The Stock Market and Investing

circlew

Hi Tony,

Thanks for the invite but I can't make it to the meeting. Are you going to attend?

Regards,
OW

anthonyp

I don`t know...If I am here and it is convenient, but there might be a big crowd, and I think it really will be in North Charleston at the colosseum , so I don`t like big crowds The old time meetings were dignified events...I don`t know about this day and time Tony

laurasdada

Greetings, all:

Tag: All the best for you, your wife and family. I know how brutal this must be, affecting every facet of your life. Hopefully, the near future will be much brighter.

Charlie: It really was a team loss. Yes, had Welker hauled that pass in, he would have been on the highlight reel, instead of Manningham. And, more than likely, next year the Pats would be playing for "One for the thumb!" Alas, so many mistakes, so few breaks and a defense that played well, but when it was called upon to do something big/special, well, Manning and Manningham did it, not the Pats D. But, safeties, twelve men on the field, off-sides, dropped (sometimes less than precise) passes and an offense that seemed to dissapear after two Patriot-typical TD drives did them in. It was the Pats game to lose. And they did. Hurts, but not nearly as much as four years ago. Giants played better, got more breaks and didn't turn the ball over (though they tried to!).

So, as winter continues (sans snow, or typically cold weather. A boon to a young boy driving a car with wide, Summer tires!), a young man's fancy turns to Ft. Myers, Florida and the coming of the new Red Sox Nation. At least one eye turns to the green o' the Celtics and the black and gold of the Bruins. But, to this Bawstn spahts fan, the sun revolves around the red, white and blue of the Patriots and Red Sox.

I attended the New England International Auto Show last month. Nice, but no Jag/Land Rover or Porsche. Test drove a Prius V, got a Toyota hat. Got a ride in a Jeep GC on their terrain course, cool and impressive. Pretty nice piece of work, the JGC. The Audi A7 continues to intrigue (lovely interior shared with the A6), the new Lexus GS was on a look-only pedestal, but looked good. And, my Lexus dealer's GS party is 2/16. As noted, Kia and Hyundai are building quite a portfolio. The Scion IQ? Absoultely ridiculous. Yet, I want one. Tried to put it in my little bag of brochures, but just didn't quite fit... And, most importantly, no spokesmodel Dre! But, the Lincoln ladies were quite lovely, but the Chevy Sonic model was the fairest of them all. A Southern Belle. Alas, I had no cans of soup to offer her (I know what just went off in your heads, "No soup for you!").

Cars: Wife still loves her 535xi as does my son. Moreso than my Jag, go figure... Jag is purring along, now that the Audio Control Module and Nav system have both been replaced (under warranty, thank goodness). I feel bad for the RX300, living sans garage, but keeping it washed and waxed keeps it looking good...from a distance. Daughter is about 3 months away from being able to drive it sans parents.

Stocks? The ones I was considering, but, of course, didn't buy are doing fab! I just don't have any cash to invest. But, that's another story, I may need to hire a forensic accountant to figure out where the $ went... :sick: And, to add to the myrth, it's tax time! :lemon:

Happy, healthy, prosperous 2012, gentleman!

cyclone4

Charlie: It really was a team loss. Yes, had Welker hauled that pass in, he would have been on the highlight reel, instead of Manningham. And, more than likely, next year the Pats would be playing for "One for the thumb!" Alas, so many mistakes, so few breaks and a defense that played well, but when it was called upon to do something big/special, well, Manning and Manningham did it, not the Pats D. But, safeties, twelve men on the field, off-sides, dropped (sometimes less than precise) passes and an offense that seemed to dissapear after two Patriot-typical TD drives did them in. It was the Pats game to lose. And they did. Hurts, but not nearly as much as four years ago. Giants played better, got more breaks and didn't turn the ball over (though they tried to!).

laurasdada,

You pointed out all the details about why the Pats lost and why the Giants won. However, to me, it all comes down to that ONE play with 4 minutes left. If Welker catches that pass, the game is history and the Pats win another Super Bowl. It is painful to think about it. Oh well, I am now looking forward to the new Red Sox season. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Bobby Valentine at the helm. Btw, he was my number 1 choice from the start. Like you I don't really care much about the Celtics or the Bruins, though I admit I watched more of the NHL playoffs with the Bruins in it last year than I had ever watched in all the last 40 years combined.

