But in any case, I am holding the great majority of my AAPL shares for the long haul. I was just thinking that if it were to sddenly jump back toward the highs of the other day ($423), I would sell he 90 shares I purchased yesterday with the hope that there will be a dip and I can then buy even more than 90 shares.
Charlie...
What you described in your post is somewhat like gambling... as Len said. It differs from the systematic strategy such as I described in detail in my post. The reason for this is that instead of operating under the premise of real-life share price activity, you are operating under the premise of "HOPE". There is no assurance that what you "HOPE" will happen in the stock market will ACTUALLY happen.
Specifically, selling with the HOPE that the stock's next move will be a dip is a riskier investment perspective. The risk isn't that you will lose a lot of money, but rather that you will forfeit the true potential for gains and reduce your net gains. What if the share price goes higher?... which is the desired outcome most of the time, and especially likely with a stock like AAPL.
It makes more sense to buy when you KNOW the price has dipped... that is a sure thing. It builds a low overall average cost per share.
That said, I absolutely think it makes sense at times to sell out when it is obvious that the overall market is in, or about to be in, a major decline mode. There is no reason to blindly let your investments bleed when it can be avoided!! But, that shouldn't be the centerpiece of your strategy. The focus should be to accumulate shares at dips and to exercise manipulative measures to lower the cost per share average, such as the process I described in detail in my former post. If you believe the stock is heading higher, then the process I described enhances the net gain.
If you are going to exercise any day trading procedures, I will give you a couple of little tips here. If your eTrade account allows you to use the "house's" money, then you can consider taking advantage of increased buying power. For example, Scottrade allows me to use millions of dollars that aren't mine. The fee is negligable. I cannot keep those funds in the portfolio after the sesson has closed, but I can use them during the session. At the end of the session, my positions must be only my own money. Only once have I used all of the money available, and it was to get myself out of a stupid situation I put myself in, and to reduce the damage I caused myself. However, I have more often used SOME of it to enhance gains on occassion by reducing my average cost per share, which is my favorite strategy.
If, for example, AAPL is going up $5 during a day, and I own my typical 500 shares, I would make $2500 on AAPL that session. However, if I temporarily hold 2000 shares during an upward movement during the day, I would make $10,000, and then I would sell back the extra 1500 shares. If the stock goes down, however, and ends the session down, I would incur a larger loss. The best time to exercise this procedure is after the market and the stock has already taken a big hit, and is obviously enjoying an upward momentum during the session. With good charts and good real-time data feedback, it is fairly obvious to spot this as it is happening, and it is easy to simply hit the buy button, and then as the chart shows the stock has reached a plateau, it is easy to hit the sell button. The entire gain is now yours.
To more fully understand the nature of intra-day price swings, it is important to have multiple charts from various stocks displayed at the same time. Many stocks swing in correllation with one another throughout the day, even though their fundamentals have nothing to do with one another. This is because that even though the individual stocks move on their own, there is a HUGE tendency for the market to move as a whole, and by watching the entire market, it is possible to spot an upward momentum that will lift nearly all stocks, including APPL, for a short period of time... perhaps for as little as 15 seconds to as much as several minutes. If the stocks are not moving together, you have to be even more careful.
Another time to be careful is during the market's open, as it is often deceiving in the early minutes of trading as the market seems to find its direction, which sometimes completely turns around. The most dramatic time is during the last hour, and especially the last 30 minutes. The positions you close with will affect the next day's opening. Very often the gains and losses are a result of the difference between the prior day's close and the next day's open... with the rest of the day meaningless ups and downs. Sometimes, however, the market will take a real-time knee-jerk reaction to a news announcement, and go crazy. So it is important to know where you want to be at the end of a session, and where you want to be at the opening of the next session.
The more you pay attention, the more you will learn. It can be fun, but soooooo demanding of your time and attention. As you said, you watch AAPL like a hawk. Well, soon you might see what an eagle eye is REALLY all about.
HONG KONG (AP) — Apple Inc. opened its long-awaited first store in Hong Kong on Saturday, with thousands of fans of the computer and gadget maker pouring in on the first day.
Some Apple enthusiasts had camped out for nearly two days to secure a place at the head of the line and be among the first to walk through the doors of the new store, where they were greeted with high fives and chants of "Apple, Apple!" by the 300 newly hired staff.
The store is located on two floors linked by a glass spiral staircase in Hong Kong's upscale International Financial Center Mall, in the city's central business district.
The Cupertino, California-based company's products are wildly popular in mainland China. The Hong Kong store follows the opening of a third Shanghai store on Friday as the company boosts its presence in a key market. It also has two stores in Beijing.
I always appreciate your advice, although sometimes I don`t agree I still appreciate it..
We can always get stuck in a stock after it has reached it`s potential ----and not realized it.......As I have mentioned in the past, I think Apple is a quarter to quarter type thing......We have a month before the earnings are posted......and this time there probably are estimations that could be more robust than the company reports, but the majority that under estimate.....Whatever happens I`m sure everyone is going to be quick on the trigger...
The nice thing about this individual stock is it`s momentum , and the belief in in their products.....It makes it possible to hold on..but there is a time coming that something will go wrong
I remember back in the seventies or late sixties IBM was the darling, and I tell you when it flattened out and started to decline, it would take the patience of `Jobe` to have waited it out......I mean who has twenty years or so??
I always appreciate your advice, although sometimes I don`t agree I still appreciate it..
Thanks! I always appreciate your posts, and you have been encouraging and helpful to me on numerous occassions... and in addition to that, you always bring a sense of compassion and wisdom to this forum. You were obviously raised "right" and you have a good head on your shoulders and a big heart to go along with it. No doubt about it.
I remember back in the seventies or late sixties IBM was the darling, and I tell you when it flattened out and started to decline, it would take the patience of `Jobe` to have waited it out......I mean who has twenty years or so??
Here's something right now that has been testing our patience... our economy! It's been a few years since the USA financial meltdown, and now years later we just experienced the worst single week in the market since '08. Unemployment is still in crisis mode, housing is still in crisis mode, and the deficit is still in crisis mode.
Look at Japan... after a full decade, they haven't made much progress.
Europe is anyone's guess.
It does make me wonder just how long our economy will limp along. Certainly until the next presidential election, and if Obama is re-elected, we will suffer severely until at least 2016, and the damage could easily be sooooo terrible, that it could take MANY more years to heal, unless the damage is irreversible, as many experts have predicted if Obama is re-elected.
