The Stock Market and Investing

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  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 267,074
    It's that stinking Europe balogna again

    Mmmmm.. balogna..

    Does the European kind taste better? :blush:

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  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    I think he means baloney. :)

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I think he means baloney.

    Balogna, baloney, spaghetti, macaroni, skata, what's the difference :) ? Actually, the Greek word skata would have been more appropriate to use with the European mess.

    In all seriousness, I have always thought that "balogna" was pronounced like "baloney". How dumb of me! They did not teach me the difference when I immigrated to this country :D .
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    You can see how much I trust it :).....I think your keeping the majority of your funds with a broker will do you well...Charlie and I do that, as it is sort of a `break`...You have to pick the phone up, dial, and then go through a secretary most times.....Sometimes you forget what you are calling about :)...A good check.....The sad thing is we are still dealing with stocks bonds, etc.....They all get whipped sawed around, but I don`t know any other things.....I still think tangibles, like real estate, is a good thing, even though many disagree.....Goood luck to you Tony
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    Don't pay me any mind...just being a wiseguy !

    Where did you emigrate from, and when?

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Interestingly, on CNBC this morning, they had a guy named Daniel Ernst on. His company has raised the target price for AAPL to $700. About a year ago, they raised the target to $500 and everyone was laughing at them and thought they were nuts.

    You are absolutely right though when you say the market in general is broken. It is SO different and SO much more difficult to trade than it was just 3-4 years ago.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Where did you emigrate from, and when?

    My mother and I (as a child of 10) escaped from then communist (ruthless dictatorship) Albania, stayed in Greece for a year while the naturalization papers were being prepared, and flew to Boston in the 1950's. I am a full fledged Greek, but we were stuck inside Albania as the border between Albania and Greece closed about the time I was born.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Charlie, I don't mean to pry but that all sounds damned serious. What about your Father? Holy smokes.

    You sure turned out good, having gone through such trauma.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited October 2011
    Charlie, I don't mean to pry but that all sounds damned serious. What about your Father? Holy smokes.

    It's complicated and I have to say that my life story is VERY unusual and I bet you will not be bored reading this. I have some hesitation about revealing all this to you folks but I guess it can't hurt. Here is the gist of it:

    My Dad and uncle were just released by the Germans from concentration camp at the end of the War. I was a baby. While my Dad, uncle, sister, and grandmother were all in a Greek city near the Albanian border, my Dad told my Mom to take the baby (me) and go to our home in far southern Albania (that portion use to be Greek territory) to help out his mother who was quite sick, while he waits for some money to arrive from his uncle in the States and he and the rest of the family would join us as soon as the money arrived. As soon as my Mom and I crossed the border, the border between Greece and Albania closed. My father tried to get back in but they threatened to shoot him.

    My Dad, sister, etc., ended up in the U.S. (Portland, ME as we had relatives there). My Dad went to work at a paper mill factory in CA while my sister stayed with my grandmother. They eventually moved to Brockton, MA. Meanwhile, my Dad was trying for years to get us out of Albania. He contacted 2 guides in Greece that knew every nook and cranny at the border and inside Albania. He paid them $5,000. One morning (I was now 10 years old) my Mom informed me that we were "going to try to escape tonight" (all in Greek of course). That stunned me and I had to keep this a secret from my friends. IF this had been about 6 months later, I would have refused to go along since I was getting brain washed into the communist system in school. Each morning at school, we would stomp down our feet and proclaim, "DOWN WITH THE AMERICANS AND LONG LIVE RUSSIA".

    Well after dark that fateful day, we met at a designated spot and the escape started. It took us 3 nights through rugged mountainous terrain. We were hiding in the woods during the day. There were about 7 other people that were escaping with us. One girl who was about a year older than me refused to go along with her mom since she was definitely brain washed by this time. We had a few close calls, but on the 3rd night (probably around 3:00 AM), the guide said complete silence now. About an hour later he informed us that we were now safe. I remember the very first thing we all did is lick the dew from tree leaves since we had run out of water. We walked to the nearest Greek town and the Greek Army processed us. My Mom and I (as I stated on the previous post) were in Greece staying with friends of my Dad for a year. After we escaped my Dad moved back to Brockton and started a business with my Uncle. It was a bar/pizza place. On September 2, 1955 my Mom and I landed at Logan Airport. That was the first time I had seen my father, sister, etc. Btw, this is the same sister who is now terribly sick with Cancer. We are devastated about this to say the least.