As always, it is great to hear from you. Don't be such a stranger. Please visit hear more often.

cyclone4

The following was a post by Len last week:

Charlie,

I now think Apple will run to $700+ and there could be a huge upward move with no warning or minimal warning. I'll explain when I have a chance. Simply put it's too undervalued given the $100bln cash hoard they have and has to rise a lot.

If you have been paying attention to what AAPL has been doing this week (especially the past couple days), you will realize that Len's comment was prophetic. Indeed this move has been taking place with little or no warning. I have yet to see any concrete explanation from the "know it alls" as to why AAPL is exploding to the upside all of a sudden. This is incredible.

laurasdada

Yes, the Welker drop/Brady misfire was the final nail in the offense's offensive dispaly. But, the D's inability (deja vu all over again) to make one big play at the end was the end.

I've got one degree of seperation from Bobby V: A long, long time ago, I can still remember how the music used to make me cry... oh, sorry. Brain drifted there... A long time ago, Bobby V. was the guest speaker at our Little League banquet back in my native country of Connecticut (loosely translated from native American it means, "Land of 50% of the 1%"). My father has a picture of my brother and I flanking BV, he of the thick head of hair and moustache. Bro and I, too. Hold the moustache. Plus, I've dined many a time in Bobby V's restaruants. So, season tickets should be coming my way. I'm sure he'll remember.

houdini1

Congratulations !! Are you at all tempted to sell all or part of those AAPL shares and buy them back on the next pull back?

cyclone4

Congratulations !! Are you at all tempted to sell all or part of those AAPL shares and buy them back on the next pull back?

Houdini, it is always difficult to know when to pull the trigger either to buy or to sell. Something huge is happening with AAPL right now. Who knows how high it can go. If I were to sell some shares right now, I may have a tough time buying them back. Since I agree with Len that this stock is going to reach more than $700 a share, I am just going to do nothing at this time. I know I will be disappointed if it pulls back to say $450-460, but I am in it for the long haul.

anthonyp

Charlie

As you have shred so much about your life, it makes it particularly nice to see aapl soaring along......I guess I should say welcome to `retirement` I bet it isn`t as smooth a `sail` as you expected ? Bunch of crooks make off with your funds that were supposed to be untouchable, and aapl floundering around so much last year....With some luck , this year is making up for it.....Tony

cyclone4

Thank you much Tony! Yes the past year was very trying for me. Hopefully, my luck is changing for the better. One never knows for sure though about stocks. But AAPL is way undervalued compared to the ever increasing cash hoard.

ljflx

Charlie - from a Giants fan perspective the Welker play may have been meaningless if the Giants had not been called for holding on that critical 3rd and 1 play in the second quarter. Note todays NY Times story I linked below about the on field sound effects of the game. I've DVR'd this on NFL Network but haven't yet seen it. Note comment by Bellichick about not wanting Cruz or Nicks to beat him at the end and force the Giants to throw to Manningham instead. In the end the Pats got beat out of two SB's because of two incredible throws by Eli resulting in two incredible catches by his receivers. Yet I hear some Pat fans want to hang Brady, who in my eyes is among, if not the greatest QB ever. I still give that to Dan Marino but Brady isn't far behind and Montana was deadly accurate but IMO the system made him as he had a lot weaker of an arm. Of course I'll never argue against the great Johnny U either.

But also note the comment by Wilfork in which he tells the officials they blew the holding call on the Giants on 3rd and 1. Never did he look like he was held on that play and Wilfork admits he wasn't. That was a momentum changing play and the Giants likely go up at least 12-3 and probably 16-3 if not for that call. That would have made it a different game so as much as Pat fans can claim the Welker play was crucial, chances are it never comes into play if the Giants aren't called for that hold on 3rd and 1. It would have meant a more desperate follow-up Pat possession that would have been more mistake prone. Even on a game that's well called the zebras had a major effect just with one call. It just shows you that sometimes they call what they don't see. On ESPN the feeling was strong that the officals called a hold because they assumed Wilfork could only be spun around like that if he was held. So a brilliant block was erroneously called a penalty at a crucial moment of the game. It also shows you how one play can change a game. I agree Welker catches that Brady pass and the game is done. At the same time take away that hold and it's a totally different game in favor of the Giants.

