Yes this is a poor opinion, one that has no consideration for what America stands for, and the necessity to protect the country......If anyone were to go around killing, they would find themselves on death row.....Apple is a good one.....I hope I can follow through with what I plan...Tony
You've got to fear not being in Apple right now with reviews like this and earnings due out in less than a week. The stock probably soars to 450 next week.
Len,
Worse than losing the $100K is the fact that I abandoned owning 2,000 shares at $351/share. It's made me sicker than anything in my entire trading history. I felt I had to do it at the time, given the circumstances, but it is indeed making me sick to think about it.
Not only would I have made back the entire loss, but I could potentially have made another $50K - $100K on top of it.
Some analysts today announced that AAPL is too risky to own north of $400 at this time. Gotta wonder what they are talking about.
Anyway, I am up the creek without a paddle, and can only wait for a major market pullback at this time. It could be stupid to invest in anything at this moment.
It astounds me that an analyst would look at price rather than the multiple the company is trading at and its growth. Apple is as far removed from Netflix as it gets and the company is undervalued vs it's earnings and growth plus the fact that it is the darling of the US and it seems the media.
I haven't kept track of the exact number but the Dow is now up about 1200 points in a week or so. Strong earnings reports could propel it back to 12,000-12,200. Again I haven't heard a lot on the warning front. Earnings always brings us back to fundamentals but the problem is we d'ont stay there.
According to the newly released 2011 Land Report 100, which ranks the top land barons, John Malone is now America’s biggest individual landowner. The 70-year-old cable pioneer and chairman of Liberty Media now owns 2.2 million acres, after purchasing more than 1 million acres of timberland in Maine and New Hampshire earlier this year.
The purchase, which drew fire from plenty of environmentalists in New England, vaulted him past the longtime number one, Mr. Turner, who owns slightly more than 2 million acres. Mr. Malone and Mr. Turner are longtime friends and fellow cowboy-hat wearers from the cable world.
Mr. Malone started snapping up land in the 1990s, buying in Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. He bought the 290,100-acre Bell Ranch in 2010 and uses it to raise cattle and horses. Mr. Malone said his main interest is land conservation and maintaining the sustainable forestry programs with the New England parcel.
Mr. Malone told the Land Report that his love of land is due to his Irish genes. “A certain land hunger comes from being denied property ownership for so many generations.”
Now is the time to buy land, he said, because of low borrowing costs and low prices. He added that real estate “is a pretty decent hedge on the devaluation of currency.”
Apparently Mr. Turner isn’t upset at losing the number one spot. In fact, Mr. Malone said Mr. Turner “first gave me this land-buying disease” on a helicopter ride on Mr. Turner’s ranch.
Unless you can write-off the land under some kind of environmental scheme. I would think property taxes would eat up much of your hedge against inflation. I think the property tax could be a write-off as well. Never owned enough land to think of more than reselling at a profit. It would be nice to have a few hundred thousand acres to just get away from the maddening crowd.
I was at airports all day yesterday trying to get back home from Boston. It sucked with many delays. Got back late last night.
Man, I want this phone more than ever after reading this article. Conversing with this phone is better than conversing with a real person. The "expert" analysts made it sound like this phone sucked when it was introduced last week. They are the ones that stink. How confident are you about the $450 level after the earnings report? I am torn on what to do with the extra shares I bought at $405 about 10 days ago.
I agree with your comments about the second article as well. It is stupid.
If given the chance to redo it, would you buy those AAPL shares now at that price?
As I posted very recently, I still think we are in a trading range. If you want those shares long-term, you know you will be ok. If you are looking short-term, you can sell them and still make a few bucks, and wait for the next pullback.
No guarantees in this market. It's still broken, IMO.
Thanks TM! I am of the opinion that AAPL will go above $500 longer term. However, I hate to go through the suffering again if it sells off to $360 first. So, I am torn on what to do. I think they will post great earnings numbers once again, so perhaps I should wait until the report before I sell anything. Not sure.
Google now pushing back toward $600 after another blow out earnings report. Apple probably going to report sky high earnings early next week. That'll propel the stock quite possibly to $450. Rimms problems may help the iPhone even more with corporate America. The issue for me is do we hold on fundamentals of great earnings by these companies or do we again go into a malaise like we did after July earnings data. In the 4th quarter I think we stay more in rally mode and go back toward 12,300-500
I find it hard to hold a security, and trade around it.For some reason when I buy for the trade, it messes me up as then I have too much money exposed.Then when I sell, I want to sell the whole position....Difficult....I have had good results buying aapl just before the earnings, if the stock isn't too close to it's high....Hope to do that shortly....I haven't had that result with goog...It is a tricky stock.....Tony
Google now pushing back toward $600 after another blow out earnings report. Apple probably going to report sky high earnings early next week. That'll propel the stock quite possibly to $450.
