Another good story here on life at Apple after Steve Jobs. The references to Disney after Walt Disney passed away are the type of mistakes Apple has to avoid. The company has to be true to Steve's type of management and creativiity but at the same time has to avoid the "what would Steve Jobs do" syndrome.
Agreed. They need to develop their own creative path that unlocks the future of technology without Steve's guidance.
Extremely hard to do. I agree change is exactly what they need! Do you think Steve would say from the other side of the Universe: "Only do what I would do."
I'll bet he is saying:"Make sure change at Apple is the fastest/best/most innovative in the industry."
Do not like this quote, however: “I want you to be confident that Apple is not going to change,” Mr. Cook wrote.
What he should have said??? "I want you to be confident that Apple will continue to change ahead of our competition. Steve would not accept anything less."
Do not like this quote, however: “I want you to be confident that Apple is not going to change,” Mr. Cook wrote.
I believe what he really meant by this is that Apple is not going to change from Steve's vision. And his vision always involved necessary changes to build better products for the world.
I basically agree with you, but I do think at the time he was addressing the management change.....For me Mr Jobs created trouble free computers and programming to match.....as he said `It just works`..
Slowly over the years I have come to understand most of MY problems (other than ignorance) is just dealing with the carriers......Just getting the wireless set up and running is a major pain......There is no reason for that to be such a major hassle....I hope someday to see that problem addressed......Even with the Ipad, my wife and I both had connectivity issues....and up at the Apple store, there were many additional people like us, and the Genius Desk was also having alot of problems---particularly with AT&T-----it is now my understanding the new phone will largely help AT&T with it`s bundling ability.....Makes a person wonder what is really going on?? and to have Verizon not work up here in the mountains is a big disappointment----as I hope to go all wireless ....Oh Well Tony
I have to admit that sometime in the early to mid 80's, I bought one on the first Apple computers. I can remember that it had a very small black and white screen and cost around $1500. I think I bought it from Radio Shack, but I am not sure. I fooled around with it a few days and got bored with it. Too complicated for me I guess !
My wife told me I was crazy and made me take it back. I only wish I would have used that $1500. to buy Apple stock. Who knew ?
The uncertainty now combined with the erratic behavior of the markets in terms of US political uncertainty and misbehavior as well as the world's state of economy makes this a treacherous time for Apple.
To me the point that Apple brought out a small step in the product advancement rather than a bold step to the next level is typical of Apple. After Radio Shack TRSIIIs, I started with Apple II computers and loved the Macintosh. But I realized that they were famous for overcharging for less product, making small advancements in the product and always leaving the bestest and greatest for that next announcement. Their product was always behind the speeds and availability of support for the PC world. Finally, I switch to PCs and never looked back. If I want to overspend for less based on the ambiance of a product, it will be a car.
That history of Apple is always in the back of my mind as I read this forum.
I read that as he intended Apple to continue to be the leadership company in the space. Thiis guy is a great operator and will IMO be the first to recognize change when it is needed. The issue is whether or not he or someone else in the company has visionary capabilities. I'm sure there are several but none that can match Steve Jobs.
Steve Jobs was one of a kind. When he got pushed out of Apple he went elsewhere and used his talents. He was not a billionaire until he pushed Pixar to the forefront of animation. He left Apple this time sitting on top of the World. It will be interesting to see if anyone can match or come close to matching his vision.
Mark Zuckerberg is on track to becoming a one-of-a-kind legend, but at his young age he has a lot of time to falter. He's had a remarkable impact so far, however, and no matter what happens next he'll always be remembered as a major agent of change in the tech world. Jeff Bezos is another one, I'd say. Sergei Brin and Larry Page are also tech giants. And we should include Bill Gates in this group.
Whether these guys (why no women?) match Steve Jobs would make for an interesting disussion. The media, at least today, seems to think that Jobs in a class above the others.
I think part of that is because Jobs had some style. More than a master of making products, he/his firm became a master of packaging and design. This reflects back on him. None of those others really have anything to stand on when it comes to visual appeal - but everyone knows the Apple "look".
I would include Meg Whitman in that group. She did take eBay from nothing to the giant it is today. When Meg took over eBay they had 30 employees. When she left they had 15,000 employees and $8 billion in revenue. She would probably be creating jobs in CA if she had gotten elected governor. We ended up with do nothing Moonbeam. She has a real opportunity to show what she has at HP.
Steve realized if a product looked cool it was ahead of the others before you ever turn it on. I don't believe Apple products are always technically superior. They almost always look better than the competition.
I thought about including Meg Whitman, but didn't because Amazon's performance has been so much superior to Ebay's. In fact, Ebay's performance has improved since Whitman left. That said, I think Whitman is very talented. She's got a shot at greatness now at HP, if she can restore that company to the leadership it enjoyed since Carly Fiorina's and Mark Hurd's tenures as Ebay CEOs.
