Are you a current Michigan-based car shopper? A reporter would like to speak with you about your experience; please reach out to PR@Edmunds.com by 7/2 for details.
IMO the problem with 7series lies with one thing: I(-diot) Drive.
Most 7-series customers are, well, seniors, like in their 50s-60s. People at that age group don't do well with complicated computers, let alone the even more complicated I-robot Drive (aka iPod-Drive, iCan't Drive, iDrive-you nuts, etc) :P .
BMW strayed off path way too far with the 7-series, making it less "driver's machine" and more "robot on wheels". Neither lemon nor overpriced, just frustrating to live with for many and not satisfactory for the drivers. :shades:
Thanks Len! I hope everything is going well for you now. We will be patiently waiting for your expert advice on the stock market in particular and the economy in general. Other than a couple of penny stocks, I sold all my stocks that I have been accumulating since the first of March last week with very nice profits. I am thinking that there will be a sizable correction soon (maybe 700 or so points on the Dow). I will then be buying like a madman .
I hope all is well in the new location, and you are saving for the next car in your life....As I suggested long ago, the 911 would be something to aquire at a young age , while you could enjoy it as it should be enjoyed.....For just plain fun a Miata would give it to you as it should be given.....The first one has the-- ponche-- and the second , only you would know your feelings....
For me the 7 bmw is a large car, and probably a fine highway cruiser but really too big..As for the i drive, my wife has acclimated herself to it , and has no complaints, although at first everyone complains....I think the monetary loss is just baked into any expensive car...no matter what...Alot of those cars are company provided, and are handed down for a number of years so the depreciation is spread out....A big number no matter what....The cost of fuel really is minimal when you get to consider the loss of principal......Tony
The automaker will introduce twin-turbo four-cylinder versions of its next generation 3-Series for the 2012 model year, although it remains unclear whether an extra-high mpg diesel would arrive in the fleet. The automaker introduced a nearly 60 mpg version of its diesel 320d (pictured) at the Frankfurt Motor Show last week, although that variant will not be available outside of the European market.
The automaker is also contemplating four-cylinder variants of its X1 and X3 crossovers for the North American market. The lucrative U.S. market hasn’t received a four-cylinder BMW since 1998, when the 318i and Z3 1.9 were offered.
Thanks, Tony. I'm getting used to this place already, except for the constant traffic jam that keeps turning a 30 min ride into a 2 hr crawl. OTOH once I get into the freeway I get to enjoy driving in speed I can never do in US (happy and healthy 120mph). :shades:
I think it's the same everywhere. I mean, how many people can actually afford a 911 before he/she turns 40? From what I see, just a few (excluding Hollywood celebs, of course).
I think it's the same everywhere. I mean, how many people can actually afford a 911 before he/she turns 40? From what I see, just a few (excluding Hollywood celebs, of course).
I guess I was one of the rare exceptions to that. My first Porsche was a 911 (Targa), and I was in my mid thirties. I also bought the only Ferrari I've ever owned at 35. I had them parked side by side, until I sold the Porsche. Ultimately I sold the Ferrari as well and then moved to Hawaii for a few years. All good times, but I was a maniac, in hindsight.
Just to be clear, I worked hard and earned every dime that it took to buy those cars.
I should have invested the money in stocks and real estate... LOL.
I did a hundred twenty five the other day, and although it was in a safe spot , and I felt exilerated, it was also stupid in hind sight...So is life....I should have further clarified my suggestion about the Miata, and it also follows Tagman`s suggestion of investing.....As you will be saving for the next two years, you will see how difficult it is to accumulate funds, and the Miata would leave you with some savings, and at the same time give you alot of fun......When your ship comes in, and it will, you will have plenty of time to get a Porsche.... tony
LOL yeah true, the good thing is unlike in US I can do 120mph everyday (there's practically no speed limit here and even cops don't seem to care.)
Tag, being able to afford a Porsche and even a Ferrari in your 30s is a real achievement, and honestly, very few people can do that, so it's a good thing for you.
By contrast, at least half of the Americans able to afford a Porsche at their 30s are usually from rich families. So you're a minority among minorities and that's definitely something to be proud of. :shades:
Ahhh, yes Tony! Hindsight is so much clearer, but sometimes I hate it. To be perfectly honest, it sometimes hurts too much to look back and see just how stupid I really was soooooo many times.
If given the second chance, I'm not one of those rare lucky guys (if they actually exist) that would say "I'd do the same thing all over again." There are many things I would do differently. That's the truth.
Not only do I believe I would have made wiser decisions... I truly think I would have been a better person as well.
I will pretend that I am ljflx (the one and only Len) here for a moment. The stock market action today was very psychologically negative. After reaching a high of 9917 (close enough to the 10,000 prediction by Len?. I think so.), it crashed before the close and closed down about 81 points to about 9748. I truly believe that this is now the start of a long overdue nice correction to perhaps 9000-9100 on the Dow. At that point, I am going to get in with "all guns blazing".
I don't buy into the correction, at least not yet. I think a lot of it is based on a tandem of an early Fed exit and rising commodity prices causing inflation too soon. But there's no end user support for commodity prices so I don't buy into inflation at this point. The only folks creating inflation are traders and trader based high commodity prices is a house of cards as we saw last year with oil. Just look at oil now. We now have a 27 year high (think about that - 27 years) in distillates. We exited summer with more gas inventory than we enterred summer with and I don't know when that happened last but I'm sure it's a while back. Fundamemtals in oil and so many commodities are now worse than anytime in the past year. So take the inflation argument out and why should there be a correction into rising earnings?
I'd expect a correction to occur IF you get some bad earnings data and a less than rosy outlook off third quarter reporting. But I don't expect that to happen. Do I expect a V recovery? Hardly. We have a reported unemployment rate of near 10% and an actual unemployment rate that's more like 15-18% if you go back to the way unemployment was and should still be measured. I know two lawyers now working in Home Depot and they are now counted as employed.. The fact that so many folks are unemployed is why I can't buy into inflation or support for most commodity prices at this juncture. Most of those bets seem to be made on treating this recession as normal course and that's the last thing in the world it was.
My feeling is that the market pauses, maybe falls back a bit or range trades for the next 20-25 days and then reacts to earnings and outlooks. I expect earnings to be strong because companies have scaled way back in peresonnel and in speculative products and productivity is through the roof as a result plus cash flows are actually stronger than earnngs, because of low capex. So I'm optimistic post October 15th. If I'm wrong on earnings and outlooks than throw this analysis out the window.
I'm also optimistic on 2010 because some decent growth should return and when it does it will be at higher to much higher incremetal margins than in the past. As that growth happens and hiring starts to kick back in then I can see some better fundamental support for oil and other commodities.
As for oil - I' still see a slide coming. Whether it reaches the 40's or not - don't know. But there is sure as hell no support for todays prices anytime soon.