I would think that AAPL will have just as much (if not more) of a blowout earnings report as did Google today. So, $450 should be doable. I see that in afterhours trading, AAPL is up more than $4.00 probably in sympathy with GOOG.
I remember the disappointment I experiencing with how AAPL was trading after that July report. I'm hoping/thinking that history will not repeat itself this time. AAPL has SO much going for it. Additionally, the RIM problems can only help AAPL.
As it stands right now, I am holding on to all my shares through the report. If the earnings report is awesome and it goes up to near $450, I will sell the shares I bought over 10 days ago.
Please do not attempt to short-term trade AAPL. The market is still too volatile and has PROVEN itself capable of taking down nearly ANY stock without regard to fundamentals.
And, the same market is capable of elevating a stock too much in a single day. Wild swings in ANY direction as we continue to see nearly every day, are NOT evidence of a healthy market.
IMO, AAPL is best invested successfully long-term at this point.
You always have some choices here...
1. - try to take advantage of those swings by day-trading (and assume the risk). 2. - invest for the long-term and ignore the massive swings. 3. - stay out of the market until it shows clear evidence of being healthy again.
Of course, you can do a combination of 1 and 2, but whatever you do, be comfortable with it, or don't do it.
Personally, I am still out of this market. It was clearly difficult to stay out last week, but now at this point the risk is MUCH higher to go in at these levels.
Do you have any doubt that the market could over-react to nearly anything negative that might happen in Europe or China or right here in the USA? What about our political and economic mess that is still hanging over us? And isn't the US deficit issue coming to the front burner again in just a matter of weeks?
Am I being too bearish? Or is the market still fragile, and some folks have already lost sight of that in only about a week of positive trading?
That is sage advice.......Apple is such an enigma.....I just think it is marching to it`s own `drummer`.....If a person want`s to take a gamble, apple is the one to do it with, as in time you would get bailed out, at least in my opinion.....I just have a hard rule, if I gamble and loose I take the loss, and when I feel like gambling again I do it.....I`l probably do just as I said next week, just like I said I would, but might hang just a tad longer...It all just a` feeling`......If I wake up and dont like something about the day, I`l pass..I do think you put your finger on something a while ago when you said `there are other stocks out there`..Apple can really throw you off your stride so easily...
Sage advice
On another note, I think that the worse is about over with, and I think the seasonal factors are going to start to show themselves in a more positive way....No question the problems are still out there, but in my opinion , I think they were overblown, therefore a bit of optimism is in order....Tony
Or it means that they can't forecast and will be airfreighting in hot product througout the month of December.
I am already seeing lots of toys at WM and Costco. So maybe they have stuff left over from last year or stocked up early. I don't think the hot items are going to be affected as much. Airfreight is justified for iPads and iPods.
That could be the other factor. The article was strictly based on Shipping and rail. As much fresh food that we get airfreight that may be taking up a lot of the slack. The goods can be delivered right to the market. Especially high priced computers, electronics etc.
It is, for a few anyway. Good article, this pretty much sums up the climate of today:
"Simply put, capital is beating the living daylights out of labor. Personal income fell in August from July. Corporate profits bounced back impressively since 2009, but between June 2009 and June 2011, real household median income fell 6.7 percent. Workers' share of income has fallen to historic lows."
Yeah, that's sustainable. When will the breaking point be reached?
I have had the same feeling as well. The bottom line is that consumers have been spending a lot more than the "experts" have lead us to believe. I have always stated that the average Joe Blow will spend what he/she has. The big sell-off in gasoline prices have helped to make this spending in other areas possible.
It appears I have lost twice and am now squeezed out of any big opportunity to succeed in the market.
My 100K screw-up couldn't have come at the worst possible time. It caused me to need to catch my breath and sit back long enough to miss the best opportunity to regain those losses.
I am stuck now in no-man's land. Buying stocks now after the recent gains is a total gamble. I missed my chance, pure and simple. Double whammied.
I do not see any good opportunities at this time, unless the market takes another big dive... which seems unlikely, in spite of a few "experts" who think that will happen. I think it is more likely the market is near the highs for a while.
Do any of you expect a lot more upside? Enough that I should buy now even after such a huge run up?
Tag---We drove back form the mountains, and they are packed with people who want to see the fall colors....Here in Charleston, the tourists clog the streets, so something must be going right for most people......You and I read the same news, and I find it misleading, either up or down, consequently question yourself as I do....I think every `trader` wants the big instant hit, and the investor does also....The big hit comes along once in a while, and if you can hit it a third of the time you are considered `magnificent`
You put your finger on it, when you insinuate the market changes when you take a break......I share your opinion, and only suggest you build back up to the larger trades over a period of time, then when you fall, you have to start over the same way.....It works....