    EDIT: Until we made it to that first Greek town, I had never seen an automobile, electric light, etc. Albania was the most isolated country in the world until it was finally liberated (last communist country to be liberated) in the early 1990's I believe. It was worse than a so called Third World Country. We had nothing. After, I lived in Greece for a few months, I realized what a horrible government was controlling Albania. I tried to forget anything that had to do with Albania (including the language). We were taught in Greek at school, but they were starting to convert to all Albanian. The first 6 months in the States, it was tough since I knew zero English, but I was young enough and I pickled it up rather quickly. I speak with no accent other than a bit of Bostonian accent people tell me. But I think they are wrong :) . "I don't paaak the caaa in Haaavaad yaaad."
  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 267,074
    Wow!

    I guess I've got nothing to complain about... :surprise:

    Great story!

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  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Charlie,

    You most certainly earned your freedom and you have a very brave family.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,477
    Fascinating story and history few ever learn, that could be made into a movie. Thanks for sharing.
  • cdnpinheadcdnpinhead Member Posts: 5,618
    edited October 2011
    . . .my life story is VERY unusual and I bet you will not be bored. . .

    You absolutely have that correct.

    While there's a lot of crap on the internet, your story is why I still enjoy participating.

    Thanks. :D
    '08 Acura TSX, '17 Subaru Forester
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That is a great story. I have several Iraqi friends now. They have some great stories of getting out from under Saddam Hussein. I love to hear them all. Thank you for sharing.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    Charlie, Charlie, Charlie...

    I had a feeling I was asking a personal question, and am nearly speechless after your reply. That is an amazing story!... and I think you have really been generous to share all of that.

    I wish I could buy you a bottle of champagne, and toast to you.

    Here's to you...

    And... I am so sad about your sister. Your post touched my heart and I got no problem with that.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I remember posting that offering only one size of an iPad was limited, given that the computers, notebooks, and even iPods offered selections of screen sizes.

    Well, seems Apple has seen the light.

    A smaller ipad will be offered sometime next year. It will feature a 7.85" screen. Much more convenient, IMO, and will blow away all the other competitors with their smaller form factor.

    I will buy it, unless it doesn't have the features of its big brother.

    TM
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    A smaller ipad will be offered sometime next year.

    Do you have a source on that?
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Rather than clutter up the board with a bunch of "thank you's" to each one of you folks, I will just say it right here. I sincerely appreciate all your good thoughts and wishes regarding my life story.

    To think of where I came from and where I am now is certainly mind boggling. Just think for a moment what would have happened if any Albanian guard had spotted us during the escape (especially the last hour or so near the border that was rather heavily guarded). There would be no Charlie here telling you this story. We would have all been shot dead. Our communist neighbors in our town were beyond furious that we got out. We heard through friends/distant relatives that they were spreading all sorts of horrible lies and rumors about us after we escaped.

    Yes, I would like to go back for a visit one of these days (now that the country is liberated), but I have been very reluctant to do so because I still fear that there may be some survivors that will still take out their anger on me because of that escape so many years ago.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That is sad. I would think they would look to your family as heros escaping the Communist regime. Albania sounds like a good place to visit before it gets overly commercialized. A friend vacationed in Croatia and she loved it. She is 70 and traveled there alone and felt very safe. I think it would be enjoyable to go and just be a tourist.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Do you have a source on that?

    Yes.

    The internet is loaded with this info. Just Google it.

    Here's one of many...

    link title

    TM
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    edited October 2011
    Yes.

    The internet is loaded with this info. Just Google it.


    Just because you read it on the internet doesn't mean it's true. If it were, I guess Steve Jobs is having Elvis and Michael Jackson testing it out. :)

    So it's just a rumor not an actual product. Don't get ahead of yourself - 2 weeks ago the iPhone 5 was a definite...
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    One reason the economy may be doing better than the media tells us is right here:

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/banks-start-to-make-more-loans/?ref=busin- ess
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    One reason the economy may be doing better than the media tells us is right here:

    This sounds quite encouraging Len. I have a feeling the increase in the number of loans by banks will continue in the future.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    Just because you read it on the internet doesn't mean it's true. If it were, I guess Steve Jobs is having Elvis and Michael Jackson testing it out.

