The Stock Market and Investing

anthonyp

I guess we have read numerous article like the one you sent...It is concise, and points out the need for the management to figure out ways to help the shareholder......If for example they increased the dividend in a meager fashion, the stock may continue in this roller-coaster fashion, and I personally would just not play the game......I would probably gamble on occasion on the earnings, but not in a meaningful way....

The company has good products a loyal following and should expand that to caring for the shareholder also......The traders may be disappointed but I personally am not interested in them.....The ball is in management`s court, and I expect them to increase the dividend to at least sixteen dollars a share....Just my opinion...Tony

anthonyp

One other thing, In my travels and shopping, I think things have begun to slow down....Just an early warning......Have you noticed anything like I mention? Tony

cyclone4

One other thing, In my travels and shopping, I think things have begun to slow down....Just an early warning......Have you noticed anything like I mention?

Tony,

In my recent travels to MA, OH, and MI, I have not seen any slowdown at all. I think the Detroit Auto Show may have had a record attendance for example. The housing industry in northeast OH was booming. Here in Des Moines, we did not get hit as hard as some other places during the incredible economic slide. But in any case, things seem to be going very well in central IA economically speaking.

anthonyp

Thanks for that thorough report.....I might may be premature , and it might just be a pre Spring thing , but I just see less activity from a couple of months ago, and some early barometers (people in different walks of life) just see a bit more accommodating ...Len probably purchased the car at a very good time Tony

ljflx

Not around here. If anything things are accelerating. Refi's are easier now so people are again drawing money out of their homes and I've noticed spending on improvements. I myself am doing a refi on a 2.625% 5/5 ARM with no closing costs (bank even pays title costs) and drawing some money out. One game that is going on is that more aggressive banks pay the credit agencies anytime a bank runs a credit score on you for a mortgage. So they get notified and depending on your credit score they will contact you to try to steal the mortgage. I'm getting 1-2 calls a day since I applied. What this tells me is the banks are loosening the restraints especially to the better credit scoring crowd.

ljflx

I leased it Tony. They are doing great deals. They are also doing great deals on the CL and CLS. One of those may be my next car. I've gotten some great deals from MB on the 2007 and 2010 GL450's and now on the S550. They are much more aggressive than Lexus on leasing perhaps because they are more aggressive on residuals. Lexus must make a lot when the car is turned in as well as upfront on the original lease.

gagrice

The ball is in management`s court, and I expect them to increase the dividend to at least sixteen dollars a share....Just my opinion...Tony

I think that is spot on at about 3%. My MCD has paid about 3% on a regular basis for 10 years now. I bought in at $14 and sold on our financial planners advice last year at $90.

http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/mcd/investors/stock_information/dividends.html

I am seeing the economy in So CA as you are seeing it. Very little building. Lots of empty strip malls. Foreclosures increasing. People with money starting to pick up the bank owned stuff. But about 50% of the population are on some sort of welfare or entitlement program and or do not pay any income tax. Not a good economy by past CA standards.

34% Of the nation’s welfare recipients live in California but only …

12%… of the U.S. population resides here.

Here is an example of the migration of those wanting a job. Our real unemployment in CA is over 20%.

Good indicators of the outward migration are the prices of U-Haul vehicles. To rent a 26-foot truck one-way from San Francisco to Austin costs $3236, and yet the one-way charge for that same truck from Austin to San Francisco is just $399. Even so, U-Haul has to pay its employees to drive the empty trucks back from Texas.

imidazol97

In west central Ohio the economy is still slowed. There are regions of the state which are doing better because they were hurt less by closings during the first recession. What I sense is a very tenuous balance for many people in the lower and middle income levels. The extra high gas prices now that the election is over is taking away money they might spend. I see more and more the lessening of income for middle and lower folks and the continuing high life for the high income folks who are spending away on houses and cars and other nonnecessities.

The media folks have tried to tell us how things are improving for this reason or that reason. Other than a lessening of new defaults on homes, I don't see a great housing market anywhere in this area other than a few high priced home areas.

