for a gasser?) This would lead me to guess that when Toyota unveils a diesel product, a higher priced Camry/ Avalon to Lexus product.

qbrozen

Diesels don't necessarily have to be cost-only consideration. It can also be environmental and political.

yeah, that's what I'm saying.

Just seems to me that the gas/hybrid supporters point those "other" considerations out when it comes to gas/hybrid vehicles, but then jump to the other side regarding earning your money back through gas savings when referring to the added cost of diesel. Interesting how that works.

Not to single gas/hybrid supporters out, I'm sure many diesel supporters who have been on the "you don't get your purchase price back in gas savings" side of things might change their tune with a diesel hybrid.

I'd be up for a diesel hybrid, no doubt, and its why I posted the article about the GLK diesel hybrid. But I gotta wonder ... what happened to benz's DiesOtto engine? Was that just a tease? They showed it off last year, then it just went away, and now they are showing diesel hybrids. Will those also just turn out to be a tease?

bigmclargehuge

Not to single gas/hybrid supporters out, I'm sure many diesel supporters who have been on the "you don't get your purchase price back in gas savings" side of things might change their tune with a diesel hybrid.

Perhaps. Hard to tell with resale values on vehicles that haven't been invented yet. Would Americans buy a used diesel hybrid? They don't seem to want to buy used gas hybrids, but they do want to buy used diesels.

I guess we wait and see.

ruking1

Good then that we discuss these types of things. I really do not think one has to go far to run the numbers, if one say needs a good commute vehicle say Corolla vs Prius. Or "like models" such as Jetta gassers/diesels.

My take on the D2/hybrid is the price almost will no way approach a gasser, diesel or hybrid. It will probably cost more!! So B/E will be very high to many years to break even. The upshot is per mile driven. You can compare apples to apples (like models) or even apples to oranges, for there are a myriad of reasons folks buy ANYTHING.

bigmclargehuge

My take on the D2/hybrid is the price almost will no way approach a gasser, diesel or hybrid. It will probably cost more!! So B/E will be very high to many years to break even.

If the diesel hybrids have bad resale, you're absolutely right. What are we estimating for added purchase? 5K? That means if when you buy it it costs 5K more than a conventional model, it has to sell for 5K more (after however many years).

If it sells for 5K more than the gasser after 5 years, you've probably recouped your losses.
If it sells for the exact same as the gasser, you've lost 5K net, and you'll be challenged to make that up in fuel economy.
If it sells for less than the gasser, there is no way you're ever making that up on fuel economy.

I'm going to bet right up the middle. That they don't sell quite as good as straight diesels, but not as bad as gas-hybrids. Some people will drive with a heavy right foot and won't save anything, and others will be conservative and just break even.

ruking1

Glad you understand and agree with what I said.

Middling will really increase the chances of dis satisfaction. It is really a case of getting with the program or NOT!?

Further, driving with a heavy right foot would be an indication of a genuine lack of understanding how to milk the best of:(both hybrid and diesel) . Most folks who shift from gasser to diesel have a hard time, folks that shift from gasser to Prius, also. The mpg bru ha ha with the Prius should be a no brainer indicator. To get the advertised mph etc you literally have to drive within the specific vehicles efficiency (AKA behavior change) parameters to achieve so called a desired result. So it was more than painfully obvious the DIS satisfied Prius owners coulda would shouda DIDDA NOT. It caused such a stir that the EPA was forced to alter a perfectly repeatable standard. So now the Prius has gone from 60/50 to max 48 (or whatever its rated at) From an operational point of view, mpg optimization on D2/hybrid will be a trick. This would mean you will have to shift operations from a tad to a lot, when different conditions present themselves. My take is most folks barely want to pay attention NOW!! When you combine this with old habits might be hard to change for most folks.... So with this dual learning curve (hybrid/D2), there will be a lot of room for both satisfaction and DIS satisfaction. So yes, it will be interesting.

avalon02wh

I was not referring to the reliability of just the diesel engine, which I would agree is excellent. My concern was with the overall reliability of the car. The information on page 21 of the CR Annual Auto issue talked about VW in general. If the CD player or rear axle is an issue with the gasser we can assume the same issue will be present in the diesel. I also wonder how all the new diesel emission equipment will work out, not just for VW, but Honda, Subaru and the others.

ruking1

Right I was speaking actually of BOTH, with the emphasis on the engine. So for example, no way I would have bought a VW if I did not believe it (the rest) could go the distance. (dana carvey: wouldnt be prudient.) That is really the concern I would have with the Civic, for example.

avalon02wh

"Am I missing something?" No, In fact if you look up the story about the Tata Nano you can see how bizarre things can get.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Nano (scroll down to Controversies)

http://www.enn.com/business/article/29401 (Nano Hypocrisy?)

Prius = darling of the environmentally conscious
Nano = a climate wrecker

Maybe they will put a diesel in the Nano and ......................

KCRam

Just passing along my own experience.