I never have been able to grasp goog, or amzn, but have had fair weather with ibm and appl......ibm is a good one to ease back in with, as it give you a bit of time....Appl is smoking right now due to the earnings.....Sometimes I just take a smallish position with appl to play the earnings, and when I feel good about it I gamble larger....Sometime I get caught, like when I wanted to INVEST in it the other day......IMO either invest or trade---not both---
You said last summer you thought the time to be in the market was November, and we are getting near.....Remember your loss does not represent what you do all the time, so it shouldn`t happen again.....Just some suggestions, and Christmas and Thanksgiving are coming, so usually the media falls into line---advertising works , and the media is greedy Tony ps I think a correction of short duration is in the cards after earnings are assimilated
The big hit comes along once in a while, and if you can hit it a third of the time you are considered `magnificent`
I would be tickled with a 33% win ratio. I have only two big wins in 13 years of messing with the stock market. Ford at $1.76 and MCD at $14. Still have half the F stock sold half when it hit $18. Still have all the MCDs. Don't want to pay capital gains and it pays a dividend. I have several longshot stocks that are now worthless paper. Well they were a Write-off. I just don't have the patience to sit and sell at just the right moment. I buy and don't look for a few weeks. See how the stock is doing. Rarely sell anything.
After having a good last week I am up substantially for the year, and seem to be well positioned for now. In my case it is mostly pure luck that I have been able to grab a crumb here and there with this very unpredictable market.
AAPL is looking good for next week...assuming the expected great earnings are not already built into the price.
Reports on local news here is the new iPhone is in superhot demand and very hard to get. Imagine if they had gone to iPhone 5. Analysts now say it will outsell every previous launch and yesterday in NYC at least all stores were sold out by mid afternoon.
Charlie, if you try their meats let me know your thoughts.
Len,
I was just in the process of ordering the great burgers from Allen's until I saw the shipping cost of at least $30 I believe. Ok, so I then decided that I was going to order some lamb rib chops so I could get free shipping. But with type of order the cost was up near $300. So, I said crap, do I want to spend this much money for a meat order (I'm sure it's out of this world good)? So, I made a deal with myself. If AAPL trades to at least $450 after the earnings report Tuesday, I am going to place the order.
Analysts now say it will outsell every previous launch and yesterday in NYC at least all stores were sold out by mid afternoon.
Incredible demand for a phone that the so called "experts" said they were disappointed when it was unveiled. They know squat. I was driving around the city yesterday after the market closed and I was listening to CNBC. They had a couple of dudes on trying to talk their position (shorting AAPL) by spewing things like "something does not seem right with this stock at this time. It is overbought", etc., etc. They suck just like all those doom and gloom jerks suck!!
As you stated, the economy is in a lot better shape than these morons would lead us to believe.
I know this isn't the answer you're looking for, but in my opinion no one knows what the market will do in the next few days or weeks. In fact, I would be wary of anyone who presumes to know what the market will do in the short term.
If you spend $129 you get free shipping Charlie. Their porterhouse steaks and filet mignon on the bone are incredible. As good as anything you'll get in the top steakhouses, made right at home. Treat yourself to 1 or 2. The Wagyu burgers are incredible. They are so juicy medium rare that you need a bib. Here's the coupon.
There is definitely one guy that shows up on CNBC rather frequently that I believe is definitely a voice of reason. His name is Steve Liesman. He is an economist I believe. I can't stand some of those female (I'm not a chauvinist) talking heads they have on the programs. They know nothing and the only reason they are there is due to their good looks. But the worst staff member of all is Rick Scentelli. He acts like a child that does not get his candy. Cramer is so-so.
Yeah, I've seen him. Do you know if Steve Liesman have a blog or link on the CNBC website where he indicates his perspectives and/or predictions for the market?
Rick Scentelli is stuck in the bond pits and has a tantrum now and then. I feel sorry for him.
Cramer is often either too vague or too matter-of-fact (on purpose, I think). He flip-flops soooo much to cover his [non-permissible content removed]. When he knows something that is a definite certainty, it seems like he makes it a big deal to make himself appear smarter than he is.
I always hear lots of "buy, buy, buy" of his favorite stocks, but he almost NEVER tells anyone when to sell them before it's too late. Caterpillar is one of the best examples, of many. He was promoting it like crazy, then the floor dropped out. It's now starting to work it's way back, but has a loooong way to go. I think Chipotle was another of many. It's a typical problem with him.
And now that tech is doing well, Cramer has been acting like he advised everyone to buy tech at the right time. The truth is that he told everyone to "stay AWAY" from all tech (except for AAPL and AMZN... and those stocks nearly fell off a cliff at one point, as you know, and AMZN is the one that burned me), but then the genuine tech rally came sooner than he said it would, and now he is claiming that he called it correctly. Wow. that's sure a bunch of Cramer BS.
I don't know if Steve Liesman has a blog or not. All I know is that he stays cool, calm, and collected under trying circumstances at times. He never overreacts to extremes in the market action.
What's your opinion of the market right now? Good time to go in? Gotten ahead of itself and better to wait?
I'm sure that the short term market action will be driven by what happens in Europe next week. Things there have started to look more encouraging and I have a feeling that this trend will continue.