The division between rich and poor is widening.

gagrice

Soros Said to Make $1 Billion Since November on Yen Bet

The Japanese wager helped the firm return about 10 percent last year and 5 percent so far this year, said the person, who asked not to be named because the firm is private. The yen has weakened 17 percent versus the dollar since about the start of the fourth quarter, the worst performance over a similar period since 1985.

This is NOT good news for the US manufacturing sector. It was the high priced Yen that made manufacturing Japanese cars in America profitable. Will we see a move back to Japan??

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/soros-said-to-make-1-billion-since-nove- mber-on-yen-bet.html

fintail

MB inflates their residuals to pretty amusing levels - far above market price. I don't know how they creatively account their way out of it at the end of the term. MB and BMW leases are pretty decent right now, there's a chance I might do some aggressive dickering on a lease pretty soon too - cheapest rates I have seen on some cars. Only hesitation is that I haven't had a car payment in years - but I have a slight itch to try something new, and maybe a lease would cure me of my tendency to become attached to a car.

Regarding economic activity, things seem to be humming along OK here in the eastern Seattle suburbs. Plenty of people shopping, Costco was a zoo last Sunday, my building has only one vacancy.

cyclone4

Our friend GS300?? (from Canada), introduced us to this stock (QLIK) back about 2-3 years ago. I know that TagMan and myself (possibly a few others) bought it at the IPO. We made good money on it but I know that I sold it for good at something like $26-27 back ion the day. Well they had a good quarter and the stock jumped more than $4 this morning to a level just above $27. I am just mentioning it since it brought back memories. I remember that GS was going to buy the Lexus LFA with all the money he was to make on this stock. Perhaps he will chime in after a long absence. Maybe even TagMan will shock us and say "hello" once again.

This is an excerpt from a Barron's article this morning:

Shares of Qlik Technologies (QLIK) are up $4.38, or 19%, at $27.16 after the company last night reported Q4 revenue and profit per share that was higher than analysts were expecting, and projected this year’s results ahead of expectations as well. The stock got two upgrades to the equivalent of Buy, from RBC Capital and Susquehanna.

anthonyp

I may not have expressed exactly what I meant in a slight slowdown......We`v had a miraculous recovery from just a few years ago, and as we all expressed back then, it was a bad time....Now the activity here is on a high plane--houses selling, people shopping and the streets pretty well full of prosperous looking people....I just recently began to sense a slight slowing from that pace----just an opinion, based on just how I perceived things.....Certainly no real slowdown, just a pause sort of thing.......I mention this, as if it begins to show up in actual numbers, we may very well have a pullback in the market....Certainly not something I want to see....:)

One other thing is we have had a gracious plenty of rain here in Charleston the last few days.....something that is most welcome as we have had a very dry winter so far...Tony

gagrice

I wish our economy looked better. I don't see a lot of improvement over the last 4 years. We are losing businesses at a higher rate than we are gaining them. I think Real Estate has hit bottom. I am NOT optimistic. Those of us on a good pension or high paying job it seems fine. I see too many homeless and have too many friends looking for work and losing their homes.

February 15, 2013 by Cheryl Getuiza
Business leaders say California must improve business climate to keep them
Is it time for California to step up its game and to roll out the red carpet to businesses? According to a new survey, released by the California Business Roundtable, the answer is a resounding YES.

The organization surveyed more than 1,100 large and small business leaders across all regions of California on their perspectives on the state's jobs and business climate.

Here are some highlights:

· 62 percent rated California's economy worse than the rest of the country

· 69 percent say it's harder to do business in California than any other state

· 54 percent of those with companies with operations in other states were more optimistic on the economy versus 39 percent California only companies

· 26 percent say the results of the 2012 election will have a positive impact on expanding investment and jobs while 51 percent say it will have a negative impact

"The overall outlook for 2013 is clearly one of caution regarding jobs and investment with 24 percent of California companies surveyed planning to add jobs, 16 percent planning to cut jobs and 55 percent planning to stay on their current course," said Robert Lapsley, President of the California Business Roundtable.

http://www.caeconomy.org/reporting/entry/business-leaders-say-california-must-im- prove-business-climate-to-keep-them

cdnpinhead

Maybe even TagMan will shock us and say "hello" once again.

Interesting concept.