My 2005 Dodge Ram 3500 (Cummins diesel) was 3 years old this past Saturday, and was reading 57,909 miles. The MSRP was $44,070. It is currently wholesaling at 50% of that price (right about $22K) after 3 years and almost 20,000 miles per year.

For the otherwise identical truck with the gasoline engine (5.7L Hemi), the MSRP was $5000 less. It is wholesaling at $15,500... only 40% of its original sticker.

So my truck was $5000 more initially, but after 3 years and 58,000 miles, the Cummins is worth $6500 more than the Hemi at its lowest commercial value.

Just some food for thought.

kcram - Pickups Host

avalon02wh

"with reasonable care and operations, the math indicates 1,000,000 to 1,250,000 miles. (huge and to an oem ominious implications here) "

Oh, I don't know. Sounds like they need to start making just the body and put the old engine in the new body. Which may not be so far fetched as resources get scarce.

bigmclargehuge

Hey, I'm with ya. Trucks are the best example of diesel value.

That margin gets even wider the longer you keep it. So you'll actually have saved a bunch by spending more on the right engine.

ruking1

Well actually that is part of the battle plan!, if things go to H in a handbasket, a new long block is app 5,600. Got the vendor all lined up.

ruking1

Not even broken in yet? Jetta TDI does not develop full compression and best mpg till app 50-60,000 miles.

I would swag the same for the Cummins diesel.?

Ya gotta love that residual value!! Cummins will literally run away with the market if they can supply Turbo/twin V8 engines for more normal cars and of course trucks (150, 1500 series)

mrsixpack

I own 2 diesels, a 84' F250 and a 87' Escort. One thing I have decided is that in order to pay for the extra cost of the diesel engine you must drive it....the more miles you drive the better the deal gets ! Its hard to recoup the added $3-$5 grand for the diesel if you dont drive it compaired to the gas engines !

IMHO...that is !

ruking1

I would agree. I had a 1987 Toyota Landcruiser (gasser) , sold at the 14 year mark with app 250,000 miles. So yes I think the real key here is the more mileage the better. Of course not everyone has those types of requirements.

elemoncelli

One of our local shops in the southern side of the Orlando Metro area is selling diesel for $3.989 a penny shy of $4. Its only one shop that I noticed, there might be others around, I haven't been looking at diesel as much as gasoline since I don't currently own a diesel.

avalon02wh

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/sbsavg.asp is reporting several states at over $4 for a gallon of diesel. NY is up to about $4.10. Several states are also in the $3.60s (lowest).

A year ago RUG was at $2.54 it is now at $3.23. Diesel a year ago was $2.73, now it is $3.85. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that RUG will average $3.75 this summer with diesel at $3.99.

Another site that lists diesel prices is http://www.thetrucker.com/Features/Daily_Diesel_Prices.aspx

"Diesel supplies are tight due to low stocks and extensive spring maintenance at European refineries." http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7366133

elias

the price delta is now the same as the mpg delta. so you don't save more $ the more you drive your diesel, not any more. WELCOME TO THE FUTURE WORLD OF CLEAN DIESEL.
There are some fine justifications for diesels, but saving-$ due to per-mile fuel cost is no longer a justification. Oh well. It sure was nice while it lasted. We'll always have sooty Paris.
As far as the news goes, you can count on some press reports with even lamer rhymes than the ones I'm going to put in my subject titles every week until the price of diesel drops below the price of gasoline per gallon. waaaaaaah!

ruking1

Good reason to have an apples to oranges hedge. I see this in a side by side day to day comparison of Civic gasser vs TDI Jetta. Over 164,000 miles, the cost per mile driven gasser fuel has been CONSISTENTLY higher. (price per gal/ mpg= price per mile driven) On LIKE model comparisons, it almost is NOT a comparison at all.

What I take away from this is not many folks REALLY wants 20-40% less fuel consumption, despite protestations to the contrary. I would agree all like to TALK about it. But it literally stops right there. How many folks can go out RIGHT NOW and buy the vehicle of their choice in a 20-40 % better configuration ( in a diesel model or whatever)?

Let me put it this way, I heard this in a History Channel program that I have been WILDLY optimistic by saying the diesel passenger vehicle fleet is @ LESS than 3%. They quoted 2%. So the ratio is 50 to ONE.

blufz1

High diesel prices represent a buying opportunity. The MFG premium for diesel power will be minimized by the "higher than gas" diesel prices. There are other reasons to buy diesel other than economy. Better towing capability,max torque at cruising speeds,and longevity come to mind.

elias

Thanks blufz and the premiere king of Ru, you guys are inspirational and know how to appeal to my true inner diesel geek. you know i really want a good excuse to aspire to some outstanding diesel vehicle, and to tow a small new england state.
I think Audi has something on an inbound boat that would be fun to compare with the 3 series automatic-trans diesel. I sure hope those homologators at Audi decided to get the manual trans homologation done for the USA FCS of Audi 3.0 TDI.
please let it have a manual transmission. Even an R10 TDI doesn't have a manual trans does it?
maybe the best way to stop paying $4/gallon for dino diesel is to find some top biodiesel geek to convert my VW A5 TDI to biodiesel - it's out-of-warranty in 3k miles. : :shades:
Until then, or until the diesel in hell gels up, I'm hedging by driving my way-too-fast 21 mpg gasser and minimizing TDI miles. gasoline is now such a wicked bahgain at tree dolliz pah gallin.

