The Stock Market and Investing

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  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    No kidding... Hard on everyone that's in the market... Except for those shorting the market.

    I'm still sitting on the sidelines in cash, except for the fixed securities I've had for a very long time, and my little 30 shares of AAPL, which are likely to be stuck in a trading range as I suggested in a post last month. Frankly, I'm not in any rush to buy stocks at this time. I suppose this could be the development of an opportunity, but I am going to wait a while longer before investing, and it might not be in equities.

    S&P is now down for the entire year.

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I wish I had a secret to share about the market, but I don`t

    With this stock market I may have to use your steak recipe on a tube steak. :blush:

    Hebrew National of course.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tony,

    Thanks for the grilling secret. I always love to try new tricks at the grill, and there's nothing like a great steak.

    One of my favorite grilling techniques is to slow-cook ribs on the rotisserie instead of on the grates... they really come out moist and tender. I also like to grill vegetables, especially corn on the cob and large portabella mushrooms (marinated).

    I will remember to pat dry the steaks next time. Thanks!

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    The patting `dry` is the secret, no matter the meat....I`v tried it three time now, before I mentioned it to everyone, and in all my years of trying things, this is the best ...Pat it dry dry.....This with the use of Jflix`s steak source should do the trick......I have tried the mail order steaks from different sources, spent alot of money, and although they are good for special occasions, I`m just not that much of a connoseur ...If you can find a person (chef) that uses Sysco, their meat is better than what I can buy , and way cheaper....Cyclone`s `pork chop` sounded great.....Tony
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,691
    >......If you choose to marinate one ...

    Thanks for the info. We'll try that next time.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Thank you very much Dada! It has been a very trying last couple months for the entire family.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    I'd picture this when I think of that small beachfront community...

    image

    Regards,
    OW
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited November 2011
    Chevy needs to come out with a modern day coupe equivalent of that '71 (?) Malibu. Since the Malibu will be on a new platform for '13, '14 would be a good time frame for a new coupe. Yeah, baby!
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Those were good days.

    The Chevy Malibu was originally introduced as a "cool" car, and it was aptly named after this "cool" beachfront community, Malibu, California. It was indeed a cool car in its day, and had quite a successful run... they certainly sell well at the auctions, as collectors pay quite a bit for them.

    The next-generation (2013) will be nothing exciting, IMO, and will probably be the most fuel-efficient mid-sized model in Chevy's history... but it's hard to predict anything from GM, although the latest generation Camaro seems to be doing quite well. I think the Camaro Convertible is decent eye-candy, and saw a gorgeous one yesterday evening.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    This stock is performing exactly as I posted last month... stuck in a range. IMO, the choice is to sell on the next "high" within the range, or be very patient and wait it out for the very long term, which could be quite a while.

    The party may be over. The upside wildcards? An amazing new product, which is doubtful... or a brilliant acquisition with all that cash... or a hefty dividend. Downside wildcards? Decreasing sales... and/or increasing competition (likely, IMO)... a poor earnings report will crush the stock.

    I would recommend to anyone that owns a lot of shares to scale back at opportunities. Likewise anyone that doesn't own any or many shares to buy a very moderate number of shares at large dips. I just bought 20 shares at $383. I did so, because I intend to sell them back if/when the price rebounds... but share price could easily go lower. Small number of shares, only for fun.

    TM
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    edited November 2011
    Here is a recent article of what all the cash Apple holds can be used for:

    Cash Hoard for Operational Edge
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    Reminds me of the earlier years of Wal-Mart flexing it's muscle... but then it reached limits to logistics. And along came Target. However, in this case Apple is upscale & the comparison to Wally World only applies to its significant control over supplies and services.

    Also, some tricks can be performed only once before the competition gets wise to the trick.

    I never forget that we still have Google, Microsoft, and Intel. They can be very capable of inflicting damage to Apple. And, companies like Motorola show that there can be a resurgence. There are MANY companies other than Apple that have brilliant people within. IBM could be an example.

    All in all, I think the "uniqueness" of Apple products is starting to become yesterday's news... unless they have new tricks up their sleeves.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Thanks---an interesting article---For me it points out how apple has gotten to where it is, and also the problems if something were to go wrong....If I were to be getting an iphone, I would get a 4g one vs a 3g, and apple doesn`t do the 4g yet....If they aren`t careful, then the people who finally figure out what the additional speed could mean, won`t get the apple product... therefore the demand for the S phone may lag..There may be fire where there is smoke afterall....Tony
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,691
    A CNBC group had no love for Apple's future stock price. I can't remember all the points they made but essentially one guy said he was short AAPL and others said it had lots of downside since it didn't hold above a certain support level above 400 that he listed. They discussed its competition and the effect that Jobs's presence or absence would have on the stock. They sounded like they didnt' believe the goal for sales of 4S phones and another product.

