The Stock Market and Investing

ljflx

Tony - they could distribute $40 bln a year thru dividends and still build cash $10-15bln a year from their absurd $138bln cash pile. That would be almost an 8.5% yield. The stock would have to almost double in price given its growth which has slowed to a mere 20% - not stopped. When you make money the street sets expectations a lot higher than it does for an Amazon which is bleeding money if you really analyze it.

anthonyp

If a person were to question themselves by asking what they are doing, buying any stock, it would be `to make money` ..I think the differences of opinion from those that do not think aapl owes their shareholders anything other than a good product, are confused...

Apple was a really `pure play` when Jobs was running the show....and the last few years the success has been extraordinary.....You guys have been there through the thick and the thin, and deserve a return on your risk.....I`m just a small owner, but my grandson is in all the way :-) (everything is relative) I would be in in a bigger way if the return were to be understandable, like other large companies....

The present management and board should have addresses this stock problem long ago, and the best way would have been to increase the dividend before the current year---good reason due to the known tax increase, and earnings mis--and the knowledge that the then yield would have cushioned the decline.....I ask you` Why have a thirty percent decline in your stock if it could be avoided?` Poor Tony ps you think your car is coming end of next week? If so I bet you can`t sleep

anthonyp

PPS How much snow did you get? t

ljflx

10" and this is a storm where you can say only 10". NYC had a foot. My sister-in-law in Saint james on Long Island had 28" and parts of conneticut had 35-40". The storm intensified too far NE of my area and we still got 10' so that shows you how strong it got. Hurricane gusts were common in New England.

ljflx

Thanks OW.

Keep your eyes open for a possible storm on valentines day and perhaps a huge storm next Sunday or Monday. We got real lucky with this last one largely missing us to the northeast.

Re Apple - yes a content play like Netflix would be a great play for them. They could also buy Disney and discard the theme parks. With their cash and market cap they can do anything they want to. They'll build cash at 40-50 bln a year and while analysts play the growth game they'll build cash like crazy that the many growth companies combined have no hope of reaching a fraction of. I've see too many growth plays that never produce cash and in some cases never had a hope to.

ljflx

This is really OT but the change from 5-6 years ago is incredible. The Edmunds car forums, where many of us on this board met, seem to have died. They used to be so active and everything came apart when Edmunds split things up on the individual models. All of a sudden there were 5 boards on the cars (interior, exterior, engine, brakes etc) and people seemed to stop posting. What a shame. Hosts - is this the cause?

Look at these stats on the S-class. In some cases even where there are recent posts they are the first in a long time, in some cases years. Others have not seen a post in years.

http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/WebX/.ef14c39/?ed_displayMakeModelRelatedDiscus- - - sions!make=Mercedes-Benz&model=S-Class

Kirstie_H

Kind of depends on which vehicle board you're visiting. Many of our more general discussions, like GM News, Entry-Level Luxury Performance Sedans, etc., get tons of posts per day. Same with some of the GM make/model discussions. S-Class is pretty slow these days, but it's just one of those shifts in who decides to visit us. Same with Luxury Lounge. Trust me, overall the forums are not "dead", and in many cases I have trouble keeping up on a daily basis, more than I did a few years ago.

houdini1

I think they made those changes because they thought, more choices, more clicks, more ad dollars...and never gave a thought about what their members wanted. I don't think anyone liked the changes and many left. The law of unintended consequences.

I also think that they went through a period where some of the hosts became really overbearing and tried to control things too much. They started banning people and closing down forums for very trivial subjective offenses and many more left. It has gotten a little better in the last couple of years.

imidazol97

> but it's just one of those shifts in who decides to visit us

Where did the Forums link go?

"Forums" used to be one of the tabs in the bar at the top of the home page. But now it's hard to find. I would think it would be included in the "Tips and ADvice" flyout menu but it's under "What's Hot." The link choice for forums should be apparent without clicking on the home page. Someone coming look for forums most likely will leave not having seen the choice.

Lots of links to forums are out there on Google et al when doing searches. But so are links to other forums-oriented sites and probably those pop up more often. E.g., if I search for "price ford fusion," what will I find as links. But if I happen to have heard of Edmunds through some of the tv or radio interveiw blips about something in the auto industry, will I know that there is an active forum group? It's like Edmunds management is trying to lead people to their tests and reviews and is trying to be like CR.

PF_Flyer

Forums are alive and well, and the link is under the What's Hot tab at the top of the page

gagrice

The value of gold has not risen. The dollar and euro have lost value. It is one of the few real hedges against inflation.

