The Stock Market and Investing

anthonyp

Charlie, the best article on no dividend is in Berkshire`s annual letter.....I don`t agree with Mr. Buffet as I don`t have enough money to make that scenario work for me, but do endorse the dividend , and increases in it, as does Mr Buffet....for everyone but his company

For many years I have said you long term investors earn every penny you get....I`m not in your category as of yet, but would like to be----that`s why I follow the stock so closely now---but I would have to trust the management to be aware of the shareholders, and not let this type of thing develop...This is what stock splits and dividend increased can accomplish......along with good press management....

My Lord they had such a good opportunity at the annual meeting, but the board must have just not given Mr Cook any leeway, or anything.....in fact it was hardly covered by the press.....Why I would ask? and the answer is there was not news...Tony

ljflx

Good story here on a stock price strategy for Apple management:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1255071-apple-time-for-shock-and-awe

anthonyp

A good perspective---touching on many of the things I have said......It does seem overly complex on some of the other ideas on returning successful earnings to loyal shareholders...

There are only a very few extraordinary companies I have seen over my career , and I hate to see something so badly handled .....Even if I don`t ever buy another share I just hate to see this......it reminds me of the first , and that was ibm ---when it ran into problems it took decades to make a comeback.....

I`v been studying up on the leasing aspects and money factor etc....Sort of hate to get involved with any dealership , as they are treacherous---meaning they will come up with a deal overnight that could be too tempting Thanks for the article---Tony

cyclone4

Tony, here is a story about the Chinese telecoms that would have HUGE potential for AAPL growth.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/07/is-this-the-makings-of-another-- massive-apple-win-i.aspx

cyclone4

Len, how are you coping with this latest Nor'easter? There has been more damage along the coast. This afternoon they have been getting off and on heavy snow and very strong winds in eastern MA. The snow will continue well into tomorrow. Some spots will get a foot or more tonight and tomorrow morning.

ljflx

Just a lot of wind here and more beach erosion at the coast. Today winds were much lower. We had light rain yesterday and light snow at night with no accumulation and on and off light snow and rain today. Typical March storm. They expect 1-4" locally tonight. But mid 50's by Saturday. I don't envy New England. It will get warm after this storm there too. Snow piles looks mighty ugly to me in spring warmth.

ljflx

Tony,

A good site to view for lease deals or buys.

http://www.fleetrates.com/inventory/details.asp?vehicleInventory=WDDEJ9EB9DA0307- 18

anthonyp

Thanks

ljflx

Charlie - they lied. The 1-3" has instead been near 6" and this would have been a foot or more in December, Jan or Feb. New England also getting hit harder than advertised. Amazing how persistent and long the snow bands have been. Usually in an ocean storm that backs into New England via a trough we get flurries at best. Instead there are snow amounts here that rival or even beat some of the lower totals in central and eastern New England. What's saving us from really getting hammered is temps around freezing and the high sun angle.

cyclone4

It truly is amazing how far west the heavy snow has backed. I can tell you that parts of the Boston area are now close to TWO feet. It's snowing very hard there but it will come to an and later this afternoon.

robr2

About 12" of heavy, wet heart attach snow here NW of Boston.

Going out with the snowblower in a few minutes.

ljflx

Still snowing pretty hard here and 32 degrees but it's tough to accumulate in the daytime in March. The snow is getting deeper in shady areas and deeply snowcovered areas but is compacting in what would be sunny areas. Basically about 6-6.5" of snow on my deck and about 4" on the driveway. 50+ temps over the weekend and upper 50's early next week will make it long forgotten even in Boston. But already there's a rumor about another storm next Friday. I want spring!

One thing I'll tell you though is the Mercedes AWD is much more secure feeling than the Lexus AWD. I reluctantly drove it this morning in the snow just to test it out. Even on heavily treated roads that were just wet you could feel the better grip of the road. My street is a royal pain in snow as you need to go uphill and then on the return it's a braking nightmare. It gets even worse deeper in the cul-de-sac and even snow plows have gotten stuck there on the curve.

