Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?

ateixeira

The new base 2.5l is supposed to get 170hp and 170 lb-ft, and should be 10% more fuel efficient. Sounds like an OBS might be in your future.

The Highlander redesign disappointed me. It almost seems more like a refresh, i.e. very little changed. I like it OK, but I was underwhelmed. To be honest I think the current model getting the 3.5l was a more significant upgrade.

The bigger issue is that I will probably buy before they even come out. We'll be car-pooling 5 kids back and forth to camps this summer, so I need it by July. I'll probably buy in June.

Sante Fe is OK, but Veracruz looks even better. Will those be out yet?

I love the new MDX, the interior is gorgeous, but it costs too much for me.

Love the Tribeca redesign.

Highlander won't be here, RAV4 has that wrong way door and has a budget interior, and I want something a little more upscale.

Tried an Outlook - may be too big for me. Visibility is a weak spot. Local dealer's only Acadia with AWD costs $42k. :surprise:

Tossing a wrench in the whole equation is the fact that some vans prices have dropped lately. Sienna LE w/Package 3 is now mid $25s, and an Ody EX mid $26s. That's value you can't beat, and I haven't even mentioned the Entourage - Limited with heated leather seats and power every single thing you can think of for $25k.

This is going to be tough. Tribeca is the emotional favorite right now, though.

dino001

That would mean it did not cost them as much as one might expect if the redesign was from scratch.

paisan

Saw the CX9, totally un-impressed with it and Mazda in general at the show. I talked to a rep there and told them I was cross shopping the Mazdaspeed 6 6MT v. the LGT or SpecB asked them to "sell" me on it over the Legacy. They made a half-hearted attempt with comments like "it's awd" and "it's a great design" and "it's gotten great writeups in magazines". I was truely letdown and felt that Mazda didn't try too hard to sell me on it. Oh well their loss.

-mike

subearu

Unfortunately, you'd probably get that same convincing at a dealer and not just a Mazda one.

-Brian

rsholland

Oh I'm sure it was the least expensive way to go.

That's part of the problem with being a small company, they have to always look to the most cost-effective way to make changes and/or upgrades. They don't have the luxury that "size" affords, be it production/engineering capability or whatever.

In fact the person who confirmed that this was indeed the 9-6x, but massaged with Subie styling cues, also said that the 3.6L engine should have in it from the beginning, but that "they didn't have the manpower" to pull it off. That would not have been the case had it been a larger company like Honda or Toyota.

Bob

ateixeira

That worked out well, then. The Saab partnership dissolved but Subaru didn't waste the invested time, plus the redesign cost them next to nothing (only the engine is truly new).

I forgot about the CX9, that's on my list.

I'm disappointed with the mileage, just 16/22 for an AWD CX9. That's rather pathetic, actually.

I wonder why? With a big V6 and a 6 speed auto you'd think they could do a lot better.

I swear, I almost like the Mazda5 better, but even that isn't as efficient as it should be. Why? :confuse:

subearu

Mazda seems to favor sportier gearing (you know, the zoom zoom) and they'd benefit from shedding a few pounds as well. The Mazda5 hasn't been too bad, I've read of several folks getting decent hwy mpg.

-Brian

ateixeira

I'll see - I do plan on driving a CX9.

css1

Why? FORD - thats why.

They are a lumbering giant. All their American product is decades old. Except for their trucks and the Mustang what do they really have. They're milking Mazda ,Volvo and their european brands for their technology and are not keeping up with future development.

tifighter

A Mazda5 with AWD would be a compelling product; I'd take a long look at one if it were available.

subearu

A Mazda5 with AWD would be a compelling product; I'd take a long look at one if it were available

That is one of the top wants one reads about on the Mazda5, as is that 2.3L turbo in the 6 and CX7.

-Brian

nippononly

a Mazda5 with AWD would probably combine the slowness of Toyota Prius with the fuel economy of most of the V-6 AWD crossovers. Seems to me the advantages might be $2000-3000 in savings at purchase time, and those sliding doors. Certainly not cargo space, and probably not seating space either.

I can't figure out how it is that the (FWD) Mazda5 is so hard on gas with that little 4-cylinder engine. Makes the (AWD) Outback's FE look good! :-P

subearu

That's just it, it's a little 4 cylinder pushing a rather big wagon shape. They just don't tune 'em for mpg it seems either.