Putin Turns Black Gold Into Bullion as Russia Out-Buys World

When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.

Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-- russia-out-buys-world.html

ljflx

S-Class is pretty slow these days, but it's just one of those shifts in who decides to visit us. Same with Luxury Lounge.

That's how the high end car boards used to be. Now they are dead as a doornail. Designman, a friend to many of us and a BMW man started that board. Previous to that there was the high end board that was so active on a daily basis that I couldn't keep up with it. Some of us on here met on that board or on the individual lux car boards.

fintail

Vladdie will need good luck with that.

The erosion of currency value seems to correspond with consolidating wealth. Not coincidental.

ljflx

Houdini - I didn't know where to post. The LS board should never have been split up, nor any other lux board. I tried to consolidate it back to a singular board but it was too late. Some people got told that posts they made on one LS board belonged on another. All posters were trying to do was go where the traffic was. I think I told Pat that what was being done was going to kill the traffic on the boards. Obviously it did. Sometimes it really got raucous on the high end board and the posts in a day went thru the roof. It's a shame those days are gone. Maybe the splits worked for the high volume cars but it was a complete failure for the lux group.

ljflx

I think the AMG trim package on an S is a no cost option

Fintail - the AMG sport package is $5900 or $6600. The latter is 20" wheels vs 19" on the $5900 option. Mine is the 19" option. The 20" wheels give a tire that is just too low a profile. While I was there a guy looking at the car I test drove said a buddy of his had two 20" tires go flat on him after hitting a pot hole. The car I test drove was the same exact white car with options I took except that it had a black interior. The car I took has a cashmere interior and is on the boat and should be ready in 7-10 days.

BTW - new S-class is going to be shown to the world at an MB event soon, not an auto show. It debuts in America in September. It's nice and probably has great tech but to me it looks too much like a bigger e-class. I like the current S styling more.

ljflx

Houdini - forgot to say good luck with the LX. That truck is stunning. Between it and the GL you can't make a mistake. Both ride like lux sedans and are whisper quiet. The LX has the more lux interior IMO. But I love my GL. What color did you get? I love it in white and in that gray color Lexus has.

fintail

I see that now, that's a change in package nomenclature from past years, I think. Trying to keep it new at the end of the line.

I'd choose the smaller wheels, too - the larger ones, apart from tire cost and risk, will also ride rougher. Nice colors , I also prefer the lighter color interior. I think you made a good choice, that was a heck of a lease deal compared to the LS, MBUSA must really be subsidizing them hard to move the last of the W221s. From what I recall, you are getting a 100K+ car for the same payment as a 70K-ish car.

I wonder why the new S is so late - the previous 2 versions were in the US by winter and spring of the preceding year, and in Europe even earlier. Making it like a normal car, I guess.

On the lease subject, local dealer is starting to have some decent deals on Bluetec E-class, which I am starting to think about. $58K MSRP with $3700 down and $489/mo isn't shabby, and I'd wager even better deals before the facelift 2014 model arrives.

ljflx

Works out to a $108K car over an $88K car for just about $75 more. Most LWB LS cars are coming in with equipment that jumps their price to $88-92K. They are selling too. The MB's are also moving. MB is doing a $1,169 deal on a $98K car ($1,099 on the 95K RWD) plus taxes with $4300 down. If you want zero down add about $130 to those amounts. Several S-class buyers I talked to think the new S just looks too much like an E while the current gen car looked more like the more expensive maybach. I agree with them. Anyway it's a heck of a car - as is the LS. But outfitted with AMG wheels and moulding plus the panorama roof it looks real unique especially in white.

Kirstie_H

Hi - that was a decision that was made many years ago, by folks who likely aren't with Edmunds anymore. For the record, Pat had no part in making that decision. We're always open to suggestions.

imid - I know, bummer on the loss of the forums tab. Again, not our decision. However, it was made on research that showed that most people are finding us through Google. Anything within the forums environment is under our control, and we will definitely consider feedback. Unfortunately, anything outside the forums environment is way, way above our heads!

On the Support board, there's a suggestions discussion. Our supervisor at HQ reads the posts on that board: http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/direct/view/.f247101/

fintail

Yikes, I didn't know a loaded LS had inflated so much, Lexus fans I know usually point out that "everything is standard" on a Lexus when they mock the ala carte options lists of German cars. On my old school AMG car, almost everything was standard - but the MB of then isn't the MB of now.