Even if Obama is not re-elected, a Republican president is over 15 months away, and Obama can cause a LOT more damage in that time. And it will take time for a new Republican admistration to get things on the right track, as you can bet the farm that the Democrats will do everything possible to thwart the efforts of a Republican president.
With regards to AAPL, I still think that it is possible for the share price to double within a few years. Even a 50% return is a great opportunity, especially in times like these.
But caution is ALWAYS necessary with this new stock market. I have said repeatedly that the market has changed and so have the rules.
You put alot of thought into your posts----no matter what---Thanks
Don`t ever under estimate the power of the press.....As they have been harping --negatively-- for quite some time, the reports seem to come true, although things aren`t as bad as they seem......If the media changes course, and decides `good` news sells, then things can change quickly
Maybe a couple of years or so ago, I believe we both were disappointed that Obama didn`t concentrate on the economy before he got so involved with the healthcare......It`s come home to `rooste`
I haven`t really harped on it, but I think Ben B has way overdone the low to non existent interest rate....I think it was a good move in the beginning, and then it should have been moderated.....Everyone in the country that has set aside some funds for later security has been denied ......Just using the two of us as an example, when we make an investment that turns out to be a trade due to market volatility, shouldn`t we derive something as our money is being used ( the float) while we wait for another potential chance to invest it?? I think alot of this volatility is because no one is getting any return while they ponder what to do..
Ben B is supposed to be independent , but lately I have read that he is trying to facilitate the Democratic party`s agenda......It makes sense to me, that if that is the case, then he is just one more cog in the Obama administration.....As I use to be a supporter of the Obama administration, I feel let down, consequently I am not a supporter anymore.....but I don` think the man is totally at fault, just his team.....In other words, I don`t think `malice` twords him as an individual, just what he and his team has done, which is not what I wish they had been able to do..
Now we get to the next part---Who do the Republicans have for a candidate?? So far I am not encouraged....:) Tony ps As our company uses quite alot of borrowed funds, it is very obvious how the low interest rate come right to the bottom line....We still charge what the market will bear, and that also comes right to the bottom line, but I can say this is way overdone, as it just isn`t right....We --in the past have done just fine with way higher interest rates...Just think Volker
No, I thought about it but didn't take the plunge. I have bought and sold that stock a couple of times in the past when I thought it could just not go any lower. I was wrong. I am afraid that if I bought I would jinx you !
I agree with you about Uncle Ben. I personally like him, and credit him with keeping us from going down the drain, yet he now is tinkering where he should not, and I also agree he is politically manipulated by Obama, and that behavior is not independent as it should be. Obama should not be using the Fed like that.
To answer your question, who the Republicans have? We have Herman Cain!!!... and the 9-9-9 plan! Yeah baby, 9-9-9.
Lastly, I don't want you or anyone here to think I am a doom and gloom believer, as I am not. I do, however, recognize that the media and general focus is quite negative, and much of that is due to the upcoming presidential election... so better get used to it. The problem is that it is self-fulfilling to an extent, and therefore it feeds upon itself and gets worse and worse, and in addition there are, in fact, legitimate serious issues here and abroad. So, we see this overload of too many problems going on all at once, and it is overwhelming and bound to have a negative reaction.
All that said, I still expect the market to be higher, as I have posted for a number of months.
No, I thought about it but didn't take the plunge. I have bought and sold that stock a couple of times in the past when I thought it could just not go any lower. I was wrong. I am afraid that if I bought I would jinx you !
LOL... I sure don't want to be jinxed, thanks. Well, you are smart to avoid it perhaps... Sprint is clearly a risky stock, but it got sooooo low, that I could not resist it.
Why should we believe a new republican regime would get things on the right track? Just curious ...
Well... there is no guarantee, of course... and I would expect some issues that often go hand-in-hand with Republican administrations. But this seems different to me this time.
The Obama agenda is going the wrong direction, and the Republicans would reverse that, and that in and of itself would be good for the economy. Confidence in Obama has eroded, and uncertainty is too high. Having a republican in the White House would fix that immediately, without even doing a single thing!
For starters, the Obamacare nightmare will come to an end as soon as there is a Republican elected. EVERY Republican candidate has promised over and over again to repeal Obamacare. This will start things off on the right track.
Most of the Republicans have promised sweeping tax reform, and I actually think it will happen this time. I totally believe that if a Republican is elected president, we will see tax cuts and possibly a simpler tax code. I think we will see immigration issues dealt with, and efforts to cut the growing size of our government.
ALL these things (and more) will start to get our country on the right track.
At this point, I am a supporter of Herman Cain. He is the guy to beat Obama. He has the better vision for America, and the racial field becomes level ground. Unlike Obama, he understands business, first hand. He can win.
I don`t think you are a pessimist...Just a realist...The market is not what I think is a healthy market.......I just think it is the way it is because of the news media, to a large extent....
I`l mention that I am concerned if this keeps up too much longer, we can easily wake up one Monday morning, and the market just gaps down a thousand , and does so the next morning, carrying Apple down a hundred, and then more the next day......There was a good book written a long time ago, called `Ragtime`, maybe written by `Daktrow (sp).......It just said---short form--` One day the manufacturing plant was making pots and pans, and the next day the orders just stopped cold`....That was the beginning of the great depression....Tony
I`l mention that I am concerned if this keeps up too much longer, we can easily wake up one Monday morning, and the market just gaps down a thousand , and does so the next morning, carrying Apple down a hundred, and then more the next day
I agree with that possibility.
If it happens I will buy more AAPL shares. But, I might be out BEFORE that would happen. There are often signs, but you are definitely right... we could all be blindsided! That's why I don't own a ton of them now. I am currently holding 750 shares of AAPL, and I typically own 500. That number varies because I am sooooo focused on ringing the register now and then, and reducing my average base cost, so when the stock declines, I buy more, and then sell the same number of shares when/if it regains to the new lowered base. It also reduces my exposure to risk.
What you described in your post is somewhat like gambling... as Len said. It differs from the systematic strategy such as I described in detail in my post.
Of course it's gambling. I have played my share of poker in my day and I know what gambling is all about.
There is no assurance that what you "HOPE" will happen in the stock market will ACTUALLY happen.
You are absolutely correct. My thinking here is that I am only talking about 90 shares instead of 700 or more. And, if my scenario takes place where AAPL shoots up to $423 suddenly and I sell, but it keeps going higher, so be it. I may then decide to purchase some shares at a higher price, who knows.