I think if they went with AWD on the 5, they might go with the powertrain similar to the CX7, they'd have to do something to provide more power to the extra wheels and the added weight.

-Brian

tifighter

I don't know; I think of it more like the 4wd Toyota Matrix with sliding doors and an available manual tranny. It HAS to be quicker than one of those. I looked at the 5 before I bought my Forester and thought the load space was pretty useful. Local dealer was a clown, and factored in as much as anything to drive me to Subaru. Still, an AWD variant would make me take a second look. Especially if they had a better factory roof rack.

nippononly

Well I have no problem with slow in an AWD car most of the time as long as the FE is there. In this case, it wouldn't be unless they made some dramatic changes from the FWD to the AWD version.

Given the difference in FE between the highest FWD cars and the majority of AWD cars, it is pretty sobering just how much gas driving those other two wheels (and adding the weight of the AWD components) sucks up...

ateixeira

Even though I had a bad experience with Ford, it's not really fair to conclude that. The 3.5l Duratec is competitive in terms of output, and the powertrain includes a 6 speed auto tranny.

I just went to NAIAS and looked closely at a CX9. They missed on several points - the 3rd row is impressive, but the 2nd row just isn't that comfy, so seems like that was the compromise.

More importantly, the driver's seat was not well thought out. My right knee rubbed up against a stripe that juts out from the center console. I could not get comfortable. I got out and tried again, and again that console was rubbing against me knee.

The interior seems OK, but nothing to write home about. The Tribeca felt better and even the Hyundai Veracruz impressed me more.

I may still drive a CX9 because we'll get a gift card for doing so, but it's no longer a front-runner. :sick:

ateixeira

I like the Mazda5 but they cut some corners that make it much less appealing. I checked one out again.

First, the driver has an arm rest but the passenger does not. That's just bizarre. If anything, it should be the other way around. That alone is a deal killer as the wife wants a captain's chair feel.

Other miscues? Why no power doors? Why no folding tables from the JDM model. No AWD, plus borderline power for passing and higher speeds.

EPA mpg isn't great, but Consumer Reports got 23mpg, and the best van they tested got 19mpg. That's a pretty significant advantage over a minivan.

But....add more power and AWD and indeed, you may have to give up that advantage.

tifighter

You guys see this one yet?

Link

anythngbutgm

Awesome. Now, let Subie do their thing, just keep them properly funded and don't start throwing Camry clones in the mix and all will be well... :shades:

ateixeira

Toyota is smart. They wouldn't water down Subaru. At most we'd see a Toyota Aygo converted to a Subaru in Europe, and maybe a mini car for the US as well.

I'm not too concerned. An HSD Tribeca actually sounds kinda nice...

css1

How about a version of the Lexus GS with a subaru drivetrain and a Twin turbo 3.6 as Subaru's flagship.

dino001

I thought the same thing. If the Toyota marriage were to work, I think they should position themselves between Toyota brand and Lexus brand with some overlap in price range, but not the product type. Leave econocars to Toyota, lux to Lexus, but get "economical upscale" with nich orientation to Subaru.

daysailer

since the cost, complexity and mass of AWD is hard to justify on pavement in the VA Piedmont. But recently I began to look for a car that is small enough and agile enough to drive daily that is also utilitarian and has a modest towing rating so that I can eliminate the need for a third vehicle. I was surprised to find that the Impreza wagon is the ONLY vehicle that might qualify.

Apparently, Subaru addresses a niche market that no other manufacturer considers worth pursuing. The nearest competitors are the SAAB 9-3 or the Volvo V50, both of which are larger, much more expensive and less reliable.

I hope that Subaru finds the means to remain viable - it may be my next vehicle.

anythngbutgm

As a current Impreza owner, I can honestly say that the car is worth every penny. For the same amount of money that it would have cost me for a mid-grade Civic/Corolla or base model Mazda 3, I got a car with AWD, 5-star safety, and about 27-28mpg with the utility to carry my music gear around or depot runs.

They are great cars and I highly recommend it.

rsholland

http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/2627

ateixeira

Honestly, that's not a bad idea.

While Lexus is wildly successful, the GS lags behind the rest of the lineup. It's the RX that really carries them.

Plus the GS is competing with cars that are much sportier and loaded with character - the Infiniti M, BMW 5, etc. It's basically getting clobbered.