Meanwhile, I expect generally good earnings reports in the next week or two by major companies here in the U.S. If you place a gun on my head, I would say that the market is going higher from here, but it is obviously a lot more difficult call now than it was a week or so ago. WE have had a big rally, so just a bit of bad news can result in the Dow dropping 200-400 points just like that. But again, I don't think this will happen since I expect more stabilization in Europe and good earnings here. I think the Dow will reach at least 12,500 in November if not sooner.
As far as AAPL is concerned, I fully expect another blow-out number after the close on Tuesday. Len had mentioned the $450 level after this report and I have been in total agreement with this prediction. AAPL will trade way above $500 in 2012. This company has SO much in its favor in spite of what those two "morons" were saying on CNBC after the close on Friday.
Of course, I could be full of crap with my market forecast so you need to use your own judgement. IF you do buy AAPL now, you need to hold on to it for the long term. That means you could take some punishment along the way. But, eventually, this stock is going to soar a lot higher. I am happy that I stayed the course with AAPL over the past couple weeks when it plummeted all the way down to $350. IF indeed there is a blow-out earnings report Tuesday, I will probably sell the shares I bought at $405 in late September I believe. If it then does sell off back toward the $420-430 level, I will buy more. That's my plan anyway. We'll see what happens in reality.
I think what we all have to realize is there is no real precedent for a company like Apple with any of today's traders. We've never had a company with such a large market cap in a non commodity sector with growth and earnings like this. Commodities are cyclical so a company like Exxon is in a different league. Traders and the idiots and smart people on CNBC d'ont know how to handle Apple because of its uniqueness. You get a group that looks at it as such a high market cap and is afraid to touch it because of that market cap. Put those guys who Tag noted that are fearful to touch it over $400 in that category. But guys like that are not looking at the multiple and that stuns me. If you are looking at fundamentals than Apples share price and market cap are a function of earnings and that multiple is low for such high growth. Plus Apple is a company that can't sub-divide and can't be taken over so you lose some premium on both of those counts. But you have other folks that can see the stock reaching $1,000 if earnings growth keeps shooting up. I know one thing - with no experience in trading a company that is as rare as Apple you can't buy anything anyone says. So all my thoughts on the company are based on its multiple and growth expectation. In the end no one can resist fundamentals and as we get near earnings every quarter the true value of the company comes into light. It's in the in-between when the malaise hits that you need to accumulate the stock. Same with Google.
Let me ask you a question - you haven't lost all the knowledge you've gained over the many years of trading stocks, correct? You still know what metrics to look for, identify the trends and act accordingly.
Nothing in that respect has changed .. you were burned not because of your knowledge but because of a silly clerical error. It hurt, but it's time to move on. What's done is done and cannot be changed.
Now, it's time to get back in the game. Just like a QB who makes a dumb decision and throws a pick-6, he gets off the bench the next time his team has the ball and tries to do his level best to win.
I'll bet that when you bought your stocks this morning you were very, very careful about the number of shares you entered into your software.
I'm feeling a lot better than I was. But, I'm going to be very careful. I'll increase my exposure to the market carefully over time, and buy on signficant dips.
In fact, I'm taking a revised approach to how I am going to invest in the market. Not to say that I'm going to change my trading strategy, because that will stay the same. But, I now see that long-term investing makes more sense than I had previously thought.
So, I want to buy some of my stocks as a 5 - 10 year investment. There is no way that I can keep those in a Scottrade account. It's way too easy to touch them. So, I'm going to split up my portfolio and give some of it to a broker to control. That way, I will have my Scottrade trading funds, and I will also have some long-term investments that I know I can give to my kids one day.
I can see that I have already cursed the market and it is down on the very day that I am back.
It's that stinking Europe balogna again that is dragging the market down today. If this keeps up 12,500 prediction for the Dow by sometime in November will look stupid.
I expected the dip today. Futures indicated it. One of the reasons I finally bought back in.
Re: AAPL I now have 150 shares at $419.52. A bit pricey, IMO, but I am looking to buy more if it dips enough, and that will reduce the cost average. Otherwise, it's good enough for now. And, I am keeping the 150 AAPL shares, and will continue to massage.
I bought some energy stocks on a huge dip today, like HAL down over 7%, and SLB down over 4%.
Bought some IBM, but it's doing lousy. Only bought 100 shares of it.
Anyway, I'm working on all of it, but honestly it doesn't feel nearly as good as it used to.
I was just sitting here encouraged that Tag is making an effort...:) Good for him....Eleven years ago I purchased ko at fifty eight, and now see it is at say sixty eight.....Man what a crummy investment....In fact the entire stock market has really been a poor place to store wealth.......Now there are exceptions, but a person needs to keep in mind the ball is always bouncing.......I would dear say there won`t be any of the stocks that have done well over the last five years that will make it to the list five years hence.....Mark MY words....Tony
gambling on ibm.......if wrong , not as much money to loose.....IBM has treated me well in the past, but I really don`t understand how it generates the money vs in years past......The deed is done......Not a big bet dollar wise... but to be wrong no matter what --hurts Tony
The only reason I picked today to tip-toe back into the market was because the futures were down, and I realized that the market might FINALLY offer some opportunities. Some of my picks may turn out to be very good, and others could be less so. It's too early to know. And, fortunately I don't own much of any of them.