Re - the natural gas question - don't follow it that closely. clearly that market got way oversold and had to bounce. But fundamentals there are also terrible and there's a lot of hope bet on a very cold winter right now. If that starts to materialize then it'll be a good investment. Problem with natural gas is no one uses it as a currency hedge so it gets very little of the bubble effect oil gets. My view of natural gas is it reflects where oil would be if not for dollar hedging and an excess leverage rate in the oil market.
With all that said, I did take profits off the table like you guys but not in as high a percentage. Still the trade I made that I hate the most was selling out Apple on a stoip loss. I love that company and it's business model and it can really run to the sky. On any pullback I'm a buyer.
I'm seeing some pick-up in the media market, which is my home base, and that's a good overall sign. I just hope it's not clouding my vision.
Lastly to my great buddy Tagman - I paid $2.47 for gas (93 octane Sunoco today, 87 oct was $2.17) and that's cheap in my book.
Almost forgot to answer the GL question - but according to my dashboard I've averaged 16.9 mpg for the near 1 year of driving in a mix of highway and local. But living in the burbs, I don't really do much pure city driving. The MPG has been increasing and often on a 144 mile roundtrip to my business I'll average out at about 19-19.5 mpg. I've never gotten 20, not even on a trip down I-95 to Pawley's Island in South Carolina.
to my great buddy Tagman - I paid $2.47 for gas (93 octane Sunoco today, 87 oct was $2.17) and that's cheap in my book.
Hah... you lucky dog! Those are some nice prices indeed! One greedy station here is charging $3.95/gallon for premium, while the rest are around $3.50/gallon. Nothing cheap about any of them. Maybe New Jersey's location, with all those refineries, makes gas cheaper there. Also, California adds a hefty tax on every gallon.
Len, I must admit that I am still overcome with some sort of internal joy when I read your posts about how great that GL has been for you and your family. I guess if I drove a Lexus and gave it that kind of praise you might feel the same way... LOL. I think it's safe to say that Charlie would probably be tickled to hear me say something like that!
I am admittedly a little nervous about stocks right now. Although you suggest that earnings should go up, I think that the current market levels are already factoring that in, so what is left to support a further major market advance? IMO, it would take some very good economic data... which I do expect, but it can't come fast enough. Also, I think the market is currently ahead of itself, and it just makes fundamental sense for it to retreat somewhat over the next weeks. I think October is a tricky month anyway, so I just want to get October over with.
If the market pulls back in October, I will actually be very happy with that... and then I would be plenty comfortable to jump in with a fairly aggressive approach. If there is no October pullback, then I will be more nervous and cautious moving forward.
I agreed with you on the market outlook. That's why I wrote some calls and puts on a handful of stocks that I believe would go no where by year end. I picked up some nat gas near bottom, so if the outcome is dependend on what this winter would be like, then I need Cyclone4's input on this.. My RX would get around 21-23 or better mpg on similar highway trips, but I don't do that often enough to bring up the average mpg. Maybe I should drive it to Florida this winter to make 20+ mpg number sticks...
I'm not sure but I'm getting the impression that GM's stock prices will rise temporarily, due to rising sales thanks to the 60-day refund warranty, only to get slammed down again in the end when the customers return their cars and flood the market with GM used cars, and GM's the one that's gonna have to cover the losses (or IOW, us :sick: )...
Here are my ideas/comments. Len first of all, I totally agree with you about inflation fears. It is a bunch of BS. The fundamentals are indeed bearish for a lot of commodities. Adding to the bearishness in the grains will be an absolutely humongous (largest ever) corn and soybean crop this season. The weather, after a late planting was phenomenal for the the Midwest Cornbelt. Some traders/meteorologists/manipulators have been spewing out early freeze scares ever since the first of September. Instead, we have had fantastic warm and generally dry weather that was ideal for the corn crop (planted quite late in some places. The cool summer has also resulted in a slow pace in its growing cycle) to help reach maturity and therefore be free of frost damage. The soybean crop is already mature enough to be free of any frost damage. People will be amazed how huge this bean and corn crop will turn out to be. We needed a big bean crop due to a shortage of supplies. Anyway, this along with a lot of other commodities is anything but inflationary. That in itself bodes well for the stock market.
However, I just felt that we have come up too much and too fast so, I decided to take nice profits. But Len, I respect your opinion so much that I may be way off base in my thinking that there will be a 700 point correction on the Dow. Thus, I will be itching to get back in again sometime in late October or November after hopefully some sort of a correction. I agree with TagMan that there will be some nervous times in October, but I also agree with you that the earnings for a lot of companies will be decent.
Now as far as Natural Gas goes, this is a totally different animal and basically has a "mind of its own". After crashing to incredible levels of down around 2.50 early this month, there was a very sudden and impressive bounce. It is now trading at about 3.80. For those that don't know that is a $13,000 bounce per contract if one bought the low ( I wish I had, but I am petrified with this market) in early September. I strongly believe that the reason for the big bounce was the release of the upcoming winter forecast by various private weather companies including us. I really do not like making seasonal long range forecasts but customers demand it so we try to do our best. As some of you may know the National Weather Service is going for a warmer than normal winter for much of the Midwest while they are going for near normal for the Northeast. These two regions are by far the most important in determining Natural Gas usage. Based on this, the NWS outlook is bearish for Natural Gas. They are basing their forecast on a moderate to strong El Nino continuing well into the late fall and winter. There is a very strong correlation between moderate/strong El Ninos and a mild to warm winter for the areas of the nation that count. However, in our opinion, this El Nino has been weak and we are of the opinion that it will continue to be weak or perhaps even totally croak later this fall or winter. That does not necessarily mean it will be a cold winter but it gives us a chance for a colder than normal winter again in the areas that count (Chicago to New York). Officially, we are going for a colder than normal winter from about IL eastward to the East Coast. This contradicts the outlook from the NWS, but I actually hope they are right (the older I get the more I hate cold winters).
The other thing that I have been monitoring closely is the incredible lack of sunspots on the sun for the past 2-3 years. The sun should have emerged from the sunspot minimum cycle (about an 11 year cycle) a year ago. But it has been a "dead sun". Some of you may be wondering what all this means. A sunspot is actually a cooler spot on the sun and it looks dark on a telescope. So, if lots of sunspots means cooler, then why am I concerned about a lack of sunspots (implying warmer)? If there are a lot of sunspots on the sun that also means that there is a lot of convection taking place and the result is that more energy is spewed out toward the planets. But with few or no sunspots, there is less energy spewed out. There is quite a bit of concern now that we are entering a long period (several decades of solar inactivity). IF this is indeed the case, then there is no doubt that there will be global cooling. Similar periods in past history of a quiet sun have resulted in significant cooling. One of these periods back in the late 1600s and 1700s was named the Maunder Minimum and coincided with the Little Ice Age. It became quite common at that time for the Thames River in London to freeze over during the winter. Glaciers started to expand around the globe. There have been other periods of solar inactivity since then but of shorter duration. The lack of sunspots on the sun now does not necessarily mean that this winter will be a cold one but it does not hurt the chances. What it does mean is that if it continues like this for several decades, there will be an overall cooling. It is more of a long term effect. Hopefully, if this is indeed a long term pattern of a quiet sun, man made (greenhouse gases) Global Warming will somewhat counteract it. Sorry for the long post, but I thought you folks would find this stuff of interest.
Sorry for the long post, but I thought you folks would find this stuff of interest.
Interesting? How 'bout awesome post. I hadn't paid attention to the sunspots before, but I can tell you with certainty that I will be doing some homework on this in the near future. You definitely sparked my interest. Thank you.
You and I are in similar positions on the market. I think we were a little early in our profit-taking, but we don't want to be greedy. We've done very well. As soon as there is a significant opportunity, no doubt you and I will be back in the market. I really hope that October presents us with a market pull-back. If not, I'll admittedly be ticked off.
Len, I must admit that I am still overcome with some sort of internal joy when I read your posts about how great that GL has been for you and your family. I guess if I drove a Lexus and gave it that kind of praise you might feel the same way... LOL. I think it's safe to say that Charlie would probably be tickled to hear me say something like that!
Tag, I never had a doubt I would love MB. It was reliability that scared me but so far the GL is bulletproof and I have almost as much confidence in it as I do the LS460L. If the reliabilty holds don't be surprised if I try the S-class next September. My local MB dealer was also excellent for service, treating you the same way as the local Lexus dealer does. So far great experience and in all honesty if the GL of the future changes to a style or feature set I don't like I'll be very tempted to buy this at lease end. It's great to thoroughly enjoy 3 different vehicles, all different in driver solutions, at the same time and regarding luxury Lexus and MB are virtually in lock step with each other. Lastly no one should underestimate Infiniti either as they are a great alternative to BMW and Audi IMO.
"... lack of sunspots on the sun for the past 2-3 years. The sun should have emerged from the sunspot minimum cycle (about an 11 year cycle) a year ago "
Charlie, I'm more pessimistic than you in that global warming is coming to an end.
Though I'm not an expert I new Sun is extending its sunspot minimum cycle more time than expected. Yet Earth has experimented in these past 12 years a global warming despite Sun being in its sunspot minimum cycle. Hopefully your and my foresees could meet in the middle in such a way that the extending period of sunspot minimum cycle will at least restrain the global warming to a point.
It's great to thoroughly enjoy 3 different cars, all different in driver solutions at the same time
That itself is a luxury... to be able to go from one type of vehicle and driving dynamic to an entirely different one. When I switch from the Vanden Plas to the 135i, the difference is quite profound, and it makes me appreciate and enjoy each vehicle for what it excels in.
Please continue to keep us all up-to-date on your market perspective... as usual, it will be quite valuable, but especially over these next 6 weeks.
Great post. I'm a big astronomy, cosmology and meteorology buff so I understand weather well. It's really weak vs strong El Nino debate for this winter. Weak Nino's are really great for east coast snows but my general feeling is to side with the NWS on this one and that hurts as I'm a snow lover. The central NJ area I live in is a bit of snow belt in the southern "Miller A" storms, usually topping NYC in snow amounts and we got absolutely clobbered here in the President's day storm with 30" and in the 96 blizzard which was nearly 3 feet here. I've never seen snow like that 96 storm anywhere. Lake effect snows are phenomenal and make great headlines but that snow compresses so fast. I once was in Buffalo for a 28" snowfall and wonderred where the heck it disappeared to the next day - a 24 hour period where the temperature never went past 18 degrees. Huge difference between the density of storm snow and lake effect snow. Last weak El nino was a few years ago and it was very cold but unusually we had more sleet than snow. In one storm on Valentines day I had 5-6" of sleet (I called it a sleet blizzard as we actually had blowing and drifting sleet at 18-20 degrees and 30-40mph winds) and just south of me they had about 2-3" of sleet followed by paralyzing freezing rain in an even worse scenario. That sleet took longer to melt off than 24" of snow would. A few weeks later we had another 3" sleet storm at very cold temps. I sometimes post on a local weatherboard and you can't believe how frustrated that group of people was thanks to sleet falling in temperaturtes that would support a major blizzard.
I've also been following the sunspot cycle weakness and it's not getting much news but if it keeps it up it will.
Global warming - believe man is just a small culprit and that 95% of it is natural. I'm not sure there's much anyone can do about it to be honest. Plus if you think about it man's development leading to adapting technology to harness energy is really a part of nature. Not everything in nature is good.
First of all, thanks for the compliment. Len, I'm not sure I understand you when you state that "it's really weak vs strong El Nino debate for this winter". All I know is that there is almost a 1 to 1 correlation between a moderate/strong El Nino and a warm winter across the northern U.S. along with a wet a coolish winter in the deep South and Southeast. A weak or no El Nino suggests just a chance for a cold winter. It certainly does not guarantee it. I use to love snowy and cold winters when I lived in MA. I still enjoy BIG snow storms, but I hate the bitter cold. And it gets bitterly cold at times here in IA. As I stated on my original post, I hope the NWS and now also you are correct about a mild winter. My winter outlook is based on a weak or a totally demised El Nino along with some background consideration on the lack of solar activity.
As far as Global Warming (human caused) is concerned, I have a stronger conviction than some of you guys that it is and has been real. I have been in close contact with a well known professor/researcher at Iowa State University, who is an expert in the field. I am by no means an expert on Climate Change/Global Warming. But all I know is that that the laws of Physics say that a greenhouse gas such as CO2 will trap the outgoing radiation. Since it is a very sensitive balance, man made greenhouse gases probably do have a significant effect. According to my contact at ISU, the evidence the past 30-40 years has been overwhelming for human induced Global Warming. And please, I am not trying to politicize this by any means.
Changing the subject back to the stock market, the very negative action from yesterday is indeed carrying on to today's session. Obviously, the bearish new housing sales from early this morning are not hurting the down side cause. Give me several more hundred points on the downside for the Dow and Tag and I will start getting back in. I would be ticked off if today's low is about it on the downside. I doubt it, but anything is possible. I am hoping that a low will be reached sometime in October.
From my experience the stronger the El Nino the more east the cold. Weak is uaually the perfect prescription for cold and snow chances here. Moderate usually means less cold here as too many airmasses go north and then east of us and strong is almost a spring/summer pattern with cold spells being few and far between. Most of the bigger snowfall years in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England winters happened in weal El Nino winters.
This is one terricfic post. I will go with your contrarian view on this coming winter and hold on to my 1/4 natural gas contract. Now if I can only get some expert advices on where the Florida housing market is heading, then I am a very happy camper . Just like you, I can't stand the bitter cold in the winter either, so I am delaying the acquisition of a midlife crisis typed vehicle and looking to by a house in Florida For the price of a 911tt, I can buy a decent 3br house in central/southern FL, I think it's a great buying opportunity there.
As far as Global Warming (human caused) is concerned, I have a stronger conviction than some of you guys that it is and has been real.
I agree with you on this. Even if we are wrong, it makes good sense to stop polluting our planet. Another area that I am concerned about is the level of plastics that are now broken down to near microscopic size and that have entered the food chain. The staggering amount of plastic in our environment is now beyond comprehension. Every one of us has too much of it in our bloodstream already.
Charlie, I'm more pessimistic than you in that global warming is coming to an end
Yeah, now after your last post I feel we are in the same boat on this.
Nature, mankind included, is warming the planet in recent years. Though the responsibility of mankind is to a point a consequence of growth, both in population and industry, any effort to reduce the warming and pollution should be promoted and implemented, IMO.
Usually (but not always), cold winters coincide with heavier than normal snowfall in the Northeast. But it is possible to get a few big snow storms there even on a warmer than normal winter since a snow event is typically a 24 hour type of event. Obviously, there will be many more days with snow on the ground during a colder than normal winter as opposed to one that is warmer than normal.
It is true that the correlation is stronger for warmer than normal here in the Midwest as opposed to the Northeast during moderate/strong El Ninos. It makes sense that the bigger snowfall years were those that had a weak El Nino (likely to be colder). When you say that you agree with the NWS, are you thinking of near normal temperatures for the winter in the Northeast or are you thinking it will be warmer than normal?
Yeah, now after your last post I feel we are in the same boat on this.
I thought there was some confusion there Jose. I probably confused you when I was talking about global cooling associated with long periods of solar inactivity. But human induced Global Warming will I believe still be in force in spite of the cooling caused by a long period of a "quiet sun". The human induced Global Warming will tend to moderate the cooling caused by a long period of a "quiet sun".
I agree with you on this. Even if we are wrong, it makes good sense to stop polluting our planet. Another area that I am concerned about is the level of plastics that are now broken down to near microscopic size and that have entered the food chain. The staggering amount of plastic in our environment is now beyond comprehension. Every one of us has too much of it in our bloodstream already.
In addition, there are many pharmaceuticals and chemicals that are finding their way into our bodies one way or another. My FIL past away on 9/8 after a long fight with Alzheimer's. I have a sneaking suspicion that the increase in expected cases of this horrifying disease is due to environmental poisoning to some extent.
As an aside, I agree with the Len's assessment of the market direction and take the view we should have a colder winter as Charlie has intimated.
Thanks for all of the awesome posts. You can't get better information anywhere, afaic.
I wish I could give you good advice on the FL housing market. I also want to buy a house either in FL or in the Southwest, but the EW refuses to go along with the idea of owning two homes She says we can always rent a place for a few weeks in the winter anywhere we want. There is merit to this, but I was thinking that buying a home somewhere in the South will never be as cheap as it is now and likely will continue to be during the next year or so.
I was thinking that buying a home somewhere in the South will never be as cheap as it is now and likely will continue to be during the next year or so.
I agree. If you can comfortably afford to buy one now... you really should look into it. As the baby boomers increasingly retire and look for suitable retirement housing, the demand will increase and so will the prices. Not just in the South, but all the good retirement locations.
Ultimately, at some point when the boomer's population decreases, it is conceivable that there might actually be a glut of these properties... but I wouldn't worry about that just yet. For now... it makes good sense for two reasons... the historically low prices due to the economy, and the ever-increasing demand for retirement housing. These two factors are strong reasons to expect prices to appreciate nicely over the next decade... IMHO.
Charlie, here's a little counter to the GW forecast:
When a leading proponent for one point of view suddenly starts batting for the other side, it's usually newsworthy. So why was a speech last week by Professor Mojib Latif of Germany's Leibniz Institute not given more prominence?
Latif is one of the leading climate modellers in the world. He is the recipient of several international climate-study prizes and a lead author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He has contributed significantly to the IPCC's last two five-year reports that have stated unequivocally that man-made greenhouse emissions are causing the planet to warm dangerously.
Yet last week in Geneva, at the UN's World Climate Conference--an annual gathering of the so-called "scientific consensus" on man-made climate change --Latif conceded the Earth has not warmed for nearly a decade and that we are likely entering "one or even two decades during which temperatures cool."
The global warming theory has been based all along on the idea that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans would absorb much of the greenhouse warming caused by a rise in man-made carbon dioxide, then they would let off that heat and warm the atmosphere and the land. But as Latif pointed out, the Atlantic, and particularly the North Atlantic, has been cooling instead. And it looks set to continue a cooling phase for 10 to 20 more years.
But it is increasingly clear that global warming is on hiatus for the time being. And that is not what the UN, the alarmist scientists or environmentalists predicted. For the past dozen years, since the Kyoto accords were signed in 1997, it has been beaten into our heads with the force and repetition of the rowing drum on a slave galley that the Earth is warming and will continue to warm rapidly through this century until we reach deadly temperatures around 2100.
This just goes to show that forecast predictions for this topic on such a global scale can be way off just like the predictions for the stock market. Future factors have a way of making sure we are all on our toes!
The thing that scares me most about the current market is that the flaws in the financial system are still in place. Sort of like the C02 in the atmosphere.
Warning! You are entering the obtuse, vague and heavily metaphorical portion of our trip through the life and times of LD.... But, just a brief detour...
I lurk here, not as often as in the past. Due to my personal situation, my joy in discussing, shopping and considering buying luxury cars is (as of this writing, and forseable future) almost non-existent. Almost...
While physical health continues to be good (as far as I'm aware! And I'm not putting back on the weight I've lost in the last several months although the demon ice cream has returned to grapple with my will. Ice cream 9, Will 0.), other changes, while I understand the logic and emotion behind them, distress me to no end. Damage may have been caused that may not be reversible, but time will tell. If a heart breaks on the Autobahn and, because you are in the right lane, there is no one to feel it, does it matter?
My TL, while not receiving nearly the TLC it has in the past, with its new windshield (thanks, maintenance truck spewing gravel!) and seemingly myriad more scratches, continues merrily along. Unfortunately, it has lost its garage for the coming winter, so I'm planning on pre-emptively striking with a new battery. And, note to self, New England Industrial Strength ice scraper .
Like all, I know not what the future holds, but I'm reading some very slight shifts in the prevailing winds which hopefully will be propelling this sloop towards a very distant, brighter horizon. But I fear continued rough sailing ahead, for a period longer than I would have ever imagined. Or desired. I can only hope that a fog lifts as expediently as possible allowing for much clearer and rational vision. Yet, even so, no smooth sailing ahead.
Wow, I'm not a sailor! Where did that metaphorical paragraph come from???
Until brighter skies are warming all that I am, I shall continue to attempt to navigate these shark infested waters, somewhat alone... Ok, my soul has been possessed by a somewhat depressed Jimmy Buffett spirit...! :confuse:
And, I know I am not the only lonely soul out here in the ethernet with life issues with which to deal. I hope that those that have shared theirs in the past are indeed at, or much closer to, that brighter horizon that I hope to be sailing oh so slowly towards.
Still fancying himself a frustrated writer,
Laurasdada
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
I think that there is plenty of scientific evidence to support the fact or premise that global warming can be caused by the emissions of man-made air contaminents.
But even if there is a realistic perspective that global warming is due to other causes, or that global warming won't happen anyway... or, if nature has another counter measure that is happening concurrently, such as sunspot activity, it is never a constructive argument or perspective to try to support man-made contamination. Plastics, pesticides, radiation, pharmaceuticals, petrochemical, and many air, ground, water and food contaminents such as mercury, arsenic, selenium, and thousands of poisonous compounds are never a good thing, especially when there are alternatives.
Regardless of anyone's position on GW, it is best to be good custodians of this planet. And that same approach applies to those that follow the Bible, and/or for those that simply love nature.
Man it is good to hear from you......You have been on everyone`s mind, so thanks for surfacing......:)
I guess you have a good idea what the weather is going to be like, thanks to the very informative posts we have been treated to today, and it also seems as though the financial world is basicly strengthening---another good omem----I`m sure we would all get out the boat and row if it would help you---so just keep on a positive course Tony
It is SO great to hear from you. Keep the faith and it will get better for you.
I hope the Red Sox and Patriots bring you some joy the next several weeks or months. The Pats will put it all together very shortly with Brady and Belichic. I have a good feeling about the Red Sox.
The thing that scares me most about the current market is that the flaws in the financial system are still in place. Sort of like the C02 in the atmosphere.
How true...
Global Warming/enviornment:
I think we borrow the environment from our kids and it is/should be our duty/moral/ethics to return it to them in same condition, but past decade with strategic bankruptcies, hiding behind I-had-no-choice, and media’s yellow journalism have shown that humans are please-me-now race and the environment can go to hell.
I believe the only way to reduce global warming is to decrease end-to-end (from production to disposal of used energy source) consumption and not try to compensate increased energy usage by alternative “natural energy” aka solar, wind, hydrogen fuel, etc. Our needs will just expand/increase with available energy sources.
I hope the alternative energy does not have any unforeseen consequences Ethenol = corn = food shortages/disapperance of forest Hydrogen = water shortage (?)
In the end Nature has a way of showing humans that it (Nature) is bigger than us (human) and do not play/mess with it(nature)...
Apparently the Intuitive Parking Assist give you visual and audio cues when as to your distance from surrounding objects. The Guidance System is the automated piece that does the work while the drive only has to apply the brakes in the process.
On Mercedes, the car won't self park but the sensors will tell you if you can fit in the open space. I think all this stuff, along with I-drive is un-needed and unwanted by a very high majority of people. Another thing I forget that I have is the HDD for music and who erases that anyway. If you lease and return the vehicle does someone inherit your music unlicensed?.
On Mercedes, the car won't self park but the sensors will tell you if you can fot in the space. I think all this stuff, along with I-drive is un-needed.
IMO, the only real helpful features for parking are the sensors in the bumpers, particularly the rear ones, and a back-up camera can be helpful. As far as iDrive goes, I've had no major problems with it, but some parts of the GUI are illogical. Spock would have rejected the feature.
I recall that my grandmother, may she rest in peace, had "curb feelers" on her old Ford Falcon. Maybe they are the best parking assistants of all.
Comments
Most 7-series customers are, well, seniors, like in their 50s-60s. People at that age group don't do well with complicated computers, let alone the even more complicated I-robot Drive (aka iPod-Drive, iCan't Drive, iDrive-you nuts, etc) :P .
BMW strayed off path way too far with the 7-series, making it less "driver's machine" and more "robot on wheels". Neither lemon nor overpriced, just frustrating to live with for many and not satisfactory for the drivers. :shades:
I hope all is well in the new location, and you are saving for the next car in your life....As I suggested long ago, the 911 would be something to aquire at a young age , while you could enjoy it as it should be enjoyed.....For just plain fun a Miata would give it to you as it should be given.....The first one has the-- ponche-- and the second , only you would know your feelings....
For me the 7 bmw is a large car, and probably a fine highway cruiser but really too big..As for the i drive, my wife has acclimated herself to it , and has no complaints, although at first everyone complains....I think the monetary loss is just baked into any expensive car...no matter what...Alot of those cars are company provided, and are handed down for a number of years so the depreciation is spread out....A big number no matter what....The cost of fuel really is minimal when you get to consider the loss of principal......Tony
The automaker is also contemplating four-cylinder variants of its X1 and X3 crossovers for the North American market. The lucrative U.S. market hasn’t received a four-cylinder BMW since 1998, when the 318i and Z3 1.9 were offered.
4 pot Bimmer
Regards,
OW
Most 911 drivers I see on the road are older guys that would qualify for middle age crisis.
I guess I was one of the rare exceptions to that. My first Porsche was a 911 (Targa), and I was in my mid thirties. I also bought the only Ferrari I've ever owned at 35. I had them parked side by side, until I sold the Porsche. Ultimately I sold the Ferrari as well and then moved to Hawaii for a few years. All good times, but I was a maniac, in hindsight.
Just to be clear, I worked hard and earned every dime that it took to buy those cars.
I should have invested the money in stocks and real estate... LOL.
TM
tony
Tag, being able to afford a Porsche and even a Ferrari in your 30s is a real achievement, and honestly, very few people can do that, so it's a good thing for you.
By contrast, at least half of the Americans able to afford a Porsche at their 30s are usually from rich families. So you're a minority among minorities and that's definitely something to be proud of. :shades:
If given the second chance, I'm not one of those rare lucky guys (if they actually exist) that would say "I'd do the same thing all over again." There are many things I would do differently. That's the truth.
Not only do I believe I would have made wiser decisions... I truly think I would have been a better person as well.
Live and learn... (or not).
TM
Anyway, gentlemen, your posts are missed here.
I hope your cars are running well, and your lives are running even better.
TM
I don't buy into the correction, at least not yet. I think a lot of it is based on a tandem of an early Fed exit and rising commodity prices causing inflation too soon. But there's no end user support for commodity prices so I don't buy into inflation at this point. The only folks creating inflation are traders and trader based high commodity prices is a house of cards as we saw last year with oil. Just look at oil now. We now have a 27 year high (think about that - 27 years) in distillates. We exited summer with more gas inventory than we enterred summer with and I don't know when that happened last but I'm sure it's a while back. Fundamemtals in oil and so many commodities are now worse than anytime in the past year. So take the inflation argument out and why should there be a correction into rising earnings?
I'd expect a correction to occur IF you get some bad earnings data and a less than rosy outlook off third quarter reporting. But I don't expect that to happen. Do I expect a V recovery? Hardly. We have a reported unemployment rate of near 10% and an actual unemployment rate that's more like 15-18% if you go back to the way unemployment was and should still be measured. I know two lawyers now working in Home Depot and they are now counted as employed.. The fact that so many folks are unemployed is why I can't buy into inflation or support for most commodity prices at this juncture. Most of those bets seem to be made on treating this recession as normal course and that's the last thing in the world it was.
My feeling is that the market pauses, maybe falls back a bit or range trades for the next 20-25 days and then reacts to earnings and outlooks. I expect earnings to be strong because companies have scaled way back in peresonnel and in speculative products and productivity is through the roof as a result plus cash flows are actually stronger than earnngs, because of low capex. So I'm optimistic post October 15th. If I'm wrong on earnings and outlooks than throw this analysis out the window.
I'm also optimistic on 2010 because some decent growth should return and when it does it will be at higher to much higher incremetal margins than in the past. As that growth happens and hiring starts to kick back in then I can see some better fundamental support for oil and other commodities.
As for oil - I' still see a slide coming. Whether it reaches the 40's or not - don't know. But there is sure as hell no support for todays prices anytime soon.
Re - the natural gas question - don't follow it that closely. clearly that market got way oversold and had to bounce. But fundamentals there are also terrible and there's a lot of hope bet on a very cold winter right now. If that starts to materialize then it'll be a good investment. Problem with natural gas is no one uses it as a currency hedge so it gets very little of the bubble effect oil gets. My view of natural gas is it reflects where oil would be if not for dollar hedging and an excess leverage rate in the oil market.
With all that said, I did take profits off the table like you guys but not in as high a percentage. Still the trade I made that I hate the most was selling out Apple on a stoip loss. I love that company and it's business model and it can really run to the sky. On any pullback I'm a buyer.
I'm seeing some pick-up in the media market, which is my home base, and that's a good overall sign. I just hope it's not clouding my vision.
Lastly to my great buddy Tagman - I paid $2.47 for gas (93 octane Sunoco today, 87 oct was $2.17) and that's cheap in my book.
Almost forgot to answer the GL question - but according to my dashboard I've averaged 16.9 mpg for the near 1 year of driving in a mix of highway and local. But living in the burbs, I don't really do much pure city driving. The MPG has been increasing and often on a 144 mile roundtrip to my business I'll average out at about 19-19.5 mpg. I've never gotten 20, not even on a trip down I-95 to Pawley's Island in South Carolina.
Hah... you lucky dog! Those are some nice prices indeed! One greedy station here is charging $3.95/gallon for premium, while the rest are around $3.50/gallon. Nothing cheap about any of them. Maybe New Jersey's location, with all those refineries, makes gas cheaper there. Also, California adds a hefty tax on every gallon.
Len, I must admit that I am still overcome with some sort of internal joy when I read your posts about how great that GL has been for you and your family. I guess if I drove a Lexus and gave it that kind of praise you might feel the same way... LOL. I think it's safe to say that Charlie would probably be tickled to hear me say something like that!
I am admittedly a little nervous about stocks right now. Although you suggest that earnings should go up, I think that the current market levels are already factoring that in, so what is left to support a further major market advance? IMO, it would take some very good economic data... which I do expect, but it can't come fast enough. Also, I think the market is currently ahead of itself, and it just makes fundamental sense for it to retreat somewhat over the next weeks. I think October is a tricky month anyway, so I just want to get October over with.
If the market pulls back in October, I will actually be very happy with that... and then I would be plenty comfortable to jump in with a fairly aggressive approach. If there is no October pullback, then I will be more nervous and cautious moving forward.
BTW, glad to see you here...
TM
My RX would get around 21-23 or better mpg on similar highway trips, but I don't do that often enough to bring up the average mpg. Maybe I should drive it to Florida this winter to make 20+ mpg number sticks...
It's a silly tactic, really, IMO....
What do you think?
Here are my ideas/comments. Len first of all, I totally agree with you about inflation fears. It is a bunch of BS. The fundamentals are indeed bearish for a lot of commodities. Adding to the bearishness in the grains will be an absolutely humongous (largest ever) corn and soybean crop this season. The weather, after a late planting was phenomenal for the the Midwest Cornbelt. Some traders/meteorologists/manipulators have been spewing out early freeze scares ever since the first of September. Instead, we have had fantastic warm and generally dry weather that was ideal for the corn crop (planted quite late in some places. The cool summer has also resulted in a slow pace in its growing cycle) to help reach maturity and therefore be free of frost damage. The soybean crop is already mature enough to be free of any frost damage. People will be amazed how huge this bean and corn crop will turn out to be. We needed a big bean crop due to a shortage of supplies. Anyway, this along with a lot of other commodities is anything but inflationary. That in itself bodes well for the stock market.
However, I just felt that we have come up too much and too fast so, I decided to take nice profits. But Len, I respect your opinion so much that I may be way off base in my thinking that there will be a 700 point correction on the Dow. Thus, I will be itching to get back in again sometime in late October or November after hopefully some sort of a correction. I agree with TagMan that there will be some nervous times in October, but I also agree with you that the earnings for a lot of companies will be decent.
Now as far as Natural Gas goes, this is a totally different animal and basically has a "mind of its own". After crashing to incredible levels of down around 2.50 early this month, there was a very sudden and impressive bounce. It is now trading at about 3.80. For those that don't know that is a $13,000 bounce per contract if one bought the low ( I wish I had, but I am petrified with this market) in early September. I strongly believe that the reason for the big bounce was the release of the upcoming winter forecast by various private weather companies including us. I really do not like making seasonal long range forecasts but customers demand it so we try to do our best. As some of you may know the National Weather Service is going for a warmer than normal winter for much of the Midwest while they are going for near normal for the Northeast. These two regions are by far the most important in determining Natural Gas usage. Based on this, the NWS outlook is bearish for Natural Gas. They are basing their forecast on a moderate to strong El Nino continuing well into the late fall and winter. There is a very strong correlation between moderate/strong El Ninos and a mild to warm winter for the areas of the nation that count. However, in our opinion, this El Nino has been weak and we are of the opinion that it will continue to be weak or perhaps even totally croak later this fall or winter. That does not necessarily mean it will be a cold winter but it gives us a chance for a colder than normal winter again in the areas that count (Chicago to New York). Officially, we are going for a colder than normal winter from about IL eastward to the East Coast. This contradicts the outlook from the NWS, but I actually hope they are right (the older I get the more I hate cold winters).
The other thing that I have been monitoring closely is the incredible lack of sunspots on the sun for the past 2-3 years. The sun should have emerged from the sunspot minimum cycle (about an 11 year cycle) a year ago. But it has been a "dead sun". Some of you may be wondering what all this means. A sunspot is actually a cooler spot on the sun and it looks dark on a telescope. So, if lots of sunspots means cooler, then why am I concerned about a lack of sunspots (implying warmer)? If there are a lot of sunspots on the sun that also means that there is a lot of convection taking place and the result is that more energy is spewed out toward the planets. But with few or no sunspots, there is less energy spewed out. There is quite a bit of concern now that we are entering a long period (several decades of solar inactivity). IF this is indeed the case, then there is no doubt that there will be global cooling. Similar periods in past history of a quiet sun have resulted in significant cooling. One of these periods back in the late 1600s and 1700s was named the Maunder Minimum and coincided with the Little Ice Age. It became quite common at that time for the Thames River in London to freeze over during the winter. Glaciers started to expand around the globe. There have been other periods of solar inactivity since then but of shorter duration. The lack of sunspots on the sun now does not necessarily mean that this winter will be a cold one but it does not hurt the chances. What it does mean is that if it continues like this for several decades, there will be an overall cooling. It is more of a long term effect. Hopefully, if this is indeed a long term pattern of a quiet sun, man made (greenhouse gases) Global Warming will somewhat counteract it. Sorry for the long post, but I thought you folks would find this stuff of interest.