I believe emotion plays a huge role in the market, so you are likely right that something seen as a positive change could have at least a short term positive impact. Whether or not it will be actual positive change is a different story, just not seeing much substance from the elephants yet, and it will only help Barry. Tax cuts are nice, but spending cuts need to come with, and I don't see anyone willing to confront the military-industrial complex or corporate welfare addicts.
If Cain could restore Godfather's to what it once was, I would give him support :shades: I am not sure how he is on social issues - we can't forget that controls so much of the vote.
A few posts back, Tony had posted a very legitimate concern that the market could suddenly tank, and as an example we could all wake up one Monday morning and suddenly be facing a massive selloff.
Scary thought.
Since you are the one investor here that did the very best job of reading the tea leaves in 2008, and you were able to avoid the bloodbath... that makes you responsible to warn all of us in advance if Tony's concern should become a reality.
For starters, the Obamacare nightmare will come to an end as soon as there is a Republican elected.
I think that one thing did more to stop expansion and hiring than anything else. Now Obama is using the waivers to coerce businesses into hiring. I think the list of companies getting waivers from Obamacare is over 1500. It is like an extortion racket.
I also like Cain. He has a good business mind and his tax reform plan may just work.
I noticed that Netflix was up in pre-market trading by several dollars per share from my cost per share. So... I sold my 1,000 shares this morning in the early minutes of pre-market and quickly pocketed $4,000.
Since then it has gone up even a couple dollars more (in pre-market, now as I post this), and I could have pocketed $6K. And for all I know, if I had waited longer I might have made $10K, $20K, or even more... or further down the road not made anything at all... but your post was so negative about Netflix that it concerned me enough to consider the $4K to be a very nice little gift.
Just thought you might like to know.
Edit: Gains have since doubled since I sold my shares! Seems Dreamworks Animation has signed a deal with Netflix! :surprise:
Since you are the one investor here that did the very best job of reading the tea leaves in 2008, and you were able to avoid the bloodbath... that makes you responsible to warn all of us in advance if Tony's concern should become a reality.
No pressure, of course.
No, I do NOT see a new meltdown of the likes we saw in 2008/2009. Not even close! Back then, we had a total collapse of some huge banking institutions here in the U.S. That is far from reality now. Plus, companies in general are doing very well now and they will continue to prosper. 6 months to a year from now, the Stock Market will be looking a lot stronger than it does now.
Other than legal battles with Samsung, I have not seen anything very negative on Apple this morning. What gives? I obviously made a mistake buying back on Friday. It is a much better buy this morning.
Trust me... you are going on an adventure with your eTrade account! You have barely begun today's session, and you already believe you have made a mistake. A lot can and will happen.
I don't know of any significant negative news specific to AAPL (just the ongoing legal stuff).
This morning, when Apple's share price went down, I bought thousands of shares, and then as it started back up, I sold them back, resulting in a much better overall average cost per share. So, now instead of suffering a loss, I am ahead $7,000 (at this moment). And, since I retained 1,000 shares, once the stock regains the rest of today's losses, I will gain $1000 for every dollar it regains.
If it goes back down, I will repeat the same procedure to lower my cost.
That's my strategy I've been using successfully... it works!
This morning, when Apple's share price went down, I bought thousands of shares, and then as it started back up, I sold them back, resulting in a much better overall average cost per share. So, now instead of suffering a loss, I am ahead $7,000 (at this moment). And, since I retained 1,000 shares, once the stock regains the rest of today's losses, I will gain $1000 for every dollar it regains.
Holy smoke! You are a trading machine. Can you explain how you can buy "thousands" of shares and not have a heart attack? I think you mentioned something about this feature on Scottrade a couple days ago, but I don't think it sank in.
In my case, I would be a happy camper right now if I waited buying the 90 shares until this morning when AAPL dropped to the low $390's.
Holy smoke! You are a trading machine. Can you explain how you can buy "thousands" of shares and not have a heart attack? I think you mentioned something about this feature on Scottrade a couple days ago, but I don't think it sank in.
In my case, I would be a happy camper right now if I waited buying the 90 shares until this morning when AAPL dropped to the low $390's.
With a stock like AAPL, I don't have a heart attack because I already have confidence in the stock. What's the worst that could happen? That I own more of it than I intended, or that I sell off some of the excess? Everything is restored and improved once the share price goes back up because I have significantly lowered my share cost.
You can do the exact same thing, but on a smaller scale, as I understand your eTrade account is not your primary account. I have the sense that your eTrade account is somewhat of a recreational account.
What is your cost of the 90 shares you bought on Friday?
Can you buy another 90 shares if the share price takes a hit?
For now, let's consider using 45 more shares. Consider that if the share price were to re-visit today's lows, you could then buy another 45 shares. That would reduce your cost to about $400/share. Once the stock returns to $400/share you should sell 45 shares. The result is that you would own the same number of shares you owned originally, but at a better price.
And, at $400/share you would be even instead of a loss of $405.00. Also, when the stock returns to $404.50/share (your original cost) you would be ahead $405.00, instead of breaking even.
EDIT: I should warn you of the downside risk here. If the stock continues to go even lower, then you would wait until you feel it has re-established the next "low", and then you can use the last 45 shares to re-average your cost again, and re-do the strategy again... or you can simply wait. The stock would obviously return to $400/share before it returns to $404.50.
Unless you think the stock will never regain its losses.
BTW, the "news" was that there was rumor of reduced iPad orders from Apple to its suppliers.
Lastly... you can do the strategy at any time the share price goes lower than your current cost. You do not have to wait until it reaches the low of the day.
Trust me. I totally understand your strategy. It's not rocket science. However, I am not sure I want to invest any more on AAPL right now. I am very confident that AAPL will eventually go to the moon and I will still be very happy.
I agree that AAPL shares are going to go much higher!!
The only reason I have taken the time to provide you all this info is that you posted that you made a mistake. So, as your friend, I was posting to you a way out. No, it's not rocket science, but it does require very fast hands-on diligent trading, and many folks would have a heart attack, as you yourself have said... casual investing like yours will not get the same gains.
If you don't actually think it was a mistake, then I don't want to waste time giving you information that you don't actually want or need. I am sure you will do fine in the long run. I was under the impression that your eTrade account was a seperate account for you to maximize your gains, not minimize them.
EDIT: Share price is getting attractive again at this moment.