I'd have made the same decision as you, maybe even down to the color. I forget, does your car have pano?

ljflx

Kirstie,

No blame on Pat. Pat was great to deal with.

ljflx

Fin - The AMG sport package was always an option that cost $5K or more. I remember pricing it in back in 1998 and 2001. The one thing I am annoyed about with MB is the leather option. The standard leather is real leather and is nice but the upgrade leather is really gorgeous but is a $2100 option. In a car like the S the upcharge leather s/b standard. I think the leather in the LS is an in-betweener. Nicer than the standard leather on the S but short of the upgraded leather. My car has the panoramic roof. That and the AMG styling were a big selling point. Car has a real sporty look outfitted with both in the diamond white.

The LS at 88-92K is the LWB AWD. The short wheel base is several grand cheaper and accounts for about 75% of its sales. The F sport LS is in very good demand but is not available in AWD.

ljflx

Two stories on Apple from todays NY Times that s/b of interest to the Apple crowd.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/technology/samsung-challenges-apples-cool-fact- or.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/disruptions-apple-is-said-to-be-develop- ing-a-curved-glass-smart-watch/?ref=todayspaper

fintail

I remember in the 90s, AMG package was pretty much just wheels. Those wheels are sought after today. From 2000+, it also included body cladding. On a new E-class, the sport package is a no-cost option, that's probably why I think it is no-cost on the S. The car also looks kind of bare without it.

Diamond white is also an extra cost feature, I think. We have it better than Europe though - there, all metallic paint is extra charge, many features that are standard here are extra cost there. Our cars are loaded by their standard.

Your car will be sharp. If I could get a P2 pano E350 Bluetec in those colors at the special lease rate I saw yesterday, I would probably go for it.

I don't think the new Lexus face works well on the LS. Trying too hard, maybe. Trying to look aggressive, but the car is anything but.

ljflx

Personally - and it's just my opinion - Lexus looked to create a new body style and jump the next gen MB S to market. But they couldn't get it done and plastered a new grille on the old model instead. It works better in the LWB than it does in the SWB. Then they made some interior changes and some minor exterior changes and tried saying it was a brand new model. They then abandoned that hogwash story and just said it's a refresh. I'm sure the tsunami played a roll in thwarting their plans. So now they've put off a total redesign to sometime in 2015 as a 2016 model. Again just my opinion. I don't have any facts to support it but I've seen this happen in business in different variants too many times.

houdini1

The one we traded in was white, and the new one is nebula grey with parchment interior. Starting in 2013 the only interior colors offered are black or parchment. We really liked the '07 but the new one is light years ahead of it. We just got back from a 75 mile round trip shopping/lunch excursion. The highlight of the trip was the drive.

When do you expect delivery on the MB? It sounds gorgeous and I am sure it will be great. I will be hanging onto my 2010 LS awd for a few more years. I am not crazy about the new interior on the 2013, but it will probably grow on me.

fintail

Wow, 2015? That's insane, but I believe it 100%, I have heard nothing even speculative about the new LS. Current one has been around since 07, just now a heavy facelift. One of the oldest designs on the market, especially now with the W221 S-class being replaced. I am pretty sure the doors are interchangeable, and if that's the case, it is anything but a new design.

They claim the new face RX is "all new" as well. Most customers probably believe it, with that grille.

I had read they were considering a replacement to the old IS Sportcross. I am a little curious, but it could just be chatter. All of these people with new cars makes me itch just a little :shades:

cyclone4

This momentous decision concerns the Keystone XL Pipeline. After reading this article I am leaning against completion of the pipeline. According to the article, the climatic and environmental effects would be huge if the project is completed. If so, then definitely count me as being opposed to this. But the author may be overly biased. I imagine most of you regulars on this forum would be for approval for the project based on past feelings on the economy, Obama, etc. Please don't turn this into a political game. I am just interested on your thoughts either pro or against the project.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-t-klare/obama-keystone-xl-decision_b_26617- 98.html?utm_hp_ref=green

ljflx

Houdini - I've seen the truck in that color. It looks great. I'd go either that or white if I was buying it. Probably white but only because I had the smokey granite predecessor color in the LS. I much prefer the grey over black. SUV's to me don't look so great in black.

The MB will be in end of the week or early next week. I'd say I'd take it by Tuesday of next week at the latest. Problem is they are talking about another huge east coast storm Sunday or Monday here plus a pretty good chance of a snowstorm Wednesday night especially south of the NYC where I am. We had such a great peaceful winter until last weekend.

I did get MB to throw in the all weather mats in addition to the carpetted mats plus free maintenance service for the lease term.

houdini1

Charlie, I will just say that one of my concerns is that the U.S. needs to become more energy independent and for that reason I am very much for completing the pipeline.

imidazol97

>According to the article, the climatic and environmental effects would be huge if the project is completed.

