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The Stock Market and Investing

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    anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Charlie

    There was a nice thing today about jpm giving the trustee of MF one and three quarter hundred million dollars...I sure hope some of that get to you..

    It strikes me as very strange in this time and era that something like this could not be readily dealt with, and particularly as you were issues checks....In my world when a check is issued, that is like saying `I owe you money`...disgraceful..

    As for the jpm debacle , just because I `lost my way` doesn`t mean that there isn`t something to be gleaned for the future......It has had nine point declines a couple of time in the more recent past, and although this time it may be more, I do think it is a well run institution, and will rebound......I think it might represent a good value , and if purchased `right` would be a decent investment...

    I know we all like and respect aapl, but it is a dangerous thing to get too large a position (in relation to a person`s overall wealth) and we should all look for decent alternative opportunities , to go along with aapl....

    I am like you in that I have to believe in a industry, and then a specific company in that industry.....There is no question in my mind that the banking industry is of paramount importance to the over all well being of our nation, and this specific one (jpm) is highly regarded in that industry....They made a big mistake and are now paying for it----keep an eye on it, as it may make you some money----Tony
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    There was a nice thing today about jpm giving the trustee of MF one and three quarter hundred million dollars...I sure hope some of that get to you..

    Yes indeed. I looked at the the MF Global Trustee's website and sure enough. JPM agreed to pay back $168 million of the stolen customer money. There are still ongoing negotiations for some additional money.

    Why did JPM hold this money for SO long in the first place? Why don't they immediately release all the rest of the money they hold in their possession that belongs to former MF Global customers? I hate to say it, but there are some evil people at JPM and justice better be served one of these days.
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    imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,200
    >Why did JPM hold this money for SO long in the first place? Why don't they immediately release all the rest of the money they hold in their possession that belongs to former MF Global customers? I hate to say it, but there are some evil people at JPM and justice better be served one of these days.

    The problem I see is the financial institutions are uncontrolled currently. They were bailed out with favoritism and now we have hoopla over JPM's having lost 2 billion--isn't that what they were doing?--taking risks. Apparently the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act didn't reform enough and didn't protect, despite the cute naming system.

    We need to bring back the idea that banks do banking and other instituions do risking money, hoping to make money from all the little investors who think they can play in the big boys' market place and win, such as the general stock market and especially the "funny paper" side of the market that trades so much.

    I see the MFGlobal problem and now JPM as symptoms of the wrong type of legislation. And the voices are suggesting more marshmallow regulation will fix things for the election campaign, when in reality we need to split the banks and the other companies back to the way they were. Ain't gonna happen with all the "buddies from Wall Street" who are in the administration and with the Prez having $1 million with JPMorgan.

    Make the banks into banks again.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    And the voices are suggesting more marshmallow regulation will fix things for the election campaign

    That is how I see it as well. They did so little on the oil speculation it was a joke. The Dodd-Frank bill managed to raise bank fees on those that can least afford it. At my Chase bank you have to keep $7500 at all times to avoid a monthly service charge as a result of that silly legislation. So what has Congress and the Prez done to protect US from their buddies at GS, banks and Wall Street? How tough would it be to re-instate Glass Steagall as it was written originally. It lasted 66 years with no financial melt downs. Of course there are the $billions we lost to Fannie and Freddie as a result of Frank and Dodd protecting their friends in that financial empire.

    Vote em all out.
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,319
    Just remember, corporations own politics, not the other way around. They are people too, my friend. Because of that, no meaningful regulation will ever exist. However, I'd rather have pretend regs than none at all. Voting em all out will only go so far when the next batch of garbage is owned by the same entities. Broken system, taking cold medicine to cure cancer will only get you so far.
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    imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,200
    >taking cold medicine to cure cancer

    How do we cure cancer?

    I watched Rep. Ryan being disrespected on Meet the Depressed by the Russert replacement guy (David Gregory? Dick Gregory?) in discussing the finances we need to cut. The public can't even get an honest discussion in the mainstream media of what it's going to take to get government overspending into balance again. Gregory couched the questioning to be clear that all we need to do is raise the debt ceiling and everything will go on just fine.