My son, sent me this video this morning. I think you will all get a great kick out of watching it. It's about 10 minutes long but I guarantee you will enjoy it.
Jobs setups up computer and turns it on to show the ease of setup, demostrate the speed, and "insanely great" display.
Specs: - $2,495 - Introduces the 32-bit 68000 CPU - Memory: 192k - ROM 64k - RAM: 128k - Introduces the 3.5" (400k) floppy disc as the "disc of teh 80s" - RS232, RS422, and AppleBus Interconnect ports. - Built-in voice and sound speech - "HD, super-crisp, bitmap, 9" screen"
To me the point that Apple brought out a small step in the product advancement rather than a bold step to the next level is typical of Apple.
In reality the iPhone 4S is a big step in product advancement. What it doesn't have is a new form factor. If they had changed that a bit and called it the iPhone 5, everyone would have been happy - except Verizon customers who have only had access to the 4 since earlier this year.
I think part of that is because Jobs had some style. More than a master of making products, he/his firm became a master of packaging and design. This reflects back on him. None of those others really have anything to stand on when it comes to visual appeal - but everyone knows the Apple "look".
Further, Jobs understood the user. Apple is famous for bypassing IT departments and techies and focusing on the user. If decisions were left up to the former, we'd all still be using Motorola Razrs.
Specs: - $2,495 - Introduces the 32-bit 68000 CPU - Memory: 192k - ROM 64k - RAM: 128k - Introduces the 3.5" (400k) floppy disc as the "disc of teh 80s" - RS232, RS422, and AppleBus Interconnect ports. - Built-in voice and sound speech - "HD, super-crisp, bitmap, 9" screen"
Bob Lutz is another guy who dislikes focus groups, but is obviously not in the same class as Steve Jobs. Lutz was responsible for the Holden based GTO, the Pontiac Solstice/Saturn Sky and the Saturn Astra. These were hardly successes. The Pontiac G8, while a good car, failed to catch on. It may have been a case of too little, too late, in that Pontiac's image as a performance car was badly tarnished by the time the G8 was introduced. To be fair, Lutz also had numerous successes during his long automotive career.
I am always in search of the perfect burger and I found it on-line. In fact this is the best burger I ever tasted at home or in a restaurant. I no longer grill them directly on the fire. I now put them on the barbecue in an iron pan and flip them only once when the juice oozes thru the uncooked side (and never pat them down as all you do is take juice and flavor out of them) and then cook them another 2 minutes or so for a usually perfectly even medium rare. The pan ensures even heating and equal flavor. These are extremely juicy and very tasty melt in your mouth steakburgers. Very highly recomended if you love a great juicy burger. Usually a spend of $125 gets you free shipping if you look on-line for coupons. I bought the 8 0z package of 12 along with filet mignon on the bone. The filet on the bone is so superior to ordinary filet mignon but it is hard to find.
You just talked me into trying this. Those burgers look delicious. I am going to surprise my wife with this purchase when I get home from MA. I'm not telling her. Do they ship these frozen on dry ice or what? So, obviously this must be a terrific steak and burger company coming from you.
Btw, why do you think AAPL sold off from a high of $384 sometime on Thursday to $369 now? Is it due to Steve's passing or is it something more subtle? Could it be that the big boys are trying to drive the price even lower ahead of the next earnings report on October 18?
I wish I could understand Apple trading better. Why trade out ahead of earnings that are always blockbuster? If the company was at a high multiple and there was a fear of an earnings slowdown I'd understand it. But the multiple on the company is too low.
Re Allen's - they supply some of the finest steakhouses in the US. Make sure you get the Wagyu burgers not their prime steakburgers. The latter are a lot drier and not as tasty. The Wagyu just melt in your mouth if you cook them medium rare. They are very soft and tender and the meat thawed out looks very rich before you cook it. They ship frozen on dry ice and you pick the day you want it delivered as they want to make sure someone is home. I've also had their Porterhouse and it's also fabulous. But I have a local butcher who sells dry aged prime meats only and his is fabulous and of course it's much cheaper. I've had filet on the bone at The Homestead in NYC and two local restaurants by me have it as a special, one as a daily special. Once you've had filet on the bone, the normal filet is run of the mill. Allen's is one of the few places I saw it.
Charlie, if you try their meats let me know your thoughts.
BTW - Peter Luger in Brooklyn also sells their steaks on-line now and they actually ship it fresh.
why do you think AAPL sold off from a high of $384 sometime on Thursday to $369 now? Is it due to Steve's passing or is it something more subtle? Could it be that the big boys are trying to drive the price even lower ahead of the next earnings report on October 18?
Personally, I don't see it as a huge selloff. But, I do think it's mostly about the iPad. And what's next from Apple? There seems to be a void. How long can Apple rely on the same products and still charge that kind of premium?
Something's gotta give... Maybe not right now, but soon.