As you know, I bought a little IBM in pre-market and wasn't in it too deep, and then sold some of it during a slight peak during the day when I realized that it was headed south. I kept only 50 shares, just in case it turns around, but I have my doubts. Not enough to make a huge dent, but it goes to show that this market is crazy and dangerous.
I even sold some of those AAPL shares when they turned a small profit, because I think the ENTIRE market is headed south. I will definitely buy those AAPL shares back soon however, because there's just no way I'm going to ever let myself be without AAPL shares again for too long.
And, I will probably continue to buy AAPL shares on significant dips from now on. I learned my lesson when I bought those 1,000 shares at $351, and then sold them right back.
I have posted that this market is broken, and just because I am willing to dibble-dabble in it again, doesn't mean that I have changed my mind. This stock market is definitely broken. Anyone buying into is taking a huge risk and needs to know what their objectives are.
The only way to make money in this current market is to know how to day-trade, or to pick excellent long-term stocks.
I bought HAL and SLB today near their lows because HAL was down almost 8%. It's the only way I am interested in this market, other than AAPL and AMZN, and even those stocks are riskier than a lot of people realize.
Moving forward, I'm going to keep some of my account with Scottrade so I can take advantage of opportunities now and then... but the rest is going to go through a broker, in fixed securities, a few quality funds, and low-risk investments.
The stock market is broken and has been taken over. Great companies with fabulous fundamentals should still be good long-term investments, but the overall risk to the market is massive. AAPL is a great example of how a terric company can be a good long-term investment, but even AAPL doesn't perform as it should. If it did, it would already be a $500 - $700 stock... easily.
Comments
Len,
Worse than losing the $100K is the fact that I abandoned owning 2,000 shares at $351/share. It's made me sicker than anything in my entire trading history. I felt I had to do it at the time, given the circumstances, but it is indeed making me sick to think about it.
Not only would I have made back the entire loss, but I could potentially have made another $50K - $100K on top of it.
Some analysts today announced that AAPL is too risky to own north of $400 at this time. Gotta wonder what they are talking about.
Anyway, I am up the creek without a paddle, and can only wait for a major market pullback at this time. It could be stupid to invest in anything at this moment.
TM
It astounds me that an analyst would look at price rather than the multiple the company is trading at and its growth. Apple is as far removed from Netflix as it gets and the company is undervalued vs it's earnings and growth plus the fact that it is the darling of the US and it seems the media.
I haven't kept track of the exact number but the Dow is now up about 1200 points in a week or so. Strong earnings reports could propel it back to 12,000-12,200. Again I haven't heard a lot on the warning front. Earnings always brings us back to fundamentals but the problem is we d'ont stay there.
Ted Turner has lost his crown.
According to the newly released 2011 Land Report 100, which ranks the top land barons, John Malone is now America’s biggest individual landowner. The 70-year-old cable pioneer and chairman of Liberty Media now owns 2.2 million acres, after purchasing more than 1 million acres of timberland in Maine and New Hampshire earlier this year.
The purchase, which drew fire from plenty of environmentalists in New England, vaulted him past the longtime number one, Mr. Turner, who owns slightly more than 2 million acres. Mr. Malone and Mr. Turner are longtime friends and fellow cowboy-hat wearers from the cable world.
Mr. Malone started snapping up land in the 1990s, buying in Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. He bought the 290,100-acre Bell Ranch in 2010 and uses it to raise cattle and horses. Mr. Malone said his main interest is land conservation and maintaining the sustainable forestry programs with the New England parcel.
Mr. Malone told the Land Report that his love of land is due to his Irish genes. “A certain land hunger comes from being denied property ownership for so many generations.”
Now is the time to buy land, he said, because of low borrowing costs and low prices. He added that real estate “is a pretty decent hedge on the devaluation of currency.”
Apparently Mr. Turner isn’t upset at losing the number one spot. In fact, Mr. Malone said Mr. Turner “first gave me this land-buying disease” on a helicopter ride on Mr. Turner’s ranch.
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2011/10/12/john-malone-now-biggest-landowner-in-the-- u-s/
Unless you can write-off the land under some kind of environmental scheme. I would think property taxes would eat up much of your hedge against inflation. I think the property tax could be a write-off as well. Never owned enough land to think of more than reselling at a profit. It would be nice to have a few hundred thousand acres to just get away from the maddening crowd.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/business/at-us-ports-flow-of-imports-suggests-- soft-holiday-shopping-season.html?_r=4&adxnnl=1&ref=Mish
At Ports, a Sobering Omen for Holiday Sales
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204774604576626882482074762.html
Man, I want this phone more than ever after reading this article. Conversing with this phone is better than conversing with a real person. The "expert" analysts made it sound like this phone sucked when it was introduced last week. They are the ones that stink. How confident are you about the $450 level after the earnings report? I am torn on what to do with the extra shares I bought at $405 about 10 days ago.