I'm thinking pigs will fly first.

cyclone4

I'm thinking pigs will fly first.

Haven't we seen flying pigs on a commercial ;-)?

anthonyp

I agree that there are still many people stuck in a partial employment situation, and things are not rosy for them.....but also there are a lot fewer of them than a few years ago....

Strangely the news I have read about California has had an upbeat sound to it.....Sort of getting their deficit under control, and a general overall improvement in housing , employment etc....I know the news media can slant that any way they want, but that is the slant I perceive ...

I really only can relay what I personally observe here in the South ...and what I recently feel is a slight slow down.....Honestly it could be just Pre-Spring pause, and I will be the first to report back if I am mistaken.....

I hope things change in your section----soon----:-) Tony

gagrice

I think most of the South weathered the recession quite well. With the exception of Florida. I look at the real unemployment rate. We have areas of CA that are up close to 30% unemployed. That means the rest of the country are feeding them and caring for them. The U6 rate in CA is higher than all but NV. And Los Angeles is higher than Nevada. We also have 3 large cities that filed for bankruptcy.

U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

This says a lot about the economic health of CA:

Good indicators of the outward migration are the prices of U-Haul vehicles. To rent a 26-foot truck one-way from San Francisco to Austin costs $3236, and yet the one-way charge for that same truck from Austin to San Francisco is just $399. Even so, U-Haul has to pay its employees to drive the empty trucks back from Texas.

ljflx

He'd be happy to see my S550 comments.

ljflx

Einhorn's position that Apple s/b able to create preferred shares anytime it wants to vs Apple's position that it wants shareholder approval before craeting such shares is absurd. Which one do you think is better for shareholders? The ability to create preferred shares anytime you want is an anti-takeover defense. But Apple realizes that there's virtually no chance of it ever being taken over so what it wants to do is pro shareholder. Einhorn is really trying to get the company to increase cash to sharholders. That's good and he'll probably get his way. That'll bring in a new class of value buyers and one or two better than expected growth quarters will have the momentum crowd buying back in. From my perspective I don't want Einhorn's proposal but I want him to keep pressuring Apple and stay in the news.

gagrice

This is what I am seeing in So CA. Did our Costco run on Monday. There were no lines and the check out guy was surprised as school was out for Lincoln's B'day.

“In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February MTD sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, Wal- Mart’s vice president of finance and logistics, said in a Feb. 12 e-mail to other executives, referring to month-to-date sales. “The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/wal-mart-executives-sweat-slow-february- -start-in-e-mails.html

imidazol97

> Costco run on Monday. There were no lines and the check out

Lots of unemployment here. The govrmt numbers don't really portray the depth because they've been changed through the years to under report, just as inflation figures are under reported. Many people are in job far below their qualifications being underpaid and in parttime jobs at much lower pay and benefits. The middle class is disappearing because those jobs are being lost and not being replaced.

Many have gone on SSI when our unemployment subsidies ran out after as much as two years. The SSI program runs out of money in 2 or 3 years (I may have the number wrong, but it's in the near future) because so many more people have been successful in getting that "free" money.

High gasoline costs are using up money from the family's budgets for people on limited and lower incomes as well as middle income folks with high expenses. I see the media push the last few weeks to paint things as improving based mostly on fewer houses going into bankruptcy and being handed back to the mortgage companies. But I don't believe the media's effort to affect the public's attitude about the state of the economy.

The positive things I do see is a high level of long distance trucking continuing (I'm at the confluence of I-70 and I-75, major trade routes). I don't know if that's a leading or lagging indicator. Some of that traffic has trucks with large equipment on them indicating business investing in improvements or new pieces for their factories.

anthonyp

I think aapl should be coming up with ways to tone down the stock by returning a decent amount of earnings to the shareholders.....I imagine you and Charlie have more shares than I, and you guys deserve to be rewarded for your diligence...

I feel like the guy who bet on a horse that was suppose to return five to one if it won---and it did---but they then said the return would be cut back...You guys deserve the payout NOW not five years in the future ...:-)

I just would like to have a decent investment in aapl but not with the gyrations that seem to be encouraged by management`s lack of regard for the serious investor.....and further the offshore earnings seem to be of no value, the way it has been reported....That`s crazy....Tony

fintail

I think a lot of this somewhat invisible recovery is going to be very regional, just as the wealth gains of the past decade have been very concentrated among a select socio-demographic. Some areas will remain healthy or come back, and some will continue to stagnate or decay. Southern CA or some rust belt areas might not fare well.

Gas prices sure aren't helping, either.

anthonyp

Well one gallon in a chain saw will wear you out......That example shows how much can be done if the fuel is employed in a really productive way Now a car is sort of a waste, but we pay for what we want....Believe me I do agree with you that fuel is extra expensive....Tony

ljflx

Picked up the S550 on Saturday. The car is absolutely spectacular.

fintail

Or a gallon in a gas leaf blower will wear your neighbors out :shades:

Cars are more efficient than ever, and gas is getting up there. Maybe not a coincidence.

fintail

Congrats.

And on that note, today I took advantage of a cheap MB lease too:



The deal was too good to pass up. My first new car, and of course my first lease. I've always bought ~4-5 year old depreciated used, but I guess I wanted to live a little, and I like this car.

ljflx

Congrats Fin. Same color and panorama roof as I have so I naturally love that look. You'll never forget your first new car and the fact that it's a lux car and a Mercedes at that makes it all the more special. Enjoy! You work hard so enjoy the things that effort brings you.

cyclone4

Fintail and Len,

Congratulations to both of you. It is an awesome looking car with all the luxury to boot. Hopefully, I will be able to join you with a new car later this year. As recently as 6months to a year ago, it would have been unthinkable for me to buy anything but a Lexus. However, my feelings have changed a lot in recent months. An MB is definitely on my list now. It appears to me that Lexus is falling behind in both technology and looks. I sure hope that AAPL has a big time rally the next 6 months or so. That will make my decision to buy a new car MUCH easier.

fintail

Thanks, I appreciate that sentiment. If I was really fiscally responsible, I'd buy a used Rio and drive it til it drops - but life is too short. I don't splurge on a lot other than occasional vacations, which I will do less for awhile. Gotta have the experience at least once.

Lease deal was good, like on your S. 63K MSRP, 3500 down, ~560/month (+ tax of course) - and they gave me a fair enough trade in for the old car. The insurance is less than on my 2002 model, as well. Why not.

gagrice

You can take a driving vacation and see the USA in your pretty new Mercedes.

fintail

The Germans are really subsidizing their leases right now, esp MB and BMW. Some attractive deals, if one doesn't mind kind of renting the car.

I will be getting a check from the old car - still haven't decided how I will invest it. I think I will put it away and occasionally add to it, make it a "car fund".

fintail

I know I will eventually be headed to eastern WA and OR, anyway. I want to hit that magical 40mpg.

gagrice

I think you will find that an easy target if you don't drive like you're on the autobahn.

fintail

I'm a calm driver - hard to go over 70 in a lot of places around here anyway. Will be interesting to see what I'll be able to do.

I notice it is a few hundred pounds heavier, and definitely larger than my old E.

houdini1

Fin, great car, great lease ! Congrats! Is it a diesel?

houdini1

Congrats on a great car. As you get it broken I, it will be interesting to see how you compare it to your previous Lexus experiences. They are different cars and each has it's strong and weak points. I am still on the Lexus side of the discussion but I agree that Lexus needs to up the ante on the flagship LS.

cyclone4

Fintail, I forgot to ask earlier. What model is your car? It looks like an S550.

fintail

Yep, diesel. I've been wanting to try one for several years.

fintail

E350 Bluetec - an S would be too rich for my blood. Actually, normal financing on the E would make me uncomfortable too. But this is doable, and should be fun.

gagrice

So at the end of the Lease, you still love the car. Would it save you overall to buy it at that time vs buying now? I have never leased a vehicle.

anthonyp

Good news for you and Len----Such an exciting time , and it come so rarely......I`m like Charlie, maybe later this year......My excuse is I just purchased an excavator, and that was expensive....I did get to write it all off at one shot....Feeling like I have spoiled myself already although after the tax write off you can`t get an excavator as cheaply ever again.....Tony

fintail

I haven't done numbers, but it could be cheaper, as the market value depreciation is pretty steep, and you are paying for a value loss based their inflated residual rate. Of course, if they try to have you pay that inflated residual value, it might not work.