MB advertises it's AWD as the best in the business. I would imagine Audi's is right with it since they perfected AWD but I must say if you want an AWD car the Benz is the way to go.

cyclone4

A little to your south over by Gillette Stadium and even in the Brockton/Stoughton area I believe has close to 2 feet. I can confirm 19 inches in Taunton which is located about 20-25 miles south of Brockton.

cyclone4

One thing I'll tell you though is the Mercedes AWD is much more secure feeling than the Lexus AWD. I reluctantly drove it this morning in the snow just to test it out. Even on heavily treated roads that were just wet you could feel the better grip of the road. My street is a royal pain in snow as you need to go uphill and then on the return it's a braking nightmare. It gets even worse deeper in the cul-de-sac and even snow plows have gotten stuck there on the curve.

MB advertises it's AWD as the best in the business. I would imagine Audi's is right with it since they perfected AWD but I must say if you want an AWD car the Benz is the way to go.

I cant't wait until I can seriously think about the MB (I never thought I would have said this 2-3 years ago). AAPL must reach at least $650 before I buy a new car. Go AAPL! It will get there in less than a year.

ljflx

Charlie,

This is from your friends at Mt Holly who have been badly trailing this storm rather than being ahead of it with their forecasts. I'm in one of these bands and this is the heaviest snow of the day that I've seen.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS...

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACCUMULATION RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA RESULTING IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING DRIVING CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAVE EXTRA TIME TO MAKE IT TO YOUR DESTINATION.

anthonyp

The Audi has some very good 4 wheel drive characteristics, probably the best of any car, but I would not imagine we could really tell any difference....
Went by Audi today and they still had a A8 that was last years model--discounted by say sixteen thousand, but it was a long base, and didn`t have the stuff I would want....particularly the seat....Still tried to pawn it off on me no deal....I really dislike trying to buy a new car, but this is the process..
I do want to wait and see the new Mercedes S, and for some reason just can`t visualize myself getting a bmw 6 with the six cylinder engine...I wan the six in an Audi, and better fuel milage....just can`t do it in a bmw.....Tony ps enjoy the wonderful pure snow...We don`t get it at all often...

cyclone4

Tony,

Here is a potentially very bullish story on AAPL:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/analyst-dont-worry-apple-has-room-to-grow.htm- l/?ref=YF

anthonyp

Hi Charlie---I bet you are jealous of all the fellows getting `snow` Don`t feel bad, I`m not getting any either, and as a bonus, while out walking to get a tractor moved, there was a different feeling in the day, one that I associate with Spring....Still on the cool side but with those occasional warmer gusts of air....It has been a miserable month so far..

I`m waiting, just like you, for Apple to do anything to recognize the plight of the shareholder....I guess it is their `game` but I would like to be a player....Hope they encourage that---but if they don`t the stock still will have a strong rally , and I think soon.....I just hope the underlying reasons are the managements decisions that build trust in the management...I have no problem with the products, just the management...Tony

gagrice

When we left the restaurant from breakfast this morning it was heavy sleet that covered the roads and vehicles. We were at the 1500 foot level just East of San Diego. Did not get to 50 again today. We are averaging about 15 degrees below normal this Winter.

Just watching the ticker and someone after hours sold/bought 648,000 shares of AAPL. That is about $279 million. A bull and a bear with lots of money to spend.

anthonyp

Fifteen degrees is a huge variant, no matter where.....I`v experienced forty degree drops on occasion as a front rolls through, but an average fifteen degrees for a long period of time is alarming

That block could represent someone just shuffling cards in this topsy turvy world..Unfortunately as I see it, the powers that be want Apple to continue to be very volatile....Big bets either way....Tony

cyclone4

We are averaging about 15 degrees below normal this Winter.