I agree with your comments about the second article as well. It is stupid.
If given the chance to redo it, would you buy those AAPL shares now at that price?
As I posted very recently, I still think we are in a trading range. If you want those shares long-term, you know you will be ok. If you are looking short-term, you can sell them and still make a few bucks, and wait for the next pullback.
No guarantees in this market. It's still broken, IMO.
TM
Or it means that they can't forecast and will be airfreighting in hot product througout the month of December.
It it could be the doom and gloom that you seem to like to point out.
Google now pushing back toward $600 after another blow out earnings report. Apple probably going to report sky high earnings early next week. That'll propel the stock quite possibly to $450. Rimms problems may help the iPhone even more with corporate America. The issue for me is do we hold on fundamentals of great earnings by these companies or do we again go into a malaise like we did after July earnings data. In the 4th quarter I think we stay more in rally mode and go back toward 12,300-500
I find it hard to hold a security, and trade around it.For some reason when I buy for the trade, it messes me up as then I have too much money exposed.Then when I sell, I want to sell the whole position....Difficult....I have had good results buying aapl just before the earnings, if the stock isn't too close to it's high....Hope to do that shortly....I haven't had that result with goog...It is a tricky stock.....Tony
I would think that AAPL will have just as much (if not more) of a blowout earnings report as did Google today. So, $450 should be doable. I see that in afterhours trading, AAPL is up more than $4.00 probably in sympathy with GOOG.
I remember the disappointment I experiencing with how AAPL was trading after that July report. I'm hoping/thinking that history will not repeat itself this time. AAPL has SO much going for it. Additionally, the RIM problems can only help AAPL.
As it stands right now, I am holding on to all my shares through the report. If the earnings report is awesome and it goes up to near $450, I will sell the shares I bought over 10 days ago.
Please do not attempt to short-term trade AAPL. The market is still too volatile and has PROVEN itself capable of taking down nearly ANY stock without regard to fundamentals.
And, the same market is capable of elevating a stock too much in a single day. Wild swings in ANY direction as we continue to see nearly every day, are NOT evidence of a healthy market.
IMO, AAPL is best invested successfully long-term at this point.
You always have some choices here...
1. - try to take advantage of those swings by day-trading (and assume the risk).
2. - invest for the long-term and ignore the massive swings.
3. - stay out of the market until it shows clear evidence of being healthy again.
Of course, you can do a combination of 1 and 2, but whatever you do, be comfortable with it, or don't do it.
Personally, I am still out of this market. It was clearly difficult to stay out last week, but now at this point the risk is MUCH higher to go in at these levels.
Do you have any doubt that the market could over-react to nearly anything negative that might happen in Europe or China or right here in the USA? What about our political and economic mess that is still hanging over us? And isn't the US deficit issue coming to the front burner again in just a matter of weeks?
Am I being too bearish? Or is the market still fragile, and some folks have already lost sight of that in only about a week of positive trading?
Hard to know, isn't it?
TM
Sage advice
On another note, I think that the worse is about over with, and I think the seasonal factors are going to start to show themselves in a more positive way....No question the problems are still out there, but in my opinion , I think they were overblown, therefore a bit of optimism is in order....Tony
I am already seeing lots of toys at WM and Costco. So maybe they have stuff left over from last year or stocked up early. I don't think the hot items are going to be affected as much. Airfreight is justified for iPads and iPods.
That could be the other factor. The article was strictly based on Shipping and rail. As much fresh food that we get airfreight that may be taking up a lot of the slack. The goods can be delivered right to the market. Especially high priced computers, electronics etc.
REUTERS — 6:11 AM ET 10/14/11
the world's largest toy company, reported higher-than-expected quarterly sales, helped by higher revenue in its domestic and international markets.
The maker of Barbie dolls said third-quarter net sales rose 9 percent to $2.0 billion.
AAPL is up $10 in early trading. Several other stocks I watch are up. Looks like a good start for a Friday.
I wouldn't be surprised if aapl breaks through soon to ~$450.
(So far I'm liking the OS 5 on my iPhone 4.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/why-economy-looks-expansion-feels-re- cession-152916110.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
"Simply put, capital is beating the living daylights out of labor. Personal income fell in August from July. Corporate profits bounced back impressively since 2009, but between June 2009 and June 2011, real household median income fell 6.7 percent. Workers' share of income has fallen to historic lows."
Yeah, that's sustainable. When will the breaking point be reached?
My 100K screw-up couldn't have come at the worst possible time. It caused me to need to catch my breath and sit back long enough to miss the best opportunity to regain those losses.