    Gee, thanks for straightening me out. :P

    Currently, there is enough information in total that strongly suggests that this is much more than a rumor. Some of the info is more specific, and some is barely a rumor. Engadget had a post this morning that stated it to be a fact, and that's when I finally posted it here. They are a very reliable website and mobile app, and if you additionally look through all the data on the internet, as well as consider the wisdom of such a product, it really stacks up with credibility. I suppose that Engadget might have jumped the gun, but I can't be responsible for that, if they did so.

    Of course, we can always say that nothing is a fact until the very last moment, and even then it is sometimes uncertain. Heck, I remember when CBS announced that Al Gore was our next president of the United States, and then they retracted it and said that Bush was the winner... creating an historic fiasco that put the legitimacy of Florida's electoral process in question.

    So, from a purely scientific emperical perspective, there is no reality to the existence of a smaller iPad... but there is mounting evidence that such a device seems very lilkely.

    And, the iPhone 5 WILL come. The reason Apple waited was that they recognized that they would not be able to re-tool and meet the demand. By using much of the same existing hardware and updating some of the core components and software, including the addition if Siri voice recognition, Apple is better able to meet the demand and buy themselves more time to get the iPhone 5 ready for an even larger launch in the future. It was a smart decision, IMO.

    Back to the mini iPad, I think it is an absolute competitive necessity, so we will see what actually happens next year.

    TM
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,686
    Thanks for telling your story. That is absolutely amazing. You and your mother were so lucky.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    I'm just being a bit of a jerk. The world was taken aback on the iPhone 4S announcement last week. IIRC Engadget published photos of iPhone 5 labels and accessories that turned out to be false. We all know how secretive Apple is so until they announce it, it's vaporware. Although a mini iPad seems like a no brainer, Apple has already said they think the form factor of the current iPad is perfect. They aren't the kind to go downmarket chasing low margins.

    As for why they came out with the 4S - IMHO it follows their model thus far. Original iPhone begat iPhone 3 begat iPhone 3GS and all had the same form factor. Could we be in for another iterarion of iPhone 4?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Back to the mini iPad, I think it is an absolute competitive necessity, so we will see what actually happens next year.

    I think a lot will depend on the Kindle Fire. I pre-ordered one just to get on the list. If I don't like it I can send it back with no cost to me. If it will do what I want for $200 it will be worth it.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Charlie----That is a magnificent story of courage and determination....If anyone ever deserves anything, you deserve your success.....The human spirit is what we all have to count on.....and not even being able to communicate amazing...

    I hope the Apple story pans out this afternoon, and I am going to buy a small trade....I couldn`t do worse than on the ibm.....Last quarter I caught both of them right.....Tony
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tony,

    Thank you!! I have already expressed my feelings about you in the past. You are a caring and just plain wonderful human being.

    As far as AAPL is concerned, if by some chance it rallies a lot into the close, I may sell the shares I bought at $405 a couple weeks ago. If not, I will hold all of my shares and hope for a great earnings report.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    You and your mother were so lucky.

    That is actually an understatement. It was a miracle. It was one of two miracles that I was blessed with in my life. The other one happened back in the winter of 1969. I was within 4 hours of being shipped out to Oakland and Vietnam from Fort Jackson, SC. Meanwhile, a couple months earlier, my father had suffered a stroke due to heavy smoking and worrying about me I'm sure. My mother could not really speak English. After, my father's stroke, I applied for a compassionate re-assignment in the States. It was turned down. However, the then congressman in MA tried to get me a hardship discharge so that I could support my parents. Lo and behold, that was approved and I was released on April 1, 1969. Half of my company was killed within 2 weeks of being on the front lines in Vietnam. I obviously consider that a miracle as well. Even if I had survived Vietnam, I would not have been the same person.

    I taught Earth Science for a year and the following year I enrolled in Grad School at Iowa State University and I earned a Master's in Meteorology. I met a fantastic lady there from St. Louis (she is rooting hard for the Cardinals now) and we got married a few years later. We are still in IA.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    edited October 2011
    Thank you for sharing that wonderful story.

    Apparently we are about the same age. While you were escaping through the forest, I was running around barefoot in the backwoods of Arkansas ! I think that is about when we first got electricity.

    America. Great country or what !!!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    America. Great country or what !!!

    The best the world has ever seen.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Darn! From the sounds of things a lot of people were holding off buying the iPhone4 and waiting to buy the iPhone 4S. Therefore, the iPhone sales were disappointing on the Earnings report. Everything else was fine. The expectations were so high that AAPL will plummeting on the after hours trading. I tried to sell some shares at $435.89 before the market closed and I missed. I sold nothing. I had an order on the after hours trading to sell at $437.89 hoping for a bullish report. Oh well, I'm sure it will do great in the next quarter.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Well another miss for me also....I don`t think I`l sell though, but if it keeps going down, will load up the truck :)...Just do what I don`t allow myself to do, so that is dreaming for me......Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    Wow! I sold all my shares at around $423 just moments before the market closed.