I've never leased before either, and I didn't study it too much.

anthonyp

I`m of your same opinion, but times are changing.....One of my problems is if I were to die, the last thing I would want to leave is an expensive car.....So I have about decided to do a lease...It just makes sense, but now the question of how long? Man I feel good, but you never know.....I`v also never leased anything, so that is going to be a new challenge to figure out...Tony

ljflx

They almost always want the cars back so they don't deal unless the model is unpopular. I had two family members take my cars at lease end and getting Lexus to let me do that was like pulling teeth. There's a huge second market for the cars. In the past it was only slightly better to buy over leasing because you basically paid money for the lease application fee and a small premium in the lease. I often worked the math to be about $1-2K on the LS cars, lease fee included. So in effect you paid that amount to decide if you wanted to buy after 3 years or have the luxury of taking a new lease. It all depends on the interest rate that you use and what you can do with the money that you don't use as principal for the car. Is it worth that prenium for a decision you can make later after experience with the car rather than now? For me - yes. For others maybe not. To each his own.

fintail

It's nice not to have to worry about repairs either - and the prepaid maintenance seemed to be a fair deal. I might end up being addicted to this - there's certainly a rush with a brand new car.

Like was said, the company often wants the cars back - I know my car being a diesel will be sought after at the end of the term. Worst case, I get a loyalty incentive, cough up a couple grand, and lease a new version.

cyclone4

They almost always want the cars back so they don't deal unless the model is unpopular.

This is SO true. When our one payment lease on the 2010, RX 450h that my wife drives was finished back in June of 2012, we decided to buy it. It was a 3 year lease set up in June, 2009. We paid about half the cost of the car in 2009 and the rest last June. The Lexus folks did not at all appear happy that we were going to keep the car by paying out the amount due. The car is worth several $thousand more than what we owed back in June, so no wonder they were hoping that we would not keep the car.

anthonyp

Come on Len----Don`t keep the new car experience only for yourself share ..Tony

gagrice

It was inevitable for Apple computers to fall victim to hackers. When they were such a small percentage it was not worth the effort for the miscreants of the hacker World to bother. With growing numbers they will soon be hit like Windows machines have been over the last two decades.

Hackers hit Apple in cyberassault

The same hackers that hit Facebook’s computers on Friday infected the computers of some Apple employees, the company acknowledged Tuesday.

The incident, the widest known cyberattack against Apple-made computers to date, occurred when the Apple employees browsed to a special website that had been infected with malware custom-written for the Macintosh platform

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2013/02/19/hackers-hit-apple-computers-in-cyberassau- lt/

ljflx

The car is beautiful. The only thing I'm trying to figure out is whether I have a setting wrong with the headlights. In auto mode the highbeams shutdown then go back on. But I don't have the automatic highbeam off feature that shuts them when it detects headlights on the other side of the road. If I put the headlights in the on mode it doesn't happen to me. I absolutely love the car. I love the interior ambient lighting that bathes the cabin and becomes noticable more at night. Lexus didn't have this. The car rides like a dream (smoother and quieter than the LS), has excellent handling and driver feedback, great acceleration, a gorgeous interior and makes you feel like a king or queen in the case of my wife. I love the AMG wheels and lower AMG bodyclad moulding and anyone that has seen the car when I parked it has stared at it or complimented me on it because the AMG add on makes it really stand out. Also MB's diamond white is a very rich white color and I can easily see the difference to the polar white on my GL. I think it's a timeless car. It also rides a lot nicer than the past generation S-class. I think when MB upgraded to the now defunct Maybach they did something that improved the S-class from my experience of driving this car and the previous gen S-class. There's a lot of Maybach in this car and as much as it's a $109K sticker price car it actually feels like a more expensive car than that.

Pix:

http://i52.tinypic.com/i59gd3.jpg

http://i56.tinypic.com/2czpjqv.jpg

http://i51.tinypic.com/2drig7d.jpg