    This is politics? Our problem is the Main Stream Media that focuses on a 2 billion dollar loss at a friend of gov firm as if we should step in to repay their gambling loss.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,319
    "How do we cure cancer?"

    We don't, we treat it. More lucrative. But I guess that's something for another venue.

    Government overspending is never honestly addressed no matter which nearly identical party of clowns is in office. Can you imagine a private firm operating like the public sector? It would be like a combination of JPM and well-connected defense industry trough feeders. And just as nobody ever spent their way to prosperity, nobody ever austerity-measured their way to it either. The sweet spot will be missed for greed, which in fact isn't always good.

    Media is all bought by people who are corporations. Actions should be judged for what they are rather than how they are reported. There is no unbiased media. No matter...2BN, a drop in the bucket of our wasteful foreign policy budget.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    The problem I see is the financial institutions are uncontrolled currently. They were bailed out with favoritism and now we have hoopla over JPM's having lost 2 billion--isn't that what they were doing?--taking risks. Apparently the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act didn't reform enough and didn't protect, despite the cute naming system.

    We need to bring back the idea that banks do banking and other instituions do risking money, hoping to make money from all the little investors who think they can play in the big boys' market place and win, such as the general stock market and especially the "funny paper" side of the market that trades so much.


    I am in total agreement. Well stated!
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    How tough would it be to re-instate Glass Steagall as it was written originally.

    Absolutely! The Glass -Steagall should be re-instated. Otherwise, the incredible cheating/corruption will continue unabated.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I wondered if the JPM error prompted them selling one of their holdings to the Chinese? They along with Bain Capital are owners of AMC Theaters. Interesting that Disney and Dreamworks are already making deals to produce movies in China.

    China firm buys AMC to form world's largest cinema chain

    (CNN) -- China's Dalian Wanda Group and AMC Entertainment announced Monday a $2.6 billion deal to take over the U.S. theater group, forming the world's largest cinema chain, according to a new release on the deal.

    The move is the latest in a raft of deals between U.S. entertainment companies and Chinese firms, linking the world's largest theater market with the world's fastest growing.


    http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/21/business/china-amc-wanda-theater/index.html?hpt=hp- _t3
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    It's about time, but today's action ($30.90 higher) with AAPL was very impressive. I actually started to get a good feeling about AAPL back on last Thursday and Friday. My buying of additional shares on Friday at about $534 looks good now. Let's all (those of us that own it) hope that the low was made on Friday morning. I really believe the steep decline over the past several weeks is finished.
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    carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,502
    edited May 2012
    Yes, very nice aapl day today indeed. Wonder if it was due in part to the theory that some money coming out of the Facebook slide was re-directed into Apple. I hope we've seen our lows for some time to come.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Wonder if it was due in part to the theory that some money coming out of the Facebook slide was re-directed into Apple.

    I think there was a lot more to this huge rally for AAPL today than people just dumping their FB purchases and buying AAPL.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    House Republicans say the Obama administration is too politically tainted to investigate former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s role in the MF Global bankruptcy.

    The group of congressmen, led by Rep. Michael Grimm (R., N.Y.), is calling for an independent counsel to investigate whether Corzine illegally transferred billions of dollars from customer accounts to offset his risky trading strategy.

    “If there was ever a textbook definition of conflict of interest, this is it,” Rep. Bob Turner (R., N.Y.) said. “We are calling on the administration to take politics out” of the investigation.

    Corzine has bundled more than $500,000 for the president’s reelection campaign and lobbied administration officials on financial regulation, a fact the lawmakers repeated often at a Wednesday morning press conference.

    “It certainly doesn’t fair well when Corzine is listed in the first quarter as one of Obama’s biggest fundraisers—it strikes as political nepotism,” Grimm, a former FBI agent, said. “He should be bundling money for a fund to repay these customers.”

    One of the nation’s top regulators, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, worked with Corzine at Goldman Sachs. The two met several times during Corzine’s tenure at MF Global to discuss financial regulation, including a law that would have restricted its customer investments.