    Overall a negative discussion. One said that buying for the next few months might be profitable but after those few months there was no good prospect.

    Since Cramer wasn't in the group I give their varied points some discussion value.

    ************************
    ************************

    Also in the presidential debates last night a question stated that 70% of trading was being done by high speed computers. WOW.

    The question was what would the candidate do to control the stock market in light of that kind of manipulation by Wall Street firms as opposed to the little guy like me.

    ?Comments?

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Want to join me in a quick trade with gmcr? small amount like six thousand dollars worth :) Just to see if we are unlucky still----Man you sure had two times bad luck, once when you opened the Scottrade account, and the market took off, right when you were un-prepared, and then the unlucky stroke of the key....As for me I thought I could be lucky twice in a row with aapl, and ibm,,,Clocked on both of them.:( ... Don`t let your talent for market timing be shaken ---it is good---Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    A CNBC group had no love for Apple's future stock price. I can't remember all the points they made but essentially one guy said he was short AAPL and others said it had lots of downside...

    Overall a negative discussion.


    Interesting... sounds like we are in agreement quite a bit.

    Also in the presidential debates last night a question stated that 70% of trading was being done by high speed computers. WOW.

    What is amazing to me is how the media continues to try to explain the market behavior with the usual reasons, and they look to the latest news as what causes the market to move. We read the headlines, and they blame Europe or the deficit or some political fiasco or some anxiety about some economic news or something. They are grasping at straws because the REAL reason for the market gyrations is that the computer algorithms know when to grab everybody's money. Yesterday the market was tanking and the media tried to make sense of it by blaming Italy. Today all of a sudden the market turns direction. Why? Italy? No. The REAL primary reason is that the algorithms indicated that there was money to be made by creating upward momentum, and the media called it a rebound rally. It's a joke. There is diminished genuine reason for the market to move other than one thing.

    MOVEMENT MAKES MONEY. Period. As long as you know which side to be on... and the computers know. They create the movement and then profit from it.

    If anyone thinks the market is the same as it used to be, they are seriously living in the dark ages and need to come out from under the rock.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    gone
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    To all our military and Veterans, Thank you,

    image
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tony,

    You knew GMCR was a "buy" after it was taken to the woodshed.

    Good work!

    Did you buy? I am not in the market, so I did not of course.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Tag ---I absolutely know nothing about gmcr, but any decline like that , at least gives a person an even playing field, as no one else knows anything either......

    I just took a position a little above forty and sold this morning a little above forty four.....I hoped you would join me as the two of us with our past poor results, could possibly come up a winner...Maybe next time....:) Tony ps just luck this time
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,691
    If gmcr is the company making the little cups of coffee grounds for the one cup brewers, there was mention of them along with the Apple discussion the other day. The patent on the cups runs out in the not distant future. And there's competition.

    That would lead me to think of long term downward pressure on the stock but would also lead to more volatility for those brave enough to stick their toes in the water with a good eye for excessively low dips like anthonyp just caught.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    GMCR is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - owners of the Keurig.

    Their main patent does expire in late 2012 but they are trying to come up with the next generation of product.

    The bigger issue is the complexity of their accounting that has the SEC opening up a formal investigation.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Hi and thanks

    Just to be clear, any stock that declines fifty or sixty percent in a short amount of time, is deserving of consideration of a relief rally .......I just took a quick gamble --overnight---I was lucky, but sometimes you make your own luck.....:) now what do you think of Apple? That is a mystery stock to me.....I personally think they would be wise to do a 2 for one split, and a dividend, as that is the ultimate purpose of investing.....Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tony,

    There is no doubt that I had a few unlucky sessions with the market, but most noteably the keystroke disaster was the truly significant one. However, overall my trading experience was highly successful with stellar results. I made literally thousands upon thousands of trades and most of them were very successful.

    That intense experience of thousands of trades was massively different from yours, which was two casual trades. I only say this because the percentage of overall success that I experienced with the market was quite positive and your overall experience was quite negative. I am sure that if you had spent more time trading more often than just those two trades that you would have had much better results because you have a very good understanding of the market. Two strikes doesn't even strike out a baseball player at bat.

    :)

    TM
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    "The next-generation (2013) will be nothing exciting, IMO..."

    The standard and hybrid engine models probably won't be too exciting, but I expect that the suspension will be improved. A turbo-4 option will become available several months after the '13 models are introduced. I'm guessing that this engine will be a variation on the one currently available in the Buick Regal GS. That should make the Malibu quite exciting, and could warrant the "SS" designation.