Re Brady - his 72 yard in the air pass to Moss that was not caught in SB 42 after he got sacked was one of the best passes I've ever seen and the pass on 4th and 16 from near his goal line in the past game was a play that everyone is forgetting and the Welker pass was just slightly behind him but a catch that Nicks, Cruz or Manningham would have made and that Welker usually makes. So hanging Brady is crazy. I'll come up to New England and personally get him and give the Pats fans any 3 Jets they want.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/10/sports/football/eavesdropping-on-the-super-bow- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - l-sidelines.html?ref=todayspaper

cyclone4

Len,

I am definitely NOT one that wants to hang Brady. Are you kidding me Patriots fans? You are out of your mind. I have been stating for years now that as long as Belichick and Brady are together, the Patriots will at least be contenders for the Super Bowl if not win the Super Bowl. I think Tom Brady, when it is all said and done, will be known as the greatest NFL QB of all time.

As for the rest of your post, I really want to put the Super Bowl out of my misery. However, all your points are valid. Besides, I would much more prefer to talk about AAPL now ;-).

ljflx

Charlie,

Just going by comments about Brady that I read in the Boston media and saw on some New England boards. What Bellichick devised this past Sunday to take away the Giants downfield threats was brilliant. A younger Eli would have still tried to force the ball downfield and would have made several mistakes. But Eli today is very mature and takes what you give him. I never thought the Pats could take out the Giants receivers that effectively, not with that D. The fans that I read are clueless about the abilities of Brady and Bellichick. That town is tougher than NY on its sports stars. In fact NY looks like a picnic compared to the Boston area if your a player of just about any sport. Not sure about basketball though as the Celtics are the Yankees of that sport and the fans seem more sophisticated.

anthonyp

That sure is a big gap between four forty and fifty.......I don`t even have a thought when it will get closed, but I don`t remember when something like that does not get closed.....I would guess aapl probes around searching for the new high, then when the selloff comes that would be a great area to initiate further purchases....Of course stuff like that never seems to happen until everything looks so scary that most people , including myself, are frozen by the `headlights` Tony

ljflx

Don't know how it sells off now Tony, not after that last earnings report. Assume a miss of earnings. It sells off what - 15%? If it does that it's cash to share price will jump to 33% and growing. It was a ridiculous 25% before the share price spike at the last earnings and it's still probably 22% right now. Investors can't treat it like an ordinary stock while it has such a supercharged amount of cash which will build by $30bln per year even if the company had no growth. We have never had a situation where a non dividend paying, high growth company whose cash flow matches and even exceeds its earnings at times is valued at such a low multiple while stock piling such exorbitant amounts of cash. Wall street is now seeing beyond the high cap numbers here and looking at the low multiples while at the same time getting scared of what Apple may do with all that cash, which can only be a large positive for the stock. The problem with the streets valuation is that it was marginally OK (but never really made any sense to me) on lower profit numbers with lesser cash 12-18 months ago but the high growth is insane, the cash is building faster than any company in the US and the earnings are now much higher than 12-18 months ago. So the street has to elevate the price as sellers become scarcer and scarcer. Just think about it - Apple earns more money than Google has as revenue. That is a heck of a situation.

cyclone4

Len,

We should have a little fun contest here. Let everyone guess where he/she thinks the Apple stock will be trading 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year from now. I will start:

i month = $518
3 months = $551
6 months = $628
1 year = $721

There! Take this as the Bible .

anthonyp

As last year unfolded, we were all mystified why it traded the way it did.....I think it will probe for a new high, then come back and close that gap---for some reason---

As you, I have no idea why it is so cheap, but when the tide turns, it seems to decline quickly.....and then flounder around....

For the investor, who can stomach just ignoring the stock I too think it will ascend as long as the products keep coming.....I personally wish they would develop their own internet service, and mobile, to compliment their hardware...I would pay a premium for it.......

I remember at&t purchased the spectrums that would penetrate through houses and metal roofs, just to bury it....Man what a poorly run company, and as a customer it is ridiculous for me to even pay my bills on line....Just think loose many billions on a failed buyout, but not consider a premium service for a mobile phone that would work everywhere..