EDIT 2: I am going to shift some of my AAPL shares to AMZN shares.
You have worked out an interesting formula for yourself, and it is working for you...Congratulations
For me , over the years, I just do not average down, as I make myself first admit I made a mistake buying when I did, then second , not to throw good money after bad.....I`m sitting right here with a stock that is now lower than where I purchased it.....For me the thought process is do I continue to hold it and to what price do I hold it too?? Very disciplined in my approach, and even when I have a great company like Apple, I will sell it and take a loss , no matter what...I hope Charlie also takes this to `heart` Tony
Throwing good money after bad is a terrible thing to do!... and I make every effort to never do that. As I have posted in the past, I have made some serious blunders and cut my losses and admitted my mistakes MANY times. It goes with the territory. Anyone who cannot admit a mistake and cut their loss should not be trading stocks, IMO.
That said, some stocks are not bad, IMO, and throwing more money into them is a good thing and not a bad thing. I believe AAPL is one of them. There is no one here on this forum that doesn't totally 100% believe that AAPL shares will go higher. So, putting more money into AAPL to decrease the cost average is a good idea from every perspective, IMO.
Buying AAPL shares on significant dips is also a good idea, IMO.
Please realize that I do not average down unless it is worth it. Many times patience is simply the best way to go. Also, there are times when its best to ring the register on a stock, take the gains, and call it quits.
EDIT: It looks like I did the right thing taking the $4,000 gain on Netflix in the pre-market session!! It is now trading at a loss.
The "slowdown" is what has been the primary concern today, but it is kind of silly because Apple always starts to wind down its orders when it is planning a replacement product. The iPad3 debut could have something to do with the slowdown of orders for iPad2. It depends upon the official realease date, which is not yet official.
And whether that's the reason of not, Apple has only touched the surface of its sales potential.
Quality competition isn't a bad thing, IMO. It further legitimizes the products and intensifies consumer interest.
That's why I also purchased 500 shares of AMZN at its low. Their new product could be a winner, and if not, it will stimulate iPad sales.
TM, your advice is always appreciated. It's just that I don't want to transfer any more money into the E-trade account right now. I'm not the high roller that you are on stock trading.
Do you think it might have been a good idea to have invested 50% - 75% of the etrade money?... so you would have been able to massage your investment a little more? Maybe on the next big gain, you should sell a portion and then you'd have some "working capital"
BTW, I am soooooo glad I applied my little strategy this morning. I am up an extra $10,000 on AAPL as a result. It makes up for some of my blunders.
First of all, my above post was typed on my "stupid" G1 cell phone. Therefore, it is full of typos. I can't wait for the iPhone5 at which point I will also have to change providers since T-Mobile does not carry the iPhone.
Do you think it might have been a good idea to have invested 50% - 75% of the etrade money?... so you would have been able to massage your investment a little more? Maybe on the next big gain, you should sell a portion and then you'd have some "working capital"
Loking back, it would have absolutely been the right thing to do. Instead, I dived right in so that "I would not miss the move to $425 from $405". What a dumbass I was, right? Oh well, live and learn. You're the man when it comes to short term trading.
You are absolutely right when you say we all expect Apple to go higher......I always keep in the back f my mind I can be wrong, therefore I just do as I have described......The bad thing about me is that I am not in a position to do as I have done in the good old years past......Nothing wrong with your strategy, and it is working for you, and I applaud your persistence ......I`m just an `old dog` who has been run over before, so I`m not going to repeat the performance
While I am at it, if the stock market were a more suitable place to invest, and I were investing in Appple, I would do as you say, and I would make my buys in four stages... fifty percent , first, twenty five percent and then two smaller percentages.....over a decent period of time......and when I sell I like to sell the huge majority right out the box, and of course at a nice gain Tony
Thanks for the info Gary. However, I do agree with TM here. It does not take much of a brain to realize that the slowdown was inevitable at this time. You don't see me going out to purchase the iPhone4 do you? Folks are now starting to wait for the new iPhone. That being said the iPhone4 was still selling at a rather robust rate, especially overseas.
I just came back from the one of the malls here in Des Moines. I visited the Apple Store there. I did not see a supply problem with iPad2 at this store. BTW, I was very impressed with how busy it was on a lazy Monday afternoon when kids are in school.
My post on Netflix was for the long-term. I think their business model can get hurt on both the data acquisition side thru studios raising their cost and the distribution side by the companies with the pipe, and they really are in competion as they are looking for PPV of course. Also streaming during high internet usage periods gets interrupted. We tried a movie on a Saturday evening once and gave up on it because it kept getting interrupted even with the wireless connection nearby. The DVD portion of the business is more costly to operate but it's also the cream of the business from a product standpoint. Also management has made terrible moves here with pricing and then scrambling to split the companies up literally with no thought process. Personally I think management ran the business on stock price rather than business sense. A smarter way to go would have been a 10-15% price increase rather than a 60% price increas. How can you think you can pull off a 60% PI in an economy like this?
Like I said, I was never a Netflix investor even when it was being hyped as the best thing since sliced bread.
Last Friday when I looked at the hammered share price and the behavior, I figured there was money on the table. I was thinking several days, but after reading your posts, I went for the quick kill in pre-market trading, and walked off with 4 big ones.
I'm certainly happy with that.
I'm more concerned with the overall direction of the market. I am not sure if it has strong legs yet. What's your thinking on that?
It looks like an upside to the market on early morning trading. What is confusing to me is Gold. It should be opposite the market. Yet it is up $61 this morning. GLD and SLV are both up in early trading. And AAPL is up $5 ahead of the bell. Have a fun day. I just hope Obama and Bernanke keep their mouths shut. Seems every time they open them, the market goes in the toilet.
As expected, the sales people at the Apple Store had no idea. I have a feeling the the iPad3 will not be launched until at least early 2012. The iPhone5 should be out in October.
Note that at the bottom of the article indicates that by splitting the company into streaming and DVD makes it more attractive for someone like Amazon to buy Netflix and the streaming business.
The DVD portion of the business is more costly to operate but it's also the cream of the business from a product standpoint.
I'll respectfully disagree. The DVD business is going the way of the video tape and brick and mortar rental outlets. The customer that consumes DVD rentals is going away and being replaced by tech savvy, time shifting consumers of entertainment. Netflix is already vying to produce its own content which will be available only via streaming and perhaps purchase on DVD or electronically.