I am stuck now in no-man's land. Buying stocks now after the recent gains is a total gamble. I missed my chance, pure and simple. Double whammied.
I do not see any good opportunities at this time, unless the market takes another big dive... which seems unlikely, in spite of a few "experts" who think that will happen. I think it is more likely the market is near the highs for a while.
Do any of you expect a lot more upside? Enough that I should buy now even after such a huge run up?
This really stinks.
TM
You put your finger on it, when you insinuate the market changes when you take a break......I share your opinion, and only suggest you build back up to the larger trades over a period of time, then when you fall, you have to start over the same way.....It works....
I never have been able to grasp goog, or amzn, but have had fair weather with ibm and appl......ibm is a good one to ease back in with, as it give you a bit of time....Appl is smoking right now due to the earnings.....Sometimes I just take a smallish position with appl to play the earnings, and when I feel good about it I gamble larger....Sometime I get caught, like when I wanted to INVEST in it the other day......IMO either invest or trade---not both---
You said last summer you thought the time to be in the market was November, and we are getting near.....Remember your loss does not represent what you do all the time, so it shouldn`t happen again.....Just some suggestions, and Christmas and Thanksgiving are coming, so usually the media falls into line---advertising works , and the media is greedy
I would be tickled with a 33% win ratio. I have only two big wins in 13 years of messing with the stock market. Ford at $1.76 and MCD at $14. Still have half the F stock sold half when it hit $18. Still have all the MCDs. Don't want to pay capital gains and it pays a dividend. I have several longshot stocks that are now worthless paper. Well they were a Write-off. I just don't have the patience to sit and sell at just the right moment. I buy and don't look for a few weeks. See how the stock is doing. Rarely sell anything.
AAPL is looking good for next week...assuming the expected great earnings are not already built into the price.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Len,
I was just in the process of ordering the great burgers from Allen's until I saw the shipping cost of at least $30 I believe. Ok, so I then decided that I was going to order some lamb rib chops so I could get free shipping. But with type of order the cost was up near $300. So, I said crap, do I want to spend this much money for a meat order (I'm sure it's out of this world good)? So, I made a deal with myself. If AAPL trades to at least $450 after the earnings report Tuesday, I am going to place the order.
Incredible demand for a phone that the so called "experts" said they were disappointed when it was unveiled. They know squat. I was driving around the city yesterday after the market closed and I was listening to CNBC. They had a couple of dudes on trying to talk their position (shorting AAPL) by spewing things like "something does not seem right with this stock at this time. It is overbought", etc., etc. They suck just like all those doom and gloom jerks suck!!
As you stated, the economy is in a lot better shape than these morons would lead us to believe.
It will break all records for a cell phone.
Who can you really trust on CNBC? Or elsewhere?
TM
http://www.allenbrothers.com/free-shipping?gclid=CO3vlpPW7asCFQXe4Aodo16sKg
There is definitely one guy that shows up on CNBC rather frequently that I believe is definitely a voice of reason. His name is Steve Liesman. He is an economist I believe. I can't stand some of those female (I'm not a chauvinist) talking heads they have on the programs. They know nothing and the only reason they are there is due to their good looks. But the worst staff member of all is Rick Scentelli. He acts like a child that does not get his candy. Cramer is so-so.
Rick Scentelli is stuck in the bond pits and has a tantrum now and then. I feel sorry for him.
Cramer is often either too vague or too matter-of-fact (on purpose, I think). He flip-flops soooo much to cover his [non-permissible content removed]. When he knows something that is a definite certainty, it seems like he makes it a big deal to make himself appear smarter than he is.
I always hear lots of "buy, buy, buy" of his favorite stocks, but he almost NEVER tells anyone when to sell them before it's too late. Caterpillar is one of the best examples, of many. He was promoting it like crazy, then the floor dropped out. It's now starting to work it's way back, but has a loooong way to go. I think Chipotle was another of many. It's a typical problem with him.
And now that tech is doing well, Cramer has been acting like he advised everyone to buy tech at the right time. The truth is that he told everyone to "stay AWAY" from all tech (except for AAPL and AMZN... and those stocks nearly fell off a cliff at one point, as you know, and AMZN is the one that burned me), but then the genuine tech rally came sooner than he said it would, and now he is claiming that he called it correctly. Wow. that's sure a bunch of Cramer BS.
TM
TM
I'm sure that the short term market action will be driven by what happens in Europe next week. Things there have started to look more encouraging and I have a feeling that this trend will continue.
Meanwhile, I expect generally good earnings reports in the next week or two by major companies here in the U.S. If you place a gun on my head, I would say that the market is going higher from here, but it is obviously a lot more difficult call now than it was a week or so ago. WE have had a big rally, so just a bit of bad news can result in the Dow dropping 200-400 points just like that. But again, I don't think this will happen since I expect more stabilization in Europe and good earnings here. I think the Dow will reach at least 12,500 in November if not sooner.
