The EV Market Conundrum

PF_Flyer

Edmunds Analysis Says Tax Credit Cuts Put Mainstream Electric Vehicle Market in Jeopardy

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 7, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- As companies such as Tesla and General Motors launch new electric vehicles (EVs) designed to attract the masses, a new report from Edmunds shows that without generous tax incentives, it will be challenging for either company to meet sales goals for these vehicles.

This seems like a pretty bug hurdle. If people aren't going to buy them unless they're subsidized, what kind of market actually exists for EVs?

kyfdx

Elon Musk says his cars will sell, with or without the incentive.

PF_Flyer

Does he mean selling to those with the disposable income and desire to own something unique? Or does he mean consumers will buy them like they buy Altimas, Outbacks, Prius, Accords, or any other mass-marketed vehicle?

fintail

Indeed, amusing claim. It may not matter much to the buyers of Model S and X (who still get it, thanks to insane policy), but no doubt those hankering over a stripped down 35K Model 3 (will it exist?) are probably counting on it.

berri

Ironically, I just read something the other day where Lutz (remember him from the old auto days) said the basic issue with electric vehicles is, and will likely continue to be, that they cost too much. It will be hard to get costs. let alone volume to an affordable production level. Don't know how true that will be because I don't really have any interest in EV. I'd think the charge time might be a pain if you were on the road. Another issue, what if the power goes out when you are recharging it? So I'm not sure you would want one without a conventional auto in the garage next to it. I also find all the green weenie worshipping sort of humorous if you look at how dirty it is to produce big batteries, let alone dispose of them at their end of life.

kyfdx

EVs will eventually be mainstream, just because California has 25% of the car market. Cold weather areas might only make it as far as plug-in hybrids, and assisted electrics, like the Volt and i3.

I think battery technology will make a major jump in the next 5-10 years.

But, hopefully, I'll never have to buy one.

Michaell

I read that article. The interesting take away, for me, was that the used market for EV's may be pretty strong, given the steep depreciation of them.

As a second or third car, it may make sense to go used.

But, I'm with @kyfdx - the i3 or Volt is how I'd go, new.

Mr_Shiftright

If Telsa is aiming to sell in large numbers to the American middle class in the future, that's simply not going to happen, because the middle class will not have the money for exotic (or even mainstream) toys.

berri

If the gov doesn't start prioritizing the middle class before it erodes further, and doesn't start incentivizing families to have children or increase immigration, your bleak assessment Shifty is going to unfortunately be on the mark. Look at where Japan is going, and actually China may be a decade or so behind them.