    “As the result of direct lobbying efforts of Mr. Corzine and other high level executives, the CFTC delayed certain regulatory changes that would have enhanced customer protections,” the letter states, referring to July 2011 phone calls from Corzine’s office to Gensler’s.

    The rule, now known as the “MF Global rule,” did not become an official regulation until immediately after the firm’s collapse.

    Gensler recused himself from the case in November.


    The same Gensler that was supposed to tighten up the regulations on oil speculation.

    http://freebeacon.com/grimm-reaper/
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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited May 2012
    I think it's just money that was temporarily moved out coming back in Charlie. You also have the issue of banks in Europe liquidating positions. The FB issue was a temporary one. I don't think anyone intended to stay in FB as it was priced beyond perfection more like a price it needs 2-3 years to achieve. Companies with FB numbers should be priced at about 10-15% of where FB was priced and to mark it 5X over Google's multiple was beyond insane. Then to dump Apple's stronger growth, higher quality income for FB at an exchanged multiple of 10-13x (depending on how you look at Apple's cash hoard) for 100X on FB is pure lunacy. So the selloff using Apple as an ATM machine was always intended to get in and out of FB fast. But FB was priced too high. The traded volume on Apple was about normal today so my take is the selling pressure is over, the stock will spike back up probably to $600-610 pretty quickly and then we go from there.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited May 2012
    Here is a very nice summary of why AAPL took off like a rocket today along with some info on what the future holds:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/05/21/why-apple-jumped-31-today.aspx
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    imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,200
    >I am in total agreement. Well stated!

    I appreciate your saying that.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    This is absolutely incredible to me and warrants an SEC investigation:

    Morgan Stanley (MS) cut its revenue forecast for Facebook (FB) right before the company debuted on the public market. It is highly unusual for a lead underwriter to take any negative action on the stock of a company during the IPO roadshow. Morgan Stanley analyst Scott Devitt reduced his forecast for the company’s revenue. This could explain the weaker-than-expected institutional demand for the IPO. About 20% of demand for the offering came from retail investors.

    Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/google-motorola-mobile- -android-facebook-arc/5/22/2012/id/41181#ixzz1vcHubcGY
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    kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 241,029
    Chinese wall...

    Analysts are supposed to be completely independent of the investment bankers... I think this demonstrates that...

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    A first heard about this early this morning. This is yet another example of CORRUPTION by the big boys. They are all in it together.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    The AAPL trading action today is quite impressive considering the Dow has been on its rear end most of the day.
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    carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,502
    edited May 2012
    Agreed....(virtual) high-five.
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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited May 2012
    Looks like we are moving back to 600 now that so much of the technical posturing is done. It offerered quite a buying opportunity with an absurdly low valuation for awhile there. The company is still badly valued so there is still opportunity. I don't have too much doubt we roll toward 700 as we approach the earnings for Q3 later this year near iPhone 5's debut.
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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited May 2012
    How low can Facebook go? IMO it'll fall to the low 20's once shorts are in unless someoneone comes up with a heck of a revenue idea. Zuckerburg has shown nothing but bad management skills thus far in doing a billion dollar acquisition on a company with no revenue and all of 11 employees, handling the IPO after the debacle, raising the IPO price while lowering revenue estimates and increasing shares etc. All of these things plus the hoodie point to a manager that looks clueless in running a public company. Zuckerburg in a hoodie looks like a kid smirking. Steve Jobs in jeans looked like a man in total command of his audience. Facebook is way over-valued probably by a minimum of a 2:1 ratio at its IPO price of $38. Although Amazon is valued higher at least Amazon has tentacles in a lot of places that can at least justify some of the valuation. It's way too rich but it has loss leaders that are supposed to turn positive at some point. Anyway this is a very good story here showing not only FB's problems but how the math that certain analysts use doesn't even come close to adding up.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/susankalla/2012/05/25/facebooks-right-price-could-be- -14-watch-out-for-the-cliff/
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I think some people believed we could repeat the madness of the 1990s. Interesting how the whole IPO thing died after the Dot.com bubble burst.