Investors recognize strong competition from Samsung and Amazon... especially against the iPad, which could be showing signs of vulnerability and weakness. The very recent appearance of a $35 tablet from India is an eye-opener!! Intel's Ultra book is imminent... and, Android sales are flexing muscle.
Apple better dazzle us with something incredible again, or the sizzle will fizzle sooner than you think.
Also, the global picture isn't as rosy as it was. If it gets better, AAPL shares (and others) will go up... but with limitations, due to the reasons I stated above.
And, investors will need to hear some monster earnings and positive guidance to move the share price significanlty higher... IMHO.
I personally think we will see AAPL share price in the range of $359 to $439 for quite a while... and then finally $439 - $499, also for a long while... but only if the earnings reports are very favorable, and the product pipeline is exciting. Even then, I don't think you will see it go much higher than that for a very, very long time... unless there is a sensational new product release from AAPL as incredible as the iPhone and iPad were.
I'd be careful about how much more you invest. And, if/when it reaches the mid $400's... consider ringing the register, and pat yourself on the back for the great investment you made over the years with Apple.
Personally, I don't see it as a huge selloff. But, I do think it's mostly about the iPad. And what's next from Apple? There seems to be a void. How long can Apple rely on the same products and still charge that kind of premium?
Inversely you have to ask what made Apple run to $424 just before the sell-off. My feeling is that the whole market repositioned itself at the quarter as we saw rotation trading with the Dow up a lot while Nasdaq was down and vice-versa. I'm not of the belief that Apple has to have blow out earnings all the time because their multiple is hardly representative of blow out earnings. I think folks are looking around for the next big thing from Apple and d'ont see it. TV is the obvious but even Steve Jobs has failed repeatedly in TV. TV is very hard to crack because of the Cable companies and the big inroads of the DVR box and the fact that streaming is just not the high quality picture of direct broadcast. People are also not accustomed to paying for a set-top box and d'ont want anymore clutter around their TV cabinets.
Finally so many companies have now had the gains from their blow-out earnings of Q2 washed way. Google ran to over $600 and now has lost their 15% gains on earnings release night. Apple's earnings report was one of the most amazing reports of all time and is now treated as if it was never reported. We have a market that continues to trade on fear rather than fundamentals. There are times thanks to high volume trading that I wonder if fundamentals will ever mean anything again. So while a more lackluster earnings report may hurt Apple, like a blockbuster earnings report it will only be temporary. But based on the lines I saw at the Apple stores I'd expect another blowout earnings report.
Good story on Wagyu beef here. The meat is fatty precooked but all that fat is gone after cooking. This beef is actually pro low cholestrol. I have got to try a Wagyu porterhouse.
I think if you are frying your burger in a pan, the fat is still going to be there...
But, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.. Fat is what makes burgers taste good.. The gourmet burger guys usually specify an 80/20 or 81/19, lean/fat ratio.....
High frequency trading being scrutinized closely. I like the tax idea to thwart heavy excess speculation and trading volume. No doubt in my mind that this high frequency trading is behind the crazy volatility, sometimes showing up in 30-60 second timespans or less, and the lack of fundamentals in the market.
The old-fashioned floor trading was bound to be replaced by computers, which is a good thing. HFT, however, is a totally different animal, and market manipulation is the real problem. Staging massive numbers of phony orders that swing the market, only to be cancelled just in the nick of time is a bigger problem... only one of many.
How do you stop that? The transaction tax you said you support won't work, because those massive orders that get cancelled aren't actually fulfilled. Yet, they move (manipulate) the market.
I suspect the problem is much worse than this author writes about, and will get even worse, not better.
I watched the market closely every minute for months. I could have done an analytical study. I posted here my impressions. They were very dire. With exception of my recent software mishap, I learned the ropes. I warned of the ETFs, the algorithms, the bizarre share price movements, the instant reverses and the flushing mechanisms... all designed to take a trader's money. Deliberate high-percentage sudden declines which result in traders selling out at a loss (fooled into cutting their losses) and then the price suddenly climbs again, and those traders actually cut their gains, not their losses, as they were victimized by the manipulation.
I've seen it with my own eyes. I learned lessons in the earliest days, and then finally learned how to profit from the swings. It's nuts. I posted about it. It's very real. I am not even sure I want to ever go back in the stock market. I probably will, but I hate it. It's not like it used to be. It's tragically broken. It is sooooo corrupted. As I said, more than that NY Times article discusses. And, I am not hopeful that the market can be fixed.
I have the same feelings about the market you have reiterated. For that reason I pick stocks and funds I have some faith in and just sit on them. Over the last 10 years they have gone way up and way down. However those that got out and missed the ups have less net worth than those that have stuck it out. If I had your skills and guts I would probably try playing the odds. I don't, so I just kind of go with the flow. I think over the long haul I will be better off than sticking it in the bank and watching it get worth less as the Fed continues to print more and more dollars.