I could see Netflix being gobbled up by an entertainment company (Comcast, Sony, Disney, et al) or Amazon buying one of the entertainment companies for their content.
Personally I think management ran the business on stock price rather than business sense.
Huh!!!???? You mean companies are supposed to be about more than today's stock price and earnings report?? Be gone you from this forum!! :P
From what I heard this morning Gary was correct yesterday when he pointed out the reason for the disappointing day with AAPL yesterday and again even today when compared to the rest of the market. The bears are trying to use supply problems and a slowdown of the iPad sales as the reason. This is BS in my opinion. This stock will reach at least $460 by the time of the next earnings report. There is nothing stopping AAPL from reaching astronomical levels over the next year or two. Actually, perhaps there is one thing that could stop it...another total meltdown and major world-wide recession/depression. That will NOT take place.
The word is out. It's been out for a while. A new and improved iPad3 will be out, probably by Spring 2012.
I don't think people mind getting an iPhone that's about to be replaced, when they need to set up cellular service. It's a logical choice, and it's not a big investment by any means.
The iPad isn't huge money, but it's certainly more costly than the iPhone, and with the knowledge that the new one is likely coming by Spring 2012, I know that I, for one, am holding off on buying one until the next one comes out. I think many folks are holding off as well. I want USB connectivity, which is likely, as well as the other improvements it will have.
Apple knows what it is doing... I think that's safe to say.
I'll respectfully disagree. The DVD business is going the way of the video tape and brick and mortar rental outlets.
Tell me it ain't so. I just paid $89 for a new DVD player. I do think DVDs will be around a long while. There are many places in the USA that cannot get enough bandwidth to make streaming Video reliable. It is more of a city thing where there is fiber to the curb. Believe it or not there are towns in America where you cannot get DSL. Still using dial up modems for Internet. I have a friend in Anadarko, OK that has tried to get DSL from the phone company for the last several years. She has no cable TV either.
Comments
But in any case, I am holding the great majority of my AAPL shares for the long haul. I was just thinking that if it were to sddenly jump back toward the highs of the other day ($423), I would sell he 90 shares I purchased yesterday with the hope that there will be a dip and I can then buy even more than 90 shares.
Charlie...
What you described in your post is somewhat like gambling... as Len said. It differs from the systematic strategy such as I described in detail in my post. The reason for this is that instead of operating under the premise of real-life share price activity, you are operating under the premise of "HOPE". There is no assurance that what you "HOPE" will happen in the stock market will ACTUALLY happen.
Specifically, selling with the HOPE that the stock's next move will be a dip is a riskier investment perspective. The risk isn't that you will lose a lot of money, but rather that you will forfeit the true potential for gains and reduce your net gains. What if the share price goes higher?... which is the desired outcome most of the time, and especially likely with a stock like AAPL.
It makes more sense to buy when you KNOW the price has dipped... that is a sure thing. It builds a low overall average cost per share.
That said, I absolutely think it makes sense at times to sell out when it is obvious that the overall market is in, or about to be in, a major decline mode. There is no reason to blindly let your investments bleed when it can be avoided!! But, that shouldn't be the centerpiece of your strategy. The focus should be to accumulate shares at dips and to exercise manipulative measures to lower the cost per share average, such as the process I described in detail in my former post. If you believe the stock is heading higher, then the process I described enhances the net gain.
If you are going to exercise any day trading procedures, I will give you a couple of little tips here. If your eTrade account allows you to use the "house's" money, then you can consider taking advantage of increased buying power. For example, Scottrade allows me to use millions of dollars that aren't mine. The fee is negligable. I cannot keep those funds in the portfolio after the sesson has closed, but I can use them during the session. At the end of the session, my positions must be only my own money. Only once have I used all of the money available, and it was to get myself out of a stupid situation I put myself in, and to reduce the damage I caused myself. However, I have more often used SOME of it to enhance gains on occassion by reducing my average cost per share, which is my favorite strategy.
If, for example, AAPL is going up $5 during a day, and I own my typical 500 shares, I would make $2500 on AAPL that session. However, if I temporarily hold 2000 shares during an upward movement during the day, I would make $10,000, and then I would sell back the extra 1500 shares. If the stock goes down, however, and ends the session down, I would incur a larger loss. The best time to exercise this procedure is after the market and the stock has already taken a big hit, and is obviously enjoying an upward momentum during the session. With good charts and good real-time data feedback, it is fairly obvious to spot this as it is happening, and it is easy to simply hit the buy button, and then as the chart shows the stock has reached a plateau, it is easy to hit the sell button. The entire gain is now yours.
To more fully understand the nature of intra-day price swings, it is important to have multiple charts from various stocks displayed at the same time. Many stocks swing in correllation with one another throughout the day, even though their fundamentals have nothing to do with one another. This is because that even though the individual stocks move on their own, there is a HUGE tendency for the market to move as a whole, and by watching the entire market, it is possible to spot an upward momentum that will lift nearly all stocks, including APPL, for a short period of time... perhaps for as little as 15 seconds to as much as several minutes. If the stocks are not moving together, you have to be even more careful.
Another time to be careful is during the market's open, as it is often deceiving in the early minutes of trading as the market seems to find its direction, which sometimes completely turns around. The most dramatic time is during the last hour, and especially the last 30 minutes. The positions you close with will affect the next day's opening. Very often the gains and losses are a result of the difference between the prior day's close and the next day's open... with the rest of the day meaningless ups and downs. Sometimes, however, the market will take a real-time knee-jerk reaction to a news announcement, and go crazy. So it is important to know where you want to be at the end of a session, and where you want to be at the opening of the next session.
The more you pay attention, the more you will learn. It can be fun, but soooooo demanding of your time and attention. As you said, you watch AAPL like a hawk. Well, soon you might see what an eagle eye is REALLY all about.
But above all... BE CAREFUL!!!
And, good luck.
Ask questions if you have them.
TM
HONG KONG (AP) — Apple Inc. opened its long-awaited first store in Hong Kong on Saturday, with thousands of fans of the computer and gadget maker pouring in on the first day.
Some Apple enthusiasts had camped out for nearly two days to secure a place at the head of the line and be among the first to walk through the doors of the new store, where they were greeted with high fives and chants of "Apple, Apple!" by the 300 newly hired staff.
The store is located on two floors linked by a glass spiral staircase in Hong Kong's upscale International Financial Center Mall, in the city's central business district.
The Cupertino, California-based company's products are wildly popular in mainland China. The Hong Kong store follows the opening of a third Shanghai store on Friday as the company boosts its presence in a key market. It also has two stores in Beijing.
http://news.yahoo.com/hong-kongs-1st-apple-store-mobbed-opening-day-025329484.ht- ml
We can always get stuck in a stock after it has reached it`s potential ----and not realized it.......As I have mentioned in the past, I think Apple is a quarter to quarter type thing......We have a month before the earnings are posted......and this time there probably are estimations that could be more robust than the company reports, but the majority that under estimate.....Whatever happens I`m sure everyone is going to be quick on the trigger...
The nice thing about this individual stock is it`s momentum , and the belief in in their products.....It makes it possible to hold on..but there is a time coming that something will go wrong
I remember back in the seventies or late sixties IBM was the darling, and I tell you when it flattened out and started to decline, it would take the patience of `Jobe` to have waited it out......I mean who has twenty years or so??
Tony
Thanks! I always appreciate your posts, and you have been encouraging and helpful to me on numerous occassions... and in addition to that, you always bring a sense of compassion and wisdom to this forum. You were obviously raised "right" and you have a good head on your shoulders and a big heart to go along with it. No doubt about it.
I remember back in the seventies or late sixties IBM was the darling, and I tell you when it flattened out and started to decline, it would take the patience of `Jobe` to have waited it out......I mean who has twenty years or so??
Here's something right now that has been testing our patience... our economy! It's been a few years since the USA financial meltdown, and now years later we just experienced the worst single week in the market since '08. Unemployment is still in crisis mode, housing is still in crisis mode, and the deficit is still in crisis mode.
Look at Japan... after a full decade, they haven't made much progress.
Europe is anyone's guess.
It does make me wonder just how long our economy will limp along. Certainly until the next presidential election, and if Obama is re-elected, we will suffer severely until at least 2016, and the damage could easily be sooooo terrible, that it could take MANY more years to heal, unless the damage is irreversible, as many experts have predicted if Obama is re-elected.
Even if Obama is not re-elected, a Republican president is over 15 months away, and Obama can cause a LOT more damage in that time. And it will take time for a new Republican admistration to get things on the right track, as you can bet the farm that the Democrats will do everything possible to thwart the efforts of a Republican president.
With regards to AAPL, I still think that it is possible for the share price to double within a few years. Even a 50% return is a great opportunity, especially in times like these.
But caution is ALWAYS necessary with this new stock market. I have said repeatedly that the market has changed and so have the rules.
TM
Don`t ever under estimate the power of the press.....As they have been harping --negatively-- for quite some time, the reports seem to come true, although things aren`t as bad as they seem......If the media changes course, and decides `good` news sells, then things can change quickly
Maybe a couple of years or so ago, I believe we both were disappointed that Obama didn`t concentrate on the economy before he got so involved with the healthcare......It`s come home to `rooste`
I haven`t really harped on it, but I think Ben B has way overdone the low to non existent interest rate....I think it was a good move in the beginning, and then it should have been moderated.....Everyone in the country that has set aside some funds for later security has been denied ......Just using the two of us as an example, when we make an investment that turns out to be a trade due to market volatility, shouldn`t we derive something as our money is being used ( the float) while we wait for another potential chance to invest it?? I think alot of this volatility is because no one is getting any return while they ponder what to do..
Ben B is supposed to be independent , but lately I have read that he is trying to facilitate the Democratic party`s agenda......It makes sense to me, that if that is the case, then he is just one more cog in the Obama administration.....As I use to be a supporter of the Obama administration, I feel let down, consequently I am not a supporter anymore.....but I don` think the man is totally at fault, just his team.....In other words, I don`t think `malice` twords him as an individual, just what he and his team has done, which is not what I wish they had been able to do..
Now we get to the next part---Who do the Republicans have for a candidate?? So far I am not encouraged....:) Tony ps As our company uses quite alot of borrowed funds, it is very obvious how the low interest rate come right to the bottom line....We still charge what the market will bear, and that also comes right to the bottom line, but I can say this is way overdone, as it just isn`t right....We --in the past have done just fine with way higher interest rates...Just think Volker
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
To answer your question, who the Republicans have? We have Herman Cain!!!... and the 9-9-9 plan! Yeah baby, 9-9-9.
Lastly, I don't want you or anyone here to think I am a doom and gloom believer, as I am not. I do, however, recognize that the media and general focus is quite negative, and much of that is due to the upcoming presidential election... so better get used to it. The problem is that it is self-fulfilling to an extent, and therefore it feeds upon itself and gets worse and worse, and in addition there are, in fact, legitimate serious issues here and abroad. So, we see this overload of too many problems going on all at once, and it is overwhelming and bound to have a negative reaction.
All that said, I still expect the market to be higher, as I have posted for a number of months.
TM
LOL... I sure don't want to be jinxed, thanks. Well, you are smart to avoid it perhaps... Sprint is clearly a risky stock, but it got sooooo low, that I could not resist it.
TM
Well... there is no guarantee, of course... and I would expect some issues that often go hand-in-hand with Republican administrations. But this seems different to me this time.
The Obama agenda is going the wrong direction, and the Republicans would reverse that, and that in and of itself would be good for the economy. Confidence in Obama has eroded, and uncertainty is too high. Having a republican in the White House would fix that immediately, without even doing a single thing!
For starters, the Obamacare nightmare will come to an end as soon as there is a Republican elected. EVERY Republican candidate has promised over and over again to repeal Obamacare. This will start things off on the right track.
Most of the Republicans have promised sweeping tax reform, and I actually think it will happen this time. I totally believe that if a Republican is elected president, we will see tax cuts and possibly a simpler tax code. I think we will see immigration issues dealt with, and efforts to cut the growing size of our government.
ALL these things (and more) will start to get our country on the right track.
At this point, I am a supporter of Herman Cain. He is the guy to beat Obama. He has the better vision for America, and the racial field becomes level ground. Unlike Obama, he understands business, first hand. He can win.
TM
I`l mention that I am concerned if this keeps up too much longer, we can easily wake up one Monday morning, and the market just gaps down a thousand , and does so the next morning, carrying Apple down a hundred, and then more the next day......There was a good book written a long time ago, called `Ragtime`, maybe written by `Daktrow (sp).......It just said---short form--` One day the manufacturing plant was making pots and pans, and the next day the orders just stopped cold`....That was the beginning of the great depression....Tony
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I agree with that possibility.
If it happens I will buy more AAPL shares. But, I might be out BEFORE that would happen. There are often signs, but you are definitely right... we could all be blindsided! That's why I don't own a ton of them now. I am currently holding 750 shares of AAPL, and I typically own 500. That number varies because I am sooooo focused on ringing the register now and then, and reducing my average base cost, so when the stock declines, I buy more, and then sell the same number of shares when/if it regains to the new lowered base. It also reduces my exposure to risk.
TM
Bingo!!
With Obama at the helm, we already know we are in deep doo-doo.
At least with the Republicans we have a small chance.
Small chance? By comparison, BIG chance!!
TM
Of course it's gambling. I have played my share of poker in my day and I know what gambling is all about.
There is no assurance that what you "HOPE" will happen in the stock market will ACTUALLY happen.
You are absolutely correct. My thinking here is that I am only talking about 90 shares instead of 700 or more. And, if my scenario takes place where AAPL shoots up to $423 suddenly and I sell, but it keeps going higher, so be it. I may then decide to purchase some shares at a higher price, who knows.
You will pick up a few bucks now and then. It will be very interesting, so I must request that you keep us posted....
And, good luck with this.
TM
If Cain could restore Godfather's to what it once was, I would give him support :shades: I am not sure how he is on social issues - we can't forget that controls so much of the vote.
A few posts back, Tony had posted a very legitimate concern that the market could suddenly tank, and as an example we could all wake up one Monday morning and suddenly be facing a massive selloff.
Scary thought.
Since you are the one investor here that did the very best job of reading the tea leaves in 2008, and you were able to avoid the bloodbath... that makes you responsible to warn all of us in advance if Tony's concern should become a reality.
No pressure, of course.
TM
I think that one thing did more to stop expansion and hiring than anything else. Now Obama is using the waivers to coerce businesses into hiring. I think the list of companies getting waivers from Obamacare is over 1500. It is like an extortion racket.
I also like Cain. He has a good business mind and his tax reform plan may just work.
I noticed that Netflix was up in pre-market trading by several dollars per share from my cost per share. So... I sold my 1,000 shares this morning in the early minutes of pre-market and quickly pocketed $4,000.
Since then it has gone up even a couple dollars more (in pre-market, now as I post this), and I could have pocketed $6K. And for all I know, if I had waited longer I might have made $10K, $20K, or even more... or further down the road not made anything at all... but your post was so negative about Netflix that it concerned me enough to consider the $4K to be a very nice little gift.
Just thought you might like to know.
Edit: Gains have since doubled since I sold my shares! Seems Dreamworks Animation has signed a deal with Netflix! :surprise:
TM
No pressure, of course.
No, I do NOT see a new meltdown of the likes we saw in 2008/2009. Not even close! Back then, we had a total collapse of some huge banking institutions here in the U.S. That is far from reality now. Plus, companies in general are doing very well now and they will continue to prosper. 6 months to a year from now, the Stock Market will be looking a lot stronger than it does now.
Trust me... you are going on an adventure with your eTrade account! You have barely begun today's session, and you already believe you have made a mistake. A lot can and will happen.
I don't know of any significant negative news specific to AAPL (just the ongoing legal stuff).
This morning, when Apple's share price went down, I bought thousands of shares, and then as it started back up, I sold them back, resulting in a much better overall average cost per share. So, now instead of suffering a loss, I am ahead $7,000 (at this moment). And, since I retained 1,000 shares, once the stock regains the rest of today's losses, I will gain $1000 for every dollar it regains.
If it goes back down, I will repeat the same procedure to lower my cost.
That's my strategy I've been using successfully... it works!
TM
Holy smoke! You are a trading machine.
In my case, I would be a happy camper right now if I waited buying the 90 shares until this morning when AAPL dropped to the low $390's.
In my case, I would be a happy camper right now if I waited buying the 90 shares until this morning when AAPL dropped to the low $390's.
With a stock like AAPL, I don't have a heart attack because I already have confidence in the stock. What's the worst that could happen? That I own more of it than I intended, or that I sell off some of the excess? Everything is restored and improved once the share price goes back up because I have significantly lowered my share cost.
You can do the exact same thing, but on a smaller scale, as I understand your eTrade account is not your primary account. I have the sense that your eTrade account is somewhat of a recreational account.
What is your cost of the 90 shares you bought on Friday?
TM
About $404.50.
For now, let's consider using 45 more shares. Consider that if the share price were to re-visit today's lows, you could then buy another 45 shares. That would reduce your cost to about $400/share. Once the stock returns to $400/share you should sell 45 shares. The result is that you would own the same number of shares you owned originally, but at a better price.
And, at $400/share you would be even instead of a loss of $405.00. Also, when the stock returns to $404.50/share (your original cost) you would be ahead $405.00, instead of breaking even.
EDIT: I should warn you of the downside risk here. If the stock continues to go even lower, then you would wait until you feel it has re-established the next "low", and then you can use the last 45 shares to re-average your cost again, and re-do the strategy again... or you can simply wait. The stock would obviously return to $400/share before it returns to $404.50.
Unless you think the stock will never regain its losses.
BTW, the "news" was that there was rumor of reduced iPad orders from Apple to its suppliers.
Lastly... you can do the strategy at any time the share price goes lower than your current cost. You do not have to wait until it reaches the low of the day.
TM
The only reason I have taken the time to provide you all this info is that you posted that you made a mistake. So, as your friend, I was posting to you a way out. No, it's not rocket science, but it does require very fast hands-on diligent trading, and many folks would have a heart attack, as you yourself have said... casual investing like yours will not get the same gains.
If you don't actually think it was a mistake, then I don't want to waste time giving you information that you don't actually want or need. I am sure you will do fine in the long run. I was under the impression that your eTrade account was a seperate account for you to maximize your gains, not minimize them.
EDIT: Share price is getting attractive again at this moment.
EDIT 2: I am going to shift some of my AAPL shares to AMZN shares.
TM
For me , over the years, I just do not average down, as I make myself first admit I made a mistake buying when I did, then second , not to throw good money after bad.....I`m sitting right here with a stock that is now lower than where I purchased it.....For me the thought process is do I continue to hold it and to what price do I hold it too?? Very disciplined in my approach, and even when I have a great company like Apple, I will sell it and take a loss , no matter what...I hope Charlie also takes this to `heart` Tony
Throwing good money after bad is a terrible thing to do!... and I make every effort to never do that. As I have posted in the past, I have made some serious blunders and cut my losses and admitted my mistakes MANY times. It goes with the territory. Anyone who cannot admit a mistake and cut their loss should not be trading stocks, IMO.
