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Comments
I'm still sitting on the sidelines in cash, except for the fixed securities I've had for a very long time, and my little 30 shares of AAPL, which are likely to be stuck in a trading range as I suggested in a post last month. Frankly, I'm not in any rush to buy stocks at this time. I suppose this could be the development of an opportunity, but I am going to wait a while longer before investing, and it might not be in equities.
S&P is now down for the entire year.
TM
With this stock market I may have to use your steak recipe on a tube steak.
Hebrew National of course.
Thanks for the grilling secret. I always love to try new tricks at the grill, and there's nothing like a great steak.
One of my favorite grilling techniques is to slow-cook ribs on the rotisserie instead of on the grates... they really come out moist and tender. I also like to grill vegetables, especially corn on the cob and large portabella mushrooms (marinated).
I will remember to pat dry the steaks next time. Thanks!
TM
Thanks for the info. We'll try that next time.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Regards,
OW
The Chevy Malibu was originally introduced as a "cool" car, and it was aptly named after this "cool" beachfront community, Malibu, California. It was indeed a cool car in its day, and had quite a successful run... they certainly sell well at the auctions, as collectors pay quite a bit for them.
The next-generation (2013) will be nothing exciting, IMO, and will probably be the most fuel-efficient mid-sized model in Chevy's history... but it's hard to predict anything from GM, although the latest generation Camaro seems to be doing quite well. I think the Camaro Convertible is decent eye-candy, and saw a gorgeous one yesterday evening.
TM
The party may be over. The upside wildcards? An amazing new product, which is doubtful... or a brilliant acquisition with all that cash... or a hefty dividend. Downside wildcards? Decreasing sales... and/or increasing competition (likely, IMO)... a poor earnings report will crush the stock.
I would recommend to anyone that owns a lot of shares to scale back at opportunities. Likewise anyone that doesn't own any or many shares to buy a very moderate number of shares at large dips. I just bought 20 shares at $383. I did so, because I intend to sell them back if/when the price rebounds... but share price could easily go lower. Small number of shares, only for fun.
TM
Cash Hoard for Operational Edge
Also, some tricks can be performed only once before the competition gets wise to the trick.
I never forget that we still have Google, Microsoft, and Intel. They can be very capable of inflicting damage to Apple. And, companies like Motorola show that there can be a resurgence. There are MANY companies other than Apple that have brilliant people within. IBM could be an example.
All in all, I think the "uniqueness" of Apple products is starting to become yesterday's news... unless they have new tricks up their sleeves.
TM
Overall a negative discussion. One said that buying for the next few months might be profitable but after those few months there was no good prospect.
Since Cramer wasn't in the group I give their varied points some discussion value.
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Also in the presidential debates last night a question stated that 70% of trading was being done by high speed computers. WOW.
The question was what would the candidate do to control the stock market in light of that kind of manipulation by Wall Street firms as opposed to the little guy like me.
?Comments?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Overall a negative discussion.
Interesting... sounds like we are in agreement quite a bit.
Also in the presidential debates last night a question stated that 70% of trading was being done by high speed computers. WOW.
What is amazing to me is how the media continues to try to explain the market behavior with the usual reasons, and they look to the latest news as what causes the market to move. We read the headlines, and they blame Europe or the deficit or some political fiasco or some anxiety about some economic news or something. They are grasping at straws because the REAL reason for the market gyrations is that the computer algorithms know when to grab everybody's money. Yesterday the market was tanking and the media tried to make sense of it by blaming Italy. Today all of a sudden the market turns direction. Why? Italy? No. The REAL primary reason is that the algorithms indicated that there was money to be made by creating upward momentum, and the media called it a rebound rally. It's a joke. There is diminished genuine reason for the market to move other than one thing.
MOVEMENT MAKES MONEY. Period. As long as you know which side to be on... and the computers know. They create the movement and then profit from it.
If anyone thinks the market is the same as it used to be, they are seriously living in the dark ages and need to come out from under the rock.
TM
You knew GMCR was a "buy" after it was taken to the woodshed.
Good work!
Did you buy? I am not in the market, so I did not of course.
TM
I just took a position a little above forty and sold this morning a little above forty four.....I hoped you would join me as the two of us with our past poor results, could possibly come up a winner...Maybe next time....:) Tony ps just luck this time
That would lead me to think of long term downward pressure on the stock but would also lead to more volatility for those brave enough to stick their toes in the water with a good eye for excessively low dips like anthonyp just caught.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Their main patent does expire in late 2012 but they are trying to come up with the next generation of product.
The bigger issue is the complexity of their accounting that has the SEC opening up a formal investigation.
Just to be clear, any stock that declines fifty or sixty percent in a short amount of time, is deserving of consideration of a relief rally .......I just took a quick gamble --overnight---I was lucky, but sometimes you make your own luck.....:) now what do you think of Apple? That is a mystery stock to me.....I personally think they would be wise to do a 2 for one split, and a dividend, as that is the ultimate purpose of investing.....Tony
There is no doubt that I had a few unlucky sessions with the market, but most noteably the keystroke disaster was the truly significant one. However, overall my trading experience was highly successful with stellar results. I made literally thousands upon thousands of trades and most of them were very successful.
That intense experience of thousands of trades was massively different from yours, which was two casual trades. I only say this because the percentage of overall success that I experienced with the market was quite positive and your overall experience was quite negative. I am sure that if you had spent more time trading more often than just those two trades that you would have had much better results because you have a very good understanding of the market. Two strikes doesn't even strike out a baseball player at bat.