    Nine IPOs are scheduled to price this week, which would be the most in five months according to Bloomberg. So far this month, only 7 IPOs have been priced. Below is a chart showing the number of US IPOs priced on a monthly basis since 1991. As shown, IPOs have bounced back somewhat since becoming non-existent during the financial crisis. Things are still much slower than they were in the mid-2000s, however. The average number of IPOs per month so far this year is 13.75 compared to an average monthly number of 25 from 2004 to 2007. And the mid-2000s were slow as well compared to the 1990s. Who knows if there will ever be another IPO period like the 90s.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/227474-number-of-ipos-by-month
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I feel sorry for all those devoted Facebook users that spend countless hours on Facebook and jumped in with the IPO hook, line, and sinker. They thought they were buying a gold mine since they probably were blinded by the fact that because they were heavy users it automatically equated that buying Facebook shares was a no brainer. Instead of buying a gold mine, they stepped on a mine :sick: .
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I would be surprised if it was users buying FB. I think it was the Big banks and hedge funds etc wanting to get in on the IPO killing. It is too much of a vapor for me to get excited enough to buy. From watching the 1990s IPOs the ones worth getting into were gobbled up by insiders. I could get interested in AAPL if they split 10 for one.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I obviously was not trying to imply that users were major buyers if the stock. However, you can rest assure that some did. Those are the ones I feel for. Yes of course the big banks and hedge funds were the huge buyers. Who cares about them? Let them suffer.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The problem is the big players make the rest of us suffer. I know you have not forgotten MF Global. I just hope none of my MFs bought the hype surrounding the FB IPO.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Yes I know. It's sort of like a do-loop. If you are an investor in one of these big banks or hedge funds and they deal in reckless trades or cheating, you will suffer along with them. In other words, we are stuck in a broken system and there's no easy way out of it, if there is a way out at all.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited May 2012
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    anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    An interesting article Thanks I wonder if the tv will be the see through kind? I`v just seen a picture of it and it looks like a fine thing...The picture was of a tv not an Apple tv...

    Boy was the fb a flop...but not for the sellers....I also think anyone who purchased it was just kind of greedy and looking for a quick buck....That`s what Wall Street has turned into...Quick Buck.....Tony
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Hi Tony!

    I think you will like this article even if you don't own any AAPL.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/05/30/ceo-praise-of-the-week-apple.as- px
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    anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Hi Charlie

    I follow aapl very closely, but do not have a meaningful position....I take the quarterly trade, and what would be of interest to you, is I am waiting to become a mobile phone owner :)...That will put some more money in your pocket.

    I follow the Fool, and they do a great job of writing, and investing for the really long haul.....I just can`t take the risk of `the really long haul`, because the market is changing.....I would not have the time or patience to ride out a severe decline, and I remember too well the banking fiasco..

    I had a really large investment in what turned out to be Wachovia, with a extremely low cost basis , and if I hadn`t been disciplined , would have lost almost all the gains....`.Live and Learn` is an important phrase....Tony
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I am waiting to become a mobile phone owner ...That will put some more money in your pocket.

    Tony, you will feel like a new man once you get yourself the latest iPhone :D .
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    It has been really quiet here the past week so I thought I would try to create some debate. Take a look at the video in the link below. Is AAPL a better investment than gold? I think it is, but you can make your own decision after watching the video.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/rather-own-apple-gold-120742748.html
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That is a good comparison. If you bought $100,000 in AAPL 10 years ago it would be worth $4.68 million today. If you bought the same amount of gold it would only be worth $536k today. Either would be far better than any of the indices. My largest mutual fund holding is not even double what it was 10 years ago. So for those that got into AAPL 8-10 years ago it was a phenomenal stock pick. I have an 85 year old friend that got in even before that. She does not want to pay capital gains and does not need the money. So her children will benefit from a great stock pick.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    That is a good comparison. If you bought $100,000 in AAPL 10 years ago it would be worth $4.68 million today. If you bought the same amount of gold it would only be worth $536k today.