That said, some stocks are not bad, IMO, and throwing more money into them is a good thing and not a bad thing. I believe AAPL is one of them. There is no one here on this forum that doesn't totally 100% believe that AAPL shares will go higher. So, putting more money into AAPL to decrease the cost average is a good idea from every perspective, IMO.
Buying AAPL shares on significant dips is also a good idea, IMO.
Please realize that I do not average down unless it is worth it. Many times patience is simply the best way to go. Also, there are times when its best to ring the register on a stock, take the gains, and call it quits.
EDIT: It looks like I did the right thing taking the $4,000 gain on Netflix in the pre-market session!!
TM
Here are two stories that could answer your question.
Android Saw Twice As Many Buyers As iPhone Over The Past 3 Months
http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/26/android-vs-iphone-sales/
Apple down on report of iPad supply slowdown
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/26/us-apple-shares-idUSTRE78P2KZ20110926
The "slowdown" is what has been the primary concern today, but it is kind of silly because Apple always starts to wind down its orders when it is planning a replacement product. The iPad3 debut could have something to do with the slowdown of orders for iPad2. It depends upon the official realease date, which is not yet official.
And whether that's the reason of not, Apple has only touched the surface of its sales potential.
Quality competition isn't a bad thing, IMO. It further legitimizes the products and intensifies consumer interest.
That's why I also purchased 500 shares of AMZN at its low. Their new product could be a winner, and if not, it will stimulate iPad sales.
TM
Do you think it might have been a good idea to have invested 50% - 75% of the etrade money?... so you would have been able to massage your investment a little more? Maybe on the next big gain, you should sell a portion and then you'd have some "working capital"
BTW, I am soooooo glad I applied my little strategy this morning. I am up an extra $10,000 on AAPL as a result.
I am going to have a cold one later to celebrate!
TM
Do you think it might have been a good idea to have invested 50% - 75% of the etrade money?... so you would have been able to massage your investment a little more? Maybe on the next big gain, you should sell a portion and then you'd have some "working capital"
Loking back, it would have absolutely been the right thing to do. Instead, I dived right in so that "I would not miss the move to $425 from $405". What a dumbass I was, right?
While I am at it, if the stock market were a more suitable place to invest, and I were investing in Appple, I would do as you say, and I would make my buys in four stages... fifty percent , first, twenty five percent and then two smaller percentages.....over a decent period of time......and when I sell I like to sell the huge majority right out the box, and of course at a nice gain
I just came back from the one of the malls here in Des Moines. I visited the Apple Store there. I did not see a supply problem with iPad2 at this store. BTW, I was very impressed with how busy it was on a lazy Monday afternoon when kids are in school.
My post on Netflix was for the long-term. I think their business model can get hurt on both the data acquisition side thru studios raising their cost and the distribution side by the companies with the pipe, and they really are in competion as they are looking for PPV of course. Also streaming during high internet usage periods gets interrupted. We tried a movie on a Saturday evening once and gave up on it because it kept getting interrupted even with the wireless connection nearby. The DVD portion of the business is more costly to operate but it's also the cream of the business from a product standpoint. Also management has made terrible moves here with pricing and then scrambling to split the companies up literally with no thought process. Personally I think management ran the business on stock price rather than business sense. A smarter way to go would have been a 10-15% price increase rather than a 60% price increas. How can you think you can pull off a 60% PI in an economy like this?
Like I said, I was never a Netflix investor even when it was being hyped as the best thing since sliced bread.
Last Friday when I looked at the hammered share price and the behavior, I figured there was money on the table. I was thinking several days, but after reading your posts, I went for the quick kill in pre-market trading, and walked off with 4 big ones.
I'm certainly happy with that.
I'm more concerned with the overall direction of the market. I am not sure if it has strong legs yet. What's your thinking on that?
Anyway, thanks again.
TM
So, just to keep you updated, I am currently (at this moment) up 11.5% on this stock.
That's good, because I could absorb some downside, if it comes (and it probably will).
But so far, so good.
TM
http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/22/ubs-iphones-89-retention-rate-crushes-competition-- next-closest-is-htc-at-39/
As expected, the sales people at the Apple Store had no idea. I have a feeling the the iPad3 will not be launched until at least early 2012. The iPhone5 should be out in October.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-09-26/netflix-dreamworks-streaming-- video-deal/50559054/1
Note that at the bottom of the article indicates that by splitting the company into streaming and DVD makes it more attractive for someone like Amazon to buy Netflix and the streaming business.
The DVD portion of the business is more costly to operate but it's also the cream of the business from a product standpoint.
I'll respectfully disagree. The DVD business is going the way of the video tape and brick and mortar rental outlets. The customer that consumes DVD rentals is going away and being replaced by tech savvy, time shifting consumers of entertainment. Netflix is already vying to produce its own content which will be available only via streaming and perhaps purchase on DVD or electronically.
I could see Netflix being gobbled up by an entertainment company (Comcast, Sony, Disney, et al) or Amazon buying one of the entertainment companies for their content.
Personally I think management ran the business on stock price rather than business sense.
Huh!!!???? You mean companies are supposed to be about more than today's stock price and earnings report?? Be gone you from this forum!! :P
The word is out. It's been out for a while. A new and improved iPad3 will be out, probably by Spring 2012.
I don't think people mind getting an iPhone that's about to be replaced, when they need to set up cellular service. It's a logical choice, and it's not a big investment by any means.
The iPad isn't huge money, but it's certainly more costly than the iPhone, and with the knowledge that the new one is likely coming by Spring 2012, I know that I, for one, am holding off on buying one until the next one comes out. I think many folks are holding off as well. I want USB connectivity, which is likely, as well as the other improvements it will have.
Apple knows what it is doing... I think that's safe to say.
TM
Tell me it ain't so. I just paid $89 for a new DVD player. I do think DVDs will be around a long while. There are many places in the USA that cannot get enough bandwidth to make streaming Video reliable. It is more of a city thing where there is fiber to the curb. Believe it or not there are towns in America where you cannot get DSL. Still using dial up modems for Internet. I have a friend in Anadarko, OK that has tried to get DSL from the phone company for the last several years. She has no cable TV either.