    I would have been so pissed, if I had lost thousands of dollars within 48 hours of getting back in the market.

    I am glad I sold those shares and every other share of every other stock at today's highs.

    Is the aftermarket share price a good buy? Or does it go lower?

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Good job! As I said above, I got a little greedy and tried to get a higher price. If I had sold, I would be doing the same thing you did and buy on the collapse. I hope this decision today does not bite me on the [non-permissible content removed].

    Btw, I am allowed to trade in the after and pre market hours on E-Trade. For some reason, I did not think I could do that as of several weeks ago.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,351
    edited October 2011
    Overall a good day, but AAPL did clip my wings somewhat after hours. I won't sell yet as I am in at around $374., so I still have some cushion. Still, I was looking for better results...didn't happen.

    I should have listened to myself and sold like you did. I kept wondering why AAPL didn't move up more today in anticipation of good results. Now I know why.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 267,074
    Well... if your wife is a Cardinals fan, I take it all back.... ;)

    Reds forever!

    Cardinals.... meh..

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  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    We may have been hit yesterday, but you are still `the man`.....Inspiring story.....Tony
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Miracles happen to great people. God Bless your family and everyone/loved ones on this board.

    We are all connected.

    Regards,
    OW

    P.S. Apple up ~ 24% YTD....IBM up ~21% YTD.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited October 2011
    Wow! Thank your OW. Your kind words mean a lot to me.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tony,

    I think "yesterday" will have been forgotten the next few weeks. I have tremendous faith in AAPL and we will be just fine with that stock.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    I think "yesterday" will have been forgotten the next few weeks.

    Disagree.

    The share price will be stuck in a trading range until there is either one of two things...

    1. Some significant new financial data, which could be next quarter's earnings report, or significant sales data prior to the next earnings report.

    2. an exciting new major product announcement.

    If one of those things happens, AAPL shares will break out of their trading range. If the next news or product is positive, the share price will leap ahead, but if any of it is negative again, the share price will nose-dive next time.

    I would NOT currently be a big buyer of AAPL shares unless the price fell to a compelling level or a positive development occurs, as I indicated above.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Yes you are correct IF your numbers 1 or 2 do not take place. Our disagreement however stems from my strong belief that number 1 will be positive. I fully expect that there will be strong signals/data that suggests sales of the new iPhone this quarter will be huge. This will be revealed in the next few weeks. Who knows about your number 2?
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    I fully expect that there will be strong signals/data that suggests sales of the new iPhone this quarter will be huge. This will be revealed in the next few weeks.

    Many of the 4s purchases are from those that waited. In addition, the phone is another "new" product. So, initial sales will be huge, as they were with the 4. But, in the end, sales of the 4 tapered off too much, and now Apple took a hit.

    Your statement that we'll know about 4s quarterly sales in the next few weeks doesn't work. Like I said, the early indicators for the 4 would have suggested a better quarter, but it didn't happen!... so the next few weeks aren't going to tell us enough.

    I think the decline in sales could be a deeper issue, and we may be witnessing the first slowdown for Apple in quite some time.

    IPod sales are diving, as the iPhone itself cannabalizes the iPod.

    iPhone 4 sales were a little disappointing,as were ipad sales.

    Amazon, and others will have an impact on the ipad sales. Samsung, Motorola, and others will start to compete with the iPhone at dangerous levels.

    The first generation of new UltraBooks comes out soon.

    And, the very latest and nicely evolved version of Android called "Ice Cream Sandwich" is about to be released, and early indications are that it's a really beautiful update to what is now the fastest-selling smartphone OS.

    I think we now have a different playing field, and Apple will have a more difficult challenge ahead.

    TM
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    "...the very latest and nicely evolved version of Android called 'Ice Cream Sandwich' is about to be released, and early indications are that it's a really beautiful update to what is now the fastest-selling smartphone OS."

    Given that search is Google's major business, how do you feel about GOOG (short-term and long-term), compared with AAPL?
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited October 2011
    I am curious to hear Len's thoughts on post earnings report and going forward on AAPL. Len, what is your opinion?