In that class, it's basically missing a personality.

An AWD only GS360X, with the Tribeca's 3.6l tuned highly to run on premium fuel could make 300hp or so, and an H8 would displace 4.8l if they just added 2 cylinders, for close to 400hp.

Does BMW had a 535i with that twin-turbo engine yet? I guess they could also target that model with the engine you suggest. Call it the GS360X Sport.

That segment is so tough. Look at the RL - fabulous vehicle but it just can't make an impact. If they end up depreciating like the last generation did I'll seriously consider a CPO one for the wife since she wants her next car to be a sedan. :shades:

anythngbutgm

H-8? :surprise: Now that would be interesting...

The 2.5l H-4 is a gutsy little engine, even in N/A form. Surprisingly, for such a large displacment, it is actually quite smooth as the revs climb. An H-8 sportcoupe or sedan would be a unique offering, just keep it optional stick w/AWD...

kyfdx

I think the 2008 BMW 535i arrives at dealers next month.. Also available in AWD... 535xi

ateixeira

They shake a bit at idle but smooth out nicely as the revs climb.

The turbo is smoother, IMO.

But try the H6, they're so quiet you can't tell the engine is on. First time we test drove one my wife reached for the ignition because she didn't realize it was on.

Imagine an H8....yum! :shades:

anythngbutgm

Yeah, I noticed that. Sounds like a diesel when you fire it up and at idle it has the subtle diesel "clatter". But, I kinda like it that way actually, I'm not much for overly quiet engines (Unless it's a Mercedes or Lexus).

I have never driven the H-6 because I still have yet to meet an Automatic tranny that I like... Only one that came close was the wifes C-class.

ateixeira

Yeah, I'm grudgingly accepting the fact that my next car (people mover) will be an automatic. I've always had stick shift.

I don't think any vehicles on my short list even come with a manual. Most have manual controls, at least.

british_rover

If it wasn't so hideous I would probably buy a 535i.

Hmhh I wonder how much it would cost to put the twin turbo six cylinder in the old boy 5 series....

ateixeira

The MMC made it look a bit better. The Dame Edna eye lashes above the lights are now clear rather than yellow, so they stand out less.

kyfdx

Yeah... the '08 models have some nice cosmetic improvements...

but, the 5-series is growing on me, anyway.. (or, maybe, I'm growing into it? )

nippononly

there was a little news piece on the radio in the last week or two about how Toyota had christened its new Camry line at SIA and let it roll, so Camrys have been coming out of the Legacy plant in Indiana for at least a week now. Red ink, dryeth thyself up! :-)

And R&T has a little speculation piece this month on the next STI vs Evo X, which they expect to have identical times to 60 mph and through the 1/4-mile. Not to mention, roughly the same price.

Will Tribeca sales pick up with the tweaks they presented this year at the auto show?

ateixeira

I think so...

The problem they're going to have, ironically, is short supply. Now that the Tribeca is sharing assembly line space with the Legacy and Outback, they're not able to make enough of them.

My dealer told me they're not getting enough 07s to really have a good stock. Fitzmall has 7 in stock, I'm sure they'd like to have more. They don't even have one of every model available.

Production of the 08 Tribeca should have started by now. Mayberryguy: can you verify that?

Can't wait to sample one.

mayberryguy

Production of the 08 Tribeca should have started by now. Mayberryguy: can you verify that?

'08 Tribeca production started last week and SIA is ramping Tribeca back to 2 shifts of production again. Production hasn't been both shifts for the Beca's this year until now. Sales of the '08 will improve IMHO.

I'm still undecided on the re-do on the nose. We really love our '06 Beca with some of the '07 upgrades. We will have to decide whether to buy at lease end or lease new one.

ateixeira

Cool. My wife is really putting the pressure on for me to trade up to a bigger vehicle for our frequent trips.

That means dealers should have them ... end of the month, you think? Maybe early June?

kyfdx

..will make a big difference...

(from an unbiased observer..lol)

mayberryguy

That means dealers should have them ... end of the month, you think? Maybe early June?

Early to mid June. Happy hunting!

jeffmc

and with the transmission tweaks, happy lack of hunting, as well!

ateixeira

Yeah, in the video that was on YouTube, they went through a driving cycle with new and old models back-to-back. The old one shifted 22 times and the new one only needed 9 shifts.