Apple has a well integrated plan, that lets you share your stuff with your other products.....I`l just have to wait til they develop what I want sure not take a chance on samsung etc... Tony P S My guess is 510 now----440 middle of summer---530 later this fall.......though not a clue really...

ljflx

Since my belief is the market makes a run to over 14,000 this year I have an impossible view of Apple falling while the market rises. By mid year Apple's cash is passing $115bln so if it plays down to $450 it has over 25% of its valuation in cash. The company can buy a substantial part of itself back and still end up with $40-50bln in cash by the end of the year. That cash hoard puts a bottom on any fall the stock can make IMO. If it wasn't building cash so fast then it's a different story. One of my fears is that you'll have a political fallout with Apple hoarding so much cash on its Balance Sheet. That to me is a larger danger than anything in its business environment.

ljflx

Charlie,

Never replied to your Equus post but my wife only wants an AWD car for us. How can they offer all that luxury and not offer AWD when the market has shifted to that as an option? It's a good looking car with a fabulous interior to my eyes though I've never seen it in person.

houdini1

I wonder how much of their revenue last quarter was interest on all that cash?

ljflx

Houdini - None of the interest would be in revenue. All interest earned would go onto interest income, below the EBITDA line. I only value on EBITDA but I deduct cash from market cap or I add debt to market cap of companies in a debt position. So Apple to me should have $100bln deducted from its market cap and then divide into that its EBITDA on a TTM or future basis for its multiple. When you roll that out on either the multiple is very low, especially based on future EBITDA.

Microsoft is borrowing at .50%. Not that they need to borrow with their cash hoard but they just took advantage of very low rates. I would bet Apple could borrow at .25% if it wanted too. So I doubt they are earning more than that on their interest income. Microsoft actually borrowed a while ago to finance a share buyback.

In the case of Apple it's TTM on Op income is $43 bln and it's adjusted market cap (after taking out cash) is $360bln so they are trading at less than 9X operating income. That's absurd. If you assume 20% growth they are barely trading over 7X on FTM (forward 12 months). There is so much room for this stock to rise. BTW their interest income is probably in the other income line below op income. I'd have to go into their 10K to get depreciation but a multiple on EBITDA would of course be even lower than a multiple on op income. The company in the next 12 months will probably produce $55-60bln in cash flow before capex, interest and taxes. Interest in Apple's case will increase that cash flow. The company has to rise to $600bln in market cap on those numbers at a minimum IMO. That's why $700 a share is very possible to me. The stock remains priced way too low.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AAPL

gagrice

I wish I understood all that. I am thinking with a large portion of that $100 bln in banks outside the USA, they could be getting a much better rate of return. If you can borrow at .5% a get 1% on a $100 billion, your interest difference is half a billion a year. I see no good reason for Apple to bring that money back here to be taxed at 30%. As their market spreads across the World, the USA becomes a smaller part. I think I read the iPhone 4s sales were 63% outside the USA. We are not only losing our jobs, we are losing our buying clout on the World stage.

circlew

Equus and Genesis will likely go AWD in 2014. Until then, uncompetitive in the snow regions.

Regards,
OW

kyfdx

That is a nice analysis based on actual numbers...

Thanks!

houdini1

Thanks for clarifying that for me.

My problem with AAPL is the high dollar cost of their stock, whether it is a good value or not. A measley 500 shares will cost you almost $250,000., so you are risking a lot to maybe gain $100,000., even if it does go to $700... and in my experience stocks can go down a lot faster than they can go up.

Yes, I am aware that you can buy 50 shares for $25,000. if you want, but it is a psychological thing for me. I think they would attract more buyers and the stock value would increase more on a percentage basis if there was a 10:1 stock split.

anthonyp

Thanks for the analysis.....It is an awesome company....Some very smart people are looking for the market to correct, and if it were to do so, that might knock aapl back......People get overextended and that is how they raise money....No matter what I think it would snap right back up, but still give everyone a scare....