Earlier today the power went out, so not only could I not use the computer, but not the water, or lights or heater....Amazing what an invention electricity was.....So many uses....As I sat here wondering what was going on with the market, it seemed to me that this was part of the punishment for mis-purchasing Apple.....I know I have to just` lick my wounds`until another chance comes around..And it will...and soon...but in the mean time there are many other stocks or etf that represent value ......Tony
I know you spent countless hours trying to figure out all the idiosyncrasies of high powered trading. You pretty much had it all figured out. I feel confident that you will once again get the confidence to get back in the game after that terrible misfortune you had.
Today I managed to watch a few experts on the financial channels. Well-respected fellows, that have strong and contrasting views on the market.
The general concensus is that this market is still very volatile and dangerous, and that this recent surge could be short-lived, and that the market will have at least another serious downturn, and that the market is already over-bought. However, many expect it to be higher by years end or by next summer.
In addition, there is a lot of talk about the triple dip in the housing crisis.
How can that be good for the economy?
I am not yet convinced that this market is that healthy, just because Europe's problems APPEAR to be less serious at this very moment.
It's still crazy, IMO.
I'm still waiting on the sidelines. I own zero shares of ANY stock, including AAPL.
I might be missing out on one of the biggest opportunities, but I am still not convinced.
At least you have to give yourself credit for being cautious.....as well as informed....I am of the opinion that the trading machines and desperate brokers are keeping thing un-balanced, so disaster can strike at any moment...
I think if you refine your program just a touch, you could head off some destructive swings......Such as not immediately purchase a stock you already purchased at a lower price until you have had a day to reflect on the first purchase.....Now that surely doesn`t mean I have a real insight ...Just a suggestion, that you might be able to work into your thought process....
It is always hard to re-enter the market after a turbulent time , as for some reason the market changes it`s stripes....What I mean is some unit of days the markt has really wild swings, and it is fairly easy to catch some nice point swings, then the next week you would be lucky to make a half point.....
You know-further--until the error was made, you were waxing right along.....It`l just take a bit of time to get your legs under you again.... don`t push it....ease back into your stride Tony
The stock has been absolutely hammered and the company is sending out all kinds of cofusing data. Supposedly there was a new DVD business and they were scurrying to create a web site. But now they - according to this e-mail i just got - are going to keep just one website for DVD and streaming. But are there two companies?? Seems like Qwikster is now dead even though they named a president. It seems they put little thought into what the price increase would mean and even less into what their announcements mean. I dropped the DVD's so I couldn't care less. The stock is down to 111 and the PE at 28 is still far too high.
Netflix e-mail:
It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs.
This means no change: one website, one account, one password in other words, no Qwikster.
While the July price change was necessary, we are now done with price changes.
We're constantly improving our streaming selection. We've recently added hundreds of movies from Paramount, Sony, Universal, Fox, Warner Bros., Lionsgate, MGM and Miramax. Plus, in the last couple of weeks alone, we've added over 3,500 TV episodes from ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, USA, E!, Nickelodeon, Disney Channel, ABC Family, Discovery Channel, TLC, SyFy, A&E, History, and PBS.
We value you as a member, and we are committed to making Netflix the best place to get your movies & TV shows.
Just look at some things with perspective. Everyone is cheering that AAPL went up so much? Really? Prior ot that, it got HAMMERED!! And, it's still LESS than where it was weeks ago BEFORE the iPhone 4s was introduced.
The financials were beaten to a pulp, and now they have regained some of the losses, and everyone is cheering?
The European situation and the dollar's value is largely what has been behind the recent losses and gains. The market lost a ton, and has recently regained only SOME of that loss. Certainly it's nice to have purchased some stocks at their lows, but most folks didn't, and are still trying to come back to even... which is a LOT higher than where the market is now.
The market has a looooooong way to go before it is a bull market again. This current activity is another in a series of dramatic market swings. It always feels better when the swing is up, but will it last?
This could easily be a bear market rally.
The same challenges to the economy are still there. Nothing has changed enough to suddenly think we are in a bull market. We are not in a bull market. Be patient. Watch the housing crisis, unemployment and the deficit situation. Keep your eye on China and Europe. If all those factors start to improve, then we might begin to think we are truly going up.
On the brighter side, it's possible that the market is starting to remove the US "recession" factor out of the equation, and if some of the other "issues" I mentioned are improved, then I think the market could legitimately go significantly higher. Otherwise we are simply moving to the higher side of a trading range.
On a long-term basis, only buy the big dips and hold on for the ride... cause this roller coaster has still got a ways to go.
Tag---This sort of fits your overall strategy, until November.....Apple seems to march to a different drummer.....Just a guess on my part, but if it does not get too close to the high, before the earnings, I think I will re-enter...If it does get close to the high, I think I`l step aside......If I take the chance, it will be very close to the announcement, and I would probably sell in the aftermarket, assuming I was right.....Eventually I would like to just be a simple old investor, and get a lower cost basis and then let it perk for a while...