    Very interesting! Hopefully, those of us that own AAPL will be as fortunate in the next few years.
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,319
    edited June 2012
    I should have sunk my entire lot into aapl the day the first ipod was unveiled. Oh well, shoulda coulda woulda. At least I didn't follow the advice of co-workers and buy property in 2006.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Yes we shouda and coulda. :sick: It took over two years after the iPod came out before the stock started going up. I think the second generation iPhone was the real driver for AAPL.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited June 2012
    I should have sunk my entire lot into aapl the day the first ipod was unveiled. Oh well, shoulda coulda woulda. At least I didn't follow the advice of co-workers and buy property in 2006.

    It's probably not too late even at these lofty levels. If you have faith that Apple will continue to have huge profits (very likely in my opinion) over the next couple years, you can probably ride it out to $1,000 and then re-assess. That's my plan anyway. I try to close my eyes on these sell-offs and think long term.
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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,328
    Yep, should have bought that Apple 10 years ago instead of investing in that fast food business selling frozen spinach on a stick !!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    We bought a quite a bit of MCD when it was at $14. Based on some reports I had read and the dividend it pays. I almost sold it all when it hit $100. Though do not want to pay the LTCG tax while living in CA. I don't expect it to drop a lot in price. I hope.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The market all around is very pleased with the elections.
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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,328
    Yes, I was anticipating a nice "pop" today.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Bernanke has a real way with words. :sick:
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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited June 2012
    Charlie,

    Here's a story in todays NY Times about MF Global playing with accounting policy. It's a new version of Enron. Nothing they did is wrong legally but it shows you how they operated under Corsine. They took advantage of a GAAP rule that was created to stop companies from deferring losses and used it for aggressive revenue recognition. Had you traced cash flow to the P&L you'd have found that the revenue/earnings were without cash. For all of Wall Streets sophistication rarely do they seem to follow the Balance Sheet and the quality of earnings. Amazon's last earnings report was revered on Wall street and to me it was terrible and impossible to understand how pros jumped on it. I've often noted how high a quality Apple's earnings are with a cash build that often outdoes its earnings. Also do you remember that guy that wanted Apple to defer revenue on hardware products that it sold and collected in cash 100% of its revenue up front. He thought so simply because they provided updates free. Someone posted it here and asked for my response. Well he'd endorse what MF Global did here because he was all about theory/rules rather than the common sense of the authors college professors essence of revenue recognition.

    Bottom line is that if the Balance Sheet fails to show an improvement that rivals the P&L gains than there is something very suspicious about the P&L. Sometimes it can be a loss leader strategy (which is what pros are choosing to believe on Amazon), sometimes it can be an investment strategy (one that doesn't allow capitalization of assets) but it can also be taking advantage of GAAP (as was the case here and with Enron and others). No matter how you look at it the earnings lacked quality and the market bought into revenue gains without cash flow and in the case of Amazon with a reduction of profits. In Amazon's case they believe loss leaders are laying the foundation for greater market share that will eventually be profitable in the future.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/08/business/mf-global-case-exposes-weakness-in-ac- - - - - - - - - - counting-rules.html?pagewanted=all
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited June 2012
    Holy smokes! My head is spinning by reading that article. I am totally lost. But the bottom line is that many $hundreds of millions of customer money was eventually stolen and we are still waiting to be made 100% whole. If indeed we are, it may take several years. A crime was committed and some must go to jail if justice is served.

    On a much happier note, I have a strong feeling that we will see a huge jump in AAPL stock Monday/Tuesday.
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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited June 2012
    On a much happier note, I have a strong feeling that we will see a huge jump in AAPL stock Monday/Tuesday.

    The whole market should move up big tomorrow on the Spanish debt deal. Futures were up 135 the last I looked. Plus Apple may debut a lot of news this week and its mapping program likely gets real popular real fast.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-week-ahead-spain-120931371.html

    Here's another well written article on MF Global in the NY Times.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/09/business/trustee-suggests-mf-global-misused-cu- - - - stomers-money.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
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