Mostly a bunch of political positioning. When the article starts off with global warming and is in the Huffington Post, it's pretty much not reliable other than party rhetoric. Of course the pipeline should have been finished by now if it hadn't been used as a political ploy. We need the energy. Offshore has been stopped. More federal lands were placed off limits for drilling by what's-his-name. He and his can't stop the new sources of gas in the upper plains.

cyclone4

Mostly a bunch of political positioning. When the article starts off with global warming and is in the Huffington Post, it's pretty much not reliable other than party rhetoric.

Do you know this for a fact? If what it says in the article is true, would you still support the project at the risk of damaging the planet more than it has been already?

anthonyp

I sort of got the idea that the production of the product was where the additional pollution came from.....If the refined oil ,that is ultimately used, is more polluting then I would not be for the deal...

I wonder if the big companies really want this, as the `fracked` oil is said to make us almost oil independent...? They usually want the most profitable and easiest product....I am sure Caterpillar is for it :-)

I use an awful lot of diesel on the farm, and the price it pretty high....Buy two hundred gallons and the bill is seven hundred dollars.....The tank is a thousand gallons, and I use to fill it up all the time....I then began to wonder if the fuel was leaking out, or being stolen.....Fill it up now and the bill is a little South of four thousand....

I really don`t know what to think, as there are so many crosscurrents Tony

Kirstie_H

I might.

For me, the problem is that many have decided that one pro outweighs another con, ALWAYS. For example, reducing pollution is more important than the economic stability of oil independence - or vice versa - ALWAYS. The real solutions rarely lie at the extremes and often involve sacrifice.

Sure, exploring alternative energy sources is always the proposed solution, but how many of these alternative energy source units can you sell me today? None?

I'm not saying I am in favor of the project, but I'm certainly not basing my decision on a single perspective.

gagrice

I have read a lot of spin on both sides. Here is my humble take on the pipeline. They are proven safer than any other form of transport for oil and oil products. 2nd much of the oil will come from Canada oil sands. For refinement along the way. Some will be exported as finished product. That means jobs for US workers. My biggest concern is if Canada goes ahead with the plan to build a pipeline to the West Coast to sell oil to China, we will have a lot of foreign tankers going across the Pacific loaded with less than great crude oil. From what little I know of tar sands oil it is very heavy and much more likely to cause long term problems with an ocean oil spill. Not to mention we have a lot of oil in ND that will need to be transported to the refineries in OK & TX. Most of the Environmental opposition is to the Canadians producing tar sands oil. Like we have any real say. Canada has already told US either we buy it or they sell it to the Chinese.

robr2

I will just say that one of my concerns is that the U.S. needs to become more energy independent and for that reason I am very much for completing the pipeline.

How does buying oil from another country - albeit a friendly one - make the US more energy independent?

robr2

My biggest concern is if Canada goes ahead with the plan to build a pipeline to the West Coast to sell oil to China...

But as the article notes - the producers are having the same issue getting a pipeline built to the West coast. Their own country doesn't want it piped across their pristine land. Why should the United States take all the risk of environmental damage to help develop a foreign industry?

The issue comes down to the fact that without Keystone XL - or some other pipeline to get it to a refinery - it's not profitable to develop the tar sand oil.

Other solutions would be to increase the rail capacity to get the raw oil to refineries or perhaps build a refinery in Canada that can handle it.

houdini1

I don't have a problem with buying oil from Canada, Mexico, or any other country that is friendly to us. I have a big problem in sending our dollars to any country that is not friendly to us.

Why send our enemies money to buy guns to kill Americans? And why put them in a position to cut the supply of oil off if it suits their interests? These countries are the ones I want independence from.

That pipeline is a step in the right direction.

ljflx

If its in the Huffington Post it's not worth reading. They are like Krugman in the NY Times. A total waste of brain power to read.

gagrice

Other solutions would be to increase the rail capacity to get the raw oil to refineries or perhaps build a refinery in Canada that can handle it.

I think that is the solution that has Obama's ear. Warren Buffett has pushed that as he owns much of the railroads in the area. It is all politics. I think the Canadians will get a pipeline past the one person in one tribe that has made all the noise. Amazing how a few very noisy people can block so much progress. And jeopardize 1000s of jobs. Tar sands oil will be produced. Now or in the future. There are No real good alternatives to oil.

http://www.rbnenergy.com/west-coast-pipe-dreams-canadian-crude-oil-double-jeopar- dy

ljflx

Can't have independence without some risk. I'd have thought the revolutionary war taught us that. A lot of people who cry about risk here will cry why didn't we do something to make us more independent if something bad happens in the Middle East.

gagrice

If its in the Huffington Post it's not worth reading. They are like Krugman in the NY Times. A total waste of brain power to read.