Interesting? How 'bout awesome post. I hadn't paid attention to the sunspots before, but I can tell you with certainty that I will be doing some homework on this in the near future. You definitely sparked my interest. Thank you.
You and I are in similar positions on the market. I think we were a little early in our profit-taking, but we don't want to be greedy. We've done very well. As soon as there is a significant opportunity, no doubt you and I will be back in the market. I really hope that October presents us with a market pull-back. If not, I'll admittedly be ticked off.
TM
Tag, I never had a doubt I would love MB. It was reliability that scared me but so far the GL is bulletproof and I have almost as much confidence in it as I do the LS460L. If the reliabilty holds don't be surprised if I try the S-class next September. My local MB dealer was also excellent for service, treating you the same way as the local Lexus dealer does. So far great experience and in all honesty if the GL of the future changes to a style or feature set I don't like I'll be very tempted to buy this at lease end. It's great to thoroughly enjoy 3 different vehicles, all different in driver solutions, at the same time and regarding luxury Lexus and MB are virtually in lock step with each other. Lastly no one should underestimate Infiniti either as they are a great alternative to BMW and Audi IMO.
Charlie, I'm more pessimistic than you in that global warming is coming to an end.
Though I'm not an expert I new Sun is extending its sunspot minimum cycle more time than expected. Yet Earth has experimented in these past 12 years a global warming despite Sun being in its sunspot minimum cycle. Hopefully your and my foresees could meet in the middle in such a way that the extending period of sunspot minimum cycle will at least restrain the global warming to a point.
Regards,
Jose
That itself is a luxury... to be able to go from one type of vehicle and driving dynamic to an entirely different one. When I switch from the Vanden Plas to the 135i, the difference is quite profound, and it makes me appreciate and enjoy each vehicle for what it excels in.
Please continue to keep us all up-to-date on your market perspective... as usual, it will be quite valuable, but especially over these next 6 weeks.
TM
Great post. I'm a big astronomy, cosmology and meteorology buff so I understand weather well. It's really weak vs strong El Nino debate for this winter. Weak Nino's are really great for east coast snows but my general feeling is to side with the NWS on this one and that hurts as I'm a snow lover. The central NJ area I live in is a bit of snow belt in the southern "Miller A" storms, usually topping NYC in snow amounts and we got absolutely clobbered here in the President's day storm with 30" and in the 96 blizzard which was nearly 3 feet here. I've never seen snow like that 96 storm anywhere. Lake effect snows are phenomenal and make great headlines but that snow compresses so fast. I once was in Buffalo for a 28" snowfall and wonderred where the heck it disappeared to the next day - a 24 hour period where the temperature never went past 18 degrees. Huge difference between the density of storm snow and lake effect snow. Last weak El nino was a few years ago and it was very cold but unusually we had more sleet than snow. In one storm on Valentines day I had 5-6" of sleet (I called it a sleet blizzard as we actually had blowing and drifting sleet at 18-20 degrees and 30-40mph winds) and just south of me they had about 2-3" of sleet followed by paralyzing freezing rain in an even worse scenario. That sleet took longer to melt off than 24" of snow would. A few weeks later we had another 3" sleet storm at very cold temps. I sometimes post on a local weatherboard and you can't believe how frustrated that group of people was thanks to sleet falling in temperaturtes that would support a major blizzard.
I've also been following the sunspot cycle weakness and it's not getting much news but if it keeps it up it will.
Global warming - believe man is just a small culprit and that 95% of it is natural. I'm not sure there's much anyone can do about it to be honest. Plus if you think about it man's development leading to adapting technology to harness energy is really a part of nature. Not everything in nature is good.
First of all, thanks for the compliment. Len, I'm not sure I understand you when you state that "it's really weak vs strong El Nino debate for this winter". All I know is that there is almost a 1 to 1 correlation between a moderate/strong El Nino and a warm winter across the northern U.S. along with a wet a coolish winter in the deep South and Southeast. A weak or no El Nino suggests just a chance for a cold winter. It certainly does not guarantee it. I use to love snowy and cold winters when I lived in MA. I still enjoy BIG snow storms, but I hate the bitter cold. And it gets bitterly cold at times here in IA. As I stated on my original post, I hope the NWS and now also you are correct about a mild winter. My winter outlook is based on a weak or a totally demised El Nino along with some background consideration on the lack of solar activity.
As far as Global Warming (human caused) is concerned, I have a stronger conviction than some of you guys that it is and has been real. I have been in close contact with a well known professor/researcher at Iowa State University, who is an expert in the field. I am by no means an expert on Climate Change/Global Warming. But all I know is that that the laws of Physics say that a greenhouse gas such as CO2 will trap the outgoing radiation. Since it is a very sensitive balance, man made greenhouse gases probably do have a significant effect. According to my contact at ISU, the evidence the past 30-40 years has been overwhelming for human induced Global Warming. And please, I am not trying to politicize this by any means.
Changing the subject back to the stock market, the very negative action from yesterday is indeed carrying on to today's session. Obviously, the bearish new housing sales from early this morning are not hurting the down side cause. Give me several more hundred points on the downside for the Dow and Tag and I will start getting back in. I would be ticked off if today's low is about it on the downside. I doubt it, but anything is possible. I am hoping that a low will be reached sometime in October.
Now if I can only get some expert advices on where the Florida housing market is heading, then I am a very happy camper . Just like you, I can't stand the bitter cold in the winter either, so I am delaying the acquisition of a midlife crisis typed vehicle and looking to by a house in Florida
I agree with you on this. Even if we are wrong, it makes good sense to stop polluting our planet. Another area that I am concerned about is the level of plastics that are now broken down to near microscopic size and that have entered the food chain. The staggering amount of plastic in our environment is now beyond comprehension. Every one of us has too much of it in our bloodstream already.
You would be amazed if you Google this issue.
TM
Yeah, now after your last post I feel we are in the same boat on this.
Nature, mankind included, is warming the planet in recent years. Though the responsibility of mankind is to a point a consequence of growth, both in population and industry, any effort to reduce the warming and pollution should be promoted and implemented, IMO.
Regards,
Jose
It is true that the correlation is stronger for warmer than normal here in the Midwest as opposed to the Northeast during moderate/strong El Ninos. It makes sense that the bigger snowfall years were those that had a weak El Nino (likely to be colder). When you say that you agree with the NWS, are you thinking of near normal temperatures for the winter in the Northeast or are you thinking it will be warmer than normal?
I thought there was some confusion there Jose. I probably confused you when I was talking about global cooling associated with long periods of solar inactivity. But human induced Global Warming will I believe still be in force in spite of the cooling caused by a long period of a "quiet sun". The human induced Global Warming will tend to moderate the cooling caused by a long period of a "quiet sun".
In addition, there are many pharmaceuticals and chemicals that are finding their way into our bodies one way or another. My FIL past away on 9/8 after a long fight with Alzheimer's. I have a sneaking suspicion that the increase in expected cases of this horrifying disease is due to environmental poisoning to some extent.