ruking1

So...Yah want fries with that? :shades:

link title

gagrice

You are exactly right. I bought my 05 Passat wagon TDI at well below invoice in the Spring of 2005. Diesel was higher than regular in Portland where I bought it. One year later in the Spring of 2006 the prices were reversed and I sold the car with 8000 miles for $3000 more than I bought it new. If it was a diesel SUV I would have kept it. Fun to drive and great mileage. Now is the time to be making that diesel purchase. Or in my case a new SUV at $10k under MSRP. Almost $5k under invoice. When folks get used to $4 gas they will be looking to get rid of the econobox they bought.

ruking1

I am still waiting for a turbo diesel Toyota Landcruiser to hit our shores!

bigmclargehuge

Diesel was higher than regular in Portland where I bought it. One year later in the Spring of 2006 the prices were reversed and I sold the car with 8000 miles for $3000 more than I bought it new.

Yeah, we can't predict diesel prices will keep going up in the future based on this very small window of time we are looking at in early 2008. In the past, they have fluctuated relative to one-another.

Either way, we're looking at $4 fuel. I'm planning on cutting my consumption in gallons, whatever fuel it is.

ruking1

Indeed, the goal as we have thought and said all along are ever increasing fuel prices. World wide increases in oil demand has been 3/4% year over year. So even if US market folks "cut back" say 1% (that was the average (12k-15k average per year) I was reading 150 miles less per year or app -12.5 miles per mo), there is STILL a yearly growth rate of 2/3% over the last year.

I just recently went back to NHTSA web site to see the latest annual reports/ projections ( the 2006 government projections) and was surprised to see the registered passenger vehicle fleet has gone from 235.4 M vehicles (earlier than 2005) to 251.4 M !!!! (+16 M vehicles @ 12-15k average per driver) So given the - (minus) averages even with a 150 miles average less, over all consumption has actually increased. My take: it will continue. The population is up and is at 299,398,484.

pg 40, exposure data 810837[1].pdf 2006

>> 2006 Traffic Fatalities and Injuries Assessments (PDF)

link title

If Europe is any example, ie diesel/RUG to PUG @ 8.90 or so per gal, one of the results of better FUEL mileage will be a HUGE increase in price per gal of fuel. Here is the math:

25 mpg @ 3.80 per gal ( US market, Z06 Corvette)=.152 per mile driven.

A TDI in Europe getting 50 mpg/8.90= .178 per mile driven.

So even at 4 bux D2/50 mpg (US market) = .08 cents per mile driven, no wonder they want to ban cars that get great fuel mileage. Or really keep the "economy" segment a minority position :sick: :lemon: :shades:

avalon02wh

" over all consumption has actually increased. My take: it will continue."

Yes that would be a safe bet. A recent WSJ article said: "But in 2009, the EIA sees diesel demand growing 1.6%, twice as fast as gasoline." They go on to say that US refineries will not be able to increase diesel supplies in the short term. The refineries will need to invest many $$$ in equipment to make the switch. And with strong diesel demand around the world, it will cost $$$$ to import diesel.

"The population is up and is at 299,398,484."

A minor update, the census folks think the population is now 303,626,895....

http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html

By the time I finished the post it was up another 48 people! Do we really need any more clones?

ruking1

Not to get morbid but the yearly death rate (read in passing somewhere else) is app 1.4 M. /303.6 M =.0046 %. auto fatality rates are stated in the link I posted. The statistics indicate Things are SAFER even with : more cars, more miles, more drivers, AND less fatalities and slightly more fatalities (up to 41% or so) due to DUI.

jkinzel

A good plague would cure a lot of problems

ruking1

Just cracking up on this side! What may not be a laughing matter, corner store D2 =4.05 with RUG @ 3.60, PUG @3.79.

ruking1

Some of these things are absolutely torque monsters!!!!! Some time back I got a ride in the VW Tourareg (?) that was wired to drive- remote control. While I did not concentrate on the torque and such, too much, this one was the "full monte". Later on in that year it won the DARPA remote operation competition in the Mojave Desert.

alltorque

A good plague would cure a lot of problems.

We already have two plagues : Politicians and Environmentalists.

How many more do we need ?

hypnosis44

A plague might thin out this board a little eh?

In the meantime
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080310/us_nm/gasoline_mass_transit_dc;_ylt=AqdUkyQ_- tPObHyD5mKgl3Gis0NUE

ruking1

But then again.... NOT?

Funny how just .08 cents a mile D2 (4 per gal 50 mpg) works eh? :shades: