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http://www.berkeleyearth.org/study.php
http://muller.lbl.gov/
Coming from Berkeley would make it suspect in my book. I don't trust anyone North of the Orange County border to be honest. :shades:
I would like to see the results of the last 10 years a little bit clearer. I contend if CO2 is the cause we have generated progressively more over the last 100 years. If it is a major factor there should be no downturn in the temperature. I know we are well below normal the last two summers.
And you can see how someone sitting in the earliest snowfall since the Civil war would be skeptical of a warming trend.
I have not read Freakonomics yet. Never available at the library. I think they realized they were shy in the first book on GW and went to IV to get some additional insight.
Brings back memories...
"The Berkeley group’s research even confirms the infamous “hockey stick” graph— showing a sharp recent temperature rise—that Muller once snarkily called “the poster child of the global warming community.” Muller’s new graph isn’t just similar, it’s identical." (calacademy.org)
The real proof in the pudding will be whether the Koch foundation pulls its funding. Right now they are the single biggest contributor with that 25%. If they leave, then we'll know AGW is real.
Muller was a big nuke proponent btw; not sure if that's changed since the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdownd. (WSJ op ed)
I believe Barrack Obama and Al Gore also won a Nobel Prize. Too bad it has become so political of late.
At any rate this was a preliminary report and the research is far from complete with this project. They also must be terrific speed readers because the report said they had studied, in detail some 1,600,000,000 records. Yes, 1 billion 600 million. Hmmm...
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And nah, they took random samples of the data. That's how they concluded that both the bad weather stations and the good weather stations came up with the the same results.
It's like me and my gas records. I've probably had a bunch of incorrect readings over the last 12 years, and the pumps were all different. And yet you could pull out a few dozen out at random and come up with the same lifetime mpg as the whole mash of them show.
This work was supported in part by the Director, Office of Science, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 ($188,587)
Here is Koch's take on the study:
http://www.charleskochfoundationfacts.org/2011/10/foundation-statement-on-berkel- ey-earth-surface-temperature-project/
How can you tell a legitimate scientist from a paid mouthpiece? We would like to think all our Congressmen and President was honest. The almighty dollar corrupts any and all.
I will say this group seems to be taking an honest approach. Here is their statement. Not the refined statement by the government controlled media sources:
Is it time now to end global warming skepticism?
Our study addressed only one area of the concerns: was the temperature rise on land improperly affected by the four key biases (station quality, homogenization, urban heat island, and station selection)? The answer turned out to be no – but they were questions worthy of investigation. Berkeley Earth has not addressed issues of the tree ring and proxy data, climate model accuracy, or human attribution.
As far as being identical to the hockey stick, you should compare the two instead of reading the MSM accounts. I don't see it that way. Notice the errant black line of deception?
Hockey Stick:
The hockey stick comparison, iirc, was for the land surface numbers of BEST vs the hockey stick graph. Muller's group is apparently going to tackle ocean temps next.
I don't understand what you are trying to indicate with the graph and the black line comment. But going back 1,000 years, the temps sure look to be warming no matter which line you pick.
I read the Koch Foundation statement earlier. It's notable for what it doesn't say (they could have simply put a face palm image up instead, lol).
It's fun watching the attacks, including saying that Prof. Curry doesn't agree with Muller at all. But if you read Curry's latest (and not the deniers or the MSN), she's pretty much okay with all that's come out of BEST to date. (judithcurry.com)
PS
the lone black line at the end of the hockey stick. Obviously added for shock value. I want to see the chart for the last 10 years. If it is cooling the whole theory of CO2 being the culprit becomes suspect.
I think the deniers have figured that they've lost that battle so they are personalizing the argument by attacking anyone ("the cult" - sheesh, give us a break) who suggests that dumping CO2 into the air may not be such a good idea.
The data will speak for itself, and the Koch Brothers will insure that the data is reliable.
Whether it's going to continue to warm, or whether it's anthropogenic or a sun cycle or ocean oscillation, they're all valid questions to research and spend tax dollars learning about. Attacking the data and interpretations of the results is appropriate but all the bombast directed at individuals is just a smoke screen. I mean, really, Carl Sagan was one of the biggest skeptics around in his day and contributed a lot of good science.
The deniers for the most part do not believe man is the major contributor to climate change in either direction. There are 31,000+ scientists that do not agree with the so called AGW consensus. I think the Muller study shows just what the media does with a little bit of data.
IF man's increased output of CO2 is the major cause of GW, we would not be in a cooling trend the last 10 years. And the latest I have read is increased coal usage could be contributing to the cooling.
As far as Carl Sagan goes, we would have not advanced as far as we have with men exploring space if he was in charge of the space program. I don't consider misleading children as advancing good science.
And Al Gore does in fact head up a Cult of liars set on pushing an agenda that is counterproductive to the advancement of man.
We now have right at 7 billion people sharing this planet. I see two choices. Kill off about half of them or bring them up to a decent standard of living. Hopefully by teaching them to be self sustaining. That will generate a lot more GHG. So we better learn to live with whatever it causes.
It has become a political football. And further proof is the two Green companies that have failed today. Taking with them MILLIONS of our tax dollars. Buying the science that politicians want is the name of the game.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-31727_162-20127308-10391695/another-solyndra-electri- c-car-battery-maker-facing-financial-hardship/?tag=nl.e875
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/beacon-power-backed-by-u-s-loan-guar- antees-files-bankruptcy.html
Solyndra $535 million gone, 1100 jobs for less than a year. That is about half a million a job. I don't think you are seeing the Green agenda for what it really is. We went through it in the late 1970s with wind and ethanol. The GOP and Bush did not learn and allowed it to be pushed again as subsidies for the farmers both corn and wind. It is never ending. Unless it is self sustaining it will only be a drag on our economy. We do have satellite technology from our past rocket failures. This is at least the 2nd time we have wasted billions with little or nothing to show for for green dream. The only green that is sustainable is making greenbacks. And that is not going to happen by padding the pockets of big contributors.
It really makes little difference who gets to put their name on the patent. It is the company that builds and sells the widget that gets rich. If we are not going to get our hands dirty mining the resources and building the solar panels and wind generators we are going to be left behind in our sterile environment.
Look at Mexico; higher wages and benefits there have resulted in reports of some companies moving production to the US since the savings are so good anymore (GM and the Silverado crew cab for example). I don't see our standard of living going down.
btw, Freakonomics says it pays to be optimistic.
I know that China and Mexico are coming up. Probably India as well. The reason GM can bring back production here is the realistic UAW contracts that now pay around $15 an hour for line work vs $30 per hour.
Only a wealthy country can afford demonstrations, environmental regs, and a social safety net.
I've always lived on the margins myself because I don't like working that hard. You don't own stuff, it owns you. I'd do just fine in Mexico.
A European program to charge airlines for their greenhouse-gas emissions could raise round-trip ticket prices from the United States by more than $30 starting next year. Environmental groups and some travelers praise the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme as a way to curb climate change. The goal is to spur airlines and manufacturers to build more efficient planes like Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.
"Hopefully, this will help them do that a lot faster," says Thomas Buchen, 65, who has flown 4 million miles by traveling as far as Dubai from his home in Williamsburg, Va., to build golf courses. "We're trying to be as environmentally friendly as we can."
LOL! If the 4 million miles isn't enough, he converts land into energy intensive (watering and maintenance) places where the wealthy - with large carbon footprints - can travel to.
http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011-10-31/Greenhouse-gas-tax-could-inf- late-airfares/51018748/1
What isn't science, when it fails to recognize that it has to be cold for some amount of time beforehand for snow to stick, and this snow stuck to the tune of 2+feet? My memory has not failed me, and I certainly don't see any warming in the 51 years I've been on the Earth.
Where is the sea-level rise? The maps of the coastline, and the beaches themselves are almost in the same exact spot as when I visited them 45 years ago. The inn I go to in Cape May NJ is right across the street from the ocean where people over 100 years ago went stayed to go to the beach.
Science isn't about people looking to make a name or fortune for themselves either, by liberating their desire for the Defining Moments of Mankind, to happen during their lifespan.
Some of that is attributed to warming and some to land subsidence.
How inconvenient for climatologists that their hockey-stick is broken in the last decade.
I see the article did still use that less-referred to term of "global warming" though. Maybe climatologists came to their senses to stop trying to sell "warming" to people who were getting snowed on anytime during 6 months of the year!
GW and the Doomsday of the Mayan Calendar are probably running neck-and-neck on the list of concerns of most people.
Insignificant, unsubstantiated theories that I have seen throughout History, that are shown to be false or overblown.
Auto exhaust, factory emissions, etc. are insignificant compared to the forces of Nature. The energy striking the Earth from the Sun ALONE, is several orders of magnitude greater than any energy/pollution effects Mankind could create. The Wind, Tides, tectonic plate movements, and geothermal energy of Nature also dwarfs man's effects.
Mankind's auto emissions have about as much effect as having all the vehicles on Earth, face 180-degrees opposite the rotation of the Earth, and running them all, to try and stop the Earth from rotating in its current direction.
But is it? Not according to Prof Judith Curry, a member of Prof Muller’s team, who claims the same findings have shown that global warming has stopped – plunging the rest of us into a quandary of what and who to believe
When Prof Curry heard that Prof Muller was saying that the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) findings would put an end to climate change scepticism for good she was horrified. “This isn’t the end of scepticism,” she exclaimed.
“To say that is the biggest mistake he has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, ‘Oh my God.’”
Prof Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and Prof Curry, who chairs the Department Of Earth And Atmospheric Sciences at America’s Georgia Institute of Technology, were part of the BEST project that carried out analysis of more than 1.6 billion temperature recordings collected from more than 39,000 weather stations around the world.
Prof Muller appeared on Radio 4’s Today Programme last Friday where he described how BEST’s findings showed that since the Fifties global temperatures had risen by about 1 degree Celsius, a figure which is in line with estimates from Nasa and the Met Office.
When asked whether the rate had stopped over the last 10 years he said they had not. “We see no evidence of it having slowed down,” he replied and a graph issued by the BEST project suggests a continuing and steep increase.
But this last point is one which Prof Curry has furiously rebuttted. In a serious clash of scientific experts Prof Curry has accused Prof Muller of trying to “hide the decline in rates of global warming”.
She says that BEST’s research actually shows that there has been no increase in world temperatures for 13 years.
She has called Prof Muller’s comments “a huge mistake” and has said that she now plans to discuss her future on the project with him. “There is no scientific basis for saying that global warming hasn’t stopped,” she says.
“To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.” New research also seems to back up Prof Curry rather than Prof Muller.
http://www.express.co.uk/features/view/280948/Is-global-warming-over-
So who bought off Muller, is the question? Who can you believe? Why don't we ever get honest reporting from US sources?
Discussion with Rich Muller" by Judith Curry
"I had a 90 minute meeting with Richard Muller this evening.
I have to say that there isn’t much that we disagree on."
judithcurry.com
(my bolding. :shades: This blog post followed the WSJ article and Curry's interview).
So all in all, I am ok with what is going on in the BEST project. The PR situation is still a problem, but the media aren’t helping here. In any event alot of people are now looking at the data. The BEST team is taking seriously the more serious critiques and are sorting through them. Progress is being made!
The Media LIED to push their AGW agenda.
The issues regarding climate change have not been sufficiently scrutinized. Errors, misstatements, partial statements, evasions, and lack of cooperation and candor, even ad hominem attacks are used by the proponents of global warming instead. Senators Rockefeller (D-VA) and Snowe (R-ME) called for the suppression of skeptics. Others suggest that Nuremberg Trials be held for them. Science is not conducted that way.
This international global warming lobby is large, organized, heavily funded, and mean. Whatever their the agenda may be, it is not science. Their actions are reminiscent of earlier arrogant powers imprisoning and suppressing Galileo or Giordano Bruno's burning at the stake for the heresy of suggesting that the Earth was not the center of the Universe.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a UN organization formed within the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). This should sound alarms for those familiar with the politics of some of the power brokers within the UN itself. Many are decidedly anti-capitalist and anti-American. For example, consider the statement of Maurice Strong made at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro: "Isn't the ONLY hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?"
http://www.grassrootinstitute.org/system/old/GrassrootPerspective/HockeyStickSca- ndal.shtml
The above statements make the IPCC and the UN the Enemy of the United States of America.
And is your link from Curry or a commentator on the site?
PS
It is a link directly from Curry.com
http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/31/best-and-the-implications-for-peer-review/
Something tells me they aren't going to find a smoking hockey stick there either. In spite of all the media rumblings, the land data appears to have held up well.
Canada, the country furthest from meeting its commitment to cut carbon emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, may save as much as $6.7 billion by exiting the global climate change agreement and not paying for offset credits.
The country’s greenhouse-gas emissions are almost a third higher than 1990 levels, and it has a 6 percent CO2 reduction target for the end of 2012. If it couldn’t meet its goal, Canada would have to buy carbon credits, under the rules of the legally binding treaty.
Canada, which has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves, would be the first of 191 signatories to the Kyoto Protocol to annul its emission-reduction obligations. While Environment Minister Peter Kent declined to confirm Nov. 28 that Canada is preparing to pull out of Kyoto, which may ease the burden for oil-sands producers and coal-burning utilities, he said the government wouldn’t make further commitments to it.
“Canada is the only country in the world saying it won’t honor Kyoto,” said Keith Stewart, an energy and climate policy analyst for Greenpeace in Toronto. Under a previous Liberal government, Canada was one of the first countries to sign Kyoto in 1998. The current Conservative government made a non-binding commitment at 2009 United Nations talks in Copenhagen to reduce emissions by 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels, in line with a pledge by the U.S., its biggest trading partner.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/canada-may-escape-6-7-billion-bill-by-e- xiting-kyoto-protocol.html
As Ann Barnhardt so eloquently stated (google her videos on YT; they are well worth it) in her news flash to Senator Lindsay Graham (or maybe it was Willard "Mitt" Romney; I can't remember)...
paraphrasing: "...just in case you haven't heard, there's a 9 quadrillion fusion ball out there called the Sun which influences the weather infinitely more than anything man made could..."
BRAVO CANADA!!! Now will any other nation with CAJONES follow their lead on this fraud???
Has anybody bothered to mention to these idiot-crats that carbon dioxide is the plant species oxygen?? Anybody bothered to send them the videos of the milkweed plant that was fed excess amounts of CARBON DIOXIDE side by side with one grown with normal amounts?? The excess carbon fed plant (remember this is a "pollutant" to these pinheads) grew about 35% larger. Hence if there's "too much" carbon dioxide produced, guess what?? The plants and grasses will utilize it?!?
This "Climate Change" fraud, along with Agenda 21 (Google it also for a little leisure reading but have a barf bucket handy) is an elitist attack on humanity plain and simple.
This brings into question how any of the current climate modeling techniques actually work. It is certainly a slap in the face to all the experts who are using climate modeling to assure us that the world will end if we don't give Al Gore and developing nations billions of dollars to staunch the flow of green house gasses.
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I did mention that burning wood at $350 per cord is about 1/3rd the cost of Propane. I just hauled two PU loads of nice Eucalyptus for next year. Needs to dry out and be split.
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Gingrich Kills Chapter on Climate Change in Upcoming Book (National Journal)
In weather news, Mild weather redefines winter landscape (Washington Post)
PS
It is caused by you wanting a polluting iPad.
The mostly warm weather sure is saving on the heating bills around here though and I bet the cities and counties are liking not blowing their budget on plowing. The guys who get through the winter plowing driveways and parking lots must be having trouble making truck payments.
Still early though; the weather service over in Marquette has downgraded the blizzard warning to a winter storm warning, but we could still get a nice dump tomorrow.
One person's blessing is another person's misery. For every action there is a reaction. I have slowed my flow of propane by burning more wood. I did buy some to get real dry wood. BTU wise wood is much cheaper. Now it has warmed up and mid 70s are forecast into the distant future. What is really strange is the over night temps. This time of year we get a lot of 30s over night when it is clear. The last week it has not dropped below 50 at our place. We feel like we are in the sub tropics.
Another unforeseen reaction just came out today concerning recycled paper towels.
AP) MONTREAL - Here's something to keep in mind the next time you reach for a paper towel in a public washroom.
A study by Laval University in Quebec City finds bacteria thrives on the paper products, even unused towels.
And, it says some of those germs could be transferred to you after you've washed your hands.
The study looked at six brands of paper towels, all sold in Canada. It found all six brands had germs, with recycled towels being the most heavily contaminated.
(I'm reading Moyashimon at the moment so you struck a nerve.
A Russian tanker carrying desperately-needed fuel supplies for the far northern Alaskan city of Nome keeps getting stuck in thick ice flows as it crosses the frigid Bering Sea in the dead of winter.
Fortunately, the 370-foot tanker Renda is escorted by a specially-designed Coast Guard ice breaker, the USCGC Healy, whose extra-thick hull is capable of crashing through ice several feet thick.
But that means going is slow. The two ships are covering just five to six nautical miles a day, even though they still have more 300 miles of sea ice to burst through before they can reach Nome.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083542/Tanker-carrying-supplies-strande- d-Alaskan-village-gets-stuck-ice-flows-crosses-frigid-Bering-Sea.html?ito=feeds-- newsxml
Still can't believe the idiots waited so long to try to get the first barge in - Nome ordered the fuel last May.
Best GW headline in a while:
Is Global Warming A Bipolar Disorder? (Forbes)
I'm jonesing for some real weather - the ~5 inch dump the other day didn't cut it. Went for a snowshoe ranger tromp a while back and everyone walked in their sneakers.
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- Dozens of National Guard troops have arrived to help an Alaska fishing town dig out from massive snows that have collapsed roofs, trapped some people in homes, and triggered avalanches.
Cordova is used to snow, but not like this season's blanketing.
The Guard reported more than 18 feet of snow has fallen in the past weeks, although the National Weather Service did not immediately have a measurement.
"There's nowhere to go with the snow because it's piled up so high," said Wendy Rainney, who owns the Orca Adventure Lodge.
37 years in Alaska and I never got to Cordova. I have friends that have a fishing permit for there. They invited me and I never made it.
My son's job shut down because -15 degree weather in Wasilla. Kind of early for that kind of cold. I am sure most of AK would go for a little of the warming trend.
Alaska is getting all the fun weather this year. Valdez has around 6' on the ground, 18' has fallen. I don't think we've gotten 18 inches.
It's not too late to get there, but you may want to wait until it's salmon berry picking time. Assuming extreme summer weather doesn't hammer them.