    As for a Malibu coupe, I haven't read anything about this, but if Chevy truly wants the Malibu to compete with the Accord and Altima, then it should spin a coupe off the the sedan platform. The advantage Chevy would have is heritage.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    I got the impression you were having good success with your overall strategy, and followed your actions as closely as you would describe....The two bits of bad `luck` were as I perceived them as mentioned..The keystroke a bad one.....

    I have just felt your `pain` and if not encouraged to be dealt with, would de-rail your comeback, so my comments are just a form of encouragement , as many months ago you and I both thought that November would be a good entry point for a year end burst of positive activity...

    The tone of your last comments are encouraging , as it sounds like the `old` NEW Tag.....:) Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    I was not aware of those improvements you have mentioned. If they do indeed improve the suspension and follow through with the turbo-4 option, then the performance could be a lot more interesting for a mid-sized box, and could even give the competition a good run for their money. I think your idea for a coupe is a good one. Thanks for the info. Truth is that I used to be on top of every single piece of automitive information I could get my hands on, but over the last few years, I have really slacked off by comparison.

    BTW, I'm looking forward to the L.A. Auto show... I haven't missed an annual auto show in decades. :)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    Tony,

    You have a talented way with words, that's a fact. But, I really don't know when I will be interested in the stock market again. I really think it's a different animal... a beast actually. Quite capable of serious volatility and inflicting massive wounds. Beyond my "error", which I am finally emotionally past, I recall the intense amount of focused energy it took to succeed with all those thousands of trades. Even if I had just bought and held the stocks, I don't know if it would have been worth it. The risk is still larger than most people are aware of, IMO.

    I'll sure keep you posted however. I'm still thinking about it... and will ultimately come up with a responsible long-term strategy. In the meantime, the cash on the sidelines feels just fine, and I'm in no rush.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Update:

    IBM up 27% YTD

    AAPL up 19% YTD

    Regards,
    OW
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    And that says a lot.

    Will that gap get larger or smaller?

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    When compared on a chart for the last 12 months, IBM has the edge in % gain over AAPL. The gap has been wider than current, at one point 12-14% in favor of IBM. If you go back five years, AAPL has trippled vs. IBM.

    No going back now. :cry:

    Regards,
    OW
  • michaellnomichaellno Member Posts: 4,120
    Saw an article where Berkshire-Hathaway has purchased 5% of IBM's outstanding stock at an average price of $170/share.

    Buffet, long known for avoiding tech companies, has decided to invest in IBM after coming to the conclusion that IBM isn't a tech company, it's a services company that sells some tech products.

    I also have a book recommendation .. Street Freak, a memoir from a trader at Lehman Bros. from 2001 to 2008. Very insightful review of what it was like working for this company during the heights and crashes of that 7 year period. Great read.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    That's 59 million shares = $10B!!!

    Holy Cow, Batman!

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I own some IBM but I own a hell of a lot more AAPL. So, I hope the trend reverses and AAPL does better.

    Not that I have been contributing much lately, but where has Len been? Len, please say something positive about AAPL :D . I am sticking with it come hell or high water. Yes, there is now a real competitor (Kindle Fire) to the iPad but come on! Apple will still sell millions of iPads. I bet this next quarter will be huge for AAPL.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Man you have some heavy company in your holding....:) Good for you Tony
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    You bet!

    The median analyst price target for the stock is $200, with 14 of 28 analysts rating it a "strong buy" or "buy" and the rest rating it a "hold," according to Thomson Reuters data.

    Though it seems like a contrarian move, one long-time Berkshire investor speculated that Buffett was buying IBM for its services business rather than its technology platform.

    "It's going to be one of the four or five 'generals' in the portfolio," said Steve Check, chief investment officer of Check Capital Management, a California firm.

    Another long-standing Berkshire shareholder said the investment was also a global play.

    "More confirm(ation) that he sees international as more important," said Michael Yoshikami, chief executive of wealth manager YCMNET Advisers, which manages about $1 billion and holds Berkshire shares.

    The investment fits with Buffett's desire to make big bets. Earlier this year, in his annual letter to investors, he joked about having a loaded elephant gun ready to make big deals.

    He has followed through on that, buying chemicals company Lubrizol, investing $5 billion in Bank of America Corp and taking the IBM position.

    Though Berkshire started buying IBM shares in March, Buffett's comments suggested the firm did not cross reporting thresholds on the investment until the third quarter, which let him keep the stake secret until Monday.

    Buffett has also previously asked for, and received, the right to keep some investments temporarily confidential on the grounds that, given his notoriety, if his trades were to be known, masses of investors might try to pile in as well.