Absolutely true. Sadly there are a lot of brain dead people that believe the lies and half truths. Unfortunately about 51% of the people believe the crap they spew out. I have even met a few people I consider relatively bright that read and believe such stuff.

cyclone4

Thank you all for your thoughtful remarks on this very important subject. Personally, I think this is an extremely difficult decision to be made by the President. I'm glad I don't have to make it.

anthonyp

On a further note, Bloomberg has a thorough article on Samsung......I liked the founder`s advice ` Get rid of everything but you wife and children and figure out what is going to help our company survive tomorrow` or something like that....

Apple is a fine company though, and just today something popped up on my computer that looked like it came from Apple....It wanted me to open it up and remove junk...I phoned Apple and very courteously that showed me how to get rid of it, and the spokesperson said she had the same thing happen to her....Reminded me why I came to Apple to start with......I think Tim Cook missed the boat today...

I saw an amazing mini movie on how they mad a BMW man I wish I knew how to share with everyone....Just amazing how the automation works, and the factory was primarily machines with a few people keeping an eye on things....I could see why they have such a fine car, and Len I am sure Mercedes is the same way...Lucky You :-) tony

circlew

Do you know this for a fact? If what it says in the article is true, would you still support the project at the risk of damaging the planet more than it has been already?

Well, look at it this way: The pipeline would help clean up what those damn dinosaurs did to the planet millions of years ago, dagnabit!!

Regards,
OW

anthonyp

As there is only one stock like Apple, all the different opinions will have to eventually take a back seat to those who speculate or even try to make an informed decision...

I am loosing confidence in the board of directors and it`s spokesman.....I think their first mission is to have the best product, and the second is to consider all their shareholders......It isn`t the Wild West out there, and personally I have had a very good relationship with their products, which has lead into an investment also (not large).....If they keep doing what they are doing, then that circle will get broken.....and people like me could drift off to other worthy products....

I sure hope they get in front of this , as they have on their products......Tony

cyclone4

Apple is a fine company though, and just today something popped up on my computer that looked like it came from Apple....It wanted me to open it up and remove junk...I phoned Apple and very courteously that showed me how to get rid of it, and the spokesperson said she had the same thing happen to her....Reminded me why I came to Apple to start with

Tony,

Was it a pop-up called MacKeeper? If so, I got the same thing several times. After I read about it, it became obvious to me that I should NOT downloaded it. Once you do it is very difficult to get rid of it. This is not an Apple malware program. It is from some other company which tries to force this crap on unsuspecting folks like you and me.

cyclone4

I am loosing confidence in the board of directors and it`s spokesman.....I think their first mission is to have the best product, and the second is to consider all their shareholders

Tony,

I do not feel the same way you do about the Board of Directors or Tim Cook. Look, most likely, they will increase the dividend for US in the shareholders meeting later this month. I DO NOT trust the David Einhorns of the world here. Instead, I will place my trust on Tim Cook. David Einhorn, as Len privately told me, cares about David Einhorn. My wife and I voted to go along with the Board of Directors recommendations.

anthonyp

Hi Charlie

I`m in full understanding of your position.....Mine is that the board and ceo owe the shareholders creative ways to bolster the stock, and keep the previously mentioned circle intact....Nothing to do with Einhorn......If they do that important job the Einhorns of the world won`t materialize.....

When the cfo who was trained by Jobs comes out and says they will return a paltry sum to shareholders over THREE years he undermined the shareholders, and I am right as the stock has declined.....After Einhorn blasted onto the scene Cook soothed people to a degree.....He now need to follow through in an manner that give some confidence that the future holds rewards as the company matures...

This is just my opinion and I have stated it a long time age, before investing in a beginning position......This has be a trying time for me and I know you long term fellows have had a rough road more recently.....I think for me the way the annual meeting is handled will either encourage me to invest more, or look for an exit.....Tony

cyclone4

Tony,

I believe you will find this article quite helpful. It explains Apple's position and thinking about dividends, share buybacks, potential purchases, shareholders, etc. for the present and future. As the article states, we need to remember that the available cash for Apple domestically is about $46 billion. The rest os overseas and has tremendous tax consequences.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183341-what-will-apple-do-with-that-cash?source- =yahoo