The thing about Apple is that there are legions of people like me, who have had a good experience with their products, and would not consider changing, or go back to the products we came from.....I don`t see how a person could go wrong with them, but no matter what I always sell a stock that drops---at a certain point.....Tony
Right on the money. I think until Europe showed it can contain its crisis, we are still up for big swings. Just too many hands in the pot there, it's hard for them to take quick and decisive actions.
Yeah, it seems crazy to get in the market at this moment... at least in any big way. I do concede there is a chance of missing a very big comeback, but it just seems too irratic to buy into it... especially at this point.
There is always money to be made in the stock market when it is healthy... and I would not classify this as a healthy market.
Just like you, I can't figure out what to invest in for the short term, so I am on the side lines as well. I've also lose a big chunk of LFA funds due to this volatile markets, but fortunately my Qlikview business is doing well to compensate for the losses.
Just like you, I can't figure out what to invest in for the short term, so I am on the side lines as well.
Well, it's not totally like that, although there's little doubt that I am not tuned in to the market as well as I was, since I have not been watching it nearly as closely as I had been, and have been totally out of the market.
You might remember, I almost jumped back in. So, it's not like I haven't seen some of the opportunities. It's no secret that I bought 1,000 shares of AAPL when it hit around $351. I posted about it. I was about to buy an additional 1,000 shares when my wife came in my home office and nearly caught me. I had just previously informed her about that "little $100K screw-up", and she asked me to layoff for a while, just to take a breather, and I had agreed. So, when those AAPL shares took that dive, my instincts kicked in, and I knew I wanted to buy a couple thousand shares. At $351/share, I wanted 'em bad... really bad.
But, as she came in the office and I saw that "look" in her eyes, I realized I had already taken that fateful first step of breaking my word to her and branding myself a liar... so instead of hitting the "buy" button for another 1,000 shares, I hit the "sell" button, and I no longer owned any shares at all. I redeemed myself (but only for the most part, because I took that first step).
So, my whole story just keeps getting worse, depending on how you look at it. Afterall, consider that I initially screwed up the $100K, then I made a promise to my wife I probably shouldn't have ever made, and then I started to break that same promise, and then I missed a 1,000 point market rally... Damn.
I don't know what's going on, but I think God may be teaching me something at this point about my priorities. I think it's entirely realisitic to say that I had gotten too obsessed with the market... the way I was trading every minute of every day, including pre-market and after-market hours... and constantly in front of the computer, trading like a freaking maniac... probably looking a lot like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain.
Lesson learned?
But, all that aside, this market is a loooong ways from its highs. Heck, I remember our lofty exhuberant predictions. Were we drunk? I do still believe that it wouldn't take much for this sick, broken market to decline 500 - 1,000 points just as quickly as it gained them. Frankly, I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but if it should, and there is another opportunity from a big dip, I would likely jump back into the market... but my investing and trading would be more balanced. I don't intend to spend every freaking waking moment day-trading the stock market again.
That is, not unless I go broke and need the money that badly. And, if that desperate situation were to happen, I guess I could honestly say that my many months of boot-camp day-trading experience taught me how to sacrifice life and make money (or lose it, if you're not careful) in the stock market by day-trading.
The title of my new book?... LOL... "How to sacrifice life and make a fortune (or lose it, if you're not careful) in the stock market by day-trading".
Anyway, opportunities WILL come again. They always do. It's only a matter of time. And, glad to hear the Qlikview business is going well! You're a very intelligent fellow, and I am confident your LFA funds will be just fine in the long run.
Stellar review of the iPhone in todays NY Times. You've got to fear not being in Apple right now with reviews like this and earnings due out in less than a week. The stock probably soars to 450 next week.
Then of course you have to put up with the NY Times liberal stupidity and this editorial just makes me sick. Whoever wrote this is living in fantasyland.
Comments
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/06/technology/for-apple-a-big-loss-requires-a-bal- - - ancing-act.html?ref=business
Extremely hard to do. I agree change is exactly what they need! Do you think Steve would say from the other side of the Universe: "Only do what I would do."
I'll bet he is saying: "Make sure change at Apple is the fastest/best/most innovative in the industry."
Do not like this quote, however: “I want you to be confident that Apple is not going to change,” Mr. Cook wrote.
What he should have said??? "I want you to be confident that Apple will continue to change ahead of our competition. Steve would not accept anything less."
Regards,
OW
I believe what he really meant by this is that Apple is not going to change from Steve's vision. And his vision always involved necessary changes to build better products for the world.
Slowly over the years I have come to understand most of MY problems (other than ignorance) is just dealing with the carriers......Just getting the wireless set up and running is a major pain......There is no reason for that to be such a major hassle....I hope someday to see that problem addressed......Even with the Ipad, my wife and I both had connectivity issues....and up at the Apple store, there were many additional people like us, and the Genius Desk was also having alot of problems---particularly with AT&T-----it is now my understanding the new phone will largely help AT&T with it`s bundling ability.....Makes a person wonder what is really going on?? and to have Verizon not work up here in the mountains is a big disappointment----as I hope to go all wireless
My wife told me I was crazy and made me take it back. I only wish I would have used that $1500. to buy Apple stock. Who knew ?