I have not done the research to check it out yet, but I would be more than stunned if San Diego was actually averaging 15 degrees colder than normal for the entire winter. That would be the RECORD COLD to end all record cold winters. I could believe maybe 5-7 degrees colder than normal but there is no way it was 15 degrees colder than normal.

gagrice

Well we did have the coldest July on record according to the NWS. I will have to wait and see. I keep track of the temps on my porch. What gets me is the NWS RAWS site that is very close by reports 10-15 degrees warmer than at my home Our night time temps are normal or slightly above normal. It is our day time highs that are not near what they should be. When the ambient does not get over 52 degrees we have to use our furnace to keep the house at 65 degrees. My last two months have cost me $400+ per month for propane. I can remember many years never running the furnace all winter long. San Diego proper had some frost this winter which is very rare for them. We are 30 miles inland at the 2000 ft level so get a wider variation. We have only had one day of frost this winter. Just does not warm up during the day. Very unusual. And the only good reason to live in Ca is the weather. All I am saying is it should get up to 65 most days and we have had weeks straight without the temps going over 50-52 degrees. If you trust what the NWS says I got a bridge to sell you.

ljflx

We are averaging about 15 degrees below normal this Winter.

Unless you live in an area of extremes (say Fairbanks Alaska) that is just about impossible. Usually if you have a string of cold days you have warmer nights. You go by the average temperature not the daytime high temperature departure. Some people prefer to average the 24 hour temps which would give a more precise temperature vs the mean. But if you were 15 degrees below normal with a daily high of 52 then you'd have to have a low temperature every morning that was also 15 degrees below normal so in the 30's. I highly doubt the San Diego area had continuous low in the 30's.

In extreme areas like Fairbanks you can more easily have a 15 degree departure either warmer or colder. I once tracked weeks of temps there that were -50 to -60 at night and -40 to -50 during the day. I'd bet that period was 20-30 degrees below normal for them.

gagrice

I highly doubt the San Diego area had continuous low in the 30's.

Absolutely right. I did mention the low temps are near normal other than the frost a few days in San Diego proper and along the coast. That still does not address the unusually cold day time temperatures. I have lived in San Diego off and on for 60+ years and never remember it being this cold during the day in the winter. When you are used to 70s during the day all winter long and they do not get to 55 for weeks on end it gives cause for wonder. Here from the NWS yesterday. This is how it has looked much of this winter.

History & Almanac
Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal (KRNM) 66 °F 39 °F
Record (KRNM) 86 °F (2004) 33 °F (2000)
Yesterday 51 °F 42 °F

anthonyp

Well is some respects I know what you are talking about....It has been a miserable half of Feb and nine days so far in Mar. here In CharlestonSC.....It sure feels like we are missing fifteen degrees...I had no idea San Diego was so cold...I though it was the perfect temperature sort of place...My idea of perfect temp is cool at night and a high of eighty in the later part of the afternoon....51and 42 would be miserable imo

Tony :-)

gagrice

51and 42 would be miserable imo

Exactly my point. When you are used to wearing shorts and T-shirt most of the winter, this is unacceptable. Sacramento has carried their war on GW & CO2 way too far. :shades:

anthonyp

I doubt Sacramento has anything to do with it---probably God----and in our case the ocean rules Tony

gagrice

I doubt Sacramento has anything to do with it---probably God----and in our case the ocean rules

Actually I believe the Sun has more to do with our weather than any other factor.

The calm before the solar storm? NASA warns 'something unexpected is happening to the Sun'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-hap- pening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html

ljflx

Well the family wants to go to a place that undoubtedly will be very hot at the end of June or in early July. So my question is has anyone stayed at the Belaggio in Vegas. I'm going to need a suite. It's our first choice, second is the Mirage and third is Wynn. I haven't been to Vegas since 1989 when they were testing the volcano at the Mirage just before it opened. I love Vegas and had been there 5X before that last 1989 trip.

Tony - May also come down to Myrtle late in the month of July.

gagrice

The Belaggio and Wynn are first rate hotels. The Mirage is more fun IMO with all the extras. More for kids than the others. Mirage is also older as the first real mega hotel casino on the strip. So many great hotels. My little sister worked at the Belaggio so I am partial. It is beautiful. For great shops I like the Venetian. I could stroll through all of them for days. We quit going when my sister moved to AZ. Better pay in the Indian casinos.

michaellno

I'll second the Bellagio. Stayed there for our 10th anniversary and had a great time.

I would say that it's less kid friendly than other properties on the strip.

ljflx

My wife wants the Billagio so it will win. Mirage has some great deals though. The Wynn looks like the ultimate place to stay - especially at Wynn's Encore resort right next to it. I'm hesitant to go to the Venetian but it also looks great. Incredible for me to think back to the days my closest friend and I stayed at Circus Circus in a beautful room for $16 a night. A weeks stay cost me $56.

Given the greatness of the S550 I'd rather drive there than fly. But Fly I will.

ljflx

Excellent story in today's NY Times (biased toward the liberal view of course) about the legalese on the Awlaki killing. The Times in this story touches but avoids the more interesting story of how Obama is faced with the same issues that Bush was faced with and made similar decisions. My interest there has nothing to do with the people involved and has everything to do with a person put int the presedential decision seat, who has to take an opposite view of what he would have espoused if he were in Congress. The Times leans toward a view that would not have shot down Awlaki with a drone but does it very cautiously because Obama, not Bush is in the Whithouse. It sickens me that we even have a discussion about a man who declared his own country a wartime enemy. The moment he does that either orally or through acts (in this case both) his citizenship and rights as one should be ended immediately. Instead he's written about as if he was an ordinary citizen and the rights of the US to protect its real citizens are to be foregone because the enemy is also a citizen. Ridiculous. There's an easy way around this and that is to abolish the citizenship of a person who declares himself an enemy, commits acts that follow such a doctrine and even worse does so overseas where his capture for trial is virtually impossible. Whether its a Dem or Rep in the Whitehouse who uses common sense to go after such a man in such a matter is irrelevant among the biases of people who later question the act and challenge the Presiden't authority to protect his country. I'm not an Obama fan but in this case I'd fight to the end for him and the decision he made.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/world/middleeast/anwar-al-awlaki-a-us-citizen-- in-americas-cross-hairs.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

cyclone4

Well the family wants to go to a place that undoubtedly will be very hot at the end of June or in early July. So my question is has anyone stayed at the Belaggio in Vegas.

Len, I would have responded sooner but I have been too busy the past couple days. My wife and I stayed at the Bellagio in 2005 and we absolutely loved it. I also enjoyed playing low stakes poker on several evenings. Here is an an amazing but true story. Just behind us, in the enclosed glass room, there was the very high stakes poker room. Lo and behold, guess who one of the players was in that room? Alex Rodriguez. One of the players who joined my table was a famous World Series of Poker guy (can't remember his name now). He joined us just for the fun of it with no stress in our table. He said that A-rod just lost $500K in the high stakes room. To A-rod, that was probably pocket change I suppose, but I know for a fact that he has/had a major gambling problem.

anthonyp

I think I may have something on the apparent manipulation we all have observed over the years....I think with the `options` and shorts and other devices that, instead of aapl having say nine hundred + million shares out there, it may be more like a billion two or so....Of course two or three hundred million are just fictitious , but are used never the less to `goose` the stock....it`s all paid for with very cheap margin, the kind we regular people can`t touch...so when the stock has a genuine change in direction, then it will be shot higher---which we like---but it would be nice to not have such volatility....Tony ps Len I`m with you ---betray us and then expect to be killed.....Hell I would be shot if I drove down the road recklessly , and would shoot anyone threatening my love ones or me..I sure don`t want to think like that, but the service I trained in while in the military taught me how to follow orders, and there was absolutely no question I would have done what I was told to do---with the uniform on---This isn`t bravado on my part,and I would probably be sick to my stomach, but so what

houdini1

-betray us and then expect to be killed.....Hell I would be shot if I drove down the road recklessly , and would shoot anyone threatening my love ones or me..I sure don`t want to think like that, but the service I trained in while in the military taught me how to follow orders, and there was absolutely no question I would have done what I was told to do---with the uniform on---This isn`t bravado on my part,and I would probably be sick to my stomach, but so what

Tony, at times you surprise me...in a very good way ! I agree with you 100%.