I think the ceo said the money is in treasuries, so that isn`t producing much of a return......They may buy a wireless company, and then spend the accumulated funds on expansion....As usual that may not set too well with a certain sector of investors, or the return in the form of a dividend...Pure and simple dividend,no buybacks, and the stock would then march on upward....So simple...

I don`t care what the new `world` thinks about buybacks, they haven`t worked in the majority....An investor invests for a return.....Tony

ljflx

I'm different. I think of it as to how much I'm investing. Whether say $20k buys me 100 shares of stock or 20 shares of stock is irrelevant to me. i buy based on whether a valuation is too low and number of shares has nothing to do with that. But I do agree that a high priced stock scares some buyers so I see your point. But there's an advantage to that as it also keeps out share buyers the company prefers to avoid.

BTW - I threw out 55-60 bln just as a 20-25% growth rate. If Apple's growth mimics 2011 then $55-60bln will be light compared to what they report. I've never seen a company like this. Usually anyone with these numbers (by that I mean margins more than real numbers) is a dividend paying monopoly so they can't build cash like Apple does because they distribute a percentage of their profits. But Apple has highly desired products that are competed with by many other manufacturers and the public is willing to pay more for them and a new product gets a rush like Black Friday, albeit at the highest price possible, not a sale. Their cash flow and cash build is enormous. it's now almost impossible to price the stock down. If you do, you go too much in the direction of just valuing its cash. Play that all the way out and you reach a point where Apple just borrows some money and uses the owners cash hoard to take the owner out at a verp cheap price (on a multiple basis). But I think the check and balance on that is that you will get a political reaction, particularly if the President is Obama to a business that say stockpiles $150 or $200bln in cash while people are suffering. That fallout could lead to boycotts and who knows what. That's why I fear that more than anything in its business competitive landscape. So IMO they have to do something to distribute that cash back and the best thing for the stock is a large share buyback. That'll add another dimension to the stock rising. This is why I'd be very careful about jumping out at a high to get back in at say 5% lower. You may well find the stock runs up on you 10-15% in a single day similar to the run it made this week.

anthonyp

If Jobs were still here, there would be no stock buyback....That was one of the nice things about him----He knew that was a `ponzi` move and wouldn`t do it....I think his successor is that way also---we`l see--

I definitely think they need to do something, and if it is the dividend route, it will attract the `investor`..and a higher valuation....

I am so sold on their products, and so are alot of other people, their future is bright...

It`s nice to read your thoughtful posts...Keep it up and now if Tag were to chime in, we would be back to `old times` Tony

ljflx

If Jobs were still here, there would be no stock buyback

Tony, we think alike. I said the same exact thing in an e-mail to Charlie the other day. But they have to distribute that cash somehow or do an acquisition but whoever they buy has to either match their own growth rates and margins or feed into a strategy perfectly.

anthonyp

Hi
When I was a Berkshire owner, and drank the `kool aid` say ten or more years ago, and Mr Buffet described the stock B at that time, it made such good sense to just convert some from a to b and sell the b when you desired income...Pay the long term tax.....Well the stock mover around a bit, then started it`s decline....His philosophy was a little misleading in that he didn`t pay a dividend, but everything he invested in paid one to him so he could continue to buy companied....We shareholders slowly `starved` unless you were with him in the beginning

Mr Buffet purchased the railroad, and told the stockholders ` Isn`t this a wonderful deal, we can loan them huge amounts of money for their maintenance and new rolling stock`...Burlington then paid him a massive dividend , because they did not need to keep funds available as Berkshire would loan them the funds they needed... Here is hoping Apple doesn`t do that....Tony

cyclone4

Len,

I wish that those CNBC idiots had YOU on the program to analyze AAPL. Some of those SOB's really tick me off because they always try to talk nonsense about Apple to drive the price down. Even Mr. Cramer blew it in my opinion. A few short weeks ago he was not so upbeat about AAPL since they now had a new CEO. And that moron, Mellisa Lee was always down playing AAPL every chance she got. Now, all of a sudden they act as if they were always positive about AAPL (it has a low PE, they have great products, etc.). I would not mind it if they would just admit that they were wrong in their assessment from a few weeks ago.

Today they had one guy that has a hold at $450. What an idiot!. God, it would be SO awesome to have you there to argue with these morons.

Did I use the words moron and idiot enough?