Rest in Peace Steve.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
To me the point that Apple brought out a small step in the product advancement rather than a bold step to the next level is typical of Apple. After Radio Shack TRSIIIs, I started with Apple II computers and loved the Macintosh. But I realized that they were famous for overcharging for less product, making small advancements in the product and always leaving the bestest and greatest for that next announcement. Their product was always behind the speeds and availability of support for the PC world. Finally, I switch to PCs and never looked back. If I want to overspend for less based on the ambiance of a product, it will be a car.
That history of Apple is always in the back of my mind as I read this forum.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Whether these guys (why no women?) match Steve Jobs would make for an interesting disussion. The media, at least today, seems to think that Jobs in a class above the others.
Steve realized if a product looked cool it was ahead of the others before you ever turn it on. I don't believe Apple products are always technically superior. They almost always look better than the competition.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KkENSYkMgs&feature=email
Jobs setups up computer and turns it on to show the ease of setup, demostrate the speed, and "insanely great" display.
Specs:
- $2,495
- Introduces the 32-bit 68000 CPU
- Memory: 192k
- ROM 64k
- RAM: 128k
- Introduces the 3.5" (400k) floppy disc as the "disc of teh 80s"
- RS232, RS422, and AppleBus Interconnect ports.
- Built-in voice and sound speech
- "HD, super-crisp, bitmap, 9" screen"
In reality the iPhone 4S is a big step in product advancement. What it doesn't have is a new form factor. If they had changed that a bit and called it the iPhone 5, everyone would have been happy - except Verizon customers who have only had access to the 4 since earlier this year.
Further, Jobs understood the user. Apple is famous for bypassing IT departments and techies and focusing on the user. If decisions were left up to the former, we'd all still be using Motorola Razrs.
- $2,495
- Introduces the 32-bit 68000 CPU
- Memory: 192k
- ROM 64k
- RAM: 128k
- Introduces the 3.5" (400k) floppy disc as the "disc of teh 80s"
- RS232, RS422, and AppleBus Interconnect ports.
- Built-in voice and sound speech
- "HD, super-crisp, bitmap, 9" screen"
And you could have run the world with that!!
Many times that is true. Focus groups often lead to design by committee and we get the Pontiac Aztek.
http://www.allenbrothers.com/allen-brothers-wagyu-steak-burger.html
You just talked me into trying this. Those burgers look delicious. I am going to surprise my wife with this purchase when I get home from MA. I'm not telling her. Do they ship these frozen on dry ice or what? So, obviously this must be a terrific steak and burger company coming from you.
Btw, why do you think AAPL sold off from a high of $384 sometime on Thursday to $369 now? Is it due to Steve's passing or is it something more subtle? Could it be that the big boys are trying to drive the price even lower ahead of the next earnings report on October 18?
Re Allen's - they supply some of the finest steakhouses in the US. Make sure you get the Wagyu burgers not their prime steakburgers. The latter are a lot drier and not as tasty. The Wagyu just melt in your mouth if you cook them medium rare. They are very soft and tender and the meat thawed out looks very rich before you cook it. They ship frozen on dry ice and you pick the day you want it delivered as they want to make sure someone is home. I've also had their Porterhouse and it's also fabulous. But I have a local butcher who sells dry aged prime meats only and his is fabulous and of course it's much cheaper. I've had filet on the bone at The Homestead in NYC and two local restaurants by me have it as a special, one as a daily special. Once you've had filet on the bone, the normal filet is run of the mill. Allen's is one of the few places I saw it.
Charlie, if you try their meats let me know your thoughts.
BTW - Peter Luger in Brooklyn also sells their steaks on-line now and they actually ship it fresh.
Peter Luger's butcher shop:
http://www.peterluger.com/ourmeats.cfm
Personally, I don't see it as a huge selloff. But, I do think it's mostly about the iPad. And what's next from Apple? There seems to be a void. How long can Apple rely on the same products and still charge that kind of premium?
Something's gotta give... Maybe not right now, but soon.
Investors recognize strong competition from Samsung and Amazon... especially against the iPad, which could be showing signs of vulnerability and weakness. The very recent appearance of a $35 tablet from India is an eye-opener!! Intel's Ultra book is imminent... and, Android sales are flexing muscle.
Apple better dazzle us with something incredible again, or the sizzle will fizzle sooner than you think.
Also, the global picture isn't as rosy as it was. If it gets better, AAPL shares (and others) will go up... but with limitations, due to the reasons I stated above.
And, investors will need to hear some monster earnings and positive guidance to move the share price significanlty higher... IMHO.