After living in a foreign enemy country for years, killing Americans, and plotting to kill more, this guy should have already been relieved of his U.S. citizenship...so we really didn't kill a U.S. citizen at all.

ljflx

Charlie - AROD is well known for participating in high sakes illegal poker games in NYC.

cyclone4

Len, I just read the article and I totally agree with you. Why waste time on a scum like this who wanted nothing else but destroy this great nation?

gagrice

Is this part of the reason?

iPhone facing its biggest threat yet with the launch of new Samsung Galaxy which could be controlled by the eyes

The Samsung S4 launch will be on Wednesday
Rumoured features include wireless charging and 'eye scroll' screen

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2291164/iPhone-facing-biggest-threat-lau- nch-new-Samsung-Galaxy-controlled-eyes.html

fintail

I've now set up a Vanguard account, but haven't moved any car money into it (got sidetracked last week). Does anyone think with this somewhat insane market, that I might not want to buy into anything tied to an index right now? This upswing can't last forever, right? I need to do something with the money rather than keep it in savings or checking.

laurasdada

Checking in from about 7 miles nw of Gillette, two feet + of snow when it finally decided to stop! Absolutely gorgeous, although the plantings in front of my house look none too happy.

And, the XK is just sliding around in the garage, reminding me to dare not try to drive it! Actually, between Ma Nature and our fine town plowing services, I drove it to work today. Last winter, I got away with it. This winter has me thinking I should grow up and trade the Jag in on a pair of sensible shoes. Which, of course, is what I traded in for the Jag!

Only a few more weeks, then the world should be safer for 275/35/19 Summer tires. Daughter goes to college in the fall and the old awd Lexus is mine to sled the white gold!

laurasdada

You could setup an initial position, then dollar cost average in each month... No, the bull will not roar forever, but given your youth, in the words of the poet, The Rolling Stones, time is on your side.

cyclone4

Checking in from about 7 miles nw of Gillette, two feet + of snow when it finally decided to stop! Absolutely gorgeous, although the plantings in front of my house look none too happy.

Great to hear from you Dada. Amazingly, I would say that you only live about 10 miles north of my brother who lives in Norfolk. I figured that 2 feet of very heavy, wet snow is what you would get from that amazing storm. What is even more amazing is that a place like Providence and basically all of the southern 2/3 of RI only got a measly 2-5 inches from that storm. Even nearby Taunton (east southeast of Providence in southeastern MA) had about 20 inches. There was about 2 feet to the north to the east and to the west of RI. Why there was a hole in much of RI is a question that I believe will never be properly answered. The bands of heavy snow were moving from east to west. But for some weird reason, they would dry up as they reached RI and intensify like crazy again as they reached eastern CT. I bet there will be scientific papers written on this phenomenon, but I don't think they will be able to properly answer it.

It sounds like you are having a good time. That's awesome.

cyclone4

Is this part of the reason?

iPhone facing its biggest threat yet with the launch of new Samsung Galaxy which could be controlled by the eyes

The Samsung S4 launch will be on Wednesday
Rumoured features include wireless charging and 'eye scroll' screen

This has been talked about the past several weeks but I doubt this is THE reason for AAPL nosediving the past few months.

More importantly, AAPL was trading $4-6 lower much of the session today and then all of a sudden it is trading $4-6+ higher. The link below says "for no apparent reason. However, I bet there is a reason and it will come out shortly.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/03/11/whats-up-with-aapl-2/?mod=ya- - - hoobarrons

EDIT: Here are a couple of stories just released.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100543299?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par- - =yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-iphone-5s-rumored-fingerprint-191420941.html- -

gagrice

Why would a billionaire reside in states like CA, IL or NY???