EDIT: Holy cow! I can't believe it. No sooner did I post this above than I see two level headed analysts on CNBC talking about AAPL. In fact, I thought I was listening to you (Len) the way one of them was analyzing AAPL. He was saying that they have to do something with the cash hoard and it will be very positive to the stalk. One guy had a price target of $630.

ljflx

Charlie,

Don't nominate me for CNBC. I have a nice private law abiding life and I want to keep it that way. On CNBC I'd have to restrain and control my Italian temper with some of the idiots that appear there. Seriously so many of these people are momentum people that focus on stock price and nothing else and totally forget (and in cases I wonder if they even know) that stock price is a representation of valuation. Cramer is more of a showboat and comedian than he is a stock picker IMO. Deep down he's smart, but IMO he has his own agenda and his bigger priority is to entertain.

I wish I had kept the show on my DVR but a few years ago to a person on the late afternoon show Fast Money they said that Apple, after reaching near $125 had no upside (I repeat for effect zero upside) because it had just moved 50% from a price of $84. This wasn't one person, it was stated and re-iterated by every member of the panel that day and the entire reasoning was that it couldn't possibly keep rising because it had made too big a rise already. In fact two panel members predicted a serious pull back in Apple that day. One said the upside potential was very limited and 2 others said the stock would meander around $125 for a long time to come. No one talked multiples or valuation or growth or strength of its Balance Sheet or product innovation. Nope - it couldn't rise anymore based on the past few months price rise in the stock - case closed. I really feel for anyone that listens to these clowns. You need to see through them and focus on the 10-20% of the guests that really offer some insight. There are some but they are few and far between. Most of the folks that know what they are doing are not seeking publicity on CNBC and aren't about to give away their professional knowledge for free..

circlew

Of course you are correct on all points. My Italian temper wold make Cramer loose the rest of his hair!!

Looks like most analysts agree with you from Market watch.

Analysts Recommendations
current 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago
BUY 41 39 41
OVERWEIGHT 8 8 8
HOLD 5 4 4
UNDERWEIGHT 0 0 0
SELL 0 0 0
MEAN Buy Buy Buy

AAPL Recommendations

Regards,
OW

ljflx

Couple of noteworthy stories in today's NY Times. Upgrade to iPad 2 next month and it might be iPad 3

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/ipad-march-apple/?scp=3&sq=Apple,%20in%- 20shift&st=cse

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/apple-announces-independent-factory-ins- pections/?hpw

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/14/business/small-cap-stocks-take-center-stage.ht- ml?_r=1&ref=business

ljflx

Couple of noteworthy stories in today's NY Times re Apple and investing. Upgrade to iPad 2 next month and it might be iPad 3

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/ipad-march-apple/?scp=3&sq=Apple,%20in%- 20shift&st=cse

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/apple-announces-independent-factory-ins- pections/?hpw

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/14/business/small-cap-stocks-take-center-stage.ht- ml?_r=1&ref=business

circlew

I would assume the labor issues (on par with Wal-Mart) will affect the entire industry. Interesting read.

Whatever held the price back last year seems to be vanishing fast!

Regards,
OW

cyclone4

Len,

I love your post as usual. I hear some of the same rhetoric now about AAPL as you and I did a couple years ago" "It has gone up too fast and I would take profits right now. Not sure if it has much more upside". They don't talk about the fact at this price it is still much too cheap.

Btw, for those that do not want to buy AAPL because its price is so high, let me pose this question: How can PCLN (Priceline) be trading at $576 and AAPL at only $509? How does this make any sense? There is NO comparison as to which company is more valuable.

cyclone4

Analysts Recommendations
current 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago
BUY 41 39 41
OVERWEIGHT 8 8 8
HOLD 5 4 4
UNDERWEIGHT 0 0 0
SELL 0 0 0
MEAN Buy Buy Buy

AAPL Recommendations

OW, where did you find these stats? Interesting!

ljflx

That 2% rise for Apple that one of the idiots said was the most anyone could hope for on CNBC happened today as the stock reached $511.44 after hours.

tagman

Well... I put my foot in the shallow side of the pool today. In other words, I finally bought a small handfull of a few stocks. This will probably cause the entire market to crash soon... ha. I honestly did not buy a lot. $41,000 in total, and yes, some of it is AAPL, but not that much. Also a little AMZN, and a few others. The total value went up all of $410 right after I purchased it... lol. It made me feel good, but I am well aware that I would have to purchase a LOT more shares in order to recognize any worthwhile gains (or losses?) But, at least I have now partially overcome the post traumatic stress of my last market experience... I remember how I was doing so great (even in a down market) until that terrible day.