I personally think we will see AAPL share price in the range of $359 to $439 for quite a while... and then finally $439 - $499, also for a long while... but only if the earnings reports are very favorable, and the product pipeline is exciting. Even then, I don't think you will see it go much higher than that for a very, very long time... unless there is a sensational new product release from AAPL as incredible as the iPhone and iPad were.
I'd be careful about how much more you invest. And, if/when it reaches the mid $400's... consider ringing the register, and pat yourself on the back for the great investment you made over the years with Apple.
TM
I certainly will.
Inversely you have to ask what made Apple run to $424 just before the sell-off. My feeling is that the whole market repositioned itself at the quarter as we saw rotation trading with the Dow up a lot while Nasdaq was down and vice-versa. I'm not of the belief that Apple has to have blow out earnings all the time because their multiple is hardly representative of blow out earnings. I think folks are looking around for the next big thing from Apple and d'ont see it. TV is the obvious but even Steve Jobs has failed repeatedly in TV. TV is very hard to crack because of the Cable companies and the big inroads of the DVR box and the fact that streaming is just not the high quality picture of direct broadcast. People are also not accustomed to paying for a set-top box and d'ont want anymore clutter around their TV cabinets.
Finally so many companies have now had the gains from their blow-out earnings of Q2 washed way. Google ran to over $600 and now has lost their 15% gains on earnings release night. Apple's earnings report was one of the most amazing reports of all time and is now treated as if it was never reported. We have a market that continues to trade on fear rather than fundamentals. There are times thanks to high volume trading that I wonder if fundamentals will ever mean anything again. So while a more lackluster earnings report may hurt Apple, like a blockbuster earnings report it will only be temporary. But based on the lines I saw at the Apple stores I'd expect another blowout earnings report.
Good story on Wagyu beef here. The meat is fatty precooked but all that fat is gone after cooking. This beef is actually pro low cholestrol. I have got to try a Wagyu porterhouse.
http://www.wagyu.net/home.html
But, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.. Fat is what makes burgers taste good.. The gourmet burger guys usually specify an 80/20 or 81/19, lean/fat ratio.....
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About 200,000 for just AT&T. No word from Verizon or Sprint yet. Sprint is the most interesting to me.
TM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/business/clamping-down-on-rapid-trades-in-stoc- k-market.html?_r=1&ref=business
How do you stop that? The transaction tax you said you support won't work, because those massive orders that get cancelled aren't actually fulfilled. Yet, they move (manipulate) the market.
I suspect the problem is much worse than this author writes about, and will get even worse, not better.
I watched the market closely every minute for months. I could have done an analytical study. I posted here my impressions. They were very dire. With exception of my recent software mishap, I learned the ropes. I warned of the ETFs, the algorithms, the bizarre share price movements, the instant reverses and the flushing mechanisms... all designed to take a trader's money. Deliberate high-percentage sudden declines which result in traders selling out at a loss (fooled into cutting their losses) and then the price suddenly climbs again, and those traders actually cut their gains, not their losses, as they were victimized by the manipulation.
I've seen it with my own eyes. I learned lessons in the earliest days, and then finally learned how to profit from the swings. It's nuts. I posted about it. It's very real. I am not even sure I want to ever go back in the stock market. I probably will, but I hate it. It's not like it used to be. It's tragically broken. It is sooooo corrupted. As I said, more than that NY Times article discusses. And, I am not hopeful that the market can be fixed.
Thanks for posting the article Len.
TM
There will always be opportunities in this crazy market.
Do you know when aapl reports their earnings--which day--?? Tony
Tag, I hope you still have that 1,000 shares of AAPL !!
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Today I managed to watch a few experts on the financial channels. Well-respected fellows, that have strong and contrasting views on the market.
The general concensus is that this market is still very volatile and dangerous, and that this recent surge could be short-lived, and that the market will have at least another serious downturn, and that the market is already over-bought. However, many expect it to be higher by years end or by next summer.
In addition, there is a lot of talk about the triple dip in the housing crisis.
How can that be good for the economy?
I am not yet convinced that this market is that healthy, just because Europe's problems APPEAR to be less serious at this very moment.
It's still crazy, IMO.
I'm still waiting on the sidelines. I own zero shares of ANY stock, including AAPL.
I might be missing out on one of the biggest opportunities, but I am still not convinced.
TM
I think if you refine your program just a touch, you could head off some destructive swings......Such as not immediately purchase a stock you already purchased at a lower price until you have had a day to reflect on the first purchase.....Now that surely doesn`t mean I have a real insight ...Just a suggestion, that you might be able to work into your thought process....
It is always hard to re-enter the market after a turbulent time , as for some reason the market changes it`s stripes....What I mean is some unit of days the markt has really wild swings, and it is fairly easy to catch some nice point swings, then the next week you would be lucky to make a half point.....
You know-further--until the error was made, you were waxing right along.....It`l just take a bit of time to get your legs under you again.... don`t push it....ease back into your stride Tony
Tony - 5PM next Tuesday the 18th. Google is this Thursday at 4:30.