As an aside, I agree with the Len's assessment of the market direction and take the view we should have a colder winter as Charlie has intimated.
Thanks for all of the awesome posts. You can't get better information anywhere, afaic.
Regards,
OW
I agree. If you can comfortably afford to buy one now... you really should look into it. As the baby boomers increasingly retire and look for suitable retirement housing, the demand will increase and so will the prices. Not just in the South, but all the good retirement locations.
Ultimately, at some point when the boomer's population decreases, it is conceivable that there might actually be a glut of these properties... but I wouldn't worry about that just yet. For now... it makes good sense for two reasons... the historically low prices due to the economy, and the ever-increasing demand for retirement housing. These two factors are strong reasons to expect prices to appreciate nicely over the next decade... IMHO.
TM
Warmer. I'm expecting a moderate to strong Nino.
When a leading proponent for one point of view suddenly starts batting for the other side, it's usually newsworthy. So why was a speech last week by Professor Mojib Latif of Germany's Leibniz Institute not given more prominence?
Latif is one of the leading climate modellers in the world. He is the recipient of several international climate-study prizes and a lead author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He has contributed significantly to the IPCC's last two five-year reports that have stated unequivocally that man-made greenhouse emissions are causing the planet to warm dangerously.
Yet last week in Geneva, at the UN's World Climate Conference--an annual gathering of the so-called "scientific consensus" on man-made climate change --Latif conceded the Earth has not warmed for nearly a decade and that we are likely entering "one or even two decades during which temperatures cool."
The global warming theory has been based all along on the idea that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans would absorb much of the greenhouse warming caused by a rise in man-made carbon dioxide, then they would let off that heat and warm the atmosphere and the land. But as Latif pointed out, the Atlantic, and particularly the North Atlantic, has been cooling instead. And it looks set to continue a cooling phase for 10 to 20 more years.
But it is increasingly clear that global warming is on hiatus for the time being. And that is not what the UN, the alarmist scientists or environmentalists predicted. For the past dozen years, since the Kyoto accords were signed in 1997, it has been beaten into our heads with the force and repetition of the rowing drum on a slave galley that the Earth is warming and will continue to warm rapidly through this century until we reach deadly temperatures around 2100.
Here is the full article. Scientists pull an about face on global warming
This just goes to show that forecast predictions for this topic on such a global scale can be way off just like the predictions for the stock market. Future factors have a way of making sure we are all on our toes!
The thing that scares me most about the current market is that the flaws in the financial system are still in place. Sort of like the C02 in the atmosphere.
Regards
OW
Warning! You are entering the obtuse, vague and heavily metaphorical portion of our trip through the life and times of LD.... But, just a brief detour...
I lurk here, not as often as in the past. Due to my personal situation, my joy in discussing, shopping and considering buying luxury cars is (as of this writing, and forseable future) almost non-existent. Almost...
While physical health continues to be good (as far as I'm aware! And I'm not putting back on the weight I've lost in the last several months although the demon ice cream has returned to grapple with my will. Ice cream 9, Will 0.), other changes, while I understand the logic and emotion behind them, distress me to no end. Damage may have been caused that may not be reversible, but time will tell. If a heart breaks on the Autobahn and, because you are in the right lane, there is no one to feel it, does it matter?
My TL, while not receiving nearly the TLC it has in the past, with its new windshield (thanks, maintenance truck spewing gravel!) and seemingly myriad more scratches, continues merrily along. Unfortunately, it has lost its garage for the coming winter, so I'm planning on pre-emptively striking with a new battery. And, note to self, New England Industrial Strength ice scraper
Like all, I know not what the future holds, but I'm reading some very slight shifts in the prevailing winds which hopefully will be propelling this sloop towards a very distant, brighter horizon. But I fear continued rough sailing ahead, for a period longer than I would have ever imagined. Or desired. I can only hope that a fog lifts as expediently as possible allowing for much clearer and rational vision. Yet, even so, no smooth sailing ahead.
Wow, I'm not a sailor! Where did that metaphorical paragraph come from???
Until brighter skies are warming all that I am, I shall continue to attempt to navigate these shark infested waters, somewhat alone... Ok, my soul has been possessed by a somewhat depressed Jimmy Buffett spirit...! :confuse:
And, I know I am not the only lonely soul out here in the ethernet with life issues with which to deal. I hope that those that have shared theirs in the past are indeed at, or much closer to, that brighter horizon that I hope to be sailing oh so slowly towards.
Still fancying himself a frustrated writer,
Laurasdada
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
But even if there is a realistic perspective that global warming is due to other causes, or that global warming won't happen anyway... or, if nature has another counter measure that is happening concurrently, such as sunspot activity, it is never a constructive argument or perspective to try to support man-made contamination. Plastics, pesticides, radiation, pharmaceuticals, petrochemical, and many air, ground, water and food contaminents such as mercury, arsenic, selenium, and thousands of poisonous compounds are never a good thing, especially when there are alternatives.
Regardless of anyone's position on GW, it is best to be good custodians of this planet. And that same approach applies to those that follow the Bible, and/or for those that simply love nature.
TM
I guess you have a good idea what the weather is going to be like, thanks to the very informative posts we have been treated to today, and it also seems as though the financial world is basicly strengthening---another good omem----I`m sure we would all get out the boat and row if it would help you---so just keep on a positive course Tony
Glad you're still kicking.
Sounds like you had better get out the Zaino!
BTW... the fog always lifts, dissipates, or retreats... eventually.
TM
It is SO great to hear from you. Keep the faith and it will get better for you.
I hope the Red Sox and Patriots bring you some joy the next several weeks or months. The Pats will put it all together very shortly with Brady and Belichic. I have a good feeling about the Red Sox.
Please keep in touch.
I will respond on this either tonight or tomorrow. I have to get ready for tennis.
How true...
Global Warming/enviornment:
I think we borrow the environment from our kids and it is/should be our duty/moral/ethics to return it to them in same condition, but past decade with strategic bankruptcies, hiding behind I-had-no-choice, and media’s yellow journalism have shown that humans are please-me-now race and the environment can go to hell.
I believe the only way to reduce global warming is to decrease end-to-end (from production to disposal of used energy source) consumption and not try to compensate increased energy usage by alternative “natural energy” aka solar, wind, hydrogen fuel, etc. Our needs will just expand/increase with available energy sources.
I hope the alternative energy does not have any unforeseen consequences
Ethenol = corn = food shortages/disapperance of forest
Hydrogen = water shortage (?)
In the end Nature has a way of showing humans that it (Nature) is bigger than us (human) and do not play/mess with it(nature)...
Oh well could not stop myself...
Regards,
Sanjay
IMO, the only real helpful features for parking are the sensors in the bumpers, particularly the rear ones, and a back-up camera can be helpful. As far as iDrive goes, I've had no major problems with it, but some parts of the GUI are illogical. Spock would have rejected the feature.
I recall that my grandmother, may she rest in peace, had "curb feelers" on her old Ford Falcon. Maybe they are the best parking assistants of all.
TM