Anyway, the real estate deal is due to close within 48 hours or less. I have a few little things I want to do, such as some window treatments, adding an additional counter/bar off the kitchen, and a couple of closet door upgrades. After that, I hope to have it rented soon enough. Since there is no mortgage, the only obligations are HOA dues and property taxes. Hopefully the property will go up in value sharply in the near future... but I am realistically not expecting the real estate market to turn around for a couple of more years... if we are lucky.

My wife has been starting to get up and get around over the last few days, and has been trying to get her life back, and I am certainly grateful that maybe there's a little light at the end of the tunnel... but she's in a lot of pain again, and I am fearful of a setback. I told her she really needs to pace herself slowly. But, it's been nice just to see her smile again once in a while.

It was nice to see Lauradada's post.

I've been reading here, but haven't had a lot of time to write. Best regards to all of you, and I am thrilled that many of you are doing better in the market. Maybe one day the market will return to it's highs... but we're still a long way off from that. Perhaps that means there's a lot of upside potential for the next bull market.

TM

cyclone4

TM,

I am SO happy to see you here again. This forum loses its luster without you. But above all, I am happy to hear that your wife is making some progress in her ordeal.

Btw, I just sold all of my stocks in the after hours trading when I saw your post. Just kidding, just kidding! It's nice to have you on board. My ONLY advice to you this time is this: Hang on to AAPL (and buy more on breaks) for the long haul. It will go to at least $700. Apple "rules" the tech world. Oh yes! I do have a little more advice. DON'T listen to any of the idiots (at least the regulars on the show anyway) on CNBC giving their BS analysis about AAPL.

Btw, does anyone here have an answer on my question above: How can PCLN be trading at $576 and AAPL at $510? Where is the logic there? If PCLN is at $576, shouldn't AAPL be trading at something like a $1,000? What am I missing here?

gagrice

I think the difference with Apple and Priceline are shares outstanding. Apple has almost a billion shares outstanding and Priceline only 49 million. What is funny is the last time Priceline caught my attention was about 9 years ago when it was under $15. It had dropped from a beginning of almost $1000 per share. I thought the company was history. Shoulda coulda.

circlew

Marketwatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl/analystestimates

Regards,
OW

houdini1

As Gary said, the total number of outstanding shares X the share value, equals the value of the company. If AAPL had a 2:1 stock split, each share would then be worth about $250...but that doesn't mean AAPL would then be worth half as much as PCLN.

cyclone4

Gary and Houdini,

Thank you for the explanation. I should have known that it had something to due with the number of outstanding shares.

In any case, AAPL continues to defy some of those morons on CNBC. I love it!

cyclone4

Thanks OW! That's a real good source. This strong "BUY" signal, stares in the face of some of the morons on CNBC.

cyclone4

I obviously jinxed AAPL. It has plummeted from its highs and now trading $5 lower. Amazing move. I hope it's just profit taking.

tagman

I am actually glad AAPL dropped because it gave me an opportunity to buy a little more.

TM

tagman

Whoa... that's not just a little drop.

Figures. I finally get the nerve to buy some stocks again, and they plummet immediately after I buy. I am starting to get spooked.

I sure hope you are right about AAPL Charlie. I bought more AAPL earlier today, and now own 250 shares @ $502. But, then it dropped a lot more and I am now upside down on the stock.

TM

cyclone4

I sure hope you are right about AAPL Charlie. I bought more AAPL earlier today, and now own 250 shares $502. But, then it dropped a lot more and I am now upside down on the stock.

TM,

You need to have patience with AAPL. Do you actually believe that the $526 high reached today will be its high water mark forever? Patience with AAPL for myself and Len has paid off beautifully. I am confident that you will also reap the rewards if you stick with it. At least that is my opinion. I'm sure that Len would also agree.