Tony, the earnings report will be released after the market closes on October 18.
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Just look at some things with perspective. Everyone is cheering that AAPL went up so much? Really? Prior ot that, it got HAMMERED!! And, it's still LESS than where it was weeks ago BEFORE the iPhone 4s was introduced.
The financials were beaten to a pulp, and now they have regained some of the losses, and everyone is cheering?
The European situation and the dollar's value is largely what has been behind the recent losses and gains. The market lost a ton, and has recently regained only SOME of that loss. Certainly it's nice to have purchased some stocks at their lows, but most folks didn't, and are still trying to come back to even... which is a LOT higher than where the market is now.
The market has a looooooong way to go before it is a bull market again. This current activity is another in a series of dramatic market swings. It always feels better when the swing is up, but will it last?
This could easily be a bear market rally.
The same challenges to the economy are still there. Nothing has changed enough to suddenly think we are in a bull market. We are not in a bull market. Be patient. Watch the housing crisis, unemployment and the deficit situation. Keep your eye on China and Europe. If all those factors start to improve, then we might begin to think we are truly going up.
On the brighter side, it's possible that the market is starting to remove the US "recession" factor out of the equation, and if some of the other "issues" I mentioned are improved, then I think the market could legitimately go significantly higher. Otherwise we are simply moving to the higher side of a trading range.
On a long-term basis, only buy the big dips and hold on for the ride... cause this roller coaster has still got a ways to go.
TM
The thing about Apple is that there are legions of people like me, who have had a good experience with their products, and would not consider changing, or go back to the products we came from.....I don`t see how a person could go wrong with them, but no matter what I always sell a stock that drops---at a certain point.....Tony
Hope you're doing good.
Yeah, it seems crazy to get in the market at this moment... at least in any big way. I do concede there is a chance of missing a very big comeback, but it just seems too irratic to buy into it... especially at this point.
There is always money to be made in the stock market when it is healthy... and I would not classify this as a healthy market.
TM
Well, it's not totally like that, although there's little doubt that I am not tuned in to the market as well as I was, since I have not been watching it nearly as closely as I had been, and have been totally out of the market.
You might remember, I almost jumped back in. So, it's not like I haven't seen some of the opportunities. It's no secret that I bought 1,000 shares of AAPL when it hit around $351. I posted about it. I was about to buy an additional 1,000 shares when my wife came in my home office and nearly caught me. I had just previously informed her about that "little $100K screw-up", and she asked me to layoff for a while, just to take a breather, and I had agreed. So, when those AAPL shares took that dive, my instincts kicked in, and I knew I wanted to buy a couple thousand shares. At $351/share, I wanted 'em bad... really bad.
But, as she came in the office and I saw that "look" in her eyes, I realized I had already taken that fateful first step of breaking my word to her and branding myself a liar... so instead of hitting the "buy" button for another 1,000 shares, I hit the "sell" button, and I no longer owned any shares at all. I redeemed myself (but only for the most part, because I took that first step).
So, my whole story just keeps getting worse, depending on how you look at it. Afterall, consider that I initially screwed up the $100K, then I made a promise to my wife I probably shouldn't have ever made, and then I started to break that same promise, and then I missed a 1,000 point market rally... Damn.
I don't know what's going on, but I think God may be teaching me something at this point about my priorities. I think it's entirely realisitic to say that I had gotten too obsessed with the market... the way I was trading every minute of every day, including pre-market and after-market hours... and constantly in front of the computer, trading like a freaking maniac... probably looking a lot like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain.
Lesson learned?
But, all that aside, this market is a loooong ways from its highs. Heck, I remember our lofty exhuberant predictions. Were we drunk? I do still believe that it wouldn't take much for this sick, broken market to decline 500 - 1,000 points just as quickly as it gained them. Frankly, I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but if it should, and there is another opportunity from a big dip, I would likely jump back into the market... but my investing and trading would be more balanced. I don't intend to spend every freaking waking moment day-trading the stock market again.
That is, not unless I go broke and need the money that badly. And, if that desperate situation were to happen, I guess I could honestly say that my many months of boot-camp day-trading experience taught me how to sacrifice life and make money (or lose it, if you're not careful) in the stock market by day-trading.
The title of my new book?... LOL... "How to sacrifice life and make a fortune (or lose it, if you're not careful) in the stock market by day-trading".
Anyway, opportunities WILL come again. They always do. It's only a matter of time. And, glad to hear the Qlikview business is going well! You're a very intelligent fellow, and I am confident your LFA funds will be just fine in the long run.
TM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/technology/personaltech/iphone-4s-conceals-she- - er-magic-pogue.html?_r=1&ref=business
Then of course you have to put up with the NY Times liberal stupidity and this editorial just makes me sick. Whoever wrote this is living in fantasyland.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/opinion/justifying-the-killing-of-an-american.- - html?ref=opinion