    EDIT: Have you guys heard about a major flood in Thailand that flooded the plants that make hard drives for computer companies? Evidently, this is why the computer stocks stink today. I don't know how much, if any, effect this has on AAPL.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited October 2011
    I really disagree with Tag here. I thought the quarter was great. It's just that a bunch of dummies on Wall street wanted the impossible and of course have now made a bad over-reaction. First of all the iPhone 4 was released at a perfect time for sales and earnings a year ago (June) and this year the new release was delayed to after the quarter (October) - and they still beat sales of a year ago by 21%. So they have a large double digit increase in an apples-oranges comparison of sale release dates that heavily favors a year ago. How anyone can view that as disappointing, especially with the knowledge that October sales are soaring further into outer space than any other quarter is baffling. Next it was the second most profitable quarter in the company's history and had they released the iPhone in the same time period as a year earlier it would have soared to the number 1 spot easily. So this is timing (if you want to be stupid enough to believe this was a disappointing quarter) not demand or a business issue. A 54% jump in earnings (54%!) and a 39% growth in revenues for a company that had an over the top quarter one year ago is a helluva result and the the envy of any large company in the world. Only a bunch of dummies on Wall street can look at that as a disappointment. Plus the company gave great guidance for the next quarter. Also keep in mind that Amazon, with more than 6X the PE that Apple has could only muster 39% growth in revenue thru last December on much lower revenue numbers while its EBITDA would need about 18 years to do what Apple does in a year. Yet the street loves them. Again as i said once before - if Apple was up for sale it would be the best financial take over candidate in the land.

    This offers a great buying opportunity but I d'ont know if it is now or a month from now.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I don't think the Thailand flood is going to be a major issue. I have not heard that those plants are the only global source for hard drives, and Apple, of course, has been using more and more solid-state drives in place of conventional hard drives.

    I think Europe and China and our economy, coupled with a mixed bag of earnings reports is mostly what has been driving the market.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited October 2011
    Len,

    Check this out!! It's a whole new ballgame Len.

    image

    image

    Heck, I'd easily buy this new Motorola Droid RAZR in a heartbeat before buying an iPhone, and so will many others. It's genuinely superior to an iPhone, and it makes the iPhone seem slow and obese by comparison. Here's why...

    “Motorola RAZR is an iconic brand, and one that originally revolutionized the mobile device industry.” said Sanjay Jha, chairman and CEO, Motorola Mobility. “Now we’ve done it again with a head-turning, ultra-thin smartphone that offers users breathtaking speed, innovative apps and revolutionary accessories.”

    The Motorola Razer Droid is just 7.1 mm thick at its thinnest point and is made from Kevlar fiber to keep it strong, making it the world's thinnest LTE smartphone. The specification of the Razer Droid includes a dual core 1.2 GHz processor, 1GB of RAM, 16GB of onboard memory, as well as a 16GB microSD card.

    The device also packs a 4.3-inch Super AMOLED touchscreen running at qHD resolution and features Gorilla Glass, which makies it even more scratch-resistant. It also comes with an 8-megapixels main camera able to record 1080p HD video, and a front-facing HD camera which can be used for video calling.

    The Motorola Razer runs on Android 2.3.5, the latest version of the operating system and, among many others, features HDMI connectivity and Smart Actions, a built-in system that automatically turns of battery-eating functions when it needs a charge.


    That's a beauty! So superior to an iPhone. Only thing the iPhone seems to have that might be an advantage is Siri. Other than that, this phone eats the iPhone for breakfast. But, the bigger point is that this gorgeous phone is only one of a multi-pronged attack. Chip away and chip away with legitimate superiority is indeed going to have an impact.

    Now, let's be clear... I'm not saying Apple is in trouble, and that's not what I have posted. But I am saying that the stellar expectations that were once legitimate are now a pipe dream. AAPL stock is still a decent investment, and it will finally make its way back up, but not at the breakneck speed some were expecting just last week. Things have changed!... and are going to change even more. And until Apple reports something really amazing, I see the share price advancing slowly, but mostly stuck in a trading range, as I posted previously.

    All the data you are referring to is certainly excellent, but it's now history, and is not necessarily a reflection of the future direction. Apple slipped, pure and simple, and they may indeed slip again, whether it's next quarter or the one thereafter... I think it's now a more realistic possibility than it had been in a long, long time. When things change, and they do... it makes sense to me to adjust my perspecitve to coincide with the changes as I see them.

    TM
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