John Paulson, a lifelong New Yorker, is exploring a move to Puerto Rico, where a new law would eliminate taxes on gains from the $9.5 billion he has invested in his own hedge funds, according to four people who have spoken to him about a possible relocation.

Ten wealthy Americans have already taken advantage of the year-old Puerto Rican law that lets new residents pay no local or U.S. federal taxes on capital gains, according to Alberto Baco Bague, Secretary of Economic Development and Commerce of Puerto Rico. The marginal tax rate for affluent New Yorkers can exceed 50 percent on ordinary income.

Paulson, 57, recently looked at real estate in the exclusive Condado neighborhood of San Juan, where an 8,379- square-foot penthouse, complete with six underground parking spaces, lists for $5 million. The area is home to St. John’s School, a private English-language academy where he and his wife could send their two children, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/paulson-said-to-explore-puerto-rico-as-- home-with-low-tax.html

fintail

PR has been establishing itself as another tax haven in the Caribbean - this one even more subsidized by the American taxpayer (including those in CA, NY, IL, even WA, SC, MA et al) than the rest of them. In other words, you and I are helping to pay for it.

I am surprised the expatriation of wealth doesn't yet receive draconian penalties - eventually it will, and maybe should. Not that it would be anything to cry about, the hedge fund industry isn't known for great ethics, Paulson and his friends should probably be happy we haven't evolved to the point of having capital punishment for financial crimes.

fintail

I want something I can just put the money in and forget about it, using it as a future car fund. I set up my account tonight, chose a fund, put in some of the money (waiting for the check to clear) and will complete it tomorrow when I will look at other funds. If I can simply average maybe 5%, I will be happy, anything more is great - I want at least stability rather than risk.

cdnpinhead

I want at least stability rather than risk.

Amazing -- an actual investment discussion as opposed to all Apple all the time.

Either way, you should consider a balanced approach which involves both stocks and bonds. There are balanced funds, or you could put together a selection of stock and bond funds (all within Vanguard, which has the lowest fees anywhere) to achieve a similar goal.

You're talking about conservative investing, which I've been doing for the last 25 years. It took me much less time to recover after the drops than it did the people who were 100% invested in stock funds, or worse yet, individual stocks.

But that's just me

laurasdada

If it's stability ye seek, the stock market isn't for thee! I have no idea why I'm writing in "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" dialect...

Even if you've put your assets in an "Index" fund, in the short term, there is greater risk than other instruments. Unfortunately, in this financial climate (read: "Interest? Interest? We don't pay no stinkin' interest") it's tough to make a short term buck in simple (or complex?) investments. Bond funds? Normally less risk, but sooner or later, what goes down must go up (read: interest rates), inversely effecting the NAV of the bond fund. Individual bonds might be a better bet, be wary of ratings and tax consequences. Savings Bonds, TIPS, I bonds? I am not a bond, municipal bond wizard, however. Although I did buy Series EE Savings Bonds in the mid 80s, early 90s that paid quite a handsome minimum interest rate. Now, where did I put them?

I've reaped both the thrill of victory and agony of defeat by being heavily invested in the Stock Market. But, over the long haul, I believe that I've had a chicken dinner (read: Winner! Winner!). Small potato's (Dan Quayle spell check, please...) compared to most of the folks here, but with a little luck I will be able to consider retirement at 80.

Basically, if this is money you will "need" in less than a few years, please ensure you understand what you're investing in and the risk involved. Once you do, please explain it to me!

gagrice

Actually 5% is realistic. The state of CA pension fund based their earnings on 7.5-8% and last I read only made about 2%, We have a Jackson annuity that pays 5% and guarantees the original investment to the heirs. We are still trying to figure out how they do it. The checks come in like clockwork.