I did snatch a screen shot of the torque curve, which is SWEET, and towers a good 50 lb-ft over the old model at lower rpms, which is where it counts.

Can't sneak this by the juice man!

tifighter

Which video is this?

ateixeira

I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.

Just kidding. Bob shared a link a while back, but the link no longer works, and the video was marked private. I watched it while it was still public, and captured that screen shot.

Check it out - you have a good 50 pound-feet or so right from low rpm all the way to about 5000 rpm, basically where your engine spends nearly all its time. :shades:

nippononly

Don't tell me that SOA YET AGAIN has a new sales goal for North America? Hehehehe

http://www.thecarconnection.com/Auto_News/Daily_Auto_News/Toyota_Essential_To_Subaru_Growth.S173.A12205.html

"But the U.S. , overall, is the carmaker's most important market and, if Subaru meets its goals, will see sales surge 15 percent over the next three years, from 200,000 to 230,000"

You would think maybe they could take a break from setting new sales goals...

:-P

rsholland

What, set no goals, and just wing it and hope for the best? Not very smart if you ask me...

For what it's worth (very) early sale reports from Japan regarding the just-on-sale new Impreza are very encouraging, as it's selling at a record pace.

rsholland, "Article Comments - 2008 Subaru Impreza WRX First Drive" #39, 15 Jun 2007 6:55 am

Bob

nippononly

Well, in three years all that will be new and improved are the new Impreza and Forester right? And the new Impreza is hatch-only, except for the WRX sedan?

I dunno, since '02 they have had a complete revamp of the Legacy/Outback line (by far their highest-volume line) and added the Tribeca, and sales are almost flat.

Now they are eliminating the sedan in the low-volume Impreza line while continuing the only-4-speed auto. I haven't seen any news of the new Forester, but since it's based on the Impreza, I wonder if it won't continue to have the only-4-speed auto as well. And with gas prices on everyone's mind lately, the continuation of AWD-only models with combined fuel economy well below 30 mpg is not a plus.

So what exactly will lead to this 15% rise in sales?! :-P

I AM pulling for the diesel in '09 - they need this to bring fuel economy numbers up. But all the automakers are treating diesel as a big unknown right now in terms of future sales numbers. How will Americans respond to them?

And I thought the alliance with Toyota would bear fruit in terms of hybrid powertrains for Subaru models, but so far I haven't heard anything definite about that, so I assume it won't get to production in the 3-year window of this new sales goal.

rsholland

Nope. All US-spec Imprezas, except the yet-to-be-seen STI will come in sedan and hatch.

Nope again. I expect an all-new Legacy and Outback for 2010, which is 2 model years away, as '08s are already at dealers. The Tribeca will follow in 2011.

I expect their diesel here by most likely 2009. I also expect the 4-speed automatic to be replaced within a year or two. Keep in mind the Impreza has a large 2.5 engine, so lacking a 5th gear, while certainly desirable, is not that big a deal. It's more for braggin' rights than anything. My son's '06 Outback Sport and wife's '01 Forester do just fine with their 4EATs.

Bob

anythngbutgm

And with gas prices on everyone's mind lately, the continuation of AWD-only models with combined fuel economy well below 30 mpg is not a plus.

My 07' Impreza wagon gets 29 - 30 mpg with the 5 speed. That's about 75% HW (cruising at 75mph) and 25% back roads. Costs me about 40 bucks to fill up here in N.E. and that's good for 400 miles easy.

Great little cars.

nippononly

If the new Outback/Legacy arrives as a '10, then we are putting our trust in one year of sales of that new model to substantially boost the overall numbers? Despite the fact the last one did NOT achieve the 30K annual boost they are looking for here, and that the market becomes increasingly flooded with AWD crossovers every year?

I know exactly how well the Impreza drives with that big torquey engine, and I am sure the 4-speed auto is just fine, but I have exactly the same comment I have for all the GM fans that defend the continuing use of a 4-speed there: additional gears aren't for bragging rights, they can be used for substantial improvements in fuel economy.

I can't help but be amused. I think the worst threat is over for Subaru now that big bad ol' GM has moseyed on out of the picture, so Subaru can burble along much as it has been, and even if the audience grows more slowly than the overall market, there's no crisis on the horizon, so more power to them. I just had to chuckle reading about yet more "sales goals".

I wonder when the last time was that they made a long-term sales forecast and actually achieved it.