TM
The standard and hybrid engine models probably won't be too exciting, but I expect that the suspension will be improved. A turbo-4 option will become available several months after the '13 models are introduced. I'm guessing that this engine will be a variation on the one currently available in the Buick Regal GS. That should make the Malibu quite exciting, and could warrant the "SS" designation.
As for a Malibu coupe, I haven't read anything about this, but if Chevy truly wants the Malibu to compete with the Accord and Altima, then it should spin a coupe off the the sedan platform. The advantage Chevy would have is heritage.
I have just felt your `pain` and if not encouraged to be dealt with, would de-rail your comeback, so my comments are just a form of encouragement , as many months ago you and I both thought that November would be a good entry point for a year end burst of positive activity...
The tone of your last comments are encouraging , as it sounds like the `old` NEW Tag.....:) Tony
BTW, I'm looking forward to the L.A. Auto show... I haven't missed an annual auto show in decades.
TM
You have a talented way with words, that's a fact. But, I really don't know when I will be interested in the stock market again. I really think it's a different animal... a beast actually. Quite capable of serious volatility and inflicting massive wounds. Beyond my "error", which I am finally emotionally past, I recall the intense amount of focused energy it took to succeed with all those thousands of trades. Even if I had just bought and held the stocks, I don't know if it would have been worth it. The risk is still larger than most people are aware of, IMO.
I'll sure keep you posted however. I'm still thinking about it... and will ultimately come up with a responsible long-term strategy. In the meantime, the cash on the sidelines feels just fine, and I'm in no rush.
TM
IBM up 27% YTD
AAPL up 19% YTD
Regards,
OW
Will that gap get larger or smaller?
TM
No going back now.
Regards,
OW
Buffet, long known for avoiding tech companies, has decided to invest in IBM after coming to the conclusion that IBM isn't a tech company, it's a services company that sells some tech products.
I also have a book recommendation .. Street Freak, a memoir from a trader at Lehman Bros. from 2001 to 2008. Very insightful review of what it was like working for this company during the heights and crashes of that 7 year period. Great read.
Holy Cow, Batman!
Regards,
OW
Not that I have been contributing much lately, but where has Len been? Len, please say something positive about AAPL
The median analyst price target for the stock is $200, with 14 of 28 analysts rating it a "strong buy" or "buy" and the rest rating it a "hold," according to Thomson Reuters data.
Though it seems like a contrarian move, one long-time Berkshire investor speculated that Buffett was buying IBM for its services business rather than its technology platform.
"It's going to be one of the four or five 'generals' in the portfolio," said Steve Check, chief investment officer of Check Capital Management, a California firm.
Another long-standing Berkshire shareholder said the investment was also a global play.
"More confirm(ation) that he sees international as more important," said Michael Yoshikami, chief executive of wealth manager YCMNET Advisers, which manages about $1 billion and holds Berkshire shares.
The investment fits with Buffett's desire to make big bets. Earlier this year, in his annual letter to investors, he joked about having a loaded elephant gun ready to make big deals.
He has followed through on that, buying chemicals company Lubrizol, investing $5 billion in Bank of America Corp and taking the IBM position.
Though Berkshire started buying IBM shares in March, Buffett's comments suggested the firm did not cross reporting thresholds on the investment until the third quarter, which let him keep the stake secret until Monday.
Buffett has also previously asked for, and received, the right to keep some investments temporarily confidential on the grounds that, given his notoriety, if his trades were to be known, masses of investors might try to pile in as well.
The IBM stake was so confidential, in fact, that the company had no idea Buffett was investing in it until he disclosed that he had bought 64 million shares on TV on Monday. An IBM spokesman declined to comment.
According to Thomson Reuters data, Buffett's 5.5 percent position in IBM would tie him with State Street Corpinvestment management affiliate State Street Global Advisors for the largest stake in the company.
During the third quarter, IBM shares traded in a range of $157.14 to $185.61, suggesting that no matter when Buffett bought, he is still up on his investment at least $160 million.
Regards,
OW
I'm not the least bit worried about Apple as a company or high growth machine but I remain worried that the stock is heavily manipulated. It makes no sense that IBM share price would grow more than Apple's when it's P&L growth is a fraction of Apple's. That's the manipulation I get concerned about.
Meanwhile, here's an interesting high tech story on Google from todays NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/14/technology/at-google-x-a-top-secret-lab-dreami- - ng-up-the-future.html?ref=business
So, are you also staying with it for the long haul as I want to do?
That article is fascinating. Is the future now?
Apple is a tech company. Only about 8% of IBM's revenue is from hardware. It's mostly a software/service company. That makes a big difference to investors.
Apple's share price will be fine over time. We have had this same discussion many times before... questioning why Apple's share price seems lower than it seems to deserve, and compared to other stocks. But every time the share price finally rallies.
The world needs to see the company do well without Steve Jobs. It's never happened... yet.
I bought a little more AAPL today @ $379. Every time it dips enough, I buy just a little bit more.
TM
And, from my perspective, I don't complain so much about AAPL's share price because I'd much prefer owning it being underpriced than owning an overpriced high-flyer that's ultimately destined to go off a cliff, like Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,
TM
I wonder if some good news on AAPL came out this morning that only a few are privileged to see at first. Or, the nice move up could simply be technical in nature.
IMO, it's simply a rebound because the share price may have fallen too much too fast the prior sessions.
TM
Regards,
OW
Here you go Tony:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/technology/businesses-too-have-eyes-for-ipads-- and-iphones.html?_r=1