    The IBM stake was so confidential, in fact, that the company had no idea Buffett was investing in it until he disclosed that he had bought 64 million shares on TV on Monday. An IBM spokesman declined to comment.

    According to Thomson Reuters data, Buffett's 5.5 percent position in IBM would tie him with State Street Corpinvestment management affiliate State Street Global Advisors for the largest stake in the company.

    During the third quarter, IBM shares traded in a range of $157.14 to $185.61, suggesting that no matter when Buffett bought, he is still up on his investment at least $160 million.


    Regards,
    OW
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    and as a further bet on my part, I think ibm will be paying out higher dividends in the future.....He (Buffet) disdains paying anything to brk holders, but over the years I have noticed he wants the dividens---that`s cash flow to him---and I think you will be right there with him :) Tony
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited November 2011
    Charlie,

    I'm not the least bit worried about Apple as a company or high growth machine but I remain worried that the stock is heavily manipulated. It makes no sense that IBM share price would grow more than Apple's when it's P&L growth is a fraction of Apple's. That's the manipulation I get concerned about.

    Meanwhile, here's an interesting high tech story on Google from todays NY Times:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/14/technology/at-google-x-a-top-secret-lab-dreami- - ng-up-the-future.html?ref=business
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited November 2011
    I'm not the least bit worried about Apple as a company or high growth machine but I remain worried that the stock is heavily manipulated. It makes no sense that IBM share price would grow more than Apple's when it's P&L growth is a fraction of Apple's. That's the manipulation I get concerned about.

    So, are you also staying with it for the long haul as I want to do?

    That article is fascinating. Is the future now?
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Yes. But remember I'm in at 160 + some shares at 304 and actually only missed the rise in price from 128 to 160 in its meteoric rise. I was in earlier at 85 and 109 before the sale at 128 was triggered when I was on vacation. Apple stores here remain loaded with customers who are buying, not looking.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Len...
    Apple is a tech company. Only about 8% of IBM's revenue is from hardware. It's mostly a software/service company. That makes a big difference to investors.

    Apple's share price will be fine over time. We have had this same discussion many times before... questioning why Apple's share price seems lower than it seems to deserve, and compared to other stocks. But every time the share price finally rallies.

    The world needs to see the company do well without Steve Jobs. It's never happened... yet.

    I bought a little more AAPL today @ $379. Every time it dips enough, I buy just a little bit more.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited November 2011
    Sure - subscription revenue vs one-time-only revenue is more valuable because of its bankability but Apple is a quasi subscription business as well since it's products are knitted together and both renew each other and demand updates of the next gen hardware. iPads will be passed down to family members as new ones are bought plus you have great penetration still happening of the corporate world. Apple's biggest problem is it's large capitalization scares people even though it's undervalued and if you net the cash on hand against that capitalization the company is very seriously undervalued. As I said in the past I'd love to find $250K in a house i just bought at an underpriced $1mln. The problem is our stock market is a chaser not a leader. It chases where it thinks money will go rather than leads by investing in sound companies. It badly overvalues many companies (Netflix, Amazon, IPO's) while badly undervaluing others (Apple) simply because of money guessing. And in these days of large trading by computers once a computer smells money going in a certain direction it's an instant magnet for the others to follow - either in or out. Hence we get bubbles and then rapid losses ala Netflix and Green Mountain whose stiock values fell so far so fast you had to check if they weren't split a few times.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited November 2011
    An excellent post Len...

    And, from my perspective, I don't complain so much about AAPL's share price because I'd much prefer owning it being underpriced than owning an overpriced high-flyer that's ultimately destined to go off a cliff, like Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I echo TM's praise, Len. As usual, you hit the nail on the head.

    I wonder if some good news on AAPL came out this morning that only a few are privileged to see at first. Or, the nice move up could simply be technical in nature.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I wonder if some good news on AAPL came out this morning that only a few are privileged to see at first. Or, the nice move up could simply be technical in nature.

    IMO, it's simply a rebound because the share price may have fallen too much too fast the prior sessions.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Or possibly that aapl is getting more `business` business :)
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    The last company I worked for was switching from Blackberries to IPads as their contracts expired so I think you are correct that they are expanding into the business community. I plan to get a iTouch for my youngest very shortly.... :)

    Regards,
    OW
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Or possibly that aapl is getting more `business` business

    Here you go Tony:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/technology/businesses-too-have-eyes-for-ipads-- and-iphones.html?_r=1
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Interesting and thanks----I would imagine that the corporations get alot of feedback from the employees, and they wonted the ipad etc.....Now all we have to do is figure out the problems that are going on with the way apple trades......Tony
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