As far as AAPL is concerned, I fully expect another blow-out number after the close on Tuesday. Len had mentioned the $450 level after this report and I have been in total agreement with this prediction. AAPL will trade way above $500 in 2012. This company has SO much in its favor in spite of what those two "morons" were saying on CNBC after the close on Friday.
Of course, I could be full of crap with my market forecast so you need to use your own judgement. IF you do buy AAPL now, you need to hold on to it for the long term. That means you could take some punishment along the way. But, eventually, this stock is going to soar a lot higher. I am happy that I stayed the course with AAPL over the past couple weeks when it plummeted all the way down to $350. IF indeed there is a blow-out earnings report Tuesday, I will probably sell the shares I bought at $405 in late September I believe. If it then does sell off back toward the $420-430 level, I will buy more. That's my plan anyway. We'll see what happens in reality.
200 Shares of AAPL, and 12 other stocks for a "lucky 13" portfolio. Total value $185K as a first step.
I can see that I have already cursed the market and it is down on the very day that I am back.
God, I hope I'm doing the right thing.
TM
FWIW, I'll give you a vote of confidence.
Let me ask you a question - you haven't lost all the knowledge you've gained over the many years of trading stocks, correct? You still know what metrics to look for, identify the trends and act accordingly.
Nothing in that respect has changed .. you were burned not because of your knowledge but because of a silly clerical error. It hurt, but it's time to move on. What's done is done and cannot be changed.
Now, it's time to get back in the game. Just like a QB who makes a dumb decision and throws a pick-6, he gets off the bench the next time his team has the ball and tries to do his level best to win.
I'll bet that when you bought your stocks this morning you were very, very careful about the number of shares you entered into your software.
I'm feeling a lot better than I was. But, I'm going to be very careful. I'll increase my exposure to the market carefully over time, and buy on signficant dips.
In fact, I'm taking a revised approach to how I am going to invest in the market. Not to say that I'm going to change my trading strategy, because that will stay the same. But, I now see that long-term investing makes more sense than I had previously thought.
So, I want to buy some of my stocks as a 5 - 10 year investment. There is no way that I can keep those in a Scottrade account. It's way too easy to touch them. So, I'm going to split up my portfolio and give some of it to a broker to control. That way, I will have my Scottrade trading funds, and I will also have some long-term investments that I know I can give to my kids one day.
TM
It's that stinking Europe balogna again that is dragging the market down today. If this keeps up 12,500 prediction for the Dow by sometime in November will look stupid.
Stick with AAPL!!!!
Re: AAPL I now have 150 shares at $419.52. A bit pricey, IMO, but I am looking to buy more if it dips enough, and that will reduce the cost average. Otherwise, it's good enough for now. And, I am keeping the 150 AAPL shares, and will continue to massage.
I bought some energy stocks on a huge dip today, like HAL down over 7%, and SLB down over 4%.
Bought some IBM, but it's doing lousy. Only bought 100 shares of it.
Anyway, I'm working on all of it, but honestly it doesn't feel nearly as good as it used to.
TM
The only reason I picked today to tip-toe back into the market was because the futures were down, and I realized that the market might FINALLY offer some opportunities. Some of my picks may turn out to be very good, and others could be less so. It's too early to know. And, fortunately I don't own much of any of them.
As you know, I bought a little IBM in pre-market and wasn't in it too deep, and then sold some of it during a slight peak during the day when I realized that it was headed south. I kept only 50 shares, just in case it turns around, but I have my doubts. Not enough to make a huge dent, but it goes to show that this market is crazy and dangerous.
I even sold some of those AAPL shares when they turned a small profit, because I think the ENTIRE market is headed south. I will definitely buy those AAPL shares back soon however, because there's just no way I'm going to ever let myself be without AAPL shares again for too long.
And, I will probably continue to buy AAPL shares on significant dips from now on. I learned my lesson when I bought those 1,000 shares at $351, and then sold them right back.
I have posted that this market is broken, and just because I am willing to dibble-dabble in it again, doesn't mean that I have changed my mind. This stock market is definitely broken. Anyone buying into is taking a huge risk and needs to know what their objectives are.
The only way to make money in this current market is to know how to day-trade, or to pick excellent long-term stocks.
I bought HAL and SLB today near their lows because HAL was down almost 8%. It's the only way I am interested in this market, other than AAPL and AMZN, and even those stocks are riskier than a lot of people realize.
Moving forward, I'm going to keep some of my account with Scottrade so I can take advantage of opportunities now and then... but the rest is going to go through a broker, in fixed securities, a few quality funds, and low-risk investments.
The stock market is broken and has been taken over. Great companies with fabulous fundamentals should still be good long-term investments, but the overall risk to the market is massive. AAPL is a great example of how a terric company can be a good long-term investment, but even AAPL doesn't perform as it should. If it did, it would already be a $500 - $700 stock... easily.
TM